TechStuff's Predictions for 2012

at Uh. So, today we are going to do our yearly exercise in futility and pain, which is our predictions for what is going to happen in the year following. And this being the year of eleven, we're looking ahead to twelve and wondering how wrong we can be. Actually, you know, our predictions for ended up being more right than not. As I recall, you got to say a Dreamcast score and I got a World Pool tub. Yes, so it was much better than my score for the

year previous. Yeah, I I see that those are both perfectly cromulent scores. So we've we've done really well. Uh, whether or not we will do as well for this coming year remains to be seen. Yeah, if you are a long term fan, especially, you know that we do this every year, or at least Truff tried to do this for the last two years. Uh and uh. Also you probably listened to our recap of TN, which ended up being epic because all the stuff we predicted was merely the tip of the iceberg. We had so much

incredible tech news that we never would have predicted. People like Steve Jobs leaving us and the release of Google Plus, earthquake in Japan, earthquake in Japan, um, all the all these things are things that we never would have guests would happen um when they did so. UM. Although my first my first prediction does kind of fall into that category stuff that we really you know, I mean, all

indicators point to this. It's just that we can't know right now exactly how big an impact it's going to make. But mine, my first prediction, is all about economic uncertainty, So it was uncertain whether you were going to do that or not. Economic markets around the world are in

trouble right right now. You've got you've got the situation in Greece, which pretty much when about as bad as it possibly can you have other situations in Italy there there's a lot of concern that the European market is in major Uh, there's a major risk that it could it could falter and fall apart. Then there's the worry about how that fallout would affect the rest of the world.

So perhaps the United States, which already seems to be kind of in its own funk economically speaking, could follow suit. There's a lot of worry abo what this could mean. And frankly, no matter how it turns out, whether it ends up just being a small blip or a massive catastrophe, it's going to affect technology because you know, technology runs

on not just electricity but money. And as the this situation gets more and more complex and uncertain, I think we're going to see that kind of effect the moves that companies are going to make in the technology space. And that might mean that, uh, we'll see we may see some companies go under. You know, companies that are kind of on the brink already might might disappear, become acquired for a song. Because this of this environment, we

might see some scale back. We could see that scale back coming in the form of fewer products being released, or perhaps even layoffs or restructuring. Uh. I really think that because the there is such uncertainty that we're going to see a lot of stories that in somewhere another relate back to that. I know that's not very specific. It's kind of a gimme prediction. It's not really a

specific prediction. But that's one of the reasons why some of the other predictions I've made or thought about are really tenuous, because the economic situation is so serious and so unpredictable that a lot of them could hinge on it going one way versus another. So that's also me covering my butt for some of my other predictions I'll be making. All right, Well, I didn't write these down in an order necessarily that I um, I want to release them, so I think I think I'm basing mine

on that. I think one of the first things that happened, and it could very well happen by the end of the year, is that Yahoo will get purchased by someone else. Um. There, there's already talk right now. As of now, we're we

didn't mentioned more more recording. This recording us in at the very end of the first week in December or partial week actually the second second so and then this has already been in the news, so the Chinese firm Ali Baba might some of these predictions may end up being predictions for the last month of December or eleven rather than uh than for twelve, because we frankly don't

know how it's gonna turn out. I have a similar prediction to that, saying that yeah, who will either get sold or will break up into various pieces that get gobbled up by different companies. There are a lot of different properties in Yahoo that I think has still have value, things like and also would make a big impact if they were to go away, like yeah, who Mail? That would be pretty catastrophic if that went away. So uh yeah,

I think that something's yeah whom. If y'all who gets spot by Ali Baba, that could means some pretty big changes down the line. But yeah, this I think would be the last year for Yahoo as the company that we we know now. Maybe that whoever buys Yahoo, if that does indeed happen, tries to keep it as its own separate identity, but it's going to be a different animal, right right. Another financial related one, I think the A T and T and T Mobile USA merger is destined

to fail. Um. Again, this is a low hanging for eyah, have some some gimmes. And I'm based on everything that's come out in the news in the last uh month or so, really the last two weeks. Um, A lot of people are concerned about the competition problems that will cause here in the United States, and um, I just don't think it's gonna go. Yeah. If it does happen, it's going to be such a dramatic, uh departure from the original deal that it's going to look like something

