S1E5: A Script for Nuclear War

This is Joseph Stalin giving a speech to Soviet citizens. It's July third, nineteen forty one. In the months before this speech, Hitler had lined up thousands of troops alongside the Soviet border for some military exercises. Yet there's early turns out they weren't just exercises. They were cover for a surprise attack on the Soviet Union.

June twenty first, nineteen forty one, with treacherous assault, Germany declares war on Soviet Russia.

The invasion was called Operation Barbarossa. It was brutal. It marked the beginning of the Soviet's four year long entanglement in World War II. So great news the Nazis lost. I don't know if you heard, but the Soviet death toll in World War two was staggering. Twenty five million Soviet soldiers and civilians were lost. Stalin hadn't seen it coming. Operation Barbarosa had caught him totally by surprise, and getting caught unawares was utterly humiliating. His intelligence had failed him.

They are the focus of evil in the modern world.

So let's just say when it comes to military exercises, the Soviets didn't process their trauma, they didn't have healing. They've got trust tissues and can you blame them? Now? Fast forward to the Fall of eighty three, which, as we all know, was a totally crazy year.

The aggressive impulses of an evil empire.

Shut down the Korean Airlines plane that death straight into Soviet airspace.

The army says that the Pershing two can fly up to one thousand miles in under ten minutes.

Her name is Alex.

She works in a man's world.

She dances in a world of her dreams, flash dance.

Like I said, crazy year. I mean, who knew welders could dance like that anyway. NATO is now preparing to start a massive military exercise, culminating in Able Archer eighty three, a rehearsal for nuclear war. What could go wrong? I'm at helms and this is Snafu, a podcast about history's greatest screw ups, on season one, telling you the story

We practiced who to shoot, when to shoot.

That was our job, was to practice going to war. This is Brian Regal. He was a Cold War tank driver and a former participant in NATO's massive annual military wargame Autumn Forge, which can best be described as NATO's dress rehearsal for World War three. And it would all end with little old Able Archer eighty three. It was all a coordinated effort. It's like, you know, the most elaborate large scale production of West Side Story.

Ever.

Like West Side Story, Autumn Forge has two teams, but instead of the Sharks and the Jets fighting over a girl named Mario, Sorry, I just I love West Side Story anyway. Instead of the Sharks and the Jets, Autumn Forge has blue and orange. Blue team is NATO and orange the Soviets. And just like a play, Autumn Forge has a script. The script has different stages or acts, if you will, as the drama of a fake war plot unfolds. And let me be clear, NATO is very

It wasn't a question of would it happen, It was a question of when was it going to happen.

We were preparing to fight armageddon.

That's what we were told, That's what we believed, you know, that's what we trained for.

We were training to fight the end of the world. The problem with Autumn Forge's realism, of course, is that each year the Soviets watched becoming more and more fearful. They wondered, is this one an exercise or is this the year when the exercise turns into a surprise attack. So in nineteen eighty three, like every other year before, the Soviets took their seats in the front row of NATO's grand production of World War Three, and this year they were in for one hell of a show.

Hello, I'm an Mulligan. Sergeant Richard real is standing by at the AFN Autumn Forge News death.

Yeah. So they even made a fake newscast about it, which might seem really bizarre, but it just goes to show you how committed they were in producing this thing. They really wanted it to feel real. Right now, there was a shift in the battle lines. For the past two days.

Orange Forces after crossing the Donau River, I've made steady advances against the Blue Forces to the west.

Act one, Autumn Forge Orange invades West Germany. Of course, the Soviets are the aggressors in our little war scenario here. I mean, they are the evil empire after all, and then Blue approaches the Iron Curtain to try to hold off the aggressors. Yes, the invasion isn't real, but there are real NATO tanks and very real guns marching right up to Soviet territory here, and the Soviets are watching. The plot continues, Blue struggles against the might of the Orange forces.

The Orange are and have been making penetration against the Blue forces.

