Tech Predictions for 2010

to be the best episode ever. All right, well, let's start this off with a little listener mail. This listener mail comes from Kyle, who is and I quote, our biggest seventh grade fan, so perhaps he's nine ft tall. Because Hi, guys, I recently subscribed to the tech Stuff podcast, and of the other two I've subscrip right too, this is my absolute favorite. Thanks Kyle. This morning and over the weekend, I was listening to some podcasts and listen

to your tech predictions for two thousand nine. I was wondering if you, guys, like you said in the podcast, could update your list and say what happened and did not happen keep up the great work. And Kyle's from conquered California, and so we already did o our rundown where uh, somehow you ended up with all these chech Yeah, yeah, that was crazy. I'm hoping that maybe maybe this year, this coming year, uh, you'll maybe get a check mark. I mean it'll be I mean, we'll see. We'll see

after I finish telling up the marks next year. But we since we already went through what our predictions were last time, we're gonna make new predictions for two thousand ten. Now when we're recording this, it is still two thousand nine.

I'm assuming that it will probably publish before the first of two thousand ten, but I don't know for sure, because we do record these ahead of time, and uh, as we did last year, we we took some that were pretty pretty well educated guesses, you know, we figured would be reasonably likely to happen, and then we sort of went out on a limb on a few teams. So I'm trying to do a little bit of a mix some of the really like big big ones, Like I hope this isn't stealing one of yours about cloud

computing being big. I mean that's that's almost a gimme, like cloud computing being big, or smartphones will continue to be popular. Those are kind of like those aren't predictions. That's that's obvious to to anybody really, So um, we're trying to avoid those as much as possible, although I think some of mine may fall into the lame category. Um and uh, maybe you'll get a checkmark for this, pett I'm gonna we already know that I have more

predictions written down than be lett Us. I'm you know, I'm I came up with some during the podcast last year, and I might come up with That's not a criticism to you, Bullett. Know what I'm in What mean to say is that because I have more and you have fewer. Um, I'm going to have you go first because it may be one of the ones that I use, and that way I still have something I can choose from. Right, But if I use one of the ones you use,

then you're rapidly up the creek. Okay, so you can go first at my first prediction, I'm gonna go with one of the most uh hot um news items of right of the time as of right this minute when we're recording, is and I predict that Apple will in fact release something, whether or not it is the tablet

quote unquote tablet. But I have this feeling they're going to come out with a larger iPod iPhone style device that people are calling the Apple tablet right now, um, because there's just too much information about this non existent product that has been pushed back that hasn't even been announced yet as of this recording. I think they will come out with something, and I think it will sell well.

But here's the prediction part. I don't think it's going to sell as well as people thought from all the hype interest Well, you know, we thought it was gonna sell I'm making a number up here. This is not really the prediction, like million copies and the I only sold, you know, sixteen million. Okay. I think it's going to be successful, but not wild interesting. So so I also had in my predictions that Apple would come out with a tablet device. Some people are calling it the iPad,

I don't know, just call it Apple tablet. That in general, we know that it's supposed to be a like a ten inch screen device of some sort, which is much larger than an iPod Touch or I I iPhone. So but it is not like a clamshell style computer. More like it won't have a keyboard. It would have its own like touch screen interface. Because we agree that. That's why I agree that's going to launch. Now, I said that's going to launch, but it's gonna tank. Really, so

you think it's gonna tank out right? Well, if the predictions are correct and it's going to be marketed for a thou and dollars a pop, that's a lot of money to ask for a specialized gadget. I mean how specialized it is. I think it's going to be more of a computing device. Yeah, but you can buy a computer for less than that, and you can have buy a computer for lesson that has a keyboard, and you can buy an Apple computer for that same price that

has a keyboard. We'll see. I mean, no, granted, Steve Jobs, he's amazing at convincing you that you want what he has to sell, so maybe he'll prove me wrong, but I don't think it's going to do well. Alright. Well, so there's a prediction where we had a fundamental disagreement, which is awesome because that means one of us is going to get a check mark, and one of us is going to get an next I think I know who it will be if I'm the one gig score. So let me go ahead and make my next prediction. Now,