different anyway. Like right now, a T and T is is suggesting it would sell off a large amount of T Mobiles assets to other companies in order to avoid this UH antitrust issue. But whether or not that will be enough for that deal to actually go through remains to be seen. I'm I'm skeptical as well. Yeah. Now, UM, I want to point out that one of the things they're talking about is a joint venture between the two if if the merger fails. Um, And I'm not counting

that as the merger going through. Um. So I mean I'm being literal when I say that. Well, and you know, this is another time to point out that, uh that if it weren't for other political issues that are going on right now, uh, this merger might not have been

such a big red flag. That was a red flag for everyone in the tech industry who was worried that, uh, the number one or number two and number four carriers joining together could end up really reducing innovation and causing a reduction and competition and just be bad for consumers overall. But now we also have political movements like the occupy movement, which are bringing more attention to the way governments treat

companies versus the way they treat individual citizens. And I think that kind of focus has also really hurt the chances for that merger going through because now everyone's feeling much more cautious about this, because the uproar is getting louder and louder. Uh, let me do one, because I've just commented on two of yours. Um, how about the

RIM is going to undergo an executive shuffle. I think I think at some point in we're going to see a shake up in RIM's executive ranks, whether or not this finally means we'll get down to one CEO for rem as opposed to the co C e O S. I don't know, but I think that shareholders are going

to demand. You know, REM has had a couple of was a tough year for REM, and I think if if they don't do something dramatic at the organizational level, uh, shareholders are not going to continue supporting the company because it's They're gonna be worried about the decisions being made there. So I expect that sometime in twelve we're going to see a big shake up in the executive structure. All right, Um, I made considerably more predictions this year than I did

last year. So do you do you do you want to go again? Or you want me to know you go ahead? Okay, all right? Um? Other financial stuff this is this is another gimme. Although we've been talking about it for years. I think Facebook is finally ready to have an initial public offering of stock and I think

it's really gonna happen this time. I also think that they're going to hit one billion users before the end of which is the million now, so I think they'll hit a billion users before the end of the year. And also, yeah, I think they will go public, So I think they're gonna get that was it ten billion that they're hoping for with an initial public offering, their value that a hundred billion. I think it's a ten billion. I p o that that at least that was the

most recent rumor I read. Um, I think that's gonna happen too. I agree. Um, Here's okay, I have a crazy one. This is one that I think. I don't I don't think this is really going to happen. I really don't think it's gonna happen. But I wanted to have a crazy prediction. So here's my crazy prediction. Google

purchases Twitter. Really Yeah, because Twitter, I mean really, Twitter has been sticking around for ages and ages and ages, and it uh somewhat defiantly because even now, even where it has its limited advertisement model and and I just

can't imagine it's pulling in the revenue. It needs to be a really viable business, right, I mean, it's mostly still existing or it's it's been it's traditionally, it's it's existed upon venture capitalists investing money into the company, and I think, uh, you know, you can only keep that up for so long before people just lose faith and they won't pour money into it. No matter how important

that services. I think Google is the company that would, just like Google did with YouTube, I think Google would would take up the Twitter in that sense too, and also say like, now we can treat you just like we did Jaiku. So every and like and like in like a year, it'll be gone. No. I think that that's my crazy prediction. And again I don't really believe it, but I wanted to predict it. Okay, all right, It's funny because I keep looking for segways, and I keep

seeing multiple segways that I could take. I think I'll stick with the Google thing. I thought you're gonna make a prediction about segways. No, not no actual segways, not the segways. Um. I although people have been predicting it's demise, I don't think it's I think it's crazy to predict that Google Plus will will just die. I think Google Plus will slowly increase its user base over the course of and uh some modest gains. Yeah, I think it. Well, it's funny because once people got let in, uh and

they started not using it in droves. I think people really haven't given it as much of a shakedown as they need to. And I think that, especially now that Google is redesigning its user interface to promote Google Plus more thoroughly and making it it's sort of a hub for people's um attention. I think it will gradually. I don't think it's gonna, you know, beat out Facebook next year, but I do think that it's going to people are gonna go, no, you know what, this is just not

