You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams. The JSC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the five o'clock shadow. And as always on a Wednesday, I speak to Skulk Lowe, Portfolio Manager at PSG Wealth, Old Oak Division in Cape Town. Skulk, you weren't around last week because of a strategy session, and we'll talk about that later on briefly. But since we last spoke, there's been state of the nation.
It's been State of the Union in the United States of America. And there's been the budget this afternoon in South Africa. So much going on. Please tell me about the budget. Well, let's start off by saying how unbelievably things can change in one year. I mean, we just go, let's talk about the budget. I mean, when we turned the clock back one year ago, I think you and I had two or three times where we had to say, let's talk about the budget. Wait. We can't yet.
They can't get the budget over the line. It seems like a long time ago. Yes, exactly. It was cancelled, wasn't it? And that didn't exactly engender a lot of confidence in the international community. No, no, no, no. I mean, to put that in perspective, I mean, when you look at, let's just take our long bond rate. You can go and look at it over the past, let's call it 20 years. There's a few blips. we had the world financial crisis. That was a massive blip. you know, shot up.
And that was an emerging market, not just an emerging market thing, but it's a world thing. Then we had the Nene gate. We had, ah, I can continue. I mean, we had the downgrade to junk status. That was March 2020. We had the gray listing. That was a kick up. And we tend to forget that a little bit more than a year ago, we had that kick up. I think. Long bond rates, we've been very close to 11%. Here we're sitting today.
I can tell you exactly where they were on the day after Liberation Day, because that was in the evening. And then we opened up in the morning, went to 11.10% to 11.15%, because it was thinly traded. Nobody knew what button to press at the time. And that was the South African 10-year bond. And look at the thing now. It's extraordinary. Yeah, but there was some augmentation.
That was sort of a... build up to deliberation day because we couldn't get the budget over the line and the rant weakened because everybody thought that's the end of GNU. GNU is done. It's history. It's not working. And we had the rant weakening. We had the yields shot up. Then eventually we had the very lukewarm budget speech. We didn't have that original VAT hikes and those kind of things. But it was sort of a lukewarm. It was uh Not a very positive one. You said it.
We had Liberation Day, and yields went up over 11%. Got very, very close to that 20% to the dollar mark again. And here we're sitting. And the all share was below 100,000, Skunk. There we go. There we go. And as I look at my screen now, you've got to put that into context, because people that have been away for a while and are suddenly listening to us for the first time. Yes, it was below 100,000, and Skunk will give us exactly where it was budget day last year.
But I, for now, will tell you exactly where it is at the moment. It's nearly 127,000 for the all-share index of the JSC. And that's one and a quarter percent up just today. It doesn't stop. The round is 1588. Where was the round a year ago? Skalk is also going to show us because he's got seven screens in front of him. And he fiddles around and he'll be able to tell us. But anyway. I'm fiddling already, man. I'm fiddling already. So the JSC all-share.
That was trading at 87,800 exactly a year ago. So it's 30,000 points higher. Yeah. No, 40,000 points higher. 40,000 because remember it's more than 40% higher. And if we look at the rant, look at the rant. I mean, this is actually crazy. Liberation Day. Well, we'll get to Liberation Day. Exactly a year ago, the rant was trading. I feel I need to give a drum roll. Do I have to sit down for this one?
18 Rand, 37. Then Liberation Day happened, and it went, well, on that specific day, went, oh, closed at 19 Rand, 40. So from 1940 to 1588. I mean, okay, Liberation Day, well, it's less than a year, because Liberation Day was the first week in April. of course, April the 2nd it was, because he didn't want it to be on April the 1st, for obvious reasons. It's extraordinary. That's how quickly things go. But you know, I've often had this conversation.
And I've often had conversations stating that the African economy is a very, very usually when people invest in gold mines, that's sort of my reference point. Why somebody would invest in one gold mine rather than another is sometimes a gearing effect.
How are they... you know sell their gold forward uh you know what's the gearing effect um and so africa is that type of thing i think africa is a scenario we've seen it in in the mid 2000s where things really don't look good for for the economy don't look for good for the country and then just a few small things happen and and and past 12 months we've often said that small things is usually big things because we're the largest producer of platinum in the world with the second
largest palladium Radis Rhodium with its eighth largest producer of gold. You know, when you see happening what happened, that suddenly have a massive effect on our current account. Suddenly these mines, and we've seen some of them reported today, suddenly these mines, I mean, Volterra, look at that result. I mean, that's just cruel. Well, we'll look at those in a moment when we get to the Stock Exchange News Service. We will look at them. I haven't looked at the budget today.
