Andrew Bascand: Why do we have insufficient energy? - podcast episode cover

Andrew Bascand: Why do we have insufficient energy?

Aug 18, 202441 min
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Episode description

An insufficient supply of energy has been a looming issue recently, but spiking costs over the past two weeks have led to growing concerns for businesses. 

Andrew Bascand is Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Harbour Asset Management. Andrew joins Tim Beveridge on The Weekend Collective to discuss how it became this bad, and when it may begin to improve.

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Transcript

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks, it'd be.

Speaker 2

Don't lad when you're.

Speaker 1

Paying them more he's dragging?

Speaker 3

No, you're thinking about me when you're riding where he's drying?

Speaker 4

Now you missing mystery?

Speaker 2

Yeah?

Speaker 1

The time he close around me?

Speaker 4

Do you see when you're faith the more he's drinking.

Speaker 3

Now you thanking bout me?

Speaker 5

Coming bother?

Speaker 4

And n w's that sucking your job? Loud slaging, noise.

Speaker 3

Bosted big when you're feet his bad?

Speaker 2

Am I up in your head?

Speaker 4

Making you crazy? Tell me baby, are you.

Speaker 2

Thinking about me?

Speaker 1

Are you thinking about are you thanking bout when you say them more?

Speaker 5

He's dragging?

Speaker 1

Now?

Speaker 5

Are you thanking bound me?

Speaker 3

And welcome back to the Weekend Collective. Gosh, that was fascinating hour we just said with the health up. If you want to check out in the previous hours, then you can go and check out the podcast. Look for the Weekend Collective on iHeartRadio as you don't need to look any further for it. Really, we can go to the week on demand just news Talks website usually has the links as well. Anyway, right, it's time to move

on to smart Money. We want your calls on n eighty ten eighty and text nine to nine to two, and we've got slightly different, slightly different angle on the money out today. We're joined by Andrew Baskin from Harbor Asset Management. Andrew, how are you.

Speaker 4

Going some really good wet down here today? But yeah, very wet, miserable.

Speaker 3

Yeah, But what I meant, wasn't it?

Speaker 4

It wasn't Bill great, terrific. It's got a great service to New Zealand.

Speaker 3

It is, It is impressive. Actually, in fact, I don't know if the financial I was thinking of the pharmaceutical side of things about how do you guys ever sort of is there any investment that goes on in New Zealand through the outside of the pharmaceutical companies into that sort of thing? Not at topic of conversation, but just by the way I.

Speaker 4

Thought I hit that because obviously anyone listening, you know, booked your on collogist first, not not your financial person if you've got a concern you're going cancer. But no, it's true, very true. But yes, there are two core companies that we've invested and we're still invested in Australia. Actually, one called Telix Pharmaceuticals, t e l i X go google that one, and that's a six billion dollar company. So that'd be if it was listed in New Zealand

to be one of our top ten companies. And that specifically got a diagnostic a diagnostic indication for prostate cancer and kidney cancers and so hasn't yet got a fully a fully fledged therapeutical market that it's working on at stage three texts. And the other one is a coop of called mu tep im m U t e P. That's a half a billion dollar company, once again a aussy and that's working in this precision medicine are ss

telics that Bill was talking about. So rather than this broad spread a chema that we're all familiar with, sadly, these companies are both working on precision medicine tillis and radio pharmaceuticals. And then you tip pretty much an area that Bill was talking about, and that's certainly where the science is going. Would all like it to go fast? Yeah, Bill, sort of right, These things take I thought.

Speaker 3

I thought from a financial point of view, it was eliminating because you know, we often hear a lot of stuff about pharmaceutical companies, but when you when you hear how much money is involved in the stage three trial. That's one hundred million bucks or something. I mean, there's it's a hell of a lot of money, isn't it. Anyway?

