"The ACC SportsBook - July 19th"

Live for the Export Beer Garden Studio. This is the ACC Sportsbook thanks to the TAB.

The ACC Sports Book thanks to the TB.

Welcome in Carl Tyley from the TB Mate Live from Home. It's been a good week for the sports Book podcast, isn't it?

Mate? We are absolutely flying, like I don't know where to go from here, and either's you know, normally it's only one way. Up is the only way to go. But we're already at the top, so yeah, I don't know.

I've got to say the view from up here is absolutely tremendous. Sadly Glane couldn't join us Today's in witness Protection this week, but I know that he is very, very excited as well.

The group chat that we had going was was firing.

Up over the weekend if you missed it, our three way hunch came in for the first time ever. It's probably not something that we should be breaking about, you know, as hard as we are, but you've got to celebrate your wins, you know. If you don't mark these occasions, you know, they can just sort of fly by. I'm just trying to bring up what our three legs were. So you had a horse, you went on molt time yep was your horse. I went Greg Marju anytime try scorer, and then Lane had.

On No, I went you had the English.

Yeah, many fe were Boso and then Lane had Mark Talia and they were both in in the first half. It was just by halftime. At the All Blacks game, we were on it's just outrageous.

And we can't forget on top of the three way we talked about the top four racing multi and that cash too.

I mean it was I'll be honest, I put that on.

I had like three dollars jingling around in the bottom of my account, so I chucked that full leg the top four MAULTI on just to keep track of it.

It actually wasn't paying that much.

It was only around two three four dollars maybe if you put them all in, but I just wanted to keep track of it to see if it did come in.

And boy did it every single one of them. Now granted one of them did come in fourth.

But I think two of them came fourth.

Our theory was if you're multi them all laptop four like your home and host, and you.

Were exactly and the last one beer on the loose was Rand mcgrace nine, and I think he came fourth by about a nose. So, like the Great Dominic Toretto said, it doesn't matter if you win by an inch or a mile.

Winning is winning, Winning is winning.

It's about family and the acc Sportsbook family is up big this week. Congratulations to everyone who irresponsibly followed us in on those bits across the weekend. And we've got more to cook up later on at the end of this podcast as well. But before we do, I reckon we rip straight into NRL. I I'm in a Rugby league mood this week off the back of Origin hell of an Origin game as well. I think the punters.

Yeah, I'm disappointed to hear that. Man. I'm I'm all over the Wars here. I think it is obviously going to be a very tight game. The Raiders. We've got a handful of superstars back Jamal Foggery. Yeah, they're playing a dollars seventy Warriors aro out to two dollars fifteen. I put this, this could be the Warriors season. I think they get this when they could go on a run. If we don't win this, it's going to be a lot tougher.

We then need to win like six in a row. I think after that, don't we?

Yeah? Yeah yeah. In terms of the punting though, split fifty to fifteen the head to head, So I guess punters are with you then, and I don't really know where to go.

Yeah, but.

We've got twice as much money on the Warriors at the point start, So that two and a half point underdogs. Okay, can you remember what that means?

Yeah, it means that they will either win or by two.

Points three points. Three points yes, yeah, no, sorry, you are right? Two points Yeah the tables of ten. Yeah, DWZ and AFB are best backed in the first try score market, which is probably no surprise to anyone. Yeah, and then Chanelle Harris Tavita backed anytime.

Yeah.

I think if you were going to go a vibe punt this weekend, rts out to the wing. He's two dollars and two cents to score anytime. That's probably where I would be leaning if I had to go one way or another.

That point start minus two and a half.

At that point you're basically saying we win because it's either that or it's like a golden point.

Thriller and we lose.

We can't do that again and that Yeah, I don't think any amount of money that I won off that would, you know, stem the flow of pain after losing to a drop goal. But you know that the hard part about this game is, you know everyone's saying, yes, our backs are up against the wall. We have to win this game to keep our season alive. So do Camber. So the desperation is not higher on one side or the other. I guess what's gonna change it is if Mitch Barnett and Kirk Capewar back up from Origin.

It was a.

Fucking brutal game of rugby league on Wednesday night. But they do seem like two dudes who would back up, don't.

They, especially Barnett now that he will be given the captain's armband with the too out the rest of the season. Yes, I wouldn't be surprised to see him back up. I guess it'll be a matter of how many minutes they end up playing. I've actually got a good Mitch Barnett stat for later on the pod.

Good. I'm looking forward to it.

We mentioned RTS on the wing? Was it two any time? Have a look at well this is I'm heavy a look at two more tries for four doors. Think that the halves peering. You know, early in the season, all we could do was go right. Yeah, we're a bit more balanced now, but I feel like they favor the left. Yeah, and that is where RTS will be. So I can see a little double in the future for Roger.

