Hello everyone, and welcome to another edition of Breaking Even with Al Payton on your official Supercoach AFL podcast feed. I'm Al Payton, joined today for a huge episode heading into round four by Patch.
Welcome again, Hello, well, delighted to be here. Thank you for having me on once again.
And the DPP king himself. I'm sure that will come up plenty of times during the podcast, Tim Mitchell, great to have you on.
Hey, Al, Yeah, it's all hotting up, isn't it? Only a couple of weeks away from those first DPP editions, so looking forward to getting stuck in. Who knows, maybe you'll week Christian petrarch I might get there.
Yeah, that has impacted some of my trade thoughts this week, but yes we'll get into all that stuff. A reminder of course, like subscribe on wherever you're listening or watching of course on Code Sports YouTube channel. And a reminder again that the Super Coach Plus free trial has expired.
So yeah, rather than getting blocked by when you try and see all your break evens and all the stats that we love in Supercoach, thirty dollars roughly or just under that for twelve months subscription is definitely money well spent. That'll also covey when Super Coach BBL comes around later in the year because it last full twelve months. So get on to that. But we'll get into your questions very shortly. But first, of course, we have to do
the HbF injury Report. Every super coach knows that managing injuries is a key to success. This is the injury Report, proudly brought to you by HbF, your Health Dream Team. Some very interesting names on the injury list this week. We'll start off with Xavier Lindsay, who as we speak
is the most traded out player in Super Coach. Of course, I think about fifty thousand of us brought him in last week and he was on the bubble, look fantastic as a rookie and looked really good early in that game, I think gain two kicks in the first two minutes. Then went down with a knee injury, shocking news for first year player. We thought he might be gone for the year, but Melbourne now saying it's a one to two week injury, so we'll probably get into that what
do we do with him? But yeah, certainly much more positive on the injury front there, and Melbourne probably will see some changes this week. Obviously Lindsay will be out, but because he Picket is available after serving his suspension, and there's a few other players who are down for fitness tests like a Kayla windsor Jake Lever, so yeah, we might see some changes at the D's this week.
Another big injury do you Remembergovern We know can be injury prone and he's out for two to four weeks with an adductor injury, so that might be very interesting for another one of our top targets this week over the Eagles and at Brisbane. Kyle Lohman is out for another week, missing another week with his ankle, so that might help Olivoy Ashcroft potentially. And I did see on their injury list to the Kitty Coleman still down a four to six weeks away.
That's very annoying for someone who didn't start because of the impeding return of Kitty Coleman.
But anyway, who you go for us Patch.
I have some very sad and devastating news out of Essendon, which thank you for giving me on the run sheet. Tom Edwards has done his ACL. I don't know if it's been confirmed yet, but it's all but confirmed from training and he will miss the rest of the season. Jack Caldwell has also done a hamstring which they haven't given a timeline at time of recording, but it's probably not good for him, maybe it's good for lacious artists. Who knows one to watch there. Tristan Cherry scared a
lot of people with a hamstring issue in a week awareness. Yeah, I'm not sure in the game, not entirely sure what it was, but yeah, Scanner is clear, so he's good to go. And Tom Stewart is a test to tell us who knows who knows? Well?
The interesting one up in Sydney, Al's Calum Mills. Sounds like he's at least another month away from returning. I know a lot of super coaches had him in their plans. Obviously heavily discounted defensive option for us this year, but sounds like he's still, yeah, potentially three four, if not longer away, So we're going to have to sort of put those plans on the back burner and potentially look
at some other options to well. Thankfully, the defensive rookies are cooking now, so might be able to just hold onto them a bit longer and wait for Calum meals, but yeah, we've got to put him. Unfortunately we won't have him for another month or so. The other big injury news to come out of the last few days is that Zach Butters's test probably since at the time of recording, more likely than unlikely that he's going to play.
So whether that has any impact on Christian Maris, who's a really popular rookie who I'm sure we're going to talk about today, Jason Francis and yeah, and Jason or Francis as well. God he's gone well, isn't he? And if we head over to the west, Sean Darcy and Hayden Young both due to play Waffle this week too, so as good as Luke Darcy was for Dos Luke Luke Jackson, Sorry it was on Sean Darcy. Is his pending return sure to have some impact there?
Yeah? Absolutely. That's a wrap on this week's injury report.
Thanks to aage BF make the Smart move join HbF your health Dream Team. So a couple quick segments before we get into the questions. One is full and Primo Watch. Have just put a couple of guys on here that we can be keeping an eye on their price coming down. Kieren Briggs is an interesting one, obviously coming back from that really horrible concussion we're around.
He scored I think five points.
He's already lost a bunch of money and he's got a break even of two hundred and two this week, so projected to lose another fifty k. So if you need a cheap ruckman, and I know there's some Matt Flynn owner's still out there, perhaps the wires move there is to hold off a week and you can maybe get Briggsy next week at a discant of price. And he scored okay, so hopefully he'll least get you through to maybe the mid year buys and then you can figure out what you.
Do with your rucks.
