¶ Real Estate Market Trends and Insights
Rates were low for a long period of time . Prices were going up for a long period of time . So everybody coming into the market knew one , the rates are low . Two , you better jump in before the price is up next week . Yep .
From real estate to real life and everything in between the Brad .
Wiseman Show and now your host , brad Wiseman . All right , we're back , we're back , we're back . Hopefully you're back too . Hopefully somebody's watching this damn show . What do you think , hugo ? I hope so too I hope so , geez , otherwise it's going to be kind of a waste of our time , I think . But we got a new supply of our Magic Mind here .
We got our 8-Ball here . We're doing well , right , hugo ball here .
We're doing well , right , Hugo , that's right that's right .
I tell you that much . That's right . So that shirt is freaking bright dude , I'll tell you I need sunglasses .
Wear your sunglasses .
That's unbelievable . That is quite a shirt . So Hugo's shirt has a volume or no , has a dimmer on the back . There's a dimmer on the back of it that you actually can turn it down a little bit , right . Obviously it's on bright . Yeah , all right , now , that's newcastle , that's , that's , that's they do . They make you wear those shirts so you don't get hit .
And when you're landscaping , you don't get hurt or all that stuff , right safety yeah , we're gonna have somebody from newcastle on here .
We're gonna have brad stevenson will be on coming up soon . Uh , in several weeks from now . Today , we have pete heim . Hey , we do . Yes , we do . You know , he's such a regular that we really don't even give a rip to invite him , or to even introduce him . Well , I just show up , yeah , he just shows up like a bad penny . It's unbelievable , Unbelievable .
All right , so let's get down to some stuff here with real estate , because that's what we're here for . Yeah , let's do it . One of the things that stuck out for me and I'm just going to go through this real quick was interesting . It says over one-third of homeowners would be motivated to move with rates under 6% and we've talked about that , we did so .
It says rates less than 6% 35% of the people said they would do something . Rate less than 5% , another 30% and , what's funny , rate less than 3% , I think . It says which mortgage rate , if any , would you need to be comfortable ? Yeah , so selling a home this year ? They're saying that it need to be less than six percent yeah , that's good yeah , it's good .
35 said they would do something . Yeah , because they could get there . That means we'll be 35 busier . That's right . If it goes below six percent , exactly , and I think Hugo's gonna refi yeah right , I'm being waiting for it waiting for it . I know you have . I know you have , but this is an interesting stat . There's no rate that would make me comfortable .
42% .
No kidding , yeah , they're grumpy . Those are grumpy people , aren't they ? Yeah , they love their home . They love their home . Sure , that's okay .
All right , it's all right Okay .
Yeah , is the interest rate freeze that we're dealing with .
Yeah , yeah , yeah .
Because to move up into a more expensive home and doubling your interest rate it's kind of a double whammy .
It's not a fun thing to think about , yeah , so yeah , we understand that .
Yeah , we totally get it . But that's a good stat though , brad , it's 35% .
That's amazing . It's going to get busy .
There's a good chance that could come down this year .
Oh , I agree , and actually some of the stats say that . So what do you have ? And then we'll go back to what I have here .
So just some of the things that we should be watching moving forward . I mean , we're in the last quarter of the year here and I thought what's 2025 ? What are the some of the things we should be watching ? You know , I just I just made a list . Well , let's hear some of it . Well , the first thing is the political uncertainty now is over .
Yeah , thank goodness On the national line . Yeah , did you approve your message ? I approved . Okay , just checking , and I approved that message and I'm so glad , hugo , did you approve your message ? I'm so glad the ads have
¶ Impact of Current Economic Factors
stopped . Oh my God , oh that was crazy .
It's unbelievable , yeah . And you know , what's amazing is the amount of money that is spent on all those TV ads and radio commercials . So much money . It's unreal , it is unreal . And the thing is it gets to a point does that really become effective anymore ?
You know , isn't there a point you get to with any kind of advertising where it's the point of you'd get no return ? No , right , there's no return on that annoyance , because I turn the damn stations when it comes on .