so bad. I kind of like it. Unless they've been adding functionality over the course of a few months, it's been open to you. I think it'll grow. It looks to me like Google Plus. His journey is very similar to what I saw on Twitter, and that there was a quick rush to kind of check out what this new toy was, and then a very sharp drop off as people thought this isn't what I wanted it to be and they leave, and then just slow gains after

that until more and more people are using it. I mean, I still have several thousand people following me on Google Plus, and that's more than I have on Twitter. Um, and it's, uh, you know, it's it's still a very good tool to engage people now. Granted, a lot of the people who follow me end up looking like they are some sort of bought or something, or it's just a an account that's made in order to repost other people's stuff that

there's nothing original in there. You go and you look at the uh the posts that the person made, and they're all shares of some other person's posts, so they're not like anything original. A friend of mine complained about that just yesterday, literally, and I think Google has been removing some of those two because my my follower numbers have been fluctuing. Either that or I'm driving people away, which is also possible. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna Yeah,

I'm not gonna negate that. Uh here's one of my others guesses just a while us. Uh So in twelve, I think it has to do this for this, for for it to stay together. But Netflix gets its act together,

in which may possibly include letting read Hastings go. Might include that because read Hastings I mean eleven was had a series of missteps for Netflix, and Netflix lost a lot of the support and uh an admiration in the tech community starting in the summer of eleven when it announced that it was changing the pricing plans for streaming

versus DVD plus streaming versus DVD only. And then then, of course they alienated even more people when there was the announcement that Netflix was going to split into two different companies where one would just do DVD distribution and the other one would do digital uh. And then when they went back on that, they got even more derision, mostly because they're like, well, if you're gonna make a stand,

at least stick to it. You made a choice that I hate, but then you went back to the choice that I hated slightly less, so I hate you more now I like, wait that what? So? Yeah, I think Netflix has been battered around a lot. In some cases it was you know, you understandable at least on the part of the people who are upset, you can understand why they're upset. In other cases, I think it might be one of those like you just heap more and

more abuse on as it goes on. But I think that the company has to do something in twelve to recapture some of that good faith. That might mean Read Hastings has to go. Although personally, you know, I have no problem with the guy, so I don't. I don't know, But I'm not a shareholder either. I'm not I'm not a stakeholder in Netflix, so um, I'm not you know, I don't have much to say about it on that sense,

so we'll see. Yeah. I think they actually made some some decent decisions, but made them at a bad time. They made drastic changes to the service when the public was not ready to And Netflix is doing some stuff that's similar to things we've seen Apple do in the past, in the sense that in order to reach the world that Netflix wants us to be in, that being a

world where digital distribution is the norm. In order to reach that world, you have to make some pretty tough sacrifices and force people's hands to adopt to the new model, because if you don't know, everyone drags their feet and progress is very slow. Apple does the same thing when Apple sees the opportunity to support one future technology, but it means that you have to wait for an older technology to die out. Apple just stop supporting the old technology,

and then they're like, well, here's the thing. We're forcing you now to adopt this, and you might not like it, you might kick and screen, but this, trust us, this is better for you. And I think the problem is that, uh, Netflix did this and probably didn't do it as smoothly as Apple did or as convincingly and so uh they got a lot of of resistance. Plus Apple is a smaller player in its own market for compute huoters anyway, and uh, Netflix is the dominant um digital media digital

DVD really when you get down to it. Okay, next one for you? Um, okay, I'll go with one of my my vague ones. Actually this is probably my most vague one. Um, Facebook will make some huge acquisition that will all go huhh over. Um. I don't think it'll be Yahoo, but it's gonna They're gonna acquire somebody and you're going, but what what's that gonna do? Yeah, PepsiCo interesting? Facebook the choice for the new generation. Can I get a Facebook free? If you want a Facebook, you're gonna

have to pay for it? Facebook on my tab? Um, So anyway, Yeah, I think I think they're gonna make any I mean, it's not like, uh, you know, if Google purchase Twitter, you go yeah, but I mean, you know, social media and of course you know. But yeah, I think Facebook's and it may not be somebody that's bad for Facebook, but it's gonna be something that we're gonna go. But why do you need that? Um, so you know

