The 5 o' Clock Shadow with Schalk Louw - podcast episode cover

The 5 o' Clock Shadow with Schalk Louw

Dec 04, 202416 min0
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Schalk Louw, portfolio manager & Strategist at PSG Wealth

Transcript

You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams. The JSC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock shadow. And as always on a Wednesday, it's Skulk Lowe, who's a Portfolio Manager at PSG Wealth Old Oak Division in Cape Town. Now, let me ask you a question, which sort of comes from nowhere, Skulk. Have you heard of cryonics? Cryonics? No, not at all.

Okay. Well, cryonics is the... it's sort of... as they say quackery in other words it's it's been many times debunked by the medical profession it's where the scout blow decides that when he's um 87 years old he doesn't really want to die and who would want him to die i mean come on now a dead world without scalp though is the worst place to wonder and they freeze him okay he decides to be frozen and he pays an enormous amount of money because he's very vain and

very rich and he pays an enormous amount of money to be frozen and then in 150 years time or something they realize that whatever he had they could cure or they can rejuvenate him and make him you know 27 years old again so that's what he does and he gets frozen now if you woke up and it was december i don't know about you but i would know it was december even if they didn't tell me if they said mr lowe welcome welcome to the year 2178 or whenever it is you And he'd say, oh, good.

Well, I hope you have a good Christmas because you'd know it was December. Are you getting that December feel yourself? Sorry, Lindsay. Did you just this was the longest intro of getting me to say, man, I feel I can hear Boney M in the shopping centers. I can see the Christmas decorations. Yeah, I got the Christmas feeling. But, man, you're crayonics. Firstly, this is a great... So I was thinking, is this the same as that guy, that Brian Johnson guy? I don't know if you heard about that guy.

No, what guy? He is an entrepreneur, and I don't know how many gazillion, millions of dollars he's actually spent to actually try and reverse aging. So, yes, I saw an interview with him, and it was a CNN reporter, a very highly respected reporter, and she said to him, Do you honestly believe you're never going to die? And he said, yes, I'm never going to die. And I thought, no, here's a whack job.

Well, we share that sentiment because, yeah, I think maybe in 150 years for that guy that's been frozen, maybe there'll be some advance. But, I mean, unfortunately, your body can only so much. But I must say it's fascinating to sort of follow this podcast. and listen to him. I mean, a few things I've found valuable. I mean, things how you should be treating life and living healthier. Yeah. But it doesn't look happy, I mean, really. I don't know. Anyway, but yeah, you asked the question.

We're in Christmas. This is now, we're on the 4th of December and we're sitting with a market that's looking quite good. I mean, somebody asked me to say, oh, it's been a tough market lately. I know it's been a tough market, but we're still sitting year to date with performances well over 15% in the JSC. And I think this is fantastic. I still think December is most probably going to be a little bit volatile.

But if markets end in a few weeks'time, I think we should high-five each other and celebrate this great, great year.

Because I think we haven't seen... this type of performance on the jsu for many many years and that's been very good and it's obviously um hanging on to the coattails of the international markets notably uh the nasdaq notably the s p and that is to a certain extent the dow jones but anyway let's get back to the jsc today we've had tiger brands and signia out today they're the ones that caught my eye anything there for you yeah yeah well let's let's let's run through it because there is

there's been a few sort of companies sort of the unusual suspects the companies that we haven't been speaking about let's let's talk to off a super group i think that was a was a nice one again another 16 i mean it did that when they first announced the sg fleet story in australia but today another 16 Yeah, but today there was a little bit more meat around the boat because, yes, they actually mentioned, we're talking about 7.5 billion the company will be getting.

And they actually now mentioned, they said, well, we're going to be settling, let's call it close to 2 billion rands worth of interest-bearing borrowings. And the rest, which they're talking about approximately 16 rand 30 per share is going to be paid out, well, going to be distributed. That's huge. A lot of interest. That's massive. That is absolutely massive. And naturally, Mr. Mark had loved it. I mean, let's just put it in perspective.

