You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams. The JSC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock shadow. And as always on a Wednesday, I speak to Skulk Lowe, Portfolio Manager at PSG Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town. Just imagine, Skulk, you hadn't been in the markets. You took six, seven months off or something, and you phoned me up and said, what's happened? I said, well, let's do a podcast about it. And I read all the things. that had occurred.
You hadn't read a newspaper or anything, assume. And I spoke about tariffs, I spoke about the war between Russia and Ukraine still going on, Gaza being obliterated, trade talks all over the place, the Fed and the White House at loggerheads. You'd probably say, well, the market would have at best gone sideways, probably come down maybe, you know, five to 10% on all that. Now, here we are, record highs again. As I speak, actually, record highs on the S&P futures. Extraordinary, Skulk.
Yeah, that's just exactly my point. If you put me in some capsule, time capsule, took me out, told me all those things, and then you said, and the JSE has closed over 102,000 points. Can you believe it? NASDAQ is nearing 22,000 points, and the S&P 500, 6,500 points. I would have said you are berserk. There's absolutely no way that the one thing you told me will lead to the other thing you told me. But yet, here we are. But it's an interesting scenario.
I mean, you know that we follow this, the CME Fed tool. Yes, the CME being the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. That's it. That's it. It's basically trading the probabilities of a Fed cut. And, you know, for the listeners that's been in that time capsule that Lindsay just described, if you were in this time capsule for the past year, I've got a big surprise. Because last year, this time around, they were forecasting six rate cuts until the end of 2025. We went into 2025 with no cuts yet.
And they said, well, we're going to have at least four cuts. And here we're sitting with three Fed meetings left for the year, and we haven't seen one. But, I mean, I think a little bit more than a week ago, I think when the last Fed meeting kept the rates unchanged, I think it was about two weeks ago, that CME probability tool had the rate cut only at 60%. Now, it's high, but it's only trading at 60% just after the cut. That moved up to... to end of last week to about 80, 81%.
And today that thing has now gone to 99.9%. So I think that's the one point. I think, you know, we're now looking at the market that's telling us we will most probably see the rate cut. And here's the, I think, the interesting one, Lindsay. What do you think? I mean, I know you're going to ask me the question, but I'm going to throw it at you before I answer this. Okay. Do you see them lowering it a quarter of a percent or half a percent?
It depends who goes into the hot seat and also who is going to replace the vice chair. Was the woman that resigned a vice chair of the Fed, Scalp? I think she was, wasn't she? I can't say, Lindsay. I'm not 100% sure. Anyway, they're putting up various candidates.
for the replacement it depends on that and depends how the mood of the room of the fomc has has changed but and has allowed to to change because if there is influence from the white house then we're in big trouble because we're going to get rate cut after rate cut and as you quite rightly say maybe a half a percent in order to play catch up because they call trump calls what's his name jay powell too late powell so So call them a few other things as well, just as a matter of interest.
But yeah, that was most probably the kindest ones of them all. I think that 50 basis points would be, would firstly delight the market, then shock the market. And everyone would say, no, this is not good. And it would have the opposite effect and markets would come down after an initial rally. But I think what they'll do is say, OK, half a percent now and the next meeting, very good chance, another half a percent.
because inflation is only 2.7%, etc., etc. And that will come from the mouth of Trump, essentially. That's my thought, yeah. Yeah, so that is a theory, and I think it's sort of a if you put on probabilities on those, it's most probably go towards the lower side. But I wouldn't disregard it. I wouldn't throw it out of the window in totality because you just mentioned it. I mean, inflation, it's still trading 2.7%.
So their inflation clearly, or the official inflation numbers, clearly has been under control. And we know what Trump's won. Trump.
from point one employee interest rates to come down and come down in quite a bit so so here's where i'm going with this i mean we've just come out of out of a well we're not out of it yet uh still 48 companies to report uh on the s p 500 so that's more or less 10 so so we've got 90 of the companies that's that's supported this time around and and when you look at the the beats as we sit year the companies that beat over 80 so this is
this is a And just to explain that, beat expectations from various analysts. So there'll be a group of people that sit down and say, I think NVIDIA's earnings will be this, this, this. And they take an average of that. And if it beats it, that's a beat. It's not an exact science, though, is it? And I think we've had a chat about this before, Skulk. It's actually quite inaccurate. You know, for the listeners out there now frantically trying to find any form of target prices or consensus.