it's it's a loose prediction. But you know, I wouldn't have said if I had said Google would launch a social network in I mean sort of along those lines, I mean, like Facebook and Spotify, that was kind of surprising. I mean you would imagine, like I mean, it wouldn't have been hard to imagine Spotify incorporating the Facebook connect as a way to connect to Spotify in the United States, but to make it the way is kind of well, that was unusual. Let's say, if if Facebook gobbled up Twitter,

that would be one thing. But I'm talking like Facebook gobbles up Xerox? What why? Why on? Or how aboutould you do that Facebook gobbles up like Hulu or something something like that? Something unusual? It doesn't quite make sense, all right? How about? Um, here's this one's kind of a gimme in a way. This is the year is the year at E three we will see the next generation consoles from Microsoft and Sonya. So we'll see the predicted that two years ago and got my rear end

handed to me on a platter. Yeah, two years running. Actually, because I think you I think you've predicted in two thousand nine and in two thousand ten. I think two thousand twelve is the year. Well, we've heard some rumors already. We've heard rumors that the successor to the three sixty will have connect like functionality built directly into the console, and that it will be even more advanced to be able to do things like to tell what mood you are in, or even be able to read your lips. Yeah,

so there's that rumor. And I've also read rumors that Sony's next UM console, the PlayStation four or whatever it might be called, will also contain some sort of connect functionality built into it. So there's a lot of a lot of money being put towards this whole connect style of gaming and interaction UH and and hopefully that will mean that we're going to see even more UH innovative

games and gameplay modes. I think a lot of the games that we've been seeing are just scratching the surface because people are still figuring out how to best use this interface, how to best leverage it. And that's that's true whenever any new unit user interface comes out. You know, the first few things that come out are kind of interesting, but they're almost more like toys than anything really useful.

And then as the technology mature, as we start seeing assuming that people adopted, we start seeing more compelling products. So yeah, I think at E three we're going to see at least a preview of the next Microsoft console and the next Sony console. It may may not come out in twelve, but we'll at least get our first preview. Okay, all right, Yeah, I have a several game uh predictions. Um, I think the one that's closest to that, sticking with my segway idea, would be the we u Um, which

is supposed to come out. Um, I think it's going to be a minor hit. I don't think. I think I think it will sell. The three DS is actually their sales have been increasing recently, so that's started to climb out of a slump. So maybe Nintendo is like on the upswing of its dip. Yeah, because I'd say in twenty eleven it did kind of start to falter a little bit. Yeah, but but once Um Games for the three D s Storty coming out, like the Mario Games Story coming out for the three DS, the sales

started to improve. So again Nintendo banking on that intellectual property that has served them so well in the past.

So yeah, maybe that We You would also have an initial success, especially if they're able to target not just the casual gamers, but the loyal like hard more hardcore gamers, not like hardcore in the sense of I need to you know, there has to be body limbs flying all over the screen for me to buy a game, but that you know, they're the dedicated gamers, the people who who will spend a lot of time and money that will go out, they'll buy the latest games as they

come out. Yeah, I think I think the The We You will be a hit among a lot of those people. But I don't think it's gonna catch on as quickly as The We itself did when it was released. I don't think there's gonna be the same line. I think it's gonna be sort of a similar at adoption rate as the three D S where people go, yeah, okay, but it's we don't really have to have that, And it's rumored to be more expensive than We was when

it launched. So that may also especially if if again, if that economic uncertainty also means that there's a downturn in general, then people may be more careful with their money and there may be less consumer spending. And that's why I'm saying a lot of the things I'm predicting hinge on the economy because in some cases, companies may say, you know what, We're gonna hold off introducing this product line until and see if maybe the economic outlook is

better than that. That sometimes happens. Um. Okay, So sticking with Nintendo, here's another crazy prediction, this one. I I go back and forth on this one. Okay, So Nintendo begins to develop a smartphone. Wow. So the idea that Nintendo decides to get into this, uh, take the next

plunge and go into the smartphone realm. Either they partner with someone where a very specific partner is going to have access to some of Nintendo's intellectual properties, or they specifically go into the business of developing a smartphone that is branded with the Nintendo where you can buy Nintendo games through the phone's ecosystem, and that it is essentially the next step in their handheld gaming market, because that's where handheld gaming is right now, is in the smartphone market.

