TechStuff Predicts 2013

the honor of participating in our prediction. O rama and Lauren, because your brand spanking new to the podcast, you get to go first. Excellent. I have a long history of being inaccurate. Since this is going to be great, Um, I think that in two thousand thirteen, laptops are going to make a comeback and desktops are going to continue decline in sales. Okay, so your prediction essentially is that

laptops are gonna be fine. They're actually which is great news for companies that are really putting it all in for ultra books. But yeah, but the traditional desktop, the tower and monitor is kind of not so much a thing, not so much a thing anymore. And I mean, the tablets have been have been really big over the past few years, and everyone's kind of going like, oh, tablets, tablets, tablet sales, more tablets for everybody, seven tablets per child.

She's doing jazz hands, people, it's not not spired fingers, jazz hands. And and uh, I think I think, I think that that that trend. I think that that really people are not ready to give up laptops yet they are too functional. I mean, tablets are sexy and cool, but their toys nice. That's a bold statement. I my head is off to you. But no, I I agree,

I agree. I think, uh, particularly these days when you know, I used to be that hardcore gamers would look down there knows at laptops and say, you know, nothing replaces a desktop. And and it's still true that if you want a top of the line, highest performing machine, you're gonna go with a desktop. And there are gonna be gamers who do that. But there are a lot of gaming laptops out there that are monsters, monsters and just as expensive as your your high end desktop and and

just as functional. Yeah, so I I think I'm with you on this one. The laptop sales bouncing back it's interesting, you know, based on some of the other predictions we have, I can see that happening. Uh, I'll be really curious to see what the numbers are at the end of the year. Similar to that, I actually have a prediction where I said, and this is kind of this is one of my gimmes. You know, after doing this for a few years, you start going for the easy, the

easy hits. But one of mine was that mobile web browsing will completely outpaced desktop and laptop browsing. So if you were to look at the metrics for any given webs you would see that the majority of traffic was going to come in over mobile devices rather than your traditional computers. And for some websites that's already true, but I think it's going to become more more or less a universal truth across the web. Yeah, I think I think that's obvious. I think that enough people are are yeah,

just on their tablets, on their mobile phones. That's not gonna who who has time to turn on a whole computer? And I know it can take upwards of fourteen seconds with some of my computers. Ridiculous, I know, all right, So what's your like, We're not even living in the incredible future. Speaking of the incredible future, touch screen party, touch screens for everybody. Um, yeah, I think that, especially with Windows eight, um, which Jonathan has some things to

say about. I have heard um that, yeah, everyone's dual screen. If those of us who have dual screens, which is people, from what I understand, Um, it's it's going to be a touch screen and and stuff like Windows eight is going to make that easier and more into graded and so so. Even though perhaps tablets are not going to be the biggest, biggest, biggest thing to ever big um yeah, yeah, Well, technology is gonna be there. Beyond the fact that Windows

eight makes it useful, it makes it necessary. I mean Windows eight is a great operating system. I genuinely like it. I mean I've used it, and I genuinely like it. However, uh, I much prefer it with something that has a touch screen interface because because when you're yeah, when you're in that tiled when you're in that tiled interface, you want to touch those tiles. I mean, that's why it's designed the way it is. And uh, and so I agree with you. I think we're going to see touch screens

integrated into more products. I mean, obviously, with things like tablets and smartphones, that's the that's the user interface that's accepted at this point. I mean, we've got some voice interaction too, but the majority of our commands are going to be through touch. But I think I agree with you. I think we're going to see that as kind of

a standard in other products too. I mean, we already have lap tops that have touch screens, but I think that's gonna become essentially a standard feature in laptops within And I'm about to, uh head off to the Consumer Electronic Show. I mean not right now, but in the near future, and uh it would shock me. In fact, I think this episode will air while I'm there. But it would shock me if I don't see a ton of laptops that have touch screens integrated directly into them.