this one, this one's a total gimme. Two thousand ten will be the year of the e reader. Okay, so kindall has been out for a couple of years. The Nook has well saying the Nook has come out as probably being a little ambitious. The Knook is on sale, Uh, it'll start shipping any day now, really honestly, but the Sony e reader has been out for a while. I'm guessing that at c E s and two thousand and ten, which it happens in the first week of January in

two thou um and I will be heading down there. Um, I'm guessing that CS is going to have uh, several more electronic reading devices on display from different manufacturers. I think two thousand ten is when the e reader form factor really comes into its own, and we're probably gonna see some pretty hefty competition between several different developers, and then maybe maybe even by the end of the year, we'll start seeing some real front runners to see who's

gonna dominate that space right now. Amazon Kindle's got a huge head start. I Uh, this wasn't in my predictions, But I disagree with you. I think we have another year before that happens. So you think you think it won't be until two thousand eleven before the readers really become a big thing. And then I based that on Gartner and their hype index. The industry analysts says that there is a a trough of disillusionment coming for the e reader, um, and then it will settle out and

actually become successful. But at this point they predict that there's going to be some more times. I'm saying I base it on the fact that my mom called me to ask me which one would be better for my dad, the Kindle or the Nook. Okay, which you know when my when your mom calls you to ask you, you know it's a big thing. Okay, Alright, you want another hot trending topic right now? The Google phone the Nexus one. Um,

we already we already sort of agree on this. I think based on our Tech Stuff Live broadcast of earlier, that it will actually come out and be a consumer device. I think, um, but I think it's gonna go with T Mobile. I think you're gonna pocket to T Mobile. Again, that's sort of a gimme based on the FCC filing, but that was also one of my predictions. And I didn't specify the carrier, but I said it would come

out and it would be locked. It's gonna be locked, so yeah, we'll I'm in total total agreement with you there. But Lett, I think that the Nexus one or whatever it is called, when it eventually becomes a consumer phone, I think it will be locked down to a single carrier. Um. I also think that I will probably want one. I think so too, because I've got the g one and I love it, so all right, that's a good prediction.

I like that. Um. I say that in two thousand and ten, the iPod Touch, the next generation will have a camera. Okay, we expected that this past year at the event, and it didn't happen. I think it's from what I understand, it sounds like the reason why it didn't happen was supply chain issues. That the chips weren't quite right, the sensors weren't quite right, and it wasn't gonna fit within the iPod iPod Touch um form factor.

So but I do predict that they will fix that problem and that sometime in two thousand ten we will start seeing iPod touches that have cameras in them. All right, then, Uh yeah, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see that they're kind of gimme. I was going with a this isn't really as as gimme ish um, and it's related to my last one. I think that T Mobile is going to end up in a merger with somebody

over the next year. M hmm. There was talk for a while about the T Mobile sprint thing, which sounds to me like it's not gonna happen now, and T Mobile and UH and A T and T were rumored for a bit, and actually some of the smaller carriers umored to be you know, can as part of a deal. So team makes a little more sense just because they both run on the same they're both rely on the same three G technology. I want to say that now. I'm not questioning whether or not, but I know that

I've seen a couple of rumors swirling around. I think it's actually going to happen in because I think the uh, the Nexus one is going to be popular enough where they're gonna need more network. So otherwise about how big you're gonna start seeing something like T mobile experiencing the same sort of problems and pr disaster that a T and T has had to field in two thousand nine. Yeah, because I do think the nextest one will be popular. All right, well, um uh, here's here's one that's gonna

bum out our gamers friends. I think that two thousand and ten will come and go with yet another year where there is no announcement of a future console from either Sony or Microsoft. I don't think we're gonna hear about the PS four. I don't think we're gonna hear about the Xbox seven, twenty or whatever you want to call them next year. The reason for that is because they are still developing uh some pretty high end accessories

