In this episode, Nik welcomes Michael Sullivan, a bitcoin researcher who analyzes market sentiment through language. Michael explains how he runs natural language models across thousands of tweets, cohorting bitcoiners into newer retail accounts versus longer-term holders, to measure moods like anger, conviction, optimism, and apathy over time. He covers why bitcoin is in one of the most prolonged anger regimes on record, why Michael Saylor has become the main target of that disapproval, and how...
Jun 23, 2026•32 min•Ep. 276
In this episode, Nik welcomes Tony Yazbek, co-founder of The Bitcoin Way, for a conversation on why owning bitcoin yourself is the whole point. Tony argues that bitcoin is money rather than an investment, and that anything wrapped in legacy finance, from ETFs to exchange balances, is not the same as holding it directly. He recounts surviving Lebanon's 2019 banking collapse, when he woke up homeless with about $75 after the banks confiscated everyone's savings, and how it shaped his conviction. T...
Jun 18, 2026•34 min•Ep. 275
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Tanvi Ratna, geoeconomic strategist and Fox News columnist, for a conversation on why the Iran conflict is far bigger than the Middle East. Tanvi lays out her thesis that Iran is the node in a global re-architecture of the world order, and walks through how the war is realigning Europe, reshaping NATO as European commanders take over operational theaters, and squeezing Russia out of Latin America, the Middle East, and its energy markets. She explains the Saudi-...
Jun 16, 2026•56 min•Ep. 274
In this episode, Nik welcomes John Tinsman, founder and portfolio manager at AOT Invest, for a conversation on why the AI buildout looks like a revolution rather than a bubble. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Jun 11, 2026•44 min•Ep. 273
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Daniel Batten, bitcoin researcher and longtime voice on bitcoin's role in energy, for a conversation on the collision between AI, the power grid, and bitcoin mining. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Jun 09, 2026•37 min•Ep. 272
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Dr. Stephen Perrenod, astrophysicist and member of the Scientific Bitcoin Institute, for a conversation on the mathematics behind bitcoin's price. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Jun 02, 2026•53 min•Ep. 271
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Joe Consorti, a TBL veteran who helped build The Bitcoin Layer in its early days, for a conversation on bitcoin, AI, and the next phase of markets. Joe explains why bitcoin has lagged equities, why the four-year cycle may be breaking, and why AI could become one of the biggest long-term bull cases for bitcoin. He also breaks down the volatile macro setup ahead, from war-driven oil inflation and higher rates to the AI capex boom, asset price inflation, and why b...
May 26, 2026•44 min•Ep. 270
In this Global Macro Update, Nik argues a global bond crisis is brewing and it starts outside the United States. Japanese yields are driving the worldwide sell-off, with German and UK bonds close behind, while inflation expectations roar back on the oil shock from the war in Iran. Nik walks through every major asset class, the bear flattener in US Treasuries, why credit spreads show no fear at home, and why the SOFR market signals a flight to safety rather than US bond stress. On the economy, he...
May 11, 2026•45 min•Ep. 269
The CME just launched compute futures, with CEO Terry Duffy calling compute "the new oil of the 21st century." In this video, Nik argues this is the dominant force in markets right now, and it's exactly what he laid out in yesterday's Substack post, The Token Layer. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
May 11, 2026•41 min•Ep. 268
Nik welcomes Matt Dines, CIO of Build Asset Management, back to The Bitcoin Layer to unpack the UAE leaving OPEC and what it signals about a broader dollar system remake. Dines ties the UAE's pivot toward direct Fed swap lines to the Bank of Japan holding rates, the un-inversion of the 3-month / 6-month T-bill curve after 130 weeks, and the disaster unfolding in UK gilts. He closes with his thesis on the ninth inning of the credit cycle, the 1913 Anglo-American merger, and the Pax Silica vision ...
May 05, 2026•57 min•Ep. 267
Nik welcomes back Lyn Alden for a wide-ranging conversation on AI's economic impact, the repricing of software stocks, and why the deficit only goes one direction. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Apr 12, 2026•1 hr 1 min•Ep. 266
Nik welcomes back Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital for an urgent breakdown of the global liquidity cycle. Michael explains why the cyclical top is in, how oil, the MOVE index, and the dollar have dealt a 20% blow to global liquidity, and why the everything bubble is over. They cover the $45 trillion debt maturity wall, China's monetization driving gold, Treasury QE replacing Fed QE, bank deregulation as a 2027 catalyst, private credit's illiquidity risk, and why Michael says don't trade bit...