Speaker 4

I think has got three stage threes on it at the moment. You can only do that for your six billion dollar company, right So, and that's just a it's a very expensive thing to get involved. But new zid and scientists prominent in this area. You know, he was very modest.

Speaker 3

He was very modestically I had had to you know, he was very modest about his own achievements, of course, but you know, very generous to his colleagues who are still working. Hey, we've got a slightly I mentioned we've got a different tech not because not because we're chatting to you, but we're having a chat about the whole electricity picture with spiking costs over the last two weeks and the effect on businesses and what that means for

the broader economy. And it's slightly it's potentially slightly political question too, isn't it, because of the way that electricity supply has been handled. What did you make of just first up, what did you make of these those prices and Shane Jones's comments about I think somebody there was an academic as well who said that our companies have been operating gen Taylor has been operating like a cartel. But anyway you kick.

Speaker 4

It off, Yeah, that's really I mean, if you're sitting at home, I mean, you're not going to see any change in your electricity bill, right, I mean, that's the first thing households, you know, no change in electricity bill.

What we're really talking about is the wholesale market, the market for electricity between companies, large companies principally, and the Shock and Horror Show was and this is what kicked off the discussion, was that the price of wholesale interricy was around six times higher than it's been than it was last winter example, And it's like like June, July and into August, and that's when you know, the Minister

sort of decided he had to say something. And I think it's really interesting because we could just simply say like it hasn't rained in the right places. We could just say that, and that's very true. I mean, our core lake levels up until Thursday or Friday might have changed. Now we're only at forty four or forty five percent of average. And this is a fun fact. I had to go, wait, look at actually our snowpack was similarly at a record low for this time of the year,

a record low. Of course, the snow is the is the element that's going to create in our lakes. Later said stored energy. And the other thing that happened was we had a week here where the wind almost went to nothing as well. It's all three things combining meant that we had this shortage, this huge shortage of electricity to sort of you can't really blame it on the weather, in my opinion.

Speaker 3

It's a situation, isn't it, Because do you remember do you remember back on the I think I seem to remember that, remember when there was a problem with Auckland's levels in the dams and everything, and it led to the CEO resigning And a friend of mine said, you know what, if we'd simply had more more weather heads still have a job, so more rain. Sorry, And there's there is an element of that fickleness about it, isn't there. But of course, well then you.

Speaker 4

Asked us, why didn't we get ourselves set for this? So what I mean, that's the key question. And is it going to happen again? And I think you know, so those are the two questions you want to answer that we're all thinking of. And listeners will have their own views on this, and I'm interested in taking some notes. But look, I think this is my personal three key things that happened over the last five years that we

got ourselves in a pickle. And this is controversial, but my view is that the whole discussion of project work around that huge abandoned onslow pumped hydro scheme terrific idea maybe, but the cost of its sixteen billion dollars, the fact that was going on meant that all of these big companies that generate eletricity for us said, oh no, I can't go ahead with our wind, can't go ahead of that new solar, not going to do a big battery project,

not going to be more geofilmal because we're thinking about as a country putting in I think a thousand megawatts of capacity. Is it like like a twelve to fifteen percent increase in our capacity? So if that was going to happen, well we're not going to go do it. So that that's the way we approach that project I think was wrong.

Speaker 3

Actually, what we're really in it it's it does quickly end up being a political question, isn't it, Because if it went for if it went for that project dominating the landscape, would we be in the trouble that we're in because would we have managed and build the infrastructure or do you think that's I.

Speaker 4

Don't think that's the only thing that And so there's two other things that were going on at the same time. There was a shortage. There's been a shortage of gas. We all know why that happened. We stopped exploring for it, and it's another political decision we made. But that shortage of gas means that in the in a dry, cold winter where the wind doesn't blow, we just don't have enough gas to turn on those big plants that creates the electricity when there's no water.

Speaker 3

We need more gas, don't we.