It just makes sense, all right, Well, then here we go. Here's a here's a Windows eight. You were alluding to the fact that I had something to say about it. I think that enterprises are going to resist adopting Windows eight quickly. I think it's going to be very similar to the way both consumers and enterprises resisted Windows Vista. You know, a lot of them stuck with XP for a really long time. I mean that that operating system was ten years old before a lot of businesses begin

to look into migrating to something else. We actually just got on Twindows seven like a week ago, behind the curtain something. Some people were lucky and had been on it for a while. Not not your tech stuff posts. No no, no, we we um. We were just upgraded from stone tablets to a computer that can run an operating system. And that's just me being catty. But no, yeah, I agree, I agree, and I think Window sevens. But see, this is another thing. One I don't think consumers are

going to be as reluctant. I think consumers as a whole will be a little more adventurous. And it makes sense because when you're an enterprise, you know, that's a huge expense to upgrade a ton of computers. And although the economy is getting better, it has not gotten so much better that I think that people are going to business their businesses are really going to want to spend the money and time upgrading from something that that a

lot of us have really only just started to play with. Yeah, and there's questions of whether or not all of an enterprises native UH programs will run on Windows eight. You never know until you until you migrate. Stuff you don't know because there's legacy programs that may only run in earlier versus versions of Windows. I'm sure that some of our listeners are familiar with either institutions or companies or organizations that have specific programs that will not run on

anything older than Windows XP, for example. So that's that's an issue. On top of that, not only is it expensive to upgrade across a fleet of computers, you also have to train people on how to use it, and

that takes time and more money. So even if we were to say that the Windows eight experience was absolutely perfect for enterprises across the board, even then this is a gimme because most companies are going to say, let's wait a while longer until we can be absolutely certain that we can do business as we are accustomed to doing before we migrate to Windows eight. So this is

not a knock against the operating system. It's more of, hey, guess what obvious trend I have noticed since I have been alive, So again, kind of a kind of shooting fish in a barrel. I've been on the internet, I read the news. It must be true speaking speaking of things that are that are on the internet, in fact, the Internet of Things. This is exciting. This, This is

really exciting. It It basically I mean, if you guys, if you guys haven't heard of this, it basically means that all of our devices are going to be connected and talking to each other. Um and which is I mean, we can already do most lots of I'm not gonna say most things, many things, a bunch of stuff from our cell phones. But but I but I think that we're going to start getting the kind of functionality where

we can interact with our other even appliances. I mean, I mean things like like like security systems and lighting systems, and and I mean hvac like if you're on vacation and you forget to set your air conditioning down, some very basic stuff like that. Yeah. No, we've been seeing little incremental steps towards this, and people who are like the the bleeding edge adopters of home automation are probably rolling their eyes. Of course, yes, apologies to all of

you guys. This is all completely old hat as of like march for you right right, But but for the general public, I mean home automation is one of those things that are like, oh, that's what Bill Gates has, but it's not something that you would necessarily think of, like I've I've got friends who are uh, you know,

early adopters. I am not an early adopter. I mean, I'm a I'm a tech stuff host, and I love technology, but I do not adopt technology as soon as it comes out for a couple of different years behind the kind of honestly one, I'm not filthy rich and to uh too. I like my technology to work, and so while I'm excited by new things, I often don't adopt them because I don't want to deal with a frustration for when those new things don't work out exactly as

they were intended, because sometimes that happens. But the past few years, we started to see some some technologies that really are bringing us closer to this, and they're not necessarily all integrated together from the get go, but they work together. So the nest thermostat is a perfect example. Or the fact that I have a Nexus seven tablet and I've got Xbox smart glass on my tablet which

lets me control my Xbox from the tablet. It also displays extra information based on whatever happens to be playing on my Xbox. I can get more information, sometimes a lot more information, depending on you know, how well the developer has worked with smart glass. Um, those are just

tiny examples. Now the true Internet of Things is going to encompass way more than that, where we'll get to a point where we are going to have sensors that are connected to the Internet and they are taking measurements of all sorts of stuff, so temperature, humidity, what motion sensors, all this kind of stuff, and they're going to be incorporated into practically everything we come into contact with and uh, and it will send information and it will be able

to let us not only control our environment, but have our environment predict what it should do based on what user is in the room exactly. Which is I've used this argument once before, but if you if you were to extend this to the science fiction extreme, it essentially means that one day every single person will have the ability to define his or her reality because their environment is going to react to their needs, wants, desires, so that we're all going to be moving through a technologically

idealized version of reality. Now that's not to say everything's gonna be awesome, because if you remember every single holiday episode of Star Trek the Next Generation, you know, stuff goes wrong. Sometimes technology doesn't work the way that we want it to. Sometimes Moriarty comes to life, escapes the Holidack and takes over the enterprise. That's all I'm saying metaphorically. Luckily, usually Dixon, Hell or somebody is around to take care.

See uh impressing me. All right, okay, well let me let me go ahead and um let me do another prediction. Then here's here's a prediction. So NFC near field communication, that's the technology that lets us have devices that can talk to each other when you tap them together. Frequently we talk about it when you have like a cell phone and a program like Google Wallet that lets you

pay for stuff. So like there's a special uh pad that's next to a cash register, and when you tap your phone to the pad, just this bump the pad and it makes it go exactly, Yeah, you've got that's nice.

