Do not adjust your podcast playing device. This is the Texas Trips Texas Tribune trip Cast, and I am Matthew Watkins. And you just heard some new theme music for the trip Cast, A nice new jam by our producers, Robin Chris. What do you think, Eleanor?
I love it? New year, new music, new US.
That's right.
Yeah.
That voice you heard, of course, is Eleanor Klibanoff, law and politics reporter for the Tribune.
Still same me, Still same, Eleanor.
Any any New Year's resolutions?
Do more trip Cast, have more fun with the Tripcast. We're gonna get weird on the trip Cast this year.
That's right, Yeah, that's right. Stick around the new music, new US. Yeah. This week we are joined by two politics reporters, Kayla Glow. Hello, Kayla. Hi, Matthew, how is your holiday break?
Very long and nice?
Excellent? And all the Hunter Serrano? Howdy, how are you doing? I'm all right good, all right. Well, speaking of trying new things on the podcast, we're going to do a start of the year podcast, ten burning Questions for Texas Politics in twenty twenty six. We have compiled the Crack Politics team and I have compiled a list of questions from them. It goes a little bit beyond who's going to win and all that kind of stuff, But I think the things that are going to define Texas politics
for the next ten years. We're going to collect y'all's thoughts, get your ideas, and see how this goes.
Are you already ten years? Did I say ten years for the next year?
Ten items for the next ten years, but the.
Impact percussions will be a decade as long as ten years.
Okay, are you al ready yes? All right? Question number one from the GOP Politics Group. Does the Greg Abbot of twenty twenty four stick around in twenty twenty six? And what I mean by that is, as you all remember, in twenty twenty four, we saw the new powerful Greg Abbott Austin eight House members, really becoming the dominant political figure, not just his for his ability to win elections himself, but to affect the political futures of people across the state.
What do we think about Greg Abbott coming into twenty twenty six, the next election season, in primary season going forward?
Everyone looks at me, all right, I would ask, I don't know if it's Governor Greg abbit of twenty twenty four as much as I think the environment has changed. And I think back to like twenty seventeen when he had what like forty fifty million dollars and first stepped into primaries. Everyone was like, WHOA, what is the governor doing?
So I think this is a new strategy. I mean he has like unmatched fine fundraising ability and I think unmatched desire in a lot of ways determination, And I think we're going to keep seeing more of what we've seen them. A reminder of this summer during the redistricting battle, where he was on a radio talk shown he said this is unprecedented and what I'm paraphrasing here, but what Democrats are used to is no more like we are
going to use every tool we have. And I think that's what we're going to keep seeing.
And I think we see that in I think he's already said in Telegraph that he plans to put a lot of resources into flipping Harris County red. He's recruited candidates. I think the Houston Chronicle reported this to run in every race on the ballot in Harris County, including in pretty blue seats. I think, like Jean Moose seat, he's
recruited somebody to run against them. They might seem a little bit pie in the sky aspirations, but you know, I think he's going to focus his money and attention to doing what he can there.
I feel like the difference between twenty twenty six and twenty twenty four is he had that issue to fight for in twenty twenty four, and what really changed was it was a fight that was within the party right, he picked aside. He threw his considerable resources toward that. He's kind of talking about that same way. I think he probably I don't know why he wouldn't enjoyed the idea of, like I am now the king, you know, you have to bow down to me, at least in
the Republican Party. In that realm, he's talked about spending twenty five million dollars in twenty six. He has talked about property taxes and the possibility of a limiting property taxes, but property taxes are not a complicated controversial topic within the Republican Party, and so like I do wonder you talk about the circumstances being different, is like, does he
have that wedge? Does he have that thing that he can do to sort of assert his will or maybe the difference is just they're already all on his side in this.
