[SPEAKER_00]: M-S-S-W-M-D-A-S-W-M-D-A-S-W-M-D-A-S-W-M-D-A-S-W-M-D-A-S-W-M-D-A-S-W-M-D-S-W-M-D-S-W-M-D-S-W-M-D-S-W-M-D-S-W-M-D-S-W-M-D-S-W-M-D-S-W-M-D-S-W-M-D-S-W-M-D-S-W-M-D-S-W-M-D-S-W-M-D-S-W-M-D-S-W-M-D-S-W-M-D-S-W-M-D-S-W-M-D-S-W-M-S [SPEAKER_02]: And this is another edition of the Spy Talk podcast. [SPEAKER_02]: This week, like everybody else, we're talking about special operations in Venezuela and their ramifications beyond the region.
[SPEAKER_02]: And we are bringing in some special expertise to the discussion, of course, first with Louis Rueida. [SPEAKER_02]: a former senior CIA intelligence officer who spent 28 years in the agency's clandestine service, which included three important assignments in Latin America. [SPEAKER_02]: He's also an expert in counterterrorism and counter narcotics.
[SPEAKER_02]: We're also pleased to have with us by talking to her being editor Peter Eisner, who over his long and distinguished journalism career reported from Venezuela, Panama, Mexico, and throughout Latin America for the associated press and news day. [SPEAKER_02]: In the 1980s, he was also the AP's bureau chief in Caracas. [SPEAKER_02]: So welcome, gentlemen.
[SPEAKER_02]: But let me start with you first, Trump told The New York Times, [SPEAKER_02]: that the U.S. is going to run Venezuela for maybe years. [SPEAKER_02]: How do you think that's going to go down with Venezuela? [SPEAKER_02]: And it's neighbors. [SPEAKER_04]: I don't think it's going to go down well. [SPEAKER_04]: You had to remember that Latin America Venezuela, Colombia, all the countries in the region have had a checkered history with United States.
[SPEAKER_04]: There is a view that the U.S. has always been mucking around in internal affairs, overthrowing governments, rigging elections, and nothing is going to go. [SPEAKER_04]: It's going to be looked at well by the Latin American audience. [SPEAKER_02]: So do you think that that outweighs Venezuelan relief that getting rid of at least the top of the Venezuelan government? [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, the regime is still in place. [SPEAKER_02]: It's very a mixed situation.
[SPEAKER_02]: Do you have any predictions on where this is going to go? [SPEAKER_02]: There are many power centers in Venezuela. [SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, that prediction is very hard. [SPEAKER_04]: Your point is well taken. [SPEAKER_04]: This is not regime change. [SPEAKER_04]: This is a palace coup.
[SPEAKER_04]: It looks like from the outside, I have no special insight into what happened, but it looks like Maduro was removed with the connivance of at least some elements of the Venezuelan government. [SPEAKER_04]: The regime is still in place. [SPEAKER_04]: One player and his wife are out. [SPEAKER_04]: But virtually everybody's in place, there has been no effort to change the government. [SPEAKER_04]: There is no effort to restore democracy.
[SPEAKER_04]: So the first thing I would say is we have not engaged in regime change. [SPEAKER_04]: It is probably an internal coup egg done by the U.S. and the U.S. provided the muscle. [SPEAKER_04]: You know, the U.S. [SPEAKER_04]: history of regime change and the the results there of have not been pretty. [SPEAKER_04]: In general, all our efforts to change governments and regimes have been successful in the changing. [SPEAKER_04]: And the aftermath has been a disaster.
[SPEAKER_04]: There's led to insurgencies, revolutions, dictatorships, [SPEAKER_04]: joy on the part of the event as well as that he's gone, but they're expecting changes. [SPEAKER_04]: And if you you're leaving the regime in place that has led to the mess they're in, they're not going to see much change. [SPEAKER_04]: And then there's, you know, this is this is sort of like a rock.
