Presenting sponsor for today's program is Builders. Our supporting sponsors are Texas Matters and Texas State Technical College.
Hello, and welcome to the Texas Tribune Trip Cast for Wednesday, May twenty seventh. I am your host, Matthew Watkins, joined as usual by my co host Eleanor Klibanoff.
Hello, Eleanor, Hello Matthew.
How are you.
I am feeling very well rested.
Alarmingly well rested for the day after an election. Yeah.
We of course usually have very late nights on election night, but sometimes the races are so you know, much blowouts that we can all go to bed and go home by ten eleven o'clock.
And that is where we are today.
Yeah.
I was home by and in bed by midnight, which is amazing. I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing.
Amazing. We'll bring we'll bring the energy today to make up for that. Joined this week to recap the Texas primary runoffs by our Washington correspondent Gabby Beerenbaum.
Hello, Gabby, Hello, Hello, thanks for having me and.
You know him, you love him?
From Spectrum News and from formerly of the Trip Cast, James Badergan, Hello James.
Hello, it's good to be back.
Came crawling back.
Away.
We invited him.
Right.
So, of course, as we already mentioned, it was not a late night. The reason it was not a late night for many of us was because at the very top of the ticket, Ken Paxton, our Attorney General, trounced John Cornyn, the incumbent US Senator. Last I looked, we're at i think around ninety nine percent of the vote's cast, so it could switch, you know, go up or down a percentage pointer or so. Paxton receiving sixty four percent of the vote, Cornyn receiving thirty six percent. Gabby, you
have been following this race closely. Were you surprised?
I wasn't surprised that Paxton. I was surprised by the margin. I think people read into the early voting tea leaves, I guess myself included it seemed like the urban counties were turning out at a high rate than the others, that that might be good for Cornyn. But I think clearly persuasion mattered a ton. Over the course of the runoff and over the course of those almost three months, I think it was clear that the people who came back were more Paxton friendly that undecided people broke Paxton,
Wesley Hunt voters book broke packs at all. Sort of was coming up Paxton last night.
What happened, James, I don't know.
I'm with Gabby in that I think I thought that Ken Paxton was still going to win, But I was also sort of swayed by all this conversation that the early vote was trending well for Cornyn. But I mean, I think at the end of the day, anything that was going to be close, if it was going to be close, got switched by the President's endorsement last Tuesday,
with a lot of early voting still to go. And I think what we really learned last night obviously is that it's the President's party because in multiple races where he endorsed, his candidates won, and they didn't win Squeakers like they won by a long shot, even in some races where there were other major endorsements. So I think that's obviously what did it. But you know, you've got to also give the flowers to Ken Paxton. He was
spent outspent. I think I read in your story Gabby nine to one in the in the primary, three to one in the runoff and this guy keeps winning. I mean, he's just so tapped into the grassroots, he's so tapped into the base that you do kind of have to give it up for him. I'm sure we'll get to this and it's going to be a different discussion in November. But sixty four percent, I mean, what else can you say?
Yeah, I mean, I think like it's so clear that Trump endorsement. I think there was, you know, any last hope maybe that the Corning camp had was you know, well maybe the timing of the Trump endorsement, certainly if it had come much earlier, came in the middle of early voting. It's a weird election time. The day after
and it proves like it doesn't matter. And I do think we were discussing this earlier, like it raises the question of were their corn In voters who maybe just stayed home feeling like this is like, you know, definitely what's going to happen, Like it's not even sort of worth getting out to the polls, and does that impact races lower down?
I don't think there were Corning voters that stayed home. I think they just got rocked. I mean, I think that's what happened. I mean, because Cornin is very, very good at getting out the vote. I mean, that's what I mean. We saw that in March for the primary. He surprised everyone. I think it was a tall order to ask him to do it twice. But I don't think that Cornin voters stayed home. I think the Paxton base, the Paxton patriots as he calls them, came out, and
people who are motivated by the President came out. And that is just where the Republican Party in Texas is, as you guys have well covered.
I also think it increasingly looks like, given the margin, Trump's endorsement I think wasn't necessarily to get Packson over the line. I think it more looks like the White House saw internal data that showed that Paxson was going to win, and the President likes a winner. I mean, that's always been his mo. And I'm not the only one who thinks that. Ted Cruz said that last night too, that he feels like they must have had looked at
some data and thought, Okay, this guy's winning. Let's let's be a part of it, right.
I mean, inevitably, some corn And voters, you know, or people that Corny was hoping to convince did not come out for him, right, I mean some of them swung over to and certainly some of these Wesley Hunt voters swung over. But like, I do think there was this I mean, Cornin was saying like if you didn't vote in the primary, like get out now it Certainly I think he was hoping to convince sort of this moshi middle of people who were like, Oh, I don't really
think Ken Paxson was really a thread. Maybe I'll go And I don't think that group really if they exist, they're not as motivated as Cornan was hoping.
No, I think the early voters were like eighty five percent or something people who voted in March. So he just did not get a lot of people out who hadn't participated in March, let alone like Warren consistent primary voters.
Two point two million million voters in March in the Republican primary as of most recent count. It'll go up a little bit one point four million in May. That you know, if you have, by the way, eighteen point seven million registered voters in Texas, so seven point four percent turnout, it'll maybe go up to seven point five as those last votes are counted.
Not great for Texas.
You know, we know that these runoffs are really important in a state that's been voting Republican for the last you know, more than two decades. But this is how it goes, right, We if you've covered politics in Texas long enough, you know that it's going to be a tiny, tiny fraction, especially when you get into the runoff, that's going to decide these races. And most often that tiny tiny fraction is going to be the most activist wing
of the party. And I think we've known all along that the most activist wing of the party likes Kin.
