Real Talk on Housing Markets

from real estate affects the market as a whole , which then sometimes will affect the right . You know the real life . We all learn in different ways . If you think about it , wayne dyer might not attract everybody , and everything in between mission was really to help people just to reach their full potential .

The brad weisman and now your host .

Brad Wiseman . All right , we're back , hugo . You're back too , aren't you ? I am , I am ,

That's right , there he is . That's right there he is .

There he is Good-looking guy yeah , look at him . I mean come on . Yeah , that's right . So we're back . And we're back because we have a real estate show going on . Yes , we do . That's today , today for joining us , by the way , every thursday at 7 pm and also thanks for our . We have some sponsors . First response contracting john sellers 484-256-7136 .

That's right , that's right , that's right .

He has no idea . So no Pete's here today . Pete , thanks for coming in again tonight . Appreciate it .

Thanks for having me , mr Wise man . Yeah , wise man .

Always good to see you , always good to talk about real estate . Let's , um , you know let's . Let's just start off . How many houses on the market here in berks county ?

well , there was 446 about an hour ago .

Okay , so we're staying up there we're staying in that mid-four range . This is good , better than 250 . It is better than 250 and but you know , what I love is the consistency of it . Yeah , the consistency . And actually it's not uncommon nationally . All those numbers are up , right , all the numbers are up nationally , right , all the numbers are up nationally .

And we're kind of , we're just kind of and it's higher nationally .

Oh , a lot higher .

A lot higher . Yeah , a lot higher . Average-wise it's way higher .

Yeah , it's interesting and some of the information we have is going to kind of show where things are . And we're midway through the year . Yeah , we're past midway through the year , that's true . And that means that now the predictions of what we see or what we're looking at , all the predictions are what's it going to be to the end of 2025 ?

Well , the headlines are always making points .

No pun intended with it . That's funny . Yeah , that's pretty good , just flew in there yeah .

Okay , so foreclosure starts are up 7% in the first six months of this year . 7% , okay , they're up 7% Of a very small number . Yeah , okay , but zooming out shows that's nowhere near crisis level . Okay , it's 0.13% of homes 0.13% , 0.13% , okay . Even though that's an uptick , it was way less than that during the COVID thing , the forbearance program and all that .

You couldn't foreclose .

Exactly During COVID .

You couldn't Even if I wanted to Nope , They'd be like no , sir , we're not going to let you foreclose . That's right , unless we swab your nose . If we swab your nose and you have COVID , you don't have to pay a damn thing .

That's exactly right .

Could you imagine what a program .

Imagine that now Swab my nose , swab my nose , swab my nose .

I don't want to pay for my mortgage Go ahead .

But the point is , brad , it's always going to go up from that . Yeah , it's always going to come up because , because it's because you can foreclose now , yeah , if you want , so point point one three percent of all homes ? Yeah , I don't think that's a problem I don't think that's a problem okay , yeah , so we are not even close to crisis level .

Pennsylvania was 0.12 yeah , so let's put that into terms that even make more sense . Okay , so it says here from uh data that's out there and available is the first half of 2025 was one in every 758 homes nationwide had a foreclosure filing .

That's the stat .

This is the one that is interesting . In 2010 , during the crash , mortgage News Daily says it was one in every 45 homes . That means you knew somebody . You knew somebody that was foreclosing A couple problems . You know what I mean . In Berks County , you knew somebody was foreclosing Brad . Do you remember ?

It's crazy . Do you remember the quality of the home that was under foreclosure ? Yeah , do you remember walking into a home that was in perfect condition Normally ? Before that it was , oh my God , foreclosures .

Yeah , there was dog poop on the floor , maybe cat poop , maybe both . Maybe both depends what you're into . Dead cats yeah , dead cats were there too , humans .

I mean , it was really . We are not against cats , no , no , no , we like cats , no , but no , I can remember people just threw their keys on the counter and just let their house go to foreclosure . Yeah , because they didn't have any . It was they couldn't pay . They couldn't pay , yeah , no , so it's but that really was amazing .