Case, and I think there is a difference between I want to oust these specific House members who opposed vouchers who are Republicans with more conservative Republicans or more conservative on vouchers at least, then you know, I'm going to
turn a traditionally blue county red. Like I think he probably will have some you know, successes there, whether it's with judges or things like that, but you know, we may actually see sort of what are the limits of a Republican governor's re or Republican political kingmaker's power in blue,
you know, deeply blue urban areas in Texas. Like, you know, it's easy, I think, being in Austin or being in the capital to feel like there are no limits to what Republicans can do, and then you get out into like the blue urban areas and it's like, well, there are pretty significant limits to what you can do.
One thing that I think it's interesting, though, is that it's not just property Texas or Harris County, mad it's also South Texas. It feels like he has like all these issues and he has a lot of money to pour into them. And one thing that's also carrious and very fascinate about the governors that he doesn't have a legislative background. He was a jurist, and the way he governs it is very different, like we see that with
emergency declarations, disaster declarations, vetos. I mean, I'm sure we'll get into TC later, so I don't know, I'm curious.
Yeah, I do think like the biggest test of his power, particularly within the Republican Party, will perhaps be the comptrollers race. You know, everyone knows the background here. He appointed Kelly Hancock as the acting comptroller. He immediately endorsed him. That did not stop to other, you know, fairly well known
in Texas politics candidates from getting the race. Don Huffines, who had previously run against him as governor, a very conservative person, someone who I think could possibly be perceived as a bit of a headache for Abbott were he to be elected into office. Christie Krattick, someone who has in the past been talked about as a possible future governor of Texas. You know, a railroad commissioner, daughter of the former House speaker. He clearly wants Hancock to win.
How much is he willing to really fight for him. And how much will it mean to the primary voters that Hancock has Abbot fighting for him. I think will be a really interesting test. That's a little bit different than the voucher test because it's not necessarily pitting the activist wing of the party against the moderate wing of the party, with Abbot taking the activist wing side.
Right.
Sorry, and I know you're covering the comptrollers, right, but if anything, it's taking sort of the you know, opposing the activists, right. I mean, King Hancock was a vote against Ken Paxton and the impeachment. That's sort of I feel like we have not heard as much about that as I sort of expected to yet, but it is sort of an issue.
I mean, Alejandro, Yeah, I.
Mean I think we will get a glimpse of an answer, not a definitive answer, but next week when the next filings campaign finance for are submitted to the state, and we'll see like how much of the candidates hauling, how much are people spending, and how much is sort of like the governor's apparatus trying to help Hancock because the other two candidates are prolific fundraised, I mean, Christocratic is mister half Fines has self funding his campaign and spent a lot to try to unseat the governor.
So this leads to my next question, which is in the ten years that I have worked at the Tribune, coming up on eleven years, actually the story of Republican politics in the state has been the establishment versus the insurgent wing. Every election we sort of look at the results to see how did each side fare. And the question I have is what is the establishment in twenty twenty six? Is there an establishment in twenty twenty six, and if so, who represents the establishment?
I mean, this is I think also a question in some ways is like royaling national Republican politics as well. I mean, just like the sort of outsider we're not the swamp, we're not part of you know, where the outsider voices are now have so much power and are so central I think in some ways to the party apparatus that they have become the establishment in some ways,
which makes it hard for them sort of. They're in a tricky position to try to be governing as outsiders and truth tellers when it's like, well, you guys just have if not a majority, like a real le powerful part of the party, but yeah, I mean I think I don't know. I mean, what are you when you think about where the Republican Party is going? Who who is now the activist wing and who is the establishment wing?
Or is that even how we should like a relevant.
Framing, right?
Yeah, yeah, it's hard to see where that distinction even lies anymore. Looking back at the legislative session, I mean, I think the activist wing got a lot of what they wanted. They like, got to carry a lot of big priorities through that tech his house, which I think normally we might see as a place where people might you know, stand up to that wing of the party. And it seems like people are in the Republican Party are very much in line and they're very much behind
from behind Abbott as he's wielding this power. So yeah, I don't I don't know that there I don't see that much of a distinction.