NATO is going to need some backup, which means now it's time for act too. Sixteen thousand American troops board planes in the United States flyover and are dropped right into the Autumn Forge theater. These gis have flown twelve hours from Fort Hood, Texas to take part in the multinational maneuvers. Now, this phase of the exercise happened every year, but this year NATO would make a change, a change that would add just a dash of paranoia to what

Corrupt our regularly scheduled program to bring you an NBC News report.

Good afternoon, emby one.

I'm Tom Broke, O NBC News in New York, and here is the latest situation as we now know it on the island of Grenada. It has been invaded by a multi national force. The bulk of that force about eighteen hundred American troops that includes Marie.

On October twenty third, nineteen eighty three, the United States invaded the small island nation of Grenada, a tiny Caribbean island but an important Soviet ally. Grenada had been ruled by a communist government for years. It was going through a violent power struggle when the United States invaded. Reagan claimed he was just trying to help restore democracy, but even US allies condemned the invasion, and the Soviets believed it was proof of just how aggressive America could be. Meanwhile,

Any You girls, or to a large with extra cream?

This is true, and yeah, apparently he didn't even know about the wargame. He just came up with it all on his own.

Anyway, it was a week just like every other week.

This is Jane Gay, a participant in Able Archer eighty three.

NATO headquarters is located in a village called Mons, Belgium.

Monstown Center looked like every classic European city all cobblestone and Gothic architecture. But a few miles out there's NATO's military headquarters, Stately Square Modern. That's where Gene and his colleagues are as Act three, Able Archer kicks off in early November.

The whole purpose of able Archer was the emphasis on the practice of the nuclear weapons release for seizures.

Here's Colonel Spike Calendar, another VET who was also involved in Able Archer that year. Now, a few different NATO countries had nukes and they didn't need permission from their pals to use them. But the whole idea of NATO is that if the Soviets invaded one member, all NATO countries would coordinate on a nuclear defense. You ever hear the phrase big ships turn slowly. In nineteen eighty three, there were sixteen NATO member nations, each with their own

The whole idea was, if you ever had to do it, you didn't want to do it for the first time.

Here's how the whole thing is supposed to go down.

They forced things to happen to make you react to it as if it was the real world situation.

The planners came up with an escalating war scenario and the players are given a challenge. As the scenario escalates, when will you step in and recommend the use of nuclear weapons? Which nuclear weapons should we use? How many? And where is trusting use of twenty five years web? The men reference their binders of war plans, come up with a strategy, and rehearse the approval process for launching nukes.

When yeah, it reached a point where the yes that the president of the Prime Minister agreed that these weapons were required and then would give the in effect the official release to it.

During the wargame, once our pretend president approves the fictional nuclear launch, the Able Archer communications ricochet backed down the chain of command, finally reaching the folks who launch the fake nukes, which is exactly what it's like in the movies. Two men sitting at opposite ends of a nuclear control room, confirming the codes and simultaneously turning the launch keys. Now Able Archer, compared to the rest of bottomn Forge, is

So that was the kickoff, and that was my work as I started out that week.

Which brings us to November fourth, nineteen eighty three. The bunker deep inside NATO headquarters in Belgium is buzzing to life. The communications machines are switched on the lines tested.

Exercise exercise exercise testing communications over.

And the Able Archer planners begin performing the wargame script over the airwaves. The script's plot is getting more and more dire. Remember they're trying to lead the able larger players towards a fake nuclear war, So the planners keep escalating the narrative.

Exercise exercise exercise Orange has invaded Germany over.

And relaying all this drama on NATO's secure communications line. But of course they had company. The Soviets had picked up the signal.

Now all this time the communications are going backwards and forwards, being listened into by the Soviets, who knew this was an intended exercise.

Here's historian Taylor Downing.

And each signal was begun with the sort of three words exercise, exercise, exercise, exercise. But the Soviet analyzes analyzing the radio signals that are being picked up are starting at this point to get really quite anxious, and they're now starting to think, is this actually a real NATO exercise? Is this genuine or is it what they feared was

Now, as you and I both know, NATO is absolutely not planning a nuclear assault upon the Soviet Union. They want to play the war game, learn their lessons, then go catch flash dance or risky business. But the Soviets don't know that. All they know is that under Operation Ryan, intelligence from Soviet spies seems to keep supporting their assumption that the West is definitely planning a nuclear attack. Also this year, strangely, autumn forged troops flew in under total

Here you go, a little guy, here's a big one for you.

