Is Trump is making Democrats more competitive in South Texas?

Welcome to the Texas Take. I'm your host Jeremy Wallace, and today we're going to dive into something that may be at the root of President Donald Trump's cratering approval ratings, particularly with Latino voters in Texas. Fifty percent of Texans now disapprove of the job that Trump has done during his second term in the White House, according to this new Texas politics project poll that just came out this week. And that number's even worse with Hispanic voters.

Trump promised on the campaign trail, even after taking office, to focus on deporting the worst of the worst, going after the criminals. You remember all that. Here's him talking about the immigration crackdown in Minnesota earlier this year from the White House lawn just as he was headed to Michigan for a big rally. On Minnesota we have taken out killers, rapists, drug dealers, people from mental institutions that came in illegally, all of them, most of them came in illegally.

But there's obviously a lot more to that story, right? An ice detention facility in Dilly, Texas has become an infamous holding pen for, among others, a nine year old spelling bee contestant from New Mexico? a pre K kid from Minnesota, and a trio of teenage mariachi musicians from McGallan. Is this what Trump was talking about?

those have become the faces beaming off satellites around the country and the globe as examples of what the Trump mass deportation roundup has looked like in reality. We are going to get into how this is affecting us in three key ways.

First, our politics. It may be ruining everything the Republicans did to redraw congressional districts in Texas. Races that shouldn't be competitive in South Texas are much more competitive right now and pose a bigger danger to Republicans, largely because of Hispanic backlash to Trump. Second, there's that real world consequence of what this is doing to children who are spending months behind bars, even as their parents have asylum claims waiting to be heard.

Could ICE be using these kids in captivity to pressure the parents to self-deport, even if they have legitimate claims to stay in the country? And third, it's affecting Tectas music. Seriously, y'all, look at this. Casey Musgraves next week is gonna drive home that point at Green Hall when she has a crazy interesting guest uh performing with her. I'll explain all of this shortly. I'll have Houston Chronicle immigration reporter Julian Aguar and Democratic strategist.

Lauda Balbarena from San Antonio on to drive home all of this and put a spotlight on US Representative Joaquin Castro, who has been in the middle of all of this right now. And we're gonna touch on the new redistricting decision from the US Supreme Court that could mean the end of congressional districts like we have in Texas that brought us Barbara Jordan and Henry B. Gonzalez, Texas legends.

And stick around to the end, because after seeing Texan, post Malone, cut a don't mess with Texas ad, you know, one of those litter campaign ads. I just saw that the other day. Well, after seeing that, it got me thinking about the best don't mess with Texas ads dating back all the way to the nineteen eighties. Remember that first one with Stevie Rig Vaughn? Oh, that thing was good.

Each year we spend over$20 million picking up trash along our Texas highways. Messing with Texas isn't just an insult to the Lone Star State. Crime. Don't mess with Texas.

But before we get to all that, I want to first get back to what's happening in Dilly, Texas. This is really important, y'all, not just for the immigration issue, but for Texas politics on a larger scale. First, let's remember how Donald Trump won the White House for the second go round. Last year we saw a dramatic swing of Latino voters toward Donald Trump, who won forty two percent of their vote.

That is up significantly from 2016 and 2020. In some states, the president made significant inroads by double digits, as seen in Pennsylvania and Texas, and Florida. That was Errol Lewis of Spectrum News reminding us how well Trump did with the Tinos, which led to big parts of South Texas flipping from Democratic control to Republican. But if his hard line pitch on immigration was part of that equation,

many are now pointing to the faces of those kids being sent to Dilly as being way too much more than they signed up for. Earlier this year, We heard about that twelve year old and the fourteen year old mariachi players, both kids from McAllen, who ended up in Dilly. Their older brother, who's eighteen, ended up at a different facility because he was eighteen.

What's crazy about this is that last year they had played on Capitol Hill and had toured the White House at the invitation of US Representative Monica de la Cruz, a Republican. Yet not even a year later they were being detained at Dilly. That even though that their parents had used the CBP Border One app to claim asylum, like the rules had been set up when Biden was in, the family was still picked up and threatened with deportation.

It wasn't until U.S. Representative Joaquin Castro got heavily involved that the story started to change. Eventually the they were released at least on parole so they could be out in you know going back to school and everything else while their case was being it was pending. I'll have a lot more in Castro and his role later in this program.

This guy's become a leading voice among Democrats on keeping the pressure on Dilly, even as the issue has been slipping away from the top of the news cycle elsewhere in the nation. Donald Trump said he was going after criminals. He said he was going after people who were dangerous to Americans. Well, how is it that these two young men were good enough to perform at the United States Capitol at the invitation of their congresswoman. They were safe enough to tour the White House.

And yet, One of those cases he's been involved with is this case of the El Gamal family, a mother and her five children, all held at Dilly since last summer, despite the Department of Homeland Security saying families are supposed to be detained there for a maximum of of twenty days.

I have Julian Aguilar back on from the Houston Chronicle to help break down what's been happening with this family. You know, you know, they're a Colorado family. They've been held into the detention facility for far longer than I think many people thought was possible. So, you know well, thanks again for joining the program, Julian. Nice to have you back on. Catch us up to speed with this family and what's going on with them. They've been released now, right?

