Climate Insurance and Chasing Ducks Across the Street

low carbon economy. If you're not lucky enough to attend in person, benef clients or BENOF users can still follow the action on the BENF mobile app. Just tap on the summit. Tap there you can see a full agenda with speaker bios and the presentation slides from the BENF talks. Those are talks from our BENF analysts. You can also see a full list of the attendees. Today, we are going to talk with the MC of the Delhi Summit,

Nathaniel or not Bullard. He is the global head of Executive Insights for B and E F. And what does that title mean. Well, he wears many hats for us over here, and we'll hear all about that in the interview. One of those is writing a weekly op ed called spark Lines. It is published through Bomberg Opinion and you can find it on the terminal under Ni Bullard b U L L A R D or on Bloomberg dot com under spark Lines, or search for Bullard. In either location.

You can sign up for a weekly distribution, which I must say I am a happy receiver of because his pieces are short and pithy and all around interesting. Today we're going to talk to him about two spark lines, among other things. And just as a quick reminder, B and the F does not provide investment or strategy advice. You can hear a full disclaimer at the end of the show. And right now let's jump in. Hi Na, thank you for joining us today. Hi Danna, him Mark,

How are you guys doing well? So not Bullard, how would you describe your role within So? My role is a veteran analyst, and I say that very seriously, and that I've been doing this now for twelve years, since before we were required in a number of different sectors and a number of different markets. There are probably not that many people that have had that kind of great rotation through a lot of the things we do, and

also are not currently running a big team. So years ago in television, we used to have a colleague who is described as an editor at large. This is a sort of an equivalent analyst at large position, and what that actually entails is about even thirds split between doing things with our own management committee, like with the two of you and with John morre CEO and with our

other colleagues. Another third is doing public presentations, so the sort of classic I talk and travel kind of work that a lot of our analysts already do, but with a with a particular angle on it. Generally speaking, it's either very broadcast so it's something for like three four, five hundred or a thousand people, or very narrow cast to let's say a corporate board a lot of times asking about similar ideas but with a very different set

of vectors for delivery. And then finally, I write every week I have a project that I started five years ago as an email essentially for friends and Emily of be in the f of the time, that was just published by us through our marketing capabilities and now is published by Bloomberg Opinion, which publishes well Opinion by Bloomberg authors.

And it goes out as an email, which is how it originated, it goes out on the web, and it goes out on the Bloomberg terminal, usually on Friday's maybe sometimes with some flexibility depending on the timing of what I'm writing about. So you sent us a couple uh different pieces today to say, hey, guys, study up a

little bit before we have a chat um. We can dive into those, but I think one that we were talking about that was pretty well received, just one called climate change is all most of us have ever known. That's right, So tell us a little bit about what you wrote there and what it means and really the message that you were trying to send with that. Certainly. So there's another contributor to Bloomberg in Singapore who was

a former trader. His name is Mark Cutmore, and he did the ODDNS podcast a couple of years ago that Joe Wisenhal and Tracy All the Way Run, and he said something that is stuck with me and is a sort of guiding principle for a lot of this work, which is markets think in narratives. So we're often looking at things from either an intensely analytical or a very factual basis, but at the broadest sense of markets with the capital m They think in narratives and in stories.

And one of the challenges that I find in dealing with a discussion about climate change in particular is that it is quite experiential for a lot of people. And I mean experience in a couple of ways. One how old you are, like, what you what you knew as a child, what informs your expectation based on what you knew when you were young? And also your experience within

the corporate world. Are you nearer to retirement than you are to initiating your job, let's say, And in fact, if you are the kind of senior people that I'm engaging with most of the time, that's almost axiomatic. They're almost all that way. Very rare is it that you go to, say, a board of directors and somebody's like, yeah, I'm twenty four, and more likely they're double that or even triple that age, right, And so their their job is to sort of traffic in and build off of

their years and decades of experience. But I think that has a way of conquering the ability to look at sort of forward narratives. And so my frame for this and thinking about climate change was a couple of the publications that had come out in from third parties, one of them was a precipitation chart in the United States. This is from Noah So, one of our research institutes in the US that it published that the trailing twelve months was the wettest twelve months in the United States

since and probably forever. There's really no way of knowing before, and extremely wet, like much wetter than it's ever been. Now, that's a very noisy kind of signal, but if you smooth it out, you can see that it's like about ten percent wetter than the long term average has ever been.