[SPEAKER_04]: We got rid of Saddam, [SPEAKER_04]: And then everybody expected, okay, let the good times roll and they did not and I don't know if the good times are going to go roll in Venezuela. [SPEAKER_01]: You know, along those lines, Luis, when I was watching Trump's press conference on Saturday and he said, we're going to run Venezuela.
[SPEAKER_01]: And all I could think of is when he said that was Iraq, you know, a experience which you are well familiar with having in addition to your counter narcotics expertise in Latin America, you were the head of the Iraq operations group for the CIA on the in the run up to the 2003 invasion. [SPEAKER_01]: And of course, you know, as you point out, the big question there was what happens the day after.
[SPEAKER_01]: What are the plans for running the country, who's leader, we've just deposed after we get rid of him. [SPEAKER_01]: And of course, in Iraq, it was a disaster. [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, did that parallel strike you as much as it did me when watching Trump's comments the other day? [SPEAKER_04]: It struck me from the beginning when I found out that the U.S. has removed Maduro. [SPEAKER_04]: We [SPEAKER_04]: we're never really good at either running the country or not running the country.
[SPEAKER_04]: I don't get a sense that we are running the country. [SPEAKER_04]: I get a sense that what we're doing is strong-arming the country, blackmailing the country, threatening the country to give us what we want without real concern as to what takes the place of [SPEAKER_04]: what exists now. [SPEAKER_02]: But the big difference between Baghdad and Karak as it seems to me is that we wiped out the Iraqi government essentially.
[SPEAKER_02]: Anyone who would have been a member of the bath party, we dismissed, we disbanded the army. [SPEAKER_02]: And I think they take away from that with Trump, people, I don't know how deeply they think about anything frankly. [SPEAKER_02]: But the difference is they've left the regime in place. [SPEAKER_02]: These people can make the trains run on time, so this big. [SPEAKER_02]: And we will just bend them to our will. [SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, they can't see the difference in Iraq.
[SPEAKER_04]: Yes, we eliminate the regime. [SPEAKER_04]: We outlawed the bath party. [SPEAKER_04]: We got rid of all the structures of power. [SPEAKER_04]: and there was nothing really to replace it. [SPEAKER_04]: And then as well, you do have something to replace it. [SPEAKER_04]: You have what we and the rest of the world consider a legitimately elected government, the Karina Machado people, and you have an opportunity to say, okay.
[SPEAKER_04]: The illegitimate government has gone, let's install a legitimate government that we can work through or with. [SPEAKER_04]: We haven't done that. [SPEAKER_04]: We seem to always choose the worst path possible. [SPEAKER_04]: Get rid of the guy, leave the dictatorship and power, and forget about anybody else. [SPEAKER_01]: Let's bring Peter Eisner into the discussion of a former Caracas bureau chief for the Associated Press.
[SPEAKER_01]: Peter, what is your sense of how the Venezuelan public is reacting to this and what happens next? [SPEAKER_03]: Okay, well, it obviously we're all in guessing mode here. [SPEAKER_03]: I can say a couple of things. [SPEAKER_03]: I, a couple of times have tuned in via this wonderful app I have to radio stations in Venezuela, just like flipping through 30, 40, 50 radio stations. [SPEAKER_03]: The majority of them are playing music as always.
[SPEAKER_03]: Some of the conversations that I've listened to has been obviously about the news.
[SPEAKER_03]: people talking about, speaking in favor of the inheritors of the Chavez revolution saying that the seizure was illegal and such haven't heard anything talking about democracy talking [SPEAKER_03]: some years back, while Chavez was in power, happened to be sitting in Havana, watching a TV program, coming from Caracas, where people were marching in tearful adoration of Chavez, and, you know, demonstration that looked beyond just something it was paid for.
[SPEAKER_03]: I think that the United States faces [SPEAKER_03]: a bunch of problems. [SPEAKER_03]: One is, there's lots of support for the Chavistas despite the failures that they've experienced under Maduro for the last 13 years. [SPEAKER_03]: And I think, [SPEAKER_03]: If I had to guess, I would agree with Louise that it's certainly a palace coup strong arm.