They're actually quite inaccurate, but what it does give you is when the market beat, then it is upbeat. The market do tend to run a bit further. Now, every month I do what I call the uptick in markets. I run through all these different valuations.
And like many other investment specialists, I do think that the… the u.s market is totally totally overvalued i think it's overheated it's it's really trading at dangerous levels um but there is a big but now you need to ask yourself the question what will be the catalyst the catalyst for for i let's look at so many possibilities skulkin so many that we don't even know about that will just come from nowhere and we'll say oh my goodness we thought it would be this we thought it
would be test it's something completely different I wonder what it might be. What are your thoughts? That's it. That's what you call a black swan. But let's take the most obvious ones. I mean, we've mentioned the Russia, Ukraine. We've talked about Israel, Gaza. We've talked about a few of these geopolitical unrest. But I mean, for the past, let's call it a few weeks, things have been fairly quiet. I mean, these ceasefires, sort of tongue in the cheek, has been holding up.
you know fairly well so so let's say trump's negotiation managed to keep things fairly quiet again for the next few few weeks or months so so that's that's the one that i think will be a catalyst if you see a break suddenly there's this there's some unrest again a big political event i mean i'm not going to call things like uh uh nuclear or any of those just a big event that could be a massive, massive break in the market because then suddenly the market will say the valuation is just crazy.
And with this big event, we could have a massive, massive implosion. But things seem to be quiet. You know what makes me worried is that every day says, yeah, it's another day, it's another S&P high, and there's no one sounding any warnings, no red flags or anything. They're just sort of accepting that it's going up. because it's going up and that will happen in perpetuity. It's not going to. We know that.
Immediately you become complacent and sanguine about the market is when it comes and kicks you in the teeth. The market usually don't crash when everybody calls it overheated. It's when people start finding excuses why it's not overheated anymore, when it is, in our fact. So let's... continue this theory. So let's say there's no geopolitical crack for the next few months. Then the second catalyst will most probably be a disappointment in either economic data or company data.
Let's take the second one first because we've already mentioned the beats. And we've got 10%. We've got 48 companies left to report on the S&P 500. And then It's going to be done. Next three months, there's not going to be a hell of a lot of news coming out of any of these 500 companies. It's going to be quiet. It's going to be. It's going to be business as usual. So that will take us most probably onto another three months, or let's call it October, November.
Then we will go into quarter three results. And you need to ask yourself, if the status quo is currently just kept unchanged, and we do see that interest rate cut in a month's time. Let's not talk about the half a percent. We just talk about a quarter of a percent. One would expect that equities in general globally would still react positively on the news that now interest rates have been cut by a quarter of a percent.
And we will most probably see another quarter of a percent at the next meeting, which will be the 29th of October. So there will be no, let's call it, disappointment in the coming weeks.
they will actually be... good news upon good news and one can expect that there won't be a major crack in the earnings um this good reporting for for the quarter three that will bring us to the economic data well imf just just came out with a report and they adjusted the the economic growth for the globe upwards yes in africa we kept unchanged at one percent but in general most of the these this is called developed countries, US included, were adjusted positively upwards.
So you would need to ask yourself if inflation remains at 2.7%, which is done now, and we start seeing rate cuts, that should be positive for the economy or at least for the forecast for the economy. So there won't be any, I would say major, major... cracks in the economic data that's going to be. I can tell you what's going to happen with economic data, and that is that it is going to be under the influence of Trump and the White House.
And I think what is going to happen is that really big, smart investors will look at this and say, this is leaning now even more towards a dictatorship. The dictatorship first came with things like, for example, putting the army on the streets of Washington. D.C. and threatened to do that in all other cities. This is a dictatorship. And then it went on with him replacing people, the president, that is, with people that he likes rather than the people that are already there who he doesn't like.
