You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams. The JSC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the five o'clock shadow. And as always on a Thursday, I speak to David Shapiro and Viv Govender, except that Viv isn't available today. So it's just Dave. I'll have to put up with David on his own. And he can give me his very biased view about markets. Of course, I'm joking. But I did see somebody say to me or somebody said to me, Lindsay, NVIDIA is 8%.
of the market cap of the S&P 500. Is that true, David? That's probably. I worked out that the top 10 companies in the S&P 500, not the S&P 100, the S&P 500, the top 10 account for 40%. Okay, so work that out. So, I mean, with NVIDIA now 4.4 trillion, yes, you're close to the mark. The next 10, in other words, we're going now from 10 to 20, add on about 20%. So the first 20 stocks on the S&P 500 account for 60% of the market cap. So it's very influential.
Okay, before we go to the States, because there's lots to talk about there, even though the market's fairly quiet, grinding its way higher or hovering at close to all-time record highs, I just want to talk about a couple of South African stories. And the first one is... is a banking story. It's Standard Bank. Their share price up around 3% today. I know it's early, but you must have had a cursory glance at the numbers, David.
I can't make out how Standard Bank and the others, even though it's got an international presence, how they make money being a South African bank. Do you understand it? Well, they picked up on the business side. But what's quite interesting in the story that... I'm trying to explore further. I don't know if I can make a real story out of it. If we go through the banks now, the largest bank is First Rand, which is R435 billion. And then comes Capitec, R428 billion. Standard, R398 billion.
So Capitec is far bigger. And if you would have seen Capitec's numbers yesterday, up 22%, you look at Standard Bank today. But what stands out is on the private side, those people, you know, you, me, that side of it, standard banks flat and going nowhere. Okay. I haven't got the exact numbers to quote, and I'm just giving you a very broad, superficial view, but they're not doing anything. So, yes, they are making on the corporate side of it as well.
But, you know, that's not to a point where it really makes it exciting. But what's happened is Capitech. They've just almost knocked out, elbowed out all the other banks from... So they're poaching clients. They're poaching clients from the traditional banks, so-called traditional banks. Or they're adding new clients. In other words, the up-and-coming middle class. And in fact, to be honest, a number of people that I pay are at Capitec Bank. So it's not... It's quite broadspread and just simple.
probably because of their quality service and the simplicity of the way they deal with it. So it really is an African or South African success growth story. And you know what? The other side of it, let's go down. Nedbank is the smallest bank at a market cap. It's 115. I mean, it's a third the size. of Capitec now in terms of market cap, or almost a third. Investec, if you add them together, PLC and that, come to about 125 billion, so bigger than NetApp. Apps hasn't done much.
I mean, for the last 20 years, it's kind of bumbled along. But this is the only real success story in the banking industry has been Capitec. But you're right. You're not seeing anything. They're not really making money. They're very cautious. They don't lend money because they're very nervous to lend money in this kind of sector. So it's, yeah. But, I mean, the share price is up around 3% the last time I looked, so the market likes it. So there must be something there that gives them hope.
Well, there's nowhere else to go. So, you know, for the local money that... Seriously, I mean that, this pressure cooker effect. Where else do you go to in South Africa? You know, what's exciting? So if you talk to an investment analyst. or a fund manager or a private fund manager, whatever institutional, they'll give you the story of how steady it is, solid balance sheet, good dividend yield over 6%, and get very excited about a dividend yield of 6%. Sure. But there's another story to it.
They've got plenty of money and don't know how to use it. They've got nowhere to put it. So we're in an economy that's just grinding along. with really nowhere to go. There are no big projects. There's nothing exciting about the South African economy. Okay, so David Shapiro has more or less said that he's not looking at Standard Bank as a potential addition to his client's portfolio. No, he's not. Okay, good. We've got the point there.
The other one I quickly want to talk about, David, is Cecil, because people are getting very excited about Cecil.
