¶ Reviewing Investment Statements
Welcome everyone to Skeptics Guide to Investing . I'm Clem Miller and today we're going to talk about reviewing your investment statements . How to start the new year . Steve Davenport and I will dig into the steps you need to take when starting the year so you gain confidence about your statements . Where do you start with your statements , Steve ?
There are a lot of ways to look at it , but here's my process . I look at fees first . I always know what you pay and what you're getting for it . The second thing I look at is allocation between growth or stocks and safety and bonds . That trade off varies based on your age .
Then I look at income how much and how tax efficient is the income of receiving ? Then , lastly , I look at taxes , because I want to understand any decisions I have to make that year and how they're going to be affected by taxes .
Steve , is allocation really the first thing or the most important thing you look at ?
On my list ? It isn't . I look at fees as the easiest way for most individuals to improve their results . So , yes , you look at it once and you set it up and hopefully it's good .
But I also think that , for individuals , understand how much you made for the prior year , how much you paid in fees to get to that result and then determine where you want to go from there .
I think , understanding those numbers and realizing how much they are when you see your fees get into the $1,000 or more , you start to realize that this is something I can control and something I can manage and ultimately , I think that leads you to a better net result .
I think people talk about returns in a gross sense , meaning with no fees , but we really started going to start to take this to . Let's talk about things in terms of a net Net . To you , what did you make last year ? We tackled investments and personal finance a few weeks ago , but today I think , taking that deeper dive .
When you look at your own assets , how do you evaluate your results and think about them ? I think it can make you feel overwhelmed at first , but we're all responsible for our own results . Let's make financial wellness a priority for 2024 .
Well , okay , Steve , that's great . What should our fees tell us ?
First , at fees , I like to look at it as different levels of fees . If you have an advisor , you're paying an advisor a fee and he collects it either monthly or quarterly . Those fees can be between 50 basis points up to 150 basis points . Level two is what funds or ETFs do you use to deliver those results ? And they have a level of fees .
So if you're paying an advisor 1% and he's putting 1% mutual fund in your account , that means you're overall paying 2% , and so that is starting to be significant . If the average return of your equities and bonds is 8% and you're paying 2% , 25% is going away to the person who's managing it for you .
That's significant and that's something you should try to change . Level three is where are there any loads on the funds ? Level ? Funds have this fee that is associated with selling their product and therefore you pay that fee as a load , and it can be significant . Some of them are spread over three years , five years or seven years .
And level four are there any commissions ? Most places have eliminated commissions and they're not really a factor anymore . They and I did a study about fees and they said , looking at the returns , the most clear determinant of good returns is lower fees .
So when we look for improving something , we can hear about an advisor or a fund that has great returns , aka ARC . But when you look at it over time and you look at what the fees are paying , it gets harder and harder to justify higher fees .
Actually , Ark might be a good example of a manager that does well sometimes and does very poorly other times , and so the question is do you really want to pay a high fee for something like that ? So I mean , Steve , back on fees .
Obviously , index funds , ETFs that are tracking index funds , have quite low fees , quite low what are called expense ratios or fees , and it strikes me that most people or maybe not most , but a lot of people have already caught on to the fact that their fees are quite low . What do you say to that ?
I think that's great . For most people , I think it's a great solution . I think that what we want is simplicity and if we can leave our assets alone , time works in our favor . So lower fees , longer time horizon , don't trade as often those three things really determine success . Index funds usually vary between two basis points to 35 basis points .
Mutual funds vary between 50 basis points and 300 basis points . That's 10 times the amount you're paying . They better deliver more results if you're going to pay 10 times more . Etfs are somewhat more than index funds because you have daily liquidity or interday liquidity .
Etfs go between five basis points , but I saw a Bitcoin ETF at 150 basis points 1.5% that's a mutual fund like fee for an ETF , and then loads can add 2% up to 10% to your overall expenses . These are big numbers and you just have to understand what you're paying for .
Yep . So in my portfolio I use individual stocks and so there are only commissions for me . I don't pay anybody else expense ratios or anything like that . That's me , I feel like I've got given my professional background , I've got a lot of money . I've got the knowledge and experience to be able to do this investing individual stock , investing myself .
But that's obviously not the case for everybody . A lot of folks just don't have the time or really the resources to actually do this kind of work themselves . So they're willing to pay some fees . It's just a question of how much those fees are .
We use Morningstar for a lot of our analysis and it costs us a significant amount to get the value from all the analysts covering all the names , but it's a great asset when you have a limited amount of time to follow every company . So I believe that the individual has to make a decision .