And so we all knew that a dictatorship was in its infancy. But I think what they'll say is if the economic data starts to be massaged by the White House, they will say, that's it. I'm not going into the US markets because... I am afraid of what is going on. And the first one that will crack, despite the fact that interest rates are coming down, will be the bond market. And if the bond market starts to go, then the equity market will follow. That's my logical catalyst.
My illogical catalyst, my black swan, is that there will be, and you can choose yours as well in a moment. I'd be interested to see what you think your black swan is. I think it will be Trump's health. I think Trump. Will, I don't think he will, I say he could suffer a health scare. It's already been spoken about. He's grossly overweight. He's not moving as well as he used to. He's fatter than he was when he came to power in January.
And he could either be hospitalised for a long time because of a serious health issue, or he may, heaven forbid, die. I mean, I don't like him, but I don't want him, I don't wish him any ill. That's my black swan, Trump's health. That's two great ones. I mean, that is really, really, I mean, if something like that should happen, yeah, that's major. I mean, that's like, I've often said my biggest worry is not the quality of the business within Berkshire, either way, it's just...
Having such a well-known CEO in Warren Buffett that's already 90 years old. But I mean, even that, I think if something should happen to Warren Buffett, I think the company has been settled and put together in such a manner that it shouldn't have a massive effect. But I think if something should happen to Trump, that he can't continue his presidency. Wow. And they bring in the hillbilly J.D. Vance. Goodness me. All hell will break loose. No, I think that's it.
That will most probably be the biggest crash. But, I mean, that's the point that I'm making. So we're sitting on the one side that, you know, where we're going with this is this is such a volatile point on the US market. It's extremely expensive. It's trading at massive valuations. These companies that's produced, I mean, there's this very beautiful graph where they look at the earnings growth.
um on on the magnet back seven and the earnings growth on the remaining 493 stocks and actually the earnings growth you know still it's still about i would say two three quarters back it was most cases about double double the earnings growth you know the the s p has grown hence the fact why they're trading at these exuberant um exuberant valuations i mean nvidia eight percent of the total s p 500 this is this is the largest weight that any one company has has
had in in the s p 500 ever ever there's never been a company that carried in an heavier weight and there's a few of these companies but 80 and we're not talking about you know the the the times for example when uh mass pass was such a massive something something like 20 of the jsc at one point if you know better than I do. But we're not talking about a relatively small market like the JSE. We're talking about the S&P 500, for goodness sake. Exactly.
It is crazy to think that, I mean, the S&P 500, and let's continue with that. So if you look at the weight of the MSCI world within the... S&P 500 within the MSCI world. Very quickly, I want to get the updated because I know it's increased as well. Currently, if you look at it, it's 72.1%. So if you invest in a, let's call it any tracker or a company that follows the MSCI world index, you're pretty much 72% invested in the S&P 500. That weight is 8% pretty much just in one company.
8% of that index is one company in the video. So it's crazy. But I mean, where I'm going with this, if you look at the continue, that graph, it's now got to a point where the growth of these companies still outperformed the rest of the S&P 500, but not to these margins we've seen a few quarters back. But the forecast looking... I think it's looking at four quarters or eight quarters, two years.
It's showing you that it's going to taper down to pretty much the same earnings growth to the rest of the S&P 500. Yet these companies are trading at multiples more than double compared to the market. So if any of those things that you mentioned, or I mentioned, is a geopolitical or misses in consensus, This market could really, I mean, I'm talking about this market, the US market could really trace, see one of the biggest corrections that it's seen in history.
Okay, so let's hope it doesn't scale. We're speculating, but it's educated speculation. I'm very pleased with what we've come up with. I mean, it'll probably be something completely different, but at least we've given it a stab. Meanwhile, we have to look at what really drives the markets, and that's companies. Anything on the Stock Exchange News Service today? Any announcements from JSC-listed companies, please, of note? We had a big day. I mean, a big, big day.