Speaker 4

Well, well, well, actually this is the thing. I'll come to this. I'm not sure we do. I'll come to this. But we just didn't have any. And the third thing is we had this sword hanging over us with real tinto do they stay, do they go? And can we elicit from them a demand response if we need their electricity back again, and we sort of, oh, we want

we want to sort out these things. And so these things all came together to sort of mean that we sort of stopped producing investment proposals to put in more wind more. So, I think.

Speaker 3

It does seem to me that one plus one plus one, well, I guess I say one plus one. But what you're saying is, and it's a surprisingly sort of political angle to this hour and away. But if the Labor government hadn't announced all its plans for Onslow, would we have the problems that we've got. And I know you don't like to play it politically, that that seemed to me that they ballsed it up completely.

Speaker 4

Well, the thing is, I think the way you present the idea is the first thing you know, it was always just going to be who's going to do this? Is just going to government, was going to be participation, and the size of the project was such that it was going to dominate the eletricity sector. But it wasn't the only issue. And I think by itself probably would have still seen some I think some generation put in it over time. But we had the other two factors

creating a lot of uncertainty in my opinion. But there's the good news sit here now today we're sort of solved all three, have we We've solved all three well. And this is this is the really interesting thing we learned last week that I think is probably something we're just waking up to. So the good news is there's now three terror what that's like seven percent of our electricity generation being built today. That's being built so in

solar wind batteries and that's happening today. So we've made our mind up where they are building. But that doesn't help today tomorrow electricity. But this is what it does. When they renegotiated that Rio Tinto contract, they are allowed the potential to pull a ripcord a few times, not not every month, but a few times, pull a ripcord and give us back four percent of New Zealand's electricity

at the right price. Is it constant doing that? So we pulled the rip cord, I forget twenty days ago, and I don't think, you know, we all work up to the fact that we so that electricity now right now is beginning to come back into our grid, and it comes back for like a month or two and then gradually we'll give it back to the That's pretty good. That's that's happening. But here's the news that happened last week.

The method X are plants sitting out there in Karanaki made a decision, in conjunction with Contact Energy and Genesis to shutter, not not to close permanently, but the word shutter, I think I now know what it means. It means, well, let's close this down to some maintenance and we're not going to use our gas. So the gas response now means that Contact and Genesis will be able to grab that gas and turn on their their peak of plants, their plants to that we use if it doesn't rain.

Speaker 3

There's no where who drive that decision?

Speaker 4

Well, that's very interesting. Must have happened behind behind some closed doors somewhere. I think it was probably a commercial decision. It wouldn't surprise me if just the three companies decided, well, let's let's make a commercial decision that's right for everyone, right for the clients of Contact and Genesis, right for Methodics at the right price. I mean I think there'd

be money, money, money changes hands. He clearly, and it's a good commercial decision and it's actually the right thing for Contact clients Genesis in the country.

Speaker 3

All they went when I mean the critics, some of the gentailers, but they were just charging like wounded bulls, and so they were making money regardless of where they got it from. So the incentive to them to spend money give some money to methodics. What would the incentive for them have been simply restore restoration of their reputations and getting on top of the challenges they've got or what.

Speaker 4

Well, the last thing Contact and Genesis want is to have more opinion. Industrial plants closing down in New Zealand because we can't provide electricity at the right price. Don't forget that these guys are competing with each other, and they're very happy to sell electricity at one hundred and fifty one hundred and forty dollars when the cost of producing it's going to be one hundred and twenty hundred

and twenty five dollars. They don't need electricity to be six hundred dollars, eight hundred dollars, and in fact, that's very harmful, very harmful for their businesses.

Speaker 3

Well, let's just talk about that in terms of what effect it really had on because, as you say, it doesn't affect the average home owner. Of course, we've all got fixed, we've got our deals with which whatever they are, impenetrable though they may be to understand. But what was the effect on the economy?