I like that with this bump and you pay, and then you've got you know, the added bonuses of things like coupons or customer rewards programs all integrated into that, so that you know, just by paying using that method, you reap the benefits so that you don't have to if you forget you all at home, you have your smartphone on you, it doesn't matter because a your your lords card and be your money is with you right right exactly and you don't have to keep track of anything.

It's all digital. It's awesome. Yea, everyone's happy. Here's the problem. I do not think two thousand thirteen is going to be the year where we see NFC widely adopted yet in the United States. Um, it's it's it's popular in other parts of the world, but in the United States we're still seeing a very slow adoption rate to this technology, partly because it does require installing a new kind of infrastructure. Usually it's not that huge but for an individual store.

But if you're talking about a franchise of stores across an entire country, that mounts up pretty quickly, of course, So I don't think uh. And also the other side of this is that NFC would need to be incorporated into weigh more handsets for it to become an attractive thing for vendors to support and UH. And part of the problem is that Apple has not jumped on the NFC train. Yet it may very well be that the next iPhone has NFC. I have not predicted that it

would actually surprise me, but it could happen. But without Apple getting on board, I don't think there's quite enough of a tipping point there for us to see NFC getting rolled out on a broad spectrum across the United States. Might see a few stores incorporated, especially like forward thinking stores,

but places where it makes sense. Yeah, I think that the other I know, I absolutely think you're right, there's gonna be enough resistance from enough sectors that yeah, it's I mean, I would love to see it get further adoption because I would not mind it if it meant that I could carry fewer things. Maybe maybe that's the thing that if I do you this is not something we have talked about before him. But do you think

if Apple is going to release a new phone next year? Yeah, considering that they've released two iPads this past year, um, they might release two phones this year at least. Okay, I do I think I think there will be a new iPhone. I think there has to be a new iPhone, and just like an S or a like a like a five s or actual facts holding my feet to the fire. Um, we asked a hard questions that textiles really don't let me off the hook. Good question. You

know what I think. I think it would be an incremental, incremental improvement. The five I think was about as dramatic a departure as far as design goes as we are likely to see this in this year. Yeah, I mean you've got Johnny Ives up there, sir, Johnny. I'm sorry, john thank you, sir. Johnny is uh definitely, um, you know, he's he's behind the wheel and design, so it could very well be that he completely revamps it. But it would that would shock me. So I do think there

will be another iPhone. I don't think it will be a dramatic departure from what we have right now. It'll probably have things like, you know, again, a faster process or uh, it'll have maybe even maybe an even higher resolution screen. Um, it'll and and I think a lot of the improvements will come from the iOS side, the operating system, as opposed to the hardware. But uh, we'll see. Yeah, that's a that's a good question. I did not write it down, so that was all on the fly, folks,

I'm just gonna hide under the table now. Well while we're um, while we're talking about Apple. UM, uh, let's let's do. Let's do I'll do an Apple prediction. Uh all of my prediction. I'm sorry. I wrote everything down very vaguely, so I'm like, I have words, I can

read them. Um. I think the Apple is going to hold onto its market share in the cell phone segment, which which in its market share right at this current moment as of October, Android had been earlier in the year at of the market share for smartphones UM as of October to drop and Apple with the five had had come up to and UM. And I think I think that Apple is going to maintain that. I'm going to It might be I could be completely wrong on this one. I feel like this is a strangely bold statement.

It is so small, but I think I think I agree that's bold. It's a bold statement. The reason why I think that is, I think those numbers definitely got a huge boost because there was a new iPhone, and every time there's a new iPhone, we're gonna see a spike adoption. UM. I think the fact that there are so many handset manufacturers out there that are making Android, although we've got something to say about handset manufacturers a little while. Um, but because there are so many, uh,

Android will probably bounce back. But so I'm disagreeing with you a little bit. I think that Android will regain market dominance before before much more time passes in two thousand thirteen. However, assuming that an iPhone six or five S or whatever comes out, that's going to change again, right, I mean, I mean, it's incredible that in the United States, where we usually signed two year agreements, that people will break them just to get the new iPhone rather than

skip a generation and wait for the next one. Yeah, or or even or even wait three months to wait for the next one because because it's here and it's new and it's now. Yeah, it's It's worse for US Android users though, folks, I mean, yeah, you you iPhone users. Yeah, it's bad because yeah, you well I'm looking at you, Lauren, so you iPhone users, and I'm looking at my wife too, not not literally literally, which is not in the room.