Paxton here, and I think it's this arm of the party that, like, you know, since Ted Cruz beat David Hurst, you know, a dozen years ago, it's like, has continued to portray itself as like the underdog and the insurgents and certainly not the establishment, sort of the opposite of the establishment. But they have been consistently winning, consistently claiming more and more parts of the party. I mean, there's been some ups and down, certainly, but like they are increasingly.
We've talked about this on the podcast a lot, Like at what point do you start saying like the party, the group, the arm of the party that's been in charge the longest, you know, for the last twelve years, is the establishment.
Yeah, I mean I would argue that the takeover began, you know, pick your date, whether it's twenty twelve or even a little bit earlier than that. But let's say it started in twenty twelve. You know, at that time, John Cornyn was our senator. Kay Bailey Hutchinson was our other senator. Ted Cruz going up against David duh Hurst, who you might term a bit of a more traditional, you know, a wealthy guy criticized on the right as
being too moderate. He wins or comes out of the March primary as the front runner against Ted Cruz, winning by nine or leading by nine percent but failing to get the majority. Cruise outspins him three to one in the runoff, I mean, sorry, Dehurst, who is personally wealthy, outspends Cruise three to one on the runoff. Cruz ends up winning by fourteen percent. Now we have Cruise and Packson as our well, we'll see about that.
Jumping the gun.
Whoa, whoa, whoa. You know we have Cruises.
I got the rest of the podcast here buddy.
We Cruise as our senator. We have Paxton as the nominee.
We have.
Abbott, who has really moved toward that wing of the party. We have Dan Patrick the legion and governor. The establishment is no longer the established anymore. This is the establishment in Texas. And I would argue that this was the culmination of that. This is the end. It has been fully completed now that that wing of the party runs the Republican Party in Texas. I mean, we can go down the ballot and talk about a little bit more, but let's not do that yet.
We'll hold Okay, So.
Let's just pause for a minute and reflect on the survivability of kN Paxton to peel back the curtain a little bit. In the journalistic process, right, we have something that we had the Tribune call the political obit, right, and we write it when we feel like a politician's career could be at risk of coming to an end.
And we wrote a political obit for Ken Paxton in twenty twenty three when he was impeached and it hit his future went to the Senate and we didn't know when that vote came out whether he was going to remain in office.
Or not.
We dusted it off and rewrote it. After the March primary when Donald Trump said that he was going to endorse someone in that race and insists that the other person drop out, and many people reading the tea leaves made the assumption that he was going to endorse John Cornyn and ask Ken Paxton to drop out. We didn't use it. We had one ready to go last night. We were pretty sure we weren't going to need it,
but it was there. You know, people have been writing the political obituary of Ken Paxton for a long time. We are leaving out, you know, the when his lieutenants you know, accused him of bribery and all resigned in mass We left out when he was indicted on a on a you know, criminal charge. He continues to win, He continues to remain in this powerful position, and you know, might now be one of the standard bears for the
party in Texas. James, you have been around, You may have been the person who pre wrote that twenty twenty three potential political obit How does he keep doing this? How does he keep surviving?
Well, I think that Eleanor and I were talking about this before the podcast, when we're just kind of chit chatting. But there's this question about all of his legal troubles, his personal troubles, and I think I saw and someone's reporting that they likened his affairs and legal scandals to
the president. And in a certain way you're talking about, you know, the Tea Party wave that started the shift from the Republican Party to this Texas I think started a lot of that, And there's all this this chicken and the egg question about the president and the role that he plays in this. But Ken Paxton rode that wave early, and I think he was on it before the president was, and so I think he is so
tapped into Republican base voters. You know, in our reporter who was covering this for for Capital tonight on Spectrum News, she was talking to people and they were saying, like, we're voting for a politician, not a preacher, So we like the things that he does. In my reporting on Camp Paxton, for you guys, they would say, we don't care about his like moral qualms. He is doing the things that we like on abortion, on the border, on
suing a big pharma. We've seen those kind of successes, and so people like his policies he goes where the base is going. Or yeah, he goes where the base is going. So I think that's why he has remained so popular with that base. I mean, he's just doing what they want him to do. Yeah.
State Representative Shelley Luther said to The New York Times, you know, I'm picking a senator, not a husband, which is I think kind of sums up where a lot of people are. You know, they want someone who you know is going where the base is going and in some cases going you know, pushing that last little bit further that you know, other politicians aren't willing to push on these social issues.
And I feel like the word I hear a lot is fighter, which is interesting because that's something really going on on the Democratic side. People are looking for these fighters, and they want change agents, and that's Ben Paxton's brand from the jump, and so I think that's when you talk to people, that's what speaks out about him. And he also has this populous streak. He just suited Lululemon, right, I mean, it's not the most traditional like business conservative
at all. So I think that's part of the appeal to the.
Fighter thing, especially because he just has not given an inch. I mean throughout the felony fraud charges, throughout the FBI accusations about impropriety and office, throughout the allegations of affairs, he has just not given an inch. He's just like pushed through it. Never really said sorry for any and never said, hey, I embarrassed my family or I embarrassed the voters, and you know, I promise to do better in the future. I embarrass my staff, Like he's not
the state six six million dollars, Yes, impeachment put us through. Impeachment, We'll put him through. I can see why he doesn't say sorry for that. But you know, he just has dug in. And I think right now our politics is like the president. The president digs in, he's not going to give an inch. Ken Paxton doesn't give an inch. And that is, you know, to what Gabby was saying. That's what's so appealing to him for republic voters.
For Republican voters, is the key message here, right. I mean, people compare him to Trump a lot due to the you know, legal history and some of the other criticisms that are laid against him that y'all just laid out. I mean, the big difference to me as someone just observing him.
Is the.
Charisma factor, right, Like Trump has this magnetism. You watch him, whether you love him or despise him. He's hard to look away from. You know, I watched Paxston's speech last night, and he I don't think he has that right, Like he was very clearly reading right like it was not this like you know, rile up the crowd, get everyone going type of thing that Trump does. It is, like
you said, the fighter. But I guess the question that we're now going to ask is does that translate to the general election, because it's going to be a challenging general election for Republicans in Texas. So Gabby get Us started on previewing this race. What are we watching now?
