"The ACC SportsBook - October 18th"

Life from the Export Beer Gun Studio. This is the ACC Sports Book powered by the tab.

ACC Sports Bort Thanks to the TAB for.

Good morning to Lane and a very good morning via the power of zoom to Carl from the TB.

Has your week been, Carl?

It's been busy boys every week. Lots on lots of racing stuff.

Yeah shit, Yeah, we'll touch on that a bit later because we've got our picks for the Mega millions a bit later. So yeah, so you can fell us in on your week on that front.

Yep.

We've been training. We've been in training this week. I think my approach to this may shock you to your core.

Yeah. Like I said, we'll get to this very shortly.

I guess the biggest sporting news this week or event rather would probably be the National Provincial Championship in New Zealand. Here the SEMIS this week, Carl. What are the punters liking in the NPC this weekend?

It makes me sick to my stomach. But the punters like can this week?

Oh but do you think that is just because they're losing all their they're all blacks are off to the Northern Tour, So I think I don't think it's going to.

Be as as square as the short memories.

Yeah, I'm looking at it now. At Canterbury's a dollar in ninety seven. But I felt like when this opened they were way, way, way further out than that. So is that because everyone's loading up on them.

Probably all the money's on Cannabary head to head Canobary thirteen plus also getting smashed.

Relax, people need to relax on that. What's that playing four sixty?

We've had a five thousand dollar bit at a two and a half thousand dollar bet on Canterbury at a dollar ninety seven.

H that's in one eyes. That's in one eyes coming in there, because this is because they plenty are playing at home?

Is that right?

In Totoga?

It's just it's just off the back of the way they won last week. Yeah, it was just sixty two points I think they scored and it was like stop the fight. They should have thrown the towel into Tasman. But yeah, you're right.

Was that? Is that actually like bad for the NPC.

The way they did that, just flooded the market with all blacks, then yanked them back out again the next week.

Yeah, it seemed a bit odd, didn't it If they're not going to stick around till the actual and winning. Fine, if they stuck around for the final. Yeah, but it did seem odd that one week of playing in PC really skew some results and then pass off.

Yeah.

It's like when you play rugby at high school and there's a dude in the other team who's smoking cigarettes at halftime. He's got two kids, and you're like, really he's a school Yeah, that's sort of what it felt like. And then the next week you play them beginning, he's gone and they lose. What about the Wellington way Kato match up?

There, Carl.

Very even one. No one can split them, can The book is what's the odds?

Yeah?

So yeah, so a lot a bit of money coming. I guess for what I saw that two, I was eighty, but Wellington the obvious favorites.

Yeah, I don't know.

I mean, I know you you back your mamouly mean, I mean, I'm only backing the moly mean because I got cornered by James mcconey who just told me how how well Aaron Cruden is playing and how he controls the game. Then the Murders will win. Yeah, that's the that's the only bit of information that I've got to go on, and I'm running with it.

I can't argue against them, but I can't pick these. I couldn't pick them last week. I was telling everyone to just go chalk last week and then there were massive upsets and like you say, it could be the all b experience, or maybe it's not. That's what it's so hard to pick this week. Any big bets on.

The no nothing of nothing with sharing on that game. I do just want to I know you guys talked about it earlier in the week, but I just want to get my knife in. Why can around your a three way bet? Not good?

Yeah? South Caniberry?

Well, I had rode them to the Promised Land, they caught me all the way back up to lane and then in the end they got tipped up. On the weekend, the amount of hate I received if you didn't listen to the agenda this week.

It was great.

The videos.

I mean you would have seen them on social media, some of the videos, but I got seen a bunch that never got posted. People just filmed them just to send to me to tell me to go fuck myself. The messages I got, I got voicemails. There's all sorts of stuff, and the most confusing part is that a lot of people from South Canbury majority of that we have no idea who I am, what any of this

Yeah, yeah, you're you're legitimately defending is South Canterbury. Yeah, but you're associated with it. So that's the first time anyone hears about it. So I'm getting messages from people like, what is all of this about?

People? Tagging and stuff?

Anyway, Christmas is going to be great for you.

So I had to bring it up thirty nine games on the trot five years.