And if you don't if you don't join that, then you might as well just get out of that industry the handheld gaming units are. It's harder and harder to sell one of those that doesn't have a phone in it. Okay, well, that's actually, uh in contrast with what you were saying a moment ago, and but in more in line with that, I had predicted that Nintendo is going to need to reduce the price that the three D s again. And

it might. It might even. I mean, the sales that kind of bounced up might very well be like end of the year Christmas present kind of thing. Right, So those sales figures I mean to say, not sales like sales prices, but sales figures. Um, it may not be that the three DS gets widespread adoption like the other Nintendo handheld systems until we see at another price drop. It was dramatic to see a price drop happened within the first half year of the three ys being on

the shelves. I have another one of those coming up that's very similar to that. Okay, well, I have one that this is a question really not so much a prediction, because there's actually a rumor out right now as we

record this, which is again early December. There's a rumor and it's been going around for a while, but I've just seen it get traction recently that the iPad three or the successor to the iPad two, whatever it might be called, if it's had two plus or whatever two s that it will have a three D screen so that you'll be able to look at stuff in three D. That is the rumor. Here's my prediction. I don't think it's gonna happen. And here's here's my reasoning why I

don't think it's gonna happen. Uh, it's it's actually got multiple levels to it. One is that the three D thing, it's an experience that doesn't it's not universal, okay, Like there are people who have vision issues or whatever who

cannot see the three D images. Uh, it's very easy to get it wrong so that you might you know, you if you have to design a screen for someone and you have to make it adjustable, because if you don't make it adjustable, if you make it try and make it one size fits all, they're gonna be a lot of people where it's not going to be the best effects because our eyes are space differently, you know, Like my eyes are not as far apart as someone else's eyes, and someone else's eyes might be um closer

together than my eyes are, and that affects how we would see a screen that has three D projection in it um. So because of that, Apple would have to design some sort of of ability to like the three ds, to adjust the level of three D, which you could get it just right without giving yourself a migraine trying to stare at this thing. But ultimately, the number one thing that I think suggests that a three D screen is not a good idea for an iPad is the interface.

The interface is a touch screen interface. Why would you create a that's a two dimensional interface? Right, Yeah, that's true. Why would you have a two dimensional interface to interact with a three dimensional screen? Yeah, you would need like an iPad cube. Yeah, it doesn't make any sense. Even if you were to include the camera so that the camera sees you, you would have to figure out how to teach the processor to understand depth, and you would

have to learn the depth. So like, if I have a three dimensional virtual environment, then that means I can I can stack data in lots of different ways. But if my interface is still a touch screen, I can effectively only put it horizontally in vertically. I can't go deep because there's no way to select that data. I always se like something that's in the background versus the foreground. In that case, UM, I think it's just too clunky.

It doesn't make sense. The only way it would make sense is if you were just doing it for the effect of watching media. So if you wanted to watch a three D movie on your iPad, I think that that doesn't make sense financially to put that kind of uh investment in for something that's so limited and functionality. So it may very well turn out that I'm wrong, and maybe an Apple, of course is very good at at designing things that that work in ways I did

not anticipate. I mean, the iPad is the perfect example of that. But based upon what I know about three D tech, and especially glasses free three D tech, and based upon the interface that the iPad uses, I just don't see it being a thing. So I'm gonna say that the iPad three or two S or whatever it's going to be called will not have a glasses free three D screen included. Yeah. Now, I have seen additional rumors that the screen will have a higher resolution display.

It's sort of a gimme, I think, um people have been wanting that since the first iPad. As soon as I Pad iPhone four came out with the retina display, people were hoping that the iPad two would support the same thing. Now, of course it did not, but now there are hopes that the next generation iPad will have

a retina display. Now, over the past couple of years, Jonavan has made a couple of predictions that you know where he was really going out on a limb and and uh turn out, you know, remember the iPad, the big failure. It was going to be uh so, so anyway, so anyway, I decided to go ahead and and and do one of my own where this this I could very easily get t boned on this one. There have been rumors that Apple is coming out with televisions, and I think I do think that's eventually going to happen.

I think they're moving into compete with people like Sony and Samsung and LG. But I don't think you're gonna see the first ones come out in Okay, I disagree. Yeah, he's going to come out with its first Apple TV in twelve. Yeah, a real Apple TV, an Apple TV, which not exists. But it's not an actual television with Apple functionality built into it, not a set top box, It's built into the television unit itself. So I say that comes out. That was one of my predictions. Awesome.

