¶ John Cornyn's Political Career Ends
🎵 Music
Welcome to the Texas Take. I'm your host Jeremy Wallace, and that thud you heard on Tuesday was the end of a lot of political careers in Texas. And you know look, we had some members of Congress going down, some incumbents aren't going back. We had some longtime members of the state legislature who are out of here. Uh but look, the biggest one of them all, clearly John Corn. Uh long career in Texas politics comes to a crashing end. And it wasn't by a little, y'all. It was by a lot.
You know, remember it wasn't that long ago. In fact, a year ago, almost this month, that I was on the lawn of the governor's mansion. I asked John Cornyn, wow, you are way behind the polls. How are you going to come back from this? And he assured me it's early. Well here, take a listen to what he said.
Well Jeremy the campaign has not really begun or it's just begun. Uh I've run in a lot of campaigns. I also looked back to see what President Trump's poll numbers looked like in twenty uh sixteen when he ran for the first time. I believe he was losing. losings of Scott Walker and uh Jeb Bush and we know what happened, how that story ended.
Clearly not much change from that standpoint. He probably lost by just about the amount that those polls were showing back then. Here's what he said on election night as you know he was seeing those results and here's his farewell.
Tonight we come we've come up short in this primary runoff. You know, a few years ago I had a friend of mine say, You know what makes God laugh? He said when we make plans हापस्पन most of my time in the Senate building the Republican Party in Texas and in these in the US Senate, and I've always supported the Republican ticket and I intend to do so again in this general election.
¶ Ken Paxton's Historic Victory
Well, of course, then there's you know Ken Paxson. Ken Paxson just did something that we haven't seen since 1970, y'all. We had a s a challenger beat an incumbent U.S. senator in a primer. Yeah, i you gotta go back into the Ralph Yarborough you know history books, y'all. He lost his race to Lloyd Benson. So, in some ways, Paxon's Lloyd Benson in this one, I guess. And we'll see how that all kind of works out. But here's Kent Paxton reveling in his victory on election night.
Tonight we just made history. I want to thank my family, my kids, my grandchildren. The Paxton Patriots and every single
person here today.
And then there's one person who I think you might know. Washington told him to abandon me and abandon the people of Texas, he didn't listen. Instead he gave his complete and total.
Endorsement.
Yeah.
President Trump is the leader of our party and his endorsement in this most power is the most powerful force in politics. And I'm honored to have his support and I look forward to working with him in the center of the first. Deliver for Texas.
¶ Texas Reporters Correct National Narrative
Yeah. Now look, y'all, there's a lot of national talking heads who have a lot of things to say about Texas politics. And it was kind of bugging me. So I thought to myself, you know what, how about we get you know get the Texas reporters together to talk about Texas politics a little bit with a little bit of depth that you know is really on the mark. So
Here, we're gonna correct a lot of homework that we all heard on the national networks. I was on some of those shows, y'all. Don't you know I wanted to correct people and I had to try to hold my lane and I couldn't say, hey, hey, hey, that's not true. We need somebody who understands the difference between sweet water and sugar land, somebody who knows the difference between Canyon Lake and Canyon, Texas, right?
That's what we got here. So that's why I brought on Gromer Jeffers from the Dallas Mary News is back on with us to help kind of clear things up for us. And John Moritz, a p pillar of Austin politics. the often American statesman's political reporter, of course. They're gonna come and help work this all out for me. Y'all, it's like we have a lot to touch on here, right? It's like there's a lot of races we could do an entire show on. But I wanna first start with this, you know, John Cornyn defeat.
Why can Paxton won? And what lies ahead for James Talarico if he's gonna do what has basically been impossible for 30 years? A Democrat winning a U.S. Senate seat in Texas. Let's figure this all out.
¶ Cornyn's Struggle with Party Shift
So first I want to start with you, Gromer, because Groomer, yeah, you had a really interesting piece about uh John Cornyn uh in his farewell uh and just kind of how the party kind of changed under him and you hit on something that I thought was really interesting in that.
about how look this was a long time coming. There's a lot of national media who sitting there going, oh, this this venerable, you know, stallion of Texas politics has gone down. It's like, whoa, whoa, whoa, back it up, y'all. It's like, We've been at these places where, you know, John Cornyn hasn't always been perfectly aligned with where the party was shifting these last, I want to say 10 years. I think it's really been that long growing.
Tell us a little bit about that, John. It's uh Gromer. Like you you you hit on this uh in your piece. Did did John Cornyn just not fit in with this party ultimately, really going long a way back further than just Ken Paxton running against him?
Yeah, you're right, Jeremy. I I wrote that he's been on borrowed time, actually. When you when you think about when he was first elected, two thousand two, I had hair. It was one of my first can campaigns in in Texas. And he ran on getting George W. Bush's judicial appointees. through the Senate. And that race it was against f the former Dallas Mayor Ron Kurt. It was just a different time. And when you look back at Corny's opponent since then,
they haven't been really major opponents, right? He has had a lot of good fortune and a lot of political skill in awarding tough primaries. and and and sort of racking up on general elections, consider in twenty twenty, he got more votes than any candidate ever in the history of Texas. Ted Cruz exceeded that in twenty twenty four, but
I I mean i but you're right. We've seen him booed at state party conventions, including twenty twenty two. I remember even before twenty twenty two at a state party convention, he sensed he was gonna get booed So they they had two or three other candidates or or elected officials come out with him, put him in the middle, and they all like step forward. And so it wouldn't be as many booze. because he had the other guys with him. But yeah, it is hard.