I mean, it feels to me like there has always been it is always It has been an effect relatively effective strategy, particularly in legislative races in other places, to pin an incumbent or an opponent really as a rhino right, and as the Republican power structure has moved to the right from say the days of Joe Strauss to the days of Dustin Burrows. How can can that rhino label
continue to work? Is that something you can just kind of keep doing over and over again, or has this eventually you know, the people who are holding power and holding an influence in the legislature, have they moved enough to the right to keep the you know what used to be called the insurgent wing of the party party happy. I mean, I think that'll be an interesting thing to watch in some of these races.
And I think we saw a little bit of that, Like I mean in the speaker's race that started twenty twenty five, where it was like almost laughable, And I think we all talked, probably to members and Republicans who felt like, yeah, it's a little bit foolish to be saying, like Dustin Burrows this like lefty, you know, rhino, who's can you believe we're going to put him in.
Charge of the party. It's like, that's almost laughable.
It still was pretty effective, not effective enough to win him, you know, or to cost him the speakership, But like, I don't know that anyone is going to be retiring that as a way to describe someone, It just maybe will become less and less like connected to reality.
And I think the issue maybe we might see that come up on is property taxes and maybe this push from the real right wing of you know, got to get rid of them entirely, and the reality just being like, that's really hard to do and what is the actual proposal to do that. So I could see it being wielded as you know, a cudgel in that way of insurgent like true activists versus the establishment. But I think that will run into the real like policy realities of how to go about doing that.
I think, well, it's gonna be curious to see the role immigration plays in a lot of these races, and
especially with legal border crossing so low. I mean last primary I remember like this, like races that were dominated about with messaging about border security, but they're really about vouchers, whereas like now, with crossing so low and immigration enforcement so increased, I wonder if what role that's going to play and if it has an impact, if that's going to lead to changes you know, next cycle.
And I think you can say that about a lot of issue with President Trump in office now, it's like a lot of the big things that Republicans were like, you know, Texas needs to be the leader on this. The federal government isn't taking control of this are sort of, at least temporarily kind of non issues.
You know.
I think about a lot of the social issues President Trump has taken, you know, very decisive action, and now you're sort of like, well, what is there to rail about?
All right? Speaking of issues, last question in the GOP primary category, which is will Ken Paxton's personal issues matter to GOP primary voters?
No, thank you, they haven't yet.
Next, they have not so far. It is a different here's the case for it. I don't necessarily believe this case, but I'm going to make this build the straw man so you can mow it over, which is basically the attorney general's race. While it matt office. While it matters very much to us, particularly Eleanor.
I don't like where this is going.
There are a lot of PEOP people who don't even know who the Attorney General of Texas is.
Not after I cover this race.
Many people know who their US senators are. Much more money gets pumped into those races, and Kim Paxton is no longer the incumbent and that might cause for a different type of evaluation of him in this three person race where you have, you know, whether he's the establishment anymore or not, the person painted as the establishment candidate, John Cornyn, and you have another person trying to take up the maga mantle, trying to take up the anti
establishment mantle, who does not have the baggage that Keim Paxton does. So you have a new office and you also have a different set of choices for voters. Does that change the equation at all? The answer is no, and we'll move on.
No, I think ultimately, like I don't know that that is.
Let me say this, Are there GOP primary voters who absolutely care about this and you know, maybe even like Ken Paxton's you know, style and politics, but are not going to vote for him because of his issues?
Yes? Is that enough to sway the election?
It might be enough to force a runoff, like you know, more people swinging towards Wesley Hunt or you know, but I'm skeptical that it is enough in the end to cost him the election.
I agree.
Okay, it's funny how we talk about Paxston like as the incumbent in this race.
Even though he is not, in fact, like it's his race to lose. It's like, you know, well, I'd say.