There's some , I believe in the Peter Lynch method of kind of in the Charlie Munger knowing what you own making sure you're familiar with it , that's fine . I think that for most people , an index fund with low fees is the right approach . The main thing is look at your assets and try ensure your portfolio is helping you accomplish your goals .
There may be cases where a fund and ETF is beating the benchmark by 100 basis points and it's worth paying the 50 basis point fee , but there's a lot of cyclicality and it may beat them for three years , but five years , seven years , 10 years , it's behind .
That tells you that there's a time and a place for every strategy and , as you mentioned , ARC had its time and its place , but it may not be the right time and place right now . You have to take responsibility for making your assets satisfy your plan .
So , Steve , I really like those thoughts . You mentioned asset allocation earlier . Where does that fit into the picture ?
I think that's the next area that you want to understand how much risk am I taking ? Allocation is considered the holy grail for most advisors . It represents something like 90% of the results come from your allocation decision . Time is your friend when you're younger , and caution is advised as you approach retirement .
There's a time to make back your losses if you start early . But a simple formula that some people use is to take your age , subtract it from 110 , and that equals your equity percentage . Some people apply maximums and minimums of a maximum of 90% in equities or risky stock and a minimum of 25% Is real estate , an asset for investing or living .
I think that when you look at your assets , we're talking about your investable assets , but the other things you own car , home and potentially a second home you need to think about how all of those assets are growing and how they affect your overall wealth .
I think that updating your allocation once per year and getting it back in line , maybe in January when you're doing this review of your statements , is a good idea . Looking at it every day or five times during the day not a good idea . I think that when we look at our allocation , we wanna understand how much is in US assets versus non-US .
The world's capitalization is 55% US , 45% non-US , but most people are more comfortable owning things that have a home country bias , meaning they like to own companies that are US companies . Is that a mistake ? It hasn't been , because the US companies tend to have a better operating environment and also a systems and educated workforce .
So people might only wanna put 20% in non-US assets . And the last thing I'd say about asset allocation is there's something in the middle and I'm a middle child so I call it the messy middle . I yield prefers utility or infrastructure reads . I think that there are some characteristics of fixed income , some characteristics of equity .
Therefore they don't easily fit in one of those buckets . But that's where we get into a more complicated decision and I think that all of this is get started , understand , and then we start to get into these next questions about how to allocate more sophisticated way . What would you invest in when you were young , clem ?
Ah , so I don't remember when I was young . That's just a joke . Well , when you were more sane than you are now let's put it this way , and I guess back then it was pretty much US and passive ETFs . I knew I didn't have enough money or accessed information to do individual stock selection .
But all that has changed and I feel like I can certainly do that now . I wanted to address one or two points I think that you raised when you were just talking . I think that you know the messy middle , some of those things high yield , preferred infrastructure , you know , maybe those things are .
It could be that those things are beyond the reach of some retail investors . There are some nuances to a lot of these asset classes that are complicated or confusing , so I'm not so sure that I would recommend those .
¶ Understanding Retirement Income and Tax Considerations
And US versus non-US that's worth the whole podcast in and of itself . So I knew that one would get you excited . I mean , I'll just point out one thing , which is you don't necessarily want to go by market capitalization . You know 40% of the earnings of the S&P 500 companies come from overseas .
So by investing just in the S&P 500 , you're actually getting a lot of global economic exposure . You're not really limiting yourself in that respect . The reason to invest in in my opinion , the reason to invest in international stocks is to be able to have exposure to stocks that you just can't get in the United States .
You know , if you're going to invest in a US pharmaceutical company and I know we're going to be talking in this round of podcasts about Lilly and Nova Nordisk but if you're going to invest in Lilly , why not invest in Nova Nordisk ? They're both companies . One just happens to be overseas and one just happens to be in the United States .
So what you know , what's the difference ? You know you go where your opportunities are . I agree .
I'm really just giving people a rundown of things that they consider in their allocation . I'm not recommending to anybody to do any particular asset class . I'm just saying that there's risky and they're safe . There's cash as the safest asset and maybe there's an Ark fund that's the most risky , or there's an individual name that you want to invest in game stuff .
All I'm saying is that there's a spectrum and people will invest on that spectrum , and I think that when I look at retirees and their decision making , it's all about income . Am I getting enough income ? Can I get income from other sources besides bonds ? And that's where some of the interest in preferreds, infrastructure and other utilities stuff comes from .
I'm not saying it's right for everybody . A young person shouldn't be investing in these utilities . They should be focused on growth . So I think that as we age , it should change . There's so many variables here . I'm not trying to come up with anybody's asset allocation .
I just want people to understand it and I think that when it gets to looking at some of these assets , it's not always clear and I think that , like you mentioned the US companies that have great foreign presence , like Coke , 80% of their revenue is coming from overseas . So , yes , is it a US domestic company ? Absolutely .