Yeah, I think the key is going to be we know that he appeals right to this Republican base electorate, and that's important if you can just you know, get the Republican base excited. That's kind of how Ted Cruz won in eighteen, right, was ginning up turnout in those heavily Republican areas to counteract the high democratic turnout. What's going to be interesting is does he appeal to independence?
And he's obviously I think it's important to notepacks and write one statewide three times before, so he's not new to this. This is going to be by far the best funded, most you know, national interest in a campaign he's ever had. Democrats in DC are going to be closely watching, Republicans in DC are going to be closely watching. But I think, you know, last night he did sort of start to articulate a more affirmative vision if I think what he's going to offer on the campaign trail.
You know, he did his his bid about tall Ico nicknames and all that. I mean, that was sort of the initial pivot right to the general. But he did say last night, you know, I want to earn your vote for people who are struggling to afford you know, their premium page, men struggling to afford housing. You know, I've taken on big pharma, like you mentioned, I've taken on big food. I'll take on big tech.
You know.
So there is sort of like a populist affirmative vision in addition to I'm going to pass the Trump Agenda and you know, just hammering on tall Rico. And I think it's going to be interesting how much he tries to stick to that versus more of the you know what we've seen out of the primary and in the runoff sort of bashing on the establishment.
James.
It is true he has won multiple general elections in Texas. It is also true that he has never gone up against someone in a race where he is the top billing at the ticket and where he's going up against someone who has is going to have a lot a lot of money to spend. Bringing up all these things in his past, you know, the Attorney General of Texas is a very high profile job to us, and those races are very high profile. They might be less so
than to your average general election voter. What do you think, what's it like? How much should he be worried about that?
About being at the top of the ticket, being the guy yeah.
And being sort of having the full spotlight on him.
No, I think he likes it. I think he enjoys it. I think he wants to be the guy. I mean, you would you don't run for you a senate because you want to shrink into yourself, right, I mean he wants to be the guy. I think in his head he believes he's been the guy. He believes that he's been the true Mago warrior. I don't think he would say this, but I think he probably believes it that he's more of a Mago warrior than some of the other statewides right, and the President has said that, he
called him a true Mago warrior in his endorsement. So I don't think that Ken Paxton is going to shrink away from being the guy at the top of the ticket. I think to Gaby's point, he's a fighter. He's ready for that fight. He's already trying out these nicknames. I do think he's similar to the President in that he yes, he's a little awkward, he stumbles, he's clearly reading off a prompter. But you know what, voters don't really care. I mean, the President has proven that, Ken Paxton has
proven that. I don't think they. I don't think the voters really care. They care are you fighting for their issues and are you get it done? And so far Texas voters have said he's getting it done. So I don't think he's going to shy away from being the guy. I don't think he's going to shy away from his
conservative viewpoints and his conservative standpoints. I think that's where the issue is going to be Can James tall Rico do anything to win over those corn end voters, to win over those those moderate Republicans I guess, to win over independence because we think about these mythical independence out there in Texas and who are these mythical independence? These mythical independence are I'm sorry to say this, but they're more conservative than they are liberal, and so how does
Tallarico win over those Independence? Is going to be interesting because he can he win over those can? I just I've been talking basketball a lot, and I think if you're a Republican voter, or if you're like one of these conservative independents, it's like me, I, as we have discussed on this podcast, A diehard Los Angeles Sakers fan. I love the Lakers. The Spurs are in the playoffs right now. I obviously have beef with the Spurs because
we're Western Conference rivals. My friends here, I've lived here more than ten years. My friends are all San Antonio Spurs fans. I want to be happy for my friends. But am I going to root for the Spurs? No, Like, I'm not gonna. And that's that's what party affiliation is like. If you're a Republican You're not going to easily go
vote for James Tallerico. If you're you consider yourself a conservative person, you're not going to easily go vote taller Ico's got to do something to appeal to them, or say, like this guy Ken Paxton is so bad that you've got to vote for me, and that argument has already been made. I just don't see how any more taller Rico does that except by bringing out new voters, those kind of corner voters that you were talking about Eleanor that like don't usually vote, don't get out there, Like
that's what they've got to do. And I think it's it's a much taller order than I think we're giving credit for it.
What if Talerico pulls up from three from the logo and hits.
Up that's yes, yes, and that kind of converted me to the space and those Gabby are down ballot races.
So the general election has begun. Both campaigns releasing their first general election ads this morning. Let's talk about Paxson's first, both of them not using the candidate's voice, but letting either their opponent or the news media talk for them. The first you hear of Tallerico and Paxson's ad is he's wearing a mask from the diis of a House committee room and he's saying there are more than two biological sexes.
In fact, there are six.
And then they're you know, they basically say, you know, this is Texas, this is not and James Talerico is the not in that list.
We're going to see a lot of this.
We're great for tell Rico. I'll be honest, right, Like, I think that there's a lot of stuff that they have already started teeing up that I think will really stick with voters. Like I think that there are I mean, I think that there are six genders. The God is non binary. You know we were saying this before, Like you can get into a real theological argument to explain
why you believe God is non binary. And by the time you are explaining that you are have lost the election, Like people have walked off that you are talking to. And it's not that you know you're inherently wrong, it's that God is non binary is going to stick in the head of a lot of voters.
It just sounds funny to people. It just sounds.
Like it memorable.
It's memorable.
It sounds like the worst thing people imagine about Democrats.
And you send your kid off to college and then they come back all woe.
You have to sit there listen to them saying God's non binary again, like there's nuance in all of this. And I think James Talerico will have a we'll have the work of either explaining all of that or just like doing the Paxton and just muscling through and presenting his own vision of you know, forget forget about that. What he's doing is so much worse.