The other thing is also like he has obviously had all this legal baggage and he has emerged, you know, Victoria's charges have been dropped, he hasn't been impeached, you know, And I think that helps him paint himself as a fighter who's maligned by the establishment in the way of Donald Trump, who is, of course, are still very popular with primary voters.
So I don't know. I think for some people it'll help him.
A complete hypothetical, would John Corny be helped if he had more issues and was being aligned by the Democratic established, he.
Should have gotten you know, the Biden Justice Department to indict him.
His kingdom for an indictment.
That's right, Okay, let's move on to the Democrats. Now, Democrats, should they play nice or sharpen their knives? This is particularly a Tall Rico versus Crockett framing, right, Tall Rico, every grandma's favorite candidate.
The.
Sweet, nice young man who used to be a teacher. Crockett, who has become famous for her willingness to very strongly go after Republican leaders. We could frame this question either way. Should they play nice with each other in order to ensure a strengthened candidate moving forward, or should they take the more conciliatory approach toward maybe moderate voters in order to be in a stronger position. Where do we think
the mind is of the Democratic electorate right now? Calee, I'm going to start with you.
I think the common wisdom is that Democratic primary voters want a fighter and someone who will stand up to Republicans and show that they're not impotent and just you know, going to write an angrily worded letter and call it at that. I think Jasmine Crockett pretty easily fits into that,
you know, mold of what people seem to want. At the same time, I think we've heard Talerigo start rolling out some messaging to try to combat that characterization of her and this sort of automatic categorization of him as some like passive preacher piece hippie guy. And he's been saying like he has taken on Republicans as well, and he's also won He's passed legislation despite being in the minority. So I don't know actually that it's such a to like fighter versus not fighter.
Choice, or at least that's what he's trying to make it not seem like one as much.
But yeah, I don't know if you'll be able to change that perception of him as this, you know, loving guy. And I also think it's maybe dangerous for him to try to take out the knives against Jasmin Crockett. He came out very quickly being like, we have to respect and love everyone in this race, and that includes Jasmin Crockett.
I think if he walked back from that now, it would be kind of striking, and it also would be him attacking this like fairly well liked person among Democratic primary voters.
Listeners of the podcast will have had in their feed a couple of weeks ago, while we were enjoying our holiday,
my interview with tell Rico at the trip Fest. And to me, what was what they did not see in that feed and what to me is the most memorable part of that interview was we did that interview in Saint David's Church, which is a room of about like three hundred and fifty people, and you walk the to appear on stage, as you know, Eleanor because you also did this, you walk up a stairwell into the aisle of the church and you have to walk down the entire aisle almost like you're getting married to get up
to the stage. And actually tell Rico made that joke. But something that I never have never experienced is walking into a room with someone that people are as excited
to see as James Tellerico. As soon as like our heads kind of popped up, there was this like sort of like collective gasp and like cheer from the people in the room that was there, and I was like, wow, this is like you I know, yeah, of course, of course I did like try to have like no, they're not doing this for you, like here you go, but like that really stuck with me, and you know, to be completely honest, immediately after that was an interview with Colin Allread that I also did, and he did not
generate that kind of reaction, and that really stuck with me. Alread obviously dropped out of the race, but there is that excitement around Tallerrico. The thing is is that you know, Jasmine Crockett didn't make it to trip Fest due to what was going on in Congress at the time. Would she have generated that same reaction? Probably yes, And I have actually been I make the joke about tall Rico
being the grandma favorite. But like another speaking engagement I had recently was with a group in Austin called Women Vote, and it was a head of trip Fest and they were talking about the different people who were coming to Tripfest, and it was a group of you know, it was as jd Vance would call the elderly hippies, right, the older you know, Democratic leaning women, And the applause for Jasmine Crockett was just as palpable. And it is a
pretty amazing sort of confluent. And so that that Texas has two of these people and they are in the same race, which leads me to my next question. Will Democrats regret not spreading out that talent more? Is this bad for the Democrats to have both of them on the ballot for the same race when they're trying to make gains up and down the ballot.