They came up with a... a trading update i think it was and it said that it said good things about the future without going into any detail because i can't it's come from the low 50s remember when anglo-american went into the 50s and then bounced back well sasson went into the 50s and it's doubled let's say it's doubled and okay maybe it's got some more correcting to do to get to some sort of equilibrium but i i looked up late charles and i put into my um because i've learned this ai
thing from you I use Groff, by the way. I said, what is the most similar operation to Lake Charles, Sassel's Lake Charles? And it came back with Dow Chemicals. I looked at Dow Chemicals. Its share price down 43% so far this year. And I thought, okay, well, if Lake Charles is similar. It's a story, yeah. Yeah, there's something going on there. And then the other thing is that people, everyone I speak to that's got anything to do with oil, whether a trader or, I only know two, one trader.
and one very important fund manager in the United Kingdom. They say, no, at best, we don't think oil's going anywhere. And the rand is strong, and the oil price is not going anywhere. I think it's going lower. That's me. So why are people bullish about Sassel? I don't know. Neither do I. Because where the comparison with Dow is, it's through chemical prices. And they're not going anywhere. You know, they might. steady. They might be a little steady, but they're certainly not increasing.
And oil prices are not going up and the RAND's down as well, which also affects it. So I think if you look at those results, it wasn't at the trading level that they made it. There were a lot of restructuring and adjustments that went through in the trading statement that they announced. And so it's more to do with cleaning up the balance sheet, cleaning up the company, cleaning up the... the business.
But I don't think that anything on the top line is increasing dramatically to make it attractive. So, Lindsay, there are a lot of traders. There's any story they'll buy. You've got almost, I don't want to say, they're kind of vultures looking around for turnaround situations and where things do look cheap historically. I think Cecil looked very, very cheap historically. If I look at a chart, which I just loaded up in front of me, and I'm going back to the year, where are we now?
May 22, that's three years ago, just over three years ago. The share price there was $420. Okay. So that gives you an idea. You can draw the chart in your mind. You know, three years ago it's $420, it's now we're $100. So you've had a massive fall. It's starting to show signs. of recovering. This is not the lowest it's been. I think you picked out that low at about 50 rand or slightly under 60 rand. It's doubled since then. But I mean, this is a long-term, this is a lot of recovery still to do.
And I don't know where it goes to from here, whether they can really pick it up against the backdrop that you've painted. Lower chemical prices, lower oil prices, a non-existent economy here. But I can't get excited. Yeah, from a trading point of view, yes, you can play it. But I'm not sure whether from an investment point of view you want to be there. All right, let's go to America now. We had US PPI coming out.
We've had DPI, and that was 2.7%, which was a surprise on the downside, if you like. It didn't go down, but I mean, I'm saying people were expecting more. But PPI has come out this afternoon, coming at 3.3%, the highest annual gain since February. I mean, OK, it's only August. But the point is that the market shrugged it off. It says, oh, well, it doesn't really matter because they've priced in a Fed cut in September, no matter what. And people looking forward to September where it is confirmed.
And I suppose we have to go with the markets, which I think 99.7% certain the Fed funds futures or something have said that. And you agree, probably. Well, I don't know how to interpret the PPI because it's made up of so many different components. Just reading the interpretations, what it does appear is that the wholesalers are passing this on to the purchasers, to their clients. In other words, tariffs are starting to reflect in the wholesale numbers.
In other words, the prices at the factory gate. But it's quite a complicated index. And as a non-economist or someone who doesn't look that closely, I'm having trouble kind of interpreting it because Whenever we looked at the PPI here in South Africa, we'd say, oh, that's because the copper price is up or because metal prices are up. You know, we could relate it more to commodity prices. But this is a far more complex index. But the market initially was a bit hesitant.
Rates in the United States picked up. And, you know, the immediate impact was, oh, you know, the bets of our September cut have now fallen. You know, that's fallen. the best But looking at the market as we talk now, looking at the U.S. market, well, they're up and down. It's flat. Yeah, it's flat. That's the best I can describe it. It goes from down 0.01 to up 0.01. It's flat. That's the kind of movement. It's flat. Exactly. I was having an interesting conversation last night with Skulk Lowe.
You appear with the American Lily on telly. I know that. So we were saying, what could Scupper... the US markets, because he said he thinks the US market is terribly overvalued. That was his view, and it was unsolicited. And he said, what could bring it down, the things that we know about? And he went through his. And I said, well, I think the thing that is most likely to bring it down is the fact that we're going towards authoritarianism in the United States.