God damn it, you're cute.

You seem like you've got it all together up in your little tree. I've got a whole stash of these in my desk, little buddy. Don't you worry, adorable presidential respite or an insidious ruse. I'll say this for Reagan. The guy contains multitudes.

Meanwhile, in London, it becomes clear to one double agent that the KGB is convinced a nuclear war is imminent, so that there was.

A cable in the beginning warning the stations as the American status and a very important exercise which can develop to something sinister.

Here's our old pal, Oleg Gordievski. Remember he's a Western spy pretending to be a loyal KGB spy who is pretending to be a Russian diplomat. I mean, the guy's a human nesting dog. Anyway. It's November fifth, nineteen eighty three. Gordievski is sitting in the Soviet embassy in London when he receives a telegram from Moscow. The telegram tells the spies to keep close watch on the movements of British politicians.

I knew it was a dramatic moment. I knew Moscow was nervous.

November sixth is quiet. It's Sunday. The Lord rests and all that, Ronald and Nancy Reagan wake up at Camp David and head back to DC. The night before, they stayed up late watching The Wicked Lady starring Faye Dunaway. The Wicked Later.

I'd like a dangerous entity.

You make a dangerous patna, Reagan writes about it in this journal. Naturally, it was embarrassing, damn near pornographic. He doesn't even write out the word damn. He literally writes d dash dash in Oh my God, what a dork. But while Reagan is writing rotten tomatoes reviews in his diary and feeding the squirrels, and Dropov isn't having such a good time.

The seventh eighth and November is the anniversary of the revolution in Russia back in nineteen seventeen, and this is a big public holiday in the Soviet Union. There was always a big parade in Red Square.

But Yuri and drop Off doesn't give a speech at the parade in Red Square as he ordinarily would. Instead, he lays in a hospital bed in a secure clinic twenty kilometers outside of Moscow, dying of kidney failure.

All the roads to it were very heavily guarded. Nobody could get into it. You know, it was far away from prying eyes of reporters or dissidents or anybody else. It was completely surrounded by a ring of KGB security. All the other members of the Politbureau would come out in their limousines to visit him.

And never leaving. A drop Off side was the aid who carries the Cheggott, the Soviets version of the nuclear football. It's named after a mountain in Russia. I assume because they don't play football.

There was a feeling in Russia that if the West is going to attack, they'll probably attack while we're sort of off our guard, while we're relaxing, while we're on holiday.

Now we don't know what happened in that hospital room, but here's what we do know. We know that and drop Off was dragged into World War II as a young man when Operation Barbarossa traumatized the Soviet Union with a surprise attack under the ruse of military exercises. We know that he conceived of Operation Ryan to preempt a

It's impossible to know what thoughts go through a person when they're in that physical state, but it's difficult to imagine that it didn't have some effect upon his mental outlook.

Oh and one other thing. We all also know that if the Soviet leaders believed an attack was eminent, they had a policy to launch a preemptive strike to take out enemy weapons before they were even launched. One can only wonder if what was really going on in that hospital room on November seventh was the Soviet leadership preparing a nuclear attack of their own.

So obviously, as there was a lot of activity on the JERU.

Say, this is Oleg Gordievski again back in London during able archer. He's talking about the GRU, the Soviet military's intelligence department. Now this is a little technical, but it's important, so let me break it down for you. The KGB, Oleg's employer, is the official intelligence organization for the Soviet Union, But the Soviet military had their own intelligence department called the GRU.

It was their responsibility. It was their department which was responsible for their countermeageres and for monitoring what was happening in the nights of countries.

So like, I don't know, oh, concerns that NATO is about to launch a bunch of nukes, that would be the primary concern of the GRU, not necessarily the KGB. The GRU also had a bunch of spies in London, also posing in the embassy as Russian diplomats, and Gordiovski remembers that during Able Archer eighty three, those GRU guys were looking pretty stressed out.