[SPEAKER_03]: And I think that there were people on the US side, probably the agency, and probably the military, saying that if we go too far here, we're gonna have chaos as we had in Iraq. [SPEAKER_03]: We'll do what the President wants. [SPEAKER_03]: but we're not going to decapitate this regime. [SPEAKER_03]: And I'm not sure at all it's going to work. [SPEAKER_03]: I mean, what's where I see it? [SPEAKER_01]: Do what the president wants other than getting access to Venezuela and oil.
[SPEAKER_01]: What is it? [SPEAKER_03]: The president, I don't even think they're getting access to Venezuela and oil per se. [SPEAKER_03]: I think they can get access to the, [SPEAKER_03]: oil that's being produced, which isn't very much, and stop it from going places they don't want it to go like Cuba especially. [SPEAKER_03]: but the whole idea of putting together a system where the United States is gonna just move in and start pumping oil and shipping it wherever they want.
[SPEAKER_03]: It's a fantasy. [SPEAKER_03]: It's as much of a fantasy as building battleships. [SPEAKER_03]: Ain't gonna happen. [SPEAKER_02]: It's a fantasy. [SPEAKER_02]: Why is it a fantasy, Peter? [SPEAKER_03]: Well, number one, [SPEAKER_03]: They're probably producing around 900,000 barrels a day of which 800,000 are available for shipment. [SPEAKER_03]: Maybe I've been doing some research. [SPEAKER_03]: Maybe 50 to 100,000 of that goes to Cuba.
[SPEAKER_03]: But the vast majority of this oil is so cold, let's not go too far into the weeds here, but it's important. [SPEAKER_03]: So cold, sour, heavy oil. [SPEAKER_03]: at deep discount for the international market. [SPEAKER_03]: It's not valuable oil until it gets refined by specialized refineries. [SPEAKER_03]: The United States could pay exon and conical [SPEAKER_03]: and Chevron is already in Cuba to do something with the existing oil, but it's a loser for US oil company.
[SPEAKER_03]: There's a glut on oil and the oil companies don't want to produce more oil to drop the price of oil more. [SPEAKER_01]: not only that, how do you protect them? [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you put a bunch of American oil workers into Venezuela, there's got to be security, there are threats, there are guerrilla groups, you know, on the Colombian border, as I understand it, the only interest short term.
[SPEAKER_03]: that their oil companies would get into and also support only supported by US taxpayer financing would be to go to the only place where they have a quicker ability to to hold in some oil, which is Lake Mara Cable, which is [SPEAKER_03]: It's obviously drilling in the lake. [SPEAKER_03]: The system is broken down. [SPEAKER_03]: They would have to read tool it. [SPEAKER_03]: They probably haven't even looked at it two or three years from now.
[SPEAKER_03]: They might be able to hold 50,000 to 100,000 barrels of oil a day out of there, which is lighter oil easy to sell on the market. [SPEAKER_03]: But again, again, it's a little, it's away from Caracas, maybe easier to defend, but it would involve US defense. [SPEAKER_03]: How's that going to work? [SPEAKER_03]: There's no US military presence in Venezuela right now. [SPEAKER_03]: And how's that going to go over if the United States starts sending in tens of thousands of troops?
[SPEAKER_03]: only to protect the oil, much less doing anything to protect the idea of democracy or democracy building. [SPEAKER_02]: I can't see Trump sending in 10,000 to two, but this is absolutely not. [SPEAKER_02]: Let's go back to this.
[SPEAKER_02]: You raise some interesting security questions, however, at least I want to ask you, if you were in charge of Venezuela operations now, given the current situation the way you see it, [SPEAKER_02]: like any other news consumer, you're not inside the agency anymore. [SPEAKER_02]: But from what you see, what would be your mission right now, your priorities and caracas?
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, we assume that you be making overtures to Venezuela and intelligence and security organs to try to subordinate in some way. [SPEAKER_02]: What's your priority? [SPEAKER_04]: I wouldn't say sub-born at this stage given that the U.S. government is supporting the existing regime. [SPEAKER_04]: The priority would be to making overtures to intelligence, to security, to the military. [SPEAKER_04]: to bring them into the U.S. sphere.
