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[SPEAKER_05]: And this is another edition of the spy-talk podcast, and we've got a real special show for our listeners today with two prominent writers about what's going on inside Iran, a big flash point right now, a lot of uncertainty, and a lot of apprehension.
[SPEAKER_05]: Our guests are Jason Rosario, and the Washington Post has had his own unique experience with the Iranian regime, having been imprisoned by it for over a year, and Human Masha, Iranian-American writer and contributor to NBC News, [SPEAKER_05]: welcome to Spy Talk. [SPEAKER_05]: Jason, I want to start with you. [SPEAKER_05]: You had a very powerful column in the post yesterday. [SPEAKER_05]: The headline I've waited for this electrifying moment in Iran for 10 years.
[SPEAKER_05]: Tell us why you feel that way and also there's been quite a bit of head spinning news since you wrote [SPEAKER_03]: I appreciate Michael, without going into a lot of detail as everyone knows, we don't always write our own headlines. [SPEAKER_03]: And I hope people actually read the call because it's tempered with a little bit of, not just skepticism, but anxiety, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: I do think that the resilience and bravery of Iranians is something to be applauded and [SPEAKER_03]: achieve the destiny that many of them have long hoped for at some point but there are also a lot of different ways that not only the United States but other allies could get in the way of progress and Iran and I think we've witnessed that time and again.
[SPEAKER_03]: Just in the last hour, so for the first time in over a week, we've been able to communicate with relatives in Iran, but that was only because someone who was a friend of a friend, was able to connect to Starlink and Ola Patelophone, to call a landline of a relative who, you know, after... [SPEAKER_03]: much waiting actually picked up the phone and said, we're okay. [SPEAKER_03]: All things considered.
[SPEAKER_03]: But you know, it's a very trying situation and the reality is, I mean, you know, I think the people of Iran have not enjoyed a lot of good friends over the years, certainly not in their own government, not in the US government, clearly not in the Israeli government, and not too many other [SPEAKER_05]: So less than 48 hours ago, the president was the president of the United States.
[SPEAKER_05]: Donald Trump was threatening to [SPEAKER_05]: attack Iran if it started if it continued to execute demonstrators in the estimates now are there over 2,500. [SPEAKER_05]: Trump then says yesterday, late yesterday, he's been informed that the executions have stopped and that the planned execution of one of the protesters had been put off. [SPEAKER_05]: And then a Senator Lindsey Graham right after that says, no, they haven't stopped at all.
[SPEAKER_05]: And the Iranian regime is continuing its crackdown. [SPEAKER_05]: Tell us what, uh, starting with you, whom I bring you in, tell us what you are hearing, who's right right now, Donald Trump or Lindsey Graham, or do we just not know? [SPEAKER_05]: And what are your expectations for over the next few days of what's gonna happen? [SPEAKER_04]: Well, to the best of our knowledge, Donald Trump is correct, and not Lindsey Graham. [SPEAKER_04]: Well, he's half correct.
[SPEAKER_04]: Executions did not start. [SPEAKER_04]: Crackdown depends on what you mean by crackdown. [SPEAKER_04]: Very few people are going out on the street. [SPEAKER_04]: And anybody who does venture out on the street, as far as I know, after dark, which is basically 435 o'clock, is sort of encouraged by the heavy, heavy security presence on the streets. [SPEAKER_04]: to go back home.
[SPEAKER_04]: So there are on every corner of every major intersection, cops, riot police, motorcycle police, things that Jason, I have both seen inside Iran after the 2009 crackdown on the green movement, similar to that perhaps even more intense than it was then. [SPEAKER_04]: So that is the crackdown. [SPEAKER_04]: Yes, the crackdown exists. [SPEAKER_04]: There's no internet as Jason pointed out. [SPEAKER_04]: That exists. [SPEAKER_04]: No phone connection to the outside world.
[SPEAKER_04]: That exists. [SPEAKER_04]: So that's the crackdown. [SPEAKER_04]: And if that's what Lindsey Graham means. [SPEAKER_04]: Yes, executions. [SPEAKER_04]: No, he's wrong about that. [SPEAKER_04]: Donald Trump is correct. [SPEAKER_04]: I think I just literally five minutes ago saw that he's taking credit. [SPEAKER_04]: Donald Trump has taken credit for saving 800 people. [SPEAKER_04]: Which is exactly what he wants to do, is to say that I stopped the executions.
[SPEAKER_04]: I stopped the crackdown and I stopped 800 people from dying. [SPEAKER_04]: Wherever he got that number from, I have no idea.
[SPEAKER_00]: Can I ask a, can I just ask a question when you said where he got that number from I have no idea I'm curious where we're getting any of our information from communications are broken down there's a geopolitical sort of shuffle going on in terms of Iran it's sort of be a lot of a gray zone in many ways, how do you think people who are getting any information what's what what is it.
[SPEAKER_04]: The government itself has admitted to a little over 2,000 deaths throughout the country. [SPEAKER_04]: That's the Iranian government. [SPEAKER_04]: Now, we don't generally like to believe everything the government says. [SPEAKER_04]: Either them or Hamas in Gaza. [SPEAKER_04]: So you can take that with a grain of salt.
