Tech Predictions for 2009

predictions for two thousand nine nine nine. Yeah, and uh, we have a whole list of things. I feel compelled to point out that these may or may not come true, and some of them might be a little far fetched. I think what we'll have to do is, at the end of two thousand nine, listen to this podcast and see how many of them we got absolutely completely wrong. Deal awesome? All right? You want to start? You want me to you go ahead? All right? I want to

start with Apple. Okay. I think we're gonna find out who Steve jobs is successor is in two thousand nine. Maybe he won't leave the company, but I think we're gonna start hearing names of people who might be poised to take over the reins if for some reason, as many predict, he will be stepping down. Interesting, I can see Jobs resisting that as much as he recently can. Yeah, I don't. I can't imagine why he would say that.

So my Apple prediction is that we are going to see I think two thousand nine will be possibly the swan song for the Mac desktop computer. Really yeah. Does that include the iMac or the power Mac only? I think um, I think it will include both. Okay, this is that's going out on a big limb there, I know, but but I just see that. You know, McIntosh desktop sales have been going kind of low for the last couple of quarters. Uh, in comparison to what they used

to be. They're they're not growing as fast as they think they should. And I think with the current economic climate, we are looking at consumers who are going to be concerned more about getting the most for their money. And uh. And Mac computers are beautiful. They work really, really well, but they're also really expensive, especially when you compare it to a machine of similar power. Maybe not the best, you know, maybe they're not as capable, but they're just

as powerful. On the PC side for significantly less money. So do you think we'll see an Apple netbook this year? Oh? I don't think so. I mean you think people will take if you take jobs At his word, he says that there's no way they would build a machine for under five dollars. That wasn't crap. That was where his words, not mine. So I would be very surprised if we saw something besides the MacBook Air hit the netbooks range.

I have another little Apple projection. I think we're gonna start hearing about the next gadget, uh, the iPod, the iPhone, and I think they're I think we're gonna start hearing if if we don't even see it, I think people are gonna start conjecturing. And you know how we knew the iPhone was coming out before it came out, sort of like we did with a Google Phone. Yeah, I think we're gonna hear. We'll start hearing about the thing, whatever it is, it'll be rumored if nothing else going

with the car I car. Yeah, Well, actually they were going to partner with v W from and it happened. I love that article that we have on that. It's still a good article. Okay, so, uh, let's move over to Microsoft. Then, yeah, I'm not a prediction for Windows seven. I grouped mind by company too, and then I have

some general stuff. Most of mine's general, so I but for for Windows seven, my prediction, and this is so easy, it's it's a GIMMI but that Windows seven is gonna have an uphill battle because it has to erase all the bad blood that was generated by Windows Vista. And we should point out that a lot of that bad blood is probably, you know, completely unnecessary because although Windows Vista did have some problems early on, Microsoft addressed a lot of those issues and fixed all of those problems.

And people who use Windows Vista without knowing what it is is when they're using the new patched version seem to think it's a great system and it's really good for things like you're a media center, that kind of thing, and things where you have eighty billion gigabytes and memory. Okay, yeah, you have to have a powerful machine, granted, but that's not what I'm getting at. Ok. So, I just think that Windows seven is going to uh have a rough

time for the first few months that it's out. But if enterprises are eager to to upgrade because now they they're going to be running on a Windows system that's, you know, ten years old. Then I think that's where're going to see Windows seven flourish. Right as soon as businesses say okay, we can trust this operating system and they move to it, they're they're sitting pretty I have two Microsoft One of them is a guinea and one

is a little bit more far fetched. One the gimme is that Web Office is going to launch the web version of Office. It's totally it's going to be out there and it's gonna have all the functionality and it's gonna go a head to head with Google Docs. Um. The other is this is my actual Uh, I'm gonna put a date in here. We're not a date, but I think at E three you're gonna hear about the Xbox. Okay, so the next generation of Xbox generation, whether it's the