[SPEAKER_04]: We want to use them as four small suppliers, as you mentioned, providing security to well workers and that sort of thing. [SPEAKER_04]: You want them to come in and say, look, we'll do that for you. [SPEAKER_04]: You don't need to put boots on the ground. [SPEAKER_04]: We'll take care of it. [SPEAKER_04]: So you're trying to make the contacts. [SPEAKER_04]: You're providing them training. [SPEAKER_04]: You're weaning them away from the Cubans.
[SPEAKER_04]: And I'm bringing them into the U.S. sphere because that's what you need to prop up the government [SPEAKER_02]: And you say to them, as a, if you're a CIA case officer sent to Caracas today, and he goes to Officials in the Interior Ministry or Venezuelan intelligence directly and says, look, we can do this the easy way or the hard way if you're a lot of money changing hands [SPEAKER_04]: You don't you don't you don't want to do the hard way right away.
[SPEAKER_04]: You don't want to go in with threats. [SPEAKER_04]: You you you want to to win them over. [SPEAKER_04]: They understand what the hard way is. [SPEAKER_04]: You want to go in and say, here's what's the benefits for you. [SPEAKER_04]: Here's what you're going to get out of it. [SPEAKER_04]: Yes, money's going to it's going to change hands.
[SPEAKER_04]: We're going to want to win people over sometimes that takes money that takes acknowledging what their personal interests are, what their benefits are. [SPEAKER_04]: The threat's going to be overhanging and frankly, Trump is going to make plenty of threats to them. [SPEAKER_04]: Then they'll see that. [SPEAKER_04]: You don't have to go. [SPEAKER_04]: You want to go in as the good guy.
[SPEAKER_04]: So yeah, there'll be, there'll be offers of training, there'll be offers of financial support. [SPEAKER_01]: Please, let me ask you about Cuba because we've made multiple references now to [SPEAKER_01]: the administration scope, squeezing Cuba further, keeping the Venezuelan oil at a Cuban hands. [SPEAKER_01]: Rubio was long dreamed of getting rid of the communist regime in Cuba said if he was in a vana, they should be a little bit worried now.
[SPEAKER_01]: Now you are a Cuban-American. [SPEAKER_01]: Your father fought in the Bay of Pigs. [SPEAKER_01]: You joined the CIA in part because you shared the anti-communist views of many Cuban Americans. [SPEAKER_01]: As you look at what we are doing in Venezuela and the potential implications for Cuba. [SPEAKER_01]: I'd be really fascinated to hear your thoughts and whether you think this can be the start of an effort [SPEAKER_01]: get rid of the communist regime in Havana.
[SPEAKER_04]: Good question, and I'll, I'll, I'll preface it by saying that one of the issues with successful covert action or regime change is that it gives a US administration of a sense of, or we can do this everywhere, and we'll succeed. [SPEAKER_04]: And you saw that after the CIA coup and Iran and the 50s, and we went on to Guatemala, [SPEAKER_04]: we went on to Cuba, we went on to Chile, and one of the things that people have to understand is Cuba is not Venezuela.
[SPEAKER_04]: That is not going to be a dropped out of force in, remove somebody, and off we go. [SPEAKER_04]: The other side is that this administration is lucky in that Cuba, [SPEAKER_04]: And I don't I say this for the administration after the Cuban people is on the verge of collapse it is the worst it has been in a very long time and it won't take much [SPEAKER_04]: to push, cutting off that is well and oil leaves it pretty much with some Russian and Mexican petroleum.
[SPEAKER_04]: The situation is going to get bad. [SPEAKER_04]: I think the US has a better than even chance of toppling the Cuban government. [SPEAKER_04]: The problem is what comes afterwards and this is where we constantly fail. [SPEAKER_04]: We fall down. [SPEAKER_04]: You can't. [SPEAKER_04]: You can't go in and poke it drop something and then walk away because then you're left with chaos, something worse, you're going to get a bunch of people washing up on our shores.