I'm going to run through them very, very quickly because I think we've took a lot of time sitting in an environment where and I just want to continue to say I'm not thinking the market's going to crash. I actually think that be careful just selling out now over the short-term period, all this good news, because the thing about a balloon is it doesn't burst when you just blow it up.
and it becomes a bubble it eventually blows that that final we just have that final blow and then it goes like so but anyway market was i mean we had us at a big time i mean i'm going to start with with the company that's that's been sort of um in the news for the past four or five years not for the right reasons i mean been under under continued uh distress i mean yeah Cecil. That's the top of the leaderboard, yes. Yes, yes. I mean, Cecil.
So for the past, let's call it a few weeks, it's gone from a company to really gone from bad to worse. I think it started off the year around about the 70-odd levels, and then it went down to 50-odd levels. You know, today it's back to just shy of that 100-rand mark, 97.90. It's up 4% for the day. And that's on the back on a very solid trading statement. I mean, yes. I mean, there's a lot of… Funders out there will tell me, oh man, Skark, you're going to call this? You know, great.
There were so many once-offs. I mean, we had the Transnet payment, the once-off payment of $4.3 billion. That's not going to repeat itself. There was a few other once-offs as well, bigger once-offs. That doesn't matter. I mean, we know that suddenly momentum is getting back into this company. You've mentioned it many times. You could see the company's former base.
very similar to the likes of some of these pgms And they've mentioned in their trading statement today, they've had higher average chemical basket prices. So they've got more for the chemicals. And they had some solid cost controls, which helped them now. It's a bit of a problem. You're talking about chemicals. I don't know how big the share of the earnings cake is attributed to chemicals. But the one thing you've got to worry about, I don't like the look of crude oil. It looks horrible.
I think it can come down to $40 to $50 a barrel. and also the RAND being so strong. Isn't that a massive, massive negative for Sassl? It's a massive risk. You need to get the oil price to go down to those levels. Naturally that. Okay, your question, I mean, I don't have the exact figures, but as I could recollect, I think it's about 48. It's just below. It's between 42 or 48%. It's one of those two. That's what chemicals actually makes up.
for for uh for sassl so it's quite a large large contributor um and you know on your oil point you're 100 right they're currently sitting with the cost structure of about 58 on the oil side of about 58 dollars per barrel um which is high i mean the the the ceo did mention that they they aim as by 2027 or 2028 is to reduce that to fifty dollars per per share but be that's my i mean 40 $40, which you just mentioned, that will be a very, very big ball and chain for them.
And then we'll most probably see them retrace to the levels that we've seen earlier. Okay, that's Sasol, because we've got to move on to a couple of others. Just give us some other companies on the JSC outside of Sasol, obviously, but some big ones, if you would, if they have them. I'm just going to end off with Sasol, because the EPS, which I mentioned, that's, I think, a very important point. But the NXP share... that they mentioned in the trading outlook.
It's going to be between 7 rand and 12. I'm not going to talk about the EPS because there's so many one-sops. But the earnings per share is 7 rand to 12 rand per share. It's a company that's still trading at 98 rand. So we're talking about a company now that's going to be trading at multiples of two or three times. So this is looking good. NetBank. NetBank had a voluntary announcement today. I saw that. Yes, wasn't it something to do with wasn't it an acquisition or am I wrong? Yeah, yeah.
A big acquisition. And I'm so glad seeing this because I mentioned earlier this week to some of my colleagues. We were sitting and I said, well, that's the one thing that I'm missing in the South African market. We keep on seeing these companies coming out and saying they've had some serious cost controls and and to, you know... these mines, gold mines specifically, they've mentioned the massive free cash flow, how they've been reducing debt.
I miss the days where we start seeing companies actively pursuing some solid acquisitions. And I don't know if it's going to be good or bad, but this is a 1.7 billion rand acquisition, a corker. They actually do these digital payment machines. Okay, so fintech linked.
acquisition 100 100 fintech provider um they they post about 20 billion odd um rand digital payments annually so it's a it's a nice solid company very good market yeah market reacted positively netbank was up 2.3 on the back of that i think the biggest biggest uh results came from from not from south african company but from a chinese company 10 cent um but that had a massive effect on on our market and naturally on two two companies 10 cent what i beat
as i you love the beats don't you yeah i mean when you beat i mean i'm not going to talk about the actual values because it's just crazy amount of billions um and when you've got those amount of zeros i usually struggle but i mean 15 year on year growth on on their revenue uh market expected three percent i mean three percent was still positive on the back of China's economic data. Came out 15% year-on-year growth. This is crazy numbers, Lindsay. I mean, this is crazy how they've beat.
