The Supply Chain Secrets Podcast cuts through the noise to bring you real, unfiltered insights from the front lines of global logistics. Whether you’re a shipper, NVO, carrier, or just someone who needs to stay ahead of market shifts, we deliver analysis and hard-hitting conversations that actually matter. Visit nyshex.com/podcast to register to attend live!
Last refreshed: ⓘ
Follow this podcast in the Metacast mobile app to refresh it and see new episodes.
Don't just listen to podcasts. Learn from them with transcripts, summaries, and chapters for every episode. Skim, search, and bookmark insights. Learn more
Iran has seized two MSC vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, bookings into the Persian Gulf have collapsed 66% year over year, and Somali pirates are back. The maritime risk picture is deteriorating fast. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Transpacific NYFI movements by subtrade, including why Northeast Asia rates are more volatile than other origins Why 20-foot and 40-foot rates on the Transatlantic have completely decoupled -- and what that means if you're shipping dense cargo...
Ocean freight markets are sending mixed signals this week: Asia-Europe spot rates are falling, Pacific rates are ticking up, and Atlantic rates jumped sharply, but the bigger story is the widening spread between what different shippers are paying and what that uncertainty means. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Why expanding rate spreads across Asia-Europe, Transpacific, and Atlantic trades signal growing market uncertainty The Strait of Hormuz situation: the failed openin...
Freight markets are reacting to the Strait of Hormuz crisis, but not in the way many expected. In this week’s episode of Supply Chain Secrets, we break down why rate increases have been relatively modest so far, despite major geopolitical disruption, and what signals to watch beneath the surface. This episode covers: • Why Asia–US and Asia–Europe rates are rising gradually, not sharply • The role of bunker fuel in driving current rate increases • What early NYFI-linked futures activity is tellin...
Tomorrow, April 7, container freight futures tied to the NYSHEX Freight Index (NYFI) go live on Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). In this week’s episode of Supply Chain Secrets, the conversation focuses on what that means for the industry and how these new tools fit into freight strategy. Rich Heath, who leads financial products at NYSHEX, joins to break down how freight futures work, how they connect to index-linked contracts, and how companies can begin thinking about managing freight risk in a...
Freight markets are reacting to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz but not in the way many expected. In this week’s episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline and Lars break down what is actually happening beneath the surface of the rate data. While spot rates are only moving modestly week over week, the cumulative impact is building, and key signals in the market are starting to shift. This episode covers: • Why rate increases so far have been gradual, not explosive • The sharp divergence betwee...
What will freight rates look like for the rest of 2026? In this week’s episode of Supply Chain Secrets, the discussion moves beyond current spot rates to what the market is already pricing into the future. From forward curves on key trades to the unfolding situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the episode explores how fuel costs, demand uncertainty, and capacity dynamics are shaping freight price expectations. The key question: are current forecasts too conservative, or already balancing competing ...
The Strait of Hormuz crisis has abruptly changed the tone of the ocean freight market. In this week’s Supply Chain Secrets episode, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen are joined by Peter Stallion of Clarksons to unpack what is happening right now and what it means for shippers, carriers, and NVOCCs navigating another wave of volatility. Peter brings the perspective of one of the world’s largest shipping brokers and futures market participants, explaining how financial tools are beginning to complem...
Back from TPM, the team dives into the biggest forces reshaping ocean shipping right now. This week’s episode covers: Demand data and a widening imbalance on Asia to Europe, plus what that means for headhaul pricing How parcel and DTC trade lanes are shifting as brands rethink sourcing and resilience The latest on IEEPA being ruled unlawful, what “refunds” might actually mean, and why the importer of record matters Section 122 tariffs, the 150 day clock, and what comes next The Strait of Hormuz ...
Recorded live during TPM26 in Long Beach, this episode breaks down the rapidly escalating situation involving Iran and what it means for ocean shipping immediately. Lars Jensen walks through the on-the-ground implications for the Strait of Hormuz and the ripple effects that can spread congestion and rate spikes far beyond the Middle East. The team also explains why “Phantom GRIs” show up in quote-based indices, what that means for contract negotiations, and why transaction-based indices like NYF...