Then Elder Yu's had a really underwhelming start to the year. Luke Davis Uniac, he's got a break even of one fifty four. He already lost forty k, and he's going to lose some more money, so he's down to five forty eight and probably might be able to get him around the five hundred K mark, and then I think would be very interested. I got him mid year last
year to Discando was about five to seventy. I think at that stage and he was fantastic and the run home, so we know we can do but yeah, he hasn't done it yet, but that could be good for us in terms of looking for a cheap primo. What's where do we stand on Nickday because he didn't play last
week obviously, so he's still got that. As we noted last week on one hundred and fifteen break even, it says it, but one hundred and fifteen, so probably not going to get much cheaper than his current six oh two k.
Not the way players it gets. Thursday night could be an ugly watch if you don't have Nick Daekos in your team. So I've got this hope as a Blues fan that Carlton's going to find some way to tag him, send George Hewett to him or something and try and limited his influence. But yeah, there's a fair chance Nick Dacos gets out this week. I don't see him getting
a lot cheaper. I've got Kieran Briggs on the radar though, because and speaking of Carlton, like Mark Pittnay is only a week away, and I think that there's going to have to be some possibility that as good as Tom the Conning's been for us. We might need to be looking for an exit plan in the next couple of weeks, and I think Kieran Briggs for one hundred and fifty k prop it might be a pretty good option when he bottoms out.
Yeah, and the other one, I know, you were just keeping a sneaky oen with Sid Draper. Obviously rookie priced high rookie price to start the year, and he actually started losing a bit of money because he kept being the sub. But you know, there was a he sort of thought, well, maybe in a few weeks we could get him for you know, one hundred and forty K or something, But that looks like it probably won't happen now.
He just got on too early on the weekend. I think he was on in the first quarter or played about three quarters anyway, so that many actually scored. Okay, so his break evens thirty nine, But you wouldn't imagine he's going to lose a lot for sort one hundred and eighty two K, which he is now having lost
about eight or nine K on the weekend. So still like him, though, I think when he gets into that Adelaide midfield, he's going to be a really good scorer for us, and one that we might want to consider it that elevated rookie price, especially if he gets DPP in a few weeks, which is looking like a real possibility.
Yeah.
And the other one we didn't mention on the injury report was josh uh S Shelley out for four to six weeks, so that's what allowed him to get on obviously last week when he was subbed off. So maybe he comes into the two.
Ranking forward yeah, maybe please know, please no? I also hope not, but yeah, that's got to be a possibility, doesn't it. Ranking forward Drake a bit more midfield time, and.
We'll have a quick round of rookie rule level, which, as we saw last week, can really catch you out even or maybe especially in a best eighteen round. So say with you, Patch, would you field Zach Reed or Luke trainer this week?
Well, Zachari's on the bar this weellab Probably not Zach Reed.
Good call, good call, Thank you. Patch helped me out there.
Try another one, Levoy Ashcroft, tim or Mitch Nevitt Well, so.
Much depends on whether Nevert's sub Again. I haven't had a close look at the fixtures, just yet there's to see how whether that pans out. Levio as Cross was pretty underwhelming against the Cats, but I think with difficult opposition plus those really tough conditions that we saw up in queens Lean, and I think we can forgive him for that one. So probably go lee by just and then he does play the Tigers this week. Might be score against the Tigers.
And I never Yeah, the Cats play Friday night, so we should know at least early in the remurning. Now I'll try another one, Pertsch, if you had to choose between Riley Bys or conno O'Sullivan in your defense, we like him, Christian Marius, We've got to leave airscroft twice.
We'll ignore that one.
This segment's going really well. We'll try to just gip straight to the last one. And this especially for our friend Dossie. Would you feel Sam Davidson or Elijah shuittid you a forward?
Ron Tip?
Is that really question? Well, Davidson, he's not.
Everyone got it right. Last week.
Yeah, we picked Jason horn Francis as F one and we picked Sam Davidson as F six, F seven, and one is outscoring the other for about four hundred k less, so definitely Davidson.
Yeah, I don't think you'll be leaving it Fields anytime soon. Right, we'll get into the guts of the show, which is, of course your questions. Keep an eye for that tweet every week on the Tuesday Wednesday morning and we'll get to as many questions as we can. So yeah, I mean I've just found this week there's four or five players I really want to trade in. Obviously we only have a maximum of three trades. Probably ideally wouldn't use a boost I but I didn't have to. But I'm
probably going to be hard to avoid. But we'll see what people want to know. So Humphrey's or Merrick is, Yeah, I think a few people really the big one, yeah, because they're both what sort of two sixty two seventy k I only got five k difference.
Yeah. And Ryan Marritch at the Eagles has been fantastic, well fantastic on the weekend. He scored seventy one in round two after being the sub round one one twenty three on the weekend after taking kickouts and being the distributor off half back and Bally Humphrey has been playing as the third or fourth midfielder at the Suns and just looks like dare I say, shades of Dustin Martin. So both are pretty much the exact same price both. You know, Humphrey will get mid status. He's just a
thought at the moment. Marriage is mid forward. There's not a lot splitting them, and so many questions this week we're all about yeah.