I mean, this was the Ted Cruz versus Colin all Red playbook, right, the focusing on you know, gender issues, calling your opponent woke for all read, it was women's sports and and you know it was like, right, like a clip.
Of it was like a football play looked like all Red tackling a little girl and he got crushed in that election.
It was a very different time. But I think the big question is.
It's not that different. It was like two years ago, well.
Right, there was Trump on the ticket. You know, It's like, yeah, it was.
A very different climate for Republicans, right. I think I think Republicans two years ago, when Texas had the wind at their back. They might still have the wind of their back structurally, but you know, there are a lot of reasons. Whether it's the economy, whether it's because the midterm elections tend to not go as well for the party that holds the White House. You know, we'll see and do people want to talk about things like that when you know gas prices are over four dollars or
all those other things. That's the big question.
I think people will. I think people will, and they will because the Republicans want to talk about it. It's all about messaging, messaging, messaging, and the Republicans are good at messaging. Notice we weren't talking about immigration or border security to this selection cycle. We were talking about the
Sharia law. Whether or not that is a big issue here in Texas, that is actually something at the forefront or it's an imagined fear that people have, but the Republican messaging on it got people out to the polls, It got people really really engaged. This is the same thing. People underestimate how strong of a motivating factor fear is. And the interesting thing for me is how tall Rico
responds to it. You can see from his messaging already starting last night that they are going to be much more aggressive than say beadl Urke was in twenty eighteen against Ted Cruz. I mean they put out the mugshot. They said, this is who this guy is. He's been indicted, he's cheated on his wife, blah blah blah. He's going at him again though those things have already been said. And so what else does tall Rico have, Like what
other messaging does he have? And how does he counteract this stuff about like God is non binary, there's six genders because and especially with like transgender kids in sports, that's a tough issue for people like I mean, if you talk to parents, it is a tough And that's what Colin already got crushed on. James Talerico voted against that bill, and so and Paxson's already pushing on that.
So how does he respond? And it's to the point that Eleanor was making, It's like, I'm an Austin state representative. I voted my district and now I'm going to look forward and we're going to look at the bigger picture here, Like how does he respond to that? I'm curious to see what he actually does.
I do think two things are true, though I think culture war definitely that stuff definitely worked in twenty twenty four. But I do still think the economy, right was the biggest issue for voters and still is the biggest issue for voters. And this is now a republican economy rather than a democratic economy, even if a lot of the fundamentals remain the same, right, So that's going to be part of it.
A but B.
I think what's interesting is that it's not sort of culture war traditionally, but tall Rico talks about a sort of culture of corruption, and that's almost his cultural message, and paston being the nominee fits pretty easily within what he's already saying about. The divide isn't left right, it's top bottom and you have corrupt politicians. And he's already
sort of made that pivot. And so if I think tal Rico's goal is going to be to sort of fold culture into the economic situation that people are already feeling, Paxton's goal is going to be look at this Austin liberal. Yeah, like you're saying, I mean, this guy's not Texas values, and so in an economy where people are, you know, consistently expressing frustration and where Republicans are now in charge. I think we'll see the extent to which Culture Wars
still plays. I think it still plays, but not as much as twenty.
You saw Paxton talk start talking about the economy last night, which is.
Champion.
What I care about is rent prices, and you're like, this is new, Okay. Yeah.
I will add that those ads against already have taken on somewhat of a mythical status in the past two years. It is also true that already outpaced Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket by what four to six percentage?
Kamala Harris is the California Senator. Yeah, no kidding.
I was gonna say, like, I do think to your point about like Ken Paxton's charisma, right is like I think that Ken Paxton, I assume his backers are assuming that they can put together a thing where I mean, I've seen him talk to Republican groups and like to a friendly audience. He's pretty good. Like he can like paint this very compelling fear vision, like you said, about these issues he cares about. And then I bet we don't hear from Ken Paxton directly.
Guys, just Ken Paxton come in a trip fest, just announce it right now. God, I.
No, but like I think like we're going to hear Ken Paxton is going to be putting James Talerico's voice out there, and James Talerico is gonna be putting Ken Paxton's voice out there, and it's just going to be like, you know, sort of each running on the other's words.
And for Republicans, if you can't get your voters excited about a positive vision, and that's always hard in a midterm year when you're a party controls the White House. Can you get them excited about beating the other guy? Can you get them sort of negatively polarized to say, Okay, you know, we just can't have that guy. And I think that's clearly what they're going to be pushing.
My favorite development last night was you saw a lot of people calling Tallerico a vegan, right to the extent.
That it's vagan actually yes, to the.
Extent that Tolrigo has like had to put out like a picture of him eating a turkey leg. You know, like this is the like the defensive response that we have here, but also.
Everyone saying like he's a vegan because he ordered a potato, egg and cheese taco, which speaks the fact I don't think people know what vegan is.
It's also but.
Also there, I mean, there was in this ad that they put out this morning, they have him talking about how he his like campaign is going meatless and how he's you know, like there's some things there that I mean, of course, yeah, I don't want to I'm you know, I will defend the potato, egg and cheese taco, you know, and just like a great breakfast talker orders you know. But but but this is what it's going to be, you know, the he's he's he's woke and he's weird.
That is the messaging.
Pallas So I was joking about the tripst thing. But like taller Rico is, tall Rico is going on all the podcasts, He's going on Joe Rogan, tall Rico went on Fox News before. I'm sure he probably will try to go again. Ken Paxton as of now, is not regularly showing up on CNN, He's not regularly showing up on MSNBC. He's not showing up on these quote unquote
legacy or mainstream outlets. If we start seeing him show up on those Outslet's I think that tells us something like, Okay, there is some kind of hesitation about how comfortable his
numbers are. But as of now, if he's not showing up on those, I'm I'm still thinking that they feel pretty confident that the Republican voter base in Texas, which is larger than the Democratic base, we have to we have to say that's just the reality until until he starts showing up on those things, Like I don't really think like it is like a full on race, and if he starts showing up on them, I am curious to see, like how good is he going to because
as you said, he's he's a little bit awkward. He hasn't been battle tested in uh competitive races like other statewides have, so that will be interesting for me.