I remember that we were sitting on the loft of the embassy and they were sitting in the basement, and they were sitting like mice day and night during the able Archer exercise.

One reason Grdiovsky could tell the GRU was busier than usual is because all of them were skipping the mandatory morning meetings with the Russian ambassador.

In those days of able arch none of them, to the irritation of the ambassador, was present.

For example, the head of the GRU station in London was a man by the name of Yezhov.

People after the because Yezov Heitchhock, as he looks like.

Heitchcock, always with the sick burn. Here's Gordo, He cracks me up. Anyway, She was sitting in a city all the time, as the papers, Gordievsky says it was unusual for the hedgehog to be head down buried in papers. It was clear to him that something was happening that was very important to the GRU. Gordievski also says that the GRU had a signal station in a building opposite

And he was coming from that building, crossing the roads quickly, and in the embassy and down to the basement.

Gordievski watched this poor guy run back and forth all week long, and listen, when you're a top secret GRU spy, you don't leave yourself vulnerable to being seen or followed. So whatever was happening, it must have been urgent. And back in Belgium, well, the temperature was going up there too.

The Warsaw Pact started to use chemical weapons.

That's Tailor Downing again, talking about the Able Archer script. It's November seventh.

And the planners decided they had no alternative but to respond by NATO forces using chemical weapons.

Remember we're talking fake chemical weapons here.

Then on Monday, the seventh of November, in the script, the warsaw pac to taking out various NATO command posts. For instance, the US Air Force Command Center at Ramstein in West Germany is in the script destroyed.

Exercise Exercise Exercise Orange is undeterred by Blues use of chemical weapons. Oranges attack Ramstem with chemical weapons. Boo, what's your move?

The planners, sitting around their tables and looking at the maps on the wall, have to decide how to respond. Then at this point they begin to think about a nuclear execution plan, and on Tuesday, the eighth of November, NATO decides that the only way it can respond is with a nuclear response, and the planners start working out how many megatons of bombs they need to request the un of which key targets across the Soviet Union will be targeted.

Part of my role during this time was to integrate the new weapons into the NATO arsenal and operational plans.

That'd be our man Gene.

And then these new weapons include the ground launched cruise missile which were being deployed into a NATO military basis across Europe as well as the improved US Army pershing two missiles.

Over in London. Some poor gru bastard is listening closely to able Archer communications prepared to spreads across Kensington Gardens to the Russian embassy and deliver messages to Soviet military intelligence. And then within able Archer Blue comes up with their next move. They're going to hit Orange with a nuclear strike.

And now they do something that nature had never done before in this regular exercise. They change the codes that they're using.

Diable Archer Able Archer Blue is requesting use of twenty five nuclear missiles for use on Orange targets. Please look for presidential approval.

The Soviet guy listening must have been like, they didn't say exercise, exercise, exercise. They didn't say it. They didn't say exercise.

And suddenly this change of code now is the final straw. The fact they're changing the codes, which they hadn't done before, clearly signified to the Soviets that this wasn't just a wargame, wasn't just an exercise, but this was a real preparation for the launch of nuclear weapons. And the KGB Center hearing these reports of NATO mobilizing to prepare to defend itself, starts sending out increasingly urgent messages to its residencies abroad to tell its agents to look for imminent signs of

Let's check back in with Comrade Gordievski.

Well, it was a flash telegram. It was an super urgent telegram.

On November eighth or ninth, he can't remember which ole, Gordievski received a flash telegram from the KGB center.

Saying the Americans so now in the middle of their exercise, so be ready for everything and watch thorodly because they know what may happen.

Next, the telegram claimed that American bases had been placed on high alert. Now that was not true. American bases were not on high alert. They had just tightened up security in reaction to a recent bombing in Lebanon, but the KGB does not know this. The telegram states that one explanation for this high alert is that quote the countdown to a nuclear first strike had begun under the cover of able archer their allies.

It was more panic and he stated than Emma.

Meanwhile, President Reagan and the First Lady packed their bags at the White House, preparing to leave DC for a little trip.

Well in a few moments. As you know, Nancy and I'll be bored, Marine want to begin the first leg of our trip to Japan and Korea.