Because I think this, you know, which I'm sure we'll touch on.
There's two or three really good rookies as well, so by the time you get one or two of those, probably can only get one of these guys.
Yeah, so putting you on the spot, who do you like? I still don't know. I was hoping i'd have an answer by this stage of the week. At the moment, I'm leaning towards marriage. That early DPP is a bit friendlier for my team, and I just feel like I'd rather someone playing off half back than someone playing kind
of a mid forward role. And Humphreys has scored two tons, looked really good past the eye test, but he has played Essendon and Melbourne who are not good this year, and I don't doubt he'll continue.
To have the role.
And well they didn't deserve it. Yeah, there's no doubt that Humphrey has past the eye test, but I'm just not convinced he'll stay at a hunt. He might drop to eighty five or ninety still good, still valid to trade into. Marriage, might only average the same. I don't think there's a wrong answer at the stage. Humphrey feels like the higher risk, higher reward guy, where he could be your F six. There's a chance that is r F six if he keeps the role and keeps scoring
and keeps playing really well and developing. Marriage probably less so, but I feel like I'm more confident in marriage over the next four weeks making cash than the smallest sample size I've.
Seen it from, I mean from humph Most likely both of these guys are probably a four to six week kind of player. Yeah, make a bunch of cash and then you trade them in, you know, when an upgrade season comes around round eight and nine, that kind of time. But yeah, there's a possibility one or both could hang on at least you through to the mid season boys, And for me, I think marriage is probably a little bit safer. But yeah, very hard to pick. What do
you think, Tim? You mentioned the Gold Coast straw, but it doesn't get hard for a.
While, does that well, They got Adelaide this week, which I think is going to be a pretty good litmus test of Bailey Humphrey and his development into this this midfield role. Like he's coming up against one of the sort of better perform midfields in the first few rounds of the season in Adelaide. So I don't know, Like I'm in this tricky position where I didn't start Bailey Smith because I'm an idiot, So I've got to try and fit Bailey Smith in this week into my trades,
which makes it even more difficult. But I think people who have grabbed one of Riley Bis and Christian Marias already, who are the two popular rookies this week, are in a really good spot now because like, presumably you've only used one, maybe two boosts, but this looks like a
perfect week for me to use a boost. And if you've already got one of those rookies, you can then get on both Humphrey and Marriage and you can enjoy one hundred and fifty K cash generation and an average of probably around ninety from both of them for the next four or five weeks. We go into Best twenty two as well next week, which I think you'd be more comfortable fielding those guys over some of the other rookies, especially in midfield, which is probably what Nudge's marriage ahead.
Like Bailey Humphrey might get mid status, he's sort of around the threshold for the amount of time that he's spent in midfield so far. But Aerck is already a forward mid so you can get one of those rookie
midfield as off potentially like Avan. So the other thing to consider too, West Coast has conceded ninety one scoring shots in three rounds and I think forty two behind in that time, so he's going to get an absolute glight nair of kickouts and that's probably going to give him a you'd think a floor of eighty minimum even if he doesn't get that much.
Bullet or McGovern as well.
Well.
The concern people have that is that mcgovin goes out so he has to be a little bit more accountable. But Ryan Marrick is Ryan Marrick isn't playing in defense
to be accountable. He's there for his foot skills and he's there to get the ball going for the Eagles, So I think he's going to be a really good pick for a few weeks, and if you had to pick one and hold off on the other, I'd probably take another look at Humphrey against Adelaide and see how he goes against a proper midfield as opposed to the two teams that they face so far. Gold Coast.
Yeah, I mean, I think I agree with all that.
I suppose one thing that I've heard people flowed the idea of is because I think it's probably easy to get marriage into my midfield rather than find a spot in.
The forward line.
But you could move a you know, a Bailey Smith or a Caleb Daniel into the mids for a few weeks, create opium, do it that way and then just sort of you know, shuffling deck chairs a bit and make sure that you know, in a few weeks time, you get everyone back where you want them.
But there is a way you could potentially do it.
Humphrey, do you how do you get them in? And that's the next question from Luffy wish is it worth trading Jason horn Francis if it means you can get both of them or one of them, Even some people might not have the one hundred and twenty k required to get from a rook up or even from a late zabuer lindsay up, that's eighty K. That's still a decent jump, ol. Could we trade Jason horn Francis out?
I sort of think these are separate questions in a way. I think the answer to the first one is yes. Obviously, it's been a bit of an ongoing saga that I didn't have horn Francis in my team, but most of the preseason caved.
Did you get when I asked you that question?
And now yeah, obviously wish I'd stack to my guns because he's been very averaged to start the season so far. I think I put in the trade this week someone like Seth Campbell or Ben Long or Keminidia scoring better than him so far to start the season. I'm sure he will come good. He's not going to be like this all year, but I don't think he's going to all of a sudden average one hundred and twenty like
someone like a Bayley Smith. I can understand why you just think I just have to get this guy, because if I don't have him, he could just absolutely kill me. But I don't think harn Francis is going to do that. If you look at his scoring for all of last year, he averaged basically one hundred and most of his scores were eighties and nineties, and he had half a dozen like one forties, and that's what sort of pushed his
average up. So, yeah, one of those might come this week, and you know that'll hurt if you trade him out. But I think if you think overall you're going to improve your team and maybe you know, get all this cash coming in, I think there's a.