One in 758 now Yep , as opposed to one in 45 . That's unbelievable .

So that's folks . That really puts it into perspective Exactly .

So we're good , yet no foreclosures , hugo . Nope , that's right , you're not foreclosing . Everybody's good , nope .

Nope , and that's again . That's a national statistic . Yeah , here locally we're a little bit better than that .

And also , if you are thinking about foreclosing just because you lost your job or whatever , please talk to a realtor . Don't just throw the keys on the counter and walk away . There's value there , you know . If you can't afford the house , at least grab the equity you deserve . You know what I mean and then get an apartment or live with a friend .

His realtor knows he has less kids than you , though he has less kids than you , but he's almost there , but his realtor knows the house very well .

That's a nice house and you should see what he did to it too unbelievable . I want to move in , yeah he he before you couldn't see the house because all the trees and landscaping , landscaping um was there . Now you can actually see the house vegetation , yeah , vegetation jungle , yeah , so what other stats do you have ?

well , I would . Just , we were looking at the , the latest kcm thing that came out , I think it was actually even today um , the housing market forecast for the rest of 2025 . Yeah , yeah , go , yeah , go ahead . Right , and you know , the big thing is everyone's saying in fact , I've even talked to some-- oh , is this the one that has ?

everybody has a different guess . Yes , yes , yes , this is great . I love it . It's great , oh .

I love these . These are so great because they are always wrong .

They are Zillow and Redfin are predicting the worst case scenario I know . Now , do they know they're in real estate business ? Yeah Well , they're the third . That's what ? Yeah .

I mean , I don't think they know and you got to understand this is their guess . No , they're into selling leads for us business .

Even if your guess sucks , don't tell everybody . Your guess sucks Exactly , Especially if you're in the real estate business . If I thought the market was going to go to shit in 2025 , do you really think I'm going to tell my customers ?

oh man , it's going to go to shit . It's going to go to shit . Yeah , exactly . Unless you absolutely positively knew Exactly , this is a prediction so don't yeah , that's unbelievable .

It Prediction so don't yeah , that's unbelievable , it's unreal , guys . But then there's a lot of good predictions , A lot of good ones .

Yeah , well , the highest one's Fannie Mae . Yeah , and you know what that's the secondary mortgage markets . They're feeling very comfortable and good about the real estate market and I actually believe that one more so . That one , because they have more analysts .

They have more people that know finances . Yeah , you know what I mean . I trust that .

I mean you got the lenders HPES , Wells Fargo , mba .

So what's the ?

average . The average is 1.6 . Appreciation yeah , I think it's more . I think it's going to be more .

Well , you got to remember that's an average of the nation . I think we might be more .

We're at 5.4 right now .

Yeah .

I think that are at 5.4% appreciation so far this year . Still great , yeah , it's amazing . So the nation is 1.6 folks . If you're around the Berks County area , lancaster , you know all that . You are in a great spot because your equity is , you know , your appreciations in the fives .

Yep , and you remember , last month I made the comment about you know , making sure , as a seller , that you're not going to be stingy not stingy but greedy , whatever you want to call it . Yeah , that you made your money over the last five to six years , don't let's not worry about the last month or two months .

Okay , Well , if you've owned your house over the last five , six , seven years , you guys , you guys what I meant by that data from the federal housing finance agency , fhfa , shows prices are up 55% nationally compared to just five years ago .

So if your house is up 55% over the past five years , if it drops by two or 3% over the next couple of months , let's not , let's not get crazy about it .

I mean 50% . You made your money already .

You made a good amount of money . You've made it , and not that how much money is too much ? Well , I always think you want to make as much as you can . I too much ? Well , I always think you want to make as much as you can . I'm not one of those that's . I'm a capitalist , you know .

I don't know if I have any evil music . Yeah , yeah , there you go yeah , but they're not .

the point is , of all that's not crashing , no , no , and and I've . I was starting to say I think , and I think we got off . I've even spoken to some realtors recently People if I mentioned their name , you would be shocked that think that this thing is going to come down , it's going to crash . It has to level out , right ?