Speaker 4

Yeah, sadly, sadly. I mean there were quite a few businesses that shuttered themselves. Don't know whether they that they will see the opportunity to start up again when electricity prices come back, and by the way, they have started to come back quite sharply. And the people, of course work in those plants, and that's the demand response that occurs. And now Rio Tinto's providing that demand response. Well, hopefully that will release the electricity back to other industrial users.

I mean, you sort of can't. You can't use electricity. You're not you're not making So we had to make a chure somewhere. Their households turn off their hot water or they're heating, but the school's close or hospitals close. What do you do in the country, So you need a demand response when something like this happens. The key thing for us is we don't want this to happen again, so we need to have mechanisms that think ahead with respect to snow, rain and wind.

Speaker 3

So we're still reactive, aren't we We're not. Is there a chance we're going to become more proactive?

Speaker 4

From you? We're absolutely getting there. I said before. We've got seven percent new brand new KIP going in right now, across wind, across solar, across batteries, across geo thermal. It's seven percent new kit going in, which.

Speaker 3

Is pretty that's seven sounds like a small number. See, it's actually quite.

Speaker 4

A ch This is billions of dollars of investment. This isn't like one hundred million dollars. This is billions of dollars of investments. Now. The other thing is Content Energy has just started a fire up for their Tollhard a new geo thermal plant that went on the ground to stead of four years ago. Turn the first side, and that's taken a bit longer to going. It's about seventy percent up now. That's about four percent three or four percent new electricity by itself. So that's a good that's

a good story. We probably need two or three more of those, because of course it doesn't matter with your thermore if there's no water and no sunshine or no wind, the pipe stool being heated a klumbit of beneath the beneath the earth.

Speaker 3

Yeah, so what what what do you think that? What? What further investments do we do we sort of need from here so we don't see this sort of thing happening again. And what stage is that at?

Speaker 4

Yeah, there are there's another ten percent electricity potential supply on a schedule going out to twenty thirty These are projects that very again from large scale solar plus batteries attached to them, to wind plus batteries, to a significant extension of existing geothermal assets. And this excludes possibly some pumped hydro projects that aren't on the schedule at the moment.

And when I'm looking at all less and if I add all that up, unless the economy here starts scaring both three or four percent, we could seriously get into the position where we have too much electricity, and you know that would be misallocation of resources. However, and this is the point I'm making regard to do any gas or not we need it now, We probably need it through to about twenty thirty five, and we probably need to learn how to store gas, you know, store gas.

But yeah, No, I'm pretty optimistic that will work our way through this.

Speaker 3

So, yeah, it's because a lot of the talkers that you know, we import of this coal to burn and tough times, and you know we haven't. We're not drilling for more gas and things do you So where are you at with that in terms of what the politicians say about the need for it.

Speaker 4

Well, first of all, it's an absolutely dreadful outcome that trucks and trucks and tracks are going down the main road there to Huntly full of coal that isn't from New Zealand under Lett alone, you know, being shipped to New Zealand from sure that we just want to cease that activity as fast as possible. So it's the first thing. Secondly, gas has to be that, in my opinion, that last transition fuel at the moment, and by the last, I mean we can get ninety renewable, ninety six renewable, I

think we're still going to sit on three to four percent. Yeah, sitting here.

Speaker 3

In gas, it seems that unless you're being completely idealistic, you know, naively, then ninety five percent renewable, great, but the last five percent were still going to need to have that spere well. Posie.

Speaker 4

I'm a bit more optimistic that we will find other other means of generating energy. And h I think there's probably more geothermal assets in museum we haven't fully explored. Pretty prey optimistic. We sit, unlike many countries around the world, close to the Earth's crust and that that technology is. You know, we know how to do that stuff. We've got great engineers and scientists in New Zealand who are

world leading and how to extract the energy. So you know, I'm not that pessimistic about our capacity to use.

Speaker 3

We got to take some calls as well, So let's go to what's the time and tell you what. We'll take a break. We'll come back with a call from Peter in just a moment. Are you actually I think, just to sum it up, you're quite optimistic that we're not doing too badly now, despite the catastrophic sort of headlines.