Um I also realized that if you if you fit these things against the average across the twentieth century, that it's been above average for about forty something years, right, so we loss the average on the way up, and we're still there and actually mean surface temperatures a global surface temperatures around the world have fallen on almost exactly

the same kind of a pattern. There's a thirty year interval in which averages are determined and the average temperatures the benchmark is nineteen fifty one to night and in the mid nineteen seventies, the global surface temperature went above that mean and has never been below it. And so the reason that I thought that was useful was because we might be dealing with a business executive who's at the tail end of a long and illustrious career in his or her domain, and is mostly embedded in their

own business. It may not necessarily be thinking on a thirty forty year time went ahead, but that interval of climate change and that interval of precipitation matches up very nicely with the global median age, which is about thirty seven which means that actually the median person on Earth has only known something that was hotter and wetter than it was before. And if you look at places that are not you know, the global average, and that's saying

least developed countries. By the UN standard, the median age is nineteen point four years. So most people have had the entirety of their lifetimes within a system that is not variable and not fluctuating, or rather not just variable and fluctuating, but has a vector. And so if you're twenty and entering the workforce, your expectations are probably about always going to be more automation. It's also if you're

looking at your macro environment. It's always going to be hotter and it feels like it, right, And this is a narrative, is something that helps to shape and drive the way that people construct their long term vision of the future. Companies do this in the form of scenario planning. I try to do it in six or seven hundred words in an email that people received with a few charts, but I think it's part of the same kind of idea.

And I realized that the only the only way to sort of convince people about that that they are carrying their own stories with them is to tell another story. And it's a useful framework. I think we guess, for one thing, the numbers around it are inarguable. I mean, you can you can argue about mean surface temperature, but you're not really arguing with me, would be any of analysts you're arguing with, you know, laboratories and research institutes.

So you mentioned the piece that sentiment is changing around these things. Can you describe kind of how some of the sentiments are changing. So very fewer and fewer people who do not believe in climate change, particularly people that

are younger. More and more people believe that not only is it occurring, but it is anthropogenic, so it's caused by people, and there there is a reason to sort of disaggregate those those two beliefs, right well, giving that it happens means well, you know, we go through these periods once every million years or whatever, so what and and in truth that does happen globally or in the long geneologic timeline. It usually coincides with what we call

greatest extinctions, but it does occur on its own. Pleasant pleasant, isn't it. But the next aspect, though, is that it's being caused by people, meaning that there is something to be There's both blame, but I would say more importantly, there's something to be done as opposed to nothing to

be done. And I think that that's that's the sort of thing that we start to see show up in a business context, partly as imperative, you know, we have to do this, but depending on the company, partly as opportunity as well, Like if doing doing this, it might be a way to first of all, cap your downsides as much as possible, Right so the sort of sort of resilience dividend or robustness, and the other part is

to capture some upside from it. We're we're better prepared and are therefore in a better position to provide for be meaningful in a future that is whether or more volatile. More everything you're writing specifically for business audience. You are, you are on the Bloomberg terminal and also have a newsletter to the wider world, but there there is a

specific audience here. There are two other pieces that you wrote, the one called climate Change puts Insurers to the test and the other how far will Insurers go to detach from coal? Now, I'm really glad you brought up scenarios. Scenario planning is something that is kind of at the core of the TCFD Task Force for Climate related Financial disclosures. Additionally, it seems to be getting to be at the core for a lot of businesses, both corporates and finance UM

and not just relegated to this insurance space. Whether they're constantly trying to come up with probabilities, but these probabilities of likelihood around these climate change scenarios seem to be going more mainstream. Do you see any evidence of that coming about UM or maybe that's illustrated in these two pieces.

