TechStuff Predicts 2015

maintain that balance. If we end up dropping in a then obviously people are going to realize the quality of the audios. And they can't see that we're both wearing white Thai Texas, so they don't know how formal we really are. Right, We've actually decided that normally we would only communicate through our servants, but we we've given them some time off. Yes, well, uh, tom Merritt. For those of you who who may not know hosts about every

other podcast, that's not how Stuff Works. I think I think How Stuff Works and Serial are the only two you're not doing. So yeah, yeah, So I mean come on, well, unfortunately, this this episode will air well after everyone's had a chance to listen to that, although I have not. Tom, you are the host of numerous shows, as I said, including Daily Tech News Show, a phenomenal show. If you want to know what is going on in technology on a day to day basis, you gotta go check that

one out. Highly recommended. I've even been a host a few times on that show. It's been hooray. I love doing it. And I've asked Tom here to do the one thing in the world that I look forward to the most every single year, which is the end of the year, beginning of the year predictions for the next

twelve months. But instead of sticking my neck out or having Tom stick his neck out making ridiculous predictions for what's gonna happen in two thousand fifteen, we decided we were going to look at other people's predictions and then way in uh with our opinion about whether or not we agree with those predictions, or maybe maybe we conditionally agree something like that, And we've picked a whole bunch of them to go through. I have put on a

powdered wig to sit in judgment over these predictions. I I have my scrying glass here. Um it's uh, it's actually a Palin Beer. It's not quite the Palantine. You know. I've always said, Jonathan, that you know all there is to know about the scrying game. This is true. You have said that. All right. So we're gonna start with some Samsung predictions that The Verge published, and these are the ones that that I thought would be kind of

fun to begin with. The first one is that wearable technology is going to create a new era of power dressing for business leaders. So a a smart watch or other wearable device is now going to be seen as a status symbol. You're gonna be able to tell how important an executive is by the type of smart accessories they're wearing. I guess where do you? Where do you come in on this? Tom? So this is a prediction coming from Samsung, right, Yes, yeah, this is a fairly

aspirational prediction, don't you think? I agree? I feel like Samson is trying to accept this into the mind of business leaders, like you'll need a gear watch if you want to be seen as powerful, which sometimes that's the way it works. I think if anybody makes that happen, it's going to be Apple. They're the ones trying to push the fashion end of this a lot harder. I agree. I think obviously, Sam Sung, I mean, all of Sam Suck's predictions are going to have that sort of of bias,

if you will. You know, obviously it's it's how they want things to go because it's going to be where their businesses will be successful. So there's nothing wrong with that. And you know, there is something to say about drumming up enthusiasm for something that you have an interest in. I just I just don't know that there's been anything

out yet that is really going to catch on. And I mean I say that as someone who owns a smart watch, and I've got a couple of other independent smart watches that I backed on various crowdfunding campaigns that we'll supposedly get to me it's some day. But I'm an early adopter type. I don't know that we're going to see high powered executives, you know, casually pulling their sleeves back to show off their smart accessory at every

given opportunity without being mocked. Yeah, that's it's actually been. One of the things that Apple addressed when they announced the Apple Watch was the fact that watches haven't looked to that good and and that That's not to say that I am judging that Apple solve that problem or not, um, but that is that is the issue. Is they have to get that tag heure Rolex crowd to decide that they want to smart watch if they really want to

get into the high dollar item game of this. Maybe this is Samsung tip in their hand a little huh, saying we will be coming with the Rolex of smart watches this year. Well, we'll have to keep an eye out and see. I I like you, Tom, I am a little skeptical of this one. So their next one is that people will restructure their working lives around personal

power hours as technology reveals peak performance times. So this is this seems to say, as we're using these devices, they give us real time feedback on what is going on with our bodies, our heart rates. That way, you will start to see the peaks and troughs of our activity and when we are most effective, and that we will magically restructure our days so that they match those peaks and troughs and we avoid everything else, which I think sounds amazing, But I'm not sure that corporate America

is ready to two go that route. Yeah, I can't see the excuse. Oh, I'm sorry, I can't have a meeting. Then it's not during my power hours going down very well. This one, at least is less directly related to a Samsung product, right, This is a general like Samsung is great with productivity, and so you know, this is the kind of thing you'll be able to get. I'm totally cool with this one. I just don't think it's gonna

be true. I mean, I would like the idea of them telling me like, hey, you're gonna you're most productive. We've analyzed your personal data and you're most productive at these times of days. That'd be kind of cool. I just don't see that becoming a common track. And yeah, I'm lucky in that I work for a company where they are very flexible with the way we do our work. So I come in super early because I tend to

be I'm one of those people. I'm most effective first thing in the morning, and so I also tend to stay late. But if I could leave earlier, if I so chose, I just tend to have other things going on in the office, like recording episodes of tech stuff stuff. Yeah no, no, no, this is not for me, not unusual for me. But yeah, I don't. I don't see this as being something that easily gets gets rolled out. Maybe it's something we'll see happened in the United States

over time. I mean, certainly in Europe they have very different approaches to the work day. But it may be that that it'll still take some time for that to come over to North America. Um. They also said that virtual reality technology and innovative you of displays will lead to a new generation of digital shops, allowing retailers to

overcome space constraints and high rent. So I guess this would be where you'd go to a mall, except the mall is a kiosk with a head mounted display and you put that on and then you just virtually walk through all the stores, and the gear VR will be the way to do it. Um. You know, I'm actually with them right up until they say a new generation

of digital shops. I could totally see as as things like the gear VR and the Oculus Rift and Sony's Morpheus Project Morpheus come around and and and this seems to be is the year will see the first of these really hit retail that. Um. They Yeah, there will be digital shops and we'll be able to walk around the shop. Whether that will actually allow retailers to overcome

space constraints and high rent that seems more of a stretch. Well, they still have to have the inventory somewhere right right right. I mean I can see it taking a business that might have been stu I mean by the fact that they really can't afford the shop front that they need open a digital shop instead. In that case, yeah, they would overcome space constraints. But I don't Yeah, I don't see the mall Kiosks suddenly becoming a huge showroom. Yeah.