for any candidate to bridge all the changes in in a party. The Tea Party movement, uh the Republican Party in Texas got less institutional, less traditional, more populist. and he was able to adopt in terms of still being able to win elections. But we always had the sense, Jeremy and John, when that one guy Or when I one candidate came forward that matched up against him who had the base, who had the grassroots, who had the activists, who had in this case, MAGA.
that he would have problems with that candidate. And that's exactly what happened. So it's not really a surprise that
¶ Cornyn's Somber Farewell and Legacy
Yeah, and Groomer, I think you hit on a really important point. Like people will remember in twenty twenty two. He got booed viciously at the Houston Rep uh convention when the Republicans were having their convention there. I was there, I recorded a lot of that, you know, it's like I was right up front when it and it was just overwhelming. It was a seat. But like you said,
There were other conventions where there were b there were problems there. I remember specifically, I think it was the twenty eighteen convention in San Antonio, He comes out there and you could feel the booze starting to happen. I could start hearing it happening and he said, God bless Texas And like and you can't boo when you s you know and then he went straight into something about the Alamo and you can't boo the Alamo when you're in San Antonio.
Jeremy.
Yeah, he knew how to make sure the boo didn't crescendo, but then what we we've seen in past conventions and around other Republican grassroots people, like you mentioned, those activist based you know, Republicans.
had been feeling like he wasn't with them for a while. And I think it really started to kind of show in this race. Even like a folks who listened to the show last week, y'all will remember Like there was John Corny in San Antonio surrounded by Rick Perry and Phil Graham making this pitch in San Antonio at a retirement home.
uh trying to make this final case and it's like it was establishment on top of establishment to make a case to the establishment Republicans. And clearly that wasn't the message. John, you were over at, you know, John Cornyn's event, you know, on Tuesday night, right? And say, tell us a little bit about what was what you were seeing there and what was the feel as we watched John Cornyn have to say kind of goodbye to a really long political career.
Yeah, it it's interesting. It was a at a nice hotel in uh in downtown Austin and we get to the room and the uh you know, the little sign on the door says John Cornyn's uh election night celebration. It was not a celebration even from the start and well past the finish. uh no uh you know uh cheap white wine uh n no a lot no uh you know party loyalists hanging around. It was reporters, uh T V cameras. a couple of campaign hands, um, just basically
uh and just sort of waiting for what we all sensed was gonna happen, uh although I don't think any of us sensed that just the magnitude near two to one, uh became the margin. And uh, you know Uh uh Cornyn uh in all the years I've covered him and I go all the way back to nineteen ninety eight with Jo uh John Cornyn, the uh the year of uh his uh first run for attor only run for attorney general.
You never saw you've never seen that man raise his voice in public. You never seen him get too emotional. But he was about as somber as uh a as I've ever seen him. He had his wife and his two daughters with him. Um, you know, if you want to give him props, uh, you know, a a lot of uh a lot of the coverage has been, you know, John Corner got the hell beat out of him, which he did. Uh but but take our hats off to him. He was gracious.
He didn't say anything about rigged elections. He didn't grouse that the President didn't uh uh reward his loyalty Um, he didn't mention uh Paxton's name, but he did say he would uh support the tickets that have always re uh supported the Republican ticket and will do so again. Uh, you know, so let's uh let's sort of give him that. And and also let's go b back to something Grohmer said about two thousand two. I'll take it to two nineteen ninety eight. He beat
What was then the insurgent right wing candidate, a guy named Tom Paukin. I'm su I'm sure I'm sure you guys remember that name. Oh yeah. Um who was in a feud with uh gov then Governor Bush because he didn't think Governor Bush and Senator K. Billy Hutchison were near conservative enough, but Carl Rove basically said, No, this is our guy
He's gonna he's gonna carry the banner. He looked like central casting for a US senator. He was in his forties, not even deep into his forties. Hair was as white as it it was on Tuesday night.
And uh
¶ Trump's Endorsement and Cornyn's Demise
And and that's a sort of like where he came from. He was always that establishment guy, uh visually. temperamentally uh uh governing. I mean what did him in, and I think you mentioned it in your uh most recent newsletter, uh Jeremy, was that vote uh or or his involvement to get the gun bill passed. Which, you know, everybody says, you know, can't we walk across the aisle and get stuff done? Well, he walked across the aisle and got stuff done and it done him in.
And maybe it's like, you know, and I I wrote this in the Texas Tech newsletter earlier this week, but you know, I I think he lost this race three years ago and he just didn't know it. Uh y y'all may have been on that same call I was with him when, you know,'cause it was during the session. I I you know, ducked out in one of the hallways in the in the Texas Senate and I got on the call with Corny and Cornyn said Uh uh Donald Trump's time had passed up.
Uh, and he said, you know, he loses every time he's on the ballot. Look, we've lost the House, we've lost the Senate, you know, we need to switch. You know, this was when, you know, Trump was trying to make his his first comeback here, right? You know, he's trying to run for president again. And Look, the one thing we know about Trump is like it a lot of people question his intelligence and what but he's not a fool. He certainly remembers what Cornyn said.
That was a critical point in the campaign. And so he was never fully on board with John Cornyn, I think, at that point. He's had problems with other politicians. You know, Marco Rubio uh obviously was able to mend those fences. Ted Cruz to a degree was able to mend the expense. Yeah, right. Like there's so many people that have gone against Trump and been able to m you know, fix that up.