Speaker 4

Andrew, I think if you understand how we got till we got to, if you want to jump in and create an intervention now, I think that could only add add to the noise and and and cease the current path we're on, which finally, I think I think we're generally speaking, on the right path, generally speaking.

Speaker 3

Okay, cool, right, we'll take a break. Come back from just a moment. Oh one eighty text nine. It's twenty seven past five News Talks. He'd be and welcome back to the Weekend collective. This is Smart Money with and My guest is Andrew bask And he's managing director of

portfolio manager at harbor Asset Management. You want to check out their their work and there it's harbor Asset dot cod z. We're talking about something slightly different in terms of electricity to supply, but simply because of the effect

it had on businesses around the country. And Andrew, it's fair to say, before we go to our first caller, you are reasonably optimistic that we're getting on top of this thing now despite all the political noise about NEEDA to drill more gas and all that sort of stuff.

Speaker 4

I mean, you can't, you can't overnight build a whole lot more kit. Right, We now have a possibility that within three or four years will have certainly different configuration of the kit. The key thing that's changed is this demand response from Rio tinto museum Alement themselves and methnics on the gas, and that has created a capacity to put more energy into the system.

Speaker 3

Right, let's take some calls. Peter, Hello, good morning.

Speaker 6

Andrew didn't mention how Australia intervened in their market, and it's no longer a free market as I understand where it's a New Zealand response was sort of a market response. But I just wondered, you know, where is all this guess going to come from? You know, if New Zealand does want to have guess available for four dry years.

And the other question I have is how competitive are electricity prices when we look, we'll pay fifteen percent is to pay a mission trading scheme system plus you know bank charges on credit card transactions, plus on top of that line charger so. And then the other one is with these other people sort of closing down plants and stuff. That was that because they didn't take forward cover? What do you think?

Speaker 4

Andrew? Many questions there. I'll take the easiest one, my guests, My guess would be that either forward cover ran out for these major electricity users or they hadn't taken cover. That would be my guess. And I don't know these circumstances, but one or two things could have happened. They could have just run out of cover, or they just didn't take it. In terms of in terms of gas, it's

really the storage of gas that's the issue. Because if we're not using gas at our Peaka plants, we actually have a capacity of putting some gas into the ground. The problem is we just don't have enough stored gas. That's as I understand it. I'm quite happy to be corrected corrected here. So it's the storage of gas, and as we move forward, we will need as the transition

fuel stored gas. In times where we just once again don't have the water, the wind, or the or the solar power running to fire up our peka, our Peaka plants, we just can't take enough gas out of the pipeline at the moment to all at once. Now with meth necks, however, you know, shattering, we effectively have a short term solution. So that's you know, we we can't immediately go and

rull for more gas either. So and I just don't think personally, and this once again a personal view, and I have a lot of people emailing there saying it's it's not correct, but it's a personal view. Is that I I'd rather see New Zealand invest more in in combinations of battery technologies angio thermal as the medium term answer to create a.

Speaker 3

Chriss would love you because he's talking about bipartisan support for infrastructure plan, but it can't include gas and coal, which I thought, to be honest, sounded nuts that you are going to rule something out. Well, what's your studs, Peter? Still you can chip into pore.

Speaker 4

I'm not. I'm not sure. I mean, I don't think you can rule out You definitely can't rule out rule out gas. I'm not sure you can. Unfortunately one hundred rule out coal because of a society if we're going to need to keep the lights on. I think, however, there's enough projects if you if I run through the projects of promo on the screen, but under construction, in in completion testing. At the moment, we've got a lot of electricty projects running on the How.

Speaker 3

Sort of time period are we putting on all that?

Speaker 4

The schedules of course for Tahara is that seventy seventy percent already it's already up and running. Loadstone already up and running. Loadstone tooka October twenty four solo projects January twenty five, Loadstone twenty five mak. Then we run around. There's a lot, there's just a lot coming.

