Welcome to the Techmeme Ride Home from Monday, October 7, 2024. I'm Brian McCullough. Today, we finally have a date for Apple Intelligence. Meta has a new text to video AI model. Google could soon drop under 50% in the search ads market, more hope for level 3 automated driving for me, and how AI bots could revolutionize online dating. Here's what you missed today in the world of tech. Alright, I've got a date for you, or Mark German does. Mark says,
Apple is aiming to debut iOS 18.1 and Apple Intelligence on October 28. They're also probably going to unveil a new iPad mini and some new Macs later this month as rumored. Some of those could ship as soon as November 1. But look, if Mark is right, this is the Apple product roadmap for the next year or so. According Bloomberg, I expect Apple to announce
the following products around the end of October. The company is currently aiming to then release at least some of them on Friday, November 1. A low-end 14-inch MacBook Pro with an M4 chip, a high-end 14-inch MacBook Pro with M4 chips revamped Mac mini in M4 and M4 Pro chip configurations, a refreshed iMac with an M4 chip, refreshed iPad mini, but I expect Apple to kick off 2025 with several other new devices in the first half of that year.
13- and 15-inch MacBook Air models with M4 chips, refreshed 11-inch and 13-inch iPad Air models, a revamped iPhone SE, new magic keyboards for the updated iPad airline, and an upgraded air-tag item finder accessory. That's a lot of stuff. New versions of the Mac studio and Mac Pro with M4 chips are also in development, but they take longer to arrive. I expect the Mac studio launch to be closer to the middle of the year with the Mac Pro going on sales
sometime in the second half of 2025. And of course, we should expect the iPhone 17 line and the new Apple watches in late 2025 along with M5 Macs. The company has been clear that Apple intelligence will be arriving in October as part of the iOS 18.1 operating system, but now I can provide a little more detail on when in the month it's supposed to arrive. Monday October 28th. That means new iPhone buyers will have to wait a few more weeks to get the
most hyped component of their devices. I'm told that Apple is taking its time with the rollout to ensure that major bugs are eliminated and it can support all the new traffic on its AI cloud servers. Yes, there are rumors that you will have to sign up for a waitlist to be able to use Apple intelligence at least at first as part of that, I guess, getting the rollout right. We shall see. Later on Friday, Meta announced Movie Gen, a suite of AI models for generating realistic
video and audio clips. Movie Gen video has 30 billion parameters and Movie Gen audio has 13 billion. Quoting Bloomberg. Meta's product Movie Gen can create a new video up to 16 seconds long based on a text prompt. It can also use such prompts to generate audio, for or edit an existing video or even use a photo to create a customized video featuring
a real person. Movie Gen is only available for some internal employees and a handful of outside partners including some filmmakers, though the social media company plans to build the product into its existing apps sometime next year. Executives are still discussing how best to implement this integration, but the aim is for Movie Gen to encourage more people to create or edit video posts, said Connor Hayes, a meta vice president focused
on generative AI products. It will be, quote, fun to use, helpful for creators, good for overall engagement in the apps, but we don't have a concrete product plan of what it will look like at this point, he said. Meta is waiting to roll out Movie Gen for several reasons, including the technology's efficiency. It currently takes tens of minutes to generate a video based on a text prompt too long for general consumers who are likely to use this
on their phone. Hayes said, but meta is also quote sorting out a bunch of really important problems around safety and responsibility. Hayes said, including how to handle personalized videos so that a user can't create an inappropriate or unflattering video featuring another person without their consent. That's going to be probably the most important problem to
solve before we would make the personalization capability available to folks broadly. Meta AI, the company's chatbot has almost 500 million monthly users, CEO Mark Zuckerberg said last month, and is also available as a voice assistant and a pair of Rayban branded smart glasses met a developed, more advanced augmented reality glasses called Orion are in the prototype
stage and include several features powered by AI technology. E-Marketer expects Google's share of the US search ad market to drop below 50% next year for the first time in more than 10 years as Amazon, Apple and others make gains in this market. Quoting the journal. For years, the tech giant has seemed invincible in this corner of the ad market, which is
the foundation of its business. Now rivals are beginning to eat into its lead and new offerings fueled by the rise of artificial intelligence and social video threatened to reshape the landscape. TikTok, the wildly popular short form video platform, has recently started allowing brands to target ads based on users search queries, a direct challenge
to Google's core business. Perplexity and AI search start up backed by Jeff Bezos plans to introduce ads later this month under its AI generated answers until now it is made revenue mostly from a $20 a month subscription offering that grants access to more powerful AI technology. The new initiatives add to the pressure on Google from the rise of Amazon which has taken a chunk of search ad spending. Many consumers begin product searches on Amazon
as opposed to Google. Google's share of the US search ad market is expected to drop below 50% next year for the first time in over a decade according to the research firm E-Marketer. Google has expected to have 22.3% of the market this year with 17.6% growth compared with Google's 50.5% share and its 7.6% growth. This space has been ripe for a shake up for a long period of time said Brandon Alberts had of search and commerce at the ad buying
firm Denzu. Google remains in an enviable position though far ahead of the pack in the search market with plenty of resources to counter moves by its rivals. Still advertisers are eager for more competition. For the first time in probably 15 years we will have a viable alternative to Google said knee a hean a veteran digital advertising executive.