Path that ma actually makes sense.
Would I go all the way down to a marriage or a Humphrey though that's that's a big drop.
There's a world where you do that trade like you do horn Francis to Marrick this week, and then in four, five, six weeks time you revert back. Yeah, and yes you're burning two trades, but you've made two hundred k. You've improved team this week, and really the only costure is going to be that extra trade to then get Jason
horn Francis back. But there's a chance that yeah, in five or six weeks time, their price is actually meet and you can do that trade as a straight swap, which I think is worth entertaining if you haven't burned a bunch of trades on doing silly things like me.
Yeah, I mean I think if you've got someone like Sam da Coning, who yeah, he thinks it has to go, if you can do some DVP and swap him to a marriage or something, I'd rather do it that way, or obviously if you can get up from a rookie.
But yeah, see, this is this is my issue, sorry, Patch. Like I've got Sam to Conning, who I think is expendable and I'm willing to write off as a flop. I traded him in, I didn't start him, and unfortunately it just hasn't worked out. I've still got Jaden Short sitting there in my defense as well, who I'd like to trade out. But the only DPP I've got to swing back to my defense is your brother Ben Patton.
So I can trade one of them and swing Paton back, but I then have to trade in a defender if I want to trade a second one, which means I can't get at one of Marrek, Maria's and Humphrey this week. So I'm gonna have to sacrifice and get a defender. So I hope people aren't in that same situation. As me where Yeah, your two most expendable players are both deaf only because yeah, I'm a bit snooker this week as to which way I'm going to go to try and make it all happen.
Yeah, question here from Belinda is it time to trade SDK? I mean perhaps we just universally saying.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
I think were Stanley will play this week. They've got gone ree Stanley kicked a couple of goals and was apparently very good in the VFL, So I think we're about to see the end of that SDK rock experiment for now, and he'll probably play on Jacob van Roy and maybe this week.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, that wouldn't be great.
And he's I think he's broke even skinning up to a round one hundred, so he could actually lose money.
It's he'll probably lose ten k at least this week.
Yeah, for a mid process, it's not exactly what they're supposed to be doing, you know. Question from Scout is there a world which you could justify fading Bailey Smith? So this is kind of getting to what you're saying that you've kind of committed to having one trade used on him means you can't get Marriage and Humphrey or potentially you know, either of them. In this case, would you potentially leave Bailey Smith and grab the two one or two of those.
I think Bailey Smith is the higher priority because he all signs at this stage appointed him being a top eight forward. I'm in the same boat as to him. I don't have him. I'm bringing him in this week. That might cost me the chance to bring in Marriage
or Humphrey. But I think at this stage the priority is cash flow and it is to you know, make sure you're not missing the guys that are going like a Bailey Smith, I think is the one guy in this category that looks like he's going to be in the very top part of his position and he's super cheap and you need to jump on. And That's where I'm landing at the moment, And maybe in twenty four hours I've changed my mind, but that I think at this stage you need you know, marriage and Humfrey should
be a lower priority than these rookies. And you know the Bailey Smith, I mean, you.
Know, the way we play the game. We want to make cash so we can trade up to get keepers. And if you can just get Smith now, who is a keeper.
I think, yeah, exactly.
Yeah, he still can't kick, but he was still scoring
a hell of a lot of points. Like if it hadn't been for I think too late free kicks against and a drop mark in the center when that game was really close against Brisbane which cost him about ten or fifteen points, he probably would have tonned again on the weekend, which I think he went about ten percent by foot, Yeah, which that game probably suited him in a way because unless you were Dane's orco just about everyone went at about ten percent by foot, which meant
that he's scoring maybe leveled out, but yeah, it just looks like I must have and he's been a really painful watch the first couple of weeks not having him, especially after I took him out about twenty minutes before. He's one forty eight and round one, So definitely got a remedy that this week.
Question you touched on this team, and its certainly something I'm weighing up this week too. This is from Jimmy wondering if Marius is a consistent, viable option trying to get another mid rookie locks and my trades aren't all spelt spent on rookie. So you know, I'm sort of tossing up if I want marriage, I want Humphrey. Potentially, what am I doing with Jay's on Francis? If I had to pick, probably need to get both of Marius and Bis or could you get.
One and let the other one go?
No, you need both. I think I think you need both unless Mares drops back to the sub which I don't see happening. He was so good against he.
Was about their only good player. I was sitting and going, who is who is that? I don't recognize who that is? Oh, it's a second game. But that's cutting us up. That checks out. I mean, he won't play us and Don every week. Part of me is trying to justify that he can pass him because that makes me feel better about my trade plans. But I think he's going to be one of the better rookies we get at that bargain base of prices. To him, said you kind of I have to have him. You have to have bias.