That's correct. That's correct. Yeah. Uh yeah, thank you for having me back on. So the the Elgamall family, it's it's a mother and her five children. As you mentioned, they were detained at Dilly uh for more than ten months. Um it's believed to be the longest detention of emini f em any family at the facility, if not, you know, across the country. It's a very specific case because

her now, um, I guess suit to be ex husband, she are there in divorce proceedings. He is the alleged uh bomber for the uh the attack in Boulder, the anti Semit attack in Boulder, which is horrible. Everybody agrees it's horrible. The family completely distanced themselves from what happened, they said they had no knowledge. And an immigration judge initially said

They are not a danger of the community, they're not a flight risk, and it's obvious that they had no idea what the husband was gonna do. So he originally actually ordered them released on a fifteen thousand dollar bond. The Trump administration appealed.

And then he reversed his decision. And even when they were ordered released, there are certain tools that the government can use called an automatic stay, which, you know, stays that release order. And then they just like summarily denied their asylum claims, which meant that they were in in removal proceedings.

So this like factored into them being detained for so long, but finally now, um I guess last week they successfully petitioned for a habeas petition, you know, saying that their first their that their constitutional rights

were being violated because they should not be detained and there was no justification for that. So that was successful. They were ordered release within two days and they're literally going to their check-in in Colorado, where they, you know, lived and had a family for the last three, four years.

and they get detained again. I mean, as far as recently Saturday, they were on a plane outside of Colorado where a judge signed an order and said, Do not deport this family, the plane had to stop and turn around. So it's been sort of a whiplash of events here. But that's I think that's just one case that sort of illustrates, you know,

how the the administration A isn't going after, you know, the quote unquote the worst of the worst as we've talked about, and B that they're detaining people for a lot longer than what's, you know, uh statutorily approved of, which is, you know, shouldn't be any longer than than a few weeks.

Yeah, and it feels like all the attention around all of these cases, whether it be from the Gamal El Gamal family to the mariachi kids to, you know, the little boy from uh Minnesota, it's like all these cases seem to have been having some sort of effect on even the administration and how they're handling some of these cases. We've heard you know reports, you know, particularly from the uh deportation data project, which tracks ICE detentions nationwide.

Uh since you know in back in January they had nine hundred people per day being detained in Dilly. That number has plummeted since then. And I think that has a lot to do with, you know, you heard it on previous Texas Take episodes where we had representative uh J you know Jasmine Crock and Joaquin Castro, they toured that facility and they found hundreds of kids being confined.

Many of them struggling both mentally and physically under the conditions there. But w what we're now seeing is these numbers have plummeted. Here's this report from Scott Friedman of the NBC News Five up in Dallas. Uh he talked about particularly about this nine-year-old spelling bee kid, you know, Delver Hanio Jimenez, who and his family, they were just trying to compete in a state, you know, spelling bee, and like this kid got detained at Dilly. It's like so here's his report.

The data we've seen shows the number of children held at Dilly has fallen by more than half in recent weeks. And tonight a court-appointed monitor tells NBC Five investigates that ICE appears to be releasing more families and reconsidering holding children beyond the city. Beyond the 20 days typically allowed by federal courts. Just last month, we reported ISIS detained hundreds of families longer than that, some for months.

Yeah, holding on, it feels like the numbers are starting to go down at this dilly detention camp. Wha what can you tell us about that? You know, is that you a situation where kids are just getting deported? Or is there a case that Good good questions all all across the board. You know, uh historically ICE detention uh ORR facilities, whichever has you know, whichever's operating, they fluctuate, right? You know, sometimes they fluctuate depending on where

there is more bed space available depending on where, you know, the closest facility is to where these people originally detained. Uh you know, I would I wouldn't doubt that maybe some of the negative attention that, you know, detaining some of these families and younger kids

has had on the uh the administration might factor into that. But it's it's really a hodgepodge. And honestly, um I mean across the board, across the country as of early April, um there were about sixty six thousand people detained. in ICE facilities, which um is not the record that we saw in January, seventy one thousand, but it's still tens of thousands of people more than the twenty nineteen pre-COVID numbers under the first Trump administration.

So I mean, uh just you know, a dip in certain facilities does not necessarily mean there's like an overhaul across the board. But to your other point, you know, I have heard from immigration attorneys that say, you know, they detain these people As long as they can. They don't have any recourse to get out because eventually they hope that these people will say, you know what, I give up

I'm not gonna fight the case anymore. Just please deport me. And then when you're talking about families, you know, young kids who's who might be separated from their families, whether they're in the the families are in proceedings or whether they've already been deported, I think it makes it easier for them to just raise their hand and say, Okay, send me back to my parents, right?

So I mean there's a lot of factors that go in here. But yeah, I think to your point, I mean, some of the negative press might have something to do with that and also just the way, you know, ICE detention numbers have fluctuated over the last few years anyway.

Yeah, you've done some, you know, good reporting on this in relation to the kids who are being held uh there. It's like it this can't be good for these kids, right? As I that's gotta be one of the concerns that immigration attorneys have been pushing.

saying like, you know, you can't have five, six, seven year olds, you know, spending, you know, in obviously this worst case scenario, ten months behind bars without schooling, without any sort of activity. That can't be good for their health in any way, shape, or form.

No, no, it's I mean it's obviously not. Um and you you know you saw some if you're following the El Gamal store, you saw some of the drawings and some of the letters and you know, there have been other outlets that have reported on other families.