So tell Rico's ad, of course, was a bunch of news reports about the Paxson impeachment and the various allegations against him, including you know, some commentary from some Fox News folks, you know, also Tall Rico's voice owning there, And I mean, I think what we're seeing is that this race is going to be negative, right, It's going to be brutal. I think on both sides going after each other and they're going to spend a lot of energy trying to, you know, tear the other person down.
Is funny.
Someone put on Twitter last night before the votes were counted some of the old campaign ads from the two thousand and two Senate election, Cornin's first one, and it was just like I was like bowled over at how quaint they were. You know, Cornin's like talking about his work, you know, for enforcing child support in the AG's office and like suing you know, big medical companies to give
seniors access. Ron Kirk is up there talking about how Dallas is considered by many the most conservative city in Texas, and he brought people together, and I just, you know, I don't think that's going to be the tone we're going to be seen from these these candidates in the
general this time around. Let's I want to talk about some of the other races, but we got to talk about corn In a little bit too, right, A very long you know, that was twenty twenty and two, twenty four years ago, A long career, and it seems as though Gabby the Republican Party kind of passed him by right.
It's yeah.
I mean I think I wrote my story yesterday. He you know, came to Washington in the Bush era, He survived the Tea Party, he survived the first Trump era, and not just survived, I mean he was the Senate Republican whip during Trump's first term when a lot of his contemporaries, these sort of elder statesman types retired because they didn't want to be a part of it anymore. And what he couldn't survive, right was Ken Paxton. And so it's just sort of an interesting end for someone
who had never lost an election. Was really well respected in Washington because a you know, he was someone who could talk to everyone in the Senate. He could talk to Democrats, he could you know, sort of look for areas of biparties, an interesting common ground and be He was like a very loyal Republican. He was a conservative guy. He chaired the NRSC At one point, he raised I
think over four hundred million his contemporaries. That's the easiest way to make friends in your conference, right, just raised a bunch of money for them. So he had a lot of friends, and you saw a lot of disappointment when that Trump endorsement came down, and I think you will see when the Senate comes back next week continue
disappointment you even saw. I mean the Senate went home rather than past their reconciliation bill that's you know, very easily approved along party lines because of differences with the White House over this January Safe Weaponization fund and over the ballroom. And I think they were the Senate was much more poised to just say we'll deal with this later because they were frustrated at the White House and
endorsing against Cornyn was one of the main reasons. He's their guy, and it's you know, yeah, it just shows that how much the party has changed in the era in which he has been powerful in a party that you know, he'll be the first to say he helped build.
It feels like it's this is another piece of evidence that if people don't feel if you're if people in that activist wing of the Republican Party don't feel in their heart that you're one of them, it's really hard to convince them that you are. And you know, Corny's been working against that for you know, a decade now, and I.
Do think it just affirms I think what we've known and the is the pathron, which is that like any compromise with the other party is a problem, and I
think we're seeing that, particularly from Republicans. I think you hear that though on both sides of like, you know, the political obituary we did run for Cornin's career, you know, starts with the fact that he managed to after the Uvulde shooting, helped negotiate one of like the first meaningful gun reform bills in eons, and he was greeted for what you know, really is like like a landmark victory of his time in the Senate by being booed for
several minutes at the Texas GOP conference because he was just like, you know, even though it was a measure that the majority of you know, Americans agreed on, was just seen as like, how dare you work with the Democrats to try to get something on gun control?
So it's hard to it's hard to fake it. And in politics, it's about authenticity, and it's what you're saying, Matthew like he had a hard time telling the base that he was one of them because he's not one of them. He is a two thousand and two George W. Bush compassionate conservativesm Republican.
A deal maker and a compromiser, yes.
But that's also to say it's like when people were saying that Dustin Burrows is a liberal. These guys are not liberals in any way. They are very rock hard conservatives, but they are not They're not going to bend the knee every single time to Trump. And that was the issue. You know, the President said it in his endorsement. Ken Paxton is a true MAGA warrior. He's been loyal to me.
John Cornyn is a good man, but he was not with me when times were tough, and that is his I think mortal or original sin because he wasn't with Trump.
No matter how many photos you post reading the art of the deal, it's hard to come back from that.
It's also like, what's your metric for success? Like for senators like Cornan, it's did I pass legislation? Did I influence this bill behind the scenes to make sure you know Texas got disaster recovery funds or whatever? Like did I run good constituent services? It's not sexy, what's you know? These Republican voters. I think it's more did I make the left mad? Did I fight? You know, did I
sue Joe Biden? And it's just a mismatch between what your metric for successes, I think, and what the old ways were and the cornn style and what the Packston style is.
Hey, you put it in your story as it's a it's an era of like just deep partisanship, and that is not a role that Cornyn plays well. And in Kayla's story, he's the last of the gentleman Republican and it's just a no holds barred kind of situation now, and he just was not a fit for who the conservative base wants, which is that fighter impact.
And it's funny, like, I mean, you could ask Senate Democrats who were there during the Obama era when Cornan was also the whip, if they would say he definitely stood against us, right, they say he stemied our priority and when the Senate flipped control in the Obama era. But that's so long ago, right, and it's different, and what they're it's not just stopping you know, left wing priorities. It's like actively taking.
The fight to them.
I think that people are looking for.
Well, listen, four terms, he did a heck of a lot as you said, I think you do have to sort of uh recognize the impact that John Cornyon has had on Texas and now he now it's interesting to see what he does with the remaining months. Does he does he join the Yolo That is the question. Yeah.