Apr 01, 2026•1 hr 8 min•Ep. 265
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital for a wide-ranging global macro conversation. Brent breaks down the dollar's behavior during geopolitical crises, the deglobalization thesis and fracturing supply chains, and his Rise of the American Empire framework drawing parallels to Rome's transition from republic to empire. They cover the Office of Strategic Capital's push to secure critical minerals and semiconductors, the US-China power competition over chips and rare e...
Mar 25, 2026•57 min•Ep. 264
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Yaël Ossowski, Fellow at the Bitcoin Policy Institute, to break down the escalating standoff between Anthropic and the Pentagon. They examine how Claude was reportedly used in the Venezuela raid, why Anthropic is drawing a hard line against warrantless surveillance and autonomous weapons, and the political fault lines forming between AI safety and permissionless innovation. Yaël unpacks the third party doctrine and its direct implications for Bitcoiners’ financ...
Mar 04, 2026•29 min•Ep. 263
In this episode, Nik breaks down why Anthropic's Claude has displaced Donald Trump as the single most important force driving global macro and financial markets, walking through the system-level evidence including IBM dropping 12% on a single AI headline, Block cutting 40% of its workforce, trucking capacity sold out from data center buildout, and Treasury yields falling in direct response to new model releases. He connects the AI arms race to US economic statecraft, the fight to outpace China, ...
Feb 28, 2026•45 min•Ep. 262
In this episode, Nik sits down with Sam Baker, Research at River, to break down River's second annual Bitcoin adoption report, covering how institutional ownership, registered investment advisors, sovereign holdings, and small business adoption all accelerated in 2025 despite price weakness. Sam explains why individual ownership likely peaked in 2024, why RIAs managing $146 trillion hold less than one basis point in Bitcoin, and what the ownership distribution trend implies for the decade ahead....
Feb 24, 2026•40 min•Ep. 261
In this episode, Nik walks through our TBL proprietary liquidity index, explaining why the red signal flagged in late December and confirmed in January preceded Bitcoin's sharp decline below $70,000. He breaks down the four inputs driving the current liquidity contraction, with focus on dollar volatility and bond stress, the US-Japan currency relationship, and why early-cycle US credit growth remains the structural argument for improving conditions ahead. 📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and gl...
Feb 18, 2026•28 min•Ep. 260
In this episode, Nik breaks down Bitcoin’s bounce following a softer-than-expected CPI print and falling Treasury yields, analyzing the rollover in the 200-day moving average, the latest negative mining difficulty adjustment, and what shifting liquidity conditions mean for risk assets. He explains why bond markets, dollar strength, and fixed income demand, including Google’s rare 100-year bond issuance, matter more for Bitcoin in the short term than fundamentals, while also revisiting the long-t...
Feb 13, 2026•33 min•Ep. 259
In this episode, Nik breaks down dramatic political developments in Japan, including a snap election, currency intervention, and the U.S.-Japan effort to defend the yen, and explains why these moves matter for global liquidity and Bitcoin. He walks through Bitcoin’s drawdown using on-chain metrics like realized price and MVRV, shows why rising volatility and elevated stock correlations point to a macro driven move, and ties Japan’s bond market stress, dollar weakness, and FX intervention directl...
Feb 09, 2026•32 min•Ep. 258
In this episode, Nik and Matt Dines break down Bitcoin’s 52% drawdown, focusing on the global liquidity forces pressuring risk assets. They explain how reindustrialization, capital rotation out of software and speculative assets, yen and dollar liquidity stress, and rising volatility across gold, equities, and FX are colliding at once. The conversation reframes Bitcoin’s selloff as a macro-driven liquidity event, not a failure of the asset, and walks through what must stabilize before conditions...
Feb 06, 2026•56 min•Ep. 257
In this episode, Nik sits down with TBL on-chain analyst Johan Bergman to break down Bitcoin’s recent breakdown, sell-the-rip behavior, and the on-chain signals flashing bear market conditions. Johan walks through cost basis models, the AVIV Ratio Mean, short-term holder behavior, and why Bitcoin’s November trend break marked a major regime shift. They discuss ETF flows, forced selling, liquidation dynamics, and where real support may emerge next, while separating long-term conviction from short...