I've got something called Budget Indifference. I go into a coma on Budget Day and I lie down with slices of cucumber over my eyes and I forget about it. Because I just need to read what happens and look at what happens in the markets to know what happened. This time last year, absolutely nothing happened. This year, a 13.5 basis point fall in yield on the South African 10-year. That's the first thing I look at, 7.805%. It's a 1.7% fall in the yield bond prices.
soaring international and local investors doing well the all-share index doing fantastically well but you've brought in the the diggers factor here uh people that dig things out of the ground have come out with numbers you mentioned valteria we'll talk about that later that's boosting the all-share index but goodness me he must have had a smile on his face that deliverer of the budget today no it was it was one of the better budgets in many many years because it was it was
really good news all around. And I think it's not just in terms of, but let's look at the fiscal position. I mean, when you look at, I think when we look at it in the 2025, which is now pretty much two years ago already, when you look at that medium term budget, they were talking about the 2028, 2029, there should be a budget deficit of around 9%. So things were fairly bleak and not looking good. Today, when you look at the consolidated budget deficit, we're looking at a 5%, about 4% deficit.
Well, that's 4% of GDP for 2026. But now they expect it to narrow to 3.1% by 2028, 2029. From, let's call it a year and a half ago, it was 9% of, the deficit should have been 9% of GDP. Now we're looking at 3.1%. to That's massive. Total debt to GDP. I remember when most economists globally were saying, we see what you're talking about, aiming for these, let's call it 80% by 2026, 2027. But hell no, we see you surpass or getting close to that 100% mark as well.
Well, total debt to GDP is down to 77.3%. 77.3% A lot of countries would die for that kind of number. I know, I know. And that is really, really good. That's the meat. That's for South Africa. Yes, I think our total taxpayer, the base is still too small, too small a percentage of the country, look after the rest of the country. But the one thing that the mid-2000s has taught me as well is Thanks. You know, you need, how does a song go?
Your neck bone is connected to the shoulder bone, the shoulder bone to the backbone. Showing your age. You're showing your age. And the type of music you like as well, Skull. Both of which we can skirt over at the moment. But anyway, what are you talking about? Them bones, Them bones. That was the song. But anyways, I mean, what I'm getting to is eventually. We had a similar scenario in that mid-2000s. You often bring up the CRB Commodity Index into play.
I did some work last week where I look at, just look at the CRB Commodity Index. When that improved, there's sort of a... massive, massive correlation with GDP growth on the growth of the CRB, or just commodities in general. But I'll use the CRB because you love it as well. Also, when you take the CRB commodity index and as it improves, you always see an improvement in the RAN.
So then my question is, to all the people that's worried, if you're worried and say we're nearing the end of this commodity type of cycle, well, then maybe you should be a bit worried. I don't think we're there yet. We're not trading at the highs that we've been in 2008 yet. And it's been predominantly driven by some of these precious metals. The rest of the commodities haven't really followed suit yet. So when that happened, naturally, that won't be good for inflation.
But over that same period, mid-2000s, we had an unemployment rate in 2003 of 31%, very similar to the levels that we're currently seeing. But by 2009 or 2008, we'll be sitting with an unemployment rate of 21%. And that's where I say you connect the dots. Oh, I see. Where things start becoming and improving. So, yes, the budget speech today. I'm just going to run it very quickly. Very quickly. I would say this is for individuals because we continue to look at corporates and those kind of things.
It's just going to get way too long. Very good. Very, very good for individuals. We've seen the tax-free investment plans. That was a nice one. Sort of expect it. I think there was a lot of rumors that the annual 36,000 rand should be increased. There was talks, people guessed or sort of bet on a 40,000 rand. Now it's been pushed up to 46,000 rand. I thought that was a positive sign to promote savings within South Africa. We've had no bracket creep, so to speak, this year.