It was had to come to an anniversary too.

On the anniversary and people were saying, oh, you've cursed it, but I was like, how I've been on them every week for months now and all of a sudden one of them goes down and on the curse. I know people are hurting, they're looking for an out, and I'm I'm happy to do it a fucking I can help it anyway. So yeah, so the three ways been more difficult for me. This week because I don't have the world to go back to.

Yeah, it's it's semi's for Heartland as well, isn't it because it's the Swamp Peace Grand Final? Is it the Grand Final?

What's the other one?

Because he's a West Coaster playing somewhere.

So they have the Meads Cup and the Hawk Okay, so that's for like the sort of second division of Heartland. Yeah, basically, okay, So it's the Swamp Peace who and we've been given a hot tip car from one of the fans of the Swamp Foxes, Tims Valley, saw the captain eat a banana in two bites and he said, they're up for it. So he said, back in the Swamp Peace by thirteen plus guaranteed guaranteed.

I feel free to feed that one back to the bookies.

Oh yeah, I'll come up one of the dollar forty Two'll be into a dollar ten.

Immediately open a market on how many how many bites it will take them eat a banana on the sideline. All right, let's move on from the National Provincial Championship to the National Football League over there in the States. What are you seeing people jumping on this weekend?

There's a game that is about to kick off in a couple of hours. The Broncos and the Saints seventy percent of the money, and the Broncos had to head Courtland Sutton and Alvin Kamara are both best back when it comes to touchdown scores, and for good reason too. I think I'll wait until stats and PRESO ladies before sharing white, but I would suggest having a look at those guys. Someone's put a two and a half thousand dollar bet on the over thirty seven points in that match.

Okay, I don't know what the points.

I don't know nothing about the game to start hunting. To be honest, why we take Yeah, I need to get into it. But yep, carry on the book.

As I say, the books have opened a whole bunch of a bunch more player props to for NFL this week around pass attempts, rush attempts. I've lost my notes here, but there's a heap there that just sit perfectly for the same game multi. So if you're the same game multi punter, which I know you too, sick are.

Yep, have a look.

Unfortunately we are anything else across the NFL.

No, that was all I got was today's game.

So the International League's just been brought to my teacher. That actually starts tonight with Tonga taking on Australia. I just had the Kiwis game circled for next weekend. But Tongue are about five dollars and then.

Yes, that seems a dollar. Fourteen to five to seventy five. Australia are seventeen and a half point favorites, which is in my opinion, Okay, I might share these stats early, but Tongue won. Tong have beat Australia in twenty nineteen, they lost by seventeen or eighteen points. The year prior. Last year they taught England and they only lost their They lost their first two tests by four and ten. They haven't lost by more than twenty two points since

Yeah.

Plus, when you look at the teams that they named, you would say that there was probably a little under strength, not under strength, but there's been a lot of changes for that Australian team. And then conversely that Tongue and team looks powerful now.

They stack up pretty well like the obvious mismatches the other hookers, Harry Grant, the sevilla arvely. But yeah, almost every other position across the field. You could sort of flip a coin in terms of who's going to win that battle. So game they're really looking forward to tonight. Sixty percent of the money is on Tonga and that heads a head result, so not great for us if they win. Cam Murray, Harry Grant, Zach Lomax and the Hammer are the best backed try scorers. I think I

Fiji have added a new coach. I don't know if you guys heard this, you probably haven't kept the breast of the Fijian Rugby League coaching squad lately. Jared Hayne is the new one of the new coaches of the Fijian team. Is the headline on Fox The Fijian took on the tongue and woman in a weird opposed opposed training session.

All full contact and apparently the women were put on some shots.

Good good, because that's interesting that Fiji favorites because Papa New Guinea. You know, they pride themselves on their league and traditionally Fiji haven't been really that dominant or at all in rugby league, so they wants to change. Is apart from the sex piece coming on the squad, what's the what's what's the difference?

It's just a lot of really good players of Fijian heritage that play in the NRL versus players of Papua New Guinea heritage.

It's not a lot of them.

Yeah right, well there's.

A few of them.