But the problem for Cornyn in this whole thing was he showed that disloyalty to Trump and was very bold about it, more b boldly than maybe a lot of other Republican senators were at that point. And there's no way Trump was gonna forget that, particularly
When Donald Trump is playing golf with Ken Pac, When Ken Paxton is filing the you know the election challenge to the twenty twenty, you know, presidential election on his behalf to the Senate, when no you know, lawyer in their right mind was willing to file it, Paxton's like, yeah, I'll do it. He files the challenge. Uh it was Paxon who was one of the speakers at the January sixth rally before
You know, obviously we all know the storming of the Capitol, right? It's like over and over again, Paxon was in the Trump universe. He went to Marilago to particularly court. uh uh uh uh uh uh uh uh Trump to make sure he wouldn't endorse Cornyn at the pressure of some in the White House and some in the uh US Senate. So you see like I think Cornyn set the stage
you know, three years ago. And the problem is he just could not do enough to win back Trump, no matter how much he said good things about him, m how much he he tried to bend a knee to him and, you know, do all the right things. Trump never forgot it and you saw it in the endorsement message, right? Like even in the message he's saying, you know, Cornyn wasn't there with me when, you know, it was important. It's like he remembered it. It never went away.
Yeah, Corny had liked to say he was with them ninety nine point three percent of the time on votes, but it was the point seven.
Yeah.
Right.
I think I remembered.
Yeah. And and and John and Jeremy, it must be very frustrating too, because if you believe the reports, right? Trump was close to endorsing Cornyn after March third, and just think what what that would have been. And and I I'll give Paxton and his forces credit to be able to stop that and then reverse it the way that they did and and this whole Save Act stuff. I'll be willing to step aside if you pass the Save Act and all it or
and all of that kind of thing, right? That was that was really, really skill politics right there because it played it it gave enough time for Trump t to say and and I think Trump said this publicly uh or privately, I understand that MAGA is with Ken Paxton. And so when he thought about it over the the following week
Jeremy was like, Yeah, Corner has never been with me. He's a nice guy. I like what he's done done for me. I like that he posed uh for the picture, posted the picture of him reading my book, The Art of the Deal. I like all the nice stuff he said. But when it counted, he told Jeremy Wallace that my time had passed. Right?
Right. It was like it was this it's just one of those things where I think you just can't put some things back in the box no matter how much you try in politics. It's like and I think Cornyn thought he could maybe pull a Marco Rubio, you know, and maybe he could pull a Lindsey Graham. You know, those guys have been able to reinvent themselves as these vicious critics of Trump into close allies. How do you do the how do you get there?
And I think that's the thing, you know, Corny just never could get that final egg look against a lot of Republicans, he may have been able to pull that off, but Paxton had already built a relationship with Trump that was just too strong. So he was asking Trump to vote and to to endorse against your golf budget.
Or not golf buddy, but he played golf is like endorse against the guy who filed the challenge to the twenty twenty presidential election on your behalf. I want you to go against that and go with me instead who said your time's up.
¶ Paxton's Cultivation of Trump's Support
That's what you know Trump was hearing that whole time. And here's the thing. I think Trump and knew he had this over Cornyn. And so why does he hold back that endorsement? He dragged that thing out so he could keep Cornet in his camp. And then he sees that Paxson is leading in the polls. Look, Cornyn's polsters
uh are Trump's pollsters. Like and there's no doubt information was going back and forth. Cornyn had to know what the numbers looked like. Uh so did Trump. And so I think Trump was sitting there going, Whoa, whoa, whoa. If Paxson's gonna win this thing, I don't want him win this without my endorsement. I want to look like I own that guy a little bit. And you heard it even in Paxson saying, hey, it it was Trump all the way. Trump's gonna have this loyal soldier in the US Senate, a US Senate.
That is starting to get a little grumbly, right? They're starting to kind of push back a little bit. You know, w now with Cassidy, you know, Bill Cassidy from Louisiana, you know, in the mix with Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski and Rand Paul, the numbers are growing. But he knows he might have Paxton in there, right? He he could have Paxton as his guy going into this to help defend him. And I love what you said there about uh Ken Paxton, he won this race maybe on March 4th.
Right. When he was able to stop that endorsement from going out.'Cause I I think it was right. It's like, uh I I love talking about this because I did talk to Blazing Golia. He's the chief financial officer of the state of Florida. Well, I used to cover him when he was a state rep. Uh I called him up and he goes, yeah, Ken Paxson's here right now at Mar-a-Lago uh with me.
It's like and so he was clearly Paxson was putting in the work, which is a big deal. One of the criticisms of Paxon is that he's not as aggressive, is not always working out there. But here he was making sure he was putting himself at you know, random Lincoln Day dinners uh at Mar-a-Lago just so he could be in the room in case Trump
was gonna be there. And I think that's a work ethic that Paxson was able to kind of show really in a clarity that I haven't always seen in his career. But that probably helped win this race ultimately in the end for him.
¶ Paxton's Path to General Election
You know what's gonna be i y int interesting going forward is Paxton is very adroit at uh appealing to that party base and that Trump base, but um that ain't gonna win you the general election in Texas. And uh w uh he has not and correct me if I'm wrong, uh, Gromer or Jeremy, he has not ever had to uh tax center. He has never led a ticket before. And the one uh close election that he had was when Beto was leading the ticket and Justin Nelson got just as close, nearly
to Ken Paxton as uh as Beto got to Ted Cruz. So that's kind of what I'm looking at as as we go forward is how does he appeal to what what what's that old cliche about the game is one between the forty yard lines? Um, Paxson's lived on the twenty yard line, his own twenty, and it served him just fine. How does he get to the forty and fifty and and the other forty? Uh I'd love to hear y'all y'all's take on that.
Yeah, Gromer, I definitely want to hear you on this. Like, you know, Paxon's a creature from your backyard up there. Tell us a little bit. Can' Paxon be the guy who can now, you know, pick up somebody in the middle, an independent E type Republican?