Even after today's 4.30 movement in the share price, it closed at 32 rand, which pretty much tells you half of that is going to be paid out and distributed to shareholders. That's massive. So, yeah, another 16% for the super group shareholders. I'm not in it, so I'm not winning it. But, yeah, for those… Those who were in it, I'm really, really happy for you. Well done. And just before we go on, so we have to be very politically correct here. You said Mr. Market liked it.

Okay, I would have to say that Mrs. Market liked it as well. And LGBTQ plus market liked it also. Now, what else did you see? Excuse me. What else did you see today? Okay, Mr. Williams, I saw... Tiger Brands, as you alluded to earlier, they actually came out with year-end results. EPS increased by 4%, eventually ended up at 18,10. And for those listeners out there, you know, let's call it... Oh, man, the analyst consensus. There we go. Is that for a blank? There, how's that for a blank?

Just a second now, for goodness sake. Anyway, carry on. The analysts are expecting you. The age-reversing thing is not working on me. I mean, you can clearly see things are already going, man. It's going. But anyway, analysts expected 17 rand, 8 cents. And yeah, that's a massive beat. It's close to one rand. It helps, you know, beat for the company and the market. Really loved it as well. You know, so Tiger Brands ended the day up 3.64%.

So yeah, I think that's the… Because it's been a company that's been troubled over the years, hasn't it? Oh, man. Let's just… Talk about the big L. And we're not talking about love. We're talking about listriosis. I mean, I think it's sort of beyond the company now. And you can see the company is doing well. And for the listeners out there, I mean, I just, for just having fun, I always usually, when I look at these companies, I try to just go and look at some of the brands.

I mean, Mrs. Ball's Chutney, Black Cat Peanut Butter, Tastic, Cross and Black, Koo. Doom, Albany Bread, Orgold. I mean, it's just, I can, the list is extremely long for the brands. And they're in the low larder, aren't they? The Skunkberg larder is full of Tiger brands. No, I need to put my cards on the table. I'm not a shareholder. I've been a shareholder for many years in AVI. Preferred that entry. And yeah, it's been a kind investment for me as well.

The company has also been doing very, very well.

But... today is uh you know the day for tiger branch to to shine and and that really did shine i mean so it did really really well and um i think it's it's it's really good good to see good what's the other one that i was really thinking of listriosis is one thing and i do remember that but they made a very injudicious investment into a flower company from what's the company what's the what's the giant conglomerate in nigeria that they bought the flower business from please to please remind me

you're right you're right I'm going to talk now, and then you're going to Google, and then we're going to play this. You overestimate my ability to do two things at once. But anyway. Mr. Multitask. Anyway, but, yeah, I think today that was good. We'll find that. But then also resilient. Dangote. It was Dangote, wasn't it? They bought Dangote flour, and I haven't looked it up. No, I haven't looked it up. I promise you, that's my fertile mind.

with or without creosis uh whatever i said earlier on the i'm i'm my mind is mossy today yeah you're not ready to be frozen yet you're not ready to be frozen yet i think we should still do this podcast for at least the next we've got another at least another two podcasts before the end of the year that that's that's fine and then we'll draw a veil over what has been a very good 2024 for certain people notably uh yourself Today, though,

we've been speaking about potentially there being some action between now and the end of the year, but everything's going remarkably smoothly, and I have to say, rather boringly. Yeah, I think you and I, you know, two weeks ago when this whole, let's call it Trump was now, we know it's been done, dusted, he's now going to be the new president of the USA. You and I said, well, this is going to be fun. I mean, really.

And then he started talking and he's been saying, you know, tariffs and tax cuts. And he's actually sort of doubled down on some of the stuff he said in the election buildup. You know, one of the things he actually said. over the weekend was the BRICS comment. I mean, BRICS. Yeah, 100% had some BRICS. There we go. There we go. We're going to slap you with 100% tariffs. You, I mean, thinking that you're going to start creating your own currency, I will stop that right there.