I mean Democrats started with, like, I don't know, five pretty big names that were maybe gonna they wanted to form this slate to run in all these statewide offices to do exactly that and spread their talent, and now it's just the two of them, like they've kind of fallen off. I think Colin all Read dropping down to his congressional race obviously helps the party in terms of avoiding a runoff.
But then again, you.
Like he's just going into a spot where there's like you're having another competitive prime.
Also right you're right now, and it's not helping your state wide ticket. I mean if you I would, I bet if we walked out on Congress Avenue right now and ask people to name a statewide candidate for any of the offices that are not named you know, taller Ico or Crockett, people would not be able to do.
We should do that, We do that on the road.
Yeah, But I mean, I think that there was so much I don't know, like talk early on I think about or like rumored talk I guess about, you know, from these sort of luminaries of the Texas Party about getting sort of a super ticket, getting you know, like we really got to run this, and we got to run seriously, and we got to put like real talent in each of these races. And obviously there are candidate good candidates running in all of those races, but not
the like name recognition cachet uh candidates. And I do wonder, like sometimes if those more i mean better work the castros, these like long slightly longer tenured leaders of the party or leading candidates of the party them decided not to run. I mean, do they feel like it's not winnable, Like do they feel like this is like just throwing you know, like they can do more as fundraisers or is sort of surrogates and they can do like putting their own name on it.
Yeah, I do think. I mean it's I think those two candidates and the other people who were interested in that race were particularly interested in it because of the possibility of running against Ken Paxson in the general election. On the other hand, I mean I think a lot about tall Ico, a former teacher. You know, education has been a big part of what he does. He made his name in the Texas legislature. Why is he not
running for governor? And there's you know, twenty five million reasons why he's not running for governor and polls that would suggest that Abbott is a much much, much more difficult candidate to face anyways, But what they're missing is really the candidate that's willing to sort of stick their neck out, and that could be something that they that they feel for sure. Next question, question number six, what would a blue way look like in twenty twenty six?
I will I will preface this by noting the last time we had the quote unquote blue wave was again a competitive Senate race twenty eighteen. Beto Arouric loses by less than three percentage points to Ted Cruz. But in the meantime, Democrats flip twelve seats in the Texas House and gain two seats in Congress. Doesn't seem very possible, Kayla, even if they get similar results at the top of the ballot this year.
I mean, they've only lost ground since twenty eighteen. Obviously, next year they're hoping will resemble twenty eighteen more. To take back the Texas House, they would have to win fourteen seats, which just seems completely impossible and not going to happen. But I think they are hoping that, like Kempaxon will be the nominee and that that will make a blue wave that translates to a statewide flip possible.
Democrats are running in every single race on the ballot, every federal and state race, and they're hoping that that means they can maximize their chances of flipping some seats and also send some energy up the ballot. But I mean again, yeah, I think it'll I think there's still a lot of months until November, and I think it'll depend on the economy, and I think the economy first and foremost.
But yeah, I don't know.
I don't know that it'll be such a giant, you know wave.
And one of the main reasons for that, of course is redistricting. Right, twenty eighteen happened at the end of a decade. I mean, I guess we're only two years earlier in the decade, but we, you know, had a mid term or districting in Congress, which means, even if we have that kind of a result, it's more likely than not that Republicans will gain seats in Congress as opposed to Democrats. But in the Texas House, where things
have been the most volatile in the past. You I'm quoting yourself back to you, Kyla, but you recently wrote that the House Democratic Campaign Committing Committee has identified five target seats, four that Democrats tried and failed to flip in twenty twenty four and one seat that they lost
during that time. Five is a very small number, and you almost never hit all your target seats, so we could really be talking about even if you see a Beto like performance at the top, that not really changing the dynamic in the legislature much, if at all, which is just an interesting difference.