But we we did our Rugby League podcast early this week and pap New Guinea or Fiji were four and a half point favorites. It's now sex right. We there was five of us on the pod and we're all over Papua New Guinea plus four and a half. But so to get six hours wild, theres peering genuine halves. I'm got the team in front of me, but it's Lochland, lamb in Whi or labor. I think the Fijian Halves. Yep, no good, no good. So I like, I genuinely think

Yeah. I'm looking at the teams now.

They've got Taruva fallback Fiji, Michael Civo on the wing, Michael Jennings, who's all of forty eight years old, wung of Blake, Semi Valame, Kevin Nagama, Kurt Donnie Donahue. And then you look at the other side of your labored lamb. To be honest, outside of that, I don't know a whole lot of the rest of that. Reece Martin didn't he win?

He's Martin or something.

And Jack Debellen is turning out for the Kummels.

Yeah, that's wild if you can believe that. All right, So that's the International Rugby League tonight. And then Liam Lawson gets to start this weekend first start.

Yeah, he's pretty much full time in that seat now for racing balls. So he gets the last six races of this season kicking off in Texas for the American Grand Prix. But he's got a penalty that he's like, I love of Ricardo's left and just left a little bit of a turn in the seat because he's got a there's an engine penalty or something because I've changed the engine. So he's got a grid penalty first up, so almost like a free swing for Liam Lawson. He's

So at of the punt is getting around.

In terms of Lam Lawson, I did quickly checked to see if he could win the whole thing that's at five hundred and one dollars. I think the large part of that is because it's probably been about fifteen years since anyone was overtaken on the track in Formula one, so he's got a long way to go. But how do you how do you play it for the uninitiated? How are people punting on the f one?

I think he's in a a patriarch bunch. We'll start with that.

Yeah.

They obviously haven't seen the news around the grid penalty either. Yeah, because Liam Lawson is getting smashed. He is the best back in all of the topics finished markets, he's the most backed for a podium finish, and he's the second best backed behind the step and to win out rights.

It's not going to happen. It's not going to happen, not this season.

No.

But it's one of those bits.

And I've done this with Grant not Grunt Fox, with Ryan Fox before where it's like what if he did and I.

Had ten dollars on five hundred and one, not.

Only does he win in his first start, but I also win five grand. Oh yeah, now, yeah, that's basically what you're saying if you're putting money on that.

So one of the great maltis has come across my desk this morning and it relates to Lam Lawson and whoever this person is, there are a national treasure. We need to get around them. Okay, Liam Lawson to win. Yeah, straight into the Warriors to win the premiership next year. Ten dollars on at odds of twenty thousand, five hundred and forty one to one. Yes, so this ten dollars will return just to take over two hundred and five thousand dollars.

I'd want more than that. I'd want more than that, you know what I would want more. What I would say though, is if that comes in, it comes in.

Yeah.

But when it comes in is right at the full time whistle of the NRL Grand Final and two hundred thousand dollars hits your account and you're in Sydney here at home Bush, just two hundred k burning a hole in your pocket. You'd send Liam Lawson twenty bucks and then just hit the ever living purse after that.

It's just an absolute speculator.

Yeah, yeah it is. I mean, look, he'll be doing well to make to get in the points. I think in the top ten. Liam Lawson, he'd be pretty stoked with that. Yeah, you could see he was pretty stoked. I think he came seventh or eighth in Singapore last year and he filled in and that was almost a victory and he didn't have a penalty on that as well. But I think if you are a punting person, I think the McLaren's are looking pretty good. Pstree and Norris.

Two ten for both McLarens to finish on the podium.

That's not bad, not bad. Actually, you know what that's I'm gonna put that in my three way? Is it too late? Have you put that on?

H No, No, it's not too late, not too lot at all.

I'm gonna do that. That's it's my three way.

But yeah, just remove that al right.

Any other big bits sort of come across your desk this morning?

Cow we do. Just before we move off racing, there was a competition a Punter of the Year last year held at Hastings. Should have been living them all day, but it got moved to Tarapa. But the punter of the year when ahead personally one punt of the year collected a ten thousand dollars bonus bet. They have put that ten thousand dollars bonus bet on I am me and the errors paying seventeen dollars.