I mean, we saw Senator Cassidy from Louisiana, who finished third in a primary, and he, you know, took the really I think like fatal wound step of voting to convict Trump in the second impeachment, which obviously Cornan never did. But Cassidy lost that primary, and the very next week he voted for the War Powers Resolution on Iran with Democrats and a handful of Republicans and it passed for
the first time. So I don't know, Corna doesn't strike me as someone who's just gonna throw caution to the wind. But you know, I if there's close votes votes, I could see people keeping a closer eye on him. I could see you know, him saying, well, I need to think about it. But the Yolo Caucus is definitely alive and thriving. In the Senate, it's fifty three forty seven, so you only need four Republicans and they've got four even without corn In pretty much.
And on the House side, we saw TMC had a photo of Thomas Massey and Marjorie Taylor Green together in Costa Rica. So maybe that's where Cornan's off to, you know, he's a that's the real Yolo Caucus.
Yeah, I mean, I feel like there's this sort of like liberal fantasy that Cornin's gonna like tear the mask off and like become a vegan with James tell Erico and you know, endorse him and vote.
Against that John McCain.
I mean, yeah, we have a.
Lot of evidence that Cornin is a conservative guy, and maybe not as conservative as Texas runoff voters would like him to be, or maybe not as temperamentally conservative, but it's hard to imagine him just like burning the place down.
There's also, like the sun is not going to do that much for the next seven months in a midterm year, So I don't think that's gonna be that many like dramatic vote opportunities.
But we'll say, but it's.
Also hard to imagine him being like one of Ken Paxton's strongest campaigners or endorsers.
I think he is sport the ticket. He's gonna support the ticket.
Yeah, yeah, all right, so let's talk about some of these other races. Maga Mays Middleton, Mega Maze coming away with a ten point victory over chip Roy.
Eleanor you know.
I think this race again affirmed the idea that like allegiance to Trump is what matters to the base. I think, uh, chip Roy really came in the runoff outspent Mays Middleton on ads, which is a real upset from the primary where Mays Middleton just like wallpapered every television in America with ads about his relationship with President Trump. But it just, I mean, it wasn't enough. I think that chip Roy is also sort of has that independent streak is you know,
he has said that Trump engage an impeachable conduct. On January sixth, he said that he campaigned for Ron DeSantis.
I think he has tried to sort of carve this independent path for himself and then also come election time come back and say, like, but of course, ideologically I am identical, you know, with Mays Middleton or with President Trump, and like, don't you want an independent to be you know, someone with like a little bit of fealty to Texas not to the President, to be your attorney General and the answer was no, we want someone with fealty to
the president. And yeah, mays Middleton only cost him seventeen million dollars. But what, there's no price.
Too high as chief compared to the center is yeah, exactly, yeah, but all out of one guy's pocket, right, yeah.
All right.
My favorite race railroad Commissioner. This was the one close race of the night, at least from the state wide perspective. The Associated Press called it this morning Beau French winning. He, when I just recently looked, had fifty point six percent of the vote forty nine point for the incumbent Jim Right. This is Boufrench who has called for one hundred million people to be deported from the US. That's nearly a third of the country's population. This is the Beau French
who was endorsed or was not endorsed. His opponent was endorsed by Dan Patrick, Greg Abbott, other prominent leaders. Dan Patrick, in fact, less than a year ago, called on him to resign as Arran County GOP chair, saying, quote, anti Semitism and religious bigotry have no place in Texas. This is after he put a poll up on Twitter asking who was worse for America Jews or Muslim.
Jews are Muslims? You know.
The question that we asked in the run up to the election was is can you run too far to the right even for Texas runoff? The answer, it seems is no, at least.
By a narrow margin.
No.
Yeah.
Greg Abbott seemed to come out and sort of back him today saying, you know we're going to be united up and down the ticket. Do you this is this is a really hard We talked about Attorney General being a hard race to break through. Railroad Commissioner. Most people don't even know what it does. It regulates the only gas industry in Texas. That's going to be really hard to break through too. Is this anything that Republicans should be concerned about.
I think you saw what the Ken Paxton race, the Big three immediately coming out and saying we've got to get behind Ken Paxton because they are worried about Republican unity. For the reasons that we have discussed. There's you know, the economy is slowing down, it's not great, gas prices
are up, there's backlash to the president. There's there's a Republican president of the White House, they see the tea leaves, so they they know that it's going to be a rough mid term election and that they all need to be on the same page so that they can sort of blunt the effect of that hit. I guess I think it's going to be the same thing down ballot, where you've got to just kind of just swallow that very tough pill and say we're going to get behind
both French because we've got to be united. But it's not going to be their favorite thing. I mean, Governor Abbott, who is the most popular statewide in the state, has been for years. He's going to have to work with probably Don Helfines as his state controller unless there a cart can pull off a very interesting upset, and potentially with both French as his railroad commissioner, two guys who are very very far to the right and who have been critical and who have not been on the same
page all the time. But what it says that they have that unity is that they recognize the headwinds coming at them and they're saying, we've got to be prepared. This cannot be twenty eighteen all over again. We've got to be on the same page.
I mean, and I will say I got so many text messages from Jim Rights campaign. I also got a lot from Bauf French's campaign basically, but none of the Jim Right ones. We're saying like, guess what he said about you know, Muslims. Guess what he said about Jewish people. Guess what he said about you know, deportations. Guess what he said about naturalized citizens. All of them were you know,
I was saying like we were. I mean, Jim Wright was saying like, well, I'm also concerned about Islamophobia, Like don't get that one on over me. And it's like, I think that the it's so clear from this, even if like beau French had lost, let's say by you know, a point or two, that the party this race, to me, more than anything, exemplifies how far the party has moved or is willing to accept on these you know, culture
war issues that Boufrench weather. I mean, he did win by an inch, but also he was like setting the tone for this race from the beginning.
And I feel like I've heard from pessimists and both parties about this, where I've seen Republicans say this is our worst statewide candidate are most likely lose and they're worried. John Rosenthal the Democrats like a very normy engineer guy. And then I've seen Democrats say it's just too far down the ballot and if anything is ever going to flip in the state, it would have to be the top of the ticket because that's where the attention is going to be.