I also worry about, um, the the disorientation factor because I've played with the Oculus Rift for a while and I'm not sure I want to go to a mall that's just coded and vomit um. I mean, it's not my scene. Hey, you know, we'll not judge, but I'm with you not my not my scene either. Uh yeah, And maybe I'm just maybe I've just reached that age, Tom, I've just always loved the vomit covered mall. Well, I was thinking more about being being able to to adjust

to the disorientation of the Oculus Rift. But sure, let's go back, all right. Well, they also said that automated home systems will move from geek to sheet driven by

a dramatically improved user experience. This is one I really can get behind because we've been seeing the progression of this with stuff like Nest, despite their their smoke detector problems that they had in two thousand fourteen, we've seen these sort of systems that are starting to get more and more interconnected, become more user friendly, easier to install, more attractive, and less of the Jerry Riggs systems that a lot of geeks were using the bleeding edge adapter

adopters rather and uh so I actually agree with this one. I think we will see a lot more automated home systems enter into the mainstream. Yeah, this is one that you could easily dismiss his self share of incause Samsung Smart Home exists, But I think that doesn't matter. I think they're totally right. Maybe geek Tschika is overstating at

a touch, but yeah, I'm with you. I think automated home systems this year will come into their own and we'll see, like you say, the like Nest become even more popular, more competitors for that, and more people who aren't on the bleeding edge, uh, saying oh, yeah, I think I might try out one of those smart lightbulbs,

slash thermostats, slash smoke alarms, etcetera. Yeah, I think it's kind of the way I see it as I see the automated home system year of two thousand fifteen be kind of like the fitness wearable of two thousand fourteen, where we saw two thousand fourteen we saw numbers double in in fitness adoption wearable adoption, but it was still it's still relatively small compared to the overall consumer market, but it shows a trend of growth. So I think

that's what we're gonna see. Definitely with you on that one. And then I love this one. I don't know that I agree with it, particularly living in the state of Georgia, but every child born the next twelve months will learn coding as a core subject alongside numeracy and literacy. Did you say codeine ding programming? Yeah? Yeah, not no, no, not not opiates. That's good. That's good because I would

totally disagree with that one. This one, you know, it throws you off the way they phrased it here where they say, like every child born in the next twelve months will learn coding. You gotta keep reading because it's like, no, they won't, little baby Pappy learning right, right. But what they're saying is as they grow up over the next twelve to thirteen years, coding will become a course subject. And I kind of think they're right about this. You

know that. The nice thing about this prediction for them is that's going to take a while before they're proven right or wrong. Yeah, it's a clever way to do right. You're saying, the baby is born this year will and now a prediction that will take twelve years to prove through. Yeah, yeah, So, uh look cool. I like that you're optimistic about this. I'm a little more pessimistic simply because I see so many issues with the various school programs that are already

in existence. I do think cod coding is a very Porton's skill set to to learn. It's something that I learned on my own, and even then it was very limited. I mean I was working in Apple Basic at the time. Um, so it's one of those things I think definitely needs

to be taught. If you talk to computer scientists professors, they always mentioned about how incoming classes coming into the freshman level computer science courses have little to no experience encoding usually at the college level, and that it's very I mean, that's the reason why we see things like the Raspberry Pie coming out like it was supposed to be an inexpensive way to help young kids learn and

get interested in programming. So I certainly many programs and I don't mean the pun in that case, uh, that are trying to encourage education to pick up programming and coding as as something that they need to teach that I feel like over the time scale they're saying, which is, you know, children born next year will grow up into a world where it becomes that that it's almost inevitable to me. But I also see where you're coming from, John, nothing where it actually uh it actually is going to

take a lot to get it there. Um, there's my My my belief in the prediction is because there just seems to be an overwhelming force pushing for it. But it's not gonna happen next year. It's not even gonna happen the year after that. It's gonna it's gonna take that force to continue to build up and and people starting to see the benefits of it directly and and all of that. So yeah, it's gonna take probably five

to ten years before it actually happens. But then that still works with this predict right, I mean, yeah, this is that, And you make a really good point. Plus things that I didn't even consider, things that will probably talk about a little bit later in this episode, uh, that have unfolded also create a real impetus to teaching people how to code things like security breaches, where we're going to knee a new generation of people thinking about security in a new way to protect the data that

we have. I mean, two thousand fourteen was the year of the security breach. We had so many eBay you had, you had target yet Kmart, you had mount Gox getting destroyed. I mean it was entertainment and timely picture. Yes, yes, so this is definitely something I could I could see as being a real, a real incentive to try and get coding into schools more more universally. So all right, I'm coming around to that one. Well, I've I've got some other predictions here. Here's some from the street dot com.