Yeah, I don't mind that they do with to mighty luck to go to that left edge because he likes, you know, right kicker likes to put it out on that on that left edge, and that's exactly where Roger will be. They'll be looking to test out there shining new toy on the wing as well.

I just two on Roger seems I would hate for Roger to have us as chick to score one.

Try and me to be disappointed at the end of the game because he didn't score two. You know, it's probably how why I wouldn't go for that one.

But the beauty of that is you can bet on both options.

No, that is a great point. That is a great point an otherwise origin affected week end of rugby league. If the punter is getting around any other games, there's not too much sort of value to be seenund there is a.

All over South's in the head to head market dollar thirty six. They are pretty even split Knights and Broncos. The Knights are dollar ninety eight underdogs at home, the interesting one Storm two dollar ten outsiders at home. There's excuse me, twice as much money on the Storm against the Trucks there.

Yeah, I don't mind that, because you've got the Mountain Storm at the top of the NRL table at the moment, and you've got them at two dollars ten. Now the Roosters, you would probably say the form team at the moment, But anytime you've got the leading team and the combat two dollars ten, I can see why the punters are going for it.

I've got a little just trying to dig up a stat from our podcast earlier in the week. This fixture the Storm Roosters home crowd basically means nothing. The visiting team has won seven of the last thirteen between these two a and a single single digit margin. Sorry, Yeah, nine of the last seventeen have been by six or less.

So this one's going to be tight, that's what you're saying. Yep, yep, And the line seems to suggest that as well. Plus two and a half anytime it's under like four, I don't really want to get mess with Yeah, it is, it is. I don't want to mess with it. I mean, if it comes off, you're you're a gifted gambler. But if it doesn't, so what we're thinking. But yeah, that

Yeah, I guess the Friends have had their troubles away from home. They don't. They haven't been backing up wins that of late. I did say state when I was hunting for some stats earlier that they have covered the line in a number of their games following a win. So I think that twelve and a half points is the line at the moment, which is quite a lot considering the Dolphins have spent majority of the season in the top four.

Yeah, you're right about them not traveling very well. I feel like earlier, only about a month ago, we were talking about how they just won their first game in Sydney and yes in the club's history.

Yeah, so that plus Cleary, Yeah yes, yeah.

A lot of people are going to lose a lot of money bidding on Nathan Cleary this weekend, I think, and I can't help myself but have a look at what Dave Hafeed is paying for the Gold Coast Titans, who are two dollars eighty five outsiders against Manly for good reason as well, he's three dollars twenty five, which I think is good money.

Yeah, that's an interesting one that I guess that merely put an number on the Nights last week. But the Titans have been going okay, the one three on the trot now the you know the big underdogs, they tend to go well as well. They're seven and a half point underdogs. This has the returns to Brookvale like the plus seven and a half looks pretty good for me.

Yeah, Titans was this the matchup earlier on in the year where the Titans really pushed the Seagulls.

It was like a thirty six thirty four or something like that.

I feel like the I've always been saying this year about the Titans. They're like a They're a glass cannon team. They can put up forty points on you and still lose a game like that. They've got strike weapons, yeah, thirty four to thirty Yeah exactly, They've got strike weapons all over the field. They can score from anywhere, but they also leak like a sieve. So it's I think tri scorers are the way to play that game. Your sabs, your turbos, yeah, your forfeeders, o Kennys.

There's plenty of them.

Yeah.

There is probably spent far too long talking about a Gold Coast Titans game. Anything else that the punters are liking to look of in the NRL, No.

Not really, nothing that stands out.

No, No, onto the rugby Union, which continues this weekend. Of course, we're playing Fiji tomorrow. Almost unbeckable today in New Zealand at a dollar and five, although Matt and Jerry this morning we're talking about mortgaging their house and putting it on New Zealand, for because if you put a million dollars on, which we're trying to do the math on their gender podcast this morning, if you put a million dollars on New Zealand at a dollar and it was a dollar and six, that spits back about

It would. I would sort of step in here and say, please gain more responsibly punters. Yes, of course, of course, you say, unbeckable. Someone has put five thousand dollars on the AB's at a dollar on.

Six, So what does that pay them? It's like sixty bucks? That doesn't yeah, oh yeah, sorry question Without wording.

The math live on a calculator right now, I get sixty dollars.

Yep, work it that.

That seems like a lot of energy spent for sixty bucks.

It does, doesn't it?