[SPEAKER_04]: You got to go in. [SPEAKER_04]: and control what comes after. [SPEAKER_04]: You've got to ride the horse all the way through the situation. [SPEAKER_03]: Luis, I think we've got the same issue in Venezuela. [SPEAKER_03]: I keep thinking of, I think that we've got [SPEAKER_03]: It kind of reminds me, crazily, I could keep on thinking of this moment in national lampoon's vacation.
[SPEAKER_03]: When Cherry Chase is walking along at the Hoover Dam, and he says, oh, look, there's something leaking, and he just pulls out a little plug, and he goes walking along, and a couple hours later, the whole dam collapsed. [SPEAKER_03]: Look, Venezuela is practically failing. [SPEAKER_03]: It's a fail to, I mean, 25% of the country has left. [SPEAKER_03]: The concept of providing minimum amounts of food to the country.
[SPEAKER_03]: And you know, little packages of care packages is collapse and marries the world food program is providing, you know, a couple of million meals equivalent, maybe five, six million meals equivalent a day, but of the 30 million or people. [SPEAKER_03]: in the country, 80% are listed as being impoverished, and maybe half of them are food challenged and going toward starvation.
[SPEAKER_02]: And it's been reported today that the Venezuelan government is paying people out of its reserves as it's going to run out of cash sometime soon, so all those government workers [SPEAKER_01]: Luis, let me take you back to your comment a couple of minutes ago that the U.S. has a better than even chance of toppling the Cuban government. [SPEAKER_01]: What, how do you imagine that would happen?
[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, given your questions about the day after, and at the same time, all the, [SPEAKER_01]: problems with the Cuban government itself and its management of the Cuban economy. [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, would that be a good thing or a bad thing at this point in your view? [SPEAKER_04]: That's a good question. [SPEAKER_04]: I honestly don't know. [SPEAKER_04]: I mean, the Cuban people are, [SPEAKER_04]: are getting close to seeing Cuban star of the death.
[SPEAKER_04]: I mean, it's bad. [SPEAKER_04]: It's significantly bad. [SPEAKER_04]: So any positive change, any change in the government is going to be a positive thing. [SPEAKER_04]: The problem is we can't guarantee that it's not going to get worse. [SPEAKER_04]: I don't see the Cuban security apparatus collapsing as quickly as the Venezuela did or if they I don't even know if they collapse they just might have not done anything.
[SPEAKER_04]: There are there are too many people in the regime making money and having power to just give it up. [SPEAKER_04]: So, it would be a fight. [SPEAKER_02]: How do you see that unfolding? [SPEAKER_02]: Do you see popular uprisings in the streets? [SPEAKER_02]: It seems like the regime can handle that pretty easily?
[SPEAKER_02]: Do you see, especially considering Marco Rubio's obsession with Cuba, can you see CIA directing programs to reach out to Cuban officials who might be [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, we've got a totally different kind of regime running things now. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_02]: Can you can you imagine what career CIA people are thinking about Cuba and what to do? [SPEAKER_04]: Well, they're thinking everything.
[SPEAKER_04]: I mean, you know, it's one of the things when you work the agency. [SPEAKER_04]: You look at every possibility. [SPEAKER_04]: I think realistically, [SPEAKER_04]: our best expectation would be one to build a coalition in Latin America, which is not going to be extremely hard after Venezuela, but to build a coalition where there is pressure, for example, Mexico.
[SPEAKER_04]: either seizing oil, shipments to Cuba or putting significant conditions at the same time reaching out to the security elements in Cuba. [SPEAKER_04]: Sort of like I think the U.S. did in Venezuela and said, look, it's in your interest to get rid of this. [SPEAKER_04]: We'll take care of you. [SPEAKER_04]: You're not going to lose benefits, but you need to get the the upper structure out of there.
[SPEAKER_04]: And we'll go in and we'll help you, but you need to open up your economy, you need to do a certain a bunch of things. [SPEAKER_04]: And I think that's probably the best way in trying to force the situation to change, to come from inside, from the Cubans as opposed to being imposed by us on the outside.