And the first one is kind of interesting that Facebook in sometime in two thousand fifteen will come out with a Facebook for Work campaign, which would make it more of a competitor to LinkedIn, and it would incorporate things that Facebook's already worked with, things like instant messaging or maybe even bringing back some of the Facebook email stuff they experimented with earlier, and that it would also include probably some form of productivity, cloud based software, you know,

doc sharing, collaboration. And so the thought here is that Facebook, in order to grow, uh, you know once once you hit a billion users, it's it's hard to find those opportunities, is really going to aim at the enterprise level to create something that specifically allows companies to work together. But in the Facebook realm, do you agree with that? I think it is almost a hud certain that Facebook has at least one project underway exploring this, and probably multiple

projects exploring this. When there's a lot of you know, Microsoft Bot Yamur long time ago, LinkedIn is extremely popular. There's a lot of case studies to show that social networks in the workplace, you know, are helpful in this in that way. And I can't believe that Facebook wouldn't be exploring this. It's a different matter of whether they will get it to the point where they say, yes, we've got a product that we're gonna we're gonna launch

this year. The one thing that I think people forget though, which might make you think, I don't know if Facebook is gonna want to do this? Would work? Places want to be associated with the Facebook name because it's you know, it's got all of this baggage about personal sharing and privacy, etcetera. Facebook is now lots of other companies, you know, the most prominent being Instagram, but they own lots of other projects like paper that they launched that uses Facebook more

as a back end for something. I could see them basically creating a startup within Facebook that's not called Facebook, doesn't market themselves as Facebook, that does this. That seems to be the most likely way that this happens. I agree. I think that if they position themselves in such a way where it's not you know, not Facebook for work, which and I don't mean to suggest that the street dot com feels like that would be the name of the service. Obviously they had to call it something for

their prediction, but I agree. I think if they marketed a different way, but use the Facebook back end as the platform upon which all this was built, it makes perfect sense. Um, it is an untapped market for Facebook, apart from I mean, you could argue that Pages is kind of them dipping their toe in that, but that's a different That's a forward facing, a customer facing approach as opposed to something that allows companies to do the work they need to do, uh internally. So yeah, I

agree with that one. To the next one, I'm not so sure about. I go back and forth on it. Amazon is going to get there, gosh darn delivery drones in the air before the end of two thousands, get their drone on. Yeah, that was the prediction they went They went on to say that they felt that the f a A and Congress would be under intense pressure to allow this to happen, and that that alone would be enough to propel the issue forward so that Amazon

would get the clearance. A couple of companies have already received some clearance to use drones in commercial matters, but not Amazon. So the thought is that by pointing out these other cases, Amazon would be able to make a very strong argument to get their drones in the air. Do you think that is true. Do you think by the end of two thousand fifteen, the stuff that you will be ordering for the holidays for your friends and

family will be delivered by drone. If I live in Sydney, Australia. Possibly, but yeah, I don't. The f a A is famously not sensitive to pressure. They're not pressure sensitive. Uh. I think I think back to how long it took to get the ability to keep your phone on during takeoff even an airplane mode. This is this is not an agency that moves fast, and they've proven that with the drone issue. Uh. And they've shown in all of the decisions they've made about the drone issue that they are

going to continue to drag their feet. They wouldn't describe it that way. They would say, you know, be cautious and careful. And so no, they're they're not going to be able to fly Amazon drone shipping in the United States by the end of this year. We might have a little movement on on the approval. They might get a test site by the end of this year maybe, but as far as launching a service, absolutely no way. Now.

In other countries like Australia that I mentioned, where they're they're much more open about drone testing and allowing people UH to fly this around. It's still an outside possibility, but I think at least could happen there. It's definitely not gonna happen in the US. Yeah, I have to agree with you once again. Um, I can't imagine the f a A even with the argument that other businesses

are able to kind of try this out. I mean, when you look at the size of Amazon's delivery business, they just that the lot of that many drones flying through the air dropping packages, willy nilly, is enough to send most people to say, we need to be really careful and make sure this works of the time before we agree to it, because this is an incredibly huge and diverse and complicated system. So uh yeah, I will

be absolutely shocked if Amazon's drone program is in the air. Uh. It also will mean that will probably by the time Amazon does get this launched. Literally, um, we're else gonna see the competing services like Google's proposed drone delivery service. So at that point we may not ever see the sky again. Yeah, that'll just be covered in drones, just covered in drones. Yeah, you you'll but you'll get your

electric toothbrush on time, So that's good alright. Our next prediction was that in two thousand and fifteen, Uber will file an I p O. Uber will go public in two in fifteen. That's despite the various trials and tribulations Uber has had UH not just with trying to get UH trying to get a foothold in various markets that have resisted Uber moving in, but also the internal issues

that have faced Uber. So do you think Uber is going to be able to overcome all that and go forward in declaring H or to to file an I p O. And my instinct is to say no, that that would be a bad idea. They really need to focus on their public image, etcetera, etcetera. But two things make me think that I'm wrong in having that impulse. One is, whenever I think that about a company going I p O, they always go ip O anyway, because the reason they put out their stock has nothing to

do with my instincts. They usually have some other, much more arcane financial calculation that shows them that it is the right time. And the other thing I would say is the folks at Uber don't really seem to mind if people have a perception of them that they don't agree with. They go ahead and do what they want anyway. Like operating their service in places that have declared it illegal, for instance. So yeah, I think it's probably like that if Uber thinks it's the right time to I p

O the l I p O this year. Now I've got another related question this, This doesn't have to do with the prediction, just uh, I want to get your perspective on this. Uh. You know, Uber is often referred to as part of the the sharing economy. Do you actually see Uber as as a type of sharing kind of service. I always think of Uber as really a taxi replacement. I mean that I've used it, but I don't think of it as sharing like the way I

thought the sharing economy was intended to be used. And actually I think that's the problem that Uber has run into an Airbnb start to run into this a little bit as well, which is it started as Hey, it's just somebody who wants to use a thing they already have and make a little extra money off it. Right, I'm going to have a ride, and so I'm going to make my car available when I'm driving somewhere, and it's become people who said, oh, that's a really great idea.

