#632: Bond Market Wars with Tom Luongo

You've had a dynamic where money has become freer than free. You talk about a Fed just gone nuts. All the central banks going nuts. So it's all acting like safe haven. I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency, Bitcoin wins. In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor. I mean, that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin. If you're not paying attention, you probably should be.

Having been in the process of this move for the better part of a month, I've been somewhat disconnected, which seems like, I don't know if it's a good or bad time to be disconnected, but ending the week, I think this is becoming our thing. Friday night. Right. End of, uh, in the very chaotic weeks, we catch up. Uh, I'm sun kissed. I've got salt. I've got Atlantic ocean salt water on my skin right now. Just came out of the ocean. Right. I feel I'm relaxed. Good for you. Excited. Excited.

Excited to, uh, to unpack everything that's going on. What the hell is going on? Where, where do we even start?

That's a good question. There's so many things to say. say and I'll be honest with you Marty I have already done the whole I've done four or five things in the last three days multi-hour you know phone calls podcasts three and a half hour Twitter space on Tuesday night just got done with two hours with Alex Craner yesterday where I think Alex and I had our very first you know, serious disagreement about things ever, either public or privately.

And it wasn't, you know, bad or anything, but I, it was, it was stressful for both of us. It was especially stressful for me because I, I don't like to, I, I, I love Alex too much to, you know, publicly disagree with him about things or, or knowing full well that I was probably going to trigger him. And, and so I, and I was really worried about that. And so it probably then my anxiety over that translated into my performance and like now I feel bad about that.

So where are we? We have about five different domains where everything is like blowing up, right? You've got Israel, Iran. You've got what I'm uncovering in the, what I'm seeing in the financial markets. I just did a Bitcoin conference down in Tampa over the weekend. The Bitcoin Bay group invited me down there and I was able to chat with a bunch of Bitcoiners about all the stuff that I, you know, talk about, right. Which was great because, you know, they're,

they had never really ever heard any of this stuff from me. Right. And I was brought in there specifically by my friend Chris Sullivan of Hiberian Decimus to, um, who's been on my podcast a couple of times and, um, and to discuss these things and to introduce those ideas to that community, which was very successful, by the way. And, yeah, it's been a hell of a week, right? All this is going on.

I think it's clear that we have a civil war that's trying to start a civil war here in the United States. And it all comes back to the same thing. I keep saying it over and over again. It's all about the bond market, dude.

I hate this. It's all about the bond market. Can they destroy the U.S. Treasury market? And keep capital from flowing into the U.S. It's always the same thing over and over and over again. And that's what I keep saying. And, you know, the stakes keep getting higher. But the target remains the same.

That is a great place to start because I threw out a couple of tweets, one of which you responded to, particularly around interest rates and context of interest rates, Fed funds rate. And I think we should anchor around that. Like Trump, in this position with everything going on, whether it's immigration, civil war, Iran, Israel, Ukraine, Russia, we'll throw that in there. We've talked about this many times. He's focused on the economy, growth, making sure everything's okay, get to midterms.

So it's Republicans can keep the House and the Senate and then roll into the 12-year plan from there, hopefully, if things are all humming. And I guess that's what I tweeted out. That's the one thing that's perplexing to me, particularly this week with everything going on in Israel and Iran is his continued battering of Jerome Powell to lower rates when it seems like the tariffs are working.

It seems like the economy is doing much better than everybody was saying it was going to do once he got in office and started with his drastic policy changes. And to me, lowering rates is a sign of weakness if nothing is structurally wrong in the economy, if there's no liquidity problems in the plumbing of the financial system, if unemployment is at a good level, if inflation is at a good level.

why rush to lower interest rates, particularly when a war is starting, another war is starting in the Middle East, which is going to be highly inflationary for oil prices if it continues to escalate. That would be the worst time to lower interest rates. Right. And when you look at it from that perspective, it's really, really difficult to be upset with Powell holding back on cutting at this point in time. I'll be honest with you, I spent the last couple days on trying to do all this,

figure out what's going on with the war, and write this month's newsletter. And I was trying to write that, and it fits and starts all week. And I just finished the article where I talk about the markets, basically, in our portfolio review and all that. And I was looking at it, and when I took a look at the markets, It's it. Sometimes you think it's maybe it's wishful thinking. Some things that I know, I know these things well enough. Trust my instincts on this.

It feels like the markets are starting to push back. That capital starting to fall back into the United States. We had a big wave where it all moved out into the, you know, into emerging markets in Europe. And now it's we're starting to see the rollover. We're starting to see the pushback this way again. And as much as they tried to pull the tide out of the U.S. and keep the money from flowing back in, you know, that was an operation. And they spent a lot of money on those operations.

And I've talked about them. I don't remember. I think we talked about it back during the tariff. The last time I spoke was after the tariff tantrum.

And I now have the TIC data, which confirms that Mark Carney ran an operation with U.S. Treasuries.

yeah because you were you were it was i think the day or two before they were releasing that data when we last spoke yeah and you were you had a hunch that there was going to be something in that well it was it was the the the the tic data uh it was always two months in arrears so what i said back then was that you know this is what i think is going on but we won't get confirmation until june because the april data won't come out until june and the tic report comes out around the 15th

of every month whether there's you know whether it's on the weekends or the holiday or something along those lines. So here we are. It's June 20th. Right. And when the TIC data was out, and as I was working on that article, I was saying to myself, I think I smell capital starting to flow back in the U.S. The DAX is rolling over. The Euro Stocks 50 is now starting to underperform the Dow. The euro is topping out. The pound is topping out.

You know, okay, so this whole weak dollar trade, we're starting to see the long end of the yield curve creep back down away from 5%. Now we're down into the 485 range on the 30-year. Like, that's telling me that there's something happening here. And the Dow is up and then it's holding steady. And we can move back up into the 42s and it's kind of holding steady. Yeah, it's been volatile this week with Israel and Iran and, you know, people going to cash. And that's perfectly reasonable.

But the other thing I've noted is that the short-term T-bill market is gone.

It's starting to seize up. and this was happening before Powell declined to cut rates, which guess what? No one was surprised about, but the SMB, the Swiss National Bank, went back to the zero bound. The Riksbank in Sweden dropped another quarter point. The ECB cut again, and while Trump could be out there thinking like a New York State real estate developer, going, I need lower rates in order to do all these big projects that I've got coming.

That's his bag, and I understand that's his point of view. You've got his Treasury Secretary, Bessent, clearly running an operation on draining the LBMA of all their gold.

And Powell sitting there going, look, I've got these people on the ropes because now I saw the Hong Kong dollar. I'll go look at the Hong Kong dollar. It's pegged at the top of the range. It's been there for 10 days. I haven't seen the Hong Kong dollar pegged at the top at either the bottom or the top of its very tight peg in years. And this was three years ago. I think it was the last time I saw something like this happen.

And I'm like, but this is big now because it's not only happening there, it's happening in the T-bill market. We're seeing the one-month market across all of Europe. I just like the quick scan the other day or yesterday or end today. The yield curve's across Europe, and there's seizure happening in the one-month market over there. They're selling off. The reason, so we have a weird thing is setting up in the T-bill market right now, the one to three months.

You've got the one month is down below the Fed funds, the bottom of the Fed funds range. But you've got the two-month at 4.5%, 4.55. You've got the three-month is up as well. So you've got a weird moment where you've got your 418, 456, 435 or something like that.

So there's this big inversion or big spike on the two-month. Why are people doing that? I tweeted out this morning. What's going on in the 60-day T-bell market? But it started happening last week because I chart it all the time. Every market report, I update my chart on Wednesdays and Sundays every week. It's just part of my routine. So I'm constantly looking at these credit spreads within the U.S. treasury market all the time. And they were flat and boring.

And I've been like, yeah, there's no stress in the markets. Sofa's not moving. Nothing's going on here. It's kind of boring, actually. And now it's starting to crack. If there's a big rush in the dollars, you have people who are sitting overseas in T-bills, and they're selling the crap out of them because they need dollars. And that's happening in the two-month and the three-month market.

And then the one-month market, I suspect, I called Vince Honchi up this afternoon, like, Vince, this is what I'm seeing. And I said, this is what I think is going on. He's like, absolutely. The one-month market, people are needing repos and collateral.

So they're buying one-month, 30-day T-bills in order to be able to have the collateral do 7- and 14-day repos. So you're getting this jumble in the market all at the same time.

and like and then the hong kong dollar is pegged and that's getting drained and the hong kong monetary authority is having to defend the peg by dumping treasuries to hold the peg because people are looking for dollars so powell has been very effective in upsetting the offshore dollar markets exactly as i've been talking about for years and we might be at that inflection point where something's about the crack.