Remember, for the past three years, they didn't adjust the tax rates, but they kept the brackets unchanged. So that inflationary effect, well, there was no inflationary effect. This year, they did adjust to inflation, so that went up. I think that is positive. When you look at your... your annual deduction for your retirement funds. Now, remember, it's usually the maximum of 27.5% or 350,000, whatever is the highest.
That's typically for your retirement, your annuity, your provident fund, those type of things. That was, the maximum was always set at 350,000. That's been increased to 430,000. Again, a really, really positive sign and sort of promoting.
promoting the the africans to to to to save um the the the well let's call it the the the annual exclusion for capital um gains or losses that's always been 40 000 rent i mean this 350 000 and 40 000 has been these levels for i might say as long as i can remember but for a very very long time they've adjusted this from forty thousand to fifty thousand right just meaning that for the listeners out there don't understand this usually when you make a capital it's called a profit
um you usually take your profit and let's say it is below 40 000 rand for that specific financial year then you will pay no capital gains tax anything above 40 000 now they've they've they've increased that from 40 000 rand to 50 000 and here's a biggie Yeah, that's not a lot of money in most people's lives that are in the business of making money through trading or through buying and selling assets. But still, a step in the right direction, Scott. So you've got a biggie coming up.
The biggie to me is also one that's been unchanged. That's the exclusion of capital gain or loss of the disposal of your primary residence. Now, Lindsay, you will know this has been 2 million Rand for many, many, many years. And the property market has got ahead of itself compared to that, of course. Yeah. And they didn't just kick it up with, I don't know, 200,000 rand. They kicked it up from 2 million rand to 3 million rand. So I thought that was also a very, very positive sign.
So I would say that to me was the most important sort of changes within the budget speech for today. Oh, yeah, and then the tax-free donations. That went up from... From 100,000 rent to 150,000 rent. Very nice. So good news all round. You have to say a little bit about corporates. Maybe take the first one or two points that you found to be really positive for the South African corporate world. Oh, what's it? Companies, the minimum, let's call it the minimum effective tax rate.
I think that's maybe the one I'm going to run through. I mean, trust, that changed at, it's unchanged at 36%. Individuals, still 18% and special trust, 18%. And then companies, 21.6%. So, yeah, I don't think it's been when I look at the broader let's call it budget, there's more money back to individuals this year. And I thought that was really good. Just before we get on to the results coming out today, has that had a positive effect on other sectors?
For example, the retailers, because if it's a consumer-friendly or rather a people-friendly budget, which it sounds as though it is, has that had a knock-on effect on certain sectors on the JSC that are... linked to that type of person or that type of spending activity? It was an extremely interesting day on the JS, and we'll chat about that. But to answer your question fairly shortly and bluntly, no. It's been a crazy day because it's been predominantly driven by resources.
But if you take the resources out of the market today, it's been a pretty negative day.
not really okay well we'll come to that and let's have a look now never mind why because we've seen this big improvement in the currency because I think that the market looked at this and said well this was a positive budget and it'll be positive you know for South Africa and usually when you see that your currency is the share price for your country and we've seen that improvement in the currency today but that wasn't actually good for the market that was interesting Okay, well,
maybe that'll unwind tomorrow if people got so excited about certain things. There's been so many results recently. I mean, just look at last night after the market closed, you had BidCore coming out. Also, no, that was it. BidCore after the market closed last night. Today, being punished by 2.5%. This morning, we've had Blue Label, ACI, Motus, Mustek. And then if you go up to about 9 o'clock, those are the 7 o'clock. 7 o'clock was 9 o'clock.
It's a small company here by the name of, come on, Valtteri Platinum Limited. Full year results announcement for the year ended 31st of December 2025. You look along the right hand side, it gives you the share price and the percentage share price move on the day. 10.02% in the green, Skulk. Must have been good numbers. Yeah, that's the second. Let's call it, if you look at your top performers and worst performers, which you'll read us a little bit later. I will do.
But that was one of the top performers, position number two for today. Yeah, Volterra, what a full year. Printing money? Absolutely. Absolutely. When you sit in a position where you start giving larger dividends. And now start giving special dividends as well. And just to put it in perspective, when you look at the total dividend of 45 rand a share, because for the listeners that didn't read this update, it was a 25 rand base dividend that was announced, but also a 20 rand special dividend.