No. He that's not in him and he won't he won't do it. I think he's gonna try to win this by Showing that Talo Rico or or trying to show that Talo Rico is not in step with average Texas voters. They're already starting it, right? They're they're he's gonna try to make Talo Rico into this liberal weirdo.
who uh these are their words, who doesn't eat meat and of course Telerico is not a vegan, but they're calling him that. They're talking about his o old clips about six genders and and and God being non binary, all the the the border being a should be a front porch, all of that kind of stuff they're gonna throw at'em.
Uh and Colo Rico's gonna have to find a way to deal with that, right? Just like Democrats needed to find a way to deal with the transgender uh attacks Republicans were levying on them. So I he's gonna like remain who he is and rely on somebody like Greg Abbott to be the sort of guy who goes for the middle. and brings out middle voters for everybody basically and hopes that he he can survive that way. Republicans, as you guys know, have a structural advantage in these electorates.
the h the job is harder for Tal Rico because not only does he have to get South Republicans and independents, but he has to maximize the democratic base, especially in communities of color. Faxton is hoping that he won't be able to do that to the mat.
¶ Talarico's Path to Victory
and that he can still be himself and pull this off. We'll see what happens. But it's an opportunity for Democrats because you guys, the the thing is, MACA won big, right? On Tuesday, but Democrats got pretty much the statewide ticket that they dreamed about. With Paxton, Mays Middleton, both French. So we'll see if they can do something with it.
Let me let me underscore a key point that you just mentioned there,'cause I wanna you know, uh the the Texas uh public policy polling no not uh the Texas Pol political Project what is that University of Texas poll?
Yeah.
go they're great. They're actually one of the few polls I do enjoy out there. Uh they do a good job. And one I was really interested I used a little bit of their poll when I was talking to uh uh uh CNN earlier this week. I I was pointing out the fact that look
You know, in the primary, you know, it's like you gotta understand Republican voters, you know, even with this war going on, even with four dollar gas, are still 77% favorable with Trump. But if you look at the independent number, it's 17%. You can see why uh the minute Cornyn went down, Tallerica was sent putting out a uh a social media post saying, Hey Cornyn people, I'm your guy. He knows that independent moderate Republican
is not going to swallow everything Trump says when we're still paying four dollars for gas at the pump. If we're still doing that in Labor Day, you can see where the the the the seas start to open up and you can see where there's a pathway for Tal Rico. And that's a question that's been bugging me. I'm hearing on national new talk shows all the time. They're talking about does Talo Rico have a shot here?
And and I'm and what I hate is when people go off gut. You know, they go, Oh, uh, Democrat hasn't won before, so it's not gonna happen. Well well. Well, okay, look y'all, I wanna bring some numbers into this equation. When you have Maritz uh Gromer and me on, we're gonna tell you why there's a possibility. It's not just gonna be on a feeling or like, oh, this campaign has a a cool sign, so it's gonna happen. No, no, no.
It's like you have to do a couple of key things in this. Remember, I think the math shows there's a possibility here with a big asterisk. And what I mean is that You know, remember Beto Rourke loses the US Senate race to Ted Cruz by two hundred and nineteen thousand votes. I'm not gonna give you a lot of math, but just remember two hundred and nineteen thousand votes.
We've added two million voters since that time, and one million of those are along the blue spine. That's that stretch of I-35 from Laredo through Dallas. picks up all of our urban diversifying core. So there's a heck of a lot more people who have moved along this blue spine that says that 219,000 margin that he has to close.
It exists out there if you can do it. But here's the thing. And you touched on this earlier, Gromer. It's like he has got to repair that damage with the Jasmine Crockett supporters. who thought Jasmine Crockett was gonna get, you know, forty, fifty percent turnout in Houston and Dallas communities that we typically don't see that number. That was a key part to it where I think he still has to figure out what's he gonna have to do. He can't just win those people up. He's got to get them excited.
You know, how do you get that's what Jasmine Crockett was offering. I'm gonna give you somebody who's excited about coming out to vote for this ticket for the first time since maybe Barack Obama.
And and Jeremy, here's what bothered me about the whole argument that that Jasmine Crockett and Talerico had over electability and all of that kind of stuff and how you win in Texas. You just summed up how you gotta really do both. you gotta get uh independents, soft Republicans, persuadable voters, but you've also gotta go at the urban areas, the area you just described, that is kind of your base, right?
And you have to be able to turn it out and a lot of it means turning out communities of color. They powered a a a great deal of the growth in Texas, right? And so if Talo Rico has a nice start with Latino voters, right? Uh, but he has to continue to get them excited. But you're right, repairing the the the damage and his real damage. that was done with Jasmine Crockett supporters and that argument Talarico supporters made Harshly in some instances.
that that that Crockett could not win and what that meant in terms of a black woman running statewide, they never really got that. a lot of uh Taler Rico supporters. So you gotta go back and make sure not just that that that Crockett is on board and she's gonna say what she needs to say as we approach November. She's gonna do the right thing publicly, right? But you gotta underneath the surface be able to go into those communities. I know he's trying, and and get them excited.
And whether it's an anti Trump message and the message your existing message, you still have to sell it to voters that you maybe you don't ordinarily be in a a central Texas uh white democrat, maybe you don't go to those areas all the time, but you gotta get down there and do the work.