[SPEAKER_04]: Estimates from human rights organizations, videos that people have seen of morgs of hospitals, estimates go from that 2,500 number, which is sort of the number that I think Donald Trump has [SPEAKER_04]: mentioned, I believe I'm could be wrong, maybe I know he started at it like something like 500, but I think he may have said 2500 as well. [SPEAKER_04]: As high as 12,000, a few people have said as high as 20,000.
[SPEAKER_04]: But the numbers are, that's what you're saying is correct. [SPEAKER_04]: As Jason pointed out that our videos coming out through Starlink, there are witnesses, right now there are flights available, one of my cousins, kids just left yesterday, left Iran and landed in London. [SPEAKER_04]: And so these are the eyewitnesses that we know and some of them are bringing videos out with them.
[SPEAKER_04]: They're obviously allowing people to take their phones with them, that have these videos on them. [SPEAKER_04]: So based on all these estimates, it's still, it's not very clear what those numbers are. [SPEAKER_04]: And again, I'll let Jason jump in here too to see if he has any specific people that have contacted him.
[SPEAKER_03]: No, I think any time you're dealing with situation like this, it is a lot of speculation and I think that's helpful for the authorities in the country where, you know,
[SPEAKER_03]: Potential atrocity is taking place because they will how do you know right you're not here and we've set shut down communication I think it's going to be a very long time before we know the extent of this and I'm not going to say that the you know the number is not relevant because certainly you know every assassinated executed murder person is is beyond relevant but
[SPEAKER_03]: I think the idea is that we talked about the 2009 protests a bit, you know, at that time, the protests were mostly peaceful and, you know, the state did unleash violence and 100, something protesters were killed in those protests back then.
[SPEAKER_03]: We saw more protesters [SPEAKER_03]: 19, and then, of course, during the woman's life, freedom movement in 2022, many more protesters, and it sounds as though, even by their official count, they're acknowledging a higher number than any of those. [SPEAKER_03]: But I think... [SPEAKER_03]: the willingness to unleash that kind of force onto people shows that they don't have other methods of responding to the society.
[SPEAKER_03]: The demands that people have over a whole swath of issues, whether [SPEAKER_03]: repressive nature of life in the country, environmental degradation. [SPEAKER_03]: All of these things, they don't have credible responses to them. [SPEAKER_03]: They've shown themselves incapable in recent years to respond to very natural demands from people.
[SPEAKER_03]: And I think that's a large part of why we've come to this [SPEAKER_05]: to this head of the two factors you mentioned, Jason, the economic distress for the Iranian people and the inability to get basic goods at reasonable prices on the one hand. [SPEAKER_05]: And then also the repressive nature of the regime. [SPEAKER_05]: How how do you judge [SPEAKER_05]: among them, which is the driving factor for these protests and when I'd like you to weigh in as well.
[SPEAKER_03]: Look, I think it's a common culmination of many factors, right? [SPEAKER_03]: And in a place where civil society has not been allowed to operate freely ever, but has been more and more and more restricted over time. [SPEAKER_03]: And at the same time, everybody has one of these and is able to clearly, most of the time, except during this crackdown, see all of the ways that they're missing out on modern life.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's very frustrating for people and it's an incredibly educated population, a connected population, as Human just said, flights are still coming and going. [SPEAKER_03]: Everybody has relatives that live in the US [SPEAKER_03]: The brain drain is a real phenomenon, anybody who can in recent years has left. [SPEAKER_03]: And so I think it's not one factor, it's the combination of things and a restless society who doesn't see any hope for a brighter future.
[SPEAKER_03]: I applaud that bravery, I would like to see more forethought into what they would like to see come next and hear about that and see if that's feasible. [SPEAKER_03]: One last thing that I want to say is that this idea of freedom and democracy is very different for people who've never experienced it before. [SPEAKER_03]: To strengthen Iranian spending power in the early 2000s up until about 2011, when U.S. sanctions really started to kick in, was almost enough.
[SPEAKER_03]: People could travel fairly freely, they could take trips to Thailand or Turkey or Dubai, and you know, turn down the pressure a little bit. [SPEAKER_03]: None of that stuff is available to people anymore. [SPEAKER_03]: There are no options of pressure release inside the country. [SPEAKER_03]: I am people can't afford to go outside the country. [SPEAKER_03]: And so, you know, it's a tender box. [SPEAKER_04]: Absolutely. [SPEAKER_04]: I mean, Jason's right.
[SPEAKER_04]: I mean, people are fed up really. [SPEAKER_04]: They're their wits end. [SPEAKER_04]: That's the best way to describe it. [SPEAKER_04]: I mean, everyone from, and they, you know, we talk about the Bazaar merchants. [SPEAKER_04]: The whole this latest round of protests at the end of December started in the Bazaar because people could no longer afford to sell goods. [SPEAKER_04]: Because if you sold your goods today, tomorrow would be 20% more expensive.
[SPEAKER_04]: How are you going to re-stock? [SPEAKER_04]: Especially people who deal with imports, such as mobile phones. [SPEAKER_04]: It actually started in the mobile phone sellers protest. [SPEAKER_04]: And which really couldn't spark this thing among the people who said, Wait a sec, I can't afford me anymore. [SPEAKER_04]: I can't afford to buy, I can't even afford to take a taxi anymore. [SPEAKER_04]: All the kinds of, I need three jobs just to make a living.