This week’s Supply Chain Secrets focuses squarely on tariff volatility and what it means for global trade. The Supreme Court overturns IEEPA tariffs. A new blanket tariff is introduced days later. Hundreds of commodity-level exemptions are published. Refund pathways remain unclear. The trade environment shifted dramatically within 72 hours. Lars walks through what is actually in effect, what remains in place under Sections 301 and 232, and why the current policy landscape makes forward planning ...
This week’s Supply Chain Secrets is jam-packed. Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver dig into sharp post–Chinese New Year moves: loaded spot rates falling faster than expected, spreads tightening across Pacific trades, and what that means for market certainty. We unpack carrier results, network changes from Ocean Alliance’s “Day 10,” and real operational risk in the Red Sea return. The headline story: Hapag-Lloyd’s agreement to acquire most of ZIM’s fleet: what it means for Gemini, MSC, and competiti...
Freight markets are turning earlier—and faster—than seasonal patterns would suggest. In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets , Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen unpack why Pacific spot rates are collapsing well ahead of Chinese New Year, how this downturn compares to historical seasonality, and what that means for carriers and shippers alike. Lars also introduces a deeper way to look at the market: not just the headline rate, but the spread around it. Using real NYFI data, he explains how wide or ...
Rates are rolling over earlier than expected, and the gap between quoted and paid freight rates is widening again. In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets , Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen break down what’s driving the post–Chinese New Year slowdown, why quoted spot rates tend to exaggerate both peaks and troughs, and what that means for shippers heading into contract season. Lars also shares a concrete example showing how index choice alone can materially change freight costs—especially when pr...
Freight markets are turning earlier than usual. In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets , Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen break down sharp declines in quoted rates, early signs that the Chinese New Year peak has already passed, and what actual paid spot rates are signaling across key trades. Lars also walks through a real-world example showing how choosing the wrong index in an index-linked contract can materially impact costs, underscoring why detail matters as indexing gains traction. The conv...
As 2026 gets underway, early signals are already diverging. In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets , Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen are joined by Matthew Chicalace of Hellmann Worldwide Logistics to break down the growing gap between quoted and paid rates, early NYFI movements post–Chinese New Year, and what those signals really say about the market. The conversation also dives into rising interest in index-linked contracts, how forwarders and carriers are approaching contract season, and why ...
As 2026 gets underway, early market signals are already diverging. In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets , Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen break down where freight rates are heading post-Chinese New Year, what the latest Container Trade Statistics reveal about global demand, and why North America continues to lag the rest of the world. They also explore escalating geopolitical risks — from Iran and the Strait of Hormuz to Greenland and terminal ownership — and what these flashpoints could mean...
In this 2025 year-end review, Caroline, Lars, and Don Davis reflect on a year defined by tariff whiplash, uneven demand, and persistent gaps between quoted vs. paid spot rates. They also look ahead to 2026, where the base case remains continued volatility—with the Red Sea/Suez question, shifting capacity, and geopolitics keeping markets on edge. Key themes covered: Why 2025 ended “mixed”: SCFI up while paid, loaded spot rates stayed uneven How tariffs reshaped shipper behavior toward more just-i...
Global shipping enters another volatile week. Caroline, Lars, and guest Michael Wray of Ocean Network Express (ONE) unpack rate swings across key trades, shifting sourcing strategies, Mexico’s new China tariffs, Red Sea uncertainty, and a surge in maritime risk incidents—from border conflicts to tanker seizures. In this episode: NYFI trends across Asia–Europe and the Pacific Why 20’ > 40’ pricing persists on TA eastbound The slowdown in Asia–Europe demand Mexico’s new tariffs on China Red Sea...
This week, Caroline and Lars break down another volatile shift in the market — from weakening global demand to unusual rate distortions and rising geopolitical risks. In this episode: NYFI loaded spot rates for Asia–North Europe and the Pacific A rare 20′ > 40′ price inversion on TA Eastbound Global demand dropping sharply — and why Asia–Europe is the culprit Tariff investigations and the impact on food imports Renewed Thailand–Cambodia tensions and supply chain rerouting A vessel attack in B...
This week on Supply Chain Secrets , Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen are joined by Sagil Capital Partner Mark Hendricks to break down how freight rate volatility is affecting both shippers and investors. They cover the latest NYFI and SCFI movements, widening differences between sub-trades, the newest global reliability numbers, and updates on the ONE Henry Hudson and Red Sea routing. Mark shares how equity investors value shipping companies in unstable markets and why futures and hedging tools m...