¶ Talarico's Authentic Campaign Challenge
And you hit on a ri you hit on a key point here. There's an authenticity that has to come out of it. It can't be a token appearance here and there. And the thing is the Tal Rico campaign's doing a great job. and trying to understand that authenticity, you know, problem that Democrats have had, particularly in South Texas with Latino voters. I love his hire of Chuck Roca. Chuck Roque is this guy from Tyler, Texas. He bleeds Texas. He knows his he knows how to communicate.
to Hispanics in a genuine natural way that isn't like some, hey, you know, New York told us to do this and we'll win. You know, it's like he's not just gonna talk about border issues and immigration. He's gonna figure out a way to kind of get in communities. He's worked on a lot of campaigns
nationally, but it's crazy how few Texas Democrats have used him in big statewide races. And that's really important this because if there's one thing that Beto Rourke underperformed in, it was down in the valley. If you look at his numbers compared to Hillary Clinton when she was on the ballot, he actually did worse than Hillary Clinton in some of those areas. That 219,000 vote margin of defeat to Ted Cruz is probably in the valley that year. If he could have been
somebody that connected in a different way with that Latino community. And Tallarico's showing that, right? And now he's got to figure out, okay, this is what makes it complicated for Democrats, right? Like, okay, I I got to do that, but I also have to walk and chew gum at the same time, which means getting Jasmine Crockett.
bring her in, you know, br uh or at least bring in the people who can help him figure out how do I make sure people in the black community are hearing my message in a way that you know, it feels authentic and real for them. I know you don't have to change your message. You just gotta make sure you're doing it the right way and get the right people around you to kinda help you make that
sale, right? And I and and and this is where I want to get back to you, John. It's like one of the things that Beto Rourke did I think that was key to that twenty eighteen race was that He got out of politics and became a cultural thing, right? It's like there was a point where like we're at that point early in the campaign where look the only people really paying attention are the people who are really interested in politics.
But when we get past Labor Day, you need regular human beings who vote sometimes to whatever, know who you are. And that's what Beto work was able to pull out, right? Even if you weren't involved in politics, you're seeing his bumper sticker around, there's this weird energy. I was going to events where now people weren't even voters and they just wanted to go to a beto rally for the sake of it, right?
And you're just like, I've never seen that in politics expo, John. It's like, does Calarico have the bones to do that, to get out of just politics and reach beyond into becoming a cultural thing that can win those independents and moderates?
Well, you know, Beto has not used his skateboard uh in a while, so maybe Tallerigo can borrow that and uh whiz across a uh a Waterberger parking lot and get me get the media up there. obviously being facetious there. I don't think we'll see uh Telarico on a skateboard or anything like that. He's got a he's got his own brand. It's different from Beto. Um one of the things I tell people who are
curious but not like ed up with politics is like Beta was probably the more fun candidate to cover, you know, for some of the reasons we just hit on. Talerico's uh stock and trade is um, i is is the image of someone new, someone who's breaking a mold, you know, whether it's the Christianity thing. um, you know, young uh generational uh thing. That that's kind of where he is selling himself. We don't really know a whole lot about his personality. Uh the podcast he did
uh you know, they got a lot of traction about the fact that he's uh he he's he's he's got a steady girlfriend that he that he's committed to. That was new. Um uh uh i that individual is not part of a campaign. You don't see photos of the two of them together or anything like that. You know, maybe we'll see something like that going forward.
¶ Campaign Authenticity and Texas Diversity
Well, I wanna wanna circle uh back to um uh the Jasmine Crockett uh challenge that uh Tal Rico does face. Um yesterday in Houston, State Senator Rodney, uh former State Senator Rodney, I was now a county commissioner, he was down there acting as a surrogate, uh uh uh r r Rodney uh Ellis came up to Dallas and
for Jasmine Crockett's launch uh back in December and and made no bones about the fact that, you know, he was Team Crockett all the way. Um he's got that uh a lot of authenticity. I don't know that um you know, he's been in politics since the eighties and nineties. I don't know if he's like the wave of the future so much. Uh but he's probably a credible messenger, at least in
in the Houston communities that he's represented over the years, both in in the legislature and at uh at the county level. So I just wanna make sure we didn't overlook our old buddy Rodney.
Of course, yeah, like and and there's a guy who listens to the show, so it's important to make sure Rodney knows we're talking about Rodney'cause he's gonna hear it.
Yeah, he might be one of your guests going down the line.
Well so see here here's one of the here's the biggest problem I have potentially with the Tal Rico campaign and the thing that can undo it all. The thing that I think really kinda you know, every time somebody says, Does he have a shot, it's like, okay, the thing is he can't be
a cautious paint by numbers type candidate. It's like, you know, there's an auth again, uh the word authenticity is like has to be there. You have to campaign naturally in the state. You can't turn into call and all right. You know, where you're just like you're going by a book that somebody in, you know, the Democratic senatorial campaign committee gave me and I'm just gonna use this.
I'm gonna have a lot of outsiders who don't understand Texas, right? You gotta be authentic about this. And I get a little bit worried about you know James Tallerico and as he's his campaign gets bigger, it's like is he gonna be able to keep the authenticity that made him? interesting to begin with. The thing that made him rise out of the Texas legislature and become, I think, a giant killer in a way,'cause he did beat Jasmine Crockett, who I didn't think he was gonna beat. Like
He proved that he has some natural chops to be able to pull some of this off. I just hope that natural like feel to him doesn't get painted over by like 50 consultants. You know, but you need to be a little bit more schooled than Beto, right? Beto had like it's like Beto's biggest strength was his greatest weakness, which is like a Greek mythology thing, right? It's like his wild go wherever he wants, you know, go all instinct is what got that race so close.
but also probably did him in a little'cause he couldn't, you know, you know, he he he wasn't a guy who was gonna be structured. Is there a place in between where Talo Rico can be structured but still be legitimately authentic to Texas voters who will be turning on the TV for the first time and going, hey, who's this Telarico guy in September?