But but you know, they they complain about how not they Okay, some iPhone users complain and pick them all together. Some iPhone users complain about alike, Yeah, well, you know, I can't never mind. So some iPhone users complain about the fact that they that a new phone comes out each year, right, She's like, oh, but I just bought

one last year. Okay, look at it from the Android user perspective, where a new phone comes out every week, right, So you go out and you buy the newest brand spanking awesome shine and then uh, something comes out the following week, possibly from the same manufacturer as the one that made the one that you bought just now, uh, and it makes it obsolete. And so we live with that day by day. So look, it's not our fault

if you would, if you would drink. Also, I wish that we had pop filters in front of these microphones because now I feel really badly about what I just did. Sorry, sorry, josh Of if you should know, because I know this is the one you sit at. Um all right, so let me let me go onto this one. Uh, while Lauren recovers. Uh. So I said that the next version of the Mac operating system and the next version of iOS will bring the two operating systems even closer together.

We've already started to see them start to kind of creep in on each other in that in that awesome but not creepy way creep right, Yeah, most mostly in just the integrated device and desktop laptop experience. I think I think we're gonna see continuation of that, but I think it will be yet another generation before they become

practically identical. So and and this is kind of like Apple is taking an approach that's a little bit different from Microsoft, but the end result is the same, which is that you have an operating system that is easily identifiable across a suite of platforms, whether that's a smartphone, a tab it a or a laptop or even a desktop. So, uh, so Apple's going about it this way where they're just

slowly getting closer and closer. Microsoft introduced a new operating system and then just applied it across the boarders like ma'am flat gone to the two different approaches, but otherwise, uh, it's going to the same goal. Okay, Laurence. So what's your next prediction? My next prediction? Um, So, we've got we've got a bunch of next generation consoles coming out.

We're We've we've got rumors that the Xbox seven twenty or Durango as it's currently codenamed, is going to be coming out, and also a PS four or the Orbits as it's currently codenamed. UM. Of course the the we you already came out this year, UM what it's code named all will come on. The sales have not been as good as they had hoped. They have not, but

I think I don't know. UM. I do think that it might perk up a little bit for the holiday season, but I'm not But I'm not that people are are prepared for another another new console just right this very second, especially when UM Xbox and PS three prices are so I think I think I think an Xbox owner, as an Xbox owner who has had the Xbox three six since it debuted, I think a lot of us are really ready for a new console. But I don't know what the new console would have to have to make

it a must buy. Okay. And the reason why I say that is because, yes, you're going to get faster processors and you're going to get better graphics. But um, and this has said every single time there's a new console. But really, I mean, you're like, there's a point where you like, how much better does it need to be? Like for me, the graphics aren't really the reason why you play the games right now. If it's if the

graphics are bad, that's bad. But but if the graphics are you know, are are decent, then I'm like, well, that's that's good. But pretty much pretty soon that kind of disappears for me. Every now and then you wake up and you're like, whoa, that's a really awesome uh screen right there, Like I'm looking at something really amazing where the cut scene was really effective. But most of the time, I just it just kind of fades into the background and I'm really concentrating on gameplay. But um,

I don't know. I think there are a lot of gamers out there who might really want to get their

hands on a new console, especially for the PlayStation folks. Sure, sure, I mean I think that come next year especially, And I've I also don't think that Nintendo is necessarily holding the sector of gaming that are the people who are going to run out and buy something immediately when it's brand new and shiny, right right right, So so it's appealing to people who enjoy games, but they aren't they don't identify themselves necessarily as a gamer and quote unquote

casual gamer. Right right right, um, but but but so, my my prediction for next year is that um xbox is going to continue to sell more than than PlayStation um in in in fact, that when the seventh twenty comes out, that it will sell more than the PS four, and and that that both both of those new consoles are going to cannibalize the best awesome bits of We You and just kind of beat the pants off of it. I'm sorry, I'm sorry, we do. I want to love you. I love I love that, I love the pad pad

is terrific. I got a chance to play with that before the We You came out. Brag a lot, brag much. Um, yeah, I got to play with that at ce Has two thousand twelve, and it was it was yeah, no, it

was a neat way of playing. It made me think of the old Dreamcast where it used to have the LED memory card that you could play a game on, except of course, way more advanced I mean, but still same sort of principle that you have this additional screen that can have more information, like your your heads up display could be on your controller as opposed to the

taking up screen landscape. That kind of stuff or or innovative uses like I think it's Zombie You where you can use it as like a scope, like you lift up, you lift up the controller to the screen. Yeah, I think it's Zombie You that lets you do that. Listeners feel free to correct me if I am as I am likely to be wrong about that, please do tell us how wrong we are. But but building on top and I agree, I think I think the Xbox whatever it's called, will out sell whatever the Sony one is called.