Yeah , whether I didn't care who it was , it didn't matter if it was Trump or Kamala , right , and you know , it's like I didn't want to hear it , sure .
It's a pain in the ass to listen to . Well , I think they were going after this extremely small percentage of people . The independents yeah or uncertain .
You know , did you ever hear the saying a man convinced against his will is of the same opinion still , oh so when you have all this now , he's getting deep , he's getting profound , very profound . I know what are you gonna rub your head .
Something else gonna come out of there .
I'm calling the space martian oh , I see , okay , so you're one of those , you're connected with them . Okay , got it 51 .
It's my , it's my hometown got it , but so , so , so , but no , that they're trying to convince people against their will . Yeah , and it's like it's not going to happen . Yeah , if you believe one way and you're going to vote that way and you're going to believe this or vote this way , that's the way it goes .
Yeah , it's just , the return of investment seems so small . Yeah , it does , doesn't it ? Yeah ?
That margin seems so small . You know who really likes it though the media companies , and you know they're going in there and saying , oh you run this again . It's gonna get you more votes .
You know they're giving them so much and you and I feel about the media because they they're constantly quoting bad stats for us yeah , everything in our industry it's all .
It's all , yeah , yeah . Don't listen to the media , don't listen to me , listen to us , we know're doing .
We're awesome .
So the political uncertainty is over now . That was your point .
That is but coming into this year . 70 countries were going to have an election this year .
Wow .
So worldwide , there's some uncertainty there , yeah , and that might have to do with economies and dollar strength and things like that . So that's like an overall , like a macro economic thing instead of micro . So we got to watch that . Yes , yes , okay , not just so much us , it's going to be worldwide .
That's so interesting that there's that much turnover with leadership . Yeah , wow , I mean , 70 is pretty much .
That's a lot , yeah , yeah . And then we have our own like , with this new administration coming in in . What are the regulations going to look like ? What's the trades going to look like ? Corporate taxes , immigration , what's all that going to do ?
It's all going to affect everything in the financial realm , which is we're in that with mortgages and stuff like that .
So it's going to affect housing , it will .
Yeah , everything affects housing . Yep . Number two is high finance costs . Interest rates is one and that's the . Now remember we look at the 10 year treasury on that Yep All right . So remember , folks , it's not so much what the Fed comes out and says I'm going to drop it 0.35 .
It indirectly affects , it takes time , it affects the market as a whole , which then sometimes will affect the 10-year treasury Right and it'll come in , but not right away , right Yep Loan maturity deadlines . For commercial or residential . Yeah , that's what I'm scared of .
But this affects residential , though . Here $1.8 trillion in commercial loans mature by the end of 2026 . So that has to do with tenant retention and competition . They're going to be going like this right and so that's going to affect the economy as a whole . Another one is geopolitics and regional wars , these regional wars that are going on right now .
It affects , for investors , mostly investor risk Insurance costs . Insurance costs are rising . All these disasters .
You know something about the insurance . It's not just the disasters . I was talking to an insurance agent and I didn't even think about this until they said something . The other thing is replacement values .
Yeah , replacement values your own house has gone up .
Your own house has gone up . If your house has gone up 25% over the last three years , that all those replacement values have to come up , which means your policy goes up . That's right , you know .
And because so they have to cover their butt , because all of a sudden you know a place gets wiped out like from a hurricane and you might've had all these that are , and all these houses could be actually undervalued in the replacement value Exactly .
It's . Yeah , that's a big deal . You almost have to look at that . I mean cause the cost of going up . I mean , if my insurance company made an offer of what my house is insured for , I'd take it .
Yeah , right , right . You know what ?
want to replace it .
Yeah , absolutely yeah , so that's . But I think insurance you're going to still see creeping up . Oh .
I agree , yeah , but we got to watch that . These are things to watch . Six is affordability housing affordability and it's still , if this inventory stays low , prices are going to continue to go up , and that's one of the three things that we that we've got to watch . Also , over the last 15 years , rents have increased 45% .
That's crazy .