I think one data point that would help the argument that there is a blue wave when we do the after action analysis whatever, is if Democrats can complicate the narratives belatinos, because I feel like least election showed Republicans have made great inroads and that was happening for years. I mean, the GUP invested in South Texas and also you saw that in some hds in the Houston area.
So it's not a surprise that the governor with eighty seven billion dollars wants to focus on Harrison County and keep making those in roads and get people out to vote, like low propensity voters. So I think that's gonna be one of the key things to look out for.
I was just gonna the only thing I was gonna add on redistricting is I do wonder also about whether, and you know it has, redistricting has created a little bit more awareness around all of this, right, Like I think obviously like that primarily affects congressional seats. But I think a lot of people don't like the idea that like, oh, like my vote has kind of been taken away from me.
My vote feels like it doesn't matter as much. I don't get to like pick who I want and like, does that mobilize some people Trump is not at the top of the ticket. There are people who are pissed off about what Trump is doing. You know, does that motivate some Democrats to come out and vote? But is that enough to strategically shift things in the House.
I don't know.
Yeah, I think it's a really interesting question, and let's use it as a transition to the next one. I mean, al Hunter, you talked about some of the kind of trends that happened. This to me is like the question of Texas politics for the next decade. As I said, the next ten years is basically was the twenty twenty four election a blip or a sign of political reshuffling
in Texas? And I'll set that up a little bit more right, which is that we have had we have all gone through this cycle right many times where it's like, oh, do Democrats have a chance And the answer has been no, but that has sort of belied the fact that the margins were shrinking. Right, you had Trump winning by sixteen points in twenty sixteen, you had Biden losing by Now I'm going to get all mixed up, but basically you had a sixteen margin, a twelve margin, a nine margin,
like it was going down. And then in twenty twenty four it went right back up to Trump winning by around fourteen and beyond that. The reason that that happened was some significant changes in some of the demographics that Democrats had identified. Eighteen to twenty nine year olds, Trump swung plus eight percent from twenty twenty to twenty twenty four and essentially almost ran even there. Trump swung plus six percent among thirty to forty four year olds. You know,
young people moved dramatically to the right. Latinos even more so, a fourteen percent swing. Where basically this is according to exit polls from those two late races, Biden winning fifty eight to forty one among Latino voters in twenty twenty, Trump winning fifty five forty five among Latinos. Four years later, Sorry, did I say Trump winning fifty five to forty five? Yeah?
So yeah, yeah, we got it, and then the but there you know, the question is are those gains a reflection of a re orientation of Texas politics that would further entrench Republican dominance or was there something special about twenty twenty four that caused this? And we're going to go back to the trends we were already facing.
I think a mix of both.
I mean, not to cop out, yeah, but I think you know, I was interviewing someone first story recently. They described the Latino voter block as kind of like the power brokers who don't even know it yet because the population has changed so much and it's going to keep changing, and that's why both parties are rightfully so paying so
much attention. But you bring up young voters, and I think that is another like almost overlooked voter block, because Trump did make like a lot of inroads across the country with young voters, and it's curious to see how people in Texas are focusing on them. You know, you have the government tenant governor backing these turning point clubs
at high schools. It's not voting yet age, but you know, you get people animated and encouraging the political process you have a turning in general can pat and stumping at turning point college chapters where people can vote. So I think both those are I don't think it looks like the GPS not seeing that for granted, and that might kind of gets to answer about maybe it was a realignment.
But I also like scrutinized hypothesis and it's like, well, has the environment change like back to how we started?
Right? Yeah? I mean the polls would suggest that Trump is much less popular among Latino voters and young voters, for instance, than he was a year ago. Pupil came out in November, fifty five percent of Latino voters. This is nationwide, not just in Texas strongly disapproving of the work he's doing as president. Seventy percent overall disapproving. When you in factor in strongly and I guess less strongly.
I mean, that's that's significant and I think probably has you know, some people in Texas a little bit worried.
I think in a lot of ways like that will be the.