seven twenty or not. Well, they're ahead of the other two their head of of Nintendo, in their head of Sony as far as the Xbox release date, because they pushed the three sixty out the door pretty quickly after the original Xbox which released. So I think they're going to try to stay ahead of the game, and go ahead and and announce the seven twenty and give you a release date and may even be on the shelves

by next Christmas. And you think so, Yeah, I guess the typical console tends to be out between three and five years before the next generation, so it's about time, you're right, Okay, I can not that far fetch, but I think you're gonna hear about it at E three. Okay, yeah, I can. I can dig that, okay. Um, how about a Google rumor? Okay, okay. So I think that by the end of two thousand nine we will finally see a full fledged Google operate system. Yeah, web based operating system,

it's almost there now. Chrome and the Google Docs suite together worked pretty well um as as a very kind of limited operating system. But I think we're gonna see the real thing before the end of two thousand nine. All right, Well, I mean they've already got a head start. They've got Android, right. I think they're going to see a huge boost and Android too, because there's going to be a bunch of new Android phones coming out in two thousand nine, and I think that will encourage developers

to develop more. Um. Programs for Android, and so by the end of two thousand nine, Android is going to be a major player as well. All right, then, so there you go. I was going to leave the googling to you, since you're Mr Google. Yeah, but I was. I was going to touch on the game systems again. Um, Nintendo, I think it's going to have a quiet year. I don't think you're going to see a new system from them.

I think you might see a new peripheral or two, because I think they're figuring out that that's a good way to to keep the system going and add more function any to it and sell more We's considering they're going nuts doing that now. But I think I think they're going to concentrate on rolling out more games, and I don't think you're gonna hear anything about the next the WE two, whatever it is. I think it's going to be quiet and stick with games and perfectly. Well, yeah,

they're still out. They're still outselling the other consoles by a significant margin. And uh um, it's interesting because I don't I think a lot of people who buy We's kind of get tired of the games that they have fairly quickly, and so we Nintendo has to has to try and figure out a way to re energize that

customer base and keep them interested. I think that we Fit was a perfect thing for them to come out with, because that really did get people excited about the we Even people who had bought it thought it was really cool, played it for a couple of months and then just sort of set the side and didn't think about it again. Do we Fit managed to bring them back into it? Um? So yeah, I agree with you. I think the peripherals

is probably the way they're gonna go. Well. Looking at Sony in the play station to the PlayStation two has extended its life considerably, um, you know, for selling more than any console ever. I think I think that's safe to say without researching that that they pretty much have. They've certainly been around forever. Speaking of Sony, I think that it that they're going to start working on the PS four because sale sales have the PS three have

stagnated so much that the next PlayStation. I think they're gonna end of life the PlayStation three very early, and you may start hearing about the PlayStation four before the end of the year. Here's the thing about the PlayStation three, I think Um, I think that's death is premature. I agree with you that it's not doing as well as it needs to do. I think that's mainly because of

the price. It's it's the highest priced console on the market right now, right and they, you know, Sony before Christmas two thousand and eight, they said they were not going to cut the price of the the PS three. Um, they weren't gonna bring it down for the holidays, and I think that really really hurt them. I'm not sure that comeing out with a new console will help, because I don't think it's the fact that the PS three.

I think the PS three is as great specs and it's perfect for the time that's in right now, it's just at the wrong price. But that that does bring me to something else that's somewhere though. Okay, I was going to say that I don't know if the developers are going to stay on board three if they're not selling machine. Well, I can yeah, I can definitely see that because there's no money in it for them to

do that. Why why developed for that when they can just concentrate on just say the Xbox so um Blu Ray Blue Ray. Oh this is the make or break year for Blu Ray. I say, um, the prices for Blu Ray machines dropped dramatically for the holiday season in two thousand and eight, and uh, and so if we see people adopt it and then start buying movies, then sure Blu ray will stick around. I don't think it's