Is there a world you could not get bias if you've got Look, I've only got three rookies in defense anyway, And now suddenly trainer and rider primos I did that.
And then remember that the flex exists, and I'm like, well, I kind of I can sit one of them, there can't.
I damn, Yep, you're right, Sorry l sorry al.
If I was only getting one, i'd get buis of the two, I'd be more prepared to fade Maraus.
I mean, Swan's have a few players coming back, but we did not early that Mills was now a fair way off. So yeah, and I mean yeah, I mean he was a sub only two weeks ago, so you think, is he guaranteed best twenty two But he's been pretty good in his way.
Well I think what he had one point three points per minute as sub and then he won them the game against Fremantle, so I'd say his job security is reasonably safe. Yeah. You go through the port team though, like I don't. I don't think it'll be Maraas this week, but in a couple of weeks time he could easily be sub again too. But it is going to come
back in so someone's got to drop out. Maybe it's Berry that goes to sub this week, in Coppran drops out of the team, but yeah, there's definitely going to be a possibility in a few weeks time. If Maraas has one quiet game, but he goes back to Subbury, he goes back to the sandful hopefully he's made a bit of cash by then.
Though, Yeah, I do agree with that, and I think if you if you have to pass on what it is like, Rice is the one you need and Marius is the one he would pass on.
Because the game for playing behind the ball now and that's where By splays.
So mature Asia footy factory.
I should say Maray is though, Like, I don't buy into the talk that him and Butters like or Butters is going to eat into his scoring too much. Yeah, Butters is going to score well, but Maris didn't have a center bounce against Essendon, so he's not going to get His role is not going to change significantly because Zach Butter's his back. So if you're worried, if you're trying to use Butters as your justification for not picking him, I don't think that's the right reason to leave him out.
I think they played Maray's wing and pushed Jase berg On into which.
Was yeah great.
Yeah, jays Bergen's DPP went up by about fifty percent. Yeah for death because he played yes, solely as a defender against they played very well.
All right, We've been getting to some other questions mix asking about Humphrey as well. He's asking his horn France, his top six forward. Yeah, I know it's borderline. I mean, he's around the mark.
Other day, but there's a few other forwards that we think you're pretty good. So well, this leads into the DPP discussion. So Christian Petrarca is sitting at about thirty six point five percent at the moment. So if Christian Patrakal was to get forward status becomes a must have instantly, Sydney had to buy on the weekend. So Chad Warner is still above thirty five percent as well. We'll watch with interest where he plays against North Melbourne this week.
But if those two become forwards and then yeah, we're thinking Bailey Smith's going to be around that mark, and then a couple of Nick Martin's potentially in that mix too. Although we had to check because I've never seen this before, but he's a defender that's played more than thirty five percent in the forward line and the midfield so far this year. So TPP, he could be a unicorn. He could be he could be our first triple position player,
but that's not going to happen. You can only have two positions, so I think he gets whichever one is higher of the two out of ford and midfield. If that still ends up being the case, but it's gonna be some really good players to the full line. Like I've gone from thinking Horn France is a lock to be top three to maybe top eight, top ten.
Were thinking, you think lock bet away going to go away.
The gay in McCrae one hundred averaging hundred and twenty gave Daniel just you know, we're sort of not really paying much attention to him because everyone's got him, but he just rolls out every week in scores one hundred and ten.
So there's three spots taken.
Yeah, they said that. I was watching that North Melbourne game on the weekend against Saturday and on Sunday, and I think the Fox commentator said no, sorry, I was listening on radio and the radio commentator said Caleb Daniels had the worst kicking Dave's life. And then I checked and then I checked the scores and he was on about one hundred and tenths, so like he's just a walk up triple figure just about most weeks, isn't he.
So it's going to be really competitive, And yeah, Horn Francis has gone from like I said, top two, top three guarantee to question mark if he's in sort of the top eight after the first few weeks. Yeah, he's going to bounce back. It's just a matter of win and.
Then hopefully by that time he's averaging.
You know, he's like forty fifth or something now, so we have to get past a lot of guys. So I think there's a difference between him and someone like Harry Sheezel, who we're just I think we're confident that
he will end up in that top six. Maybe you're not a clear number one like we thought at the stage of a year, But yeah, would be very reluctant to trade him, whereas one Francis maybe, I mean, like, I don't think keeping him is a terrible idea, but I think you could you could maybe do something with that trade and end up ahead. Nichols asked the question about how do we get Rail into our teams must
have player. I'm not sure if he quite must have, but I'm very tempted after last year, you know, blew my team up completely.
Well, would you do it to yourself again?
Jeezuz look good so far.
He's at number one averaging mid so far and the mid premos are not doing much. So yeah, like Gold Coast draw the next few weeks. You mentioned Adelaide, this week's not great, but then they've Richmond I think in North in the next few as well, maybe Ports.
So don't you do this every year?
Year?
He came out and scored like four tons in a row, and don I think he got injured when he was flying last year? After eight rounds he was the number one eight or nine rounds, he was the number one player in super coach, And I think logically, like you made the right call. Oh, they're playing two games in Darwin.