And I also kind of think like if it does miss, you're just going to be so gutted that you risked so much for so little and then lost it. What are the punters liking around this game. Are they getting on the line as their try scorers? How do you like?

Again?

The same person asked me this morning and I said I wouldn't sort of go near the Warriors game. I sort of feel the same about the All Backs game. I don't really know where the value is.

Yeah, punters, you bang on with your your thoughts. There, punters are all over the line. He's in on twenty five and a half point favorite. It's there's fifteen times as much money on the All Blacks at the line. Yeah, dollar eighty seven there, Caleb Clark's getting smash your first try scorer, and the debutante Billy Proctor best backed in the anytime market.

Oh so the Procter family getting heavily invested into into their son cousin nephew's debut.

Fun fact, I just had breakfast at a cafe down the road that Billy Proctor's anti owns.

Oh wow, there you go.

I'm just looking through the try the anytime try scorers, and a name has really popped out to me here at two dollars and thirty five cents at one point, the greatest rugby.

Union player on the planet.

At one point, I think arguably one of the best rugby league players in the world as well. Semi rad Radra is playing on the wing for FIGI this weekend. He's at two dollars thirty five. I don't mind that.

Anytime you could get he's playing n RAL. Anytime he gets Semi with a two in front of his name, yeah, was very very probably profitable for punters he's did he say he's on the wing because he's been normally has been playing in the centers. Right, If he's on the wing, that two thirty five is very nice.

I will check out the teamless, but yeah, I was thirty five for him. Is his pretty pretty juicy? I'm just trying to dig up there.

Yes, he's on the wing, yep, yeah.

Eleven Simi Rodric geez. I don't know they can score from anywhere. He I think he's still one of the highest paid players rugby players.

In the world. Yeah, I don't mind that.

Is this is this a the bookie's sort of undervaluing undervaluing Fiji here. I know they're obviously not a top ten nation, but they've proven, especially in sort of World Cups and tournaments, that they can bang it with some of the best they can. Yeah. Sorry, I guess travel comes into it.

Travels a big part of it.

I also think the history, because we did like a throwback Thursday segment yesterday where we had a look at when we played Fiji in nineteen ninety seven. We beat them by seventy points on that occasion, and that's basically been the score line every time we've played them, except for in twenty twenty one, which might have been the last time we did play them, which was the closest game we had, and we scored fifty eied and they scored twenty something. So I don't mind New Zealand minus

Yep, I like it.

The Open Championship teed off overnight as well. We put one of our agenda punts on Dan Hillier top forty finish. It's not looking real likely, point, is it.

It seems like the guys that went out early had the better the better go of it. Yeah, Dan was in that. Having said that, Dan was in that bunch and he's finished plus five. Yeah he's he's definitely not out of it. Obviously needs to make the cut, have a decent have a decent go tomorrow. There's a guy Daniel Brown, never heard of him. He is minus six leading it. So I can't win. Shane Lowry though form

Were Hendrew's around plus three and Cabori was plus two as well.

I think.

Yeah, okay, so pretty good start. Before before it all teed off twelve percent of the money, which sort of best back was Rory McElroy. He had an absolute shocker. Yeah.

I was just talking about the slice off the tee where the railroad was down the right hand side of the fairway.

Yep.

Yeah, that's as as someone who has sliced the ball across you know, a road, a train tracks into the ocean, you know, into paddocks.

That's that'll wreck you round. Whenever you do something like that.

If you know it doesn't matter if you slice it, if it leans on the field on the next fairway over. But when you hit it to somewhere that's not part of the golf course, that's a real demoralizer. And so I think that's going to be tough for poor Rory to come back from that.

Yeah, very very familiar with that situation myself as well. Min I.

Were there any big winners from across the week at the tab.

There was. There were a couple of really sick ones too. We had a ninety nine dollars five leg racing multi that sounds like an account emptier. Yeah, that's it won nine and a half thousand dollars.

Oh my god, revolting.

How many five legs? Yeah, basically what we did last last week. They obviously put a little bit more on than we did. There's one thousand dollars sixteen leg table tennis multi that won sixteen thousand dollars.

Yeah, that's good. Shit, that is good.

The short shortest leg in that one was a dollar eleven and the longest leg a dollar forty two.

It's all the favorites.

I kind of feel like that bet to me screams of either someone who's just gone bugger at all the favorites or someone who is a massive sicko for table tennis and reckons that it's a blind spot for the TB because those niche sports sometimes if you're really into them, you can find a bit of value. It's one or the other.

Though, table tennis betting boomed during COVID. It was one of the only sports that you could you could still bet on, and there's certainly been a I guess a cult following of table tennis punters since that time, So I wouldn't be surprised if it was the latter of your two situations them.