I'm going to become a professional at that, and then Uber has to start vetting the drivers, and then Uber has to start taking more responsibility for the system as a whole and institute surge pricing, and suddenly you're right, it is a taxi service. So I think it has evolved beyond just being the sharing economy. Like I think of the sharing economy, Airbnb still exists more in that where it's I can say, Okay, I'm going to rent out the place that I live in for a couple

of weeks. But even then, the airbnb economy has become so big you have to do a lot to prepare your place for someone to stay in it. It's less of the couch surfing feel. And I think Uber's well beyond that. Like just because you own a car doesn't mean you're just gonna hop in and start using Uber as a driver. I mean, I totally agree. Well, how about a couple of predictions. These came from a site

called Bread and beyond that. I assumed the predictions were made quite some time ago, but they are for two fifteen. But here's one that I thought was incredibly optimistic. They said they believe that Google glass will head into mass production in two thousand and fifteen. Mm. Yeah, yeah, I can. I'll give that one like a s Okay, you're you're

more optimistic than I am. Although I well, I'll say this, Google has proven time and again that they are willing to charge into something, whether there's any proof that there's going to be a modicum of success or not a lot. I think there are a lot of strikes against Google Glass. I say this as someone who owns Google Glass. I love Google Glass, but there have been I think most of the coverage of Google Glass, the vast majority of it has really been couched in caution, saying it's not

really ready yet. It's not it's not appealing enough to consumers, and that makes me think that it's just enough of a risk, considering that this is a hardware thing as well, that Google may not jump in by the end of two thousand and fifteen. But that's that's just based upon the thing, the various articles I've read. Uh, and you know, I, well, I have mine, so I don't I don't have a dog in this fight. I've got my pair. So yeah, but don't you want the new pair, the more stylish pair,

the more capable pair with a better resolution. Well, yes, of course I do. Yeah, exactly, that's why. And and Google has formed so many partnerships with design companies, people who do eyewear. I feel like this has been on simmer because they're busy making sure that what they come out with looks a lot better. Uh. And as we saw there were those leaked snapchat emails about them partnering

with an eye word company. In fact, I think they might have acquired uh, the eyewear company that makes a kind of Google glass, except it's not actively connected to the Internet. It doesn't have WiFi in it. You have to download the video later, and it's very focused on video. But they looked like stylish glasses, and that that's really the big thing that I think people think of when they think of Google glasses, that they're kind of awkward looking.

And so Google, don't forget they made partnerships with several different eyewear companies. I I would be very surprised if we didn't see at least a line of stylish Google Glass showed off at that maybe Google I oh in the summer, uh and then possibly launched in I can also see them sort of saying, well, we're going to do another pilot program for certain people to try these out to kind of build the buzz back up around them being stylish before they actually put them in mass production.

So that's why i'm more because they might not quite go into mass production until Okay, all right, well how about this one. This is also from Brent and beyond. Firefox OS will flop and never go mainstream. Well, the

OS from the mobile device. Um, yes, I'm going to make the same prediction about sail Fish and all the other operating systems that have small market share, Like, why are you picking on Firefox O S. Yeah, I I don't think anyone has huge expectations for Firefox O S. I kind of hope that it catches fire and I think it has a shot at catching on because the developing market, especially for low cost phones is kind of open for everybody right now, and they've got a compelling offering.

But I think it's pretty obvious the cards are stacked against them, So I'm not going to dispute that, but I'm still cheering for Firefox away. Well, yeah, you've got you've got the mountain of Android and iOS. Basically, I mean, Microsoft can't overcome those problems, so I mean, and they've been in this game for a while. Of course, you could argue that they've just been playing the wrong game

the entire time, but but they've been in it. I guess my reaction is because they say Firefox OS will flop, as if the entire world is cheering, like Firefox OS is going to be the big hit of And I think to flop it would have to have that kind of expectation, I don't thin so, so it's more like Firefox OS will U we'll we'll never get beyond a modest but respectable market cheer. Yeah, that's probably right on right there. All right, How about this one? This is

another pretty ambitious one. We might see autonomous cars before the end of Wow. Really that's true, but I'm very skeptical that that would be true. I can't believe it. I mean, I I've covered this so much. But the Google, of course, they have their prototype uh smart cars that they produce like a maybe like a hundred of them. They're not meant to go on sale there specifically for testing. But uh, if if we saw a truly autonomous car

for sale in it would shock me. I would I I would also be shocked and lying on the floor next to you. Okay, yeah, because because just for my listeners here, it's not the technology that I really see as the big obstacle, although there you know, you still want to get the technology in a form factor that's going to be pleasant. You don't want a car that has a big, weird antenna things sticking out of it that's gonna make everyone stare at your vehicle. Uh, or

maybe you do, I don't know. But the real challenge I think is going to be legislative. How do we convince the various UH regions to allow this sort of thing. Now, there's some places that have already passed laws that have made it very simple for Google to test their vehicles in those areas. But the thing about cars is their mobile and they go to different places. So what if your car suddenly becomes illegal when you pass a certain area.

Wouldn't wouldn't a self driving car have to already be in the approval process to be able to be sold. But I would imagine, I would imagine, So, I mean, I can't imagine that that would move quickly enough for that to happen. So that's another reason. I mean, especially when you look at the Google cars they have essentially two controls, which is start this car and turn this car off, and then everything else is handled by I guess pairing with a phone or something along those lines.