There's an interesting thing always about watching insurance because it's it's like a market of other markets, almost right, and it in turn has its own risk market called reinsurance. But the reason I think that it's very warden to watch is because it is both obviously the the arbiter and the underwriter of risk, but also it is a major investor in assets of all kinds of classes. So

it has this this unusual exposure to basically anything. So let's say that you are you are a you're an orige insure and you underwrite the risks around a coal

coal plant, qual fired power plant. You are exposed to anything that you have underwritten on the asset itself, but you also might have you might own equity in the company that in turn neither provides fuel to that or owns the company that owns the coal plant, or something like that, and so you're exposed to whatever business dynamics happen as well, both the physical risks and the financial

risk that are associated with one of these assets. So insurance is a sort of a uniquely multifaceted way of looking at any kind of macro risk. That's generally why

they're fairly risk averse. Um they're also really highly regulated, and that's the key part that I looked at in my piece, which was that the Bank of England's Prudential Regulation Authority, the regulator for in fiduciary institutions, puts out a stress test that it sends to all general insurers and I think they do them for banks as well, and a lot of it is usual stuff, tell us your capital ratios, tell us whatever, whatever kind of things, and then they like to and this is a good thing,

sort of throw something else new in there each time, and they're they're sort of less official than the kind of standard stuff that always happens. But in the most recent one a few months ago, the Bank of England p r A says, tell us about your exposure to cyber security and to climate risk, and they do it by having you lot a spreadsheet that says I have X many assets and these these asset classes and in these scenarios, I'm going to write their book value down

by this. So it's it's very it's very blunt. I mean, if I can figure it out, it can't be that complicated, So it's it's fairly simple. Uh, it's coming from a very serious regulatory institutions. You more or less have to do it. I don't think you running to punt on it. And it's it's got some very clear directives around it. So I looked at that as a way of saying, Okay, well, this is like what the regulator of the people who

underwrite an assess risk thinks. The risks might be very a very interesting way for us to be to be approaching what might be happening and how companies might think about it. And it's they're not small numbers in terms of what a write down of asset classes would look like. I can one of the transition scenarios of climate change. They say, you write your cold book off by more than which ouch if you're you know, if you're an investor,

that that's pretty that's pretty severe. And in fact they actually call it disorderly like it's not it's not a sort of like, well, we can smoothly transition out of this. It's more like things have changed so significantly that these assets are trending towards worthless, or they're they're so heavily impaired that there's something that you you have to get out of, no matter what that no matter what's happening.

So when I think it is actually very useful that when looking at the two scenarios the Bank of eng And is asking for, is they on the surface of nothing in common with each other cybersecurity and climate risk. But the more I thought about it, they actually have quite a bit in common. They're both pervasive, very large. I guess mark what we would call an attack surface

in which things can happen. Right in cybersecurity, it's everything from your connected doorbell or the you know, the connected pump in your fish tank can be used as a point of entry to somebody's CRM and you now stolen everybody's credit card information. So these think this bloomberg business. We actually wrote about this and I thought climate is actually kind of similar. Is that like, basically everything ends up affected by this. It's not just that it's hotter,

it's also that things are more volatile. Most of our built environment was designed around some sort of standard that if it's no longer the standard, things just don't work as well. It creates brittleness throughout the system. Uh paradox, And it was actually easier to measure what might be problematic from climate change that was from cybersecurity, even though it's a really long term thing. But I like that.

I think that that that construct that the Bank of England has helpfully put together is one that I would imagine comes into the scenario planning and the scenario thinking of a lot of the institutions that we deal with. Is it like, well, if you went to a company you said do you have a cybersecurity strategy and they

said nah, we'd be a bit surprised. I would imagine that for pretty much any big institution we would have the same reaction if in five years time they said I don't have a climate change scenario policy or risk assessment or way of thinking about it. So do you think these things are things that happened in as curve, that just happened all of a sudden Very much so.

I mean, if you if you look at them, if you look at these things again, thinking in stories, very few institutions want to be the first to do something, even fewer, very few institutions want to be the last to do something. So, particularly when you're talking about risk, when you're talking about standards and things like that, they tend to go slowly and then suddenly and then especially once you if you think about it, is a group of peers, right, they all want to be doing it.