And that's their whole job. That's their whole job. That's their whole job.
That's like, sure Jewish someone could educate the vote to attack.
The most vulnerable person on the ballot. Yeah, you've got a guy who's saying who's worst for the country, Jews or Muslims. That's the that's TDP's whole job. That's the party's job. That's what are we talking about.
It takes a lot of money, though, I mean, you know, the state of thirty million people, five major media markets. You got to get the word out, and you know, this is one where you've got to grab people's attentions to get.
The word out.
And you have a race that like the name of the office isn't even what it does. So I think like the voter education is going to be tough on that.
Yeah, I think that's giving them a lot of credit. I mean, these guys were begging for vulnerable candidates. You've got vulnerable candidates, and I think to to, I guess this is what we're talking about. Democrats have tried to convince us here in state and the country at large that Texas is the largest battle ground state in the country. Yes, we are going to find out if it's actually a battleground state or if it's what I think I have believed it to be, which is a more red state
that could be a little bit bluer. But this is it. I mean, look at the slate. It's people who the Republican establishment didn't want to put on the ballot because they thought that that would be a very difficult race.
In November.
You got camp Pax and you got Done hoof Fines, you got both French. Those are your ideal candidates if you're a Democrat trying to sneak up on them. So the Democrats have to sort of do their job, make it at least close, because if it's not at least close, I think that's going to be trouble. I mean, you think you have a hard time getting funded right now if you don't get close this time you're not you're not going to see any money for a while.
Well, and like I mean they demcrats very proudly, like they filled every single you know, they've got a challenger in every single race. And it's like why are you doing that if not to be building voter awareness and like if you can't take a run at boat fringe, then like what are you doing?
Yeah?
But is this where we're getting to Like I think what's going to be interesting is that Downbaut effects on the congressional races and on the Texas House races, because I think they are actually concerned about the Texas House. Dan Patrick's concerned about the Texas House. Gadson said, we're going to keep it. We're going to keep it. But you've got to say that if you're the speaker, because you want to keep that gabble.
It's funny because now we're treat you were the skeptical on the packs, the skeptic in the Paxston tell Rico, and now I'm going to become the skeptic on the House. I mean, you know they didn't do it in twenty eighteen and these are very different district boundaries. Then I mean, to me the map of flipping the house feels like extremely challenging up to the realm of maybe impossible.
But also I mean, if I'm Democrats, I'm going to hit the point that if they don't flip the house or get very close to flipping the house, Republicans are going to redraw those maps and it is game over for you know, Democrats to ever retake the house.
Ever we should see. I think I'm with you, Matthew, like I think taking the house is probably a bridge too far. I mean, the districts are drawn the way that the districts are drawn, but I think that there are gains to be made for the Democrats. Obviously, One eighteen in San Antonio obviously is a big target for them because Luhan is out. Christian Caranza, who ran last time against Luhan and had a pretty close race, she's running again and she knows where to knock on doors.
I think that's going to be interesting. You've got those like sort of South Texas races with Janie Lopez and San Benito Denise Bolobos. I think if you look at the bets that Republicans have made on Latino voters, Latino voters have started swinging away from the president and away from Republican policies because of backlash to economic policies. Economy again is like teetering. I mean, I don't think it's terrible here in Texas obviously, but those gas prices are high, huh,
and of groceries are high. So Latinos are that are concerned about that as all voters are. Latinos are just voters like everybody else, and they're also concerned. And this is where it hits Latino voters more about the immigration crackdown, because that is an issue that does impact Latinos much more. Because even in Texas, I mean, there are many, many mixed status families where there's one person who's a US
citizen and another person's undocumented. You're seeing these terrible stories about this eighteen year old here in Austin, the high school student who got detained by ice on his way home from a shift. That Louisiana Popeye's Kitchen. They're Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen in same to describe Popeyes.
But keep going.
Popeye's Louisiana Kitchen. That's what it's cool. What's cool, keep going and you on the the other thing about these like little kids from Venezuela who got taken out the bus stop like these are the people stories like this. These are the people who theoretically Republicans and Conservatives want in the country, want to give asylum to. They are the people fighting Nicholas Maduro's regime, just like the president. And so if you keep seeing those stories, I think
that will have an impact. And that's going to have an impact in South Texas in the congressional races, which I know are kind of still super trumpy districts, but with so much headwinds that.
They weren't twenty twenty four.
You know, it's like, yeah, it comes down to I think that's gonna be interesting.
I also think the suburbs are worth looking at because these are like the corn In areas, right, I mean, the sort of more highly educated, upper class suburbs. What do these voters do And if you're a state rep there, do you have to have a brand that's independent of Trump and Paxton? And can you do that if Trump and Paxston are in the news every day? So I think those are some like state house type seats to watch too.
And Gabby, that's such a great point because we can say, taller Rico has been just a state Rep. But Tallerico's a state Rep. From Williamson County originally. I know he moved to Austin, but he's originally from Williamson County in the suburbs. He knows how to win those districts, and he will, I think, will go to the suburbs and he'll boost those House candidates, those congressional candidates in those races, give them that. So I think really that's what's really
at play. You would think if you're the Texas Democrats, that you want to hit one of these vulnerable candidates statewide, but really what's at play, I think is lower down the.
Belt also, just you know, shrinking those merchants, right.
I mean, you know, we know one issue that is likely to come up because the Republican delegation went up to Washington, d C. And talked to Stephen Miller, is you know, pressure to reverse player v DO and you know, not provide public education to undocumented students in Texas. That's a you know, a major major issue that I'll be up next legislative session. I think there are probably some
Republicans who would vote against it. And if you're a Democrat and you care about that issue, you want to shrink those as much as possible.