for those devices, like the Sony Wand and Project at all. Uh. Those things kind of suggest to me that that the companies are planning on extending the lifetimes of these consoles for a few more years. And it would be um Dutch mental to go ahead and announce the successor to those systems, because you would really hurt the sales of your peripherals. If everyone's thinking, well, I want to hold off until the next generation console comes up, because what

if it's not compatible? What if these peripherals don't aren't compatible with the new system. So I, uh you know, that was that was the thing I was trying to think of. This is one of the reasons I have fewer uh predictions this year, is because I was trying to think of something for gaming, and this is sort of a non prediction. I don't know that I see anything big happening on the gaming front anyway, because we

had so many big announcements. The biggest thing I could see is if Nintendo came out with something, because Nintendo is starting to kind of do Yeah, they're starting to well, they're starting to feel the slow down to the we the we mania is starting to slowly uh fade away. And so it may be that we hear an announcement

in two thousand ten of a new Nintendo console. Now I don't think it would be available in two thousand ten, and two thousand eleven would be the earliest see it, but we might get a hint, like maybe a teaser at E three or something. Okay, so, um, is it my turn? That was too much of a gimme, I must skip that one. Um, I think Apple is indeed going to embrace the La La method and go with

a music rental program. So you're gonna have like some sort of streaming service on on iTunes where you know, basically pay lower fee and you know, all you can eat type stuff as long as you're subscribing. I would love to see that happen. I don't know if that's gonna happen or not, but I want that prediction to be true. So well, a lot of people, a lot of people are betting that you're you know, if you're betting against me, that you would win because the model

wasn't working. La La was one of many that was sort of struggling to make money. And uh, you know, but I don't know. I mean, I don't know how many people were really familiar with lat and it's and it's model, and uh, Apple's got a lot more marketing muscle that it can use, so and I don't know, I think it's gonna happen. Well, here's here's one where

I'm sticking my neck way out. I predict that in two thousand and ten, the large Hadron collider will either uncover evidence of the Higgs boasting particle or something even more bizarre. Okay, So in other words, scientists will tell you that UM often will tell you that sometimes they don't want to find what they expect to find, because if you find what you expect to find, all it does is confirm your hypothesis, and you don't learn anything more.

You just confirm something. If you find something you don't expect to find, that means there's something new that you don't know, and it's fun to learn that. I think these people are crazy, but I think it does mean that the the collisions in the LHC will probably generate something that will either lead scientists to to definitively state whether or not the Higgs Boston particle exists, or if there's something even more unusual that we have not thought

of yet that actually explains why matter has mass. There's a rabbit in a clown wig playing on harmonica. We never expected to find that, Right turkey in the straw? Who who had turkey and the straw? Alright betting pool, who had turned turkey in the straw? Nice? Okay, this is this is a little bit out there too. I'm not sure they're ready to do it, But I'm gonna there's there's something I saw on the news today about the Paramount studios trying a a pay for streaming clips things.

So I'm gonna say that UH movie studios are going to go ahead and start dipping their toes into the UH downloadable movie pool. Maybe it's just a rental thing, but I think that some of them are going to get on that UM themselves and find ways to make that work. UM. Maybe that's going to be through the the Comcast acquisition of NBC Universal. UM. You know, now that they've got content and infrastructure together in one spot,

they'll have total control over that. I don't know, but I think I think it's gonna start happening when they finally reluctantly go Okay, maybe we'll let you view this sun and streaming basis. And I don't know if they'll go for it or not, but I think they're going to try it like full length content. I wouldn't expect

it in January one, right. I have a similar prediction in that I think that in two thousand and ten, will we'll start to see the UM the the pay part of of a Murdock's plan for Hulu's has come into play cratch that went off my list. Well, that was very, very similar to the one you were just mentioning. It was gonna be my next So I paid tier paid tier for Hulu. Now, even back when when uh Fox executives were talking about the possibility of of making a paid tear in Hulu, they did say that there

would still be content that would be freely accessible. So probably still what ads supported, I would guess, or or advertisement supported, but there there would be some content that you would have to pay to access. Now, personally, I think if they kept it at the five trailing episodes model, but if you paid extra you could get access to