But there's no break or accelerators. So even if you wanted to take manual control of one of those prototype cars, you couldn't. There's no option there. They in fact, they had to modify them to meet the street rules because of that. People, you know people, they're like, look, as long as you have a stop button, that's really all that matters, and and they got a lot of flak for that. So there's still a lot of a lot of fear, uncertainty, and doubt around self driving cars. And

then I personally, I'm really looking for it. I don't drive, so I'm really looking forward to self driving cars coming around and being being a real thing because I know that these systems can react at a fraction of the time that it takes a human to react in those situations. It's really only the worst case scenario where something has gone irreparably wrong with the system that you would have to worry about something. And I don't think it's as common as a lot of people seem to think it is.

Especially when you compare it to all the terrible things that can happen to a human behind the wheel of a car, where something as simple as a distraction can cause a terrible accident. Yeah. Absolutely, it's it is a psychological reluctance, not a scientific reluctance. Yeah. Well, I d C also had some predictions. One was that the fablet market. Are you a fan of the term fablet? Okay, that's

I'm glad to hear it. Those those phone tablet hybrids, the enormous phones like the six plus and the next to six uh that that market will grow as people demand these larger devices, but wearables will underperform, which is kind of going against what that first prediction said. I think the the idea that I and and by the way, when you when you asked me if I don't like fablett, you said the name, and that's where met right. I don't want people to get the misimpression that I don't

like six inch devices and they're fine. You know, I don't have a moral stance on them. If that's the kind of size of uh screen you need them, that's great, And I know that's right for a lot of people. I think that this is a very safe prediction for I dc like, oh, we got our first couple of six inch phones this year, so we'll have more and

therefore we'll sell more. I think that's true because we haven't seen a big backlash or disappointing sales from the next to six or the iPhone six plus, So why wouldn't we sell more? The wearables underperforming is is more of it not a risky prediction, but that to me is more of a substantial prediction that what we've been seeing with wearables won't be changed by the onslaught of more wearable releases, in which we're definitely going to see

We're gonna see more products put out there. What they're saying is people still won't flock to them. I think

that's probably true. Yeah, I mean there's certain certain markets that I think, Uh, wearables obviously appeal to the fitness market, being like that was such a great way of getting into the whole fitness or the wearable industry, I should say, because it appeals in so many ways that that is a that is a particular space in our lives where we crave to have that feedback, that data, where we can either use it to figure out if we're if

we're pushing ourselves enough, if we're pushing too hard, we're not doing something correctly. It makes perfect sense. Going beyond that is a real challenge, and I don't I think

it's I think it's a challenge will overcome. I don't know necessarily that the products that are going to be coming out in two thousand and fifteen are going to do that where we start to see wearables that are addressing other things in our lives apart from fitness and activity tracking, to make it more of a um something that we absolutely must have. I still think the fitness ones are gonna do fine. I think those are gonna

continue to do well. Um assuming that the bands that people may don't have medals in them that cause folks to break out. So don't they keep saying it's not the band, it's not the band. Yeah, I think they do. But you know, I didn't own one of those, so I didn't have that particular experience. I am particularly sensitive to nickel. I can't have nickel against me or else I break out, So I just get careful about any

kind of wearable device at this point. But yeah, I I think I agree, and especially not just that we're going to see more of the fablet form factor come out in two thousand and fifteen, but just that it's it's interesting. It's a reverse of the trend that we used to see. Do you remember back when the trend was that our phones were getting smaller and smaller, and that became like a status symbol if you had a

really small phone. Yeah, I remember being so proud and excited that I had gotten a Motorola razor because it was so thin and small, right and slide it in a pocket. I remember there was an snl skit where Will Ferrell had a character who pulls out a phone that's so small. I think you had to use tweezers to do the little flip. Wasn't that a Steve Job's imitation? It may have been. There was. There was one of the it was one of the mall ones. Jimmy Fallon

was in. It was laughing the whole time. I know that doesn't narrow it down at all. Right, So there was the tonight show, the entire run exactly it was that the roots came out. It was amazing. So but no, it's so funny that now it's the other way around. And of course the obvious answer to that is that now we have these devices that can act as a second screen, and obviously screen landscape is going to be

really important in that in that form factor. Now we now we've shifted what our phones do, so it wouldn't make sense to continue to push for smaller and smaller phones in that new world. So, uh, it's just funny to me that we've we've gone from an era where we always thought the future is going to have us have smaller and smaller phones. Now it's no, we want bigger and bigger phones because it stopped being about voice.

Right when it was all about voice, they're like, well, we don't, we don't need an object, We just want to hear the voice. And now it's the opposite. Smartphones are rarely about calls. They are almost entirely about apps and and and messaging, So you need a screen to be able to take advantage of that. That's absolutely correct. Well, here's another incredibly risky prediction from I d C. The Internet of Things will continue to grow and drive innovation,

with embedded tech and preventive maintenance becoming really important. I think you could just drop off things. Yeah, yeah, I don't. I don't know how we could be how we can make that not be true. You know, I guess. I guess there's still some people who might be skeptical about the Internet of Things just to play Devil's advocate, uh and and that it will end up just being a bunch of buzzwords that don't do anything, so that that's why they make this prediction. Is like, no, it's gonna

continue to grow. We're gonna tendue to have more sensors. The one prediction that I saw someone make out there that I've started to think about is the idea of the Internet of things being rentable, so that you don't buy the things, but there's an't there's an internet of things out there you can take advantage of when you

need it. Interesting. I could see that because I mean that it obviously if you were to to jump into the world to the Internet of things, if you wanted to incorporate embeddable technology in your world, that's a pretty big upfront cost that not everyone can do. But something along those lines where it's more like a service as opposed to something you own, I could I could see that, like the one. The one example I saw I had