Who wants to be who wants to be the last insurance company that does not have a policy about thermal coal you don't write or you've relegated yourself to essentially a very specialty part of the business. Who wants to be the auto company that has zero electric vehicle strategy

would be another analogy. I read Bob Dudley's talk at Chatham House a couple of weeks ago and scoring them to train in and it really seemed like vp IS is on its way right, not maybe not the first, but maybe the first oil major to really just go up the curve. And but they were the first for a while for a while and then backed out. But

it looks like they're they're backing back in. But but so you know, Bob Doney, the CEO of BP and his colleague who is his counterpart rather at Shell Bend and Britain, they they are both quite vocal about these sorts of things. By the time that they've each that point of public discussion, it's probably relatively well considered within

the rest of the organization there. Let's put it this, or they're probably not winging it it's it's going, it's going through a very thoughtful apparatus, especially for institutions that really do plan to So I but I, but I what I don't know yet and what is probably in a neutral statement unclear for quite some time as exactly what that means, you know, is for a company, is it primarily rated towards risk? Is is it primarily rated

towards opportunity? If you think about it from a strategic planning perspective, do you think that there's an average time from announcement of change in a company to actual implementation. It's a fantastic question that I think depends much more upon the nature of the business and its own cultures, embrace of speed, openness to change, and where where it probably is along its own journey with its own from

lack of a better word, stuff. So, companies that have lots of resources of various types, and I would put in this in this context, could say a diversified metals and mining company has upside scenarios and not upside scenarios within its portfolio of assets. In an electric vehicle high electric vehicle penetration future, in a very climate change the future and whatever there there's there's there's pluses and minuses. A lot of times those organizations tend to move sometimes

actually more supp only because they can. It's Pewer play. Companies that have essentially no upside from a transition away from one resource towards another. That and I say this neutral e are fairly naturally less enthusiastic about such things. It's the more active fight rather than adapt. I think that's I think that's a way to say it, because adapt adaptation is it's not necessarily not in the d n A. It's more like not in the capability of

the resources that are given. It would require doing something completely different, especially for institutions for which you know, a lot of the value and the way in which they are valued is in assets that they own, you know, years of future reserves and things like that. Those those are not a particularly resilient resource when it comes to when it comes to a future that might not be using so much. You had another piece, Actually they said,

like they're those numbers becoming increasingly meaningless. Isn't that right? Was that not you? That was Liam Denning? Sorry, I wish, I wish I wrote something that good. Yeah, it was. It was great, so good in fact that it couldn't have been written by That's definitely on the Mdenning piece. When you're looking at the change curve, people do resist change, whether that be groups of people in a company or individuals.

And I'm actually thinking, as you're talking about these company dynamics and change and opportunity and how you sipeon through that, on this very micro level, individuals are doing that. So I am actually going to pivot us to two other notes. So one is self driving fixed for a population problem, and the other is Hong Kong's taxi fleet pages in real time. Uh. Now, by Hong Kong's taxi fleet, you're

talking about people. And I must say that we spend a lot of time talking about AI and self driving and whether or not this is going to replace physical drivers and then Uber indeedy and who those physical drivers are and those physical drivers, Yeah, they're They're real people who have adapted in many regards, or maybe in Hong Kong's case, not adapted to this rapid implementation of change in how we move people and things around and in

what and how it all comes together. So as this change is happening to people around the world in real time, talk a little bit about those notes, because I think one of the fun things that you get to do is not just talk about implications for companies and opportunities, but actually how it's going to affect everyone's lives. Thank you, I I yeah, I had a lot of fun with that one. I didn't give in Hong Kong for four years,

so it's close to heart. And actually marketing into this a bit light on how to you come up with an idea for something. A lot of them are actually experiential, even if it sounds kind of lame to talk about experiential in the context of like reading business reports, but

it's experiential. There's an aha moment, and this was reading something in in the Hong Kong English language newspaper the South China Morning Post that just said something about Hong Kong's taxi drivers are like a record average old age and it is quite venerable, like unexpectedly old mid sixties.

Mid sixties is a sort of median age for a for a taxi driver in Hong Kong, but there are actually a fair number that are significantly older than that are older than seventy yes eight percent of Hong Kong taxi drivers are older than seventy. And remember this is the this is the locality with the highest average average age population on Earth or sorry, average knife expectancy in

the eighties. So there are plenty of people who are over seventy and if they're in good health, have potentially another fifteen or twenty years of working if ahead of them. And yeah, it's an it's an interesting sort of microcosm of many different aspects of transportation in the demographics and of society. But I thought about it particularly as like as something that is aging in real time and will