older episodes. That would be awesome because then you'd be like, if you're like me and you suddenly say, oh my gosh, it's seven weeks into twenty four and I totally forgot because they don't have a TV anymore, Um, let me go to Hulu. And then you look at Hulu and you can only go back as far as episode three and up. Then you're stuck, well, what happened in the first two hours. That's when Jack Bauer really kicks. But because it's before he's been beat up, and he spends

the rest of the season slowly recovering. UM. Yeah, I'm I'm hoping that that's the way that paid here takes form, but I honestly don't know. All Right, Well, that was one for both of us, so let's I'll go ahead do a different one for me. UM. I think that this is gonna be the year where we actually start seeing wireless high definition components hit the consumer market. Now we've seen we've seen these things at c e S

a couple of years ago. Actually back in two thousand seven, I saw these and they've been at ce S probably before that. That was the first c S I went to. Now, what we're talking about here are devices like UM, like Blu ray players or high definition DVRs or whatever that can transmit signals wirelessly to a a similarly enabled television. And there are several different competing standards that are trying

to become the standard or high definition wireless data transmission. UH. Two of those would be White Gig made by the White Gig Alliance and UM W h D I I am, which is UH. I forget what that acronym stands for. I remember it's like high definition something or other. I'm awesome, aren't they? But anyway, that's the point being that these technologies have been around for a while, but we haven't

seen anything beyond the prototype stage. I think in two thousand ten, maybe by the holiday season of two thousands tens, so we're talking about almost a full year from now, we'll start seeing, Uh, these devices hit the market so that you could you could suddenly have a home theater that doesn't have to have cables connecting the various components together. I mean, you still need a power chord, but you wouldn't have to have a chord that goes between your

Blu ray player and your television. Yeah, all right, that was that was my next one. UM here's what I I just thought up on the fly based only on that. UM, I think you're gonna see the first um LTE infrastructure in the United states're starting to see it. I think I think Stockholm is getting one right now. So it's it is. They are being built overseas all ready. So yeah, that's that makes sense to me. UM. I actually had

on as one of mine. As we would see the war between the War of the four G technologies, which right now, I'm thinking mainly why Max and LTE Although those are not the only two, those are the two

front runners. What's the The whole thing is that there is y max available in several cities now and they're Max customers, so yes, And there are many people who are many people, many companies who are currently offering three G services who have said that they want to offer lt Well, honestly, they can't afford to wait too much longer. I mean, obviously the economy being what it is kind

of puts a damper on some of their plans. But they're gonna have to start rolling some of the stuff out if they want to compete, because wy max is going to eat their lunch if they wait too much longer, right, they will drink their milkshake. Yes, that's a reference that you don't get because you have not seen there will be blood, that's correct. At any rate, White Gig is or I'm sorry, why max is currently drinking LTEs milkshake? And uh yeah. As these as these networks get built out,

we'll start seeing more devices that can take advantage of it. Currently, most devices require an additional piece of hardware in order to interface with these technologies. For example, my laptop computer has a WiFi H receiver built into it, but it does not have a y max receiver. And they are two different technologies running on two different frequencies, so you

can't use one for the other. Uh So, in order to use my laptop with my y max service, I have to either connect directly to my y max modem, or I have to have a little dongle that can pick up the it's essentially an antenna that can pick up the signal. Or there is one other option. You can connect your modem to a wireless router, converting the signal to WiFi, and then pick it up through your

WiFi receiver. But I think that once these these networks get built out, we'll see devices with those technologies built directly into the device, even things like phones. We'll start seeing phones on the four gene networks. So yeah, um, all right, Well that one was yours. So I guess it's my turn again. How many more do you have? I have one more? One more? Okay, so well I'll do one more. You do one more, and then I'll do my caper. Okay, okay, so let me see, let

me see what I've got um, oh, here's mine. Palm goes under because the pre did not do well enough to keep the company alive. I don't think the Pixie is priced well enough to keep the company alive. I think Palm. I think Palm put all of its eggs into the the web boast basket, and I don't think the web boast basket has done well enough to keep the company going. I think I think two thousand ten if it's if it doesn't see the death of Palm,