It's supply and demand Period . It's not going to happen .

I mean it's all inventory , it's all supply and demand . 100% . We're not building anything right now . That's significant in numbers . This is not going to change here in Berks County .

I'm talking Berks County now .

Florida's already done it . They're always changing and some of the short points they're already experiencing it but is changing and some some of the short points . They're already experiencing it , but texas , arizona , the sky is not falling .

I mean this here locally we're good right , but this media just really and the media is more national than they are local , so and we really don't have anybody on a local level , probably besides us , right uh , telling what's going on in the berks county real estate that's correct you're not going to get it on any local news . No , they don't .

um prediction yeah , change yeah yeah , I know .

So I love how these guys work . This is what we predict for 2025 . This is gospel . This is what's going to happen . Take our word for it . All right , forget what we said in January . We were serious this time , in .

July . We're serious . We're serious Now we know what we're talking about . Now we're serious .

Now we're good , we got these numbers down . Oh my God , then the end of 2025 . Well , we were a little off .

Oh my gosh , it's funny . All right , so basically what this means , it's stable , yeah it is . So the rates are stable . They're not increasing , or really . If you see a decrease , it's going to be extremely small . Yeah , the average is in the six and a half range from 6.4 to 6.6, . Right , get used to 6.6 .

I mean that's where it's at . I mean hugo doesn't want to hear that because he wants to refinance what are you at .

I'm at seven and a half seven .

Oh well , you know that , like we talked , about your realtor .

Couldn't get you a better rate than that I'd fire that guy man .

I don't know I'd block that number . Oh man , he has to see me every week . He can't get rid of me . He's like yeah , I got this damn podcast . I got to go in and act like I like him . You're a good actor , You're a very good actor .

You

Yeah , you should , you should .

All right , so let's move on . What ?

else you got there Anything else , what else ? You got Well . Hugo had a question . Why don't we go through that ? Yeah , let's talk about that .

I saw this , let's this image on the internet that said it was a realtor posting saying now I find myself having to buy a washer and a dryer for my I think for a buyer , because the seller included it in the contract but not in the listing . But I didn't know what that meant .

But I think what it was is . The gist of it was this , I think , when he told us before we went on Was if you have a listing agreement and it says no washer and dryers included , the seller says no , no , don't want it included . Okay , An agreement gets written and the buyer's agent puts in that it's included and nobody catches it .

Yeah , yeah , Isn't that ? I think that's what it was . Yeah , yeah , so he says I'm about to buy a washer and a dryer for a buyer , because I didn't catch that that they included it on the contract for my seller , yet it was not included in the listing . Yeah , so he was the listing agent . Yeah Well .

I mean , I have a comment about that . Go ahead make the comment the realtor's signature isn't on the agreement of sale . So we have a buyer and a seller who agreed on an agreement of sale and you're supposed to I mean , as a realtor , you're supposed to point out these things though , all the things that are on the agreement . So it got missed somehow .

No , it was the listing agent . It was the listing agent .

Okay , the listing agent was saying Well , that's then a shame on him , because maybe he just didn't . He feels responsible . Explain it .

He or she feels have caught that I'm gonna , I'm gonna pay for the buyer , the . The main thing is , just as a aside , yeah , remember , and I tell people this all the time the listing agreement is completely different than the agreement of sale . Yep , it is . Um , you could put whatever you want in that listing agreement .

Yeah .

Very important .

I can remember Conrad way back in the day .

Good question or good comment .

That's a great question . Back in the day , always when you go to Conrad with a problem , what would the first thing out of his mouth what's the contract say ? What's the contract say ?

It's exactly right . What does the contract say ?

So true ? Does the contract say so ? True , it's just what it is . But as realtors , that's our job to explain it , to make sure they understand everything that , all the nuances of it , inspections , all that stuff , what could happen , brazils , all that stuff . It's our job , yeah , to make sure that they're clear .