[SPEAKER_04]: And as Jason pointed out, a sort of dead end society, where there's just no hope whatsoever. [SPEAKER_04]: The sanctions the Donald Trump has put on Iran. [SPEAKER_04]: his part of the equation, of course, sanctions mean things, the reallist of the Iranian currency is in free fall, almost at Zimbabwe levels, and I'm talking about Zimbabwe back in the 70s and 80s, not now. [SPEAKER_04]: And there's no, nobody can really see what the end game is.
[SPEAKER_04]: The president, Pezishkiyon, has come out and said it before even these protests. [SPEAKER_04]: My hands are tied. [SPEAKER_04]: There's nothing I can do. [SPEAKER_04]: If anybody has a good idea, please tell me. [SPEAKER_04]: I mean, if you're a Feneronian citizen, what do you say when your president says, I have no idea what to do? [SPEAKER_04]: So they came up, they did actually after the protests, the first, they were initially peaceful protests, aren't it?
[SPEAKER_04]: People were like, we need real change, which is why you, for the, not the first time, but in large numbers, you saw people saying, wait a second, this system doesn't work anymore.
[SPEAKER_04]: So that's where you hear, you know, regime change ideas of where people start talking about Palavi because these are the, you know, most visible of the, of the, of the exiled opposition leaders because people really don't see a solution because they don't believe that Supreme Leader will allow anyone [SPEAKER_04]: to make a deal with Donald Trump, with the US under Donald Trump.
[SPEAKER_04]: And if they don't make a deal with the US under Donald Trump, then it's either war is coming or the economy is going to get worse. [SPEAKER_04]: So what is your solution then as a person, as a person, you go out and say, please do something. [SPEAKER_04]: And that's something is either change the regime or have the regime change itself. [SPEAKER_04]: And neither of those are happening right now. [SPEAKER_04]: And so I think this Tinder box, the Jason says, it's there.
[SPEAKER_04]: It's going to, I mean, they've clearly put down this round of, this crisis is sort of over in terms of the streets. [SPEAKER_04]: But the crisis is certainly not, by no means over in terms of the people's dissatisfaction, you know, unhappiness, misery in many ways.
[SPEAKER_04]: And we have to see, in the predictions are very hard, but certainly Donald Trump appears to have been satisfied initially last night anyway with the Iran and is sort of willing to not interfere at this point, which I'm sure disappoints a lot of Iranians who want regime change.
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, I think one thing that we should point out is that the velocity and spread of protests in Iran has been quickening and growing in the last decade or so, especially since these 2017 protests, and then you had the woman life freedom protests in 2022, the
[SPEAKER_03]: cities, towns, villages where that saw protests has never been as much as they are, and there's also, you know, at certain points, protests would happen in, you know, in Balucha's not, or in Kurdistan, or is more regionalized. [SPEAKER_03]: At this point, there's no ethnic, religious, linguistic, socio-economic divides. [SPEAKER_03]: Everybody's disaffected, dissatisfied.
[SPEAKER_03]: And who wants to say, Donald Trump wants to say, [SPEAKER_03]: you know, I helped put these down, but you know, it's only a matter of days, weeks or months before people come out again. [SPEAKER_03]: And, you know, the system still doesn't have an answer for any of these demands. [SPEAKER_03]: And they're not going to be able to come up with one. [SPEAKER_03]: As he said, when the president of the country says, I don't know, you got ideas.
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, I think that there's a lot of people with a lot of ideas and most of them include, get the hell out of here and let somebody else do it. [SPEAKER_00]: So I just want to contextualize this in terms of the United States and just get your guys take on a couple of things. [SPEAKER_00]: One is the JCPOA, the nuclear deal, and Trump pulling out of it, and how that [SPEAKER_00]: Does that have any impact on this or is just a totally separate thing?
[SPEAKER_00]: Because you sort of, you know, in terms of the economic fallout, etc. [SPEAKER_00]: That's the first thing. [SPEAKER_00]: And the second thing in terms of past but recent, more recent than the past, US policy is, you know, Trump has been sort of both sides is it here. [SPEAKER_00]: Well, we might attack. [SPEAKER_00]: We might not attack. [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, now we're satisfied. [SPEAKER_00]: Now we're dissatisfied.
[SPEAKER_00]: One of the things that happened in the Soleimani attack was that the Trump administration writ large made the determination that an attack on killing Soleimani would not get any kind of backlash right away from Iran, right? [SPEAKER_00]: Remember the answer was, we'll take our time to respond the way we want and they turned out to be right about that, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: And I wonder how much of that kind of attitude on the United States part might still be in play here or, and I've just curious about how both those factors from our recent past might play into this or just totally off the table now. [SPEAKER_04]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_04]: I mean, the Trump getting out of the JCPOA was sort of a bit of a shock to the system in Iran. [SPEAKER_04]: The JCPOA was quite popular because it opened up the economy.