it's essentially gonna be the Swan song. I mean, maybe they'll come out with a really cool device, they'll have it at c e S and everyone will be talking about it. But that did not that wasn't enough for them this past year because that that was when they showed off the Pre and everyone thought it was great, and it just did not do as well as it

needed to. Yeah, yeah, okay, Mine's gonna be rather close to home for you because this is this may fall in the lame category, but I have to I predict that this laptop that is sitting between you and me, that is yours work computer, is going to die before the end of the year. That's what kind of prediction I've gone through four laptops since I've been at how stuff works dot com, and I started in February two seven. No, no, seriously, he when he's typing to me, the E key is

not working. Away. Yeah, well, I just avoid words that use the letter E now, which is why. Uh, I'm trying to learn Welsh. Yes, and we have to talk about the intern run so yeah, yeah, uh it still works. I just have to punch that key really hard. Oh and I'm also missing the tilde key. Did you notice that? Yes, I no longer. Okay, so it's lame, but it is a tech prediction. He's got to have another. You've got

another prediction that looks very close to my home. I will be on this Weekend Tech sometime in two thousand ten. Leo reports show this Weekend Tech. Here's my prediction. I will be a guest on that show sometime in two thousand and ten. I have absolutely an interesting, full full disclosure. I have no leads on this. Leo Laporte, as far as I know, has no knowledge of my existence. I'm sure he knows of the website, I mean, how stuff works.

I'm sure he knows how stuff works. I don't think he knows who I am, UM, but I have high hopes that sometime in two thousand and ten I will be invited to be a guest on This Weekend Tech. It's a show that I actually, I really enjoy um and as a format that goes long enough for me to talk as much as I want to the point where I'm hoarse and can no longer talk anymore, because

those shows are long. If you have not listened to This Weekend Tech, Leo Report gets a round table of various tech journalists and and movers and shakers in the technology world. They're not all just journalists. Some of them are uh, you know, entrepreneurs, and they talk about the big news stories that happened that week. And UM, it's a good format. Leo Reports a great host and he leads a very engaging conversation and they can get really

deep into some of these subjects too. So yeah, it's it's more than just covering the surface of the story. They try to dig down into what does this really mean? What are the consequences, how could it affect other things within the industry. Um, it's a really in depth conversation, but they keep it very accessible, so even if you are not a you know, technology guru, it's pretty easy

to follow along. So um, I mean occasionally they can get bogged down into into technical details, but that's that's the exception rather than the rule. And uh and he consistently has some of the most intelligent and interesting guests on that show. So granted, that's a very high bar for me to reach. But um, I figure if we can con him into thinking that I know what I'm talking about, I have a shot. I might need your help, oh tech stuff listeners to to get Leo's attention. All right, then,

all right, that was my last predict. I actually have more. But because you know you're out there, you can you can throw them out there. You could throw them out there. Some of them are gimmey's. Like, I expect we'll see a rise in three D entertainment. We saw that, we saw that increased steadily through two thousand nine. I think two thousand and ten will continue that trend um, especially since I think Avatar, Uh you know what, I was

a naysayer on Avatar early on. I didn't think it was gonna the movie Avatar, Yeah, the James Cameron movie. I was kind of a NASA aer. I didn't think it was gonna be very good, but people I really really respect who have seen that movie have been very positive about it. And so I am willing to eat crow and say, you know what, Uh, James Cameron proved me wrong. Man. I'm I'm eager to see a fun

science fiction film. And I think that if he really has managed to completely changed the way movies are made, that's awesome. So and if it disappoints you, where your heart go on? Uh yeah, yeah, exactly. So. Well, That's the other thing is that James Cameron has a history of making these incredibly expensive movies that everyone thought there's no way this film could ever recapture the cost it made to create the film, especially with things like Titanic,

which had so many problems in the production sequence. A lot of people had a sinking feeling about that. Exactly yeah, spoiler alert, the boat sinks. But the the the film made well more than what it costs to produce. And so, I mean, Cameron, he just consistently amazes me. So I'm