He already has about twelve tackles a game, like he's going to have so much contested all up there, and then he sees and just fell Apart from that point, so, I don't know whether the only thing I can possibly think is that because he plays such a physical game that he gets to a certain point of the season
where he has to regress a bit. But he looks like a different player this year, and I think he looks like to the eye, a little bit leaner than he maybe he's been in previous seasons as well, and that has enabled him to play like slightly more outside as well as still being a beast on the which I can see why people are keen, but yeah, i'd be I'd be weary based on like the history as well.
I think he's a good trade in, but I think you don't blow your team up to get him in. I think if you're starting to pull stuff apart and you're trading out cheese or or you'd you know, I don't think he should be blowing it all up to get him in. He'll be good. I really like him. Five fifty k's the cheap is still be for a long time. You don't desperately need him. There will be other.
Cheaper there's good midfield bargain's coming. Yeah, an upgrade season, So I don't think, yeah, you're desperately need to make that move.
Yeah, we've got three people questioned about Elder You and you know we spoke before that Elder us on the watch list as someone who might drop off him price. People were asking if they should trade him. No, absolutely not going Elder You to Rowl is a waste of trade when people will be looking to trade elder you in in a couple of weeks.
I hate that. And then only when the inevitable bounce back happens, it only hurts more knowing that you had him in your team four weeks, four weeks before you post one hundred and fifty, which you know is going to happen.
Turn another trade to get him back.
Yeah, and and paid more than you traded him out for.
Yeah, we saw him last year. He had a slump, he bounced back and was fantastic on that run home by did Hime. It'll hurt, It sucks, but.
Yeah, there's a lot of mouse to feed, but he's going to he'll start averaging one hundred and ten at some stage.
Benny asking Petrack at Petrack, at Petrack, should I trade to a Rowl or a Sinclair? Should I hold? Will I get forward Dbph, will Simon Goodwin and play track as a midfielder. He's getting very frustrated, which I am too.
I'm at Patrakorno. He's every think he's about ninety, but he had ninety eight round one, then a couple of sort of eighties, very high at forward time last week I'm not sure Simon Goodwin does know really what the answer is there for Melbourne at the moment in the midfield or the forward line, so.
Very hard to predict.
But the prospect of him getting forward status, I don't think we can trade him, can we, Tim?
I think you've got to hold down until at least well it's pre round six they kick in, so you've only got to look at gather round I think, gather end round five and have a look until then way up if you gets DPP and then you can make a call either way. But I know you asked me earlier in the week whether I thought you should trade Horn Francis or Petraca, and at that stage my answer was Petraca because I thought, who's out of those two, who's going to be top six, top eight in their position?
And I didn't think Petraca was going to get close in the midfield. But yeah, a whole different story now we know he's above thirty five percent threshold for forward status, so yeah, I'll definitely be holding onto Petraca and reassessing in a few weeks time.
I think the D's draw actually in round seven or eight or something. They have West Coast and Richmond back to back. So yeah, if we hold on till then we should get some reward. And that's similar for Max Gorn Anthony. How's this for question? Should you trade out both Gorn and Cherry Anthony asking no.
I have a lot of body you would you then set and forget say it? With the stop trading the US?
Who would you even trade them?
Yeah?
I don't know.
I don't know.
Unless one was read makes the money, unless one was flex And then you can get to you'd have any free sure like you could go to Essen's got the buye this week. I was going to say to Zach merrit off the buye, but you go to one of the Sydney guys, can't You're coming off thereby or Nick Decos potentially this week coming off his buy Yeah, no, you just I still hate it though he's especially Gorne.
There's been a bit of talk about it, but he's yeah, they've got they've got you along this week, You've got Essendon the week after, who are tougher to play against the rucks Frio who aren't a super easy if Darcy's back, But then it opens up with Richmond West Coast Hawthorne, Brisbane, Sydney like it opens right up.
I flagged trading Gorne a few weeks ago, and I think it had to be after round one, so so like a lot of us got him purely for the free hit that he had against Lockie Keith yep, and then Lockie Keith won GWS the game, and Gorne went from about one hundred and forty two hundred and twenty nine really late in the game, only just got that
borderline captaincy score, which was disappointing. I think if you're going to split his value had to be then now he's lost about fifty k, you're already cashing him in at a loss, and he's got Sam de Conning or Ree Stanley or Mark Blitzav's this week, so you've just got to hope this is the week it bounces back and Melbourne starts playing decent footy. But yeah, their midfield's been all at sea the first few weeks, so I think Maxcorn's too good a player to continue to put
out eighty five to one hundred scores every week. But yeah, it's going to be a frustrating ride, and people like me that pulled their team apart to get him in for round one. Are sort of really suffering now showing through in my rank, because yeah, I committed to him and Shecheesel and locking Eel, thinking especially that you needed gone and locking Theil for the early runs. And it's been very painful first few weeks.