I don't know what. It could be the Hong Kong dollar peg. Been waiting for it forever and a day. And with the amount of dollars flowing through to get back to China

because of the tariffs, and right now all of a sudden, yeah, dollars are kind of scarce in Hong Kong. And I think those dollars that are being demanded in Hong Kong are going back to London. Because if you want to look at it this way, the city of London in London, their city of East London in Singapore, and their city of Far East London in Hong Kong. That's kind of the way I'm looking at it now, right?

I coined those phrases like this afternoon when I was writing this section of the newsletter. I'm like, that makes perfect sense. So this is all happening against the backdrop of Israel-Iran,

and Trump is, you know, I think he's playing... I have a long argument about what I think is going on with Israel, Ron. And it comes down to, it's going to make me sad. And I'm getting roasted on Twitter for this. I'm getting roasted everywhere. I'm getting roasted because of the comments, because of the video I did with Alex yesterday, where at times we got a little heated with each other. and and of course I'm making the argument that Israel could have been betrayed by the city of London

over the JCPOA and over Iran enrichment in the nuclear weapon let's it's complicated but it really comes down to what if the fucking British as always are on both sides of the conflict hey let's you and he fight and what would get israel angry and what would what would iran why would iran get angry and over the course of the last 40 years the iranians have rightly pursued an axis of resistance against u.s uk israeli aggression towards them that israel is

their land-based aircraft carrier in the middle of the british aircraft carrier in the middle east We have a whole bunch of American politicians who were bought and paid for by all this euro dollar fuckery, for all lack of a better term. And the whole LIBOR system bought all these politicians. We have all these dual citizenship, disloyal people in Congress and the Senate.

Well, they're all aging out, dude. Davos has got to use that asset. this Israeli asset that they have, they've got to use this. I am using the terms Davos and City of London interchangeably now, just so you know. I'm thinking to myself, strategically, I'm thinking like the guy at the dune table or whatever. How do I get the two of them to fight and beat the hell out of each other so that I can swoop in and win the game Well this is how you do it In this case it actually a three It actually three

You're trying to set three players against each other, Israel, Iran, and the United States. You're trying to get all of them to do exactly what you want them to do. And then there's Russia as well.

And when you put it all together, the solve is the Iranian nuclear program is the forever war.

that's the impetus that's the impetus of the forever war right two weeks away for the last 30 years right well yes exactly and netanyahu when he was a good loyal you know stooge for the zionists kept using that as a talking point in order to get what he wanted for israel right Iran in the face of this rightly forms this axis of resistance strategy starts to pursue nuclear weapons because of what we were doing in Iraq during the Iraq war and all this other stuff I don't blame them for doing that

I never have but I still don't think they should have a nuclear weapon I don't think the North Koreans should have a nuclear weapon I don't think the Israelis should have a nuclear weapon I don't think anybody should have nuclear weapons, if you want my honest opinion.

But here we are. This is the world I've got, not the world I want. So now let's put – yeah. So you're with me? I was just going to say that's like the frustrating thing is like if you're anti this conflict and any U.S. involvement, it's like you're pro-Is Iran having nukes.

And it's like no. Right. And that's a false dyad. and another false die-out for you is after World War II, Israel was the Jews were the perfect victim and post 10-7 they're the perfect villain

and I'm not a big fan, you know how big a fan I am of the classic triangle of hero, victim, villain to explain all narratives because this is what you do and this is how stories are constructed, this is how narratives are constructed It's, you know, depending on which perspective you want to look at, you want to view the conflict will determine who's the victim, who's the villain, and who's the hero. So now let's play this game out.

Up until 2015, or really up until 2010, 2009, 2008, 2010, Iran is pursuing this policy. Obama, apparently, if you go back and you really, and I've had my memory on all this refreshed. There was a good article by Jack Cashel on his sub-stack the other day, just kind of going through all this. Not his commentary through it, but just all the timeline of events.

Now, I've always said that Obama negotiated the JCPOA on behalf of Davos because Davos wanted, in Europe, wanted access to Iran's oil and gas. They wanted to use that as the new market and they wanted to invest billions and billions of dollars into Iran. And that was the carrot that Obama used in order to get the JCPOA. But the JCPOA was designed, and this is where Netanyahu, as a serial liar and a scumbag and everything else, this is where it works against him.

Because he wasn't wrong that the JCPOA wasn't really stopping Iran from enriching uranium for weapons-grade purposes. Iran could play this bullshit game of lying through their teeth that they weren't, it was all for medical isotopes, it was all for this. Well, medical isotopes, you only need 20%. Why the fuck do you have 60%? Okay? You only have 60% uranium because you want a nuclear bomb.

So it's all bullshit.

like Iran's position on this is untenable because they're lying had they been saying look we don't we're not pursuing a nuclear weapon the fatwa against nuclear weapons that the that that the Ayatollah has um that the Ayatollah issued is real and maybe just maybe he believes that and there's another faction within Iran say the IRGC or some other hardliner faction within Iran that is like no no we're going to do this because this is the only way we're going to keep the Israelis

and the Americans and the British off our asses. But what happens here if you're looking at this going, okay, so Obama comes in and negotiates to JCPOA. By the way, you remember he kicked Iran out of the SWIFT system the first time in December 2011.

So he used that as a means by which to get Iran to the frigging table to negotiate this deal. So the Iranians weren't crazy about this deal either. So no one was happy with it. But maybe this speaks to where I was a couple of days ago. Maybe I was wrong about that. Maybe Alex Cranor is right that Iran never really, quote unquote, made a deal with Davos. But it's hard to see how the Ayatollah and everybody have reacted since then.

Because since the war started, all the statements and all the little bits and pieces that have come out all point to Iran's working with Davos to fuck the United States.

and fuck Israel because they really do mean death to America and death to Israel. It's not just rhetoric to get everybody to the table. Maybe. Again, we have fungible information here. I am presenting all of this stuff to try and put together the best thesis I can, but I don't think this thesis is complete. If we don't look at all these things carefully, we can't come... All we're going to do then is blindly accept whatever propaganda best fits our model of the world.

And in that case, everybody, all the Jewsburgs out there are like, you know, it's all the Jews. They run America. They're all powerful, blah, blah, blah, blah. And, you know, Iran is the good guy, which I don't believe. Or you have the other side of it, which is you have the neocons, which are saying Israel is trying to save the world from the crazy Iranians, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

But what they really want is to take over Iran, install a Rothschild central bank, break up bricks, break up the international north-south transport corridor that the Russians want, and start the colonization of Central Asia, which is what they want. And we know that's bullshit, too. So we're all predisposed towards hating the neocons because we've lived with them and they're perfidy for 50 freaking years and we can see right through them.

But on the other side of that gambit is whether or not Iran is actually working with Europe to get what they want.

And if they believe that the best way to destroy Israel and the United States is to keep the chaos of their nuclear weapons program and string everybody along and fake negotiate over not getting a nuclear weapon, then that tracks with what we've seen so now let's think about this now let's look at some of the data that's to suggest that iran hasn't been doing exactly that so we've all seen how crown prince palavi is now the guy who they want to install in iran right the ayatollah came out

and Khomeini came out and said, we support Zelensky and their fight for Ukraine. When Khomeini is supposed to be tied with the Russians,

but he didn't make that statement until after the Russians refused to help them against Israel. Because the Russians have stood down and said, get back to the negotiating table.

And by the way, the Russians had put a stronger defense, neutral defense agreement on the table to the Iranians two months, two, three months ago when they signed that agreement, they put a stronger one on the table and the Iranians rejected it because they didn't want to be tied to Russia. So they were playing everybody. So again, how many and the IRGC are playing this game?

Just like they always do. So again, I have no problem with the Iranian, like, I hate to say it, I sound like Benjamin Netanyahu last week. I have no problem with the Iranian people. I just don't want to see these freaking crazy mullahs have a nuclear weapon to blackmail the world with.

Because them having a nuclear weapon furthers Davos' ability to blackmail all of us with nuclear holocaust. Because you know damn well that the Israelis are never going to stand down if these people have a nuclear weapon. Which is what I mean when I say the Iranians pursuing a nuclear weapon is the forever war. It's the way to keep this thing going forever.

and I think this is what happened you have one of two scenarios I just laid out the I just laid out the evil mustache twirling version of Iran and how many there's the other side of it which is that they realize that their their game has reached an end Hezbollah has been basically beaten the Houthis are pretty much done certainly since Iran can't even run out of halfway decent events against what Israel's doing. They're a freeing F-16s flying over Tehran.