[SPEAKER_04]: Sanctions were slowly being lifted. [SPEAKER_04]: It wasn't universally welcomed by everyone, but generally speaking was popular certainly among the merchant class. [SPEAKER_04]: And Iran really didn't have an answer. [SPEAKER_04]: for the JCPOA withdrawal and so Iran didn't really have an answer for what to do once the sanctions were reimposed on Iran.
[SPEAKER_04]: And it was 2018 when Donald Trump withdrew and for two years they tried Iran tried to get the European statistic to the sanctions and then Iran started probably in hindsight mistakenly ramping up its nuclear program. [SPEAKER_04]: And then Joe Biden got elected and Joe Biden decided he was going to go back to the JCPOA. [SPEAKER_04]: And then of course he thinks the Iran didn't react very well to Joe Biden going back to the JCPA.
[SPEAKER_04]: So there were a lot of missed opportunities to try to get the new clear deal back. [SPEAKER_04]: on track and it didn't happen either with Joe Biden or with Donald Trump in the second term where he also said he wanted to make a new deal that was better than it. [SPEAKER_04]: So to say that it had no effect on U.S. Iran relations or no effect on Iran's economy would be wrong.
[SPEAKER_04]: But there's also a huge number of reasons why Iranian government mismanaged its own economy, why the structure of the economy is such that Iran couldn't [SPEAKER_04]: It can't take care of its people unless it has some radical changes economically. [SPEAKER_04]: So it's a combination of the two that have caused the economic misery in Iran, the combination of the sanctions, which clearly have hurt the economy and hurt ordinary people and the mismanagement of the economy.
[SPEAKER_04]: In terms of Soleimani and yes, he was Donald Trump was right that Iran wasn't going to react in the way that some people thought he was going to react. [SPEAKER_04]: He was right and Iran was being very cautious, doesn't mean that they won't throw caution to the win this time. [SPEAKER_04]: If the U.S. decides to attack, I think that this time, they really have a lot more to lose.
[SPEAKER_04]: Then, yes, their most famous general, yes, their most accomplished general, but which they lost. [SPEAKER_04]: better fit in terms of their own view of what you could accomplish. [SPEAKER_04]: But in terms of what that right now an attack is is an existential for Iran and I think they would throw everything they have and I think that's been communicated and was communicated by Pali Buff the Speaker of Parliament a couple of days ago.
[SPEAKER_04]: And I've sure Donald Trump heard that. [SPEAKER_04]: And throwing everything they have against American interest and Israel is potentially quite damaging, which is why we've also seen the Saudis. [SPEAKER_04]: Is that a credible threat? [SPEAKER_04]: Yes. [SPEAKER_04]: Well, the fact that they were able to get through the iron dome with some of their missiles, the last time in kill 37 is really citizens, showed the Israelis that it's credible on some level.
[SPEAKER_04]: And everyone in the region, according to what we're reading, has been very worried about this. [SPEAKER_04]: The Turks have publicly urged, you know, how am the U.S. not to attack? [SPEAKER_04]: Qatar, now we've heard the Qatar, the UAE, and Saudis have urged privately.
[SPEAKER_04]: Donald Trump to not attack Iran because they're worried about the fallout because now everyone believes You know, you have a Iran is basically a cornered a cornered animal and what's it gonna do if it's attacked The Iranian the top leadership of the Iran are not going anywhere They're not gonna seek refuge in Moscow.
[SPEAKER_04]: They're not gonna go to they don't they can't go to Damascus a place that they could have gone if they were [SPEAKER_04]: If there was going to be a war and a regime change, they're going to stick it out and sticking it out means they're going to throw everything they have against. [SPEAKER_04]: I believe in the case of an attack.
[SPEAKER_05]: So last fall, we had on this podcast, Scott Anderson to talk about his really gripping book King of Kings about the fall of the shot in 1979.
[SPEAKER_05]: And I am struck at the parallels with what we're seeing today and what we saw then as he recounted the demonstrations against the shot, started spreading throughout [SPEAKER_05]: the country in 1978, to more and more cities, becoming more and more combustible, and to the point where the shop was truly on his last legs, but the difference between then and now seems to me, then there was a singular, organized opposition represented by the Iotola community that
[SPEAKER_05]: you know signals the final days of the shot. [SPEAKER_05]: Here it is not clear. [SPEAKER_05]: There is a single opposition leader who can bring the country together. [SPEAKER_05]: The best we have is Reza Palavi, the son of the shot, and it's totally unclear just how much support [SPEAKER_05]: he has.
[SPEAKER_05]: I'd be really interested in hearing from both of you on the parallels and the differences and in particular whether Palavi is the de facto alternative at this point or whether there's some other configuration that could replace the regime. [SPEAKER_03]: Jason, why don't you start? [SPEAKER_03]: woman knows that I'm a diplomatic person and don't want this marriage anybody so I won't.
[SPEAKER_03]: But I think when a resume is son of the post dictator and there's not that much else on the resume, it begs the question, you know, what has he led and how would he presume to lead a country of Iran's size? [SPEAKER_03]: You know, the ability to lead and charisma and all these sorts of things are genetic and passed down by generations and he's the son of a monarch.