Well, I said to El earlier this week, the biggest problems in my team this year D one Harry Cheesel and one Locky Neil and F one Jason R. Roan. Yes, yes, they're the ones that had caused me the most grief and very frustrating.
I don't know why you trade Cherry either, Like he was Jack Darling at a fair bit of rockwork, but that was only because Cherry was a bit backed up on the weekend. They weren't sure how bad his injury was. And he already said she's pine play this week.
Yep, exactly. Mick Randall also asking about Cheese and Callahan. We've covered Cheese or Callahan.
Callahan's got West Coast this week. No way you trade him this week. He could come out and put one hundred and fifty on West Coast.
I reckon with Callahan. You're there until the bye now, just you're invested.
He's not unless unless he gets that spike score again, Like he's probably not going to make as much of a profit as people had hoped because Conn and Ash went to him on the weekend, and there's the possibility that he also cops Marcus Windhagen next week. But I wouldn't want to trade him out this week because he could go absolutely astronomical.
H if you brought him in. It shouldn't have been for that cash spark. It should have been for points throughout the first half of the season. Or some people think he'd be a keeper, but yeah, I.
Think there's a chance, you know, he ends up.
As so we did. We did flag this b wap last week. He said Callahan tags and then we said Kotra would go to bailey Dale and that happened as well. When I say we, I mean last week.
So I mean the tags is something we really had.
My team's crap, but my advice where.
There's just so many of them this earlier in the year.
Normally you know, they don't start really cranking up to around the middle of the year, but just you know, Callahan gets two good games and then I think he had a couple of good touches early in the game last week, and Zamach was like, man.
He was about thirty or thirty five a quarter a time. Yeah, and scored twenty for the rest of the game. So and now had Hawthorne. Hawthorne obviously coming back and stealing all the points didn't help there either.
God, this is so Mick. I've got nearly five hundred K in the kiddy. This Mick plays a different game to the rest of us.
But people who don't know he's one about basketballs he plays very differently to just about anyone we know.
So if we're keeping all those players, he's got five hundred CAD again, and spend on whoever he likes.
Yeah, just trade Ben Patton to Nick Dakos and spend your money that way.
Cam asking Tim tuk Miller a chance to get DPP as well.
Potentially, I thought he was going to be close to thirty five percent than he is, So he's hovering about twenty five percent at the moment. So it's more his role is kind of starting around the midfield, maybe a bit of wing time, and then pushing forward, which is why he's kicking more goals and he had in previous season. So I think he's a chance mid year. I don't think he's going to make the pre round six DPPs.
He would need to almost play exclusively forward in the next two rounds to get there, which if Damien Hardwick ause listening, please do that. But yeah, more more sort of for that that mid year edition of DPPs. I think for two can hopefully continues to play a bit more forward, but yeah, it might. Maybe it'll come down to where Sam Flanders ends up playing because he was
really eased back on the weekend. So if he goes into midfield a little bit more, hopefully it's two's time for super coaches anyway that he eats into instead of maybe Bailey Humphreys and they.
Obviously have that one fewer game because of the buye How many games do you need? Because it struck me with Zavie Lindsay, someone we thought would get defense DPP. But if he's missing the next couple.
So it's three three for the first batch, so Lindsay's played three games. Yeah, so he could sneak in.
Yeah, Okay, that's good today.
All right, one more question to finish off, Pats Luke asking were talking about all his forwards who might be top six. Is Joyce Simpkin a viable option this week? He's everaging over.
Yeah, he's been one of the best performing forward woods so far this season. I was I looked pretty closely at him to start the year, decided against going there. Yeah, he's playing in the midfield, he's playing well. I think he's a Bible option Checkie Bars. He's got that really
nasty first batch of buys. But if you want to trade out Jason Horn Francis and you're committed to it, and you don't trust the two cheaper guys, and you've got Baily Smith already, then Simpkin would be the guy I trade him too.
Yeah, No, I don't mind him.
I just worry there's too many mouths to feed and no players as good as he's been in the first three round. There's better players in that midfield, Like Chesel was not going to average eighty for the whole year, So there's there's going to come a stage where Sheesell
and Simpkins averages flip. I think, and even if simpkin average is ninety like that, there's just only so many points to go around in a team that realistically is probably gonna win what maximum eight games maybe, so that obviously is going to affect their their super coach scoring as well.
George Woodloll might only be a week or so well, and that as well.
Yeah, the ward Law factor, and well, there's there's plenty of good kids. They're probably They're probably going to want to put Pino Sullivan in there at some stage. So yeah, I think he started well, but I wouldn't be buying Simpkin.
Yeah on Finasalvan quickly before we finish off wheel trading him.