Story we are most watching coming out of the twenty twenty six elections is just like, you know, does that persist? And I think what happens in Texas on that front will or be used as like a crystal ball on a lot of national politics going forward.
So that leads to another questions with redistricting, did Republicans overplay their hand in South Texas? Will they gain those seats that they you know, so proudly touted after the redistricting in last year.
Well doesn't help the President Trump part in the Quay are I mean, I think I do think like those you know, like you said, like you were saying about the House seats, right, like if you target five, you don't always get five, right. I think President Trump wanted five seats in Texas out of redistricting. I think the two that are you know, up for debate are those
in the valley. And I think again it's just going to be a real bell weather for like where both parties focus their energy in the coming years with this weird caveat of Henry Quay are one of the most you know, moderate Democrats who had been running under this cloud of you know, indictment, pardoned by President Trump, who pretty clearly, I think from a social media post, thought he would be switching to the Republican Party after that.
He's you know, running against a Republican who previously was a Democrat in switching the party. So it's just like a very politically nuanced place that I think republican. I mean, I think both parties have struggled to like approach with like a statewide approach to be like, oh they're ours, No, they're hours. It's like they're themselves. The value belongs to itself.
They're going to do what they're going to do, and everyone will spend the next five years like analyzing what it all meant, and it will just mean like the valley is the valley.
Yeah, I mean the two candidates Kayla who are being targeted, Henry Quaiar has already mentioned Vicente A. Gonzalez, the other Democrat down there, both have a history of outperforming the top of the ticket.
Yeah.
These are two meekly durable Democrats that I think are very much tailored to their districts and well known in their districts. And so I think obviously Democrats see those two as their best chances of defending you know, those seats and making sure the Republicans don't get all five seats that they jerrymandered to get this summer, did Republicans overplay their hands. I don't know, because at least in Texas, they seem poised to get at least those three additional seats.
Which is pretty unusual. I mean, you wouldn't expect to happen in a regular mid term election with the Republican Party in power, right, That's not the way the trend usually goes totally.
And I think maybe on the national level, you could say maybe it does seem like Republicans overplayed their hand in launching this redistricting war. I don't know the exact math at this point, but it seems like the gains that Trump had demanded are pretty much wiped out, if not eaten into by you know, reactive democratic jerrymandering. But at least in Texas, it seems like they are going to get at least those three seats and you know, further solidify their dominance in our delegation.
So question number nine, what will be the dominant issues when I'm watching trying to watch college basketball in February or college football in October? What are the topics that I'm going to be so tired of hearing about because of all the commercials and ads that are being bought by the candidates like.
Good governance, transparency, just meeting the peoples.
Affordability.
I think primaries maybe like usual suspects. I think Immigration Center recorrn's going down to the border this week. That comes to mind.
The economy, Yeah, I think affordability is just going to be the buzzword of twenty twenty six, and everyone's going to paint themselves as sort of a populist fighter for the working person and the middle class. And that to me feels like what we're gonna hear a lot of okay.
And Trump, right, I mean, the one of the reasons I asked this question, I guess it's just like, is there is there is anything going to be able to break through just the Trump focus? Right? It feels to me like even you know, even when we're talking about attorney general, right, like I'm the I'm getting the mailers now, Maga May's Middleton, right, Like, even even in races that you might not think have much to do with the president,
they're talking about the president on both sides. Controller right exactly. Yeah, Yeah, I.
Mean I think for Republicans, they want to like make it seem like Trump is at the top of the ticket as much as they can, you know, especially in their primary Democrats, I don't know, I feel like I've heard less, you know, explicit anti Trump messaging, although maybe maybe Jasmine Crockett is just like the anti Trump fighter, but I don't know, I feel like I've heard a lot more focus on economic populism, and yeah, that's.