[SPEAKER_04]: I think a military intervention, [SPEAKER_04]: is going to be a lot more difficult and violent than it was in Venezuela, and I don't think it's going to be as successful. [SPEAKER_04]: I think you have to harness the power of the Cuban people and the Cuban military, for example, to make that change. [SPEAKER_04]: Hmm, that's quite a task. [SPEAKER_04]: It is indeed. [SPEAKER_04]: Do what?
[SPEAKER_04]: You know, we used to tell people in the CIA if it was easy, they'd give it to the Boy Scouts, not us.
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm not sure if there's any, I mean, obviously, the military in the CIA have contingencies and war games on everything, but I don't think that there is, [SPEAKER_03]: any next day planning on and what is it called end state concept after the decision to pull out Maduro and wife and I do think that that it was very much in the interest of Rubio to let this happen to put the screws on Cuba.
[SPEAKER_03]: Cuba has [SPEAKER_03]: 60 years of getting by with near starvation, I've been there watching people go through the extreme lack of calories for themselves and feeding their kids with the poultry amount of food they have as they shrink and get hungry or an hungry.
[SPEAKER_03]: This would take [SPEAKER_03]: anything either in Venezuela and Cuba to really put through a fast change or anything that involves regime change or democracy building would not take place without American presence, which I don't think the United States, I don't think Republicans have a stomach for it. [SPEAKER_03]: That's it. [SPEAKER_03]: They're already showing that they're blocking China block Trump. [SPEAKER_03]: tens of thousands of troops would be involved.
[SPEAKER_03]: Either way, you'd have chaos in both places and it's going to go back down to the colon pal victim. [SPEAKER_03]: You break it, you've got to fix it. [SPEAKER_03]: It's just not going to work. [SPEAKER_03]: We're in trouble here and it's moving toward chaos and then as well as first and possibly with the screws and stuff of [SPEAKER_03]: on Cuba.
[SPEAKER_01]: I was just going to say, Peter, yes, the Cubans have been incredibly resilient over the decades in surviving the U.S. blockade and all the other sections we put on it. [SPEAKER_02]: And 20, I do many CIA schemes and many CIA schemes. [SPEAKER_01]: But I do think Louise is right that things really have gone downhill dramatically in the last few years.
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I was there a few [SPEAKER_01]: just how much worse life in Havana had become since I had been there like 10 years earlier. [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it was it was it was markedly different and that was and that was before obviously pressure that this administration is putting on it.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, whether that leads to [SPEAKER_03]: Both regimes are not your any power of of opposition this day to this hour apparently from the New York Times the Venezuelans are are out of you know being pretty heavy handed and going after any any sign of opposition doesn't look easy to me
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm on a switch gear is a little bit Peter because you did a good piece and spy talk the other day about the parallels between the seizure of Maduro and to put him on trial for drug trafficking and the U.S. invasion of Panama to seize Noriega and put him on trial for drug trafficking.
[SPEAKER_01]: um and uh there were some striking parallels I too covered the Noriega trial in Miami many years ago and got a real inside look at how these big drug trafficking cases are put together and uh it's often not very pretty.
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah that's what that's when you and I first met Mike as a matter [SPEAKER_03]: you guys are all we feel it I do think there are tremendous number of parallels in the way George H. W. Bush decided to go in and grab Norega and the way Trump went in and took Maduro [SPEAKER_03]: I would have to say that, yes, these were both thugs, no question about it. [SPEAKER_03]: I would say that Maduro was a more major league thug, because he had a bigger playing field.
[SPEAKER_03]: But in both cases, I walk away from saying that there is a level of ego and domestic interest that kind of overwhelms.