And naturally, you mentioned the largest company. Yeah, this is still the largest company on the jersey. NASPA is up in a four and a quarter today in process, up 3.9%. And these are off big bases as well. Four and a quarter percent. You think, oh, well, it's been down. Cecil rallies four and a quarter percent from 55 or whatever.
this is not the case this is off a high base skunk this is off a crazy high base i mean this has been been a company that's been companies been recovering so nice person not only riding the the 10 cent way but also doing a few of their own good stuff i mean one of the best i would say is buying back their own stock i mean so so they really been unlocking extra value for for their shareholders so how much do you think course becker is worth now
I can press a few buttons and tell you, but it's going to be obvious. I mean, you're talking about billions. I'll have a look while we chat. Yeah, you can do that. You got another company, have you? Yeah, I think that the other one is we've got a trading statement coming from Capitec. We've also seen Capitec lately going to new 52-week highs. I mean, this is the company that's just going.
from highs to highs um and uh yeah very solid i mean when i say solid i'm talking about again crazy crazy good numbers coming from from from capitec um they they're mentioning in their trading statement that their hips um is going to be up anything between 22 and 27 for this reporting period i find incredible you know when i see the unemployment data in south africa 33.2 percent uh official unemployment uh youth well vulnerable youth unemployment
62.2 i think to myself where are they getting the money where are they finding the people to transact i don't understand it i i i don't understand it either i mean no in the early days they've been been taking um you know massive massive uh market share from the other banks but you know that that should be you know getting increasingly difficult. But look at the innovation. I mean, Lindsay, we were talking earlier about companies doing cost controls.
I mean, every few months, there's some great innovation coming from Capitec. I mean, now they're doing data, which you can, by having a bank account, you can have your own data. Capitec can now actually be your data provider with doing everything on your cell phone. I mean, it's... It's just every few months they come out with these great, great initiatives. And they're just now going abroad. We know they're going to markets similar to South Africa. And for a few companies, it's paid off.
But I still need to find a company that's really managed to really, really hit it in the sweet spot when they went beyond the borders of South Africa. But for now, for the Capitex shareholders, this has been a great win.
and the share price again reacted to another another two percent today now getting very very close to 2007 but um to your question you want to take a guess what what's chris becker's net worth oh gosh no i don't because i i'll get it horribly wrong how much how many billions in rams and then we'll convert that to dollars i've got the dollar marks after really done the conversion so so according to grok And there's been a few sources.
And this also dates back to the 29th of July, 2025, according to Forbes real-time billionaire list. So this is pretty solid. QuestBank is currently worth $3.8 billion. They convert that to Rand. That's just sharp, 68. 68 billion Rand. That's astonishing.
that's extraordinary i mean i mean congratulations to him where does he live now what does he do how many wine farms does he have doesn't matter but uh what a great south african success story has anyone written his biography must be i'm gonna remember asking him if i could write it he said no i don't wanna i don't wanna i don't wanna i don't wanna do it because we used to speak quite a lot.
but um that's a phenomenal phenomenal phenomenal person phenomenal of what he's done uh you know over the years and yeah now i've got the greatest greatest respect okay skunk i've got the greatest respect for you but we've got to get on because your story's looking great tonight let's have a look at the dollar round first of all fantastic 1751 and that is a us dollar that's fallen 1.1 against the mighty round the british pound against the round is 2376 not so glamorous for the
round And the euro-rand is, what is it, 2051, which is a euro that's fallen a third of a percent against the round. Euro-dollar, amazing, 117.15, the euro up 0.8% against the dollar, and that's, of course, with expectations of interest rates coming down in the United States, therefore debasing the value of the dollar. On now to commodities. Gold price hasn't reacted very much at all to that US dollar, actually. It's up. but it's only up around about a third of a percent, $12 to $33.57.
