Buck Brief - Dovid Efune

patriot missile batteries. Obviously the participation of quite a few allies in the region, including Arab states by the way, that are see Iran equally as an adversary in the

way that that the Israelis do. Iran, on the other hand, has no missile defenses whatsoever, and the Israelis have some quite potent ballistic missiles as well, Jericho missiles, and they could inflict a great deal of damage, which is why up until now, Iran has taken the approach of working through proxies and has sort of developed what it caused, this ring of fire of many proxy states surrounding the Jewish state with his ball on the south of Lebanon

and branches of his bowl in the south of Syria, and then of course Hamas and Islamic Jihad and Gaza. Obviously that reports lately that Iran is also working to de stabilize Jordan, which is on another one of the borders, and Huthi's and Yemen have seen missiles flying towards it and towards Israel from the Red Sea angle. So it was unusual, i would say, at least from my end,

to see the Iranians enter directly into conflict. Seemed like they were trying to make a point, and I would suspect that they were comfortable doing so because they were confident on the outside that the international community, led by the United States, would really lean on Israel into tempering its response, which of course is exactly what we've seen happen in the aftermath.

an act of war. I mean, not to make it sound like a minor thing it's not, but that this was for the domestic political optics of we're not going to just let our brothers in Gaza suffer while doing nothing. So they do this, which doesn't really do anything other than make Iran look like it's pretty militarily impotent. Is that How do you view that assessment? I feel like that was pretty common.

So if that was the intention, I don't think they'd have had to have had to throw quite quite the barrage that that they had. I mean, they they they've done that in the past, and it doesn't look like this. Let's put it that way. When you when you send sort of three hundred projectiles over, including some pretty advanced missiles and different types of missiles and waves, what it looks like to me is as if they're trying to overwhelm Israeli air defenses, which means that their intention was

that some of these missiles would get through. And of course some of them carry massive payloads, so you know, you only need one or two to land to cause you know, really significant damage. So I don't think it was their intention just to sort of make a loud noise. I think their intention was that some of these missiles would hit their mark and it would draw as weel into into a broader conflict. And they were surprised I think by the potency of Israel's defenses, but also the

speed with which as well was able to mobilize. It's a line in the region which which were actually crucial into into preventing this baroja. I think without the United States participation in some allies in the region, it would have been hard for Israel to contain this this barranch of this extent on on its own.

for example the Jordanians, but others. There are other reports that even other regional allies were you know, helping with early warning on this, like who was involved in subverting this strike by the Iranians on Israel.

the region. It's belligerents in the region with one hand, while also sustaining in fueling it with the other hand. You know, we are fueling the fire and then wondering why the hell it's hot. You know, that's really what's going on here. I mean, the amount of funds that the Biden administration has allowed to flow to the Iranians indirectly, yes, but funds that the regime would not have had access

to otherwise. In the end of the day, there are dozens and dozens of actors and allies in the region very happy to see the Iranians gone and dealt with. I mean, I posted this on Twitter around the time of the strike that ending the regime in Tehran, regime change in Tehran, or ending the Ayatola regime in Tehran really is a war to end all Mid East wars. I mean the effects that it has. It would strangle the occupation in southern Lebanon and in the Syrian Golan.

It would obviously boost our allies like the Kurds and others in northern Iraqi. You know, most of Iraq is now also controlled by Iranian allies, both on the ground and in politics. It would basically end the civil war and Yemen. It would stabilize Jordan. It would bring safety to the Red Sea shipping lanes, which of course is

an interest in many international community. It would weaken the Taliban, who of course are major human rights violators and now cultivating you know, god knows what terror basis and new Al Qaeda training camps in Afghanistan. The Amtis, the Saudis and Moroccans, the Egyptians, the Bahraini and most of all the people of Iran. The people of Iran would all welcome an initiative to remove this, to remove this regime.

I mean, you have millions of people in Iran who would like to see Israel strike Iranian targets, IRGC targets, Islamic regime targets who they see as their primary enemy. So, you know, if you want to solve the issue, for a long time, we've kind of just been dancing around it. You know, a fight with Hamasa, fight with hasbella fight with the who theser, you know, bombing, you know, some of the hoothy capacity in Yemen to free up the shipping lanes, or this or that or that, or this

attack boat or that attack boat. You know, it all comes from Tehran. It all comes from the Islamic regime. You solve that problem and you bring yourself one hundred steps closer to peace in the Middle East.