gonna happen. I just don't think that the improvement between regular DVDs and Blue Ray DVDs is enough for most people to switch and adopt the Blu Ray technology and just concentrate on Blu Ray movies. I think it's it's it's a beautiful format, but most people just don't see the value in that kind of incremental important in uh, you know, improvement in performance. So I think two thousand nine maybe the death of Blu Ray, maybe a long,

slow death. I don't think it's gonna be like the h D d v D where it was like, oh I'm not feeling so good. I'm not feeling so good. I'm not I'm dead. That was as HD d D for early eight. Sorry Toshiba. Yeah, um, okay, I was trying to I was looking at my notes and trying to figure where I want to go next. Um, I'll just keep going chronologically and where I wrote it down. Um, I think the Linux community is gonna start taking shots

at Microsoft. I think they're working right now. Actually I know they're working right now on getting people to make prettier software for Linux. I think you're gonna see Lennox starting to make in roads. I think with cloud computing and some of the and and the success of things like open Office. Um, there are basically you can download a copy of well various different flavors of Lenox and install it on your computer and have a productivity suite

and an instant messaging client. Uh, you can use gemp to do your your images. You know what. It may be time for Lennox to start making a move as a community want the different developers now, I mean it's a confederation of people, so who knows, But especially when you made like Microsoft is moving more and more towards the cloud. That's cloud computing. By the way, that's one of my other predictions will be a household term before

the two thousand nine is over right now. It's something that we in the tech industry talk about a lot, but you wouldn't necessarily hear anyone like the average Joe who's not in the tech industry wouldn't normally know that that term. I think that will change by the end of two thousand nine. Um, so you beat me to that.

I was page two of my n Yeah, and Microsoft is really moving towards that that model, I think you know, but there there is still a value to having a machine that can run things locally, and some people recognize that and some people kind of dismiss it. Um, And I think the Linux community community can totally jump on that and you'll see things like again like the Android platform,

which is based off of the Linux kernel. When you see the success of these kind of platforms, that also lends credence to Linux being a an operating system that's worthy of competition with these other established companies. Yea yea. Um. That's actually a good segue to something else that I had on my list, which was I think two thousand nine is going to be the year in the netbook in general, and m I'm contrary to your thinking on Apple because I think that it may it may actually

go the other way. Now it's been going people have been buying more notebooks than desktops for a while. A couple of years, I guess, and netbooks are certainly super popular. But I think people are gonna get tired of lugging their laptops around and they're gonna say, you know what, this is all in the cloud. I can get a nice desktop at home and have one at work and not even mess with it. I don't even want to carry my briefcase or my backpack with me. I'm just

gonna have this on the cloud. Interesting, So I think that it it may actually go the other way, and that would be totally going out on the lamb. And I'm gonna you're gonna enjoy picking me apart of because laptops are going to be up. I have written down right here. Mobile devices will take over the computer world. That's the thing. You've got the iPhone, You've got hey, the iPod Touch, You've got other smartphones, you've got netbooks. Why carry around a full size laptop computer? Sure? Okay,

no desktops at smaller device. Yeah, I'm I just here's the thing. I think that for most people's computing needs, the smartphones, the netbooks, the cloud, computing takes care of almost everything they need. Yeah, for the average consumer, the people that are that this obviously does not apply to our people like power gamers who need a powerful machine

on this stuff. Um, those are the people. So I think desktop computers will go to those niche markets, So the gamers and the enterprise people who will still need a desktop machine or you know a lot of places still use desktop machines. We don't. We use laptops for most of our machines. We do have a few desktops in the house. Stuff works universe. Um, but yeah, I would be shocked if the desktop computer has as strong a foothold in the consumer market as you seem to suggest.