That's 45 rand. That's pretty much 71% of the headline earnings that they're paying out. It's quite a good thing. I mean, I spoke to somebody called Wayne McCurry. over the last few years before he retired, had been investing in the PGM companies. And it had a pretty rotten time, let's face it. I mean, as all PGM investors did. And I'm so pleased that they're being rewarded now because the cyclicality of resources means you go through the worst of times and then you go through the best of times.
And these are the best of times. It's just a question of how long they'll last and how well these companies will manage it. Will they go out and be expansive and shine by. obscure Canadian mines or northern-based mines in Finland or something like that? Or will they just hunker down, get on with it, with their beautiful resources that they've got, as Donald Trump would say, and keep churning out the money, paying the dividends, and everyone's happy? I hope they're responsible with it.
Yeah, that's an important point because you're 100% right. Again, we were talking about how things can change. in one year. And we refer to the budget speeds. But I mean, I think the team at Volterra is looking at it and saying, wait a minute, Scott, that's not just the budget, that's us. When you turn the clock back, February last year, I mean, we're talking about taking the clock back February last year, what was the currency and what was this, what was that?
When you look at the platinum price exactly a year ago, 25 of February, 2025. The platinum price closed that day, it's $970 per ounce. Today, it's currently trading close to $2,300 per ounce. So that's crazy. And why is this significant? And they mentioned in their trading update, their financial report, is this earnings is really supported by this 22% increase in the RAND PGM basket. price for their products. But also, they mentioned a five billion rand cost saving. Why?
Because remember, as mentioned, if you turn the clock back one year ago, they were sitting worried. I mean, they're sitting with a $900 platinum price. They worried. I mean, because if you take the platinum and palladium and brodium, those prices for that previous year or two. It flatlined. It stayed at these $900 levels. And when you look at the all-insustainable cost, the all-insustainable cost for this, let's call it this year, was around, let's call it $987 per ounce.
Then when the platinum price is trading at $970, $980 per ounce, you're worried. You go back. And you say you cut any expense we don't need. You switch the light off when you leave the room. You make sure the taps are closed. You reuse a spade five times. But hell, we need to save some cost. And then, you know, the underlying commodity prices moved the way it did. So you should say you get a perfect storm. But Valterra, they add the inverse.
They add the… Absolutely perfect environment where they came off the stress levels, they did cost cuttings, and then bang. Yeah, it's a positive sign. I love the fact that they're handing back 71% of the headline earnings back to shareholders. It means that they're not seeing a lot of opportunities at these current levels to go and buy other companies. And rather than doing that, give the money back to the shareholders. They'll find something to go and buy. Yes, indeed.
And on that note of being responsible with windfalls. Let's hope that the Treasury is responsible with its windfall as well. The budget today, I think pretty conservative, but they're giving enough to keep us interested. You sound very excited. But also, the whole country's got to take advantage of the Valterra-style bonanza that we're having at the moment. I mean, look, they've got three major mining complexes in South Africa, in the Bushveld, right? I mean, let's say the Rustenburg area.
We're talking about special dividends and dividends, but what about the corner shop owner? There's a lot of people now with a lot more money in their pocket and they're working more shifts and maybe people are being employed as well. That has a knock-on effect. It's a fantastic effect as well and you've got to take advantage of it. The local municipality must do something about it and with the windfall taxes and everything, fix the roads and the water and everything. So make sure that...
The new windfall, as I said, is used judiciously. Yeah, I totally agree. You've got the velocity of money. How many times that money goes through the economy? If you don't have money, money doesn't go through the economy. But when things tend to go well and there's more money, that money goes. And as you mentioned, the guys working at Valterra, they go to the local shops, Sotfasa shops. I mean, we've seen the likes of Supergroup yesterday and Motus today.
Suddenly they go and say, well, maybe now I can afford to go and buy that new car. And that's the knock-on effect. And that's what I mentioned earlier. South Africa is such a finely tuned economy that small changes could have quite a large effect on our economy. I still think when I look at the IMFs and also the World Bank's outlook, they've still got South Africa on a 1.5% growth rate for 2026. It's very early in the year and maybe very dangerous.