You know, I'll I'll say I'll say two things about that is that these facilities are not meant to be long term facilities, right? You know. If it used to be uh even under the first Trump administration under under Biden, Obama and W. Bush, you know, if you had somebody that had like a severe sort of illness

ICE facilities are not equipped. They're not hospitals, right? So they would release them on some sort of parole, give'em an ankle monitor or something because they knew that they couldn't they couldn't handle the situation. And now what we're seeing is, you know, regardless of the health conditions, regardless of the age and regardless of what educational requirements

these folks might need, they put'em in there for as long as they can anyway. And yeah, you're right. These are meant to be temporary facilities. So if you're in there for a week you might have access to colouring books or computers, but it's not meant to replace the educational system. So They're losing a lot of that and then of course the psychological drama that

that we uh we pointed out. Um but I will say and I think it's points to note and even attorneys tell me that, you know, for every every young kid like the Ramos kid, for every every case like the Mariachi kid, there's ten or t fifteen more that don't have the resources, that don't have the attention paid to them.

So I think that's important to to realize that we're hearing about a lot of these stories, but for each one there's several more that whose stories are not told just because they don't have the resources or or the the way to, you know, to get the press's attention.

Yeah, it's interesting, you know, that's uh uh one of the things I you know, I'm gonna get into a little bit more as we get into this program is that a lot of attention, you know, nationwide was focused on Minnesota and some of the detentions happening there. And obviously the Liam Ramos story was just terrible, you know, it's just to see this little boy

you know, in this facility, not eating, not doing well. It's like eventually he gets released. But like all that attention was on Minnesota. But like y back closer to Texas, what's crazy is the amount of arrest and detentions from ICE is much higher in Texas. Like way higher. We're talking thousands of people are being arrested every week.

in Texas and sent to detention facilities like Dilly, right? It's like the we're really the front line of this, even though we don't necessarily always hear the stories from the kids in Texas, obviously the Mirachi kids we heard a lot about, but there are like lots of Texas kids being pulled out of places like Houston and San Antonio and elsewhere, being sent to these facilities, right?

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean Texas just across the board, whether we're talking about children or adults or families or whatnot, I mean, Texas across the board leads in in the number of detainees per average every single day, right? I mean we're we're leaps and bounds probably more than twice the amount of Louisiana, which is number two on the list. You know, these are quite to recent statistics.

And and yeah, you know, you're seeing you're seeing enrollment drop in public schools. You know, my colleagues just did a really, really good story about thousands of few immigrate immigrant students. across the the Houston metro area. And, you know, this is out of fear that you know, they'll they'll get in some sort of trouble or their their parents are gonna get

pulled over on the way to drop'em off or, you know, so there's there's a lot of things that go outside the actual detention and the fe and the fear factor. But with respect to Texas, um, yeah, you're absolutely right. And with respect to the numbers that I was just talking about

You know, in twenty nineteen, thirty-one percent of the people detained in Texas facilities had criminal records. Um now we're down to like twenty percent. So we're talking, you know, rough roughly seventy five, eighty percent of the people

in ICE detention, uh don't have any criminal convictions. And this kind of goes against what you were talking about earlier with the president promising to, you know, go after the worst of the worst. But they also made a campaign promise to do the largest deportation program in history.

So in other d in order to do that you gotta cast a white net and go after everybody, which is why we're seeing the populations for children d being detained, adults being detained and families being detained, you know, reach these reach these numbers.

Yeah, to hit that number, you can almost imagine somebody going, Hey, we gotta hit this number. Let's go hit some, you know, low hanging fruit. Let's go to some places in South Texas in McAllen of all places, right? It's like it's like it just seems like to go in the valley. and go into businesses and construction sites, you know, all these things we've heard. It just feels like that is just like, you know, these are they're clearly not aiming for

you know, these rapists and murderers that Trump said, you know, for years were roaming the country. They're now going after Really just, you know, people just trying to get by, people, you know, who have been here for a long time. Dreamers. We've heard dreamers, you know, get caught up in this. Like I just can't believe those kids who thought they were going through the right process

are still getting caught up in these p you know facilities. It just seems not like it doesn't sound like what Trump said he was going to do uh at the front of this, you know, second campaign. Right. And they're also getting a lot of people that go to their ICE check ins that like present themselves to the immigration authorities because that's what they're supposed to do for their as while their asylum petition is going, you know.

and talk about low hanging fruit. I mean, you don't have to go out into the field and get anybody. They're coming to you. Um and these are people obviously with no criminal records. I mean, if they were absconding, why would they show up to a federal facility and say, Hey, here I am, I'm checking in as required. So we've heard several stories where people were detained during a routine ice check-in.

um which they thought they were following the procedures and they were and I took the opportunity to detain them and a lot of them are in removal proceedings.

Yeah, it just seems like there's not a lot of give there in this process. And I think when you know, we saw a lot of those places in South Texas vote for Trump in the cycle.

I think that it was acknowledgement the border was a problem. There were too many people coming in. You go to places like Eagle Pass and Del Rio, they were feeling the pressures within their community, like, you know, this is we need a change. We need something different. But I just can't imagine. They thought at some point like you know, high school kids, you know, you know, playing in a mariachi band we're gonna be the target. So

It'll be interesting to see how this kind of plays out as we move forward. You know, this is a a uh the story just is not going to end anytime soon. As we mentioned, the detentions are going down, but they're still happening. I just can't imagine the Trump administration is gonna say, okay, we're just gonna, you know, cave to the public pressure here. No, they they're totally going for this, you know, full bore, right?