I mean, we've got Washington, DC, we know that. We've got the legal system being interfered with by the White House, notably Donald Trump. Now we've got CEOs being told, Trump telling a company to sack the CEO because of what he says about tariffs. Now that is dangerous. We've already had the Bureau of Labor Statistics story where the woman was sacked, the woman in charge of statistics. What's going to be next? CPI is going on.
Even things like museums, they're telling museums what they can and cannot display. I mean, history, you know, black history is being sort of shunted aside. And Trump's version of American history is being put forward in very high profile institutions, David. And the latest is, of course, culture. What is it? The Kennedy Center. Yeah, that's it. And he's doing that now. And it'll only be the ones that he wants to play there that will play there. I find this very dangerous.
the reversal of what... In a way, it's a reversal of what has taken place with what he would describe as probably the liberal left. I'm being very kind because I'm sure he'd use another description. So where you couldn't use the Washington Redskins anymore because it was an Indian. You know, those kind of things that he's now reversing or Columbus Day or things like that, you know. You had a holiday called Indigenous Day. It was no longer Columbus Day.
Well, I agree that they've gone a little bit too far there. But when it comes to a Confederate statue being refurbished for $10 million, I'm not sure. Because if you look at the constitution of the people that were supporters, were Confederates, I mean, it's not particularly American. But the point about the actions that Trump is taking against... economic data. He's trying to politicize economic data. That would be one thing that the bond market and international bond investors would hate.
And I think that that could trigger something, should it go on. That's just me. That's the problem is it hasn't triggered anything. I can't believe that nobody has responded or reacted to his vicious attack on Jay Powell. Exactly. I mean, when I say vicious, for a man who's supposed to set the moral tone of a country, the way that he treats people in high institutions, and I mean, it's a very senior position.
You know, the chairman of the Fed is an incredibly honorable and, I mean, you know, it's a great honor, what's the word I'm saying, you know, to actually hold that position. Yes. And it's a very important and not only powerful. And for him to call him a moron, you know, and now the beauty of what I loved is he's now saying it wasn't me that appointed him. It was me. Mnuchin, you know, and he's mocking Mnuchin, you know, annoying.
I don't know what he calls, you know, Steve Mnuchin, who was his previous secretary of the Treasury. He says it was him, you know, and he started to say, how could he have left me with this bozo? I don't know what words he used, but something like this, you know, thank you, Steve, for giving me this kind of bozo. And this is Al. And Pal, you know, he's a decent, good man, very low key, does his job properly. And, you know, so I and yet no one's spoken out, you know, no one's spoken out.
They just seem to. OK, well, we've got another three years of this, man. Let's just get on with it. And well, he's using the refurbishment of the Fed. I mean, the Federal Reserve Building, which is which is ancient and is built on a swamp, essentially needed refurbishing. And, OK, the bill is pretty big. Two point five billion, for goodness sake, for refurbishment. It's not as if they've relocated or something.
And then Trump was with Jay Powell, and he got a scrap of paper out of his inside pocket of his baggy suit and said, no, no, it's 3.3 billion now. And Powell said, what are you talking about? I haven't seen this. He said, well, it's true. And Trump is so childish. He's childish about everything. Nobody is spared. I mean, Anderson Cooper, who's an excellent and experienced journalist and broadcaster on CNN. happens to be gay. And now that Trump has found out this, he calls him Alison Cooper.
I mean, what is that? So he's not only a racist, but he's also a homophobe. This is, you can't have him in charge of the country. You know who's also gay? The Secretary of the Treasury, Besson. I didn't know that. Okay. He's married to another man and he's got two kids. I don't know whether he calls him Sally. I don't know what he calls him. I'm sure, you know, I look at poor Scott Bessington. I just think he's in a very powerful position. I think he enjoys it.
But there must be times when he just bites his lip, you know, especially when you get issues like that. But no one can stand it. take Trump aside and say, listen, you've said that about this person, but you do realize that I'm gay as well. No one can ever say that to him. But no one speaks out openly. I cannot believe America. Look, I subscribe to the free press. I subscribe to The Atlantic, which every day are having a go at in the New York Times nonstop.