Speaker 3

Seriously, good stuff, Peter, Do you have any any other supplement, mister.

Speaker 6

Speaker, Australia, Australia, with Australia in their free market, what happened?

Speaker 4

Yeah, And so that they did, and that then, in my opinion, created the situation where companies just ceased investing, that they stopped their energy transition because they didn't know what the price signal was going to be. What is the price when I mean, obviously, unless taxpayers the government is going to take the risk of investing in all these new projects, you need a clear price signal to gain a reasonable return, a return above the cost of

borrowing to put in place a new kit. And so I think there's quite a great danger of jumping in and significantly creating price signals that are, you know, from a government perspective, may or may not be the price signals that will get investors to get involved. That that's that's my view anyway.

Speaker 6

And the price of New Zealand electricity with admissions trading, investing, decent cheers and all that stuff. Line charges.

Speaker 4

Well, I think the one the one point you've raised is line charges, and I think we have possibly under invested for some time and in our infrastructure here, and it's the line charges that are the one that that you know that are currently coming through on your retail retail bill at home. So that's something I think possibly we need to spend a bit more time thinking about.

Speaker 3

Okay, right, we'll take a break, we'll come back. Hamish is next to one hundred eight ten eighty. My guest is Andrew Basquan. He's managing direct to portfolio manager at Harbor Asset Management. We'll back in just a moment. This is news talks said be twenty four minutes to six.

Speaker 5

So tough, thank you, very rough, just can good enough? Just always a puff I'm not bad side, make him a sad side.

Speaker 3

Thank you and welcome back to the Weekend Collective. This is smart money. My guest is Andrew Bascan. He is managing director portfolio manager at Harbor Asset Management. You can check out their work at harbor Asset dot co dot nz. Talking about the whole power problems and how do we end up with in sufficient electricity? Is it as bad now that we've got method X who've taken a break, and Rear Tinto's put an extra four percent into electricity is as bad as you as we've been led to believe,

possibly by the political discussions. Right, let's go to Hamer show.

Speaker 4

A.

Speaker 2

Sorry, sorry, who am I talking to you?

Speaker 3

You're talking to Tim? And what do you mean listening Andrew Baskuan? You just caught up randomly or something.

Speaker 2

So you know, I'm just so I'm talking to Tim, right, Yeah, So I think your analysis is second to none. It's really really good.

Speaker 3

I'm not sure I've been the one providing the analysis. Regrets Andrew's been providing the analysis. Yeah, okay, I mean I like to think I've got a few clothes, but maybe not as many as Andrew Baskuan on this issue.

Speaker 2

What what? What?

Speaker 3

What question did you have?

Speaker 4

So?

Speaker 2

Andrew, I just think your analysis is amazing. But I don't think we've had this discussion in New Zealand around many, many different things for a long time. It's been sort of like throwing under the rugue and does the spot market work? I mean, oh no, I've been in the industry for a long time.

Speaker 3

Have you which part of it? The specifically.

Speaker 2

In America, Henry abb I was a commodities trader and Henry abs.

Speaker 3

Yep, do you much do you reckon that they because it's interesting hearing Andrew's comments about and Pep's optimism about it. Do you think that that the politicians and the political discussion and there's sort of the sort of political hysteria that goes along with, you know, news about the spot pricing obscures a decent discussion on what the reality is and our electricity supplies? Is that what you're sort of getting?

Speaker 4

Henry Habit example is pretty a pretty good one because in Henry have you get these huge spikes? Henry point, well, that's where they trade their gas principally in the US. It's the US is a whole lot of pipelines of gas going everywhere. And the Henry it's a market man. Okay there, But.

Speaker 2

I've come back and working out as another trader now, uh you know so anyway, but I saw the devastation that spot markets can do. And are we on point in New Zealand with what we want to do?