Feb 03, 2026•45 min•Ep. 256
In this episode, Nik steps back to assess the massive shifts underway in global markets. With gold surging to record highs, silver collapsing after a historic spike, and Bitcoin struggling versus both gold and the dollar, Nik revisits long-held assumptions about money, Basel III, the Shanghai Gold Exchange, and the end of the WTO era. He explains why gold is reentering the monetary system, how Bitcoin still fits into the layered money framework, and what these changes mean for investors navigati...
Jan 30, 2026•1 hr 2 min•Ep. 255
In this episode, Nik breaks down the Japan “rate check” that sent the U.S. dollar sharply lower and triggered major moves across global markets. He explains how Japan’s bond stress, rising yields, and yen instability forced coordination with the U.S., why the dollar index breaking long-term support matters for liquidity, and how a weaker dollar is pushing stocks and gold higher. Nik closes by connecting the rate check to TBL Liquidity, why Bitcoin has lagged gold so far, and why a sustained doll...
Jan 28, 2026•17 min•Ep. 254
In this episode, Nik breaks down a massive global macro repricing as gold approaches $5,000, bond markets stabilize, and the world adjusts to a new economic order. He walks through key signals across Bitcoin, Treasuries, inflation expectations, labor markets, and global trade to explain why volatility is falling, liquidity conditions are improving, and why Bitcoin’s muted price action may be a feature, not a flaw, of this transition. Nik ties together Davos rhetoric, Supreme Court tariff dynamic...
Jan 23, 2026•57 min•Ep. 253
In this episode, Nik sits down with Brian McCarthy to break down China’s debt-driven growth model, rare earth leverage, and why central planning has created deep structural risks. They explore how China’s manufacturing dominance masks massive capital misallocation, why rare earths have become a geopolitical pressure point, and how a potential unwind could reshape global markets. The discussion ties China’s internal fragility to global liquidity, geopolitical escalation, and the long-term implica...
Jan 21, 2026•44 min•Ep. 252
In this episode, Nik breaks down how the Supreme Court’s tariff decision, the administration’s healthcare proposal, and growing pressure on the Federal Reserve are all part of a single fiscal and national security framework. He explains why economic sovereignty, debt servicing costs, and healthcare spending are now central to U.S. policy decisions, and how these forces intersect with interest rates and Fed independence. Nik walks through the unsustainable math behind rising deficits, why lowerin...
Jan 16, 2026•35 min•Ep. 251
In this episode, Nik breaks down Bitcoin’s strong start to the year as price reclaims key technical levels following a deep but healthy drawdown. He walks through daily, weekly, and structural trend lines to explain why recent higher lows and higher closes matter for Bitcoin’s next move. Nik then zooms out to discuss resistance zones, bull market structure, and what a potential test of the $108,000 to $112,000 range could signal for momentum. He closes with a deeper look at the growing debate ar...
Jan 14, 2026•23 min•Ep. 250
In this episode, Nik Bhatia and Demian Schatt step back from short-term liquidity signals to examine the global balance sheet and its implications for Bitcoin. They break down why global wealth has decoupled from GDP, how financialization and credit expansion reshaped the world economy, and why policymakers have become increasingly resistant to prolonged contraction. Nik explains how Bitcoin fits into a system with nearly $1 quadrillion in existing net worth, why adoption and credit expansion ma...
Jan 08, 2026•39 min•Ep. 249
In this episode, Nik explains why US Treasury stability is critical for sustained Bitcoin strength by walking through repo markets, bond volatility, and Fed balance sheet dynamics. He breaks down how year-end funding stress, Treasury issuance choices, and inflation trends shape liquidity conditions across the system. Nik shows why stable repo rates and calmer bond markets matter for leveraged Bitcoin buyers, how housing and energy costs feed into inflation expectations, and what improving Treasu...
Jan 06, 2026•37 min•Ep. 248
In this episode, Nik sits down with Dr. André Dragosch of Bitwise to break down why large institutional capital is lining up behind Bitcoin heading into 2026. They explore ETF flows, treasury company demand, wirehouse adoption, & why Vanguard’s green light marks a major shift in access for traditional investors. André explains how global growth expectations, bond market stress, & falling confidence in sovereign debt are reshaping capital allocation, setting the stage for Bitcoin to push ...
Dec 23, 2025•50 min•Ep. 247