[SPEAKER_03]: Um, any desire to be capturing a heinous drug trafficker, um, in the case of, uh, of Norega, um, and it's not my thing, it's even, it's not me saying this, even, I recall, uh, very well, uh, General Werner that, the head of the Southern Command, uh, who is deposed because he objected to the invasion, said, this is, this is the, this is the Wimpfactor, George Bush,
[SPEAKER_03]: is going to invade Panama to prove that he can and I came away saying that despite everything made a lot of sense and I think here Trump is in many ways this is a bully boy action to do something that yeah this is [SPEAKER_03]: no love lost for Maduro either. [SPEAKER_03]: But what's really going on here? [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, he said in a New York Times interview, apparently the Times got a couple of hours with Trump in the Oval Office, which they're harrowing today.
[SPEAKER_02]: He went on about how Jimmy Carter failed with a desert that operation to free US hostages [SPEAKER_02]: and he went on about how Biden's screw up of the Kabul withdrawal. [SPEAKER_02]: And he's always comparing himself. [SPEAKER_02]: He's always leading with his ego. [SPEAKER_02]: And that seems to be the case here with Venezuela. [SPEAKER_02]: I've done something that no other president could do.
[SPEAKER_01]: Can I just go back to Noriega for a moment because my takeaway from covering that trial many years ago [SPEAKER_01]: is it really shows the sort of vagaries of drug trafficking and prosecutions because at the time, [SPEAKER_01]: There were two major Colombian cartels. [SPEAKER_01]: The Medine cartel and the Cali cartel. [SPEAKER_01]: And they were rivals, right?
[SPEAKER_01]: And Noriega had been dealing with the Medine cartel and many of the, many of the witnesses were convicted, Medine traffickers, like Carlos later, who got reduced [SPEAKER_01]: got all sorts of benefits, reduced sentences, I was astonished to read the other day that later, who was like one of the biggest drug traffickers of his era, controlled in Island in the Bahamas, is actually a free man to this day. [SPEAKER_01]: Thanks.
[SPEAKER_01]: In part, to his testimony, against Manuel and Maria Ga, but one of the crucial witnesses against him. [SPEAKER_01]: was a guy named Ricardo Balodnik who was actually an accountant for the rival Cali Cartel and before turning himself into testify against Noriega in the interest of the Cali Cartel, he got a $1.25 million bri from the Cali Cartel traffickers.
[SPEAKER_01]: So basically, we were using witnesses or a key witness produced by the rival drug cartel to get the Medine Cartel that Noriega was [SPEAKER_01]: You know, like I say, you can call that justice or you could call it something else I suppose. [SPEAKER_04]: Would you go out Louie?
[SPEAKER_04]: I call it standard U.S. policy, having worked in Latin America and doing counter-archotics, it is extremely common to use as one DA guy, quote, it half a loaf is better than none, and you'll use one trafficking organization's support to get rid of another. [SPEAKER_04]: And then you hope that you can then turn on the other one. [SPEAKER_02]: The definition of the self-looking ice cream quote. [SPEAKER_04]: It is.
[SPEAKER_04]: I was a Mexico and I would watch the US government work with [SPEAKER_04]: Mexican elements of Mexican law enforcement to get rid of cartels. [SPEAKER_04]: And all we were doing was eliminating the competition for the Mexican law enforcement to take over the drug trafficking. [SPEAKER_04]: You know, we got, we got a president pardoning the Honduran president for drug trafficking as we grab the Venezuelan president for drug trafficking.
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, I don't, it's got to have absolutely no impact on drug trafficking. [SPEAKER_04]: It'll help make their case. [SPEAKER_04]: And that's about all that they really care about. [SPEAKER_01]: Did you have a dealings with Noriega when he was a CIA asset?
[SPEAKER_01]: No. [UNKNOWN]: Okay. [SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, no. [SPEAKER_04]: It's a straightforward man, new people who dealt with them, and Noriega provided for the agency a lot of services, including during the the the contra period, the Central American Wars, stuff moved through Panama and provided support to the contras and other groups, Noriega provided a a good [SPEAKER_04]: off shore platform to look into Cuba to see what was going on.
[SPEAKER_04]: At the same time, he was cooperating with the Cubans. [SPEAKER_04]: You deal with what you get in the world of intelligence. [SPEAKER_04]: And the US government is fine with it as long as they get what they want and it's in their interests. [SPEAKER_04]: And when it's ceases to be in their interests, they'll turn on. [SPEAKER_04]: So the situation in [SPEAKER_01]: So it was with Narega.