So uh, we very rarely do that, since we work independently on I don't necessarily feel strongly about it. Again, but I'm willing. I'm I'm willing to put my neck out on that one. So uh yeah, one of us will be right, one of us will be wrong, which means that one of us will get a blender and the other one will get a puppy. All right? Then? Yeah, um, so was that was that your prediction there? Or well, how many more do you have left? U don't I have a handful. I've got a few as well, so

we can we can keep going back and forth. Sort of a related thing. Um, I I predict that new Google TV products will be coming out and no one will care. Yeah, I I have no disagreement there. I think Google TV. I think it launched too early. It launched too early with not enough features, and so it got a very kind of lackluster response and it's going

to be really difficult to fight that off. Even if Google comes out with a truly compelling product to fight off the first impression people had that Google Television was kind of a well, this isn't what I was expecting. It doesn't feel like it's what I was promised. I think even if Google comes out with the perfect product now, it would be an uphill battle because people already have that impression that's just not what they want. And I think I think these products also are sort of like DVRs.

I mean, people never really rushed out to buy themselves a TVO or other stuff, but I mean people have been adopting them, but it's sort of that under their radar. It's definitely like the perfect example of the long tail. You know, it's really a long tail product where you'd have a few early adopters and their word of mouth was enough to perpetuate sales, but the sales weren't huge all in a and they weren't front loaded. They were just kind of spread out. Um, all right, well here's

one for me. At least one of the big daily deal sites will go under at least one. So these are things like living social group on scout Bob. Google has its own version Google deals, you know, so we're gonna I think at least one of those is gonna collapse because there's so the markets flooded, there's so many of them that I don't think it can sustain all of them together. Okay, UM, I have one. Apple will not announce NFC for an iPhone. We won't have near

field communications. I think I think it's probable that Google wallet will slowly grow sort of the same thing. Is that what we were just talking about. I just don't think people care right now here in the United States about near field communication, and I don't think the iPhone. I don't think Apple is going to rush out to UH to meet Google on that field of battle. Yet.

I think part of it is that more and more UH emphasis in the tech world anyway, not necessarily on the individual consumer, but in the tech world is on UH distribution centers like Amazon. So it's going further away from the point of sale retail shops in the first place.

So making that point of sale thing easier doesn't really a lot of people that there's no validity to that because that's not their shopping experience, or at least in the tech world, that's how it seems now like again from the average consumer who is going out and shopping for Christmas presents, Maybe that's not the case. Maybe there are the person who hits those brick and border stores over and over again, in which case they might really

welcome near field community patients solutions. How about Microsoft Windows tablets will debut to modest results, like they're not gonna They're not gonna take a big chunk out of the tablet market. I think I think I the the iPad will still be firmly in the lead. I think Android will be in second and Windows might take third. They might actually overtake all those touch pads that were sold

in late yea. Um. Actually I had written this down on the Predictions episode and I didn't move it over to my predictions list for I think HP is going to do something useful with web os. I think it may actually even hang onto it. So you think they're reversing what uh Leo said back in uh the former CEO of HP said back in the summer of eleven, where HP was supposedly going to get out of the

consumer computer business as well as halt developing webOS. And now both of those statements seem to be Um, well, it seemed to be in question. Yeah, now that the announcement may come by the end of but I think I think they're going to real Well, a lot of people said what are you doing? Why are you doing that? Um? And I do think although the tablets weren't selling before the discounts, um, I think the price had more to

do that with that than the webOS part. Okay, So I think is going to be the swan song for the compact disc mhm. I think that we're going to see lots of companies cut way back on manufacturing discs and start to rely more on digital distribution as their primary means of getting music out to customers for DVDs

or just CDs. CDs. I think DVD still have a little way to go, mostly because, um, it's a lot It's still easier for someone to download a CD than it is for them to You can stream movies pretty easily. Downloading a film the requires that you have more space and a faster connection to do it in a way that has a good experience for the consumers. So I

think I think we're not quite there yet. I mean, most most of our listeners are probably there, like most of our listeners are probably in the group of people who have the kind of connections and and equipment where downloading a film wouldn't be a huge deal. But for the vast majority of people out there, the big audience that you have to aim for because that's where your