[SPEAKER_03]: Remember that the monarchy that his father, [SPEAKER_03]: rule over or you know symbolized was invented by his grandfather and I think in the history of Iran it's probably the shortest live tenure of leadership besides the Islamic Republic right like it's 54 years. [SPEAKER_03]: if you think of it.
[SPEAKER_05]: I was always puzzled they used to call it like the you know the 10,000 year old 25 year old in fact the grandfather who created the monarchy had no hereditary tie is not too sirens the great. [SPEAKER_03]: And then again I'm not trying to disparage [SPEAKER_03]: or cast doubt on anybody, but I think it just demands a lot more inquiry, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: And I know that there is a support structure around him in diaspora and they've created some [SPEAKER_03]: plans transition plans that they talk about. [SPEAKER_03]: I also know that, you know, he has a lot of followers on social media that do not display democratic tendencies at all and how they, you know, go about anybody who questions them.
[SPEAKER_03]: And they would say one of those are regime agents that [SPEAKER_03]: is that incredibly talented and powerful Iranian diaspora, which wields massive amounts of capital and influence in this country, just not politically, figure out how to come together and constructively plan for a future of Iran that would be a... [SPEAKER_03]: connected society to the rest of the world. [SPEAKER_03]: That's only going to happen if Iranians living abroad play a role in them.
[SPEAKER_03]: And so far we haven't even been able to kind of decide on what the right flag is for a future free Iran. [SPEAKER_03]: And that seems to me to indicate that one we might be missing the moment or two that we're not built for. [SPEAKER_04]: I agree. [SPEAKER_04]: I mean, Jason, you're, are being very diplomatic about the show because, and are the pretender, shock. [SPEAKER_04]: And because some of his closest advisors have threatened people like Jason and my, both Jason and myself.
[SPEAKER_04]: And have called us regime stuages, and in some cases threatened us with violence. [SPEAKER_04]: And these are not just people, random people on social media. [SPEAKER_04]: These are some of his co-sadvisors, people that he associates with.
[SPEAKER_04]: And other people have said, look, if you want to be a leader, you have to disassociate yourself from these people who are, you know, just call, who are, who are, who are, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who, who,
[SPEAKER_04]: tearing people apart on the internet on social media and all that. [SPEAKER_04]: And Jason's right, I mean, I wrote about this a couple of days ago for the intercept about Palavi and his chances. [SPEAKER_04]: I really don't see any kind of evidence that he has created any kind of network inside Iran. [SPEAKER_04]: Yes, his name is very well-known. [SPEAKER_04]: Yes, he can say, come out, please, and march on Thursday night, and people did.
[SPEAKER_04]: But when he said, come out and or go out on strike to the workers in Iran, they didn't. [SPEAKER_04]: When he said, in June of last year after the 12th day war, he said, I have, I'm going to recruit people to defect from the security forces, the IRGC, the Basis, the security forces in Iran, and then subsequently claimed that he had 50,000 defectors ready to go. [SPEAKER_04]: at the right time. [SPEAKER_04]: Well, the right time was a week ago and not a single one defected.
[SPEAKER_04]: So, the evidence is not there for him to have any kind of real organization. [SPEAKER_04]: Remember, as you pointed out, Michael Homeini had every single local mosque in the entire country, as his base. [SPEAKER_04]: Every single one, he was sitting in Paris first in Najaf and then in Paris, but he could disseminate his views [SPEAKER_04]: in Iran. [SPEAKER_04]: And there's plenty of mosques.
[SPEAKER_04]: Imagine being able to get to every church in America and every synagogue in America. [SPEAKER_04]: That was the power that Homania had that you mentioned. [SPEAKER_04]: And that doesn't exist right now.
[SPEAKER_04]: And the only other... [SPEAKER_04]: regime opponent is Mariam Rajabi, a president elect of the national, I can't even remember the whatever it's called, but it's the M.E.K. [SPEAKER_04]: who are despised in Iran and the reason you never hear her name, you never hear the M.E.K. [SPEAKER_04]: chant in any of these protests, 10,000, 100,000 people protest is because they are reviled for having taken Saddam Hussein's side in the Iran Iraq War.
[SPEAKER_04]: They're an exile in Albania, right? [SPEAKER_04]: They have, they do have foot soldiers in Iran who have committed terrorist acts, have taken out various scientists, assassinated people, but it's a small group of people. [SPEAKER_04]: The other thing the Jason mentioned, which is a very valid point, is about all the ethnic minorities.
[SPEAKER_04]: And there is a concern among Iranians inside Iran with some of these ethnic minorities who are arms, such as the laws from Loroastun and the Kurds especially, who have armed separatist movements, that someone weak like Reza Palavir could unleash those forces and would not be able to control the cohesiveness of the Iranian nation. [SPEAKER_03]: This is, I think that profusiveness before we move on from that. [SPEAKER_03]: I mean, this for most of us is the biggest concern, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: Like the territorial integrity of the community. [SPEAKER_04]: Absolutely. [SPEAKER_03]: Has to stay intact. [SPEAKER_03]: And when you look at it, there are a handful of, you know, [SPEAKER_03]: ethnic groups bordering countries with large populations of those same ethnic groups. [SPEAKER_03]: In my experience of being a Iranian origin and meeting people of Iranian origin and in Iran, [SPEAKER_03]: has always trumped their Kurdishness or Jewishness or Muslimness.