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eight three three nine nine five gold. That's eight three three nine nine five gold eight three three nine nine five gold. All right, David D. Biden administration at this point. I mean, the relationship with net Niyahu. Can we speak about that for a minute, because it seems to me

like Biden wants to have it both ways. He wants to say I'm the great ally of Israel, like presidents before me have been, at least some of them, but also I'm going to dictate what you can do to defend your own people in a moment of crisis, like what's going on.

was there when it happened. It was Condoleeza Rice that insisted that Hamas be allowed to run in the two thousand and seven elections that shortly followed in Gaza that brought Hamas to power. So it is usual part for the course that American administrations medal in Israel's business. I think Trump, the Trump administration genuinely was the only administration that said, listen, you guys know what your interests are, so why don't you tell us what you think needs

to be done and will and will be supportive. That was by far the anomaly. Certainly, the democratic administrations have have leaned even further, even stronger. And you know, especially a president like Joe Biden, who, at least in my understanding, is not a person that is familiar with the concept of principle. He's a he's a political animal, in in, in, in, in the in the very worst connotations of correctly, he so, you know, when when the world is sort of sympathetic

with Israel, so he'll say the right thing. If he sees a political disadvantage in doing so, he'll turn in a heartbeat. You know. He doesn't have any ideals that he sticks to and that he'll stand by when they go when they going, but gets tough and then he

sort of flips back. You know when when when when the wind when the wind changes again, and I think you know, sometimes you know, the end of the day, the the the the thing to understand about the relationship with Nyahu and the pressure that's being applied on Nahu that both bide And and Chuck Schuman others in the Democratic Party think they can play this clever game where their opposition us He's execute executing now that it feels

are in its best interest for self defense. Can he positioned as an opposition to Nittanyahu and his government and his right wing government and some of the right wing partners in his government. But the truth is that the policies that the Israeli government is executing right now, our policies are supported by an overwhelming majority of the Israeli of the Israeli public, and it is a national unity government formed together with one of benjaminia Who's staunchest opponents,

which is Benny Gantz. So this idea that it's all about knit Nyahu is nonsense. He is executing on what the Israeli people want and need and knows fundamental for their security. And you know, this business of of sort of positioning him is as crazy and out of lockstep with the interests of the Israeli people. That's just not in line with the reality, not even close.

Court and the constitution is there. Can you give us a sixty second version of what was going on there, just because it's still Sometimes it gets talked about because the storyline now is net Yahoo is on the ropes, this court issue the constitution in Israel, and then October seventh happens and they unite behind him in almost Churchilean fashion. He steps up, you know what, well, what's the back.

and ages. In short, the main bullet point is that the judge itself, you know, as opposed to be in this country, the administration selects new Supreme Court justices, but in Israel there is a panel that selects the new Supreme Court justices, and the current Supreme Court justices have the capacity to veto new Supreme Court justices. You know, there needs to there's a minimum threshold that needs to be met. So and they include three of the current

Supreme Court justices. So imagine a scenario like this where the majority of the court is Republican or democratic, conservative or liberal, and then any new appointment needs to be approved by the majority. Right, So you're not going to have, you know, an independent court. It's just going to stay conservative or liberal forever. Right. So that's the scenario that they've been dealing with in Israel for a long time.

It's basically a permanently liberal Supreme Court. And you know, that's a normal debate in democracy as to whether you know, it's too much power and other changes you're going you're going to make to the power that the Supreme Court has. I mean, there's an argument that you know, over here you have three branches. In Israel, you don't have three branches. The legislative and the executive are very much into twine.

So maybe you need a more powerful Supreme Court. But this is part of the negotiation that's happening in democracy. I think the majority of people in the country support some changes and you know, the country was in the process of figuring out what those changes are. So you know, there were bills that were proposed, and then there was a lot of pushback, and ultimately that's how democracy works.

If you're going to make laws that people don't agree with, you'll get voted out and the next people will will switch them back. So there was a lot of sort of jumping up and down and screaming and shouting. But I don't think it was it was anything unusual in the sense that, you know, we have these debates in this country all the time. As Winston Churchill famously said, you know, democracy is the worst form of government besides

for all the others. It's a messy business, you know, And that's what we were seeing play out in Israel. It's a real democracy, representative democracy, and it's as messy as a good or as a good, you know, functioning democracy should be.