So at the end of the year, we'll listen to this and find out who's right, because that's a good, good one. We we we have two different takes on this well, and and that's part of the fun of doing this podcast is we're playing around with ideas that might happen. So we'll see, we'll see what happens. So, um, you got one, Yeah, okay, Facebook will put the finishing move on my Space, the tombstone pile driver, the atomic

leg drop, whatever you wanna call it. I think, uh, I think my space is busy shoveling the dirt in around itself now, so my Facebook will really just have to show up and put the tombstone. And I think one of the things that's really going to to uh contribute to this as Facebook Connect, yeah, which of course is their open I d U kind of approach where you can use the Facebook profile information you have to log into other services, which automatically ports the information into

those services so you don't have to create a new profile. Um. More and more sites are gonna start using this sort of stuff, and I think a lot of them are going to look at Facebook as being the preferable vendor because you've got, like the Google has its open source I d and that's a very powerful name as well. But you look at Facebook's user base and they have hundreds of you know, like a hundred million people using it on a regular basis, not just users, but people

who go there sometimes multiple times a day. Uh, that's a big user base to to grab to get your people to you know, let's let's use that that way that it gives them the incident to make a profile on our page and we've got them. In a related note, Yeah, I think, uh, I think Twitter is going to either go down or get really perilously close to it unless they come up with some kind of business model. They need to partner with somebody that they need a business model.

Come on, they don't need a business model. Well, tell me how they're getting income in this economy, and maybe you can convince me venture capital, which I have predicted will dry up in two thousand nine. Um okay, I see your point. I hope that Twitter finds a business model because I've become increasingly reliant upon it. So but now I can I can see where you're going there. I don't like that story. I don't either. Let's get it.

Let's get us something else that's better. Well, I've got I've got a lot of little ideas we don't have to get into in great detail. I think you're gonna see um Echo Star finally build since they acquired Sling Media, I think you're gonna start seeing integrated machines that have the Sling technology built in. And I think you're gonna

see place shifting become more prevalent. I also think you're gonna see ti Vo either get acquired or go under, because they're at a point now where you know, I mean, they're fighting Dish and a lot of other people off with lawsuits for infringement of of technology. But I don't know. I think they're at the point and they're too good to go under because the the operating system on that machine is amazing. UM. So I'm just saying, alright, I've

got the last mile problem. It's gonna come to a head, all right, because we've got more and more people going online, getting the broadband connections to the internet, uh, and they expect to have that lightning fast service. And if enough people connect to that last mile, the last mile being the space between the backbone of the Internet and your house. Essentially, if enough people are clogging up those tubes to use a serially inappropriate phrase, um, then the slower your service

is going to be. And as customers get more and more savvy of this, they're going to demand their I s p s upgrade the system and address this last mile problem, especially as you see companies embrace the Internet as a way of distributing media even more than they already have. As that continues to increase and people begin to consume more and more of their media through the Internet, they're going to need that problem fixed or there will be hell to pay I had a feeling you're going

to say that, Yeah, it was a prediction. Um, okay. I a long time ago we bought a really cheap TV by this UH company called Samsung, and I thought, you know, for the longest time that they were a lobe and player. Well they reinvented themselves to take on Sony and another company, gold Star came. I don't know LG. So I have a prediction. Is who that the next

company is going to be. I think it's gonna be a SUS Yes, yeah, Well see the thing is they have an aries smart fountain that they just introduced not too long ago, so they're not just producing netbooks. And that's the way that these other guys, you know, they worked up. They at the low end electronics and then they built themselves up and you never know who's that. Yeah, and there's certainly the Chinese electronics manufacturers in general. I think we're going to see a lot more of Well