Kind of thing. It's interesting that you use the word affordability, which has of course been sort of become the buzzword for Democrats, you know, nationally. How does that play out in Texas, I think is a really interesting question. I mean, Texas has you know, traditionally been in an affordable state. There's a lot of concern about like how dozing prices and things like that possibly changing that to the extent that that that was a pretty high priority for Republicans this
past session. They passed some significant bills there, some with the support of many with the support of Democrats. Property taxes obviously play a factor in there too. I wonder how how much of a cudgel can affordability be for Democrats in Texas.
And I think also national and foreign affairs is going to affect how much candidates lean into or away from Trump.
Now it was morning.
Else was in don pr and they had a report out of Houston about how oil companies do you get oil out from Venezuela. It's gonna be great for them, but not for the Texas economy. And then that effects are revenue, and that affects mainly one of the races, the person who collects that revenue, and then that affects the other races who he gives that revenue to. I don't know. So that's gonna also be interesting how these really massive, unprecedented, you know, global actions trickle down to us.
I wonder if the finer point for Democrats here in Texas on affordability is healthcare, and if they are going to be trying to focus in on that more and to you know, again put a finer point to the affordability argument.
But yeah, and then I'm also you know, to go back to the question of like, what are the commercials I'm going to have to be watching, you know, while while trying to just not think about work and enjoy sports. I mean two years ago, twenty twenty four, it was social issues, it was you know, trans athletes and those types of things. It'll be curious to know whether that is still on people's minds two years later.
I think what I mean, I was sort of saying this with like, you know, so many things have been sort of addressed by President Trump in Texas and the state of Texas in a way that like closed law of doors to campaigning on it. One thing that has emerged in i mean the last several months or has
like reflamed is like pretty overt Islamophobia. I think is like a lot of candidates are really campaigning on that, and candidates to have like nothing to do, you know, offices that obviously have very little to do with you know, people being Muslim is getting a lot of airtime, and so I'm curious to see how much that like penetrates beyond like oh we're it an activist you know, you know, debate into like we're creating ads.
About this, like this is a top issue. I think that would be a real pivot, yeah, for sure.
And also, I mean, again going back to Trump, right, like so many of these I think Republican primaries are going to be fighting over who actually represents the MAGA movement and who like can actually carry that mantle. You know, Cornyan is doing this already in the Senate race, talking about how much she votes for him, Like, can he convince people that get people to buy that, because you know, there's his two opponents are going to be trying to
push against that as much as they possibly can. And then I guess we'll see whether Trump endorses in this race or any others. It'll be fun to watch.
I think he loves the feeling of you know, they're all waiting for me to tell her who to vote for exactly.
Okay, last question, let's play Nate Silver. What are the what are what's the percentage chance of a Democrat actually winning a statewide race.
In Texas, any.
State wide race, if if they win some random Supreme Court seat, Yeah, it counts all.
Right, any statewide seat in the scale starts at zero.
It's zero to one hundred.
Percent that they have a chance percent chance.
Yeah like yeah, like like Nate Silver's.
I'll do fourt wow whoa.
I was going to say five, whoa. Yeah.
Honestly, it's not computing.
In my head.
Zero if you want.
I don't think it's zero.
I think it's pretty low.
I like it.
It's just not competing in my head right now. I think if they were to win a state wide. See, it would be like by point five of a point.
Like half a percent.
A win is a win.
All right, Well, Kayla copped out? Where are you going to play?
I could give you like a three.
I don't know, Okay, So no one's going against five, no one's going over five.
Yeah. I mean, you know, if you had ask me on Friday, what are the percent chants that you know the US would you know, armed forces would enter Venezuela and arrest happen. You know, like there's a lot of interesting things that could completely shake things up. But I agree, it's it's it's a remote chance.
And I'll say, if we are wrong, we will have whoever wins on tripcast and we will apologize formally for doubting their electoral acumen.
Yeah, okay, great, Well, thank y'all for this. It'll be a very exciting and interesting year, a very busy year for the three of you, but looking forward to it. Also thanks to Robin Chris for our excellent new theme music, which hopefully you will hear as we play you out and we will talk to you next week.