not be replaced. And I used it, and this is not characteristic of my work all the time, to use it as a sort of metaphor for the rest of Hong Kong's economy that's also aging in real time and predominantly services, does not have an above replacement birth rate, and so is facing things that While we worry in a lot of economies that automation and AI and things like that will be putting people out of work, I sort of imagined in the context here, if they will

be doing the work that needs to be done, because who else will be doing it? I don't know about it. If we're gonna have self driving cars in Hong Kong. The traffic is traffic, and most important to that, topography is incredibly complex, and so it's it's not the same thing as driving on an empty, prepared highway somewhere, but some something won't have to give in the way that people move around or the expectations of how one gets

from place to place. Maybe in what or with whom If you continue to have the Hong Kong taxi drivers become older and older and there is no sort of replacement to go with it, I want to know more about the complex topography. So another city that you also lived in, San Francisco, has a lot of hills and a lot of technology implementation in this driving space, and I keep thinking it wouldn't exactly physically be where I would start, but it is where it is all kind

of coming from. Um, how does what are the barriers that Hong Kong has so ongoing? Hong Kong is very dense, Uh, it has a very rich visual landscape if you will. There's often a lot of things going on, So there would be a really really really high amount of signal if you think about it, especially through through some kind of machine or computer vision, and that's so that's a sort of like the vision part of it. The driving part is that there's all kinds of like like narrow

one way roads that wind through the mountains. UH signages and two languages. So you might find that the more prominent sign would be in Chinese characters, and you'd better make sure that your computer vision can read that if

you need to be reading a sign. There's also lots of other traffic going on, everything from motorbikes to buses to billionaires going to play ma jong in a Bentley h two people darting in and out of traffic with stuff, either moving things or just commuting home or whatever it might be. So yeah, it's it's very complicated. I think about it's as it's like all edge cases all the

way down. And it's funny when you said about San Francisco is good because as an engineer and Chris Rmson, who was part of the early days of Google self driving auto prob him and he said, yeah, we were doing this in pongo Alto or sorry, in Mountain View rather, which is a lower context environment, we might say. And he said, but one of the things that our cars encountered was a woman in a wheelchair chasing ducks across the street with a broom, And he said, no, obviously,

this isn't something that we've programmed in. We didn't say let's sit down and have that Nadie in the wheelchair with the broom chasing ducks module. So that doesn't go in there. But you need to train train the machine on how to respond to it. But I feel like Hong Kong in particular would be nothing but that like it would it would be. It would be that pretty much straight through. And that's probably milder version than let's

say Jakarta traffic or Negos or Bangkok or Manila. So I think about it's like, that's why this is so complicated, self driving self driving service automobiles to transfer people around. You already see them in early phases in retirement communities in the United States, where they make perfect sense. They're essentially an automation of a job that already exists, which is getting an electric golf cart and go from bingo

to bed. But Hong Kong will be replacing this full stack of very rich and dense signals and possibilities and scenarios to be played through Sonat's got to jump off for a flight because he's just visiting us right now. So I'm going to catch him before he leaves, and I'm gonna ask him, as somebody who's trying to create a successful podcast, how do you create a successful storyboard

of original ideas every single week? I can ask this question by our more recently arrived colleagues pretty much every week, and I say, well, you know, it takes. When they asked, usually how long has it taken? I said, well, it takes, you know, four or five hours plus a decade. Uh, you know, it's the it's the decade part of sort of a fairly rich repertory of stuff that you've seen before, and essentially doing an interrogation when you see something new,

is this different enough? Is this different enough to be meaningful? Is it also different in a way that's useful? And let me see what I can do with it. I actually find it very helpful to have the imperative of doing something every week, right, And I actually I think that that's distinct in a lot of ways from the general research process. I have to do something, so that

means find something that's interesting. A lot of times I have a sort of a bad catalog of data sets that I know will be useful and they're best when they're scarce, their best when they're not things that people

have seen. This thing I mentioned from the Bank of England Credential Regulation Authority, I sincerely doubt that anyone outside of the world of insurance or other banking regulators or reporters on banking regulation would have looked at and even then I don't know that they would have taken the angle on it than I did. So the storyboarding for me is try to figure out what's first of all, what is new, and then is it new enough to be useful? Uh? And is it useful enough to be