[SPEAKER_03]: This is something to protect, you know, not just for Iran, but I think for the world, right? [SPEAKER_03]: And I think probably, being that Yahoo sees a partition to Iran as advantageous to them, I don't think that [SPEAKER_03]: I think a stable intact Iran with a free economy and open society would be in the world in the region's interest.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I want to follow up on just something he said before, which I don't want to lose, which is you talked about the diaspora and the potential of the diaspora to sort of communicate, get together and help rebuild whatever is coming next in Iran. [SPEAKER_03]: No, unfortunately, and if you look at some of the biggest tech companies in the world at or near the top, there are Iranians in all of them, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: The fact that we can't even get these people back online means that very powerful and connected people, [SPEAKER_03]: in this country who are Iranian, are not using their influence effectively, right? [SPEAKER_03]: CEO of Uber, you know, has born and Iran and, you know, has talked to sometimes about his, you know, desire to, to help.
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, I think he's probably in a pretty good position to, you know, pick up the phone and talk to people in Washington, whether they're in Congress or in the White House or the NSC, so that we've got something called direct to cellular internet service that exists now. [SPEAKER_03]: access this, but it requires flipping a switch and to flip that switch, Congress would have to legislate doing that for Iran, or the White House would have to do an executive order.
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm not sure that anybody in Congress or the White House knows about this, right? [SPEAKER_03]: So, you know, [SPEAKER_03]: the messaging, the organization, and really, I mean, you know, we should be, or somewhere between a million and two million people living in this country with the highest educated highest income earning non-European immigrant population. [SPEAKER_03]: We should have some political influence. [SPEAKER_03]: We don't. [SPEAKER_03]: That's our fault.
[SPEAKER_04]: That's absolutely correct. [SPEAKER_04]: That's absolutely correct. [SPEAKER_04]: And you know, the one organization that was started by someone to be that kind of umbrella organization has become something that every most many Iranians in the diaspora consider to be pro-regite, and that's an IAC, and whether they are not as well as who they are. [SPEAKER_04]: nationally Iranian-American council. [SPEAKER_04]: And they have two branches.
[SPEAKER_04]: One is to be a lobbying group, which and their registered as lobbyists at Congress. [SPEAKER_04]: And the other is to just be a council for Iranian-Americans to kind of come together. [SPEAKER_04]: And they're supportive of the regime. [SPEAKER_04]: Well, people accuse them of being supportive of the regime, because they've been anti-war, anti-sanctions, anti-attacks on Iran. [SPEAKER_03]: Oh, and against you? [SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, who had said, Jamal Abdius's name.
[SPEAKER_04]: It's based in Washington before it was true to Parsley, who a lot of people again consider to be a regime stooch. [SPEAKER_04]: So, Iranian, what's happened in the Iranian diaspora, I think Jason was absolutely right about this, [SPEAKER_04]: A lot of the people who are very powerful and I'm, by the way, in tech and banking. [SPEAKER_04]: There's a lot of very, very powerful bankers. [SPEAKER_04]: There's people at the oil business.
[SPEAKER_04]: Very, very wealthy billionaires, Iranians. [SPEAKER_04]: And many of them have looked at the diaspora politically and said, I don't want no part of that. [SPEAKER_04]: That's not something I want to be involved with. [SPEAKER_04]: Because if you look at the, [SPEAKER_04]: vitriol that's spread, that passed out between pro-monarchy, anti-Islam, pro-Islam, pro-Rigim, anti-Rigim, in social media or even in essays or or opads.
[SPEAKER_04]: It's just like, [SPEAKER_04]: They don't want to be involved. [SPEAKER_04]: You know, people have careers, they have businesses, they have things going on, their kids are American. [SPEAKER_04]: It's like, okay, there's no unity to be seen.
[SPEAKER_04]: And so the ones who are the most powerful Iranians, the most visible, the most high profile Iranians, generally, unless they're political or unless, like Jason, a writer, myself, a writer, [SPEAKER_04]: are just like, you know, leave me out of this. [SPEAKER_04]: You know, he mentioned Darakus Roshahi, who's the CEO of Uber, who lived in Iran, I think until he was 11, and grew up in some in New York, in Westchester County, New York.
[SPEAKER_04]: You know, he has occasionally said things, and apparently he met with the Iranian President, this last time the Iranian President was here. [SPEAKER_04]: The Pazishkyan was here in September for the UN. [SPEAKER_04]: But realistically, he said his biggest contribution has been if Iran changes if the regime changes will be the first to invest in Iran. [SPEAKER_04]: Of course, he'll have to go up against snap, which is their version of Uber inside Iran.
[SPEAKER_05]: By the way, you mentioned the M.E.K. [SPEAKER_05]: before they were, of course, for years considered a terrorist group by the United States. [SPEAKER_05]: I definitely got that lifted up, but I was scrolling through X the other day and I came across a post from of all people Rudy Giuliani yeah attacking raise a pilave said he's got no support he has no claim of legitimacy to leave the Iranian people and I said that's [SPEAKER_05]: seemingly odd and then I remembered.