So, you know, but in the business world... Everyone just takes a step back. And, you know, I'm really surprised at the party. But listen, I suppose the markets are up. People are just putting their heads down and getting on with it. But, you know, all that's going to happen is you're going to get angry at yourself. You know, you get angry and nothing really happens. He just continues the way that he does. So, you know. Anyway, the markets. Stand your frustration. You know what I'm saying?
I am frustrated because what will happen is that it will all fall down and all the Trump supporters, all the people that didn't come against Trump or go against Trump, they're not going to say anything. They're not going to say we were wrong because I can see. It's almost as though I feel to myself, David, and this is not me arrogant. I'm looking at this and saying, excuse me, why haven't you said anything? Why are you letting him do this? But you are. Am I the only person that can see this?
Yeah. It's exactly, you know, where there's a concern, where I'm concerned, is that the Democrats don't exist. Yes. You know, I don't know what they're doing. All they're doing is, instead of saying, okay, this is Trump, this is where we want to go, and starting to build something, which I have to say, and I'm not a supporter of it, is this. the Democratic mayor, what's it, of New York. It begins with an M, Mdali or something. I don't want to mispronounce him.
But, I mean, he has this youngster who's one of the few Democrats who's making a difference, whether you like him or not. I mean, he's caused a huge stir because he's a Muslim and he's young, but he's doing something. He's going out there and... soliciting voters. He's talking to people down below. But he's got a policy. So I can't endorse him because I don't know enough about him. But I'm saying at least there's somebody doing something who's attracting attention.
But the rest of the Democrats... Just don't say a thing. You don't hear them. You never see them. There's no voice. So I think that's also been one of the big problems. And I think a lot of the Democratic supporters are shifting the other way, you know, to Trump. But, Lindsay, sometimes you can understand. I saw an advert from Sephora yesterday. Yeah. And without starting a political discussion or a… whatever the discussion is, I just, you can understand why people get angered.
You know, this is in the same light as Jaguar or the same light as Budweiser. There was a Sephora advert of this man, you know, a very good-looking man with stubble and a hair product, you know, had this beautiful flowing hair. You remember we'd have, for hair adverts, you'd have these women with this. big, lots of hair kind of swirling it around. Love the swirling hair. They've got a man doing this, kind of looking at it. I said, a male, I said, no, you can't.
I said, you just push the boundaries too much. And then on the other hand, you've seen this absolute furor about American Eagle because they had Sydney Sweeney. who was a very beautiful young woman, blonde hair, blue eyes, and saying, you know, she's got good genes. And they had good genes, meaning denim jeans, J-E-A-N-S. Yes. But, of course, it was interpreted as good genes, genius. So there's been a massive outcry because she's white, blonde, and blue eyes.
You know, you're still getting that side of America.
if you understand what i mean this is still conservative it's still conservative and it's still it's still xenophobic as well david how many how many americans have passports how many of them travel and i think it's probably more than it was when i heard that the only 16 of americans had passports it must have gone up since then because that must have been 20 30 years ago they don't know they don't know about the world they don't know about the world David in Jenna. Not compared to a European.
They travel internally. You know, I don't, I think they go on camps. You know, I mean, the kids go to camp. It's a massive country, so there's plenty of places to visit. And beautiful as well, of course. Yeah, it's very interesting to actually analyze the, you know, those statistics. I know what has happened because of Trump is that the numbers coming in have dropped. Oh, yeah. You know, when you say dropped, I mean they're not increasing. So the 3%, 4% drop is at the margin.
It makes a big difference. So certainly foreigners are avoiding America. If I, heaven forbid, went to America, they'd look at my phone because they're allowed to now, and they'd say immediately, they'd keep me locked up for a couple of days and then send me back because of all the anti-Trump stuff I've got on there. Yeah. Well, they can make it difficult. If you were an outspoken critic, you know, if you were applying for a work visa or as a journalist or something, they might stop you.
But I'm not sure as a traveler. But still, it's... The embassies, David, the embassies have put out a directive and it was three weeks ago to say, make sure that you've got your devices available to be scrutinized, essentially. So that's what they're looking for.
but it's it's uh it's certainly people avoiding america you know it's and it probably will gather steam and that's that's important you know for those particularly people in in the catchment areas and you're not i don't know about mexico i'm sure they're not going but canadians are are certainly shunning america in a big way um yeah yeah there's a there's a there's a I can understand it's become an ugly nation. It's a nation of ugly people. Every day that you see Trump on TV, he's never nice.
