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Welcome to the Buck Brief. Our friend Ned Ryan in the mix right now. He's the founder and CEO of American Majority.
Ned.
Always good to see you, man, Thanks for being here.
Yeah, absolutely good to be with you. Buck.
So I know you amidst all of the oh my gosh, what's going to happen? And Trump is facing all these trials, you seem to be pretty confident that not only will they fail to derail Trump legally, but that also the public reaction to this might be more favorable to Trump than the Democrats realize. Tell me more.
Yeah, so it really started dawning on me. I'll share a little bit of an incident that took place. I was golfing with my father in law, who not really political, I would argue, not really a big fan of Trump's. As we were golfing, he said, do you know, it's really started to dawn on me? So I would consider him Buck a normy, right, a normy. He doesn't really
follow politics. He votes, He's a pretty frequent voter. Not the biggest fan of Trump, but all of a sudden it's dawning on him that what's taking place with all of these different lawsuits and charges being brought against Trump, there's no real basis to this. This is political lawfare. The basis of this is politics, trying to take out Biden's chief political opponent. And so he was sharing with me this conversation and more and more, I've been proposing
a theory. There are a lot of fatalists out there that say one of these cases going to bring down Trump, right, that it's going to take him down, take him off the ballot, he will not be the nominee. I have proposed a theory that people need to look at the flip side of the coin and realize there might be a real benefit for Trump here when it breaks on the other normies out there that areld be voting in the fall elections. This is political lawfare. And I'm starting
to see my theory play out pretty well. I think the Color out of case from the Supreme Court last week, I think it might go down nine to nothing.
Buck.
I don't think that it will. Obviously it's not gonna win, but I think it will be a definitive rebuke of Colorado. So there's one case gone, the Fanny Willis case in Georgia. I think that's imploding in front of our eyes in real time as we watch all this start to collapse.
I think I think Fannie Willis thinks to Fannie Willis case is falling apart. I mean, I don't think that that's much up for debate.
Yeah, and now we're starting to see reports coming out of from Breitbart that Bragg, Willis, and Smith we're all meeting with the White House to coordinate their lawsuits against Trump. As that starts to break into the public conscience, they're gonna it's going to be more and more people realizing, Yeah, there was no basis for this. I mean, this is literally a campaign tactic of the Biden White House to take out their chief political opponent, but legal basis to it.
There really is no legal basis to anything that is taking place. And I think we're going to see more and more of these cases to fall apart as more pressure is put on them as we move into the spring and summer, and again during the summer, people going to go they're trying to take out chief political opponent
with an abuse of the legal system. We're going to be voting for Trump, and I think you're going to see a surge surge for Trump in the spring and summer going into the rn C and DNC conventions.
I like how you're thinking on this one. Do you see any any alarms going off for the people who pay attention to races and know what's happening in swing you know, swing district, Swing States. This third congressional in Long Island that we lost, I think there's a case you made that it just wasn't a strong candidate for the Santos seat. I know there'll be another election soon on this one, but you know, they they ran Trump, democracy stuff, abortion stuff, and a candidate who was, oh, yeah,
I want to secure the border, right. I mean, all of a sudden, Democrats are starting to run people. Does that concern you that that may be the approach they take in a more national level.
Absolutely, on the abortion issue. I mean I saw a play out in Virginia in our last year's elections, and a lot of Republicans ran away from the issue. If they had confronted it, those that did they won and what were very very narrow state legislative elections in Virginia.
But you can't fight something with nothing, and I think Republicans have better start figuring out how they're going to be taking This abortion issue had on Glenn Youngkin here in Virginia went right at it buck and he proposed a fifteen week ban exceptions for the life of the mother, rape and incest. And it was actually, in what I consider a purple state, a pretty solid issue for Glenn Youngkin. So any Republicans that were running for the state legislature
last year did pretty well. Those that ran away a lot of them lost. But my takeaway from this special election that just happened in New York was this, again some of the functional aspects of the elections in which Democrats got out and voted early, they voted by mail, and guess what happened on election day in some parts
of district eight inches of snow. And I commented in a tweet or on X whatever we call it these days the day after this to me is another lesson for Republicans that they better learn coming into the fall elections.
Vote early.
If you don't want to vote by mail, go vote in person early before election day. Again, there's so many unforeseen things happen like a snowstorm on election day. Let's get our votes in. And that's one of the things I'm really really working out. But that gotten some good news. We're going to get some good funding for American Majority Action.
We are going to be doing absentee ballot generation, absentee ballot chase, and some key presidential battleground states to really get Republicans to understand we've got to get eighty plus percent of those absentee ballots in. Vote early, get your vote in, thank it, do not wait until election day. Let's start really getting that into our mindset. And if we can do that, if we can get to eighty plus percent of absentee ballots coming in, I like our chances.
But I will point out one thing that's a concern to me. I know there's some lawsuits that are fighting this. We have to look at Arizona. There's an issue in which non citizens are getting ballots for federal elections. The Left's not going to sit there and go, oh gosh, you know, we've got a Grand Paul dementia in the White House. You know, we're all these different things. Trump's
going to win. Oh well, now, They're going to be playing all sorts of games, and I think it's incummon upon Republicans to be making sure we stay ahead of the curve this time, change our tactics, but be on top of the legal law fair in regards of how these elections are being held, especially in the presidential background states.