to do with the insurance company. It was like Internet of Things as a service, so that you can only pay for just the amount you actually need. Mm hmm. Now I like that idea. Someone should get on that. As for whether or not the Internet of Things ends up being a bunch of buzzwords, at least in the short term, it doesn't matter because so many companies are so invested in bringing this kind of stuff to market

that it's going to be a factor. Whether or not it works is another question, but it's gonna be out there, so it's it's definitely gonna play an important role in it. Maybe is the year where we decide whether or not it ends up working and or what it works for. Like, I have a feeling that it's just too broad of a concept for it not to work somewhere in some niche somewhere, and I think we'll figure out what that is in the coming year, or at least in going

back to automotives. I mean, you could easily see an Internet of things approach helping out there with everything from uh, just route planning for your daily commute to on a city planning level to figure it out, Well, what's the best way we need to relook at at how all

of our intersection uh traffic lights time out. And now we've got all this amazing data that we can sift through and actually make a city that you're not gonna be sitting in traffic for you know, two and a half hours every day, Tom, you live in Los Angeles, Right, yeah, we we don't have that problem here because, as the City of Los Angeles is proud to point out, all of our lights are timed across the entire city, which

has solved all traffic proble. Was in Los Angeles, exactly the same in Atlanta just the other day, as we were stopped on the highway, I got my car and just marveled at how well everything was moving. Alright, Well, moving over to to Gartner, Uh, there was There were a lot of predictions. They said lots of stuff was gonna double in two thousand and fifteen. For example, getting back to the Internet of Things, that the number of

physical objects connected to the Internet would double. That would be from six fifty million to thirty one point three billion. I guess that's a lot. They also thought that the market for three D printers would go from a billion dollars to two billion dollars, so it would double as well, that we would see twice as many car models with connectivity to the Internet as we did in two thousand and fourteen. I don't know that that's that huge of a number really when you get down to it, depending

upon what you mean by connectivity. And then um, we'll see more companies create positions for chief data officers in chief digital officers. So a lot of these I I I don't know that I would agree that all of them are going to double. I certainly see all of these being trends that are on the rise. Yeah, I don't know if I doubled down on Gardner's predictions, but I and that's really what Gardner is saying. I mean, Gardner deals in numbers, so they're probably pretty close to accurate.

But they're saying like, we are going to see significant increases in all of those areas. And I think the right. I think three D printing is ripe for its big moment in the sun. Uh you know it's I don't think it's quite to the level of three D printer in every home yet, but I think it'll start to hit the mainstream probably, so I'm with most of those. I actually think the chief Digital Officer chief data officer is definitely going to be affected by what we talked

about earlier with the security hacks. Yeah, I think it will become even more of a security position, or even a position of chief cyber security officer. As much as I hate that term, it does convey what companies mean when they talk about it. M hmm, that's excellent point, I agree. Uh. Moving over to to Recode, I love that almost all of their predictions were about cloud based services and mobile devices. We almost I didn't write it down.

Who was this Steve Sonofsky, Microsoft head of UH office and so yeah, it was all about cloud based services, mobile devices. I love that the first one was about the behavior of millennials and talking about UH, the behavior of millennials on top of the security issues related to

having emails that contain attachments. The problems that that that ends up bringing along with companies means that we're going to see more of a move to alternatives to email, stuff like instant messaging or other means of linking to content but not actually sending it as an attachment so

that you don't have all these copies floating around. Uh, meaning that email isn't gonna die, but it's importance is going to decrease in two thousand and fift What do you think, Yeah, I I think this plays into a couple of other things. I think the idea of ubiquitous cloud is going to make it so that you can use that option more often. It's interesting to me that Google this very week announced that you can now attach

Google Docs to email, not just send a link. So there's obviously still a demand out there for No I actually needed the attachment. I don't want to link. I want the document to be there in their inbox, even offline, once that email has been downloaded. Uh. So it maybe a little early for getting rid of attachments altogether, but it is certainly is more efficient. So having that option is great, and it will continue to be used in more than greater numbers. I think we are starting to

learn as a society how to use email. I don't think email is gonna go away. I don't think email is gonna die, but I think he is pointing to something important here, which is there are times when you need to message some one and people sometimes use email for that and I think we're we're learning, oh, you know what, don't use email as if it's into messenger, use instan a messenger, use text messaging for that. Uh, and we'll probably start getting better at figuring out what

tool to use for the right communication. John and I also agree with the point that we're seeing, you know, the millennial generation moving through the workforce, getting promoted, getting further up into leadership positions over time. Obviously that's going to be go hand in hand with a shift in the way we use the technology, because just because there's a generational difference. I mean, I remember when I first got into the workforce that there was a generational difference.

I work for people who asked me to print out all their emails, so they had to have all of them like printed out on file. They didn't they didn't understand that they could go and look at the digital version anytime they wanted to, and that it was in fact easier to track it down then it filing away of a printed out email. So it is one of

those things that does change over time. And again, maybe it's just that I've gotten to this certain age where I'm just thinking, like, don't maybe use all those new fangled messagings things. I'm tired of learning things. I don't wanna don't make me snap my chat. I don't want to instant my Graham. I just want my emails. Yeah, yeah, no, it's funny. I worry about that, Like, am I assifying?