The thing is look at the agreement of sale . As a seller , I always tell a seller there's certain things in the agreement of sale , pretty much anything that's written in . So there's a lot of blank spaces on a Pennsylvania agreement of sale , a lot of blank spaces , whatever's written in .

I have a quick , quick question . So if I , if I sell my house after 10 years and I made some money on it , is that , is that taxable , the money that I made on it ? The difference .

Well , the money , money . If you don't reinvest that into your primary residence , um then yes , if you just took that , but I think it's two years you have . You have two years to reinvest that got two years , or you pay taxes on it .

That's the cap . Yeah , that's the cap . It's $500,000 for the two of you guys .

There's changes coming up . Good thing you brought that up . There's changes . There's a lot of changes coming up . What changes ? In a good way , in a good way taxable amount of 250,000 , anything over 250 , you would be taxed on , okay . And now this is federally . Now too , remember , there's always state , federal , local . This is what we talk about . This .

What are they proponing to raising it to ?

I don't know that , but I know they're going to raise it and it's primary residence , only right , primary residence . Okay , yeah , which is fair , it is fair , that's fair the whole idea is you know , your primary residence is there as a wealth building yeah , tool . It's not only a place that you live in it , it's a wealth building tool .

Yeah , you know what I mean .

Let it , let it go with them . Let them spend it the way they want to spend it , instead of taking 20% . Now they don't have enough money and now the government has to take care of them . Right , doesn't make sense .

You should run for office . I should , I should . I think you should be president . Thank you , brad , for president , brad for president , and I did approve that message , just so you know .

I approved that frigging message . So did you have another question , hugo ? No , no , that was very informative . They're good questions today , very good questions . It's about time he got the camera . Yeah , he's feeling confident the Hugo camera . Yeah , it's the Hugo camera , I know I know , so no , some of the other stuff here . There are some dips in the market .

There has to be adjustments , has to be adjustments . And that brings up that five-year rule . You know that says if you buy a house today , within five years , for the little ups and downs of it , you're going to make out in five years that you don't- .

No matter what .

No matter what .

So it doesn't matter when you buy . So if you buy it when it's down , you're going to be good . Yep , if you buy when it's up , if you buy in the middle you're going to be good , because it's going to go maybe down and back up , or up and back down . So , or up and back down , so no matter what , in that five-year period you'll be okay .

Exactly , amazing that's not a long period of time . That's not a long period of time . I remember it used to be seven .

But that shows you also how quick real estate adjusts .

It's a big adjustment , yeah .

When it goes down , it tends to come back up , yeah it does .

It's amazing . That's really cool . I like that .

Yeah , it's a good one . Good . So the other thing I saw here too I hope this was really interesting was on keeping current matters . It says if you want to make a move , your best bet is to focus on your personal situation . It says not what the headlines say . Work with a real estate pro who knows to navigate the shifting conditions in our local market .

That is very much the truth , I love that it's very good advice .

So if you're going to , if you want to move , it should be about your personal situation . Don't try to time the rate , don't try to time the market , don't try to time when , when um Sally's going to college , don't try , you know , just if there's a need there or if it's time to go , then then do it , then move , that's it .

Yeah , we should all keep that in mind . Yeah ,

So true , that's all we know . I think that's all we know for this week . We don't know much . I mean , that's pretty , that's pretty much it . I mean , we tried the eight ball but I couldn't freaking see it .

It must have been something profane or something .

It never comes up . No , it wasn't .

This is what I get . It doesn't even .

Oh , no wait . No wait , now it's saying something Pete's a jerk . That's weird . So , pete , thanks for coming out again , I appreciate it .

Thanks for your insight .

Thanks for your information on the real estate market , hugo , thanks for your input . I appreciate it . All right , there we go . That was it the Real Estate Show here on the Brad Wiseman Show . And thanks again for our sponsors , first Response and Comfort Pro . We really appreciate that too .