Speaker 3

And do you think we're on point? Hamus mm hmm, No, I think he's disappaired.

Speaker 4

No, it a couple of points there, because I actually think we can do a couple of things, and we probably discussed and government might help out here. But the spot market's one thing for electricity, but the forward market

is probably the market that needs strengthening. This is the market, the forward market my capacity to buy electricity in say March next year or match the following year, when I know I'm going to need electricity, but I don't want to be suddenly paying five hundred dollars for it when I can only afford to pay two hundred, so what

I quite like. Additionally, with the last week or so, there's been a continued tender process for capacity, so we have something called the Huntly firming options to a technical but it is developing something other than the spot market. It's a strengthening the future price of electricity in your capacity gone by bioletricity going forward. And I think these wake up moments of oh, we can't afford to be on the spot market as a company, I've got to

actually go and hedge my altricity. That's a sort of a normal, normal development. I mean that this isn't the first time this matter has been discussed. I mean we've had I don't know how many reviews that we had, the Commerce Commission report, the untested Authority report that a labor government won back in two thousand and eight, we had one, and I think we've survived all that. But we've got onto this problem because of those three things

I mentioned. This, this worry over onslow that's pushed aside, what are we going to do with three or tinto we now know? And the ongoing issues with understanding of demand response. And I think we're getting there. We really are getting there.

Speaker 3

We've got a text here which is asking how come Andrew Baskan from how BACIC management has what triggered has deep dive into the whole electricity question because I actually cross my mind as to.

Speaker 4

Well, well, it's really really good. I've got a colleague who's an expert on this for a start, So I sit beside him and he's been he's been, he's been flat, flat, flat out for two weeks because there's been a lot of stuff going on here. We we were a really big investor instill Are in the in the contact Energy that developed that toll Harder project. I really believe in renewables and I think anything we can do to move the dial on investing in renewables for New Zealand and

do it in a way that's going to work. I just think it's fantastic and work for mums and dads as well as businesses. Okay, and so I'm quite interested. I'm quite interested.

Speaker 3

So what's what's so? What the work your colleague has been doing next to you? Basically what he's been spending a couple of weeks on this. What's I don't know how to answer to ask this inception just a crude way from so what is the point for from that? From the Harberscic point of view.

Speaker 4

Well, you you, you worry when you have these really big movements in the price of anything, that someone's going to get caught out. There's going to be someone who's going to be a winner and someone's going to be a losers the big companies. And we sort of saw a little bit of that happen when one of the smaller electricity generators said that their profits are going to be down a bit. But what we're forgotten here is these big electricity generators. I meant, first of all, they're

not making super normal profits. They're not gouging here they actually have a lot of fixed price, long term contracts amongst themselves. But we really wanted to understand that issue to make sure as an investor in these companies, someone wasn't going to get caught out.

Speaker 3

Okay, hey, what do you think that? Given that, I would say, for me of distilled that you have a slightly more optimistic view of where we're going. But even though we do need to we go and still need to rely on gas when we're a bit short, is there a point what is there a point where the government might have to say, look, we can't bring any more coal and from Indonesia say stuff that we're going to We're going to start digging our own coal. Will there ever be an argument for that in your view?

Speaker 4

My view is I hope not. I hope we're smart enough to be able to invest more than the combinations of wind solar, lots of battery projects, get thermal. You know, I would think more of the same, More of the same will mean the projects I'm looking at will mean we ought to be able to phase out any reliance on coal and with gas, have this demand response from the big users mainly ethnics, and put some of that gas in the literally in the ground, I mean exactly,

that's what we should be doing. Store that gas, not in pipes because we can't store enough gas pipes. Store that gas in the ground so we can draw on it and not bring in cold and then eventually eventually work out how we can phase that out as well.

Speaker 3

What about what about the population? So you know, immigration stats are all over the place, but we seem to have we've got too many New Zealanders leaving, but we've got even more people coming. Here's what's the future for the demand in terms of the picture that you've looked at with regards to how that might affect our energy demand.