[SPEAKER_03]: My friend Don Winters was the CIA station chief in Panama, Don passed away quite a long time ago. [SPEAKER_03]: And he appeared at the sentence reduction hearing for Narega after he was convicted on eight of 10 counts for 40 years. [SPEAKER_03]: And Don said to the judge, [SPEAKER_03]: General Norega should be released forth with because of the services he paid the United States. [SPEAKER_03]: We work, but that's what he said.
[SPEAKER_02]: And as you wrote yesterday for Spitalk Peter, we're likely to see a similar pattern with the prosecution of Magdoro with the US [SPEAKER_02]: shortening the sentences of imprisoned, then is well-in-drug dealers, etc. [SPEAKER_02]: etc. [SPEAKER_02]: to induce them to testify against Maduro. [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, the United States to successfully prosecute Maduro is going to have to put more people on the stand than just the EEA agents and FBI agents.
[SPEAKER_03]: They're going to have to put [SPEAKER_03]: convicted and acknowledged drug dealers to say what they know about this heinous drug dealer maduro even if it's hearsay and they've never met him which is another thing that I pointed out in the story. [SPEAKER_03]: According to federal guidelines prosecution can put hearsay witnesses up but the defense can't. [SPEAKER_03]: I heard them say that this happened.
[SPEAKER_03]: Maybe it did [SPEAKER_03]: But fans can't do that so it's it's kind of a tilted Bankfield and Maduro is not going to see the light of day any time so [SPEAKER_02]: Well, this is a fast-moving story to say the least. [SPEAKER_02]: And I'd say the outlook is decidedly cloudy. [SPEAKER_02]: We don't know what's going to happen. [SPEAKER_02]: These guys and the White House, and such, they didn't be flying, but it's seated their pants, making an up-it's they go along.
[SPEAKER_02]: I can't see any strategic plan here. [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, they'll talk about overthrowing Greenland. [SPEAKER_02]: and hitting a ran and striking Nigeria and me. [SPEAKER_02]: Got a wonder if there's any adults in charge at this point, but you have to give credit to the U.S. military and special forces in CIA for a swift and hygienic removal of Missouri.
[SPEAKER_01]: hell of an operation, not quite hygienic, but now the estimates are what 75 to 80 people may have been killed in that operation. [SPEAKER_02]: Well, it's not a lot better than Iraq. [SPEAKER_02]: Anyway, low bar there, and that's the way it is this week in January, 2026. [SPEAKER_02]: Luis, thank you so much for coming on again. [SPEAKER_02]: You're a great friend of Spichalk and we appreciate it and Peter.
[SPEAKER_02]: We look forward to continuing great reporting and work from you on this issue. [SPEAKER_02]: So thanks so much for everything. [SPEAKER_04]: Pleasure to thank you for having me. [SPEAKER_02]: And that's it for this week's by-talk. [SPEAKER_02]: Be sure to check out our complete podcast, our Kylan Apple, wherever you get your podcast.
[SPEAKER_02]: And if you haven't already, do check out thespytalk.co news site on Sub-Tak, where we offer steady diet of scopes and the original analyses from the intersection of intelligence, foreign policy, and military operations. [SPEAKER_02]: Just Google Spy Talk and you'll quickly find your way there. [SPEAKER_02]: This edition of the SpyTalk podcast was smoothly produced, as always by Cani, and expertly edited by Molly Hawkey for MSW Media. [SPEAKER_02]: That's it.
[SPEAKER_02]: See you around. [SPEAKER_02]: I'm Jeff Stein. [SPEAKER_02]: I'm my goes-goth. [SPEAKER_02]: Thanks for listening. [SPEAKER_00]: For more original reporting and insights like this, subscribe to spytalk.co on Substack and follow us on Twitter at Talk Under Score Spy. [SPEAKER_00]: If you enjoyed our podcast, subscribe and leave a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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