[SPEAKER_05]: Why? [SPEAKER_05]: He has been long time on the payroll. [SPEAKER_05]: Yes, the M.E. [SPEAKER_03]: K. I won the Chum Bolton and others. [SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, and and others. [SPEAKER_05]: I think Louis free the former FBI director was on it. [SPEAKER_05]: I mean, [SPEAKER_05]: they managed to recruit quite a few folks into their cause.
[SPEAKER_05]: Jason, can you remind us why it is you were imprisoned by the regime in 2016 and why they kept you locked up for a year and a half before I let you go? [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_03]: I'm glad to be on with Human, because you know, he's one of the individuals [SPEAKER_03]: But my own interpretation is that I was taken by the Revolutionary Guard to disrupt the nuclear negotiations.
[SPEAKER_03]: And you were reporting for the Washington Post at the time, I've been living and working in Iran for five years, reporting for the Washington Post with full accreditation for two years.
[SPEAKER_03]: coincidentally or you know worth mentioning that literally the morning of the day that I was arrested I was given a one year extension of my press credentials as who on well knows you know there are competing security services inside Iran the ones that oversee press credentials or the in you know link to the Ministry of Intelligence which is a professional intelligence service
[SPEAKER_03]: comparatively, but my wife and I were abducted at gun point in our home by the Revolutionary Guard Corps Intelligence Service, which, you know, are terrorists. [SPEAKER_03]: I mean, you know, the Revolutionary Guard Corps writ large has been designated as a terror organization by the United States.
[SPEAKER_03]: I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have, I have,
[SPEAKER_03]: argue against that kind of blanket designation, all blanket designations, but the could force and the intelligence service, you know, there's a very strong case to be made that these are our terrorists. [SPEAKER_03]: Anyway, they took me hostage, held me for a year and a half, and I think it did disrupt the negotiations.
[SPEAKER_03]: It certainly [SPEAKER_03]: You know, it was part of the implementation of the JCPOA in 2016 was the release of myself and several other Americans and several Iranian Americans being held in US prisons on sanctions violations. [SPEAKER_03]: So I tell people that, you know, as far as I'm concerned, the JCPOA was a wash. [SPEAKER_04]: Michael, and Jason, you know, and as he mentioned, I was covered with the JCPOA talks with Ann Curry and on that with NBC News.
[SPEAKER_04]: And so we were virtually, virtually every single round of negotiations, some were doing documentaries and all that.
[SPEAKER_04]: And so because of that and access to the Iranian team who are on the reform side, [SPEAKER_04]: I would, as Jason and his brother and his mother, no, would press the Iranian team, especially the Foreign Minister, to, you know, what is going on, Jason's brother would come to some of these rounds of negotiations, especially in Vienna with very long drawn out negotiations.
[SPEAKER_04]: And I'd see him and we go and talk and and and the foreign minister was like yes, I'm doing everything I can and but you know clearly the foreign minister did not have the power to get Jason released and as we have seen since then and I know Jason knows this as well. [SPEAKER_04]: the competing power centers do not like the far former farm ministers, to the point where today there was a rumor that some of them put out MPs in parliament that he had been arrested.
[SPEAKER_04]: He and Rouhani had been arrested. [SPEAKER_04]: Now [SPEAKER_04]: I doubt that that's true. [SPEAKER_04]: I haven't been able to confirm that, but he is particularly despised for having done the JCPA for having defended people like Siamak Namazi another long time prisoner. [SPEAKER_04]: I'll be running an American prisoner.
[SPEAKER_04]: defending Jason Rizay on saying, you know, this is ridiculous, this is, and you know, you could even argue in his case that even if you even if you thought Jason deserves to be in prison, even if you just let see how much deserve to be in prison, it's harming your odds image. [SPEAKER_04]: So on that very cynical view, you should be releasing them. [SPEAKER_04]: But he tried everything I know, and unfortunately was unsuccessful, and fortunately, Jason did get out.
[SPEAKER_05]: Not that I want to draw any comparisons, but given we were just talking about Jason's arrest by the Iranian regime this week, another Washington Post journalist had our home rated by the FBI, who seized her devices as part of a
[SPEAKER_05]: I had leak investigations, so I just want to put that out there in terms of when we're talking about freedom of press, but I'd like to wrap up here with two questions for both of you and number one is there a role for the United States to play here either overtly or covertly. [SPEAKER_05]: And number two, this is January 2026, by the end of the year, will the regime still be in power? [SPEAKER_05]: Come on, you go first. [SPEAKER_04]: Well, I don't know about a role.
[SPEAKER_04]: I don't know what role it can play short of just, I mean, you know, the internet is probably the place it can be the most effective in helping.
[SPEAKER_04]: If it wants to, if Trump administration really does want [SPEAKER_04]: the people in Iran to communicate and be able to organize, that would be literally the only way of America could be effective without actually hurting the cause of people who are hopefully hoping for change, whether they're hoping for change internally or whether for hoping for a complete regime change.