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That's twenty twenty four ai stock dot Com paid for by Shaking Analytics Dovid I would love to think that the American Jewish community is going to recognize both the place of really virulent anti Semitism on the left in America. We really have a better understanding of it now after October seventh, and see that the Democrat Party both gives that some degree of safe harbor and can't be trusted when the going gets a little tough politically to support Israel.

That may have an effect, but I worry that other issues, or perhaps just the propaganda machinery will cloud things. What do you what do you make of this?

So the Jewish community is divided in a similar way, and you know demographically. What's interesting for people to understand is that these two segments of the Jewish community are headed in opposite directions. The liberal wing of the Jewish community is in decline, significantly in decline, and the more orthodox wing of the Jewish community is one of the fastest growing Jewish populations or fastest growing populations in the

United States. The other thing to keep in mind is that, you know, voting shifts in terms of demographic populations typically take generations. You know you have, and you know, that's certainly the case of the Jewish community as an immigrant community. Initially, as an immigrant community, the Democratic Party was always seen as more friendly to immigrants. And I think that's kind of the assumption for Latinos and you know, other minority

groups that the Democratic Party is more friendly. But you know, like with the Italians and other and Irish and other immigrant groups, as they become more entrenched and as they become more comfortable in the country and start to think about other things, like you know, it's not just about foodstamps, it's about private property, and wealth grows and their success grows, you know, that's when you see voting patterns start to evolve.

So I think in that sense, when people think about the Jewish vote or other population segments and how they vote. You know, you want to think about it not from election to election, but from generation to generation in terms of how these patterns evolve. Having said that, I would say that I think there's a significant misread in the Democratic Party of where the Jewish population is, where the

Jewish public is. You know, certainly the events of October seventh and there aftermath have left a lot of folks in the Jewish community leaving a feeling very unsettled. And you're seeing folks that typically would be on the more liberals expressing a lot of concern. In fact, I don't know if you saw this. It was kind of circulating on the web the other day on Twitter, but there's a rabbi called Amiel Hershoe's rabbi at a very famous

liberal synagogue in New York, the Stephen Whisse Synagogue. He gave a lecture or a sermon on Saturday, you know, at the Shabbad service, and he says to the Democrats, he said, do not take American Jews for granted. Be careful. These are his words. The result of the upcoming elections do not only depend on Michigan, and there are quite a few swing states where the Jewish population is much larger than the margin of victory that Joe Biden had

last time. And those include Pennsylvania, where the Jewish population outweighs the Muslim population by about four to one. That's nineteen electoral points. Michigan is only ten electoral points. Obviously, Florida, I don't know if you still consider it a swing state,

but the Jewish vote there is very significant. Arizona, You've got about one hundred thousand Jews, Ohio about one hundred thousand Jews, orderly about one hundred thousand Jews, you know, so North Carolina, I don't think it's that many, but you know, it's a significant population. So you know, they can be a very significant factor in this election, and I think the Democrats are misreading it. What are misreading

kind of where the Jewish community is at. But one other point that I think is worth making is the role of RFK might have on this point. The lowest percentage of the Jewish vote that any Democratic candidate received in the last one hundred years was in nineteen eighty election where Jimmy Carter ran against Ronald Reagan. Carter received and Carter was perceived as being quite unfriendly towards Israel. He received only forty five percent of the Jewish vote.

Reagan received thirty nine percent of the Jewish vote. But what a lot of people don't remember was that it was actually a third party candidate called John Anderson who was running at the time, and he received fifteen percent of the descent of the national vote. So you may have a similar scenario here where folks that are really unhappy with Joe Biden but aren't quite ready to pull the trigger for Trump are going to head in the direction of RFK. And I actually interviewed him about it

about it last week. We had an exclusive story about it for The Sun, and he, you know, he maintained that this wasn't an electoral advantage of political advantage. He was taking the position at support him of Israel on principle. But I think, you know, I don't know how closely he's looked at the Jewish vote, and obviously, you know, there's a lot that you discover once people get into

the voting booths. I think there is a decent chance that Biden will be surprised at how low his support in the Jewish community is, and I don't know how much it's going to go for Donald Trump if it's going to be more than the typical thirty percent, maybe slightly more, but I wouldn't be surprised if you have a nice chunk of the Jewish vote that actually goes for RFK.

to talk to you. My FAMI will talk soon.