I don't know, well, it's going to end up depending what I do. Like I've played around with so many options, and I've tried to add mid status to Jayden Short so I can get rid of him instead of some of the others, and unfortunately he continues to be deaf only in my side. So I think Sam Deconning I'm definitely going to get rid of because yeah, I'm just willing to concede that he's a bust. But Phino Sullivan like he's going to pop at some stage. But I
feel like it's going to be really slow burn. And We've been really privileged so far this year that a lot of rookies are making cash quickly and super Coach has gone from being a game where sort of cash is king. I like to say now that sort of quick cash is king and the quickie can upgrade your
Side'd like to race to get premiums into your side. Now, it's not I'm going to sit until the midyear buys and I'm going to have my team completed by round fifteen, like the best coaches are completing their team by round ten, round eleven. So having someone like Pino Sullivan that I think made just under ten k on the weekend like
that just doesn't fly anymore. Really, So yeah, getting choked up just the thought of trading I think we can pretty safely get rid of him if you have to do this week, and unless Nevert sub again, Like I'd be happier to keep someone like Nevitt that probably has the highest scoring him than Fino Sullivan that has the role, but we haven't seen the scoring potentially out of yet.
Yeah, and your thoughts just quickly patch on that.
But also does make me wonder about Xavier Lindsay, the most traded out player this week. No, I don't really want to get rid of him because we know he can score really well. But if he's going to miss a couple of weeks, it's that you know it's going to take him a while, and now he's got that low score and his system hate it.
Yeah, or am I just justifying it to myself?
I see it and as somebody who traded out status for that reason that I just wanted to keep the cash rolling and wasn't sure what it was going to look like when he got back. All of that still appliers to Lindsay, but it's also we've had some rice for changes now, and I think Lindsay's like one that we can bank on later on in the season. We want rookies that will be coming through progressively. He just moves back in the chain. We've already locked him in.
I would be trading out if you started a bo Allen that's not playing, or you've got Lucas Camparalli or Phinosullivan or someone that's just yeah, someone else, I'd be looking to trade out. And on the Phino Sullivan, don't think he's a must trade out. Don't think he's someone you have to try and to keep it all costs. I think it's if it suits what you're trying to do that, Trod and ten k could be far more useful than you know, a Lucas Camprilei sitting on the bench.
But you want to try and move on the rookies that aren't generating cash first, with Lindsay being I think the exception.
Wish old statist. Now Joey card Well's out post.
Bar four to six weeks.
Status would be a really other thing.
We haven't really even mentioned that touch on the Bombers then Hawthorn this week obviously have the boys the last week of best at an't scoring until we get through to those meat. So we've got a run of ten or so weeks and we're going back to best twenty two. So when you're making all these moves, maybe just have a think about what your team's going to look like next week when we don't get to drop off four
or five really low rookie scores. You know, you lose one with best twenty two, which is great this year, something we haven't had before and obviously with flex there, but yeah, you're going to have to accept quite a few of those scores.
That we've been Yeah, well it's like a trade will Day this week, who's been frustrating apart from one quarter against GWS where he's scored about eighty points. But then I look at my team next week and don't want to field Elijah Hewitt mate, not particularly so. Yeah, the other things you've got definitely got a way up this week before you make your moves.
And in three weeks I'd probably rather have Lindsay in my midfield than Christian Rays.
But I think that's also why, like and I've said earlier, people should be boosting this week, and if you can, you can grab Humphrey and Marrick because you'd be happy fielding both. Yeah, and if they're the reason that you can push a rookie off field, I think they could be really good for that period of best twenty twos and then you can weigh up what you do with them sort of post that going into the midyear bias.
Should he use a boost again? If you've already used on how many boosts? This is a question from me to the panel. How many I'm looking at us this week? Yeah, it feels too early to be using two boosts, but is it.
I don't think you'd want to be out of boost by around six. It'd be good to have a couple still, but yeah, I think it's just so important. This is the time to get your team right, especially the rookies and the cash cows. And if you use an extra boost and can turn a guy who's not making much money, like if you know Sullivan who's not playing into a Maraus or a Bis or Ryan Marritch and you know your one hundred and fifty k a head in a month, I think that's a boost well used.
Yeah, I think I'm looking at using my second this week, which for me is which for me is conservative. So normally I would have been three by this point. So
I think if you're on your second, you're okay. Three. Yeah, you're probably going to be in a bit of strife in a few weeks time when when all these good options are coming up and people are you going sort of two up, one down or one one up, two down to try and fit as many premiums into their team as possible, and you're already scraping the barrel having no boost spice at around six round seven.
Lovely, Well, now that I've got permission to use a boost, can can we wrap up so we can go?
We better wrap it up there, I mean, I feel like we say this every year, and every week it's like this week, I'll use a boost, I'll get all these bookies and everything right, and then and then I'll down, yeah exactly, won't use the trade for a few weeks, and then next week comes around and we'll see what happens. But thanks everybody for tuning in, Thanks Patch and Tim for jumping on again. And yeah, keep an eye on those DPP numbers. We've actually got every single player.
In the league.
You can look up there deep you know, time in position, We're all over the ground. So yeah, that's you can spend plenty of time digging into that.
But if you thought Dane's orco was good, what about Cory Mobilio from Champion Data. It's sent a table three this week asolutely made by week.
And plenty more content of course coming away, including the live team show on Thursday night. We'll talk through all the ins and outs and late captain tips there as well, so tune in for that. Until then, good luck with your trades and we'll talk soon.