Did they have to did they have to use that whole thing in one go? Is that what that?

I am man? Okay, that's a that's gutsy because I thought you were just going to say I wish I win or on j mac back gone for an outsider at seventeen, so what to return.

Hundred and seventy?

Well, it's a free swing, isn't it.

I was that Hunter of the Year last year and I was with the guy who won it last year and he put his he cashed fifty K during Punter of the Year and then he got his ten down a dollar bonus bet and he put that on I wish I went to place and when another thirty or forty K, I felt like this guy was up and about.

How do you win Punter of the Year? How do you win that? What's what's what's the story behind.

So's I can't remember what the number is, but you get it. It's five hundred dollars entry across the day. You've got to spend x amount on each per race head on and then basically at the end of the day, the person with the biggest amount of money is the winner.

All right, And you don't have to be that. You can do it online as well, and I think.

You've got to do it, and that BGP are doing King of the Punt this week. I think it was enttained Punter of the Year last week and you had to be on course or on course?

Sweet?

Okay, I'll just know thatt in my calendar for next year.

Yeah.

Should we put a team in?

Yeah?

Yeah?

Can you do it in teams? Can you?

Yeah? Yeah?

Oh okay, I'm all over it, brave enough to be in our team car?

Absolutely? Is this not what this is?

Yeah?

We are, Yeah, we are a team.

That's just it. We'll be lopside we did wait, yeah, it will be absolutely right.

All right.

Well then is it now time to put our training to the test with the Everest Mega Millions car.

Yeah, let's do it quick. Lame. Mili and I had a crack last week at an eight horse race. Yep, the group the group one might in power. I don't know if you've seen the results when.

I no, but I know I know we didn't win.

I've given us a C plus okay, okay, that's the pass.

Yeah we had a So I'm just going to read the numbers. I won't Yeah, the official results six one five four, eight, three to two seven.

Yeah, I had I had it going different. I've got unofficial results, but yeah, well except those.

Our runners were one, five, two, six, eight, three, seven four. So how many hits we had one and eight one in five and sex and the top four which all happened. Ye, and we had eight and three in the right spots. Okay, We're like, we're look, this was a test run. You didn't want to peak before the evers, so.

We'll tapering, like I said, C plus plus I don't mind it aight.

So we obviously waited for the barrier draw to come out car because obviously that you know we have seasoned or not that season. We were just delaying picking our twelve. I've gone for the We'll go through your theory first on how you picked yours mini.

Yes, okay, So this is my thing and what I've learned over the last couple of weeks and actually over the last few months of doing this podcast is if you're not an expert in something, it often pays to listen to the experts, people who have done the research, people who have looked in to crunch all the numbers, looked at form all that sort of stuff. My theory is no one has done more research on that than the tab, So I am going chalk here. I am

There?

One less decision to make fourth and third and fourth is where I've got to put my nuts on the line because both eight dollars, we've got traffic Warden and growing Empire. I'm going with the traffic warden to make the top three because I have sustained two one parking violation, one speeding ticket in the last week. So that's a huge omen for me, both in company cars as well.

That's my mega millions tip.

Right, you wouldn't have been far off last year, because I think there was I think I've said it. There was only one or two kind of in that third, fourth, fifth spot. Yeah, that weren't in the right order, and everything else was top to bottom.

Yeah, that's right.

There's also a randomizer button on there if you haven't made your picks yet, so you can hop on there and hit the randomized button.

That's a good way to do it.

Keep hitting that until it looks about right to you would be the way i'd go.

Yeah.

I've also go back in sorry last Yeah, you can also go back in and change your picks up until the competition closers.

Better kill me though, because if I change it, the part of me is like, if I change it and then the other one comes in, I'll never forgive myself. So I've committed to mine. I made him use today, and it turns out that mine's almost the same as yours, smile, because they've shifted around and it's almost I've just done a I've gone for chalk on the first three. I've gone for j Mac on Jolly Starr. I've gone I wish I wouldn't just to be pipped again at second

You've gone the You've gone the dead body on the sidewalk. It's a chalk outline.

Yeah, yeah, totally totally. But someone won this last year, Carl, so yeah, yeah, so yeah, it's totally doable. Ten million dollars. Also free swing and also can I yeah, free swings totally.