[SPEAKER_04]: And I think we don't know how many want a complete regime change and how many people want a serious change inside Iran that allows things to do. [SPEAKER_04]: So that's [SPEAKER_04]: Secondly, what was the second part I'm sorry for going to say a year from now or by the end of the year? [SPEAKER_04]: By the end of the year, do I know the regime still be empowered? [SPEAKER_04]: That's a impossible thing to gauge.
[SPEAKER_04]: I think if short of war, unless there's a war, unless there is a decapitation of the regime, I think the answer is probably yes, but I also, that it will be around. [SPEAKER_04]: Unless, you know, I don't see a regime collapse at this point. [SPEAKER_04]: I don't see a defection or cracks in the security services. [SPEAKER_04]: We haven't seen it yet. [SPEAKER_04]: I don't think it'll be there, unless, again, unless there's external forces.
[SPEAKER_04]: I think that my answer would have to be, yes, the regime will be there and will be cracking down on future protests that probably will erupt. [SPEAKER_04]: Jason, same two questions. [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I'll take the second one first. [SPEAKER_03]: I don't think that it's wise to make predictions about these sorts of things if they are still in power. [SPEAKER_03]: I think they'll be even weaker than they are today, but also probably even more brutally repressive, right?
[SPEAKER_03]: And we see how that goes in places like Syria [SPEAKER_03]: And others, so, you know, I'm just hopeful that bloodshed can be limited and that people's dreams and aspirations or the country starts moving in that direction rather than away from it.
[SPEAKER_03]: Second, [SPEAKER_03]: how the U.S. could help, I think the internet is clearly the piece of the puzzle where we could be doing something right now, we could have been doing something for years, we claim to have been doing things for years and we haven't been doing, right? [SPEAKER_03]: So that's one one place to help. [SPEAKER_00]: When you say the internet, what do you mean using it how?
[SPEAKER_03]: Ensuring that Iranians are able to [SPEAKER_05]: Right, for the ability, you're not talking about cyber attacks shutting down the electric grim.
[SPEAKER_03]: No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no,
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, historian, but if I remember correctly, you know, before the fall of the Soviet Union, there was a lot of dialogue with not only dissidents inside the Soviet Union, but leadership of the Soviet Union. [SPEAKER_03]: It was a foregone conclusion that that system was not long for the world, and you have to find the people within these systems who understand that [SPEAKER_03]: their current situation is no longer tentable and that stability is preferable to chaos.
[SPEAKER_03]: Gorbachev was not a Jeffersonian Democrat, but he understood that the Soviet Union wasn't going to last.
[SPEAKER_03]: And there are those people inside the Iranian system right now and I think we need to be communicating with them [SPEAKER_03]: I'm not saying make deals with them or prolong their power, but understand better what's happening there because I do think that to whom I was point, there haven't been defections yet and there might not be, but not having clarity about what's going on inside this country is no longer
[SPEAKER_04]: I agree and I would I'll finally say I would not not be surprised if there are members of the Trump administration foreign policy team who are communicating with some of the people inside Iran who might be like that. [SPEAKER_04]: We know the Steve Woodcoff has Iranian foreign ministers. [SPEAKER_04]: They text each other.
[SPEAKER_04]: They've admitted it on the outside, but I also think that the as a last point that the people it's exactly what Jason says there are those people inside Iran who real who are pragmatic and do want to see some change and do want to help the people
[SPEAKER_04]: and are perhaps, for a point of the better word, the reformist, they know that even though the crackdown has been successful or can be successful for the near future, that long-term, it's not tenable, and those people, I think, need to be encouraged to help. [SPEAKER_04]: Because there's no other, [SPEAKER_04]: Right now. [SPEAKER_05]: Well, clearly the Trump administration is communicating with somebody because Trump said we've been told. [SPEAKER_05]: Right.
[SPEAKER_04]: Yes, right. [SPEAKER_04]: Exactly. [SPEAKER_05]: Executions for stuff. [SPEAKER_05]: So somebody from inside is telling him something. [SPEAKER_05]: But look, I want to thank both of you for really illuminating. [SPEAKER_05]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_05]: Thank you discussion about a very murky subject right now. [SPEAKER_05]: And this has been enormously helpful for us and hopefully our listeners and [SPEAKER_05]: and we'll want to stay in touch with both of you as, uh, events proceed.
[SPEAKER_05]: So thanks a lot for joining us. [SPEAKER_02]: And that's it for this week's by-talk. [SPEAKER_02]: Be sure to check out our complete podcast, our Kylan App or wherever you get your podcast. [SPEAKER_02]: And if you haven't already, do check out thespytalk.co news site on Substack, where we offer steady diet of scopes and the original analyses from the intersection of intelligence, foreign policy, and military operations.
[SPEAKER_02]: Just Google Spy Talk and you'll quickly find your way there. [SPEAKER_02]: This edition of the SpyTalk podcast was smoothly produced as always by Cani and expertly edited by Molly Hawkey for MSW Media. [SPEAKER_02]: That's it. [SPEAKER_02]: See you around. [SPEAKER_02]: I'm Jeff Stein. [SPEAKER_02]: Am I going to go to the golf? [SPEAKER_00]: I'm Karen Greenberg. [SPEAKER_02]: Thanks for listening.
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