I totally agree. So I'm glad that someone's watching this who has the ear ears of people that are in Trump's orbit, including Trump himself, because I believe, very strongly ned this is going to be a tight battle no matter what who is. People argue with me about, oh, but Biden. So I'm like, I don't care how old Biden is. I don't care how decrepit he is. They they show up on election day with you know, ninety seven percent of what they need to win, you know, I mean, this is the problem.
But but I would say this book, it's because it's not really about persuading voters anymore. It's how many ballots are in the universe that they've created that they can actually collect. It has nothing to do with persuasion. It has how many ballots are you going are you going to collect?
Well?
The vote machinery basically right, it's it's understanding exactly.
So yeah, I mean you can put up a vegetable which quite frankly twenty two and they won, right, So it's not even necessary about the quality of the cannon. And I keep on reminding people, Yeah, some of these polls look really good Trump versus Biden. I consider them a mirage because when push comes to shove, it's he's not winning North Carolina by eight points, He's not going to win Arizona by five. You know, some of these numbers are going to shrink and it's going to get
much tighter. We better have our functional aspect of collecting ballots in place, clicking on all cylinders, because you know they will.
Yeah. Look, then we'll come back into this in a second. I want to ask you how you think things are looking on the on the Senate side. This couldn't come at a better time in our society. I'm talking about Patriot defender. As you know, our rights are under attack these days, and people can be targeted for political reasons. Wokeness if you will comes for them, and it can be very expensive. You can lose your job, you can have all kinds of financial problems that come from this,
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member as well. I believe in Patriot Defender patriot defender dot com. We'll cover what others won't to protect you your livelihood and your rights. Ned how are we looking for the Senate?
I'm optimistic, I am.
I mean you look at the pickup opportunities in Montana, West Virginia, Ohio. You know, I think, you know, I even think Hogan in Maryland, Governor Hogan, who I'm not a fan of it all, but he's running for the Senate in Maryland.
Can I ask you this? And I'm not trying to get your new troubles and Tho's a little controversy about this in some other places recently, with some folks saying things, is Hogan the best we can hope for in Maryland?
Though?
I mean, I feel like Maryland is a communist state. So are we going to do better than the weakest Republican of all Republicans? I don't think so.
No.
I mean, I'll share a little bit of a story. When my dad was in the House, one of his colleagues was Chris Shayes out of I believe it was Connecticut five. I liked Chrischaes. Chris Shayes was a very nice gentleman. I would say we probably got sixty maybe seventy percent of the vote that we wanted out of him. And guess what, I was great with that because that he was the most conservative member you were going to get out of that part of the country. I think
the same is true with Larry Hogan. Larry Hogan gives Republicans the best shot. He's already won statewide multiple times to actually pick up a Senate seat. Is he going to be a conservative rock star? Not even close. Are we probably going to get fifty sixty to seventy percent of what we want out of him? Yes, which is sixty seventy percent of what we'd get a better than we'd have a Democrat. So I think people need to
be realistic. Where you're in a deep red state, you go for the most conservative person that can win the general. When you're in a blue state like Maryland, you take the best you can and it's going to be an improvement on any Democrat that would otherwise represent Maryland in the Senate.
So how are you.
Feeling about Do you know Kerry Lake? Do you know Kerry a bit?
I do. I do very well, But I've mattered, We've talked.
I'm not asking a personal question. I'm just wondering, you know, I want to see if you feel like, oh, I'm super close with Kerry's so I can't Is she gonna win this Arizona Senate seat?
If Cinema runs.
If Cinema runs as the independent, and you've got a Democrat, Republican, and Independent in the race, and it really only takes forty to forty two percent of the vote to win, Cary Lake can win if Kris if Kirsten Cinema decides that she's dropping out and obviously endorses the Democrat because she essentially is a Democrat. No, there's no way, there's no way that Cary Lake can win that. And I've got real concerns about the damage or impact it might have on Trump in Arizona.
But if it's a three way race.
In which Cinema decides I'm running, I've raised enough money to be a legitimate, solid, you know, third party contender. You could you could win that race with forty forty two percent of the vote and carry Lake can pull that vote percentage off.
She could do that.
But I have to tell you, Buck, of all the pick up opportunities that Republicans have in the Senate this year, you kind of rank them in order of best chance where you're going to get the you know, the best opportunity to pick up races. I could maybe make an argument that Arizona's fifth on the list for the big money like the NRSC and all these other people are
going to put significant funds into these pickup races. So I would argue one of the big problems that Kerry Lake is going to have is the outside money making significant investments into the state. I just don't see it happening right now.
And what about Montana against Tester the Democrat incumbent there, I mean Rosendale. Yeah, yeah, you think we can pull that one off?
I do. I mean, he's a known quantity. It can happen.