I'm looking forward to being amazed again. But um, I think we're gonna see a rise in telecommuting in companies I think we're gonna see more and more companies, especially new companies, start with a model where they move away from the geographically centered office and they do more teleconferencing and teleworking. UM. I think we're gonna see a lot more Internet ready televisions that can tap into the Internet directly without the need for an additional box like a

Roku or an Apple TV. People are actually going to buy them. I think that they're going to them. Yeah, they've had them, but I think that it's always been like the high end televisions, and you hardly ever see them in stores. I think, yeah, when you walk into the Yes, I think when you walk into the instead of just to the Internet, they will be accessible to people. When you walk into an electronic store, I think you

will see them for sale. UM. I think virtualization is going to be huge in two thousands ten, you're gonna see a lot more companies moving to virtual computers as opposed to UM to regular computers because it's usually less expensive, easier to maintain UM, easier to keep control of everything. You don't have to worry about your employee getting upset, taking his or her computer home, going and then showing up at a competitor and handing all the information over.

I mean, there are a lot of reasons why virtualization is is attractive. Um, then let's see I'm already said that one If I said that one, oh, and we're gonna see a lot more newspapers actually attempt what Murdoch was saying and get behind a paywall, d list from Google, or at least work with Google to no longer have

their uh their information freely accessible through Google. And then we're gonna see all these other smaller newspapers and blogs Russian to fill that niche, and those big newspapers are gonna say, darn, we want our we want our ball back, and we're gonna and we're gonna see them abandoned that that business model. Yeah, but I don't know that you'll see I'm abandoned it into They might, they might last a year or two. They might try and hold a

year or two. But I don't think that the subscription based service is going to bring them the massive amount of money they think they're going to get. Uh that if it's gonna if if it brings the money, I think it's gonna be uh for more or less equivalent to the money they make in web advertising, it's not I mean, you might make up for it in uh in the amount of money each individual person is willing to pay, but you're gonna lose a lot of potential subscribers,

that is, all of them. So there we go. There are all of our predictions, which means that at the end of two thousand ten, we will once again listen to this podcast and start to pull all of those predictions together and see how we did. Hopefully I'll get some time. The cool thing is that no matter what we try to predict, there's always going to be stuff that happens that neither of us could have ever guessed at. And uh, you know, like, can you believe that Apple

bought Microsoft? Who saw that coming? You know, something like that? Something insane and you know we joke about it, but crazy. I mean, two thousand nine was a year of mergers. It's crazy. You know. I never thought i'd see Yahoo and Microsoft shake hands over a search deal, but they have. So whether that deal pans out, we still have to

wait and see. So if any of you have any comments you'd like to, Oh wait, before I do that, I totally forgot I have one more listener mail and listen listening comes from Reese, and what Reese has to say impacts directly our predictions. Reese says, Dear Chris and Jonathan, one of my mother's friends works for Apple. I had just recently listened to your podcast on the Apple tablet and asked her about it. I was shocked to hear her answer. The Apple tablet is indeed just a myth.

It was, however, an idea within the Apple realm. However, they will be making many new products, just not this tablet. Sincerely, Reese, Age eleven. So, folks, if we are wrong, it's Reese's fault. No, just kidding, Reese, just kidding, Reese. Uh. We're we're betting that the rumors are true. Um and if they If we are wrong, we will give you kudos at the end of two thousand ten. And Frank G Can tell

you how much those kudos are worth. If any of you have any predictions you'd like us to know about, or any other kind of comments, questions that sort of thing, send us an email. Our address is tech Stuff at how stuff works dot com. Remember we do have a live show every Tuesday one pm. Over at the blogs. You can go to how stuff works dot com. Just look at the blogs on the right hand side. Click

on any old link over there. You'll be able to navigate through to the tech stuff blog and find the link to our our handy dandy show where we give technology news with a smile and sometimes a little dance. And Chris and I will ta to you again really soon for more on this and thousands of other topics. Does it how stuff works dot com and be sure to check out the new tech Stuff Blog now on the house stuff Works homepage. Brought to you by the

reinvented two thousand twelve camera. It's ready, are you