Or is this a bad app? I just don't know anymore. Yeah, yeah, I I sit there and I usually have to turn to my wife and say, does this come across as someone who is rationally pointing out flaws in the design of an app? Or does just descended into cranky old man territory? And uh, yeah, it's a it's a coin

flip usually you know, situation. Uh. There was also an interesting prediction that said that tablets in two thousand and fifteen would make a surprising come back, that they would become more uh popular, which is particularly interesting because there was another site, msp Mentor that predicted that tablets would fade away as a secondary device behind laptops and smartphones. So somebody's gonna be wrong, but somebody's gonna be right. So who do you think it's gonna be right? Tom,

I'd say, Jonathan, don't call it a comeback. Tablets have been here for years. That's fair. Uh No, I I think probably we won't see a huge spike in tablet sales, but they're far from dying. My theory of why we've seen a stall in tablet sales is based on my own experience, which I have an original next to seven

that I still use. I'm just now getting to the point where I think maybe I should get a new seven inch tablet because there are a few apps that have come out that won't run on it because it's old. The operating system still up to date, but it just doesn't have the oomph uh to run certain things. And I have an iPad third generation that I still haven't run. I haven't run into a problem with. So tablets are more like desktop computers in that way you can use

them for longer. And so, yeah, we had a huge spike in sales of tablets as people discovered them and started using them and buying them. And of course we're going to have a stall as people say I've got a tablet, I don't need to buy another tablet, And then it will start to come back as those tablets get older and you're like, wow, this one's this one's starting to not be as useful, I need to upgrade, get a new one. Uh And and so I think we'll maybe see a slight rise, a slight come back.

I don't I don't think it'll be sharp, but probably

a little bit of a come back. In tablets, I can see that being more of a kind of a cyclical thing, Like when when the first iPad came out and then iPad two came out, we saw a lot of people upgrading from the iPad to iPad two because the novelty was still there, right, the desire to have the newest, shiniest thing, this thing that was so amazing that Apple had come out with this tablet that no one had ever made a table buble it before, or at least no one made one that was appealing to

a mass consumer market like Apple did. And then the iPad two recaptured some of that excitement. And I think since then it's it's people have realized, like you were saying, that this is a device that is there's no need for me to upgrade it yet there's not a compelling enough reason it does what I need it to do. And I'm actually seeing that across a lot of different things now where people are kind of settling in the

way they would with computers. They buy a computer and they think, well, sure, the computer I owned this year, you know, I bought it last year. It's nowhere near as fast as the newest ones, but it does everything I needed to do, So I'm gonna stick with it until I need to upgrade. I'm seeing that more with other kinds of electronics now, so I and I do think we are hitting that that part of the phase.

I also have an excess seven. I also I'm getting into the point where I'm thinking it might be time to upgrade because there's some loading issues I'm having now. Things are taking longer, gets it just gets a little slower at running everything. Yeah, so, uh yeah, I can. I can see it that way. I I that makes more sense to me than calling it a comeback. It definitely makes more sense in that respect, as opposed to

people just suddenly rediscovering tablets again. Um well, I've got a couple of questions that are just general questions for you, Uh, something that I've been wondering every single year. I kind of have an NFC prediction, which was always that NFC is going to continue to be pushed and it's going to continue to encounter resistance for adoption and we're not going to see it happen. But do you think that two thousand fifteen is finally the year that NFC actually

enters mainstream use in the United States. I think Apple may have done NFC the biggest favor it could ever have as a standard by putting in an Apple Pay. I still don't think NFC is going to be a huge thing that people thought it was going to revolutionize the way you use devices. I just I just don't see that. There's plenty of things that can do similar things to NFC, which is why I don't think we've

ever seen people get on board. At the same time, I feel like we're seeing NFC follow the route of Bluetooth. Bluetooth was out in comdex right, and it it took years for the technology to finally figure out, oh, that's what we can use bluetooth for. And at first it was bluetooth headsets for your cell phones, and and then it marched on into other things. So NFC maybe following that more plotting route to like, oh, Apple Pay is

sort of the equivalent of the Bluetooth headset. The Bluetooth earpiece, and and and we'll we'll have another one coming along here in the next year or two. That. Oh, NFC is also good for that, But I still don't think it's going to be that revolutionary thing that some people

said it would become. Yeah, I think the one thing that is really in favor of NFC, apart from Apple getting involved, obviously, that just adds more confusion and competition in that that space because we've seen vendors, so some retail establishments resist Apple Pay because they have their own NFC based payment system base. But yeah, right, that's true. Uh So it's it's interesting to see, right, have you heard of these things? Uh? They used to be on

movie posters and no one knew why. Um no, it's it's I think I think the the hack the hacks we saw with the Kmart incident, for example, that Kmart's credit card machines were that essentially hacked, that people got credit cards that information that way. That is adding a lot more pressure, and the United States government is adding more pressure calling for more secure systems to protect consumers. That that might end up helping more than anything else,

at least in two thousand fifteen. Uh, whether we see n FC being the solution, I don't know. I think Chip and Pin is another possibility, UM, not necessarily in NFC implementation, but I think it's got the best chance in two thousand fifteen that it's ever had. I agree with you there. I don't know that it's gonna make it, but it's it's way closer than it was in two thousand fourteen. Uh. And then my last question for you, a burning question everyone wants to know. Will the Firefox

browsers switching to Yahoo search engine make a big difference? Huge? Huge? You're gonna see Google selling off YouTube and it's headquarters buildings. All of their autonomous cars are now going to come with drivers, right right, They're gonna hire drivers. No. I I think it will be interesting. I think it'll be good for Yahoo. I think it will make Google a little sharper. But that company Google, UH in particular, UH

has way too much money as it is. UH. So I think all this does is pokes the bear and lets them know that they can't rest on their laurels. UH. And it gives Marissa Mayer a victory, which she desperately needed. So it's good for Yahoo in that way. And yeah, I mean it makes a difference. I don't know that it it really is going to upset the balance of the search engine marketplace too terribly. Um, you know, being got onto uh iOS in Syrie. Uh and and that