Right . So those are all affordability things . Number seven is AI . Ai optimizes processes that we deal with mostly , and still a lot inaccurate because it's still gathering information . We've got to watch how we rely on AI . It's a cool tool and it's really neat , but we've got to watch the accuracy of it .
Well , look at his estimate . I mean not to bust on that , but they're not really accurate accurate no , it's off .
Yeah , sustainability , which has to do with climate resiliency and regulations . Right um office conversions . We've been talking about this . That's going to be big , especially that 2026 .
If it starts creeping up on that 2026 time period where these are going to be coming due . That the one point , some trillion that you talked about , right , I mean I think you know we're not seeing the amount of people that they thought was going to start going back to the offices . People are fighting that they are Now .
If unemployment number starts to go in the wrong direction as far as people are unemployed , then that could change again , because then at that point the employer has more power , more say of where you're going to go to work . Exactly Right .
Let's put it that way Right now they are , yeah , they are , they're all full .
So therefore the employer goes oh , you're going to come , you're going to come back to the office . They're like no .
I'll find another job Right Exactly Well , that 10th , the 10th one that we're going to . We want to watch our price gap expectations on both sides of the seller side and buyer side . We're coming off of that . You know , hey , I'll offer 60 grand more on the purchase price and 18 offers being offered and stuff like that .
And then buyers now unrealistic and maybe thinking , well , they can offer , you know , 80% of a list price and stuff like that . So there's this gap right now , Big gap .
That we got to watch . Well , and it's because you know there , for a while , the country was heading in the same direction at the same time , Right ? So almost every market was going up .
¶ Local Real Estate Market Insights
When you start heading to a more balanced market , it is very localized . So what happens is the media is always going to report what is the new shiny object , which would be oh , the market's plummeting because they're looking at New York City or they're looking at wherever , they're looking at these pockets where the market is starting to depreciate .
But then they put it out there and everybody thinks that's what's happening everywhere . Sure , and it's not there's still pockets everywhere . There's pockets within our own community , here , of of um of things that are different . You know you go from one school district to the next . You're going to see one that's appreciating , yet one that's actually not .
So it's very , very localized and it's very important that people get the correct information from us and not the media .
Well , we're still at 100.1 . What is 100.1 ? 100.1 . That's pretty much list price .
Yeah , that's great , that's average .
now , that's great , that's average , yeah , so we're right there , and that's what I'm saying .
If you do an analysis , pricing analysis , anywhere locally here , you might find that some places it's going to be 98% . Yeah , it depends on the market you're in , but you're saying as an average it's 100.1 .
It's a Berks County . Yeah , it's interesting Job report right for October was pitiful .
Yeah , really bad 12,000 new jobs and they also adjusted all the months before too , which were actually lower .
Yeah , so that could change here on the upcoming months . It could happen , and then we have a graphic . I don't know if we're going to post it or not , but it has to do with homeowners . Yeah , it'll be on .
Yep , it's the updated homeowner versus renter net worth gap . It's just , I love it's , it's , it's updated . I have that . I have that . You have it right here . Oh yeah , the right there . It's done . Yeah , and it's now .
That is pretty crazy , dude the last reporting time was 2022 , that's so I guess that's the last they had the stats from . But 390 . Um , if you own a home , the , your average net worth is $396,200 . If you own a home and as a renter , you're $10,400 . Isn't that crazy ? That is absolutely crazy .
That just tells you you've got to buy a house and you just get started .
You've got to jump in . I mean , I tell my buyer clients that all the time you just have to jump in . I think because this market is so weird , where we have prices going up in some areas , prices going down in some areas . Media is telling you there's a lot of confusion right now . And then also the interest rates .
Everybody thinks the rates might come back down to 3% , 4% . The thing that there's so many different messages right now that there's nothing that somebody can just go . Okay , here's what's happening . And I think before , believe it or not , when rates were low for a long period of time , prices were going up for a long period of time .
So everybody coming into the market knew one , the rates are low . Two , you better jump in before the price is up next week . So now it's kind of all over . So you really got to watch where you're at , with where you're buying .