They're running cap over Tehran, for Christ's sake.

The Russians stood down. The Saudis and all the Gulf states aided Israel's defense openly, shooting interceptors to shoot down Iranian missiles coming in. After three years of the Saudis and the Iranians doing negotiations to normalize relations.

right Erdogan and his pets his pets in Syria allowed them to use Syrian airspace to fly into Iran Trump came out and said I've always known the date of when this attack was going to happen you know why? because it was timed with the LA riots the fight over the big beautiful bill the this all these other things that Davos had set up on their freaking Gantt chart to turn into this week's crazy.

So what did Trump do? Two months ago, he said, Iran, you've got 60 days to negotiate a deal. On day 61, he let Bibi attack. He didn't attack. He just let Bibi attack. Do what he always wanted to do. But here's another. So that's part number one. So now, is Netanyahu still working for City of London? And then they're trying to sneak in, meet the new boss, same as the old boss in Tehran?

it's a perfectly valid argument but here's the one that's even more interesting and the one I think might actually be the case ready the JCPOA was a fundamental betrayal of Israel by City of London like a fundamental betrayal you knew it was the one thing

that would set in motion eventually when he gets when he's got a group of people in power that eventually actually let me back it up a second what did I say about Hamas after 10-7 they were a rapidly depreciating asset that somebody had to use or lose Iran getting a nuclear weapon they have so much 60% of rich uranium now they can't play this game anymore the IAEA has been covering for Iran since the JCPOA and then they finally put out a report

which like lays out even if it's even if it's half bullshit it's still an overwhelming amount of 60 percent enriched uranium now for a lot of people in the audience who may not know this going from 60 to 90 percent is easy getting from zero getting from three percent to 60 percent is the hard part actually getting to three percent is really hard what i'm saying is that that nuclear fuel is easier to purify as you go as you go on as you go up the purity curve which is

completely ass backwards from everything else we know in chemistry right i've used this you know if you were to sit down and talk with dave column if dave column and i were both here we'd be talking

about organic synthesis and since dave's you know the chairman is the chair of organic chemistry at fucking cornell and i would make this argument to him he would be he would be nodding his head going yes getting doing an organic synthesis reaction getting low yield is easy you take the stuff you write a reaction or equation you put the stuff in the in a in a in a round bottom flask you turn on the bunsen burner you do the thing you get you get some yield and you can make a dirty

you get a dirty product right you want to optimize that and get from like 50 or 60 percent yield to 90% yield, that requires the chemical engineers to really fine-tune the temperature control and the pressure control and when you add new reagents and how you bring them in and how you go from gross chemistry to a finely-tuned chemical engineering process that gets you the best bang for your buck, the highest purity stuff for the least amount of money.

that's the way it normally works in your head and most engineers would think oh getting from 60 to 90 is the hard part because the pareto takes over right no it's actually easier to go from 60 uf6 to 90 uf6 meaning you could netanyahu wasn't lying for once yeah they're two weeks away with nuclear weapon why because they have a stockpile of 60 uranium that they can turn into 90 in a week if they've got the casing and they've got the mechanism and they've got the trigger, building a nuclear bomb

ain't that fucking hard. It's the fuel that's the hard part. So, now,

I know we're getting a little lost here, but there's a lot to cover. Now, imagine... I've been following along. What's that? And you may say, I don't want to spoil what could be the ending, but as you're saying this, I'm thinking too, and I'm not going to pretend to be some expert on Israeli politics and the pulse of the social layer of Israel. But it does seem like from what I'm hearing domestically, like Netanyahu, BB is like on the ropes.

And so like if you're looking for like, get this out of him and then replace him.

Wait, let's back that up because I have good data from my friend Halsey English who's both Israeli and a former journalist over there and lives in New Jersey and is not Netanyahu's biggest fan. And he and I had a long conversation on Tuesday afternoon before we did the space on Tuesday night with a four I invited him in along with P. Canones and Dexter White and we we did a we did a long thing and and And I'm not saying I'm not saying to take everything that Halsey said as gospel

But it closer to the truth in reality than what you being what you hearing in the propaganda because I known this and I known Halsey a very very long time And we used to do live streams together back in 2017 2018 Like, this is not, this is a guy, and this is a guy who, by the way, has been persecuted by the IRS. FYI. So, now, just putting that out there, folks. So, Netanyahu, so if you look at the ACPOA, as like the first stage of how they're going to betray Israel.

After 100 years of backing them and creating them to be this force of chaos in the Middle East and to split the Arab world and do all this rotten nonsense, right, in order to colonize, you know, and run their MacKinder playbook and all that crap. But at some point, Israel becomes a rapidly depreciating asset

because Israel can only be maintained so long as you've got an America willing to back it. Right. So John McCain's dead. Lindsey Graham is aging out. He's going to probably get primary. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Hillary Clinton's gone. Obama's out of the picture. You know, Rumsfeld's dead. Wolfowitz is out of the picture. Dick Cheney's out of the picture. Liz Cheney's out of the picture. Like, I can keep going. All these neocons are pretty much gone. There's only a few of them left.

But they're still powerful. They still have powerful positions in the Senate and the House. So they're there, and AIPAC is spending more money now trying to hold on to whatever control they have left. That's why Miriam Adelson's out there spending $100 million on Trump's campaign to try and get access, keep access.

So now, the last roadblock is on the ground. Now, it starts there. What I've been positing over the last few 72 hours or so is what if Netanyahu and the Israelis finally realized, yeah, we're no longer useful to that.

What would be the inciting incident where they would break completely with the old city of London agenda? 10-7. And 10-7 is, was, and will always be an MI6 operation.

When 10-7 happened, wait, just wait for a second. Let me finish this one out. And again, in my conversation with Alex Cranor, I did with Crypto Rich yesterday, Alex supported my argument on this by going through chapter and verse how MI6 was probably involved. with the Qataris and parts of Hamas. Okay. 10-7 was a British and Qatari-based false flag.

What's the one thing that you can do to get all of Israel that is kind of split on this whole thing and get them riled up and all marching in one lockstep to wipe out the Palestinians? kill 1,800 people in the most brutal way imaginable? So let me ask you a question. What happened to the United States after 9-11?

Were you old enough to know? Because I am. I was thrown out of gun shops in North Florida starting on 9-12. The entirety of the United States was all in on the kill all the Muslims, start the global war on air. There was no anti-war movement in 2002. Justin Raimondo wrote article after article on antiwar.com for three years, every Monday, every Wednesday, and every Friday. He destroyed himself writing about this, and he was right. and he saw it all the way out.

We didn't have an anti-war movement in the United States. The libertarians and the greens needed to come together. He exhorted us, come together, form a real anti-war corps, get rid of all the other stuff. We need to do this because this is bullshit. What's happening? And they were right. What happened? We were the minority and we were in the weeds. We were in the wilderness until Ron Paul emerged on 2008 and took down Rudy Giuliani.

took six years worth of what we had what happened in iraq and everything else or seven years practically in order for that to finally start percolating through the zeitgeist in america and it really didn't reach its full flower until trump won in 2016 took 15 years

so for anybody to use the idea that the israeli people are evil because 85 percent of them believe and wiping out the Palestinians after all these years, it's not fair. Because we've all, and I said this to Alex yesterday, I didn't say it calmly, we were yelling at each other. I said, Alex, you lived through the Yugoslavian Civil War. You know how they set everybody against each other with this kind of stuff. You know how they do this.

I lived through it in 9-11, and the Israelis have lived through it here. It was a betrayal, 10-7.

and at that point if I'm Benjamin Netanyahu I go to everybody I go to everybody in the Knesset and everybody's like yeah you know what he's the only guy for the job to get this done because he's the only one with the balls he's the only one with the the stones he's the only one with enough support and everybody hates Bibi in Israel he's pissed everybody off he has no political friends he has no successor he has nothing because he's such a fucking

horrible political animal. He has betrayed literally everyone inside Israel. Everyone. He's betrayed his American benefactors. He's betrayed everybody.

And so when you see Netanyahu from that perspective, which is what my friend Halsey did for me the other day, I'm like, oh yeah, it makes perfect sense. Everybody's like, yeah, dude, you want to do this? You can be the guy to go do this. You go to attack Iran. We wipe our hands of you. including Trump. Now, what if this was always the plan?