It it has to be a Texas campaign. It can't be a campaign. I mean, it's gonna be a campaign driven by Washington and New York consultants. I mean it is what it is, right? But it's gonna have to have a Texas feel. And that's where Beto and eighteen uh that's why he thrived. Because you can say what you want. It was it was just Beto and you know, a and um you know and Cynthia and and and and and and company. And and all of those folks, you know, f carrying around selfie sticks and and
and just doing their thing on the road. And it was text he changed up his speeches depending on the audience. It was a show, right? He didn't give the same canned speech over and over again. uh, you know, depending on the audience, you would get a little local flavor in that speech. And so uh that's what it has to be. It has to be a Texas campaign, it has to be authentic. and it has to give Texans the feeling that
they're doing this, that they're part of this movement, that they're gonna win or lose, not like some, you know, some Washington movement. And that's what he has to do.
One of the things that's uh I think important to point out w when we talk about a Texas campaign This ain't Texas nineteen seventy nine. This is a whole different Texas. And I think Telarigo has been pretty good at recognizing that it's not guys in cowboy hats and pickup trucks. all together.
There are some vegans, John.
Yeah, yeah. Yeah, we've even got vegans in Texas.
Yeah.
Yeah, egg and cheese. But but but that's uh you know now I've completely lost my train of thought on this. But uh but but but Texas is not a stereotype. Somebody asked me about uh a Texas accent and I asked them which one? Because that's the has has become uh uh you know, you go to the valley there's a Texas accent, but it but it ain't the one you're gonna hear on Hollywood.
And you you know, and probably not the one that might be understood uh by these consultants outside of Texans who have that playbook that y'all mentioned, uh, you know, check the boxes and and uh i and and find your way to the winning w the winner's circle that way.
Yeah, it's interesting. Like you know, i in the in the hearse environment we live in now. So yeah, people can still say stuff in Dallas that never gets heard in Houston. Uh and you can say something in San Antonio that nobody in the panhandle ever heard. And a lot of campaigns like miss out on that. You know, they they um they don't understand that there's such a differentiation. You know, there's a reason.
When you know, Texas was created, when John Tyler signed the papers to make Texas a s a state. It was going to be five different states because that's how big we are and how different our regions really are, right? They nobody could conceive of this monster beast. We even know how diverse we were gonna be, right? Like when you're in South Texas, you are so far away from the pain handle. It's not just twelve hours, y'all. It is like
¶ Attorney General Race and MAGA Influence
uh much more than that, uh, beyond time and space type thing, right? Uh look, uh uh th th we could talk about this forever, but let's switch over to a couple of other key races here. Because I like I really want to hit on there's a couple of big careers that came to a close, a couple of upsets here and there. Uh but one I wanted to kind of get into a little bit was, you know, sticking with the Republican theme, the attorney general's race.
Uh that felt like a mini Cornyn versus uh Paxton race in that you had two guys with you know, that was relatively well known in Texas, or at least within a w with within Republican voters, trying to say, I'm the more Trump candidate. We didn't have an endorsement that ever came down in this race, Chip Roy versus Mays Middleton. Anything surprise y'all about that race? I'll start with you, John.
Um Chip Roy has probably got as much name ID as any member of Congress, uh uh in the Texas delegation. Didn't do you know, it did not accrue to his benefit. He's also um like you talk about authentic. I mean, who's more authentic Texas than
than than Chip Roy. And um Maze Middleton to a lot of voters I would imagine is more enigna enigmatic. He he's still a young man at uh forty four. He certainly I mean He y y you could put a an overlay visual template on him and James Talarico and not be able to tell the difference. um, you know, in in their in their t in their temperament and visage. Um uh Mays Milton's did have a lot of money
Uh he was smart enough to get that money spent early. A ton of money came Chip Roy's way very, very late and probably very, very too late. to kinda help him. That was the um the the money from uh Alex Fairley, the um deep pocketed uh uh Amarillo businessman, oil man, uh whose uh um been underwriting Republican and and very hard right campaigns for a while. So th the margin on Chip Roy, uh, kinda uh surprised me and um Uh and and we'll also want to see what um
Uh what the battle of the two senators. We got uh uh Senator Johnson on the Democratic side versus Senator Middleton on the Republican side and see how that comes out in the in the general. I think we're still a Republican generic. state. I don't know if I'll you know, the and nobody's talking about a blue wave that could go all the way down the ballot yet, but you know, we shall see.
Um but I think that'll be a pretty good uh matchup intellectually, stylistically, and obviously partisanly on on uh on that going forward.
Yeah, remember early on, Gromer, there was a point where I think Chip Roy he's I think he said it on Dallas TV, but I know he said something similar to me, which is, you know, it's like he thought there was a chance he could win the primary outright back in March. He thought he could get to fifty percent.
And not only did he not do that, he couldn't win the runoff. You know, it's like here's a guy. I kind of almost feel like, you know, they didn't see Maze Middleton coming uh and turning into what he did.
No, they didn't and and quite frankly, May uh Mays Middleton acknowledged that th those polls were real, that he had that ground to make up. You know, I I think it was the name change. that that really helped. Calling himself MAGA Maze Middleton and a in a prime in a Texas Republican primary and a runoff that what had what seven or eight percent single digit runoff for for turnout? I I think that worked for him because let's face it, uh he's not well known throughout the state. Not yet.
Yeah.
And you know you got those code You know, it it it helps. Uh a and you you mentioned Trump didn't endorse in that race, right? I mean uh so there you are basically announcing that you're part of Trump's movement. And I and I think the commercials that this is Corny had to face this too, some of Chi Chip Roy's remarks about MAGA and and all of that. Exactly. Come back to bite'em, right? But it is really MAGA had a big night. With Paxton, Middleton, Beaufrench, big night.
¶ Generational Shift in Texas Leadership
Yeah, one of the things I liked about like the I love seeing thematics start developing in all the races. And so one of the things, you know, with you know, Cornyn obviously a creature of the establishment. You know, Chip Roy has only been in Congress since twenty eighteen, but he's been in politics a long time, right? He, you know, worked for John Cornyn's staff at one point.