Yeah. Yeah. I talked about a dip in numbers, you know, compared to a few months ago, but I wouldn't be surprised if, you know, the next time we're talking in a few weeks or a few months that those numbers have are inching back up again. So yeah. Yeah, I wonder if a as the midterms maybe get worse as they start seeing that it's gonna be worse for them, if they take full advantage of well, well, we have the majorities now. Let's go like let's go all out because who knows what we'll be able to do

next year if the Democrats take control of the House or the Senate or both, which would be the worst case scenario for President Trump. Julian, thanks again for joining the Texas Tech. Love having you back on. Thanks. Thanks for having me. Enjoyed being here. Now let's dig a little bit deeper into the political ramifications of all this. And for that, let's check in with Laura Babarana of VivaPolitics.

She's worked with some of the biggest names in democratic politics in San Antonio. Think Ron Nuremberg, Javier Salazar, uh Jose Menendez, the state senator. Like it a lot of big names. Thanks for joining the program. Like love having you on. Great to be here. Thanks for having me, Jeremy.

Well look, when Republicans drew these congressional maps last summer, they focused on South Texas. They thought You know what? We're gonna really capitalize on, you know, the Latinos who voted for Trump la in twenty twenty four. We're gonna build a map on that whole concept. Uh and so they went after Henry Quayar and Laredo, Vicente Gonzalez down in the RGV, and uh of course wanted to protect Monica Della Cruz also on the RGV.

and, you know, sure up the twenty third Congressional District. They thought they built this beautiful map. They're gonna get all these extra seats out of Texas. All said and done. So they succeeded, right? Well, I you know, I guess um we that remains to be seen, as they say. Um, you know, uh I guess they successfully got rid of Lloyd Doggett, which of course makes me really sad because he was

you know, such a great legislature for su legislature for such a long time. Um, adore him and his constituency services, set the bar for how you communicate to to your constituents. But yeah, I I think that um things have changed quite a bit since the maps have been drawn. Namely, uh there's this little thing called ICE, you may have heard of it. Uh they have just been coming into communities and I if I'm not mistaken, I think San Antonio is like the fourth

most arrests in the country when it comes to ICE arrests and detentions. And so they made a promise, Republicans did, and Donald Trump, that they would incarcerate the worst of the worst. and instead we have, you know, children in you know, with little backpacks and little cute little hats being detained in horrible, horrible places uh li like Dilly. A and we've seen and thanks to social media and people being out there and and making sure that they are being citizens' journalists, if you will.

videotaping and documenting these things and and you've seen communities organizing around this to ensure that these stories are being told. I know here in San Antonio, for instance, there was a a group of folks who who gathered together to talk about how we could ensure that people knew their rights when it came to ICE, uh, and then also documented these stories of unjust

of detentions. And I think it's really taken a quite a turn. And I think what you've seen is the la the Latino voter and the Latino community in general, you've seen a shift. where I think earlier there were immigrants coming into border communities

literally thousands and with nowhere to go and they'd plant themselves under bridges and in the streets and I think kind of freak people out, to be honest. And so when Trump came in and said, you know, I'm gonna fix all this I think there was a desire to have these immigrants cleared from their streets.

and homes and communities, thinking that it would be the worst of the worst. And it turned out it wasn't. And I think as we've seen these stories uh emerge about literally children being held in very unjust situations. um the the disease and lack of sanitary conditions that that's really kind of changed the tide. I think Latinos Latino voters in particular are realizing uh they may have a little bit of um

maybe changing their positions. And I think, you know, we're gonna we're gonna really feel and see that coming up here in the midterm elections. But Certainly I think the polls are showing that this is what's what's happening. Folks are moving away from uh from Trump and the Republican Party and their hard stance on on ICE.

Yeah, it's interesting. And the the result of that we've seen that you know Henry Quayar who was one of their targets you know, looks like he's in you know, doing okay. Like they gave him a district that he might actually be uh surviving in. Most of the big p you know prognosticators out there think like the Cook political report.

You know, it's like they all have him leaning towards winning his re election. Look, he still has to execute, but so he's in, you know, not as bad of a situation as the White House was trying to put him in. Uh certainly Vicenta Gonzalez is in, you know, a pr you know, a toss up type district. Yeah, I always laugh at that district'cause they actually gave him back some of his home territory where he's from. Right. And like they didn't even know it.

I worked on his first campaign, believe it or not, and got to know him really well. Uh Vicente is just uh he's a he's a very interesting guy, a rag to riches story. Literally got his GED, started his own little business painting. You know you know on the streets where you have those little numbers that give your address? he he started a business I guess doing that and worked his way into college and became an attorney and now he's a successful PI attorney if I'm not mistaken and

you know, and essentially self funded his campaign. And he's b he it's interesting, uh, to see him and him him evolving. He I thought he was moving a little more to the right and now he seems to be moving a little bit more to the left. It's certainly on the immigration issue. And then Henry Kragar is always an interesting interesting character to look at, not in because of his issues with FBI and all of that.