At some point, Israel was going to be used as it was going to be turned into the perfect villain so that they can be the scapegoat for destroying Iran. And the goal is for Davos to turn that into a massive PSYOP as a means by which to destroy Trump. Go back to our conversations during the campaign. What did I tell you after 10-7?

The Democrats are going to run on a pro-Palestinian platform in order to hang Trump with his pro-Israeli position. They didn't do it. They saved it. And they saved it for this week. Here we are. And they're trying to conflate. And you note the five seconds after Trump, after Netanyahu's, The reports came in that Netanyahu was bombing out of Tehran. Everybody tried to blame Trump for it. The propaganda was off the charts.

In the same way that on 10-7, before the bodies were culled on 10-7, the pro-Palestinian propaganda was out in force, and all of the anti-Semites that had been deplatformed and went into hiding seven years ago, eight years ago, they were all activated on Twitter. they were all active again every bit of them it was all over 4chan

it was all they were everywhere Dexter White and I have been talking about this for a year and a half because he monitors that shit directly and he's like dude I'm seeing 20, 30 accounts that I haven't seen they haven't been active for 7 years and all of a sudden they're out tweeting again they play dormant waiting big push so the goal was turn the Jews into the perfect villain by allowing everybody to finally say, oh my God, these evil Jews and how they've destroyed America

and everything else, into the zeitgeist of an American public that is clearly tired of fighting forever wars

for Israel or India or anybody. We don't want to fight anybody's war anymore. Yeah. And now the IC is trying to get rid of Pelosi Gabbard at the same time. I mean, it's all happening and it's all coming from the same goddamn place. And if Iran played along with any of that and the service of those fucking vampires at Davos and Evil Corp Central, fuck them. The mullahs deserve to get wiped out. I have no... I'm sorry. I don't give a fuck. Fuck you.

No. Die. And I don't care if Netanyahu's the one. As a matter of fact, I prefer Netanyahu to do it because they get wiped out. The Israelis have already torched their friggin' standing in the world. So now it all backfires on them.

It becomes a Pyrrhic victory. And I get my preferred outcome, Marty. Ready? A tie and a lot of injuries. I'm dead serious I'm sitting here I'm sitting here Digesting this Because I heard Completely different theory Last night Watching Or listening to The No Agenda podcast I think Adam and Dvorak Did a good job Dissecting it

And their Conclusion was like Very different But like sort of similar outcome, which was about China. Essentially, if you looked at what's happening in Syria, you can go back to Libya, what's happening in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq. Basically, they were bringing back the video of that general. Wesley Clark. Yeah, many years ago. He was like, here's the plan. We're going to go through Iraq, Afghanistan. Libya, Syria, eventually getting to Iran. Iran is the final boss, yes.

Yeah. And their thesis was essentially like,

it's gotten to the point for Trump, like he gave the 60-day, basically, ultimatum, and their thesis was like, during that 60 days, Trump was going to them, basically saying, don't do business with China, don't fall prey to the Belt and Road, sort of trapped, they're trying to set free, like do business with us. Day 61 hits,

and Trump goes, Bibi, do what you want to do. And I guess their perspective is like, just throw Bibi out there to do it and leave Israel out the hang. So it wasn't like Davos-centric, but like U.S.-centric. Just trying to digest all of it because that's the thing that I've learned eight years into trying to dissect all this. It's like fog of war, Israel. And so trying to basically come out with a declarative explanation of exactly what's happening is just stupid.

So this is a really interesting thesis that is counteracting in my mind with the one I heard last night, which is pretty convincing as well.

Yeah, yeah, no, I mean, look, I get the whole China axis as well. That's why I think that it makes sense that you can reframe this,

that Iran is playing everybody against each other to get the maximum benefit and maximum revenge on all of the people who have come over over the years by keeping themselves in this position, kind of like Erdogan in Turkey.

That's how Erdogan plays nice with the... This literally popped into my head, so this is not a fully formed thing. But what have we said about Erdogan all these years, right?

he plays the Russians off of he plays nice with the Russians for a while then he plays nice with the Israelis for a while then he hates the Israelis and then he threatens Greece and then he sucks up to the Americans and then he tries to get money out of the Europeans and all of this stuff but in order to carve and effect an independent path and I used to describe this as a seven player game of Go and you know it's not black and white stones

but there's some purple stones and yellow stones and this one but Turkey they have a special power and their special powers they can pick up a black or a white stone whatever they want and put whichever one on the table they want right so they can you know play that game and you know and don't hate the play hate the game you know what I mean or respect the play and not you know in the game because that's and he plays it well right and if Iran was doing that

and if the Mullahs have been doing that because they think that's their only chance of survival fine but at the end of the day Again, a nuclear weapons strategy where they have enough 60% uranium, even if the IAEA report is overstating it in order to make the overwhelming case as to why this was okay for the Israelis to do this now.

It's still, you know, it's still, the numbers are just insane. And it's enough to make, you know, freaking 20 bombs. I'm like, 50 bombs. I'm like, no. Like, no. It's not acceptable. We cannot have these. It's like I don't want Kim Jong-un to have a nuclear bomb either. That's why I wanted Trump to go over there and do what needed to be done, which was to open up relations with them, and then John Bolton destroyed everything. John Bolton threw everybody under the bus in Hanoi, right? It is.

I want Trump and Iran to succeed. and everybody keeps saying, well, why can't Iran agree to civilian enrichment and Israel give up their nuclear weapons? I'm like, that's the solve. I'm like, I agree. How do you get the Israelis to that point after all this time where they've lived under this particular threat with these particular people at this moment in time? That's going to be a hard sell to the Israelis, and it's also going to be an incredibly hard sell to Netanyahu.

so while I can make the argument so then the question is as follows the negotiations real or kayfabe this is the case and this is where I get really angry because I can tell you that 75% of the people who are dragging me through the mud on Twitter and other places are saying the same thing Trump lied about the negotiations he was negotiating in bad faith he was just buying time for Israel Israel could have pulled this fucking thing off whatever the hell they want to,

the plans for this attack have been on the table for three years They have the drone factories they have the Mossad guys with the rocket launchers or whatever they used to knock out all the anti systems Like, Iran was defenseless when the planes showed up. That's the only thing.

I mean, if you strip out the players and you just look at it as, you know, a military operation, a combined arms, military, a combined theater, Sorry, multimodal That's the word I'm looking for Military and operation, you're like Wow It might be one of the greatest Things ever pulled off It's like that freaking Pager incident Where they wiped out most of Hezbollah With fucking cell phones And anybody who doesn't want to believe that these things happened Hezbollah stood down On Thursday

Iran put the call out to the axis of resistance and the actions of resistance didn't show up. Yeah. I mean, you bring up the beepers too, and I think that was when BB came to the White House and gave Trump a golden beeper. That's why I think stuff like that feeds into the narrative that Israel's controlling the U.S. I know it feeds into that. What the hell was that? But the reality is the following, okay? Netanyahu. I mean, Trump is pissed at Netanyahu.

for what he did over, for being the first one to run right up and congratulate Joe Biden for winning. Yeah. While Trump was still fighting for it, and that's a big tell that Netanyahu was always working for Davos or a city of London. Big tell. But then, you know, here's another way of looking at this. In the mob, and these people are all mob bosses, what's the one thing that's not tolerated?

betrayal you can run your little fiefdom as brutally as you want don't betray the family this is your lane this is your area, stay in your area yeah and that was Adam and John's sort of thesis last night Trump is finally like I just want to be done with this throw BB to the wolves or even better Putin's a mob boss Netanyahu's a mob boss Trump's a mob boss the Iranians are a mob boss and who never ever ever ever ever ever honors their agreements the British Iran no the British

the British they always do this or Davos they always do this with this hell what set up the Bolshevik revolution was their betrayal of the Turks at Gallipoli and they left the Australians to die Richard Poe's got an unbelievably well-researched article

on this and you look at it and you go and the downstream effects of that is that it's so weak and bizarre that it set up the Bolshevik revolution two years I'm like this is the way these people think. They don't act like men they fight like I hate to say it they fight like fucking women they stab you in the back with Iran what is the ultimate goal? is it regime change to put in people they want or they want the mullahs to stay?