Global container rates are sliding fast — and volatility is here to stay. In this week’s Supply Chain Secrets , Caroline and Lars break down what’s happening across key trades and what it means for shippers heading into 2026. In this episode: NYFI and SCFI data showing sharp rate declines across Pacific and South American trades How new tools and freight rate derivatives can help manage volatility Import trends suggesting major inventory reductions across U.S. retail sectors A deep dive into the...
This episode dives into the current "jittery" ocean freight market, revealing extreme rate divergences across origins and equipment types, particularly in the Trans-Pacific. It provides crucial insights for 2026 contract planning, highlighting the potential for lower rates and the critical need for Red Sea reopening contingencies. Additionally, the discussion covers new tariff agreements, mixed Q3 carrier results with Hapag-Lloyd's notable performance, and geopolitical updates including the ongoing debate around port automation and a significant new US tariff threat.
Rates are dropping, pirates are reappearing, and demand is diverging across the globe. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver unpack what last week’s NYSHEX London event revealed about market volatility — and why the container industry’s “old normal” isn’t coming back. They cover: Sir Richard Dearlove’s surprising optimism on the Red Sea crisis Why NYFI data shows loaded spot rates collapsing again The widening gap between 20’ and 40’ rates What’s behind North America’s lagging demand ...
Container shipping just won’t sit still. This week, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen unpack the latest volatility across global trades — from Pacific spot rates showing strange regional “vibrations,” to a 20–30% capacity surge on the transatlantic that’s pushing rates to decade lows. They also break down the temporary pause in the U.S.–China trade war — what it really means for importers heading into 2026 — and why a new uptick in Somali piracy adds one more layer of complexity to an already unse...
Freight rates might look like they’re holding steady — but when you adjust for inflation, the real story tells a very different tale. In this week’s Supply Chain Secrets , Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen break down why inflation-adjusted freight rates on major trade lanes have quietly slipped below pre-pandemic levels, even as indices like the SCFI show nominal increases. They also discuss how politically charged tariffs are blurring the line between trade policy and politics, and why a single C...
This episode delves into the current state of global shipping, highlighting the disconnect between quoted and actual spot rates, which are at a two-year low. It examines the implications of the IMO's Net Zero framework being delayed, potentially stalling green fuel investments and encouraging regional legislation. Discussions also cover the fragile Red Sea ceasefire, ongoing US-China tariff tensions leading to carrier adjustments, and significant port congestion in Europe due to labor actions.
Tariff whiplash, “China’s USTR,” and a carbon levy vote—yet spot rates look oddly calm. Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen cut through the chaos: Trump’s 100% tariff warning vs. the Nov 10 tariff snap-back, China’s mirror policy (including the 25% ownership twist), and last-minute U.S. duties on ship-to-shore cranes (with 150% proposed on terminal gear). We also unpack why Trans-Pac spot rates paid are at ~12-month lows despite $3k GRI filings, and what CTS load-date demand says about where volumes...
This episode unpacks global shipping developments, including eroding Pacific freight rates, carriers' blank sailings, and new USTR restrictions on Chinese-owned vessels, prompting potential retaliation from China. It also highlights new IMO regulations for charcoal transport to prevent vessel fires and explains the complexities of different shipping rate indices. The discussion concludes with an update on Red Sea security and an upcoming event on geopolitical risks.
The latest Supply Chain Secrets dives into the widening gap between quoted rates and what’s actually paid . Lars Jensen explains how the NYFI reveals a “phantom peak” that never materialized on the Trans-Pacific, the sharp declines on Asia–South America, and why Golden Week isn’t offering carriers relief. We also break down Trump’s tariff announcements, what the upcoming USTR fees mean for carriers (and how Seaspan and Hede Shipping are reacting), and look ahead at the vessel order book and why ...
In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets , Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen break down the latest volatility in container shipping. Asia–Europe rates continue their seasonal slide, while the Pacific faces a dramatic collapse in demand just as carriers push blank sailings. Lars explains why the gap between quoted and paid spot rates matters, why blank sailings may slow—but not stop—rate erosion, and how Golden Week timing is shaping strategy. The conversation also covers the looming U.S.–China tari...