It doesn't cost you, So jump on the app and do it right now.

And just to clarify, do you put that ten grand in my ta B account? Sorry ten million?

Or do you really good quiestion. I know he's asking this.

I know's asking because if it goes into a ta B account, it'll never come back out again.

Also, it's like it's it's always been my slide grogging account, my ta B It's it's partly punting and partly slide grogging, where I can withdrawal and I can use it to do other activities. And if ten million pops into my ta.

B account, it's going on the next thing running.

The half of it will, but half of it will be my slide grogging account to the day I die, And no one, I mean, how much prs around this? Do you out me? If I win? This? Is it like lot?

Okay you specifically probably, Yeah.

That's an issue. That's an issue.

You'll out yourself. There'd be no way you could keep that under under your hat.

But yeah, and plus sorry, a video, we can do a video. We could, Yeah, looming.

Five of that's five of that's staying in your account.

Five million is getting tucked unto the collar of the next dog running.

That's so true.

But also I don't think it's paint into the account. I think you'll get it process money.

Oh shit, Okay, Well that's I've got to joint accounts. That's that's problematic. That's not the most.

Problematic thing about your joint account. I don't need to go on.

We don't need to go I've seen the screenshot on my joint account to Joe and I last night. Anyway, there's also though you've got the cash back on I wish I win up to fifty dollars bonus bit back. You put it on the win. If it doesn't win, you get it back and bonus bits. So another free swing, bonus cash even so another free swing, and I immediately I've had a swing at it immediately when I saw that, So get onto that as well as the Mega millions. You be stupid not to have a go at the

Yeah, that's right, Yeah, so exactly.

Oh well, you know what I've got. I've got a list here. I don't know if I want to voice it because I actually can't enter this. So how sick would it be if I gave my list and it actually came in.

Don't do it. My advice is don't do it because to the day you die, you were like I could have had ten million dollars.

So I wouldn't even then, But then you know you're an old mate who left a message last week and I said he likes to follow me in religiously.

Yes, maybe I could, maybe I could help him.

Well, okay, what's what's your numbers?

I hope he's listening, and you know, I'm happy to give out my email address. I've gone, I wish i'd win Jolly Star so one eight, then I'm going ten, Traffic, Warden eleven, storm Boy four, Ballonetina nine, Growing Empire two, Giga Kick seven, Sunshine and Paris six, Steffan mc neticut five, I am Me three, Private Eye and twelve Lady of Camelot.

Okay, so no one's giving Lady of Camelot a chance? Are they at fifty? Once?

Yeah, that's a camel What I love about what you've just done there, Carl is if that does win, we're going viral. So I'm pretty I'm pretty excited about that. Any last thoughts tips tricks on the Mega millions?

Uh nah, just as you said, already, have it go, have it, have a crack.

Alrighty, Let's take a quick breather, wipe the sweat off our brows, and we'll come back with grab a pen all right. Every week we have Carl putting his ear to the train tracks at the TB telling us what he's heard in the in the hallways there at TAB headquarters.

Just quickly, Carl, how did we get on last week?

Just quickly? I've been grounded for putting my ears to the train tracks with Yeah, long time ago. But a harness man had us a winner, chase a dream Habarna came eighth, I am Velvet fourth, missing seventh and street chase second. So not our best week, but we still had a winner.

And if we're going on top four's was it one?

Three out of three out of five, three.

Out of five?

Yeah, yeah, not too bad. So what have you heard this week?

The harness man's getting cocky and he's given us. He's given us two tips as best as at Addington tonight, Race twelve number three bought it playing a dollar fifty five, but he didn't want to give the dollar fifty five. He thought that was a bit cowardly. Yeah, though in the race prior and race eleven number seven gold bullion at two dollars fifty like it, and he has has suggested to Maulti them okay, okay, yep, three eighty seven, you'll get those.

I like that. I like that, and I like the bravery too.

Yeah, respect that nick on the line stuff. All right to the gallops, Ellislie tomorrow, Race two number one Lanakai three ninety and a dollar seventy five, Race six number eight The Odyssey three ninety and a dollar sixty.