I think the neocons and Davos want to have Israel create regime change in order to put their guy in to meet the new boss same as the old boss so that way even if Trump doesn't get involved they still get what they want you have to think this through, it's like a flowchart to these people, how do we get to where we need to go well there's multiple paths and this is how we get there if Netanyahu does not push for regime change that's a way that's a tell that he's not even working

for them anymore, that the betrayal argument actually fits all he has to do is knock out their nuclear weapons capability wipe out terminally weakened the irgc dismantle the axis of resistance and then walk away and let a terminally weakened iran from that perspective pick up the pieces putin monitors the rest of it everybody knows that israel can show up tomorrow if they start trying to lob missiles at anybody again got news for you we're gonna do the same fucking thing again

And they don't have to do anything more than that until the Iranian people finally decide for themselves who's actually going to lead them. Because the theocracy is not well liked. But that is true. That does not mean that they want the Shah to return, the grandson of the Shah. And what you'll hear out of the Iranian diaspora is that he's the dude.

Like, no, that Iranian diaspora is the same people that are working with the friggin city of London and the, you know, quote unquote, the Jews to effect regime change. So now play the game out. Trump is letting everybody hang themselves. And what did he say? Come back to the negotiating table. Come to me. So the other possibility. So was it kayfabe or was it real? The other side of that is that Trump negotiated a deal. It was a good deal. It was unacceptable to the Israelis.

It was also unacceptable to the city of London. And they said, nope, sorry, we're going. And Trump's like, okay, I'll defend you, but you better pull it off. Because Trump and Netanyahu can want Iran to not have a nuclear weapon for different reasons. Trump can just not want them to have nuclear weapons because he wants to denuclearize Middle East.

Netanyahu could want Iran not to have a nuclear weapon to secure Israel's future and to pave the way for his colonial masters to take the country over and break up the bricks and break up and create an Iran that could be used as a soft underbelly and pointed then at the Russians and break up the international north-south transport corridor and break up Belt and Road.

yeah and i think the other thing that we haven't touched on that is an important piece of context for everything going on right now is the the big meeting in the middle east only a month ago with the united states and that tour that went on in abu dhabi and the emirates and qatar and other parts of the region that everybody came out very confident and uh optimistic after that and less than a month later you have all this right well here how about this trump i thought trump

achieved more in getting everybody on board with a plan to rebuild the middle east not along sectarian fake conflicts that were set in motion by the british and the french with sykes-peacott and balfour decoration and world war ii and all this crap to bring everybody together and say, okay, let's fix all this. We're going to pull our guys out of Syria. The SDF Kurds have made a deal with HTS in Damascus. It's starting to happen.

The Saudis want to invest in the United States, the UAE, even trying to bring the Qataris in from the cold. And then everybody said Iran could be a great country again.

even Bibi Netanyahu and he never said that before in his statement on Thursday night last week I'm not cherry picking here I'm bringing it up for people to understand I don't have a good answer about Netanyahu I can I can give you the three five six seven faces of Benjamin Netanyahu and I can tell you that they're all maybe equally probable like I don't have a good read on the guy at this point in this moment what I'm trying to do is get everybody out of their one set

narrative that they've been that they've been fed and that even i used to believe i don't believe it anymore i'm now i'm now in a state of flux trying to figure it all out for real not based on what somebody wants me to believe okay and you know like where are we like you know we were there we had a trump achieved more in 10 days in the middle east than had been achieved in 10 years in terms of stitching the world together, back together with commerce and trade and peace and all the rest of it.

Honestly, one of the most powerful presidential speeches abroad in my lifetime. And something I've honestly, as a millennial who grew up with 9-11, the Middle East wars, financial crisis, him going there and saying, hey, we're not here to nation build and do this for you. You guys are completely competent and able to do it yourself. That is a form of like a combination of like humility and statesmanship that you want to see. Obviously, Trump is very brash and abrasive for a lot of people.

But I think you have to acknowledge that that was a very strong speech and the message that needed to be sent. Like, hey, like he wants to do deals. We want to do deals. You're completely competent to build up your own countries. Like I'm looking around what you guys have done yourselves. Like you don't need us. And I think that's what they exactly what they want to hear. It's just that mutual respect of we can do this, you guys can do your thing, and we can work together.

That's what you want to hear. I agree with you completely. I'm glad you brought it back up because I forgot all about it in all of this. I got focused on the deals. I forgot about what he actually said. And what you said, Marty, that's an unbelievably great client.

And it further underscores or undergirds most of what I'm saying, which some of which of course is contradictory because i'm putting out different versions of reality for you to pick one and slot all these bits and pieces into and then you decide for yourself which one is the best version of this we're going to find out in a couple of weeks because trump just set a new deadline you got two weeks to negotiate now come to the table because

look what if netanyahu wasn't lying that iran negotiates like zelensky in fact come to the table to make the same demands that they've always made, not actually agree to anything, drag everything out, drag everything out, drag everything out, and who negotiates like that? People who believe that their benefactors who are standing behind them have their back and they don't respect the other person on the other side of the negotiating table. Right?

That's how Zelensky is being, that's how Zelensky acts in Ukraine. He knows that NATO, and he's being told by NATO and Brussels and London, just wear them out. We're going to get rid of Trump. We're going to take care of him and then everything will be fine and then we're going to come in and we're going to help you push out the evil Russians. If you even believe that Zelensky is anything other than a puppet.

If you believe he's even, even if you believe he's an Ukrainian national, which I don't, but let's make the most generous read on him we can possibly come up with and then see if the facts fit that bullshit read, right? Like, no, he's clearly working with them And this is what their plan is. And they've cooked it up together. And they're executing their strategy, which is to do what they always do, which is to never negotiate.

First they steal shit from you, and then they negotiate for you to get your shit back from them. That's what they do. and from the Russians perspective and from a historical perspective everything east of the Dnieper is shit that the Russians actually should have always owned and they're not even willing to negotiate to give them back the shit that they stole after the Soviet Union fell because the borders of the Ukraine SSR Soviet Socialist Republic were created by Khrushchev in 1954. Okay?

Inside the federation that was the USSR, Ukraine plus Crimea was created by those borders were created by Khrushchev in the 50s. Or Stalin, one or the other. It was never a real version of the country. Historically speaking, if anything that is Ukraine, it's the area around Kiev.

and that's it the rest of this is evidenced by Crimeans identifying as Russians everything from Odessa to Sumy they're turning off is pretty much Russian everything around Kiev you could call Ukrainian everything around Lviv because I refuse to call it Lviv I refuse to Ukrainianify any of these things as far as I'm concerned Vladimir Zelensky because I don't even believe I'm so friggin over this whole Ukrainianification of the entire goddamn English language because I don't care.

That's another psyop. That's just me being a dick, by the way. It's Kiev. Yeah, it's Kiev, by the way. And it's Odessa with two S's. Okay? So, it's Lavov because it's Polish. It's Transcarpathia, which is Hungarian. I don't know the name of the area that's friggin' Romanian. There's very little of Ukraine that you could actually call Ukraine. And okay with the Russians not taking that over. I'm actually, if I'm Vladimir Putin, I don't want to take that over. Who the hell wants to be ruled?

Who the hell wants to rule those people? They hate us. But everything east of the Dnieper, like the Russians are just claiming their territory from their perspective. I'm not saying it's, you know, I'm not saying it's not going to be without conflict, and I'm certainly not saying that it's, you know, that the Russians aren't overstating their case. Everybody engages in propaganda. The Iranians do it. The Russians do it. The Israelis do it. The Dabojians do it. The Americans do it.

The British do it. Everybody does it. The best lies have a kernel of truth to them.

Yeah, and that's why I love talking about you, and this is something that anybody listening to this needs to realize, is you're being propagandized by every side, and it's trying to dissect the propaganda from each direction and figure out exactly what's going on. Moreover, their propaganda has different flavors.

Russian propaganda looks different than American propaganda, which looks different than British propaganda, which looks different than Chinese propaganda, which looks different than Iranian propaganda. They have different flavors to them. They use different techniques. They don't all use the same technique.

So this is why when people keep coming back to me, Iran's been trying to be two weeks away from a nuclear weapon for 30 years. I know. It's a stale talking point. Doesn't mean it's not true. Partially.

Today. Right now. Right, right now. Doesn't mean it's not true. Go look at the facts. Dexter White and I, you know, Dexter White tells me all the time when I start going off half cocky, he's like, dude, facts matter. So I'm going to, so then he spends all day like, you know, looking at all the facts that he can find, that he can trust.

that means not the AI generated facts that are out there not this fact you know then you gotta be looking at shit like he does like you know and the way he does

it and you're like yeah I have to become an expert in you know the circular air projection of the missiles that are being lobbed at each other and the this and the that and how big the payload is and what the range is and know all of that before you can even get it. It's funny. Well, like on the Iran, two weeks away from the nuclear war, everybody likes to call somebody, like, you're the boy who cried wolf. And they say it in the context of, like, nothing ever happens.