I have I have only one more? Okay, why okay, yeah, so here's my last one. Okay, it's also a gimme. Yeah. Green technology will be huge. As a matter of fact, a SUS has some very green technologies. They have some I think grass laptops. Yeah, so you know, well, and it's just becomes it's become the word your really, I mean, the whole still have to do it now because it's you know, it's not just an environmental it's also economical

and marketing and marketing. Yeah, they're all these different reasons why people are embracing the whole green movement. Uh. And it's it's it started off as kind of a niche thing. You know, you'd be like, oh, those hippies with the green movement. Well, no, it's no I'm one of those hippies. Now. Yeah, so it's gonna be even bigger, I think in two thousand nine, and I think we're gonna probably see several scandals as well, or at least interesting stories about companies

that are claiming to be really green. But if you dig a little deeper, you'll see that maybe those claims are not all accurate. They're greenwashing. Yeah you might say, yeah, all right, well I had a few, but they can all be shortish. Um. I think that HDTV prices have hit their peak. I think they're gonna start stagnating in a big way and maybe even come down. Since prices have been deflating anyway. Um, I think we're gonna hear something serious from Amazon on the kindle too, but not

from serious. Yeah, no, it can too. Okay, that makes sense. Um, I think best Buy is gonna go in chapter eleven, Oh because I think best by You think you think that this brick and mortar is gonna go? Yeah? I think, well, I think they're they're hurting. I think it's possible that both Circuit City and Best Buy may survive. But the only way they're going to do it is by you know, hauling themselves out of the mud. Uh. I mean Radio

Shack preceded the two of them. Um, and they may have to close a bunch of stores, you know, comp us a. Uh So it's it's entirely possible. You know, best Buy is not the soul company to be unaffected. I think they may also drop into chapter eleven. Um, I think y'all who's gonna gonna stay independent? Whereas I think that y'all who will either be bought or will collapse. Speaking of collapse, I think A O L may completely go away. I mean you you just may hear them disappear.

You know, they'll be there's their services and things may still carry the name. But I think it's going to be basically it's funny because they were they absorbed another company, a giant old media company, and that's the part that's actually still surviving to some extent. Speaking of old media, I think more books and or magazines and newspapers are going to go only like the Christian Science Monitor, PC Magazine, US News and World War Poort. They all did that

in two thousand and eight. I think you're going to see a lot more of those in two thousand nine, especially since these these companies are staying afloat. You know, they're they're still surviving, they're still doing good work. Um, they're sort of paving the way. Actually, I think DRM may go start. People are going to start saying, you know what, this DRM thing is just not working for us. Yeah, but I mean that's one of those rumors that comes

around and then nothing happens. I'm starting a new one, yeah, because because just recently there was one about iTunes getting rid of all DRM and that didn't pan out. Since I am a recent purchaser of the game Spore, which on the previous podcast I said may never come out. They they have had some DRM issues with secure UM, and they are doing what iTunes does where you can decommission a computer if you need to to open up

a license spot. I think that the secure ONM thing is a big headache for e A. I think uh iTunes and Apple they've had problems with dr M. I think it's going to be one of those things we're gonna say, you know what, We're going to get more customers by not encoding this stuff. Sure, UM and I think trade shows like c S, I think you're gonna start seeing huge declines and then amount of traffic two shows like like that. I'll let you know when I

get back. All right, Yeah, if it's a waste land tumbleweeds across the show fuel a lot easier to get across the floor that it would be. Maybe I'll be able to keep Alton on my toes this time. There you go. I'm tapped. I don't have any more good because I'm done too. Okay, all right, Well that was an interesting discussion. We will see in a year's time how accurate we were, how close to the truth, and if we were way off, then we'll know better when

we're doing our predictions. For two I guess that's true. We'll still have to come up with some some wild and crazy yeah, because it's no fun exactly. The economy will be bad, yeah, so we'll avoid doing that. But we have many of these topics covered on how stuff works dot com. You can read everything from Facebook, yeah, just about the cloud computing. There's a whole suite on cloud computing. So if you want to learn more, definitely go to how stuff works dot com. Take a look around.

It's great site, and we will talk to you again really soon for more on this and thousands of other topics. Is it how stuff works dot com. Let us know what you think. Send an email to podcast at how stuff works dot com. Brought to you by the reinvented two thousand twelve camera. It's ready, are you