You know, but he is literally one of the most powerful congressmen in the country in terms of his position, his seniority and he delivers for his community. And I I always laugh with Oh, he you know, th they they're gonna get him this time, they're gonna beat him this time and e every time he's always been able to overcome uh any challenger. And I think it's partially because he he is in these powerful positions and frankly I think he delivers for his constituents. Yeah, so we have

The the Republicans may have missed on both these districts in the end. Both these candidates are gonna campaign pretty hard and try to win their seats. I like both of their odds at this point, you know, certainly better than I thought they were gonna be when they were getting drawn, you know, uh their districts were being redrawn.

And then you have the Monica Della Cruz district, which is much more competitive. We've seen Bobby Polito really give her a charge. But the surprise to me in all of this has been what's happened to the twenty third congressional district. Right. That's that district that stretches from

Helotas, basically to the other side of the planet, or I say El Paso. Same thing, right? But you know, the bulk of that district is still s uh San Antonio universe. Uh and it's been represented by Tony Gonzalez. Uh but of course he's had his scandals. Uh he, you know, now is no longer a member of Congress, not seeking reelection. And so that makes Brandon Herrera, the G O P nominee, he's a much further a much more conservative and further to the right.

Which all all of a sudden it has made Democrat Katie Padilla Stout look so much better of a candidate. And just don't take my word for it. Look at what the donors have done. She had less than nine thousand dollars in her campaign account in mid February. And now, since then, she's raised two hundred thousand dollars. She went from literally rags to riches almost overnight.

In this situation. I talked to her recently, just you know, the other day for the Texas Take newsletter, and here's what she told me about her improving chances.

I just find it so funny because the pendulum has just swung so quickly from people being like, This is impossible, like there's no way you know, whatever they wanted to say to like, you have to keep campaigning, like I know they wanna hand you this on a silver potter, but you have to keep working and I'm like, Oh, that's nice that you feel that way I don't feel that way

But we just don't really listen to the noise. My whole philosophy has just been like, you know, keep your head down and keep doing the work and, you know, try as hard as you can and see where you land. She feels like she's in a much better spot than she was certainly sixty days ago, right? This is a candidate who looked like she was struggling to catch on and now there looks like something, you know, is possible here.

I know, who would have known if I would have told you last summer, Hey Jeremy, the twenty third is totally up for up for grabs, you would have you know, we would have laughed me out of the room. I mean, just you you can't make this stuff up, right? Like you literally truth is stranger than fiction. The scandal a and we still even when the scandal we thought he was still gonna run, right? We still thought Tony Gonzalez was still gonna run and he intended to run.

And it was really um up until the last second that he pulled out. And I think as we look to see

Brandon is uh we we talked a little bit about this uh uh off air. He is a very different kind of candidate. He's what I'm gonna categorize as sort of these influencer categ category, the influencer running for office. It's a it's a very new and strange kind of candidate profile that we're seeing emerge in on both Democrat and Republican sides, where you have folks who have garnered support in a non-political arena.

basically online, doing podcasts and YouTube videos. And Brandon is a perfect example of that, where he has a huge following on his YouTube channel. Now, does that translate to votes in Bear County to win the election? Who knows? Uh but it provides two things. One he he has a huge base that he can try to raise money from. His name ID is pretty high, but it also means

He's got a lot of content out there that can be used against him. And I think what you've seen develop is the fact that Tony's out, Brandon's in, there's so much content that is so incredibly controversial. And frankly, Katie Pittias Stout is this, you know, sort of fresh air. She's never run for office before, very authentic. You know, her her website's like, you know, a mom on a mission. I love that, right? She's a mom on a mission.

who who doesn't love that? Like i it's just gonna be very interesting to see sort of authentic mom, former teacher current attorney who represents foster kids running against the AK guy, right? So all of a sudden this narrative of the the competing narrative in this particular race has completely changed. And it's gonna be very interesting to see how this turns out. I think it's in play. Uh dare I say that I think it's in play. I really do. And we're gonna learn more over the next

You know, I mean, the fact that she's raised the two hundred thousand is amazing, but you and I know that to win this particular seat, you're you're talking about millions. You really need to have millions. But this is a good indicator that folks think that she has a chance. And there'll be I'm sure there'll be tons of polls that get done, lots of polling that will get done to determine how much they want to invest because

You know, the Democratic Party, there's not an endless amount of money, right? They have to look to see which races they feel are truly the competitive ones. And they'll come back, they'll do polls on this race, they'll determine whether or not how competitive they really feel it is. And then the money will start flowing if they feel that it is. And not just from the party, but now you've got outside groups, dark money groups.

PAX, other folks who'll jump into the ring as well. And I think you'll start to see all of this develop here, uh, you know, pretty soon, especially over the summer. It's exciting. It's exciting to see this. And you rem you remember our current mayor of San Antonio, Gene Ortiz Jones, ran for that seat and came oh so, so close. So close, in fact, that she didn't want to concede. Yeah. You're right.

She didn't want to concede and she wanted a recount and in fact I think she even went to D C and like went through the orientation for Congress because she was so convinced that that the recount was gonna flip because it was less than two thousand votes if I'm not mistaken. So and that was um those obviously it it wasn't against

Brandon and is a is a different time as we fast forward into the current what we're facing now. But it it's certainly interesting that to see what's gonna happen in this race. And I think it's I think it's up for grabs personally. That's kinda what I think.