And I okay, I don't mind that.

A couple others a three dollars four leg twenty six plus winning margin multi on under twenty basketball. Oh, such four legs, and they were all twenty six plus in the winning margin market, and they all came in three dollars into one point three thousand.

Oh my god, when you said one point three, I thought we could say a million for a second.

And then a twenty dollars three leg football maltie that cash just under five thousand dollars. There was two two correct scores on that at nine dollars and eight dollars and a match result draw at three dollars forty.

So that when I hear these things, I always want to see what the rest of their like betslips look like. Did they just you know, like that week when you pluck something like that out of obscurity. Did you just nail that one? Or how much other shit did you throw out the wall across the weekend as well? That's what I would like to see. Unfortunately, we'll never get to see it anymore. Should we take a quick break, No, let's say a wee rest, let's take a breather.

We'll be right back. Pause the podcast now and grab a pen for the hottest tips from around the tab office.

I just want to remind people listening to this that this is what we're talking about at the top of the podcast, where every single one of these tips we put on top four and they all came in. I'm not saying that past performance guarantees you know, the performance of these tips this week. All I'm saying is the track record is good. That's all I'm saying. You know that the table is hot.

We talked about this last week where we said, you know, we thought our you know, top four hit rate was sitting at about eighty or ninety. We can confidently say after a week of data, we're at one hundred percent.

Yeah.

So man, look, let that inform your bits as you will. But all we're saying is we're going all right. So what have you heard around the TB office this week?

Huh?

We'll do a real, real quick recap the five tips we had last week. This week, so it was monk Tim had a win, Blue Sky at Night came fourth, one A Ruer one I Ruher came first, in flight came first, and Bear on the Loose was the one that got us in my nose.

Top four here on the list is one of my favorite names for a horse.

Great great mental image, up there with Craigg, second only to Craig.

All right, I've got him at one, two, three, four, five. I might be getting little bit out over my skis here with six, but let's let's do it. Eddington Race nine tonight, which is harness number five. Rustenberg out a dollar eighty has won two or four starts starts looks very promising. First Crack tonight at the standing start as opposed to the mobile I like to think of it as the flying lap so if if he gets away and starts good, he should be very hard to beat.

Don't mind that.

One tomorrow, Race one number three impressive Bell four dollars forty with odds boost. This this comes from the guy that gave us mult time last week and said just wins.

So okay, well, what's the book on this one this week?

Then see the little liner you mean proven on a heavy track.

Okay, that's all I've got is the is the track heavy? We'll have to take the word for it.

The track is heavy.

It's good enough for me.

Yeah. So that was a race one number three Roger Rod. Race three number I haven't written the number down. The name is Martel. Martel, give me a second. It is number four. Okay, should position them south up front from the jump and be hard to track down. You can get Martel at five dollars with odds boost.

So I boosts on all day tomorrow it is.

There's only five runners in that race.

Oh see, that's that's peak top four sort of territory there.

That's the anchor of our Malti.

And there's only seven in the in the first race as well.

Brilliant.

Rose four up, sorry, Raised four at Rosehill. I love this pure alpha yeah at two dollars.

Eighty yep, perfect, that's so much for pure alpha.

And it gets more alpha ish. You've got the two alphas in the mix here. J Mack Chris Waller. That's probably what you need to know.

Did they rename the horse when J Max said he'd ride it?

I guess so that's the only the only reason that you'd name a horse like this.

You kind of have to.

But never been out of the cornilla in five starts? So is actually a pure alpha?

Yeah?

So it's Rosehill RaSE four, Rosehill Race six. Going back to the well from last week, in flight is backing up. You can get two dollars forty in flight.

It didn't let us down last week?

Did it did not? And the last one Eagle Farm Raise seven number one zappud at two dollars forty three starts, two wins and a third.

Okay, brilliant.

All right, Well, hopefully you managed to job all of those ones down, and if you didn't, we'll blast them up on the old Instagram page.

Here's a tip for pund is.

What I do is because it's up on the story, you bring the story up and then you you know, you can like swap tabs across on you if you're on the old iPhone, so you swipe up. Then you go to your tab account and it'll hold the picture there for you. And the other thing that it's done, it's rarely bringing families together, is my missus will sit there and hold the Instagram story on her phone so that I can place the.

Beds on my phone. And if that's not love, then I don't know what it is.

You've I send these to you in an email. Why are you holding the story?

Because it's about bringing families together, Carl, you know her and I wouldn't have that beautiful moment if we did that.

Very good.

Speaking of romance, let's just rip straight into stats to impress the ladies.