sort of durable? When worth telling a story about the definition of a patentable good in the United States, something for which you can get a patent is it has to be novel and non obvious. And I think of that as like essentially a pretty good, pretty good background. And I don't say that just because Mark and I used to work right down the street from the PTO of the Trade Office, but no, but that that that's

actually it for me. And sometimes I have, like I do right now, about four or five of them not quite in the can, as they say, but more or less ready to go. Things that I can load up and write while i'm while I'm traveling. Sometimes it's a Wednesday night and I have no idea what I'm gonna be doing by Thursday morning. But that's that's that's common. So you're writing one in the plane today this time, I already wrote it, but I'll probably be editing. I'll

be I'll be editing it. So I'm I'm editing something that that That originated from driving to the pool with my daughter through one of the worst intersections in the world in Washington, d C. Which is the original boundary line of Lanfrance City Plan, where it intersects with the Windy's and New York Avenue Florida Avenue. A bunch of the streets. Mark knows this one. It's dire, it's really awful, And there was a there was a man driving a convertible stuck in the middle of this traffic, and I

was wondering, what's a convertible these days? And I thought that that's like, this looks really unpleasant, and so that was like, hmm, instead of just like leaving that there, actually then went into the research was like, how how are convertible sales doing in the US? It turns out rather poorly. They're shrinking as a percentage of total sales. I mean they were never like a lot of total sales of cars, but down from just under a percent of sales a few years ago to about half a

percent right now. It's similar diminution in the number of models of cars that are being sold. And at the same time, ftuvs are are pretty much everything. And then the real hook for this was that Volkswagen announced, uh two days ago that for the first time since nineteen sixty six, it will not be selling station wagons in the United States. It just won't be selling them. So it's stop the Beetle nen station. The Beetle's gone, the the the golf sports wagon, and the all track are gone.

So the base model b W is gonna be a t one. It'll be a tigue. And in fact, they it says in the press release it's an SUV world now. It sure is right, And I thought, okay, great, but you know, that just sort of confirms a prior so that we already know that. So I thought about it

a little bit differently as well. There's all kinds of other things that people are now imputing to the car, including this fascinating study from Japan by NTT DoCoMo, which runs a car sharing service, that people in Japan, because cars are actually quite cheap to rent by the hour, are renting them to do things like take a nap, or practice their English, or change into a Halloween costume, or practice a speech or a talk or something like that. And this study ends with a great line sid like,

the car is a private space. And I thought about that more. It's like, well, an suv is a private car, but it's not a great private space. And in the future, if these cars are going to be driving themselves, let's say twenty years from now, I don't know that the form factor of an suv is what you want. You probably want something more like giving room or the original Volkswagen camper van. Do you think that's why we see

all those, you know, the prototype self driving cars. I do. Yeah, they yeah, they're they're boxing because you they have another element in them which they may not be owned by the drivers, so you're less attached to the form factor. But it also reminds me of a number of my friends in the United States, who mentioned with some chagrin at first and then amazement, I bought a Christco Pacifica.

I bought a real many them. And though like it's kind of great like that, actually like the sound system is good, I can pack a lot of children in here. Like it's not the it's definitely not the most awesome car. But I'm a boring named dad anyways. So so there you go. For those that want to do more than just listen to your interesting stories and would like to read them, which actually takes substantially less time investment and listening to a podcast it does. Where can people subscribe

to receive your goodness once a week? So on the web you can go to Bloomberg Opinion and there will be a list of contributors that I'm there. Go to any one of those stories, click on it, and at the bottom there will be a link to subscribe, and that way you can get it just through whatever email

and address you would like. And then if you are a Bloomberg Professional Service user, then you can go on the terminal and I which is the news code, and I my surname the U L L A R D. You'll see all the stuff I write and then you can click on a subscribe button. You may occasionally get an update about the President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, James Bullard, in there. You can ignore that that's not me. I do find myself all of the time looking at headline.

It says Bullard says two rate cuts might be within range, And I think I don't remember saying that, but I agree with that. Yeah, I'm not saying it's wrong. I'm just saying I don't remember thinking that. Nat. Thank you very much for joining us today. Like folks, bloombergin e F is a service provided by Bloomberg Finance LP and its affiliates. This recording does not constitute, nor it should it be construed as investment advice, investment recommendations, or a

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