And I'm going to put these on Instagram later on. Okay, so yeah, he's feverorously riding them all.

I'm living the brand. I'll I got my pin. I got email you too, Okay, good Ranwick Race eight number eleven Camichi five dollars and two dollars and then core Field Race one number one, Sugar Coat three ten and a dollar forty five and Race two number six Reserve Bank three sixty and a dollar fifty.

Okay, all right, I want to check those all on Instagram. Although actually what I should have done is just had you write the rest of them down, take a photo of that and put that on.

Instad You won't be able to read that. That's it's in code.

I cannot read that. Brilliant. Thank you very much for that.

Now you've already teased us a little bit with some of the stats.

But now it's time to give us.

Give it all to us in stats to impress the ladies.

Alrighty NFL today album. Kamara has scored at least one touchdown in each of the saints last four games following a home loss.

Presuming they just had one.

Yes, I hope so I didn't check. Portland Sutton has scored a touchdown in four of the broncos last five October games.

The season of seasonalsayer.

In the A League in the Phoenix game. The under one point five goals market has hit in six of Wellington's last seven A League Day matches.

Also first match of the season. Yeah, here's another hot tip. More were in stats and presto ladies. Auckland FC only undefeated club in the competition.

That's very true.

That's given me a massive soft on.

What about this one? The underdog has won three of Brisbane's last four A League matches. Oh yeah, AFC are the underdogs. Okay, yeah, okay, MLB this it's not great. So in the game happening right now the Yankees Guardians. Prior to the game taking place, the Yankees had led after three innings in each of their last four night games against the Guardians at Progressive Field. Are they he can tell I can tell you they were down two now after three innings.

Okay, No, well, I mean that one's already happened anyway.

That's not yet in the game. Later today, the Dodgers and the New York Mets. Dodgers have trailed after three innings and six of their last nine playoff games as favorites six and nine.

Nice, that's it. Finish on that brilliant finishing sixty nine.

I like that all right. Now it is time to put our three way hunch together. And Lane he had something I had but did have one.

I was going to America's Cup and I was going on for Tenure to win Race seven on Saturday, purely because I think they're on a bit of a roll the win that one. But I've changed my mind now after our Formula One chat, because I know pstre and Norris are going great guns. So I'm going to flip mine and I'm going both McLaren's on the podium at two ten for that US Grand Prix.

So is it under double markets double podium finish?

Yeh McLaren two ten yep to the bit slip ye okay. Obviously I have been pounding South Canterbury into the core of the earth. They lost last week. We've talked about we don't need to go. I'm going full spipe bet. And on top of the fact that we're hearing reports out of the Thames Valley region that their captain eats bananas and two bites, which is a huge omen, I'm going Thames Valley minus six and a half spipe bet against Mid Canterbury.

It's a dollar eighty seven obviously.

But have you seen the total points for that game. No, it is fifty nine and a half. That's wild, Yeah it is.

But that's how that's how it's been gone.

That's how heart Lane goes. You just run it from anywhere.

Yeah, so good.

Well, when you've got sixty four knock ons in every game, you know it's going to be there's a lot of opportunity.

Anyway, what have you got, carl My Chain.

I am going to go to the Pacific Championships tonight. Australia is Tonger and I'll take Tonger plus seventeen and a half at a dollar ninety.

I don't mind that.

Yeah, it's yeah, I would even have a little sniff at Tonga head to hea.

Yes, what are they paying head to hit?

Five dollars twenty something five seventy five, five to seventy five?

And where's it been played?

Is it not in Tonga? Over?

And I was somewhere.

It's in Australia somewhere. So you've got to presume hard and fast track en forced.

Okay, so we put one hundred dollars on that all selections when at seven dollars forty six, that will return six hundred and forty six. But more importantly, it will bring me level with Lane when his cars crash, and then I'm in there. It would also tick us over the magical thousand dollars amount, which is when we pay out the kiddy that we've got going. At the moment, ACC Kitty is sitting at seven hundred and four dollars, so we are sitting in prime position to tip that over.

Enjoy your weekend, Carl, Thanks very much for joining us. We'll see you next week. ACC Sports Book. Thanks to the tab