He's never saying anything nice. I mean, other than America's great and those kind of superlatives. But there's no softness to him. He's like a schoolyard bully. You tolerate him. I don't know if you were ever at schools where you had those kind of people who went around. You know, you didn't want to start with him or antagonize him. You just kind of nodded at them and walked past. And he's that kind of person, you know.
and under your breath you wish that somebody would just come and beat him up you know and take him out so you could celebrate and cheer so he's that kind of person you know yes he is he's the schoolyard bully uh but he happens to be in the white house not the schoolyard anyway david i'll get over my frustration the schoolyard yeah it's become But I do worry about the... the America that you fell in love with, David. That's the point I'm trying to make here. That is the point.
You know, I mean, I love that. Where the power lies, this is where I'm not criticizing Skolk, I think, but what I'm differing from him is that America still remains an incredibly powerful nation. They've got the schools. They've got the skills. And there's the debate about the future of technology. I don't think anybody can dislodge them at the moment. You know, you're seeing it even with those NVIDIA chips, Tencent's using it.
Nobody wants to use the slower or, you know, other chips, Huawei, et cetera, that can't compete with the age 20. So that's where America, they've got the schools. You know, they're producing the papers. They are attracting the best. Go look at the if you look at the bankers, they all look the same. They're all dressed in suits with nice hair and whatever it is, shaved, and they're wearing Brooks Brothers shirts and tie. And then go and look at the tech chaps.
All of them are either Asian, Indian, and so on. All the clever people are going to America.
have been there or been naturalized born there whatever it is okay but you're talking about one specific sector david and it's very it's a big thing and somebody that didn't know you would say you're being narrow-minded about this and what i'm talking about is society and society is bigger than tech and and if trump becomes a even more authoritarian than he is now if he becomes a dictator which he wants to do don't forget we're only eight months into his office not
even eight months into his office. Look what he's done. Look how he's infiltrated various Augustan institutions. If it continues, then there will be a market problem, and it will start with bonds. That was the point I was making with Skulk yesterday. Skulk just thinks the market is overvalued. Yes. You know why he's doing this all up front is that the elections next year or the midterm elections could change things. You know, that's where he has to do it before then.
but Look, at the moment I'm indifferent about America. I go there to see family, but I don't get the same kind of excitement or joy from America. And a lot of the reason is because I can't understand, as you say, the social side of America. How can you allow this to happen? And to be honest, Lindsay, I see it on both sides. I see the extreme left and the extreme right. You know, how can you allow this? You know, how can you tolerate it? Surely you want to move towards the middle.
Yes. So it's not that. But where else do we go? Where else is there? You stay where you are, David. You stay where you are until otherwise advised. Okay. That's the only advice I can give you. Okay. We've been rambling on like a couple of. I'll tell you. I was talking about the UK and I was saying, oh, you know, you watch Keir Starmer and everything. I said, thank God for the English Premier League. I said, if it wasn't for the Premier League, I'd have nothing to have an interest in.
Which starts this weekend. Which starts this weekend. Yeah, but I'm not looking forward to it as much as I have been other seasons because there's been so much football in between. But anyway, it doesn't matter. Let's get on to the market. You look excited. Yeah, we'll see. Yeah, whatever. It's which got knocked out of the League Cups against Bromley Town. Oh, really? Yeah, don't talk about it. No more.
Dollar round is 1765 or 1750 this time yesterday, but still a good strong currency and has been all year. The euro round is 2057. The British pound against the round 2390. Euro dollar 116.50 was closer to 117.50 yesterday, so the dollar has made a bit of a comeback. British pound.
um three year high actually earlier on today 135.40 at the moment against the US dollar let's get on to commodities now gold price is down 15 to 33.70 an ounce platinum up 15 to 13.58 palladium up 24 best performer to $11.56 an ounce. And that oil price, which interests me strangely, it fascinates me, it's doing nicely today. It's actually jumped a percent since we've been speaking, David. $66.86, suddenly nearly 2% up. That's for Brent crude. West Texas crude is $63.82, up nearly 2% as well.