But, like, in the parable, the story of the boy who cried wolf, he eventually got eaten by a wolf. Like, it actually happened. Eventually the wolf actually attacks. And maybe that's where we are. Yeah.

And the parable is, you shouldn't cry wolf, And this is part of the reason why Netanyahu has outlived, may have outlived his usefulness to everyone, including to Trump. And then the question is, who's Zoom and who, who's using who, and who's using who how? And I don't have a perfect answer for that. I wish I did, even if I did have a perfect answer for it. Here's the truth. 75% of the people listening to my voice right now won't believe it anyway.

because when you've been propagandized too hard, it doesn't matter how many facts I put in front of you. You can't convince somebody who wants to believe something else with facts.

Yeah. Well, bringing this back to facts and based on everything we just discussed over the last hour and really drawing back from the beginning of the conversation with the inversion of the short-term rates and all the central banks lowering rates, do you think this is like a last-ditch effort by the Davos class to really just like send things into pure chaos in hopes that people get so discombobulated they sort of go the direction that they would like to push the world.

That's exactly what I think this is. I think I spent a lot of time with Martin Armstrong and Alex up in Calgary last month. and in my conversations with marty you know it became pretty obvious that we're reaching the end game where the europeans can continue to play their game of extend and pretend that they're not broke that their economies aren't

crushed that canada is going to continue to be one big beautiful country of, you know, maple syrup drinking, hockey playing, you know, sorry, you know, like, no, like the Canadian, every freaking Albertan that I talked to, and I talked to a lot of them were like, this place is done. When are we leaving? Okay. So, and I, you know, and, and I love them for it. And I love them for it because I also realize that they don't have any illusions left about what's happened to their country.

They know their country's fucked. We Americans still have holdout hope that our country isn't

terminally fucked. And they're in a much better place to do what needs to be done than we are. But here's the difference. The difference is America still has a lot to offer itself if it can just get out of its own way and get the traitors elements within it out. The system that we currently have may not survive, but America can survive. The idea of America

can still survive. And morph into something new, wiser, hopefully more humble, but the old system that we've all grown up under, that dollar hegemonic, you know, undead baby of the fucking British Empire, which is what we are, can go away.

you know this undead zombie running around like rambo without a goddamn jockstrap pissing everybody off and destroying brown people for freedom it's fucking it's fucking terrible none of us want that anymore nobody wants it we're all he wants it other than Other than Lindsey fucking Grant. Yeah. That motherfucker. It's like how people of South Carolina, I mean, it's probably not them. There may be some manipulation there, but.

Sure. Get that guy out of office. But, and like to your point too, first thing on the, on the conversation of U.S. versus America. I mean, your Florida Panthers just beat the, the Oilers again and the Stanley Cup. That may be an omen there in terms of dominance over Canada. I'm a little sad because I'm actually an Oilers fan at heart. I would like to see McDavid win one.

Yeah, I'm an Oilers fan at heart now, and I've watched them come close now twice, but Florida has better coaches and a better goaltending. There's a slightly better team, slightly better, not much. But, you know, you've got to learn to lose before you can win.

Yeah. A little divergent hockey talk there, but you can feel it. Like, there's a very clear, like, we're, like, reaching this precipice where you can see both paths. Like, we devolve into the sort of mismanaged globalist world that we've been living through my whole life, at least.

Or, like, you can feel the energy or people just want to go dud shit and move humanity forward. Like, I can feel it. I'm leveraging the tools. And it does feel like we're at that sort of that atomic point where it explodes and we figure out which way we're going.

I like to look at it when I do the chemistry argument. I like to look at it as we're getting up the energy cliff that we need to do. It's activation energy. No matter what happens in a chemical reaction, no matter how spontaneous it is or energetically favorable it is, there has to be a period of reorganization where we have this stable, we have this compound, we have that compound. But these two really do want to react with each other and form this compound.

But to get there, there has to be a reorganization. This is why Gibbs free energy is both enthalpy, internal energy, and entropy, internal disorder. It's a change in those things that determine whether delta G, change in free energy, is equal to delta H, change in enthalpy, minus temperature times the change in entropy. Delta G is equal to delta H minus T delta S. the entropy part of the equation, that's a gross macro statement about whether it's going to happen. Get to that process.

To get to the other side of the process, there's always a reorganization. Bonds have to be broken and reformed. And there's these transition states that happen where the old bonds have to break and then they reform into something new. There's an energy cost to get that happen. You've got to put energy into the system generally to get that reorganization. And what you're saying is we're right at the cliff of that where we hit the top of the activation energy curve and then we fall over.

And if it's a spontaneous thing, it'll go boom. Some reactions are really quick. Some. And then they go. and sometimes they start slowly but then the energy that they release fuels the reorganization that we've had we work so hard to get until it becomes a runaway train the best reaction i can

talk to about that is like the thermite reaction right iron rust plus aluminum metal creates a molten iron and aluminum oxide it's a very entropy driven reaction it has a huge activation energy But it's so exothermic on the back end that it becomes this, it's just like nuclear fission. Once it starts, then it goes, right?

And the catalyst to get that thing started, there's a number of ways of doing it. You can start it off quickly by using a magnesium stick and getting it started. Magnesium burning with oxygen is a huge amount of energy. You can also start it with sodium hydroxide. And you just pour some lye, a lye solution on it, and eventually there's enough energy there. And it takes a long time. And so you can pour it on there and then walk away.

And you can be in the next fucking county before the thing starts. You know, there's multiple ways of starting their reaction. And I think that one of the things that, you know, what Davos does is to thieve that activation energy to keep us from ever getting to that reorganization that we all desperately so want.

And this Iran-Israel perpetual war is one of those ways that we thieve all of our energy. because we spending all this energy and all this money and all this time and energy everything else making weapons to keep these two from fighting each other and all the diplomacy and all the aid and all the this and all the that And that's all freaking waste. It's all just tamping down the activation energy to create something new and better. wouldn't it be a wonderful world

if we can say, you know what, we don't need to use any of that stuff to make those weapons anymore, we can take all that technology that we use to fight this war that we don't need to fight and all that technology can now be used to build a better world, and I can have my flying cars and I can have my this and I can have my that and we can move on with a better life and you know and that's why we live in such a fallen world, that's why everything

that's why it's 2025 and it kind of every day we get up and it still looks like it's 1985 the only difference is like you know the graphics on the on the television screen are better because you know and um and you know the this the signs have been updated at the local fast food joint but we're still eating fat we're still eating crappy fast food are we're still driving the same streets we're still basically driving the same cars you know what i mean like nothing's changed like and you

gotta ask yourself where all that money go it went into serving all of these diverging these

divergences which keep us from being mission you know purpose built mission focused to make humanity better and you know i'm sorry but i look around the world and i say to myself whose M.O. is that and it's always the same people it's the ones with the colonialist mindset that they're going to take from everybody else for themselves and you know unfortunately America big sin was being subsumed into that model

by our British and European forebears and you know that's our sin so can we expiate our sin please and we're going to do that by ending this bullshit conflict between Israel and Iran do you think we can do it and like the other thing too like if you're running with your thesis at Dalvis and England behind this specifically like if you look domestically at England it's not looking great either like that's devolving there yeah it's no don't use the word

England my friend Ian Burlingame has to remind me

that you use the term British to describe the traitors to the to to english to english society and england is the thing that's been left behind what he very rightly points out is that look the english gave us the magna carta the english destroyed the monarchy and the feudal system we are the inheritors in america of english

of the gifts of the of of of the englishman who created all these things created that first technological level up like it's like the code of Hammurabi then the code Magna Carta then the constitution in terms of our influence on the evolution of of human organizational principles we learned a lot of stuff from the Native Americans we took what the what was in the