I don't want to give it the commentator's curse, but I can already see, I think they're going to be on the short side. I think they're going to be on the lower side and looking at how things are progressing. Don't be surprised if that's beaten quite handsomely this year. We haven't got time for the State of the Union address, but I'll summarize it. Donald Trump is the greatest president in the history of the world. The United States economy is doing better than it's ever done.
It's the greatest economic turnaround in the world. Gas prices were $6 a gallon under Biden. No, they weren't. They were just above $5 a barrel. Gas prices now in some places, including Iowa, are $1.85 a gallon. No, they're not. The lowest you can find in Iowa anywhere on the internet or with AI is $2.37. And he said he went to see these places. No, he didn't. He was behind the bulletproof limousine. So he's lying again. So it was the normal state of the union address, Skulk.
And the only thing different about it was it was the longest in history, one hour and 37 minutes. I got up at three o'clock in the morning, four o'clock in the morning your time. I lay down on the sofa to watch this, and at quarter past five I woke up and I didn't know where I was. I nodded off. I nodded off after he brought on the U.S. men's hockey team who were all biting their gold medals, and everyone was singing USA, I turned off literally myself.
Scott, the only thing I want to talk about next week is the dislocation in the tech market, because I was looking at a few graphs. And I looked at Microsoft, bear market. I looked at IBM, bear market. I looked at Tesla on the verge of being in a technical bear market, which is 20% from the high to where it's trading now. Nearly there.
And there's a lot of sort of, if you can call them, old school tech stocks that are now being shunted aside because AI is potentially eating their lunch, as they say. Very, very interesting. So if you're a tech investor, you don't just buy tech. You have to buy proper tech.
And we'll see if… the new leading it is going to continue to be leading it because their results out later tonight skulk are you going to be watching those quite closely yeah no no definitely i think that's this is going to be a massive one few things that i'm going to look at i'm definitely going to look at you know did they beat or not didn't beat i mean that's the first thing but i think the most important thing i'm going to be looking at in the
video is is the inventories um that was one that with a with a previous quarter update which was quite interesting. It seemed like they had more stock. They were holding more stock than the market really expected. And I think this is sort of going to indicate, are they holding back stock to try to drive up prices? Is there some Chinese accounting happening here? Yeah, you mentioned it. I mean, it's a big conglomerate, Microsoft.
Today, trading at levels, yes, we've got a bit of a bounce, but When you look at Microsoft, it's now trading at levels last seen in 2024. Yeah, we had a little bit of a blip last year with Liberation Day, but that was short-lived. We're now trading at levels that Microsoft's last traded in January 2024. Yes. So, interesting. As I say, bear markets, it could be presenting itself as a great opportunity, still a fantastic company. But is the traditional software business now being usurped by?
developments in AI. We don't know yet, but that's the rumor out there. I know one particular fund manager, who's of course a holder of Microsoft, says, no, nonsense, and this is why. And I'll be having that podcast quite soon. But anyway, let's have a look at some market values now, and start with the mighty RONT. 1589, the dollar round, very good indeed. That's a half a percent fall for the US dollar. Euro dollar is 117.90. So let's call it British pound against the round, though.
Twenty one fifty euro round is eighteen seventy four, which is a third of a percent fall for the euro onto the gold price. Now, of course, let's have a look at that. You know, we've gone through a whole podcast without mentioning gold, Skunk. It's not too late. It's not over yet. I knew it. Fifty one eighty the gold price. It's I think if this is maybe a bit slow. But anyway, I've got fifty one eighty the spot price. which is $32 up, two-thirds of a percent. Platinum is up 5.4%.
Sorry, that was a nervous laugh. $23.05. So Veltere are getting the double whammy today. It's got the great results, and it's got surging metal prices. Palladium up 9.2%. Can you, Adam and Evett? $18.61, $156.50 to the good. Rhodium, I don't know, but Skalk is going to look on his screen now. and tell me while I'm rattling through another couple of commodity prices on my CRB index screen.
Notably, the energy complex where Brent crude oil is down very slightly, $70.71, and West Texas crude is $65.42, which is down a third of a percent. Copper is $5.95 and a bit, which is up 0.4% in New York. What else have we got going here? I mentioned the South African bond market earlier on. 7.805%, the close, massive move, 13.5 basis points down for the yield. U.S. 10-year is 4.05%.