All right, nice, easy one to start. Warriors Raiders. Warriors have won three in a row. First the Raiders.

Yes, yeah, they smashed them twice last year. That was the turnaround of this season.

Could happen.

Sticking with that, sticking with that game, you should be able to find a market somewhere for the Warriors to win either half. Yes, Canberra have lost either half and each of its last eleven matches.

Wait, Cambra have lost either half.

So they won't they won't won't win.

They don't win both.

Cool breaking news. Yeah, Camber now dollars sixty eight, Warriors out to two dollars twenty What do they know? What's what's I'm going to keep going and try and look at Instagram for detail. You keep going, I'll have a look, all right, I said, I've got Mitch Barnett stat Mitch Barnett has scored a try in each of the warriors last two night matches.

Oh, he likes it at night.

He likes it at night. And you can get Mitch oneette anytime at eight dollars seventy five.

Oh my god.

Yeah, yeah, go back to baseball. I know you love these ones. Diamondbacks versus the Cubs. The Dbacks have led after the third innings in each of their last nine games. Versus in our Central opponents that hold a losing record.

Yeah, I loved I've got a d Backs had Actually I didn't know what team it was for the first six months.

I owned it up.

The d Backs super fair last one to the tennis Nadal versus Navonne and the ATP Bustard quarterfinal. Nadal has failed to cover the game handicap, which is three and a half, in each of his last ATPI ATP quarter finals against opponents from Argentina.

I don't know how you managed to dig these ones up, but it's powerful stuff when you do that one.

How one really gets me. I love the baseball ones.

So very good.

It's like third innings on a Wednesday against left handed opponents from single parent households. I don't know how they keep track of them. I've had a quick look through sosh Meda. I can't find anything that would have affected the line. I don't know if maybe they've heard that one of mitchure Kurt aren't going to back up.

Don't know. Maybe it was a massive bit, smashed it in a bit.

Maybe anyway, time for our last segment of the week, and I've had a couple of messages on social media from people asking to get involved in the three way, So I think maybe from next week if you're open to it, And obviously we have to run it past Lane when he's back from witness protection, but do we expand the three way into a four way and bring the listener.

In that's Larry.

Are you open? Are you open to another person in the room.

Hey, I'm open to anything. Man, I'm down for a good time.

Nothing's a problem, all right, Okay, I think we'll have to do that next week. I was going to ask Lane for his leg and I didn't, so again this week we're just going to have to give him another leag So if you were tossing up between two for our three way, feel free to check both them in. But I'd like to start with my bet and we are going to the Rugby Union World where this weekend I would like to take And this is a bit of a a sort of a learning thing for me.

I'll just seeing a look at that game. The total points is sixty three and a half, like a South Africa running out a children's team, because surely the line should be sixty three and a half. Well that's exactly maybe Portugal good at rugby.

I'm not sure that's exactly what I thought. Nah, I can't imagine Portugal are good at rugby.

You can't. You cannot bet on South Africa to win this game.

That's market suspended, even if they've I mean, if I look at the triscorers, I'm sure I won't recognize.

A lot of the names.

My Pimpie's playing Curly, Orensey's playing Lacano Am who was the World Player of the Year just a few years ago. I think I think they can get taled out Portugal by more than thirty six and a half.

So I'd like to check that one. And that's my league.

South Africa minus thirty six points against port deal very nice.

I just just I text my WA's man and I said any news. He said, both still playing so far, so not sure, but anyway, my leg I'm going to stick with one of our tips in the racing again this week. It's done as well, Rosehille number six. I'm going with in Flight at two forty to get fourth win in a row and second win for us.

Yeah.

I like that in Flight's starting to become a regular feature if you're okay with it. I'd actually like to suggest a third leg that we could put on for James Michael Lane. There's a couple of different options that maybe I'll get you to pick from. I think that if he were here, he would either want to double down on last week's win, which was Mark Talaire, who's

Let's get another one another belt a. Yeah, okay, let's we're in winning form. Let's hold hold form until we get this fourth man in. Okay, so do we go with Caleb Clark. Let's go Caleb Clark. Auy we molted them together six dollars thirty seven.

Yeah, that's about where we want to be playing. It's nice and safe. I don't think Caleb Clark's done our odds any wonders, but he will help us bring it home. So that is our three way that'll be up on sosh Met as well, and with any luck, next week we'll be putting together another video congratulating ourselves for heading two consecutive three ways, and with any luck, we'll be bringing in a fourth person into the room as well. Thank you very much for joining us this Friday morning, Carl.

Yeah you too, man I, thank you for having me.

Er.

We'll spend here at the ACC Sports Book, but our friends at the tab are good to go.