But no matter what , jump in , just jump in , jump in , because I could tell you a year from now you're going to be going son of a gun . Why didn't I jump in ? I lost that appreciation or whatever . Absolutely so going back to the mortgage rates , which is interesting .
Um , keeping current matters , does this survey and in October they did the survey again and these are the numbers they came up with and basically it said for , uh , quarter four of 2024 , which we are in , that now the average is saying it's going to be a 6.17 percent rate and that's fannie mae , nba and ner getting together and kind of giving their prediction .
2025 quarter one is saying six percent . 2025 quarter two is saying 5.9 . They're off already . Yeah , exactly , I know , because it's what is it ? We don't know . I didn't mean what is it ? Around the time of the is staying 5.9% . They're off already . Yeah , exactly , I know because it's .
What is it ? We don't know . I didn't mean . What is it ? Around the time of the show we're at the rate . What 6.75 ? It's seven . It just came down from seven a little bit .
Yeah , Just under seven , so yeah , but the thing is the one thing that everybody does agree on that we , we . What I've listened to is that the rates are not supposed to go up in 2025 . Right , they're supposed to kind of mellow out a little bit .
They will , yeah , and I think they will too . The certainty is over now politically yeah , yep and um , which probably brings us to , if you want to , just really quick , I want to mention about why home sales bounce back .
This is what you do with rates . You just do that . We'll put this on our . Yeah , because that didn't mean anything . What I just said . I'll just keep this here .
Yeah , just keeping that there . Okay good , but why home sales bounce back after presidential elections ?
Did you see that ? I saw that , yes , I actually . I saw that yes .
So seasonally , every election time , which is the fall , it goes down 9.8% , just seasonally , on which we're getting back to , we're coming back and covid period is over . I mean it's the unicorn years . Yeah , it's over .
So we're coming back to seasonality , so , but during election years it goes down 15 yeah , I saw that because of the uncertainty , right , but then , but then . Good news 82 of years following an election , so in this coming coming year will be 2025 for us 82% of the years following an election increased since 1980 . That's good news , right ?
I looked at the chart . I don't have the chart with me , I do . Is it this ?
one . No , no , that's the forecast .
Only two of those years actually went down . Wow , and it was really the 08 thing and it was something else . When the uncertainty is over , people go back at , go back into it well , and you know I get it .
here's the thing whether you win or lose , we know the country's divided 50 50 . Okay , when you win or lose . Here's what I said the last month and a half , two months , the 50 , each 100 of the people going , I'm not doing anything because if my person doesn't get in , I'm going to be depressed , right , and so then nobody does anything .
At least now the 50% that won is making decisions . That's right . The other 50% might be upset and might be depressed , but they will get over it also and they will start to make decisions because life goes on .
That's right , and the uncertainty is over . Yeah . That's really the biggest , absolutely fear of the unknown . Yeah , it is fear of the unknown yeah , I mean , the predicted sales for 2024 is 4.6 million and we're on track for that for 2024 .
Yeah , 2024 and then for 2025 um it's five something 5.7 million sales yeah yeah , that's after an election . That's after election . It's amazing . Yep , it's awesome , right ? Yeah , what else we got ? I think it's how many homes in the market . It's 335 , I think , right .
No 435 . 435 . That's in our area here , 435 . Not 335 .
Holy crap , that'd be fake news . Holy crap , can't do fake news . We heard enough of that . Here was one that's real interesting . And then we'll kind of wrap this up . Oh no , you know what this magic mind dude , I'm on , I'm on . I should ask him that every month , right same question .
They'll be like oh my god , he has alzheimer's um , but no um , and I'm taking this stuff . That's . It's really amazing . I have I'm on autopilot . Oh good , oh good , so am I so am I but I get the brad 40 deal . Oh , you didn't . Oh , we'll have to work on that for you , that's okay . Um , yeah , so this is magic mind . I've been taking it every day .