Speaker 4

Well, there's two things going on. First of all, we're going to use more electricity with cars and the transport system, so that's that's a demand factor. But the other factor is we're pretty inefficient in using electricity still. There's a lot of you know, there's a lot of wastage in the grid. About that before with lines, we're still as households using electricity like at peak time frames. I mean, I don't know how many people actually listening to the

call put their dishwasher on it midnight. I mean, you should do because it's cheaper to put it on at midnight. Seriously, I mean yeah, and so there's a whole lot of demand demand management. I mean, how many people got their

washing machine? And then we go into battery technology. So it shouldn't be too far away in the next decade or two decades that we have sitting in our garages, not just the odd one or two people, but sitting in our garages battery packs that are both taking energy from our car and then storing it again when electricity prices are low at nuttime because we don't use much altriscy at nuptime.

Speaker 3

I'd actually never thought of sticking on the dishwasher. How much does it cost to do a lot of dishwasher dishes? I guess I don't know. I think you have to answer that question. If you do, Andrew, I'm going to be really impressed.

Speaker 4

I have no idea, but I just like fifty cents or something, just a guess, I mean, what is it? What is it?

Speaker 3

I have no idea. I guess the real answers doing by hand and get the tetawel out and drive them anyway. Look, we'll take a break. We'll be back in just a moment nine and a half minutes to six. Have you got any last minute questions to jump in on there? We'd love to hear from your news talks. There'd be ten to six.

Speaker 5

Yelling cool dusty.

Speaker 3

Weather, that's welcome back to the show. This is a smart money Well, it's the end of smart Man and my guest Andrew Baskan from Harbor Asset. Andrew, just on other things anything, particularly you guys are having a bit of a deep dive into on I think you were the stuff about the volatility of the markets in the last two or three weeks, getting away from the electricity side of things, what's your where things.

Speaker 4

Are Hopefully most people listening and don't open their the key we saver Apple their investment app every day and hopefully they put it aside and look at it quarterly, which is the best advice I can give anyone. But we did have this one day when the global market it's Japan in particular, but the US really fell very sharply, and you know, we had a lot of people calling

and a lot of people concerned about it all. And I think my immediate reflection on this is it's quite healthy actually have a little bit of volatility, and that can happen and it's quite normal and there is risk, but then you could ask why and what's going on here? My sense is that that we've got a situation where we're in a transition with inflation falling, interest rates now falling, and a rotation, a clear rotation of people's wealth. And

that's not just tappening in New Zealand. It's a global thing. And we will get days I'm sure when markets don't go up and that's normal, and weeks when that doesn't happen. And what's happened actually really interesting. We had seven days in a row when markets have responded positively to better data and markets now higher than they were at the

beginning of that. And one thing I'd leave today with is, you know, don't open your app every day and look at balances, I mean, and just focus on those long term needs. If there's one thing that's changing you might take advice on. If you've got an advisor, is you know, as interest rates are falling, ask yourself, are you in the right solution to build your wealth or to save?

And our term deposits still going to generate for you as interest rates for our term deposits still going to be the place that you're going to generate the wealth you need to. That's that's the one thing that I would sort of just.

Speaker 3

Leave firm today. And amazingly we maned to talk about we mased to talk about money and issues without even touching you. I see, and we haven't even got time to find out about fifteen seconds it started.

Speaker 4

It started, it's going, it started, it's going. It's it was wealth foreshadowed and we're on their journey and that's just going to continue to work.

Speaker 3

Thanks Andrew, and if you want to share it, good on you. Harbrasset dot coda Z thanks to my producer Tyra Roberts. Check out the podcast on iHeartRadio and that'll be up pretty much almost immediately the show's finished, and we'll catch you same time next weekend.

Speaker 1

For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to News Talk zed be weekends from three pm, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.

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