It wasn't that long ago it was 4.30%, and I was barking on about the U.S. bond yields being one of my trades of the year. In other words, the bond yields would rise, in my opinion. They're stuck in a range between just about 4% to 4.30%, right at the bottom. and testing. testing my patience actually. S&P 500. March futures are 6935, which is up half a percent. US, and I've done that one, Bitcoin price. 67,200, which is up 5%. It did go below 63,000 yesterday. I was watching it.
And yeah, that's my numbers. Did you get that rhodium price, Skulk? Yeah, it's up. It's $11,850 per ounce. It's also up 1.3%. Also crazy how this, how it's actually just suddenly moved from these. If you look at one year ago, rhodium. Because remember, I don't have the graph in front of me, but we went to something like $30,000 or $40,000 per ounce five, six years ago, and then went all the way down to the $4,000, $5,000 mark.
That's where we were trading a year ago, $4,000-something dollars per ounce. Today, trading more than double that, close to triple that, $11,850. Fantastic. Let's have a look at the JSC now. Volterra, top of the list, 10.3% higher. African Rainbow Minerals up 5.4%. Northern up 5%. Goldfields up 5%. Impala Platinum 4.7% to the good. On the downside, tell me about SPAR. Why is it down 10%? Is that an ex-diff? No, no, no. I wish it was an ex-diff. Was that results?
No, I remember they've been in the news lately with the CEO just stepping down.
sort of out of the blue and it's just been yeah it's just been under pressure, under pressure constant pressure I liked spa when I was in South Africa I always liked to go to the spa well my local spa was very well run very friendly chap and everything and the quality of the food was good but clearly investors don't care about the quality of the food today Richemont down 4.4% Motus down 4.3% after their numbers Sassl down 4.1% you But it's still 137 Rand a share or just below. Goodness me.
The good, cool, skulk low. Mondi down 4%. Anything outside of those? Yeah, maybe just a quick mention on Blue Label. Yes, they came out this morning, didn't they? Yeah, it was an interesting one. I'm not going to go in too deep. They've got a very interesting venture, and listeners should go and read up on their new blue energy trading unit.
But basically it just comes down to they've seen a massive gap where they feel the amount of electricity ESCOM is selling or providing to the municipalities are adequate. The problem is the municipalities are not getting paid for the electricity they're distributing. And they've got a very interesting new venture is how they're going to help these municipalities. getting in the money and how they're going to enrich themselves.
We're talking about massive, massive, they're talking about, you know, close to an extra 19 billion rand in revenue that these municipalities should be recovering, 40%. And they've got a new product that's going to help them, help their shareholders as well as the municipalities. And that helped the share price naturally being the top performer for today, just over 12% for today. Very good indeed. Skalk, you'll now give us the indices before we close this. Very interesting chat.
The JSE today closed at 120 up. We just talked about it earlier. But there goes my screen. Oh, yeah, it's back. 126,742 points. That's up 1.3% for today. JSE top 40, 118,703 points. Also up. 1.47%. That was naturally driven by resources, up 4.82%. Industrials, that was down 0.14%. Financials, interesting, in a stronger RAND environment, actually down 0.98%. And even the asset property index, that was down 1% for today. Very good indeed.
I was going to close it here, but I need to know, I've never been to something called a strategy session. If so, after about an hour and a half. despite the fact that it's probably really good stuff, an hour and a half is about my limit. Yours was three days long at PSG Wealth. Was it constructive? Was the mood different to previous years, for example?
Yeah, now, Lindsay, that's, I mean, I'm not going to keep you busy with what's happening behind closed doors, but what was evident, very similar to what we've seen in the budget, there's definitely a renewed optimism. amongst, we can see our clients. And there's a new optimism in the financial market as well, financial advisors. So, yeah, and I think the move today by the Minister of Finance definitely supported it. And, yes, I must say I'm really optimistic for the remainder of 2026.
Yeah, bring it on. Yes, indeed. I can't believe that everything was positive today. Literally everything was positive today. If this was an animal like a bird or a dog or something like that, I'd take it to a taxidermist and have it stuffed and put it on the mantelpiece. For posterity's sake, Skulk. Skulk Lowe is very much not going to be on the mantelpiece. He'll be with us same time next week. He's a portfolio manager at PSG Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town, and that was the 5 o'clock shadow.
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