Naturally, their cameras pointed at him, so of course he can't leave without a little Soviet jab.

The Soviet shooting down of Kamla seven, their continued military build up in Asia are grim reminders to us that we live in a dangerous world. I will reaffirm America's commitment to remain a reliable partner for peace and stability in the region and in the world. And that's the spirit of our trip.

Moments later, Reagan boarded the helicopter, his aid a few paces by behind him, carrying the nuclear football and what's in drop off supposed to make of all? This was Reagan priming the public, reminding them how evil the Soviets are, before he cracked open that briefcase and blew them all to smithereens Now a little while later, over in Belgium, the able Archer players receive a pretend message that the pretend President has approved the use of pretend nuclear missiles

Archer, able archer use of nuclear weapons is approved, and.

It's around this time that the Soviets start mobilizing their entire nuclear arsenal.

Soviet leaders had a fateful decision to make, and they needed to make it fast. If NATO is in fact launching nuclear weapons, the Soviets would need to launch their own urgently. If they didn't, their missiles could be taken out in the first wave of the American attack. But if they hit the button and they're wrong, then they've started a war and ended the world as we know it.

The whole crisis comes to a head really on the evening of Wednesday, the ninth of November nineteen eighty three.

That night, in the middle of holiday celebrations across the Soviet Union, military officials received phone calls party time is over. They were needed back at work urgently.

A lot of the Soviets who were mobilized in this nuclear operation, they remember that twenty four hour shift that they were on, very very clearly as being the most anxious point of their career.

The Soviet military went on a state of nuclear alert unlike anything before. And this this is not a rehearsal, my friends, this was real.

Thousands of warheads were mobilized and prepared to launch nuclear weapons. That is, ascent to their battle stations. Each of these ICBMs has well the average was about six warheads, each war head with something like forty times the destructive capability of a Hiroshima bomb.

Commanders who manned the Soviet's nuclear missiles were told to stand by and await launch instructions that could be coming any time in the next few hours.

The Soviet leadership stayed up anxiously waiting for signs that the Americans had in fact launched an attack and prepared to retaliate in a full scale nuclear assault upon Western Europe and North America. And they sent out a message effectively saying, you know, are these guys about to attack us? Are they about to launch nuclear weapons?

The courier at first brought me the message.

This is ryaner Rup again aka Agent Topaz. He's in Brussels at his job in NATO, where he's working undercover for the East German Stazi, a close partner of the KGB. It's November ninth, nineteen eighty three when he receives an urgent message from a Stazi.

Courier Hilers, the Russians are really scared. Day one and away everything any NATO is preparing for war and son.

As far as Rainer grew Up is concerned, it's just another day in the office. There's absolutely nothing going on. No, no, no, we're not preparing any sort of assault at all. It's just another regular day at work.

That NATO headquarters, Yiner Rupp is instructed to respond urgently. He reaches into his pocket and takes out his spy calculator. It's pouring rain. Reiner runs to the designated phone booth. He's out of breath, He's paranoid. He looks over his shoulder. Has he been followed? He puts two francs in the coin slot and dials the number. An elderly woman answers the phone.

Hello.

Reiner says the code phrase, hello Grandma, I'd like to come visit you this weekend. There's a pause and then a click. Now he knows quote unquote, grandmother is recording the call. He raises the calculator to the receiver, presses a button and it makes a noise. Yeah. Encoded in the crackle is his urgent message. NATO is not preparing an attack. There are no plans for a secret surprise attack. Stand down. He hangs up the phone.

No be armed.

I mean, I don't see anything of that happening in NATO.

Now. Somewhere in East Germany, Stazi agents rushed to the home of the elderly woman, retrieved the recording and decode the bleepity, bluepity message that could save the entire world as we know it. They'd send an urgent telegram back to the KGB in Moscow. NATO is not preparing an attack, and when the KGB receives this message, the panic will all die down. Ryan or Rupp will have single handedly ended the nuclear scare, popped the champagne. The world is saved, right, of course not.

They might well have just been another form of deception. And these supremely paranoid KGB officials are seeing Maskarovka everywhere. You know, they're all out to get us. That Rynner Up had been taken over and been told to send this message.