The platinum priced the same, $13.44. That's actually down $9. And palladium down $7 to $11.34. Now, we spoke about oil earlier on, and I was speculating that I could, you know, looking at graphs, which I do as a hobby, it just looks horrible, the oil price. Brent crude oil, $65.43. down 1.1%, and the West Texas crude, $62.37, down 1.25%, as the U.S. production levels go to all-time record highs, and of course OPEC's quota's going up.
Right, S&P 500, we've spoken about another record high today. September futures up very slightly. Hold a second. Yes, $64.78 up just a little bit. And what else have we got? The South African 10-year bond, that's a good news story. 9.61%, the US 10-year, 4.23%. And the Bitcoin price, close to all-time record highs. Just coming off a bit now, 120,500 we'll call it. Still up half a percent on the day. Skalk, can you give me some ups and downs on the JSE and I'll chip in as well.
yeah i can't do so so when we look at the the the let's call it the top performers for the day uh we've already mentioned i mean it's when last did you have the top performer also being the biggest biggest company on the jays look at that thing no four no quarter cash full cash built four and uh you know four four point one three percent sassel three point nine five percent then fourth position process three point nine three percent And then we've had Grinroth
that also had a trading statement today. They were 3.411%. On the downside, let's quickly have a look. I'll chip in with Diskem up 3.3% and Aspen up 2.6%. On the upside downside, please, Skalk. Downside, Omnia, 4.6%. We have Karoo, 4.45%. Then we had two investex, Investec Limited and Investec PLC. Down 3.53% and 3.32% irrespective. That's quite a big drop. That's massive. I wonder if that's not an ex-diff story. I'll have a look now. And then we had RCL, Rainbow.
We had them coming at 2.83% down for today. And then I need to mention number six there, because this has been a company that's been in the hot seat and a good way of... for many, many, many weeks now, and that's British American Tobacco Company taking a bit of a breather today, down 2.7%. And after the walk, I've seen there's been some trading in own shares of British American Tobacco Company today. Okay. What about Investec? What's the story there?
I'm actually going up and just see if it's an exit story before I start running for the hills. Must be. Let's have a look. Although I don't remember the results. I can't remember the results either. Now I've got a frozen screen. That's a big problem. The frozen screen or the Investec falling 3.5%? The frozen screen. Okay. So, yeah. Oh, well, don't worry. We'll find out. But I don't remember the results being out recently.
Okay. uh skunk what we've got to do now is wrap up the jse indices so the jse today closed at 102 points or 102 uh 278 points that was up a percentage the resources were down 33 percent industrials were up 1.8 percent actually if you got gonna have naspa some process doing what it's doing you're gonna have the industrials up two percent but yeah one point eight two percent on industrials uh financials up one point 2%
and even the SA Property Index had a solid day today, 31 basis points in the green. When we look at the current US market as we sit here, the S&P 500 is up 14 basis points. Dow Jones, 77 basis points up. And the Nasdaq, after a solid run yesterday, just in the green, currently up 9 basis points. Value traded in the market today, not a bad day. I mean, we had this conversation a few weeks ago, and a few of my colleagues yesterday also.
I had a few of my, let's call it the buy side or sell side stockbrokers yesterday meeting, and they actually mentioned how they've seen quite a bit of, call it, uptick in activity in the local stockbroking market. You and I have seen it in the daily trade, and today was no different. We had another 23 billion day. And this is now becoming a bit of the norm. So definitely, definitely some interest in JSE stocks are looking good. Very good. Great chat, Skulk.
Even more than usual, Skulk Glow is a portfolio manager at PSG Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town. And that was the 5 o'clock shadow. The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and various contributors and do not reflect the policy, position or opinion of any other agency, organisation, employer. or company associated with StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.
Assumptions made on the analyses are not reflective of the position of any other entity other than the speaker or the author. And since we are critically thinking human beings, these views are always subject to change, revision, and rethinking at any time. Please do not hold us to them in perpetuity.