Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning Methodologies

The collected sources focus extensively on the methodology and application of strategic foresight and scenario planning, particularly in the context of business strategy, risk management, and smart city development. Several texts, including excerpts from Shell and a corporate foresight guidebook, position scenarios as coherent, credible alternative futures used to challenge assumptions and guide long-term decision-making in volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) environments. The texts identify scenario planning as one of Europe's top foresight methods, alongside techniques like Delphi, SWOT analysis, and brainstorming, which are employed by organizations to understand and shape future opportunities. One source specifically outlines the ATHIKA project's methodology for scenario planning in health smart cities, detailing how to identify stakeholders and key uncertainties. Finally, the academic review of strategic foresight capabilities emphasizes that successful foresight activities, which combine distinct processual and contextual capabilities, have a positive impact on strategic and organizational outcomes for firms.