What I Bet - Wednesday May 20th

Griffin Warner talks betting for Wednesday.

Griffin Warner returns with a loaded May 20 betting card on What I Bet, opening with the Europa League final between SC Freiburg and Aston Villa before moving through the NHL playoffs and a deep Major League Baseball slate. The soccer breakdown focuses on why a neutral site final in Istanbul could play tighter than the market expects, with SC Freiburg carrying underdog value and Aston Villa entering as the more talented favorite. Griffin explains why finals are often less about style and more about survival, clean sheets and avoiding the one mistake that decides a trophy. That points him toward the under two and a quarter, with Freiburg plus three quarters also drawing interest because a low scoring match naturally improves the underdog case. The show then shifts to the NHL, where the Vegas Golden Knights visit the Colorado Avalanche as a sizable road underdog. Colorado is respected as the stronger team, but Griffin sees a path for Vegas if the Golden Knights can slow the game down, defend with discipline and stay out of the penalty box. The market has moved toward the over, but Griffin leans the other way and would be especially interested in an under six and a half if it appears. From there, the episode moves into baseball, where Griffin works through the full MLB board. He leans Phillies behind Aaron Nola against Andrew Abbott and the Reds, understands the Twins price with Joe Ryan against Mike Burrows and a thin Astros lineup, sees runs and possible Rockies underdog value at Coors Field with Jack Leiter facing Kyle Freeland, and likes the Diamondbacks and over angle with Merrill Kelly against Tyler Mahle. He finds the White Sox interesting as a road underdog against the Mariners, especially with Seattle struggling at the plate and Cal Raleigh on the injured list. The most important baseball handicap comes in Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins, where Chris Sale is a large road favorite against Jackson Junk. Griffin does not want to lay the big price with Atlanta, but he respects Sale, gives Junk more credit than the market may and does not trust Miami to produce much offense. That makes under seven and a half the cleanest betting angle and ultimately the official What I Bet best bet. Other MLB thoughts include Washington as a home underdog against the Mets, caution on Toronto against the Yankees because of the Blue Jays bullpen, a Cubs lean against Milwaukee at a cheap price, Boston value with Connelly Early against Michael Wacha and the Royals, St. Louis behind Michael McGreevey against Pittsburgh, an over look in Dodgers vs Padres with Shohei Ohtani involved, and the Angels as an underdog against the Athletics with Aaron Civale facing Jack Kochanowicz. The episode closes with the promo code ERA20 for 20 percent off anything at pregame.com through May 31, then lands on Braves Marlins under seven and a half as the best bet for Wednesday.

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