Buck Brief - Ryan Girdusky

to you, mister Ryan, good to see you. Explain OURFK Junior. What is going on? Explain this to me? Is he going to take more votes from Biden or from Trump? Is he getting on the ballots? What the heck's with this VP thing? So just like make this make sense? Please?

in Utah. He says he has enough signatures and his pack has enough signatures for other states like Nevada, Georgia, New Hampshire, Oregon, in a couple few other states, but there's there's a lot of legal challenges of whether or not his pack can get signatures for him as a campaign. They're really unsure about that. So we'll see where he lands with his With this woman as his VP, she

has an estimated billion dollars from her divorce. They have money to sit there and fight every legal challenge and try to get on the ballot in every single state. But as of right now, it's one state with a possible I think seven others. The Cornell West, by the way, is on four states, so Cornell West is on actually more states right now than than RFK Jr. What is the phenomena RFK Junior. He does have a hopeful message his response to the State of the Union, which is

a nine minute video. If you've evern't seen it, it's really good, Like it's really, really really good. It's not completely accurate. He talks about how his uncle, when he left the presidency and was assassinated, left the country in peace and prosperity. He failed to mention the Vietnam War. But that's fine, that's okay. Everyone's kind of seeing through rose colored glasses. I think the VP pick, I think it's interesting for two reasons. I think with the VP pick,

whatever her name is, I totally forgot it. Actually, pick Shanahan is her last thing. Yeah, with Shanahan, it's definitely looking more like a center left campaign than a center right campaign, because that's what he was trying to do. He was trying to kind of forge that middle ground. And she's talking about you know, chronic diseases and a lot of social justice stuff. She's not going to attract

a lot of right wingers to her cause. I think the fact that she's like this Asian vegan woman from California is definitely not the same thing as if you would have picked that form of baseball player like that would have been a much different vibe than than you know, than than who he than Shanahan. I think she was a pick primarily for her money, although they probably agree ideologically.

Her announcement speech was a little like a Ted talk more than you know, just a speech, a presidential speech.

but it's a niche issue. And if they're doing Native American tribal dances and reparations for slavery, there's only one kind of voter that really attracts, and that's either black voters who like the Kennedy brand or very very very liberal white voters.

he's running because he'll take more Biden votes. Are let's say that he gets on, meaning RFK Junior, a bunch of different like twenty different states, and so he's on you know, at least three or four important swing states, right, let's say that that happens, or even just three or four important swing states, forget about the overall number. Are we very highly confident based on what we can see in the data that he will take more Biden than Trump votes or is that very much still TBD?

of these states that will move the whole election. And I think they know that, and RFK nationally, she'll probably get somewhere between two and five percent of the vote at the current rate he's that, I imagine, I mean, the independent vote is always higher in the end of the year and always gets lower as the year goes on, So that I think is really problematic for his candidacy.

But if he's able to get on and really kind of be an issues candidate that talks about things that people care about, I think you'll either A see I didn't start trying to capitalize on his issues. I think that Cornell West is going to run completely on a pro Hamas pro Palestine thing, and he's going to try to get those Palestine voters for his campaign. I think that RFK Junior really cares with healthcare a lot and chronic disease, and it's very what he's saying is not wrong.

I mean, it is not wrong that we are in a very sick and morbally obese country. I just think that when you're talking about what pesticides are being used and what, you know, what did she talk about she says something.

He doesn't even remind me of his father and uncle. I think that he gives off. I think he gives off much more of a left wing coastal you know, elite. I mean, for crying aloud. You know, he's the godfather of Glenn Close's daughter and his ex wife was on Curby your enthusiasm. This is not a man or his current wife rather was on Curby ruthuism. It's not a man who's really moving into Michigan and marching in Mississippi for the poverty strikes with MLK like his dad did.