Tester's a lot stronger than people think he is, which is very frustrating because he basically rubber stams anything that Chuck Schumer does.
He does not fit.
They get a Chuck Schumer Democrat in Montana. You know, that's the fundamentally the question is it just Bozeman? Is that big now? In terms of population?
Yeah? Yeah, I mean you've got to understand the blue state migration into some of these red states. It's problematic, it really is. And Tester is able to pull off this stick where I'm all for Montana, I represent you all this stuff, and he goes back to DC and votes in lockstep with Chuck Schumer. But never underestimate the power of incumbency, right, the power of incumbency. He's been there, what two terms is he going for a third time?
I believe power of incumbency is very hard to beat Buck and that, you know, I think we've got a real shot at taking him out, But never underestimate that power of incumbency and his name, ID and everything across the state, and the fact that Chuck Schumer and national Democrats are going to be plowing a ton of money into that race to prop him up. So I think it's gonna be It's definitely one of the top three
pickup opportunities for Republicans. But on the other side, how good a campaign is going to be run against him? So there's some dynamics that still need to play out, and there'll be decisions made I think on some funding, you know, coming into late summer early falls to how serious a pickup opportunity is. We'll see where the polls lead and how the campaigns are run.
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Sure, is that what you want to hear?
Many I'm worried too, because the people I know who know Pennsylvania say that it's a blue state with a lot of red residents living in it. You know what I mean that effectively, the machinery of the Democrat Party is so much better than the Republican machinery there that you're you're starting out like five points. Even if you think you're ahead, you're five points behind.
I joked that Pennsylvania is you know, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh massive blue. You know, bastions in between is basically northern Alabama. The problem being that the Philadelphia machine and a little bit behind at the Pittsburgh machine just overwhelms, you know, that central part of the state. I just I mean, McCormick, sure is he probably a good fit for the state. Sure can he win on a good night?
Maybe?
I have not looked at Pennsylvania. I've done electoral maps, you know, for the for the presidential race. I have not put Trump down as winning Pennsylvania. And he can still win. I mean, I've done a map, and you don't need to win Pennsylvania. I'm I'm skeptical that we are going to win either the presidential or at the center race in Pennsylvania this year.
But who knows?
What's what are the flips from twenty twenty that you feel most confident about right now.
I mean, listen, Arizona.
Despite my concerns about the non citizens getting federal ballots, you have to understand, there've been people doing really good voter registration for Republicans down there. It's about they've added about sixty seven thousand, fifty seven thousand registered Republicans, so now it's two hundred and seven thousand registered Republican advantage
over Democrats. You know, a third of the state is registered is independents, so you've added a significant pool of new Republican voters since twenty twenty two.
So I like that.
We've been doing some data work. There's one hundred and seventy four thousand Republicans still registered that did not vote in the twenty twenty two elections that have not gotten an absentee bouots. So you look at those numbers and go, you know, we put the right investment, the right work into Arizona. I like that Nevada, Nevada. I look at that they were two hundred thousand ballots in Clark County alone, which is Las Vegas, between Republicans and the Independent Conservative
Party that were not returned. In twenty twenty two. So that's a target rich environment. You know, I feel good about our chances in Wisconsin. There are a lot of people that need to get an absentee ballot that are Hunter's pro Second Amendment, that have not really been as engaged.
As they should be.
And again it's a state that Trump only lost by twenty thousand votes one in twenty sixteen, only lost by twenty thousand in twenty twenty. North Carolina I feel good about. I think we're going to have a really strong effort to hold that state.
Georgia.
I have to tell you Georgia to me, I do not put together a map that doesn't include Georgia going to Trump. We have to win Georgia. And you know, there's some efforts going on in that state that I like. There's more work that needs to be done inside of Georgia, but those are the states I'm looking at it. If Trump can take all those states, hold North Carolina, and get Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona, Yeah, it can be done. The numbers show that it can be done.
Who's Trump's VP going to be?
I have no idea. I really don't.
I I was honesteak.
I was a big fan of Kim Reynolds, governor of Byowa. I don't think she did herself any favors. I get it that she liked the Santis fine, fair enough, you know. I think she really kind of was just put it mildly irritated Trump. But I would love to have seen her be the VP for Trump. I don't know. I've heard Carson's name, Ben Carson's name thrown out there. I even saw jad Vance's name throw up, but I have not I have no insider knowledge on who who is going to be.
Do you have any crazy prediction that you feel confident about between now and the end of the year and the world of politics, anything that you wanner throw out there? This is the good news. Ned are you going to replay this if you're right? So you can just it is a free shot, like anything you think could happen.
Ah, gosh, Okay, here we go. I'll make a prediction. Republicans keep and add to their majority in the House, we take back the Senate more convincingly than people think we will, and Trump wins the White House to give us the trifecta.
Coming into January of twenty twenty five.
All right, I like it. I like where your head is on this one. My friend Ned Ryan, future White House Chief of Staff, you heard it here first, Ned Ryan, everybody, thank you for hanging out. Thanks for work you do an American majority. We'll see you soon, buddy.
I appreciate it. Thanks, Bun