I think I think it's gonna be true both for the current generation until we get to the next generation and then moving forward, especially in the United States and the in Japan, it's probably gonna be the flip flop because we're talking about just traditionally that's the way it is um and just just the range of titles that are are released for American versus Japanese cats. Although there's

fewer and fewer exclusive titles. I mean there there are some, but like you know, Halo's like that, but although you can find that on PC as well. But but we also are going to see other consoles jump into competition and curious to see how this changes things up. Like Valves,

Steambox is likely to debut and their team. Yeah, so the steam Box can bring PC gaming to the TV, and they've already started laying the groundwork with the big screen uh app that they have right now where you can hook up a computer to your television and use

the TV screen as your as your display. This would be the steam Box would be an out of the box kind of simplified computer, so that the average consumer who doesn't want to fiddle with settings or drivers or any of that stuff that PC gaming things that PC gamers door. Yeah, console gamers are kind of like, yeah, I just want to hook it up and have it go,

make it go exactly. So I think Steambox is going to appeal to the plug and play gamer and the big advantage they have as they say, well, yeah, these other consoles do stuff well, but this is a gaming PC. It's just the game PC made to work on your television. And I'm curious to see how big a dentt it can make in the gaming market, um and whether or not it starts taking away market share from the other

the leaders, the legacy consoles. UM. I don't know if it'll if it will really take a chunk out because console gamers can be really devoted to their particular brands. Um, but then we also have the the o u y A. It's it was a big success story on Kickstarter. They

had a kick started campaign to raise money. They ended up raising way more money than they needed to be able to, Like I forget what their goal was, but it was something like, you know, a hundred something, this is these this I'm just talking h random numbers here, but it was like it was one of those crazy kickstarters success stories where you make you know, like five

timest exactly thousand times as much as you have. You said, like I want a hundred thousand, you get three point five million, Well then I'm going to make it that much more of fom. But yeah, the uya should be debuting as well. And uh, it reminds me more of a simple streaming service. So I'm curious to see how well.

And I don't mean that as a knock, but that it does seem to be more about downloading games or streaming games to a console as opposed to going out and buying games and then putting them into your console and playing them. How many people are really buying games? I mean, I mean, are you have you heard any numbers about how many people are downloading games these days

versus buying physical discs. I don't have the numbers. Anecdotally, I know a lot of people who are starting to do the whole digital thing because they went ahead and bought xboxes that had those ridiculous, ridiculous hard drives. I don't see. I have the hard drive that has like two gigabytes, spaces goes up to four. Mind goes up

to ludicrous. Yeah. Yes, that's the problem. Is that I'm actually looking at buying a new hard drive for Mind so that I can I can take advantage of that because I know people who do do that, and they do it for multiple reasons. One it means less clutter. They don't have to worry about having a box someplace

that's taking up space. Too, it usually means that the load times are decreased significantly because everyone's on the device arrange to read the disc um But I don't know the figures, so, but I do expect that will that number will grow in two thousand thirteen. It would surprise me if it didn't. Okay, uh so let's see we talked about that was that was kind of both of us. Do you want me to go, let me go again, because I think I've got a few more than you do.

And uh, I here's one. I said that Intel will begin to struggle a bit because and this is related to something we talked about earlier, because mobile is becoming increasingly important. Uh. And Intel is really in the business of making chips for desktop and laptop computers as well as for larger computers for other purposes. But but because yes, exactly, but because the the importance of desktops and laptops is is declining, or at least desktops definitely declining. In laptops,

I think you said I was gonna speed up. I'm back and forth on that one. But I think Intel is gonna see things get a little more tight for it in two thousand thirteen, and so, uh, it would not surprise me to see Until explore creating something along the lines of ARM based micro processors, either licensing out the ARM architecture or building something from the ground up to compete against ARM in a more aggressive way so

that it can go after that mobile market. Because right now, if if the mobile market is what everyone's moving towards until gets left behind. Okay, next turn, sorry, don't. I don't have a whole lot to say. I'm gonna go. I'm gonna go breathe into a paper bag. He see I come into this. I'm I'm like, I get to say ridiculous things. It's so exciting. I feel like I feel like you're genuinely a little bit. I maybe I