Yeah, w it's so interesting. So, you know, incumbents, you know, at least over the last ten years, you know, in the US House get elected at least ninety three percent of the time, usually more. You know, ninety three percent is the s is the floor.

It's like so it's you know, so she no longer has an incumbent to worry about and she gets a more conservative, you know, primary opponent than originally would have been expected to come out of that district. So she got two things going and that third thing is I you know, I think because of where this district lies, it goes along the border, it picks up these places like Eagle Pass.

Uh and and and it does pick up Uvaldi. It does pick up these areas where, you know, maybe the AK guy is gonna s feel a little bit different and the immigration issue. Let's get into this because The I think this immigration issue affects a lot of Texas congressional races right now, uh where again the the people who thought that Republican uh uh that South Texas voters voted for Trump, so thus they're always going to be voting Republican, didn't read the room right. You know, and I think

Especially as people have been seeing these kids go to jail, like we've talked about a lot on this program. Let's talk about those mariachi kids. You know, that's 18-year-old. and Antonio Gama's Quayar, eighteen years old, his brothers, Caleb, fourteen, fourteen, and Joshua, twelve, all behind bars at one point. These are kids from McAllen who were just playing in their high school mariachi. And it's like and they become part of the image.

their family seemingly did everything that you were supposed to do by using the C B B uh border one app to get their asylum claims. They hadn't committed any crimes and yet there they were behind bars. And it look they've now been paroled at least and you know, and so we'll see where their case ends. But it feels like all these cases you know start to pile up at some point and has to have an impact on voters Yeah, as they look at, you know, do I want to vote Republican this year?

Certainly it does. And you know, it's interesting because this not this issue a and again, full disclosure, you know this, but I'm married to a mariachi. So my husband plays in Campanas de America here in San Antonio. So you know, this Mariachi story r hit really close to home for us. And my husband was on the phone talking to their teacher, talking to um Congressman uh Castro's office. trying to get attention and this was very interesting because it became front and center.

of the other congressional race, Bobby Pulido's race, right? Where Monikam Bobby it became this um it became an issue where they were both trying to jump in, uh, and interestingly enough, Monica had taken their high school group to DC to perform. And unlike any of the other sort of moves toward releasing individuals who have been held in detentions,

You had both Republicans and Democrats calling for their release because it was just so completely unjust. And and this is so important that people know that they separated the family. So the the two younger boys and his parents. were into Dilly, and then Antonio, who was eighteen, because he had just turned eighteen, like a month prior, got separated from the family, and so they were completely separated. And it was just and to the point again,

Democrats and Republicans were calling for their release. Uh and Congressman Castro, who uh Little funny note here, I actually worked on his very first campaign when he ran for state rep many, many years ago. He'd just gotten back from Harvard. So I got to know him really well and uh I really cherish the friendship that I have with him. But he has really just taken this notion of Dilly and shutting Dilly down and it is

dare I say, going to be part of his legacy, uh, that he's just really leaned into this and has been truly exposing the unjust conditions in Dilly, taking delegations to visit, etcetera. But But going back to the Mariachis, you know, I I think that particular story, because culturally mariachis are so um significant to us as Latinos because they're there at every milestone of our lives, whether it's a baptismal

uh, baby shower, Mother's Day, funerals, birthdays, quincenieras, which by the way, the quincenieta controversy with Bobby Pulito, it's a whole other thing. Uh, we won't get into that now. But Um, you know, that the the this music is so um and just it reaches people in a different way. And when you show these very young and these are these are like mariachi students who were out

Standing. I mean, they have been received they I think w one of them was like first chair in state in Mariachi because Mariachi competition is now UIL and he he was first chair. Like these are very, very talented musicians, so much so that they performed in D C. Um, and it just to see these children with so much potential being put into these detention centers, I think was, you know, it's part of the narrative changing.

Uh, and I don't know how Republicans stop that because story after story after story are people who should not have been detained, who had the permission to be here, are doing it the right way. are being detained. And that is where now people, um, not just Latinos, but you have uh our allies in the African American community, in the Anglo community, everyone is now looking at this issue in a very different way.

Yeah, and if they didn't need their stories elevated even more, they're gonna get a chance to get even further, uh, because they as I mentioned at the early part of the show, Casey Musgrave. uh has got involved in all of this. Like look she is no stranger to politics. She has certainly used her platform to go after, you know, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump before. But uh what she did this week is that she announced that she's gonna have

the Mariachi Brothers as her opening act at Green Hall, one of the most iconic music venues in all of Texas. These kids who were behind bars just a couple of days ago or a couple of weeks ago are now gonna be playing before Casey Musgrave. You know, it's like which is and and she's gonna have them on the show with her because the thing about Casey is like she doesn't just like get a little political. So this made you know sense politically for her.

But she has fallen in love with mariachi music. This woman had like last year she was starting to do some really powerful performances. There was one out of Mexico City. There's a clip that she put on her site. You know where she does two solo two with a mariachi accompaniment, and it is so powerful. Hey, take a listen to it right here.