didn't like shake the ground. Bing is the default search engine on iOS and a couple of different areas, just not in the browser. Yet. Maybe it'll get in the browser. I don't know. I think I think those sorts of things pale by comparison to Google's ridiculously dominant market share worldwide, especially in Europe where it's like abo. Yeah, I agree, I agree. I when I read about it, I thought, well,

that's interesting, and I respect what's going on. Um, it almost sounded like Google was just bidding up its own uh its own claim to Firefox, just enough for it to be inconvenient for anyone else. And I disclosed that my wife is an employee of Google, So don't believe anything I say. Okay, that's fair, all right, we will

just completely disregard the last question. Well, well then, Tom, is there anything else you want to say, any other predictions that we didn't mention that you felt were interesting or controversial or anything like that. Um, no. I you know what, we didn't bring up any of the like will Apple release X because we know they're doing the Apple Watch that's coming next year, that's announced, and you know, there are certain things you can count on every year.

You can count on updates to the hardware from Apple, that sort of stuff. Uh, there's not really any point in predicting that. I guess the click the burning question that we've had for years. The other burning question we've had for years is an Apple television Are we gonna Are we actually going to get that? I saw that Jane Munster said we're gonna get one, in which you know, every year Jean Munster has been saying we're gonna get one in a couple of years, so that seems pretty consistent.

I don't disbelieve that he has sources on the inside. That's ay. Yeah, Apples still working on something regarding television. I just I don't know that we'll see it this year. That that is such a problematic arena. I guess the one thing that I would say is, don't forget that both Verizon, Dish, and Sony plan to come out with internet only cable television services in the United States. In

the coming year. We don't know what shape they're gonna take, but they will have many of the same channels that you would get in a normal cable or satellite package. And of course you have HBO saying they're gonna launch a direct to the consumer Internet service. Cb I already launched their direct to the Internet direct to the consumer Internet service, so that landscape will changed by the end of the year. I don't know if Apple is UH is going to get in on it yet, but maybe

in after we see how that all shakes out. That is interesting. It could be that, who knows, Maybe at the predictions episode for for sixteen, we start talking about serious, you know, some serious talk about the decline of cable at that point. I mean, we're we're we've been talking about this for years and we've been seeing this. I mean, you've got a whole show devoted to this kind of thing.

Cord cutters or cord killers is er. Yeah, I apologize, I I am such a guy, you know, but no chord killers where you talk about these kind of things, and it's something that we've seen for a while. Heck, I talked to CNN about it several years ago and then got in trouble um. But now we're we're actually seeing this come to fruition. It's it's pretty interesting and exciting to see it, you know, roll out on a

broader scale. And I really do wonder by the end of what that's going to mean for the cable industry as a whole, not just um, not just a channel here are a channel there. I mean the it may open up opportunities, and I'm sure it's going to put a lot of people in a very stressful position for most of Yeah, I think we might be seeing peak cable right now. Yeah, I think you might be right.

I mean, if we get to a point, if we ever get to that point where people can go more a lak heart, which is it's incredibly hard to do. It's incredibly from a from a provider standpoint, it's incredibly hard to do because you're a counting as a provider on the money from your big name channels to support the ones that supply content to a niche audience but just don't make the money that they would in order

to survive on their own. If you enter into a world where people just get to pick and choose, some stuff is gonna die. It's just not gonna it's not going to be able to maintain the level of production that people expect. So it may be that, who knows, in a couple of years, our expectations for what is entertainment is going to change fundamentally. Yeah. I don't even think that necessarily means we'll have worse things to watch either. It just means that we might have fewer outlets or

a different selection of outlets. I mean, don't forget Amazon, Prime, Hulu and obviously Netflix all making high quality television entertainment that they deliver through their internet only services. So it's not like there's a lack of providers out there. I think some of those on off channels that not as many people watch, though, go the way of the nineties.

You just you think of them as as something old fashioned. Right, Well, I mean, if this just means that I get more quality programming, like a re a a reincarnation of the Tick, because it's coming back on Amazon, I'm happy. I love that series, all right. Well, Tom Merritt, thank you so much for joining me on this episode. Thank you, Jonathan. It's it was. It was a fun talk. I can't believe it's already been through an hour. Here, this was

just time flew by. This was fun. Yeah, this is this was This was the right way to do a predictions episode. Two smart movie looks great other people and not talking about UM. So, where can people find your stuff? Well, tom Merritt dot com to ours two t s is my main website to collects all the shows I do in one place, so you can find the subscription page

there and and find out the different shows. But probably of most interest to it folks interested in tech stuff would be Daily Tech News Show, Daily Tech News Show dot com. I do it entirely crowdfunded. Uh so it's absolutely free and add free. Go check it out. We do it every day Monday through Friday, most of the day. We'll have a little holiday break, but we'll have some special episodes. They're including a predictions episode where I will actually go out on a limb and and make some

some predictions. I will learn next year from Jonathan not to do that. I can't believe you haven't learned that. Yeah, I think you did it with Cena. You've got it. You've done a long history of making predictions. The fun part is coming back a year later and actually grading yourself yeah, I do that too. Actually, the Predictions Results show is actually really fun. Yeah, it could be a blast.

I usually end up giving fake prizes for all the nice well yeah, yeah, this year I think um, I think the top prize was a stretch armstrong whose arms have been stretched out too far. That's prize. Yeah, that's pretty good. Well, it gives up, gives a good hug. Well, guys, thank you so much for listening. Remember you can get in touch with me with the email address tech stuff at how stuff Works dot com, or drop me a

line on Facebook or Tumbler. I have to handle tech stuff hs W at all three and we'll talk to you again. Releases for more on this and thousands of other topics. Because it has to work dot Com