This is somebody who is very much giving the sense that he is a very early person. But there's a lot of disenfranchised voters on all sides who don't like Trump and who don't like Biden, who will be probably casting a valid for him out of protest, and maybe he'll get a few issues voters, and that's what really matters, if he can pick up like the whole Hamas is a genocidal thing, or Biden is too old voters and who knows.

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and live callers versus just internet poles. They are They show Trump with about a one point five to two to two and a half percent of a national advantage, which is extremely large, largest he's ever had in his entire all three candidacies online polls or lower lower value polls that showed Biden actually edging Trump out for the

very first time in six or seven months. The national election electorate in twenty twenty two was a two point Republican majority, and Republicans got a bare minimum of the popular vote. If it is, oh, I'm sorry, of the House in twenty twenty two. If it is, if it's looking like those hyperpency polls are right and Trump is not gonna win but win the popular vote, Republicans are still not going to win the House by that much.

You're talking about probably you know, ten to fifteen seat majority at the very very most, just because a lot of states have been jerrymandered six ways from Sunday.

they have won. They have none. In North Carolina they have well're going to pick up the three in North Carolina. Besides that they're done. Virginia has one, West Virginia zero, Ohio has two. Indiana maybe has won. There's not many though, everywhere where it's going to matter. Where the where it's going to matter if Republicans win is in the blue state Republicans. There are I think fourteen Republicans right in Africa because of George Sanders leaving. Maybe there's maybe it's

thirteen thirteen Republicans who are in Biden districts. If those thirteen Republicans can hold on and they can pick up the few Democrats who are in Trump districts, then they'll hold on. But it's those thirteen Biden Republicans are what really matter.

been very good for Trump. The Maris poles in Texas and in it was North Carolina and Arizona, and the Des Moines registered pole in Iowa all very very well, well sourced, high quality polling, all were very very good for Trump.

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what's the plan? Is it just democracies and peril? Trump is hitler, and uh, they're not gonna let you get abortions all nine months of a pregnancy like it. It just feels like that can't be.

They're scaring the normies the Alabama IVF case for example. All of these little things say to moderate voters who are let's say, double haters. Double haters are really who deicizes this election and people who hate both trum Biden and Trump. Back last year, back when I was very pessimistic, that's when the Wall Street Journal for Brizio Lepole said that the double haters were voting for Biden by fifty points.

The most recent poll, I think it was the Maris Texas poll said that they were voting now for Biden by five points. Trump had closed the gap with people who hate both Trump and Biden. And if you look at the five thirty eight average. This is the first time that Biden's approval r's are actually worse than Trump's. If you, I think they they are a disasbrating the divide and they get back those people by Satana saying he really is a rec lose. He's really, you know,

he's really he's going to prison. He's got all these trials, he you know, all this money. He can't be trusted. Look at all of his former aids who hate him. Now, why would you vote for this chaos? And I think them selling camp is the message over Biden nomic. They're dropped Biden. I don't know if you said the access to that came out Accio's report having times Biden has said Biden nominal so the last few months and it's gone from like eighteen times in a month to zero.

He doesn't speak about that at all anymore. That messaging failed. People personally don't feel good about the economy every time they go to the grocery store. Inflation is still higher than what people would like it to be, and you have high interest rates at the home mortgages where people feel like they can't buy their first home. Gaza has definitely splintered a portion and a fraction of the Democratic Party.

The Gallup poll show that a majority of Democrats support Gaza over Israel, and that's definitely splinting over some Arab There's a lot of things going wrong for him. So sometimes you are unified by the people as you hate in common. Certainly, in twenty sixteen, Trump won a lot of people who just could not bring themselves to allow Hillary Cling to be president. That hatred for Hillary was

enough to unite people who didn't like Trump. Biden is hoping that that happens again, that the hatred for Trump is so strong, it's strong enough for strong enough to elect to re elect him despite everything going.

and I was like, okay, cool. That was the last eightie Sedgwick, who's that? Yeah? Don't talk about culture, Buck, don't talk about culture.