My wife takes it . It is amazing , pete is taking it yeah it's got all kinds of stuff for focus , for energy , you know , and it's funny , I missed it a couple times because a couple days in a row I think we're away or something like that and there's definitely a difference of sharpness that I feel when I'm , when I'm , when I'm drinking it . I really do .
I feel the difference . It's called magic mind . You can go on , you can go online and look , you can use the Brad Wiseman secret code . I think it's only 20% now . So it's magicmindcom backslash Brad Wiseman . 20 is what it is . You get 20% off If you have an issue getting the 20% off .
That's the deal I got .
That's the deal you got . Okay , if you have a problem getting in kind of discount , let me know , because I want to make sure you get it and you can just email me know , because I want to make sure you get it and you can just email me .
do you know what one word sums that stuff up ? Yeah , give me one word clarity , ah because it's very good one . I like that you don't feel like . You don't feel like a , a , you know puppy upper yeah , it's not .
It's not that , it's not that because I'm drinking it with coffee that's what I drink it with , yeah yeah , and it's like there's no , and I actually enjoy it now . Actually , yeah , I think the caffeine helps it .
I know caffeine is a messenger .
It elongates your caffeine effect too . It does . It makes you feel more awake . But the clarity , yeah , I agree , and maybe it's because I'm 62 years old or something , I don't know .
But if I don't take it I'm trying not to take it on a day that I don't work , yeah , just don't , just to relax , yeah , and I'm like we always thought you were like .
My mama told me yeah , oh my God , I remember that that was a good part . I'm like the buzzard , you know yeah .
But , man , when you take it , you know what Dude you said wait , wait to take a couple and then it starts to take effect . For me Now are different and all that . I take it once and I feel it I didn't need to build up to it .
Yeah , Sometimes they say three days it takes until you actually get the effects of it , but this is my new box of it .
So here , why don't you take one home ? Thank you , man , you're okay . Yeah , of course . Of course , there you go , there you go .
All right , so real quick . I just want to talk about this was interesting about the jobs report that did come out in October , which we talked about it already . This is what I think is interesting . So 51,000 of the jobs that came in in October were healthcare and social assistance . Wow , guess what . The number two job maker was Realtors .
Nope , what do you think ? What do you think ? Government , government , 40,000 new jobs in government in .
October . I was just guessing . No , that's what it is . Oh , wow , that's what it is .
So healthcare is number one . That's something that has to be slowed down or stopped . It's too much .
That has got to stop .
Yeah , wholesale trade 10,400 jobs , that's good Construction . 8,000 jobs that shows that new construction might be coming back . Fourth information . Not sure what the hell that is 3,000 of those on information . I want to do that job , just give information Mining and logging 1,000 . Oh , dude , See , that's real man stuff . I'm a lumberjack .
Did you know that I'm a lumberjack and you're okay ?
Yes , and I'm okay . I work all day . But guess who lost jobs , utilities , lost jobs To .
AI To AI yeah , automation .
I'm actually a robot right now .
Yeah .
Yeah , we hired a new Hugo . Oh God , it's funny . Transportation warehousing down 3,700 . Leisure hospitality down 4,000 . Retail trade down 6,400 . In jobs , manufacturing , we lost 46,000 . Professional and business service we lost 47,000 . That's us , is that us ?
Professional and business service . Yeah , there you go , and we were the biggest one . What's that ? We were the biggest loss .
Yeah , we were the biggest loss . So it's very telling of where things need to change .
Yeah , okay , it's very telling , but that's pretty much it .
Anything else to say , Hugo ? Anything else to say ?
No , you're good yeah .
All right , sounds good . Yeah , man , that's pretty much it . I think that was a lot of information .
Dude , that was yeah , that was a lot of info . Yeah , very quickly , that was a lot of information . I hope we didn't overwhelm anybody .
I hope not too . I hope not . I know I need a drink . Yeah , two amazing sponsors . We got Comfort Pro and we have First Response Contracting . They're amazing , they're sponsors of our show and also Magic Mind , of course . Thanks for coming to see us every Thursday at 7pm . Alright , that's it .