Can I just say one more thing, because I think I was a little bit down on those state wides for the for the Democrats. But you got to talk about Nathan Johnson running for AG there against Mace Middleton talking about AG again, Well, I think we just got to give him some some do I mean, this is a good guy who flipped a Dallas district in the Senate that had been Republican for decades. District took out Don Huff finds who's back now, and he knows how to he knows how to flip, he knows how to
flip something. So I think there's some credit to be given there. He's obviously a very smart guy. He knows May's Middleton because they've been in the Senate together. And I think Nathan Johnson could probably raise a good amount of money and I'm curious to see how that goes.
Probably if you look down ballot from Tall Rico, I think Nathan Johnson probably has the better chance, I guess because he's the smart guy and May's Middleton is one of those who's like so far to the right that it could could be a race if if, if all things go, Democrats, wait, as he's the best case scenario that you guys are presenting.
Well, and I think like Middleton too, when you were listing like these bolt like the sort of worst case scenarios, right, they were very worried about Paxton being vulnerable. They're worried about hut fines, They're worried about bo French. I think they's Middleton in is you know, not maybe it's not as contentious, but like is a is sort of a worst scenario many I remember talking a lot of Republicans like strategists who are saying, like Chip Roy is like
a little bit harder to beat Mas. Middleton has this real vulnerability which is about you know, his legal experience, and I think he just gave it to them. Yeah, exactly. It's been laying that out. I mean the primary cycle did that as well. And so I do think we're going to see in a big way Johnson hitting Middleton on you know, lack of legal experience.
And he fits into the billionaire or eat the rich kind of situation. I mean for his campaign for the most part on his own, which has not been a barrier to anyone in the past before, but in this environment that we're in, it fits in with Tallarico's message, it fits in with Gina in the host's message. It could be something there.
We have some audience questions. I'll just also acknowledge the Vicky Goodwin victory lesson another big lieutenant governor as well. So we'll see the ticket is shaped up now and we'll see how it shakes out. And Matt where we got for questions?
Okay, so we do have a couple questions and then we'll turn it back over for you all to close it out. But first, I know we're talking a little bit about South Texas. The question about does Julio Salinas winning in the RGV show signs of an early shift in the political coalitions of South Texas?
You want to take that you were talking about South Texas.
I don't know. I mean, I was looking at those South Texas races and runoffs are weird. Also, a lot of those races didn't get a whole lot of like down ballot races did not get a whole lot of money. So really on those ones, it's just like who's knocking on more doors, Who's known name is known the best, really, so I think it's really hard to draw like a
strong conclusion from down ballot races like that. But I mean, we'll see in the next what we got four months till November really about what the alliances are going to look like.
I know, we talked today a lot about the just the attention of the national media on on the Senate race. You know, so well, this person asks, will this will be our last question here? Will Texas? Will the Texas selection be the poster child of what will happen nationally for Republicans, i e. A bitter division between the legacy goop and MAGA fans.
I mean, I think it already is being portrayed that way, but I also think Texas is not alone in that right, Like I think text this you know, sort of comes on the heels of several other races where it's really mostly about like allegiance to Trump and are you on board sort of are you on the MAGA train or are you not? And so yeah, I think this race is going to be held up by the national media as emblematic of everything and you know, like whatever they
whatever sort of you want it to represent. I think there's a lot of themes in there, but I definitely think we're going to say a lot of takes about Texas.
I do think it's also like the most striking example of that dynamic, just because it's not Thomas Massey who votes against Trump all the time. It's not Bill Cassidy who voted to convict, it's John Cornyn, who's like the center Republican. And then also just you know, for the general election of the when you think about like the Democratic path to taking the Senate, you have to hold Michigan and Georgia. The best flop opportunities are North Carolina
and Maine. And then there's this bucket of Iowa, Texas, Alaska, and Ohio. And of those four, I mean Texas obviously by far the biggest electoral prize and the only one that has no recent history of any Democratic state wide success. I mean even Obama won Iowa, right, Mary Peltola won Alaska House not that long ago, So that would really be I think, just for national narrative wise, I mean, yeah, that would be like the biggest prize for sure.
Yeah.
And of course, I mean many people have made this point, but a competitive Texas Senate race also just means Republicans nationally having to pump a lot of money into a very expensive state that could be spent otherwhere other places supporting other candidates. And I think, you know, there is some frustration among folks that they may have to do that, and I think they're gonna have to do that. I mean, whether or not he wins, whether or not tul Rico wins or not. I have a hard time seeing this
not feeling like a competitive race. In September October of.
This year, it was a good night if you're Roy Cooper, the Democrat in North Carolina, right, if you're the Democrats in even some of these more reached states like Iowa, Alaska, where our Republicans are they gonna have to spend in Texas And does that take money away? Yeah, from those states.
And like I think back to my point in the beginning, Like, you know, this sort of grassroots arm of the Republican Party wins in large part by portraying themselves as sort of the threatened underdog. And so I think that's not gonna go away just because they've won this, you know battle, as well as most other statewide seats.
Yeah, I mean it could play well to them to say, hey, the establishment doesn't want to give us more money, Let's show them what real Texas is and that kind of fuels them. But I am curious to see after and November. Obviously a hindsight is twenty twenty. But if it all feels really really great for the president right now, it all feels really really great for the Republican base right now. But after November, after election Day, is it going to be like, Okay, the base was right, this is fully
Trump full steam ahead. Or is this a sort of like Carrie Lake situation or memet Oz situation where the President got behind these candidates who were going to be controversial candidates and then they lost in the general. So that's sort of we can have that conversation in November. But I think there's so much still to play out, which is going to be interesting to see.
Okay, well, James, Gabby, it's been great. Thank you all so much for being here and for giving your insights.
A big thank you to our sponsors builders Texas State Technical College in Texas Matters, and a big thank you to our members who are here and elsewhere out there who make this event and make the podcast and all of this reporting possible. We're going to have a lot of time talk about between now and November, looking forward to it, but that is it for today.