money is going to be. I don't think they're there yet, but they are there as far as CD sales go, So I think CDs aren't going to disappear, but I think they're going to be more rare, and that you'll more likely have to buy things through some sort of digital distribution, either iTunes or Amazon or directly from whatever the music label is, or even the band in some cases, because we may we may. This may be the getting of the end for the major labels as we recognize

them now. They'll still, I think, be around. I just don't think that they'll be as big a power player as they were in the decades past. Um. Since this is I don't really have a good segue for this one, so I'll throw out my left field thing. I think that Canonical, the manufacturers of uh several different flavors of lenox um, will ditch Unity as the main interface for a Buntu because it has gone over like the biggest lead balloon of all lead balloons. Yeah, uh yeah, there's

not a lot of love for it. I think they may try to refurbish it, but I think they may go back to gnome as the main gnome and clature for for it. Um. Of course, it's easy. It's easy enough to to choose it. And that's something that I read recently in a in a critique of the new interface. Um. You know, it's it's not like anybody has to stick with Unity. You can go with any number of other interfaces pretty easily. Um. But yeah, there's there's been so

much uh complaint about it. I think that they're gonna go with something else or or come, you know, maybe completely overhaul. But I'm gonna say for the official prediction that they're gonna ditch it. Um. So what's next? I only have one left out of my official predictions unless I think of some while we're talking, um, and this one. Uh, it's it's it's such a lame one. I don't know why it chose this as the last one. Uh. But

you know, we've got another election year coming up. I think that tech is going to play the biggest role ever in election history this year I want to give I know, that's what I said. It was lame. I was like, you know, the more I wrote this down, the more I'm like, and water is wet, so it already has. So you know what, I'm not gonna I'm not gonna really even next year, I'm not going to count that. I mean, normally I would win at least

a donkey or an elephant out of that one. But I think, uh, I think that one is such a GIMMI that you know, people who people who would be visiting our planet for the first time would be able to tell you that within five minutes of note looking around. So yeah, okay, I have well I have several, but a couple of them I'm just gonna ditch. Um. I have four left. I think that um that I want to keep going with. One is that now, keeping in

mind this, it's been out for a short time. So even though it released in I'm gonna say that in the kindle fire will be a hit. I think it's I think it's gonna do really well over the next year. So you're you're calling it like a true success, Like a true success, I think it might be the first. Um, I agree with you. I think it might be the first non iPad to truly succeed in the market. I mean, we've got lots of other non iPad tablets out there, but I don't think any of them have been hailed

as a true success. And HPS touchpad did. Okay, I don't count. You don't count that that's a fluke because of the pricing. That doesn't mean people would have bought anything and a hundred dollars if it were in a tablet for probably like you know, if it was a Window seven tablet for a hundred bucks, that probably would have gone out and rushed out and bought those. Um. But yeah, I think that the the the Kindle Fire has the potential to be the the number two tablet.

Like if you're talking about specific models, uh, because again, the Android tablet space is so diverse that it's hard for any one kind of tablet to get true success in that field because there's just so many different ones, and you know, it requires that the consumer be informed

about his or her choice. You know, when you go if you just know what a tablet is and you know what Android is, but you don't know anything Beyond that, going into a store and shopping for Android tablets is maddening because there's so many different kinds and you don't necessarily know which ones are really gonna be good versus um, some that are just going to be slow and unresponsive and and maybe running Android one point six, you know, so um And related to that, I say that, and

there's been speculation that the Kindle fire will cause Apple to lower prices at the iPad. I say, no, I don't think. I don't think they're gonna do it now. Apple is has traditionally been sort of that premium kind of uh product, especially since Steve Jobs came back. Yeah, I mean there's aimed for that niche. Yeah, that was that was what. That's kind of their corporate identity. They're not known for marking down prices in the face of competition.