I actually thought that the round would be, you know, under massive, massive pressure after that. But this is the type of things that we've been getting used to over the past two weeks. And you and I have been chatting about this. This is kind of this. This is week three. And we haven't really seen the volatility which we've been expected. But hey, I mean, December is only four days old. Four days old. We're still going to have fun. We're still going to have fun. I reckon we are.

Let's have a look at some of the markets today because, you know, we can't dwell on the matters that aren't actually there. We've done everything that we can on the JSC. And I like that Super Group and Tiger Brand story. Dollar Rand, which you just mentioned. 1813, just the dollar. very slightly higher against the local currency. The British pound against the rand is 23.01. The euro rand, 19.08. Euro dollar, 105.25, which again, barely changed. British pound against the US dollar, 126.95.

Your gold price, I call it your gold price because it is, you own it, 26.52, which is up $7, gratifyingly quiet. Platinum price is 9.51. which is down a few dollars and the palladium price up a few dollars at 987 but both of those white metals still mired under 1000.

okay s p 500 futures uh went to all-time record highs yesterday and today what have i got here i've got six thousand and eighty one and a half six thousand eighty one and a half for the december futures which will become an x futures contract quite soon it'll go to march as the December futures expire. But anyway, nonetheless, all-time record highs up 0.3%. The South African 10-year bond, 9.13%. The US 10-year treasury bond, all important, of course, 4.24%.

And the Bitcoin price, which everyone said will be soaring through 100,000 a couple of weeks ago, is just below 96,000 now, 95,964, which is up 0.8%. scale. Quickly on the oil price. It's been remarkably quiet recently. I'm just looking at the graph now. It's more, by oil standards, it's been a flat liner recently. $73.40 for Brent crude, down a quarter of a percent. And West Texas crude, $69.72, which is down a third of a percent as well.

What shares, apart from the ones that we've spoken about, caught your eye on the JSC today, please? Any others? I think I mentioned most of the companies that did. Let me just quickly apply my mind again. I think oh, no. No, that's it. Okay, let me show you. Let me just tell you what I've got on my screen here, the ups and the downs. I'll refresh my screen quickly and go through them. Tiger Brands up 3.2%, as you said. The Absa Group, 3.2% higher as well. That came from nowhere.

Pepcor up up to, let's call it 3%, and Barlow World, also 3% higher. On the downside, and you can tell me if there's any ex-divs there, Alphamin down 6.8%, Coronation down 4.1%, Exaro down 2.8%, Anglo-American PLC a 2.25% loser, and Northern Platinum down 1.8%. Any ex-dividends there, Skulk? Yeah, only Coronation. Coronation has been fairly resilient lately, so yeah, I think it was only Coronation that they knocked off 2 round 28.

dividend so that's that's why they had a bit of a retracement okay closing indices if you would and the trading volumes so the jse today closed at 86 315 points that is up 58 basis points the jse top 40s similar to the movement 56 basis points in the green resources again again struggling a bit to to keep them some positive down 60 basis points while the industrials they were up 76 basis points. And you mentioned apps a little bit earlier.

And naturally, there was definitely some movement in the financials. Financials up 1.1%. Is it property again? As mentioned, one of the companies updated, Resilient actually updated. And it's looking good. Seems like things are improving on that side. Property index also up 43 basis points. When you look at their volume traded, not too bad for, let's call it, a 4th of December. We're going to be touching that 20 billion for today, so clearly not some bad volumes through the market. So let's see.

Let's see when things start quieting down or maybe we'll see some excitement. I will see you for more excitement on the 11th of December. It might be our last, but I'm going to try and squeeze another one. out of view on the 18th. But anyway, thank you very much, Scalp, as always. Go and jump in the freezer if you feel the need. And Scalp Lowe is a portfolio manager at PSG Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town. And that was the 5 o'clock shadow.

The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and various contributors and do not reflect the policy, position, or opinion of any other agency, organisation, employer, or company associated with StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

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