Magna Carta and from English society we melded it openly melded it with what we saw from the Native Americans and created the Constitution. And of course, the people who are still wedded to the old feudal belief systems that there should be an overclass of lords that has every right to rule over humanity, why wouldn't they be trying to do everything they can to destroy the one set of colonies that got away and created the system that repudiates their system at the philosophical

level. Why do you think they hate us so much, Marty? It's because of that. Because every day that America exists and proves their system is shit is another day that they can't rule the world. And we have the opportunity, they have to destroy America, the idea, not just America,

of the country. They have to prove to humanity that free markets don't work, that individualism doesn't work or some form of individualism, whatever that may be. And, you know, I used to be a hyper individualist. I'm not really sure what the fuck I am anymore. And, you know, I don't care. I'll figure out what I am on the other side of this crisis period. I still want to be that person, but I don't know that I can be that person. And, you know, and I think, you know, it's the same

thing that you know every time you and i have this conversation we get into like the the the philosophy of bitcoin and decentralization and all of these things i just i remind the older i get the more i want to caution people about being wedded to any one particular version of the future because you know as as humans we may not be ready for that what your version of the future as opposed to the one that's going to show up you know we may be wrong and what we want to do is we want to

define ourselves as to what we believe in as opposed to what we oppose and keep it and keep ourselves philosophically focused on our ethos what it is who we are because again going back to the greeks if you have an ethos then you have the ability to have a telos part of the problem that i think personally that the libertarians have had is that they've always defined themselves as to what they're not they're not keynesians they're not they're not collectivists they're not this

they are trying to say they believe in individualism but have they have they really defined that as okay though how do you build something from that how do you turn that philosophy into something that's real how do you turn that how do you make that statement that says i am this

and therefore because of this I am going to build that. I'm not against that idea. I think that is where, I think that's exactly what libertarians are trying, or libertarianism at its core is. That's where I went. And what I found, most libertarians don't believe in that. Most libertarians just have oppositional defiance disorder. And they don't know how to navigate the real world.

and that they're purely spiraling to saying i have to be this hyper individualist as opposed to being my goal is to minimize suffering not eliminate it minimize it yeah now to um to report about bitcoin and bitcoin i think that's actually something i'm very happy that is materialized in the last three to four years specifically it's like this idea is like you're Right. For the longest time, it was fuck the state and our capitalists.

Like, let's just go build something in parallel and people will adopt it. But I think with the attacks from the Biden administration, funnily enough, like the industry got to a point where it's like, hey, you may not care about political power, but it cares about you. And if you if you understand that, you got to pull your pants up, put your boots on and get in the war. because you've got to live in a world with a certain reality. You may think it's got to be this way, but it operates this way.

And with that in mind, engage.

Well, yeah. Again, it's exactly what I was saying about the Fed, about this. Again, I've always said the same thing. Keep your goal on the horizon. You don't have to achieve your goal by linearly moving in that direction. You can make alliances with other people.

I invoked Justin Raimondo trying to bring the real, true anti-war elements of American society to come together as a political force after 9-11 to counteract what the neocons were doing. And he failed miserably. He was right. Lou Rockwell was right. The whole of that group of people, they were completely right. And they couldn't do it. You want to know why? Because the Greens were never individuals. They were never anti-war. They were always fake anti-war. They were just commies.

and they're really just Trotskyites. And Trotskyites are the sect of communism that believes in perpetual war for perpetual revolution. Guess what? So were the neocons. And so the Greens and the neocons. So why do you think German Greens morphed into neocons on foreign policy? Because they always were war bombers. Maybe because they were always a construct of the city of London who was promulgating that, who were ceding that into the zeitgeist the entire time.

and when you go back over it and you start really going back over the history of all of these political movements since Comintern, you come to some very startling conclusions about how the IC fucked with

art and music and this and that and everything else the media, all of it in order and it's not just the Jews it's actually even worse than that it's actually everybody who just wants power and that the sad part is that modern communists don't realize that they're the useful idiots for the very people that they think they're trying to fight and the libertarians are purity spiraling into the same position and i'm just like i'm over it i don't care i'm not interested i want to win

well yeah it's not productive and you got to want to win you gotta whether you like it or not the

game exists the players are on the board and you got to operate within that system right and sometimes With that in mind Sometimes you might have to make a deal with a dragon in order to get to where you need to go which is what i told the mises institute back in october and i was laughing and i was i was running out of the room on a rail and called a clown and they refused to they refused to publish the speech so suck it tom deal or unzo i'm winning you're losing but that's okay have a nice day

well in that mind i'm winning like ultimately winning it seems i don't know if it's clear but many people are making out to be like the next this summer is critical in terms of how we thread the needle to get on the other side i agree i agree what are what are what are your thoughts are like ultimately what would be an ideal scenario or a progression of events between now and labor day um that would get us to the other side allow america to rip yeah so an ideal

progression of events is that's the easy one that's the one i i love that one i don't think we're going to get there, but that's the easy one. It's Iran comes to the table, makes a deal, and repudiates Davos, right? And then forces the Israelis to back down and go, okay, well, mission accomplished. You stopped it from getting a nuclear weapon. You're good to go. But oh, by the way, Israel, you now no longer have your casus belli. So you don't need to be pursuing things

the way you have in the past. You've been betrayed by your masters, or you tried to do their bidding, however you want to put it. We're going to kill those guys. We're in the process of killing those guys in the financial markets right now. We're going to start destroying them. We're going to see all the frameworks for a sovereign debt crisis to emerge in Europe, which is going to turn into a political crisis next year. This is the Martin Armstrong timeline. I think that's on the table.

The budget reconciliation, the big, beautiful budget reconciliation bill, passes through the Senate, basically back to the House for any small changes. It gets through. Trump no longer needs Congress, where he has a very thin majority. He's able to claim victory that, hey, we had a war. Everybody thought it was going to be a forever war. I got it done in two weeks.

And only a few people died, as opposed to hundreds of millions. And we're on the path to peace. And Putin agrees with that. Putin and the Russians do what they need to do in Ukraine. if Davos starts to collapse if Europe really starts to collapse and there's a run on the pound there's a run on the euro and all that stuff then Zelensky's support in Kiev will collapse he'll be killed and the Ukrainians will come to the table

and the Russians will negotiate a very uncomfortable peace and by the fall by Labor Day You know, the stock market will have to deal with a lot of churn and whatnot. But by Labor Day, Scott Bessent's out there rolling out. Scott Bessent and Bill Pulte are rolling Fannie and Freddie out of conservatorship, relisting them, doing all that work. And then we can start fixing the American housing market and everything else.

and the American middle class can monetize and extract their equity from their homes in order to really jumpstart the economy. Interest rates fall, Powell cuts to 3%, and Trump can start the golden age process. That's the optimal outcome. It's not going to be without a tick-ups. It's not going to be without a crisis. If there's a sovereign debt crisis in Europe and that starts to unwind, sure. Are we going to have banks fail in the United States?

Is the Fed going to have to come in and provide temporary liquidity and whatnot? As they're supposed to, as is their freaking job, whether you like it or not. It's not QE, zero hedge, get the fuck over yourself. Is the Fed doing their job? As opposed to all the shit that they used to do, where they were doing Davos' job. No. And we've already watched Mark Carney and others execute one of the most vicious financial attacks that I have seen in my lifetime. And it was over in four days.

What was that? So far, the tariff tantrum back in April. They were attacking the SOFR strip. They weren't doing like the basis trade that everybody was talking about. And I think I might have, my first version of this was that it was actually, they were attacking what's known as the SOFR strip, from six months out to three years. Basically, it's a basis trade in that. But they were attacking SOFR, the SOFR futures market. And within five days, it was over. Because they ran out of money.

I was actually on a podcast earlier today with a Canadian equitback. He was saying the Canadian government has something like $50 billion Canadian dollars on its balance. It has no reserves. It's sold off all its gold. They have $350 billion worth of U.S. Treasuries. That's all they have. Yeah. They have nothing. And they sold 14% of them in April. Now they're going to have to. And what was the net effect of this, Marty? This is the dumbest play imaginable.

The net effect was Trump still put the tariffs on. All these currencies went up by 10% to 15%. You know what that did? It just made the tariffs twice as expensive. And they didn't get the Fed to come in and have to go back to the zero bound. The Fed's still holding interest rates at 4.5%. It's as big a red-ass beatdown as what Israel put on Iran on Thursday. Well, that begs the question. I go back to what I said in the beginning about Trump and his positioning towards Powell. Is that K-Fob?

I think so.

I think Trump is setting up for a much different Federal Reserve chair next year when Powell's term ends. one of the things I was chatting with a guy earlier today, I did a shorter interview this morning with somebody or it said afternoon with someone I had never spoken to before. So we kept it short, not for any other reason that he knew I was really tired. I've done a lot of interviews this week and I put in like four straight 17-hour days and I'm fucking exhausted, man. I'm not going to lie.

But what came out of that to remind him, I said, look, if you look at Powell, Besant, and Trump, what do you hear out of the MAGA guys all the time? The kind of orange Jesus talk about, he didn't have to do this. He's put his family's honor on the line and all of his money and this, that, and he's sacrificing for his own country, right? And I'm not arguing that he didn't do that. He did do that. And I appreciate that he did that.