He was Ted Cruz's chief of staff. He was in the AG's office. He's been part of the network for a really long time. And then, you know, d take the leap over to the Democratic side. Al Green's another one of those guys who's been in the United States Congress for twenty years. And in each one of those races you had these younger people, not by a ton in the case of Ken Paxton, but you still have them making this case going, It's time for change, for something fresher.
You know, vote against the swamp, whatever you think that is. You know, uh Menafee cur uh Christian Menaphy wasn't saying that against Al Green, but he was saying it's time for new, you know, f you know, leaders in Texas politics.
And like you can see there was a thematic building where I think the, you know, the older generation is like they they kept trying to talk about their experience and they know how to get things done in Congress. But in runoff elections with partisans, they don't want to hear that. It's like they don't care about that. They wanna they want fresher faces. I've been voting for this guy for 20 years, even if he's been good for me. It's been 20 years.
You saw Ken Paxton really drive that home. That like the d this just may be that kind of cycle where, you know, finally all those years of having the old guys like Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell and having these images of, you know, older politicians always winning.
You know, it's like maybe go with them younger voices that can be part of the next generation. That's where I think Mace Middleton was able to kind of feel like he was different, even if he didn't have to say it, right? Like here's this new guy, I don't know him. Chip Roy, I know he's part of the system in some way, even if he's saying I'm not, right? So it's just that
Yeah. We have not had a generational um election in Texas. Maybe since Bush and Perry uh all those years ago. I mean, you you know, Corny's been on the ballot since the nineties, eighties if you count when he was a local judge. Um, you know, uh uh o obviously on the on the D side, Talarico and perhaps even t uh she's a little bit older, but she's still still pretty uh
Fresh uh uh Gina Hina Hosa. I mean th th this has has the opportunity to be a uh uh yesterday versus tomorrow uh type of a theme just depending on what w what What other background noise is gonna be driving the uh the narrative uh uh
¶ Dallas Delegation and Allred's Comeback
I wanna swing back to you, Gromer, on like so uh we would be remiss not to talk about Colin Alred did complete his uh you know I guess comeback tour, I'll call it. He was only out of Congress for a hot second, but uh but he was able to win this runoff election. That was
That was pretty impressive also because there was a theory that the small turnout would help Julie Johnson who is currently in Congress. and had uh strong connections with some of the institutional party folks, not just locally, but the King Jeffries and all of that. But what always showed her was that All that doesn't matter in a in district race if you have
the neighborhoods and the people behind you and he is very popular in in North Dallas, in that Dallas County district. He just is. Went to Hillcrest High School, former NFL p player, bail or standout. uh flip that uh thirty two seat from Pete Sessions. So and and then universal name recognition because of his statewide run in twenty twenty four. Uh that is interesting, but let me just say this. Redistricting really took a toll.
in in North in North Texas for Democrats. When you look at the the carnage, Mark Vesey is leaving after this term. Jasmine Crockett ran for Senate. She's out. Julie Johnson is out. So though Alrid is going back and and that's gonna be exciting for him, he's already told me that uh Hakeem Jeffries is gonna have to quote earn my vote, you know. So but They're gonna lose that District thirty two seat.
And um and that's that's significant. And so while always gonna feel good about going back to Congress, Democrats will see uh feel that net loss because of redistricting. And let me just say one more thing.
¶ Senior Democrats Exit, Leadership Void
in wave elections, you need to make sure you have good candidates up and down the ballot. It probably would have been a good idea to fill a very strong candidate in Congressional District twenty four where Beth Van Dyne is. And in any area where you can sort of maximize them turnout just in case it's a big wave alone.
Well and like and and John, this a perfect transition to you on, you know, like w we're seeing the Dallas delegation really kinda change a lot. Al Green going down, obviously Sheila Jackson Lee is no longer in the Houston delegation. The Democrats in Houston took, you know, got a lot younger and a lot less experienced.
uh Lloyd Doggett, you know, a staple. He was the the veteran of you know he and Al Green, you know, it's like it looked like they were gonna be two of our deans of our delegation. Uh Lloyd Doggett's career is, you know, coming to a close because of redistricting.
Uh and Henry Quayar could be next up. You know, they drew his seat to be more competitive. I still think he's gonna pull this off somehow. Uh he's just a survivor and people people in South Texas know that name. But But there's a potential of all three of those guys, you know, well we know Green is not coming back and we know Lloyd Dock is not coming.
Yeah.
If Quayar doesn't come back, our most senior Democrat is Joaquin Castro. It's who just got in Congress, it feels like, right? So all of a sudden This place that once had, you know, people like Sheila Jackson Lee and Eddie Bernice Johnson and these longtime names who c knew where the levers of power are. It's like we have a lot less of that, you know, and our seniority r starts with
maybe Joaquin Castro to have to be the kind of leader of a delegation of a lot of newer faces, uh, and people who may not know how to get like things done, you know, with the next speaker or if the Republicans are still in control. So
And Jeremy, from a bipartisan perspective, you were losing Corny in the Senate where all the all the local governments, the chambers, the the the people who needed resources and money. They knew that you went to Corny or K. Billy Hutchinson and now Ted Cruz to some degree. It's gonna be something to see like how where how people approach Paxon in order to get stuff.
Right. Uh but you mentioned Castro who uh uh He he was like he he was like the statewide candidate ev that never ran every cycle going back to the middle two thousands. Um But but but st sticking in Congress could could have been like a good career move. Say the uh the the Democrats uh take the House, which I think a lot of the pundits are saying is still gonna happen despite all this redistricting.