just haven't gotten the emails yet, so I haven't. So I don't know how scary it can be to make these kind of predictions at all. It's not scary at all. If you look at my record, I'm probably batting around three hundred, which you know in baseball is not so bad. In tech predictions not great. What else? What else have I got here? Um? Uh oh? Another Apple thing? Apple TV. I think that's going to happen next year. I think that Apple is going to market a television UM that

that has all kinds of crazy integrated stuff in it. Um. This has been a prediction. I'm glad you're here to make that prediction since Chris is not here, because that's that's like Chris is annual prediction is that Apple TV will come out. But I think this year, more than any other, it's likely to happen yeah, I think I think I'm making it from like I'm saying it, It's a pretty safe bet. That's what basically everyone on the

internet is saying is going to happen. And well, we'll Tim Cook seems to slowly be going from this is a hobby for us to to look at, you know, the whole TV space. Two, this is interesting and we're not going to ignore it, and and and those. And it's been subtle. It's not been like that dramatic of a change in stance, but those subtle changes in the way things are worded suggests that this is becoming more

and more of an actual thing. Yes, uh yeah, So let me ask you this just personally, Lauren, No no shock here, but uh, would you, assuming that you had the budget for it, would you want to get something like an Apple TV or even a Google TV, like any kind of net connected TV, but specifically, I think Apple and Google would be the two that are the major,

uh companies in that space. Um, if if it were me, I would probably go for go for a Google personally, just because, um, it would probably be way cheaper, very very I mean, I wouldn't be as pretty a TV though it would. No, no, it would not UM. But but you'll have to understand that the television that I currently have in my living room has tubes in it. This is I just heard the internet crop No no, no, no, no, I know you know you know what I mean. Though, No,

I do know what you mean. I vaguely remember TVs that had two uses it. I don't think I even know. That's not true. I do own one. I just it's just not plugged into anything. It's sitting in a corner waiting for Samara to come crawling out of it and minds on wheels. Actually it really is because better no, no enormous rear projection TV. That's that's terrific. No, no, so so so this is I mean, I'm just that

that is the kind of tech adopter I am. I until until this thing breaks or somebody emails me five thousand dollars, that is what I'm going to use. But but if I had the Apple tunity and the money to UM, I absolutely would want something that connects up to the Internet, because that's what that's what I use my Xbox for essentially, So if I could kind of integrate that into a single thing, not that I would want to give up my Xbox because Halo is critical.

Yeah no, no, there's let's not talk crazy talk. But but here's the thing is that any like, if you get a TV where there's a big company that can make huge deals with various providers, then you get a lot more options than you would through something like Xbox, where you know, I I love my Xbox and I use I use the connectivity stuff all the time. That's

how I access Netflix to my main TV. I've got a Roku for my other TV, and um, just name dropping stuff now, But but but I used, I don't say yeah, I do the same thing, and I mean I really enjoy the services. But yeah, something that's deeply integrated into a television could be really interesting. Now. Granted, uh it sometimes worries me too because if it's like a partnership thing words and integrated partnership, Um, you always have to worry about what happens if one of these

entities goes away. But that's true of any technology. So it's not like I can't just point a TVs and say that's the flaw. That's just the way. That's just the way things work. From how stuff works dot com and uh okay, so here's one of mine. E books and e publishing will become even more important in two pals in their team, and electronic books sales will uh

completely outpace hard copy books. So if you look at the sales figures of books, um, then the sales figures for electronics are going to to go beyond the sales figures for hard copy books. And for those of us out there who are literature major's former literature majors like myself, this is yeah, sad, but but also kind of awesome. I think it's exciting. I'm I'm kind of in the

anti Rad Bradberry camp on that one. I think that it's it's really terrific to be able to have a thing that you can carry with you and download new books too. At any given point, I agree. I mean, nothing for me replaces the physical pleasure of holding a book and reading it. That smell, the feel of the page, the tactile experiences that you're never going to get out of.