Targeting search budgets is a logical step for TikTok up to now the company has offered brands the option of displaying ads near search results but advertisers couldn't target their ads based on the keywords in user searches. Advertisers remain drawn to TikTok because the platform's strong appeal to younger adults interest that hasn't diminished despite the US government's efforts to force the app
to sever ties with its Chinese owner or face a potential ban. While TikTok's US ad revenue is expected to jump 38.1% this year it only has 3.4% share of the US digital ad market according to E-Marketer. In a pitch to advertisers viewed by the journal TikTok said search behaviors have evolved and added that the platform had global daily search volume of over 3 billion searches with 23% of users searching for something within 30 seconds of opening the app.
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lower case. Go to shopify.com slash ride to upgrade your selling today. Shopify.com slash ride. Long time listeners will feel like I'm a broken record on this, but an executive says that GM is working on a level three eyes off hands off driving system, though they did not provide a timeline for when it might become publicly available. Again, this is all I need. The ability to watch a movie or read a book while on the highway.
Quoting tech crutch. These hands off eyes off systems also known in the industry as level three or L3 are not self driving cars like the ones Wemo operates, which are considered level four. Instead, they typically operate only on highways and at reduced speeds and unlike a robot taxi, the driver is still required to take control if needed. Despite these constraints, a hands off eyes off system would push GM beyond nearly every other automaker
that offers an advanced driver assistant system. The majority of automakers today offer what is known as level two, a system that automates some of the driving, but still requires the driver to pay attention. Tesla's autopilot and even its full self driving software system is still considered a level two system along with GM's super crews and Ford's blue crews systems. Today, only Mercedes Benz offers a limited hands off eyes off system called
Drive Pilot in the United States. Super crews, I think, is an industry leading L2 solution for hands off eyes on Dave Richardson, senior vice president of software and services engineering at GM told tech wrench in a wide ranging interview. We're looking aggressively to make that
in L3 solution where you don't even have to look at the road anymore. Super crews uses a combination of light art map data, high precision GPS cameras and radar sensors as well as a driver attention system, which monitors the person behind the wheel to ensure they're watching the road. When the system is activated, it will accelerate or break to maintain a selected following distance from a vehicle ahead, steer to keep its lane position and make automatic
lane changes to pass slower traffic. While super crews was the industry's first true hands-free ADAS on the market when it launched in 2017, GM wasn't viewed as a dominant player because it severely limited access to the system. For three years, the system was only available
on one model that Cadillac CT6 and was restricted to certain divided highways. Today, super crews is widely available across GM brands like Chevrolet and GMC, but by the end of 2025, GM has said, super crews will be available on about 750,000 miles of roads in the United States and Canada, including rural and minor highways that often connect smaller cities
and townships. Richardson didn't provide a timeline for when such a system might become publicly available and he played Coy as to exactly how far the company has progressed in this mission. When we have L3, I do think that's meaningful. I think that's a game-changer
Richardson said, the crux is knowing when such a system is fully developed. Launching anything earlier could turn off consumers Richardson noted, if you don't quite trust it and it kicks you out then it's sort of like the analogy I give sometimes is you're driving with your 15 year old, that's just learning how to drive. You don't really trust them and it almost becomes a little bit more stressful.