That's going going on. He's the dean of the Texas uh uh delegation in the Democratic run house. You know, what is he gonna be chairman of? Probably whatever he wants.
Well and here's what's crazy. I I love what you said there because you know, think about that thirteen billion dollars that they were able to get into the budget last year for Texas to get reimbursed for border security. That was John Cornyn, that was Chip Roy, that was Michael McCall, all guys who aren't coming back. It's like if those three guys aren't in the United States Congress and working their corners.
in they're different ways. Like they I went they weren't always on the same page. They had to do different things. But they ultimately all had to kind of play this key role and use their seniority in ways that could get that money somehow tucked in there.
All of them are gone.
It's like who does Greg Abbott call the next time when we're in one of those spots? Ted Cruz, like look, he's his seniority has grown, but he doesn't have the same kind of relationships with some of these people in the United States Senate. That's a hint. Like some people just don't like Ted Cruz now, you know, in the United States Senate. So but Cornyn had ability like he could get the establishment to help him out.
The activist the see, and it shows you, Jeremy, the the agenda of the activist uh voters who dominate the primary process, much different than the general election voters and the voters who have to really rely on Washington being a place that operates where they can go and get something, get things that they need.
¶ Voting Dynamics and Cornyn's Swift Fall
Yeah, voters aren't very strategic sometimes. We go off our passions and feelings. Oh, I want to have a beer with that guy. But here's the thing. R by going with John Corn uh losing John Cornet and maybe having Ken Paxton or James Talerico. is that you're going to end up in a situation where you go from somebody who could get a call with John Thune at any minute to a guy who might have to set an appointment.
You know, just like n and no matter who it is, right? It's like it it's just a different kind of set of scenarios. And which is a great way to point out, like, you know, I won't I wanna close the show and recognizing that John Cornyn was in office for a long time. He was on my first ballot. when I was a voter in San Antonio as just a young pup, y'all. It's like I remember John Cornyn's beginning, you know, it's like
He he was a he was a waiter at the steak and ale that my me and my family used to go to a lot way beyond, you know, when you know Corny was there. But so I've known this guy for a long time and it's crazy to see where we
Did you say John Corning was a waiter at the
Yeah. At the State Nick in San Antonio. Over by the airport. Yeah, off board ten. I know exactly where that thing is. Uh so he has a long relationship with San Antonio politics, particularly. That's where he kind of rose up, as we mentioned earlier. But look at how quickly this turned on him. Here's a guy that was, you know, by even his accounts, he was two votes away from becoming the Senate leader.
You know, the one of the most powerful spots in all of the American government. He went from that to not winning his primary in just about we're talking maybe thirteen months. That is a shocking quick. you know, turnaround to go from the king uh to nothing. You know, from d being like the star on the on the uh on the basketball team, right? To go from being like, Oh, I'm about to be Tim Duncan to oh, whoa, whoa, we just put you on waivers.
Ha ha ha.
you're no longer going to
Does he does he win this race if he's if he had won the Senate leader?
Election.
Maybe not. You know, I I think that's a really good I think I think the mood of the voters is still the same, right? I think those historical structural problems that Cornyn had with the base. was gonna be there even if he was the most powerful person in the United States Senate.
I think, you know, you saw that happen with Mitch Mitch McConnell. Like even though like you had people in Kentucky who wanted to change horses, you have one of the elements of power in the entire American government and you're gonna give it up for a rookie.
because you don't like how he's been as like if you're just thinking strategically, who can get the Ike dike built? Cornyn has a better shot at getting that done than certainly Ken Paxton will have. Ken Paxton's gonna spend the next two years
uh trying to figure out how the Senate works. It's not an easy process. Ask Ted Cruz. It took Ted Cruz a good two and a half or a a a term and a half to kind of really kind of get in the mode of like, okay, how do I still be me and still get some things done? Right. It's like he's gotten a lot more effective as a legislator as he's learned how to pick and choose battles.
¶ Concluding Thoughts and Future Outlook
and when to kind of team up with Democrats. Yeah. Those liberal Democrats. Just this week I see Ted Cruz, you know, teaming up with Maria Cantwell, the Democrat from Washington State, to try to help fix college sports, right? Like That Ted Cruz in 2012, y it's hard to imagine him, right? You know, but here he is trying to figure out ways. Well, y'all, this has been a blast to go through
uh uh another one of these like we gotta get a nickname for this group here. I don't know what will be at some point. We're taking requests that if y'all come up with a cool nickname, you know, send it to us. We'll add it to the program.
Uh thanks a lot, Gromer Jeffers, for joining the show. You know, check out his work at the Dallas Morning News, y'all. It's like he had some really good insightful columns. That one on John Corney, you definitely want to check that out. And John Moritz is just everywhere, y'all. It's like, you know, he had a really good piece.
on uh James Talarico that you wanna kinda look at and just kinda how this guy he had this great quote in there from Brandon Rodinghouse about how he this guy looks like a choir boy. But he's much more of a boxer and a puncher than you can possibly go check out that story. John Morris, awesome American statesman, really good piece.
And y'all, this has been a wild run, right? You know, this you know, since last October, I think we've been all burning on fumes here trying to get to this point. A lot has happened in Texas politics. I might take a week off here of the Texas take and come back with y'all on the uh flip side of things.
But be sure to check out the Texas Tech newsletter. That comes out every day. It's free and easy to sign up for. You love that, right? I don't have to pay a nickel and you get to hear my insights every single day, including the up and the down of the day. Who's up or down in Texas politics?
You know Ken Paxton, you know, was the up yesterday, right? If you were looking at this newsletter, I might make him the up all week long, just because this was such a huge victory. But anyhow, thanks a lot, y'all, for listening to the Texas Take, and we will talk to y'all soon.
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