I mean, even even if you have a really nice like I've got a like a disingorgeous leather and wood cover for my for my kindle, and and it's it's it's great to hold I mean, it makes you feel like you're holding a book. But but but on the other hand, nothing replaces the feeling of being able to carry two volumes of Game of Thrones with you on vacation and not throw your back out. So so yeah,

so there's a trade off. Um and yeah. I mean, especially with the with the sales of the Kindle and the Nook in the past year, it's I'm pretty sure that everyone has access to it. Sure, that's the only ones I make Lauren, Yeah, all right, next, do you have any more? I've got, I've got a couple more. But I've got I've got a couple more. Well. Uh. Prediction um medical tech. I think that this is going to be the year that a great number of people

get their genetic sequencing done um and uh. And furthermore, that health records are going to be going digital and people are going to be interacting more with them uh and and and more with their doctors. As a result, I think it's going to be a gorgeous new future of not understanding what your doctor is saying and still googling what what what the heck they mean? The nice thing, though, is we might be able to actually read the digital signatures of our doctors. Unlikely. I don't even know what

this prescriptions for. I think they're all going to be scrawling on tablets. That part's going to be the same. So I hold out hope. Yeah, that that's the kind of thing that makes a handwritten writing recognition software go, oh give up. All right, So here here's one totally unrelated to that. So Zinga, the game company that's been having had a real hard time in two thousand twelve. Yeah, it was a rough year for for all the they're the kids who created of course where with Friends and

um they had the all the vill um. Yeah, so Zinga had a meteoric rise and then and almost as meteoric fall like it just we and we did a whole episode about Zinga, so I won't rehash everything. But Zinga has been having some real problems with uh, you know, maintaining revenues. They've done some layoffs, uh a lot, a

lot of that's been in the news. And one thing I think is a possibility, and and this is my prediction, is that the board of directors for Zinga very well may explore and then execute an option to buy up as much stock as possible to convert Zinga back into a private company because as a publicly traded entity, Zinga has to answer to shareholders, and sometimes sometimes that can be very difficult to do and ensure the long term success of your company because shareholders can and this is

not always the case, but it's often the case, shareholders can ignore long term growth uh in order to get short term benefit of trends or the immediate, like they just want a quick fix which might in the long term hurt the company, rather than watch these slow investments be made so that you know they might be the right choices, but it could take to three years for

it to really turn around. For shareholders, that can be a long long time, and so some companies it benefits them to remain a private company because then they can make these decisions and it's a smaller group of shareholders and you don't have to worry about catering to everyone's needs. So I think that that's a possibility we might see Zinga go back to being a private company in two I like it. Um My, the last one that I have written down um is is basically a non prediction.

Um My prediction is that nothing will happen with HTML five right, So just just just essentially, it's that like a plateau of development. So it's not that not that no one nothing, nothing is going to happen with it. Lots of things are going to be happening. Nothing is going to happen in the public, No one is going to be right, We're not going to have integrating it and adopting it. Yeah, it's not gonna be it's not gonna be finished essentially. Yeah, I I can agree with that.

I mean, there have been some problems with HTML five and I don't I don't see that changing really in Alright, so I've got two more than I want to go over. Um, I had three, but cyber warfare is a gimme, so I'm not going to do that one. So this is one that I thought of, and it kind of plays

into some of the other stuff we talked about. I think there's gonna be some companies that look into designing technology that is specifically intended to be a set can screen experience, meaning that when we're watching television, that's our primary screen, and then a lot of us, myself included, will have a secondary screen open, whether it's a laptop or a tablet or even a smartphone. We tend a lot of us tend to have most of us while

we are watching TV. These days, it's not enough to watch TV, but which means that I can often miss in incredibly important parts of whatever it is I'm watching, and then look up and say, where's that guy? What do you mean he's dead? When did he die? What do you mean two minutes ago? You shouldn't watch during I'm assuming you're talking about Walking Dead. I was talking about Supernatural, which really one of the one of the two brothers is perpetually spoiler alert either dead or or

in hell. That's really your two options. Or or about to die or about to go to hell. That's you know, one of those things are definitely happening to one of the two brothers in that show. Shows all Jonathan, by the way, I have not watched any of it. Enjoy it anyway. Yeah, yeah, we we won't won't talk about the documentary series Spatial. Uh so, Yeah. I think they're going to be companies that make technology specifically with the

intent of making it a second screen. Now a lot of people are using existing technology to do this, and a lot of apps are coming out that are helping out with this helping to integrate the two experiences. Yeah, like smart glass. Again, that's another example. But there are other apps out there. I mean Netflix has apps. I mean there's there's tons of apps out there. But I think they are going to be companies that say, this

is something that people are really interested in. What if we designed from the ground up a product that's intended immediately to be a second screen and that could take any form factor. I'm not predicting the form factor. I'm not predicting the operating system. I'm just saying there's going to be companies out there that say, let's build the definitive second screen. Because everyone's doing this, so let's make

a specialized product. It makes perfect sense to me. If I had a capital, I would totally have gone into that because it'd be like I can build this company, up sell it to someone else, and grave and train. So that's my prediction for that, and then um my final prediction. This is one that that I believe Lauren might disagree with me on because of something we said in our pre show. I said that two thirteen is going to mark the peak and then decline and into

a plateau of crowd funding and Uh, crowdfunding. We saw a lot of crowdfunding in two thousand twelve. I think two thousand and thirteen we're gonna see even more of it. We're gonna see startup companies appealed directly to average citizens saying this is something that this is an idea I had. So for example, I might say I have this idea for the perfect second screen device, and but I need starting capital, so I start up or whatever, um and I put it up there and then ask for funds.