I mean it sounds paranoid, but at the same time, like, how are you supposed to trust a spy?

Of course I was only one agent's and they had their other views.

Sorry, Ryner, we know you tried your best. The KGB doesn't trust him. The one man who could solidly confirm that NATO was not preparing an attack on the Soviet Union. And even at this moment where it seems like things could not get any worse, they do.

It was extraordinarily tense time.

This is John Perutz.

Lieutenant General Lennarprutz was my father and he was in Germany while I was in high school when the events of the Soviet War took place.

John's father, Lieutenant General Leonard Perutz, was a high ranking intelligence officer for the US Air Force stationed in Germany, and it was during Exercise Able Archer when a memo from the NSSA landed on Lyonard Perut's desk about some concerning Soviet military movements.

The first thing, it's the first thing they noted were some heightened activities by some Soviet aircraft across the border in Germany.

The memo said that as of nineteen hundred hours on November, two Soviet fighter bomber planes in East Germany were on high alert. By itself, it wasn't enough to be extremely alarming. But then a few days later he got an update and the picture got a lot scarier.

We found out that some Soviet Air Force unit got approval to arm their aircraft without their jamming pods. Now, the electronic jamming pods are pretty standard piece of equipment on a military aircraft.

They're actually an essential piece of equipment on a military aircraft. They can jam a radar, letting the flight go undetected by enemy surveillance.

And there was speculation as to why would they be allowed to get ready, to be on alert and get ready to fly without that, And there were speculation that, well, maybe they had a different payload.

Than they were used to. Let me do just some military translating for you. The electronic jamming pods are heavy. Linard Perots analysts told him the planes are experiencing weight issues. They're trying to rebalance the aircraft because the weight distribution is changing. It's our theory that they're taking off the jamming pods because whatever they're loading onto those planes is too heavy. And we think they're loading real nuclear weapons.

Interesting, anomalous.

Something you should know about Leonard Peruts. He was a military man his whole life. Procedures, chain of command, I mean, protocol was practically middle name. Actually it was Harry, but you know what I mean. So when he got that frightening report from his analysts, Lynyrd Perutz immediately called his superior four star General Billy Minter.

And he had to report to him, Hey, sir, there's some anomalies Soviet forces seemed if air forces have gone on a heightened alert.

Heightened alert with bombs and tow General Billy Mintor asks Peruts what he thinks.

They said, you know, Lenny, should we heighten our alert level?

Should we put our air force on alert? In that moment, Leonard Perutz was completely unaware that his next move might determine the fate of humanity. He had no clue that the Soviets had intercepted able archer radio communications in which NATO ordered the pretend launch of twenty five nuclear weapons upon Soviet targets, and that the Soviet leaders were awake that night waiting for those missiles to appear on their

With The Soviets were paranoid that any military exercises might just be cover for an actual attack, and so they had all of their.

Spies looking signs of an attack. And basically we're swimming in a stew of confirmation bias. And then NATO begins Able Archer. It's a giant exercise and it fulfills all the soviets worst nightmares. They loaded up all their planes with bombs, and all the leaders retreated to the bunkers, and now their fingers are hovering over the buttons, and they're gonna launch missiles at each other and start a

And General Pots makes a really critical decision at this time. He's not making this decision based on any knowledge about what's happening.

That decision made is attributed to out of misinformation. It's even described as that of ignorance.

So there are two versions of this.

There's the version the CIA initially put out, and then Ilfoya the State Department and got its version, and its version is pretty interesting.

Speak truth to power even when it hurts.

Snapfoo is a production of iHeartRadio, Film, Nation Entertainment, and Pacific Electric Picture Company in association with Gilded Audio. Our lead producers are Sarah Joyner and Alyssa Martino. Our producer is Carl Nellis, Associate producer Tory Smith. It's executive produced by me Ed Helms Milan Papelka, Mike Falbo, Andy Chug, and Whitney Donaldson. This episode was written by Sarah Joyner, with additional writing from me Elliot Kalen, and Whitney Donaldson.