What other commodities can I give you? Not much, actually. Silver down 1.3%. But anyway, Bitcoin did go to all-time record highs, I heard all some crypt Crypto went all-time recognized. But Bitcoin itself is down 2.3% on my screen, 118,169. South African 10-year still doing well, 9.60% on the close. The U.S. 10-year ticking up, actually. It's up about a percent to 4.8%. But still stuck in a range, S&P 500. That's down a fraction. 64.81, that's the September futures.
Let me tell you something about the JSC today and what went up and what went down share-wise. Hold on, let me scroll down here. Here we go. I've got, and you can contradict me, David, I've got Carew up 3.3%. Standard Bank is the best of the big ones, up nearly 3%. Datatech up 2.3%. We Buy Cars up 2.3%. Downside, South 32%.
down 6.3 percent is that ex-dividend i don't know uh true was down four are they closing mosul i think there's a little bit of a worry there because uh mosul aluminium was a is is a project that they have in mozambique you know an aluminium producer remember that name yeah and uh because electricity prices or power prices are so high so They're going to have to phase out of it. And I think that's caused a bit of a stir. It's also going to cause massive unemployment or laying off of jobs.
So I think that was an announcement that came out. It's been expected. We are not, you know, with electricity prices up, we are not a natural aluminium producer. It's, you know, it's the electricity that has made it cheap. And that's why historically we've had these smelters. Okay, thanks for that explanation. True was down 4.7%. Explain that.
was that x dead a bad number yeah just a bad bad trading update okay okay they're not doing well here aspen down three and three quarters omnia down three in a bit and that's it uh david any other stocks on the jsc that you want to talk about you don't have to no they i i think that's mainly i i think you've identified it that's why i'm surprised you know when you spoke about the banks i think that's going up on dividend yields but apart from that it's been a Quite clear.
It's been a fairly robust market. I must admit there's been quite a bit of activity, but I think the commodity price is down today. Also, we saw 10 cent falling, and I think that's just put some weight on the market through process and aspects that are beneficial. They shot up yesterday, of course, on the 10 cent numbers in the morning. David, when you started on the JSC in wherever it was, was it Diagonal Street or was it the one before?
Yeah, Pollard. Hollard Street. Hollard Street and then Diagonal Street. Before your time. Would you ever have thought the all-share index was close to 102,000 on the close? Look at that. Incredible, isn't it? Extraordinary. And it's down a bit as well today. But it's funny enough, it's the gold shares and miners that have taken it up there. And I suppose to an extent, I suppose process on that. But it's been a gold market this year that's really got it up.
Sadly, my dad, who was a major gold bull, he dealt him gold shears his whole life, loved gold. He would have loved this, although he would have been about 120 or 115 at this stage. Well, his son's going that way now. I'm sure in about 20 years' time, if I'm still doing this, in what capacity, I'll say, and now we speak to the world's oldest man, David Shapiro, and for some reason you'll sound 25 years old. But that's what everybody says about you.
Give us the closing indices, if you would, David. Well, on the JC, the… Oil share index ended down 0.28% at 101.993, with the miners that took them down, but also some of the industrials. So the mining index down 1.25%. Financial steady, and that I think a lot to do with Standard Bank, the bank index up 0.9%. But industrials down 0.25%, and I think largely because of NASPR's process. And I'm just looking at Richemont.
No, Richemont was actually up today, but it was ABN, British American tobacco, Vase came down and I think exerted some kind of pressure. Strangely enough, Precious was up and Asper's was down today. So a mix in the market. I'm just going to look at the volumes. They've been quite good recently. They have been. Moderate today, well, $24 billion, but there were a lot of deals that went through. I'm not sure what those were right at the end. Off the market, that was about $6 billion.
But still dominated NASPIR, Standard Bank, Goldfields, Anglo Gold. They've been the big traders. David, thank you very much for your time as always. David Shapiro is at Sassfin Securities in Johannesburg. And that was the 5 o'clock shadow. The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and various contributors and do not reflect the policy, position, or opinion of any other agency, organization, employer or company associated with StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.
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