We've already seen companies like we've seen the U Yeah, we saw the Pebble smart watch thing. Lots of tech has come through Kickstarter and receive successful funding through it. Uh, some of them we haven't necessarily seen the outcome yet. We're kind of still waiting on it. But I think what's gonna happen is we're going to see that continue in two thousand thirteen, hit a peak, and then I think people are going to start getting a little burnt out by it just from the idea. Well, you know what,

I've very funded like five of these things. I am done for now, and even if something really cool comes along, I think that people will get burnt out by funding various projects, especially if these projects are slow to uh come to completion. I mean a lot of this is a lot of this will depend upon how well companies can Absolutely no, I think I think people are not done with done with crowdsourcing it, and I think that

enough people are excepted. I mean, you know, I'm not sure if it's right for everything, but I don't think it's going anywhere in I mean, I'm I'm currently looking at uh at a book project that some web comic artists put together, UM, the to Be or Not to Be? That is the Adventure to Choose your Own Adventure book that Ran North of Dinosaur Comics put together. UM does it doesn't mean you can be Hamlet and not die. Yes,

it means you can be Ophelia and not die. It means you can be Ophelia and like ride velociraptors, Canelia and get to a nunnery. I can only assume that that's going to be an option. UM. But this they had a goal and have raised half a million at

this point, and and it is it is. I mean, I do think that there's a terrible divide in UM these crowdfunding sources where you're either Amanda Palmer and you make a million dollars or you and your project doesn't fund and your project is fund And that's not bitterness, by the way, I truly am not. Maybe maybe maybe this prediction of yours is coming from a place of bitterness and sorrow. I mean, you know, everything subjective, right, I mean we we view the world through our own

individual lenses. I would like to think I'm objective, but so would everybody else. And I don't know that's not true. No, I am, that's a fair point. I am, I am. I'm hoping that people will start paying more attention to

the people who genuinely need startup capital. I think I would really love to see places like Kickstarter revised their contracts, their um their user contracts to to make it more possible for the little guy to actually get funding, and maybe maybe make it a little harder for something like penny Arcade too, because no, no offense against the penny Arcade guys, absolutely none. We love you, please don't kill us.

But to use Kickstarter so that you don't have to run ads on your site for a year based upon what Kickstarter was founded upon, just seems like it's a mismatch, right, because Kickstarter was really about kickstarting projects. Now, ultimately Kickstarter approved that project. So I don't fault the penny arcade guys at all. I mean, they were trying something new, and they're trying and they're trying to reward their their

loyal audience. All of that is awesome. They just seemed like Kickstarter was the wrong tool for the job based upon kickstarters founding found founding statement and so, uh, you know, it just seems to be a disconnect there. So it wasn't that I objected to the fact that they were trying to get away from running ads. I object to

using a tool. Uh. And I really this really falls again more on Kickstarter than anything else, using a tool in a way that it was not necessarily intended or at least the way it was projected out to the public, you know, So that that was the biggest But I would like to see more grassroots projects get that kind

of funding. And and again no slide against the Amanda Palmer's and in the world, every every bit of success that they have gotten, but you do worry that that might kind of burnout, right, and you could take away from from projects that have no way of making it, you know, and there's no avenue of success for the person who is trying. And it could be that's something that we would all benefit from, least to enjoy. Yeah.

Maybe maybe I'm just maybe I am just the optimist and Jonathan is the pessimist, and that is what is going on on opposite sides of this table right now. I don't think the glass is half full or half empty. I think it's dirty. The dirty glass. Well, I think that wraps up this discussion. So in order to conclude, let's just say we will revisit these predictions at the end of and see how we did and definitely how

wrong we were. Yeah. Yeah, and you guys can can tune in then and hear us keep score and uh, if you guys have any suggestions for future episode topics, I highly recommend you write us. You can send us an email. Our address is tech stuff at Discovery dot com. Where you can get in touch with us over Facebook or Twitter or handle at both those locations is text stuff H. S. W and Lauren and I will talk to you again in really soon for more on this

and thousands of other topics. Is it how Stuff works dot Com