They're they're known for just pouring even more effort into innovation and marketing and convincing people that whatever it is they're coming out with is what you have to have. I can't you know, I've heard people talk about how the market forces like netbooks were supposed to bring down Mac prices. You know, that was the big thing they

didn't really do that either. Now, granted, you could also say that, well, Apple keeps coming out with more advanced hardware and then marketing it for the same price as the previous generation hardware, so in a way, prices are kind of falling sort of, but not in the traditional sense. Yeah. Yeah, um, And then let's see I said that Windows will release

two sort of lackluster adoption. Um, and that's twofold. I think it suffers from the same problem that Lion does for for the macOS, and that it's got a very different interface. And yes, before you write me, I know you can change its metro. Yeah, it's going to the

metro interface. For those of you who don't know, is the interface for the Windows eight porta bowl devices and Windows seven portable stuff that's out there now you see on there if you've seen commercials with a little colorful boxes on the phones, that's what the Windows eight you user interface is supposed to look like for computers, Yeah, which which would work be great if you have a touch screen monitor, but if you don't have a touch

screen monitor. There's some people who suggest that that particular way of organizing data is not really that intuitive because you can't navigate through it as as easily. That's one of the big things that we've talked about with that. We're plan on doing a user interface podcast at some point. We're talk about the design of a user interface and what goes into that, because there's so much more beyond

just technical uh sex. But you know, we've seen like kids pick up an iPad and that just they learn how to navigate that iPad really quickly. You know. It's it's one of those things that's just very intuitive. Yeah, So kids intuitively can figure out how to navigate these things. So there is a, uh, there is a an urge to move toward that because everyone's like, well, this, this is there's something here. It's just it's it's almost magical,

like to to use an Apple type phrase. But when you get it to a desktop modality where there's no there's not necessarily a touch screen part of the interface, it's not nearly as intuitive because you're navigating you're not navigating it the same way you would if you were, say a touch screen tablet. Yeah, and and and here's the thing. I mean, yes, you can you can operate Windows eight in that mode or in a more traditional mode but they've been marketing it at using the the

Metro stuff on that initial thing. Look what you can do here. Um. I think if they continue marketing Metro as the primary interface, people are going to be a little put off by that and they suffer from another problem. Windows seven it's really good, um, and people have been adopting it now. It's it's you know, surpassed Vista in a option at this point. UM. And I think now that XP is going out, I think people are just gonna go with Windows seven unless you know, Microsoft completely

makes it unavailable. This is kind of crazy because when you think about think about how long XP stuck around, Yeah, ten years, ten years of XP and then because it works, and then what happened was people did not like Vista, or enough people did not like Vista for it to be a problem, and uh, and then Windows seven came

around it seemed to be a big improvement. It does seem weird to go from Windows seven to Windows eight so relatively quickly when you look at how long there was a a pause from Windows XP to Windows Vista. And yes there were other versions of Windows that came out between those, but we're talking about mass adoption here. Yeah, so I think and mass adoption and and actual like personal computers as opposed to web servers and things like that. So I just don't think it's going to take off.

And my my last one, I'm gonna go with my gimme for the last one. Blizzard will release Diablo three and it will become a massive hit. Wow, I gotta get it. I gotta get a demon or something out of that. I would predict that there will be uh a dramatic increase in people complaining about right index finger pain. That's exactly possible directly as a result of blizzards of blizzards Diablo three releasing. It's going to be a hit. Yeah.

I didn't make any other predictions about any other game titles that I think might come out and next year because that that's what Grand Theft All five comes out. That'll be excited to see. I think that will be a big success. That's also another gimming people have been eager for that. But U okay, so here's my final final prediction. So you came up with it. Last prediction

has nothing to do with tech. I'm done. I predict this time next year we will be making a prediction show and we will ignore the fact that the Mayan calendar is coming at an end, and that we will just assume that the world will continue going on and that we will have to predict stuff to happen. All right, So um yeah for those of you who were you know, playing on just living it up in twelve because it was gonna be the final year. Ever, I don't think so.

So alright, alright, well let's wrap this up that those are our predictions for twenty twelve in the world of technology. If you guys have any of your own predictions you would like to share, or you have any other questions or suggestions for topics you would like us to cover in future episodes, let us know. So there's an email that addresses tech Stuff at how stuff works dot com, or drop us a line on Facebook or Twitter. Are handled. There is tech stuff hs W and Chris and I

will talk to you again in the future. Be shorted. Check out our new video podcast, Stuff from the Future. Join How Stuff Work staff as we explore the most promising and perplexing possibilities of tomorrow. The House Stuff Works iPhone app has arrived. Download it today on iTunes. Brought to you by the reinvented two thousand twelve camera. It's ready, Are you