And I still appreciate that he's attempting to do the right thing, even if he makes some mistakes here and there. I'm on board. I'm loyal to Trump at this point because what else have I got? Scott Besson, you could argue very carefully. You can argue very easily. Scott Besson had billions of dollars. He could be sitting on his private island, you know, doing whatever he wants to do. He made all of his money in the world. He doesn't need to go do this.

He doesn't need to go walk into Washington, D.C. and run the Treasury Department to fix this mess that Janet Yellen created and change the country. No, he's decided to put his own personal, his retirement, this is part of his legacy. You can make the same argument about Jerome Powell. Daniel Demartino Booth absolutely did all through 2021 and 2022 saying Powell doesn't need this shit.

He'd go back to private equity and make billions of dollars if he wanted to.

knowing full well that that lael brainer would have taken over send this back to the zero bound i got news for you jerome powell could have made as much money as he absolutely wanted to more than you could ever imagine he could have wanted to if those those conditions existed and yet here he is slogging away as the fed chair getting getting shit from everybody the whipping boy the whipping boy for everyone and executing the most powerful needle thread in monetary history

they're all the same guy it's all the same story like focusing on pal too because you've handedly convinced me over the last two years having these conversations about what's going on at the fed like i've again and you've said it too like not a big fan in the federal reserve but if you're again working within the confines of a game set before you of course i think he's handling it pretty well and i'm just curious like was volker

hero when because everybody like everybody harkens back to volker as like the supreme example of the

fed chair that you want to be remembered as like was he liked at all when he was doing um what i would i would actually argue now understanding the game that i do now the way i do now that what Volcker did by creating, by setting, by doing what he did. He had to do it.

But by doing what he did, he actually gave us the LIBOR standard that nearly destroyed the country. Interesting. Because he raises interest rates into 1981. We get the nasty recession. By 1983, we're coming out of it.

1984, LIBOR is instantiated around the world as the debt indexing rate of the new dollar reserve system Then we get the G5 and the positive accord 1985 setting the currency bands and then they handed it off to Alan Greenspan who fucks everybody Now, was Volcker working for the U.S. at that point, or was he working for the group that was transferring power from the Bank of England by proxy to the Federal Reserve? That's a good question.

and so I'm not I'm not you know it's a good actually Marty it's a phenomenal question because I actually

hadn't considered Volker from that perspective that I just laid out for you until you asked the question because I'd never actually thought of Volker that way and I'm like oh right

it makes perfect sense that Volker then has to fix you know I had been saying I've said before I'm like In 1971, the dollar reserve standard was birth, but it didn't achieve maturity until after Volcker fixed everything.

Fixed all the excess of the Vietnam War and Bretton Woods. So it's a good question. I'm not saying it's true. You can argue with me about it. I'd be happy to have a classic argument. not a not a debate or a throwdown or any of the bullshit but an honest to God argument in the classical sense of the word argument without any negative connotations yeah we need more arguments so in the bitcoin space we have a lot of meetups they're called Socratic seminars we have a Socratic distillation

of current events which is excellent try to more Socrates more Socrates yeah yeah it's fascinating I mean for the last two conversations before this one very optimistic are you more worried now than you were last fall beginning of this year this is very dangerous where we are right now Trump could easily make a mistake he has deficits he has personality deficits that they're trying to use against him to get him to make an unforced error. Bombing Fordow is an unforced error.

Because Fordow, at this point, should be dismantled by ground troops. The place should be filled with cement is what we should do with it. But we shouldn't bomb it. Because you have no fallout. We don't need it. You have no fallout. Well, I don't think that... I'm not worried about... It's so far underground, I'm not worried about radiation or this or... I'm talking about making sure that it never comes back because all of those, we can't just bomb the front door.

And then we can then six months later, somebody goes in, pulls out all the rubble, grabs all the centrifuges and starts this thing all over again. No, this has to be a permanent solution. And I worry that Trump would use, you know, a bunch of bunk bunker busters and B2s to go in there and, you know, drop the Moabs and do the thing. And because he likes that because it's grandiose.

and it's a big gesture and it's a shock and awe. It's the same thing that Truman did when he dropped the bomb. It would be the same equivalent of the same mistake Truman made when he was convinced by the British to drop the atom bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, which are war crimes that we will never, ever, ever, as Americans, be able to live down. That was a mistake. It was unnecessary. It was unnecessary.

The Japanese wanted to surrender. They just needed the safe face. Because it's an Asian culture. And Truman made a huge mistake. So I'm hoping that Trump doesn't make that mistake. I am absolutely hoping for it. I would rather commit troops on the ground as an American to helping the Israelis wipe out Fordow to then bring in the B2s. It's just that simple.

I mean, and I say that with all the requisite reservations. That's how much I do not want Iran to have the ability to spin up a nuclear weapon for all the things that I've talked about tonight because of all the fungibility and all the levers of all the fulcrum of power that that enables that I just, you know, all the things I talked about in this podcast, that thing, that as a project is too much. I don't want Israel to get away either.

I'm hoping that the reports I saw that Iran bombed Demona are true. I don't want the Israelis to have this as well. I don't want them. I want India and Pakistan to sign the NPT. I want, if Israel isn't, didn't, if Iran didn't get them on, I want Israel to sign a goddamn MPT.

Like, one of the things that people forget about all of this is that nuclear weapons are really expensive to maintain. The warheads degrade because of the uranium half-life, the hydrogen embrittlement of all the, and the neutron embrittlement of all the casings. All that stuff is, there are very specific maintenance schedule and refresh schedule. and you know you have to you have to wonder just how much money that costs israel which is a very

small country right how much it's costing pakistan who's paying for all that are we paying for it are we paying for pakistan's nuclear arsenal is india are we paying for india's are we paying for you know are we paying for israel what if trump says i'm not paying for any of that anymore And then all those nuclear programs just degrade as a matter of depreciation. With the half-life of uranium-238. You know this better than I, but can you turn weapons-grade uranium into energy?

Yes. Yes, absolutely.

So the reason why the Iranian market was so suppressed for years was because the Russians were good as their word and that they dismantled hundreds and hundreds of nuclear bombs. The ones they got from Ukraine, they dismantled. They were then mixed down. That fuel was then mixed down, turned into what are called single work units. that's how nuclear energy is you know it's how it's that's that's the unit they use

the normal is the normalized yes so you mix it down and then you send it off as nuclear fuel so there was this huge stockpile of uranium that was had to be sold off that lasted until around 2018 because the russians have run out of stuff to to mix down you know me you know me i'm always going to tie it back to bitcoin bitcoin ties into denuclearization shout out to elaine al who wrote

this blog post like seven years ago now at this point the way you guarantee denuclearization is you degrade it to energy an energy use case and then you plug in bitcoin miners and you prove via the bitcoin mining hash rate going up that you are denuclearizing in real time and you prove it yeah yeah yeah and you prove it that's yeah that's beautiful dude it's it's it's excellent

and you store and and each country begins to accumulate bitcoin yeah yeah i mean everything else we're accumulating bitcoin we're doing the thing where we're we're turning we're turning all of this we're turning all of this wasted energy this stuff i talked about earlier this wasted crap and we turn that waste into something, into tokenized money that we can use and then we can use it to build beautiful things

with. We can use it to rebuild society and civilization as opposed to the feral state that we've been reduced to by these fucking assholes.

I think we just solved the world's problems there. Hopefully we get this in the hands of Trump. While I was thinking too, I can't

wait for the day. I know it's going to happen. I'm going to manifest this for you when Jerome Powell is finally relieved from his duties at the Federal Reserve you two sit down have a cigar and talk about everything I'm uh I'm envisioning and manifesting that in my head because I just want to talk to you off the record to learn about that conversation so the funny part about that is uh I will invoke the Grant Morrison and tell you to do your chaos

magic and draw and write that out as a sigil and then you know set it out into the world yeah we're gonna do that now i'm uh i can hear my wife is in our third trimester uh banging on the door saying it's time for dinner so absolutely congratulations marty i hope that we don't if we don't speak in between now and the time when your next child is born two ten eleven eyes fingers toes like the old adams family joke right so

the uh it's always a pleasure sir it's always a great way to end the week and And hopefully we can do it again by the end of the summer. Hopefully things have gotten better, more clarity. But thank you for spending the end of your week with me, sir. I appreciate it. Thank you for the opportunity, as always. Enjoy. All right. Peace and love, freaks.