It just makes so much sense. Like it it uh not only that, but on this new album she has, what she had told NPR was that she was trying to get Flacco Jimenez and Willie Nelson to play on the record with her because she wanted to show the roots of how mariachi music and Texas country music.

have a commonality and a connection to the soul of Texas in a way. I'm like, okay, this woman loves mariachi and to have these kids on stage is not just a political move, but it's also something that's kind of dear to her. But anyway Right. Well but what she's doing too, Jeremy, and I think this is so incredibly critical is you know, you and I and probably everyone listening to this show to be frank, you know, we're political junkies. Like everything we see is through the lens of politics.

But most people, most normal people, uh, don't. And so what she's doing is and and what we refer to this in campaigns, is you're meeting voters where they are, right? So People who like mariachi music may not see the world as political in the way that we do, but by bringing attention and taking this music and telling the stories of these musicians through their performance, now suddenly we're like, well, who are those?

Boys, and they're so good. And well, what happened to them? That happened to them. Why? So you're creating a consciousness. that wasn't there. So again, when we talk about turnout in November, these kinds of stories, these kinds of awakenings are gonna be critical to democratic turnout in November.

Yeah, it certainly cuts in a different way. And as you mentioned, you know, it's like You know, Joaquin Castro has been on all over all of this. He's been going to that delete detention center. You know, he was there w with the Gamal family, you know, the El Gamal family trying to help them. He was there with Liam Ramos. He literally was the guy who picked Liam Ramos up.

from Dili and helped get him out of there, get him to the airport with his father, of course. And of course he was there with the uh uh these ki the mariachi kids, you know. He's been an outspoken voice. He's actually making his fifth trip to Dilli this next week, just this year.

He uh he's now headed back to Dilly again for another one to bring attention to the other kids who are still left behind. So yeah, the numbers are going down, but don't for you know, just don't forget that there are still kids behind bars, you know, in this facility that he's trying to work on. Yeah, and I know working with his my husband working with his office as we're working towards helping the Gamez Quayar family, they actually have someone in his office

in constituency service who just deals with these issues. So if someone has a family member or a neighbor who's been picked up, they can call the congressman's office and begin to figure out how and get more information. Like they've literally created a hotline, if you will, to deal with this because it's becoming so rampant in our community.

Yeah. And and you know, uh amazing story. And like in his district's even more noble to me right now,'cause we just get some breaking news, you know, this week while we were putting the show together. And i it wouldn't be a Texas take if I didn't mention this redistricting case that came out of the Supreme Court.

You know, this is really big stuff, y'all. This is uh the Supreme Court essentially said that states no longer can gerrymander or draw districts in relation to race. Now think about what that means for you for Texas.

You know, we're talking about Houston and uh San Antonio. Uh think about the Barbara Jordan district and the Henry B. Gonzalez district. These are districts that were created out of the Voting Rights Act in the first place to make sure that You know, we fixed you know decades of discrimination against people to so there'd be a chance to elect, you know, what would be the fat first black woman out of Texas and the first Hispanic man ever to represent, you know, Texas in Congress.

So in both cases, that's what these lines were doing. Now the the question is what's gonna happen to these districts in the future? Are are Republicans going to be more emboldened to go after the heart of San Antonio, the 20th Congressional District, and break up the old Henry B. Gonzalez district and go after the Barbara Jordan district. It just feels like a kind of scary time for a lot of people in these communities who might come out of this With their community splintered all over the place.

Well that's interesting. I mean certainly uh you can put that on the win column for Ken Paxton, who's the one who's behind all of this. And it's it's very, very concerning for folks like me who want to see members of Congress represent look like and have similar values as the people that live in their communities.

It is a little terrifying. And, you know, the way the Republicans got around this initially was that they said that they weren't drawing the lines on race, that they were actually doing it on partisanship, right? So Um, never mind race, we're just gonna put bunch of lump a bunch of Democrats and a lunch of Republicans, but and I think we all knew that the underlying argument was that they were they were doing it around race. And but now that this has come out with the Supreme Court

You know, it's it's a huge blow. But you know, we've been here before, Jeremy. I say we as in the Democrats, you know, we've been here before and um, you know, I think we just you know, as ha being on on solidly on the democratic side Um, it just means you just have to keep fighting and uh looking toward uh the future in a positive way and hoping that things like Dilly, things like

young Mariachi children being incarcerated for not breaking the law. There's the kinds of things that will do will awaken those who are not political or don't see themselves political or think frankly that their vote doesn't matter. Like these are the kinds of stories that can get voters to the polls. And and I'm feeling, you know, at least certainly what we're seeing happening nationwide in terms of turnout and democratic turnout, where we're seeing solidly red districts being flipped.

mind blowing that mind blowingly flipped, if I can say. So, you know, the question is, will that happen in Texas? We're you know, it's like a whole other country here in Texas, so you never know what's gonna happen. But uh I certainly think Uh, we'll see a surge. I know that there's a concern on the Republican side about that surge because we've seen them go after our voting rights, uh, essentially looking for, you know, stronger voter ID laws.

uh trying to get rid of vote by mail, these kinds of things that traditionally disenfranchise working families. So, um, we shall see what happens in November. But I'm I'm hopeful that that Democrats will come out and uh and just show that it doesn't matter what district you draw, we're still going to come out and uh and come out ahead. That's my hope. Well an and and it certainly puts that pressure on, you know, winning a state house.

Uh winning the state house back from Republicans, those races take on a whole different meaning now, I think, on the campaign trail going into this midterm cycle and beyond. Uh so if the Democrats needed another message. to be able to bring to voters saying why you you know you should care about these races, you know, it'll be that reason. It's like to get those that those voters in in Harris County and Houston to understand that like, no, no, they're coming for this district next.