But why wait though? According to Reuters, some U.S. ride-hailing drivers are already using Teslas with FSD as makeshift robotaxies, saying FSD lets them work longer hours by reducing stress amid various other safety concerns. Tesla CEO Elon Musk aims to show off plans for a robotaxie or self-driving car used for ride-hailing services on October 10th and he has long contemplated a Tesla run taxi network of autonomous vehicles owned by individuals.
Do it yourself versions however are already proliferating according to 11 ride-hale drivers who use Tesla's full self-driving software. Many say the software which costs $99 per month has limitations but that they use it because it can help reduce drivers stress and therefore allow them to work longer hours and earn more money. Ride-hailing companies Uber and Lyft responded to questions about FSD by saying drivers are
responsible for safety. Uber in particular cited its community guidelines. Drivers are expected to maintain an environment that makes riders feel safe even if driving practices don't violate the law. Uber also cited instructions by Tesla which alert drivers who use FSD to have their hands on the wheel and be ready to take over at any moment. Lyft said drivers agree that they will not engage in reckless behavior.
The drivers who spoke to riders also described critical shortcomings with the technology including sudden unexplained acceleration and braking. Some have quit using it in complex situations such as airport pickups, navigating parking lots and construction zones. I do use it but I'm not completely comfortable with it. Said Sergio Avidean, a ride-hailing driver in Los Angeles and a senior contributor on the ride share guy YouTube channel and online
community of ride-hailing drivers with nearly 200,000 subscribers. Avidean avoids using FSD while carrying passengers based on his conversations with fellow drivers on the channel. However, he estimates that 30 to 40% of Tesla ride-hailing drivers across the
US use FSD regularly. Tesla Uber and Lyft do not have ways to tell that a driver is both working for a ride-hailing company and using FSD industry experts said while almost all major automakers have a version of partial automation technology most are limited in their capabilities and restricted for use on highways. On the other hand, Tesla says FSD helps the vehicle drive itself almost anywhere with active driver supervision but minimal intervention and quote.
Finally today if AI is invading social media it seems inevitable that it will one day have a role in online dating as well. Grindr is testing an AI wingman that would let users track conversations with their favorite users, recommend long-term relationship candidates
and more. Bumble and match group owned Tinder and Hinge which are designed for facilitating long-term connections between men and women have released AI based features like automated photo selection for profiles and filtering of fake accounts but they haven't officially committed to AI agents that do things like setting up a date without human intervention.
When it's fully up and running by 2027 at the latest Grindr said the wingman feature will be available as an assistant for its nearly 14 million app users helping them keep track of conversations with favorite users, recommend long-term relationship candidates and suggest dating spots. Down the line it will take on more agentic AI functions like
making restaurant reservations or even dating another AI agent. Chief executive George Erison said in an interview, for instance a wingman could have a conversation with another wingman after their humans have matched so that by the time the humans actually go on
a date they have a quote robust view of each other. Erison said bot to bot conversation not only saves the humans time it might also spot dating deal breakers early on he said the wingman which users would interact with like a chat bot is currently being tested
by a small group of users. But the group is slated to expand to roughly 1000 by the end of the year and 10,000 next year Erison said I always knew that AI was going to be a really big deal and as we saw where generative AI was going I realized a lot of this extension
stuff can actually be done by AI Erison said one of Grindr's biggest limitations in building an AI agent was preserving user privacy Erison said important for any company it's critical for Grindr users who aren't public about their sexuality or who live in countries where
it's illegal or taboo to be gay. Another reason for caution precise movements of millions of users of Grindr have been collected from a digital advertising network and made available for sales since at least 2017 though in 2020 Grindr cut off the flow of location data to any ad networks and quote nothing more for you today talk to you tomorrow