Uh they they can now split that district into pieces. Same thing in San Antonio. They can make, you know, the heart of San Antonio go all the way up into the Texas Hill Country, you know, from here on to eternity if they wanted to under this ruling. Remember the Fahita districts, remember that? District where they they was literally from Austin all the way down to the Rio Gran Valley. Uh and uh Lloyd Doggett, by the way, ran for that seat and won against the Latina, which I think is hilarious.

Uh, but you know, they've they've tried and tried um uh multiple ways to try to to try to give themselves an advantage the Republicans have. But we'll see what happens this time. Um, you know, and and see if voters will We'll f step up and push back. Well, Laura, it's great to have you on the program. Thanks for joining the Texas Take and we will have you on again soon. I'd love to come back. Thanks so much, Jeremy.

Just the mention of Willie Nelson and Flacco Jimenez in this program is a really good warm-up for our next segment on that whole Don't Mess With Texas Letter campaign. As I mentioned at the start of the show, I saw Post Malone, the big pop star, featured in a new ad. It totally makes sense. He's from Grapevine, big pop star, does exactly what you should do with one of these ads. I love this one. Take a listen.

Pride and ending roadside litter. That spirit lives on. Don't mess with Texas as Don't litter for forty years. Let's keep it up. Brought to you by Texto. Pretty solid, right? But it had me thinking, what are the five best ads in this campaign? And look, first and second are no doubters, right? Stevie Ray Vaughn and Willie Nelson really kind of set the standard for the whole campaign. Take a listen to these back and back. There's no way these aren't one and two.

Each year we spend over$20 million picking up trash along our Texas highways. Messing with Texas isn't just an insult to the Lone Star State. Don't mess with Texas. Now, number three is tricky. There's so many to pick from out there. You got Lyle Lovett did one of these. You had George Strait, of course. You had sports legends like Warren Moon of the Houston Oilers and Ed Ed Tutal Jones of the Dallas Cowboys.

All of him have done ads like this. Earl Campbell, he did one too. Love all of them. But I think for number three, I'm gonna go with the Texas Tornadoes with Flacco Jimenez playing on that accordion. As a kid growing up in San Antonio, this sound is just so apropos, just perfectly on the mark. And and especially when you were watching on TV, you had all these other ads coming on, and this just didn't sound like anything else you were seeing. So here you are, number three, Texas tornadoes.

Okay, it's not just about music. I love number four here, George Foreman. Yeah, the late boxer was also a preacher in a Houston icon. I love this ad for so many reasons. Every time I see George Foreman, It's hard not to smile, right? Anyhow, take a listen to this one. brother takes from you. You give to him. You think it's crazy! But if he ever, he ever messes with Texas. Pray for him, brother. Pray.

Finally, number five. Number five on my list is a newer one. I'm going with Ethan Hawk. Yeah, Ethan Hawk cut one of these a couple years ago. The whole ad is hilarious. The actor, director, he's working with the mascot. Daryl the Barrel, a big stuffy essentially, and he's trying to coach him up for his big role and their big moment to work together on a scene for the first time in his career. Anyhow, take a listen. It's hilarious. Hello, I'm Ethan Hawk. Love for the state.

Keeping it litter free. Action! When I got the call. Direct Daryl the Barrel. All right, everybody, quiet on set here. I mean, it was a dream come true. We can We're moving on! Throwing away litter. Compelling experience. You feel his power. In your heart. Donnick, it's what he lives for. Cutting the helicopter. This is so wonderful. I I have a lot of other projects in my Don't mess with Texas means don't let her. Let's keep Texas clean, am I right?

Okay, just missing this list. I can't believe I left Jerry Jeff Walker and Joe Ely on the cutting room floor. But hey, you gotta make some tough decisions sometimes. And this is my list and I'm sticking to it. Who did I miss? You you tell me, send me an email, s send me a DM or uh or whatever. You know, just you know, reach out, let me know who I missed who should be on this list.

Now that's a full Texas Take episode, right? Not only are we digging into Texas politics across this great state, but we're also bringing you Casey Musgraves, Stevie Ray Von, and Willie Nelson on his birthday week.

You're not getting that on any of the podcasts, y'all. Thanks a lot for listening to this episode of the Texas Take, and a big shout out to all y'all who have been listening to the program of late. You know, last week we set a record on downloads, listens, and views on all of our different platforms.

It is greatly appreciated. Thanks a lot for watching that episode, you know, where we got into it with James Tallerico and how he plans to campaign after that really difficult primary season with Jasmine Crockett. Also, a big thanks to my guests. Love having Julian back on the program talk immigration out of the Houston Chronicle. and having Laura back on from San Antonio. Nobody knows Texas politics, especially South Texas politics quite like she does. Great having both of them on the program.

Again, thanks a lot for watching this episode and please be sure to check out the Texas Tech newsletter. That comes out every weekday. Uh it's easy to sign up for and it's free. Two great words right there, right? Easy and free.

Check out my pinned post on X. Uh just click on that and it'll take you to the sign up page or Google it in Texas Tech Newsletter and Jeremy Wallace and you'll get there eventually and be able to sign up from there. Thanks a lot for watching this episode and we'll talk to y'all soon.