Is it really a company that only depends upon the US economy ? Absolutely not . So I think that it gets complicated , and that's why we're trying to do this is to try to simplify it for people and give them some good ideas .
So , Steve , you were talking about income and I'm wondering can you sort of run through the income that comes from particular areas ? I know you've got some thoughts about safe versus risky Sure Buffet approach . What would you say to these ?
So when we're looking to be retired and cut back on work , it's the income you can generate that will give you the freedom and the options on your life in terms of what you can do . Most of people have a social security and they may have another pension or other assets .
So I think that they look to their portfolio to provide additional income and when we look at our two main asset classes risky they'll typically yield between zero and 4% . When we look to safer assets now , they're yielding somewhere between 4% and 7% . So do we put it all in safety or do we still keep a little bit of risky ?
I think the answer is that we're going to have a retirement that will probably last from 65 to 85 . It's a 20 to 30 year period . That period is going to need some growth , so I think you have to mix the two in a way that makes sense for yourself .
Historical returns for risky assets are about 8% , which about 1.5% is going to come from the dividend or the income , but most of it's going to come from the growth and the safe assets 4% , and most of it is going to come from the income . So those two assets are going to do different things for your portfolio and different things for you .
When we think about inflation at 2% eventually , maybe after a few years and fees of 1% to 1% , there's things that are going to eat into those returns . And if you just have a return of all safe assets and you've got inflation at 2% , taking that little way , that's not going to lead you to retaining your spending power . So Buffett had a simple solution .
He said , if he was to die and what he'd tell people to do , he'd say 80% in the S&P 500 and 20% in Treasuries . And if you think about that , the yield , you know the return will be somewhere around 7.2% , with fees somewhere under 10 basis points .
That's a pretty efficient portfolio that's going to have pretty good results and the 7.2% is going to most likely cover inflation and still give you something left over for growth . So when we think about all of these things , we need to start thinking about gross and net . Gross means a total return and then net , net of any taxes , fees or other items .
So I think it's really about understanding your income is something that you don't need to do right away , but as you're a person of time and I know you and I are trying to figure out where is that income going to come from , how are we going to get it and how ?
Safe , is it so , Steve , you mentioned taxes as being a key element here . Can you talk a little bit more about that ?
Sure , I hope that I can help , but here we're getting into a very specific area where individuals have different states and cities and municipalities that may tax them in certain ways . So I recommend that you talk to your accountant and you understand how your local , city or state taxes investments .
When we're looking at taxes , we're talking about taxes on gains or losses from the sale of the security in one of your taxable accounts and on income that you receive . So income and capital gains have different tax rates and you need time to understand what they are . As you think about your assets , there are many choices for you to defer or to pay taxes .
Today
¶ Considering Taxes, Investing, and Asset Allocation
You're going to earn more or less next year . Is your job ? Is you or your partner changing jobs ? What are the tax rates going to be over the next five or 10 years ? There's a lot of people who are worried about the amount of debt the United States has and what that means for tax policy .
These are all good points and good things to think about , because some people say , oh , I don't want to pay today's tax rate . In five or 10 years we might look back at 2024 as the golden age to assault securities .
Yeah so .
Where do you think tax rates are going ? Clem , did you put an even bet between higher and lower ?
Yes .
Really . Yeah , I tend to believe they're going to go higher .
Yeah , well , I mean , certainly , with the fiscal deficit being what it is , it could go higher , but also we're seeing some pretty strong economic growth and that might help to close the fiscal deficit without higher taxes or without significantly higher taxes . So I think it's I give it 50-50 actually .
Well , you're pretty optimistic , yeah , so , Steve , I usually well I often am optimistic . I thought you were a skeptic On many things , but not on everything . So , Steve , let's turn to our mailbag . So we have here a question Are index funds the best choice for everybody ?
I think the ETFs offer a great one-stop solution . Like all solutions , you modify and adjust as your needs change and as your education and comfortable with these ideas changes . I think for an individual who wants to structure something , that they can set it and forget it , these are a very good solution . What do you think individuals do in stocks , Clem ?
Well , I think that the younger you are , the more you want to invest in ETFs or actively manage mutual funds , even despite the fees . I would do your research , of course . I think as you get older and have more assets , then I think you can expand into other asset classes and also into specific stocks .
Again , if you're going to buy individual stocks , they should be stocks that you know something about , not based on who you talk to at a cocktail party or something like that . I think you should really have done some research before you invest in particular stocks and , as you , there's a transition period here too .
There's a long time period between when you're young and when you're older , in which you can gradually move , as your knowledge level increases and your assets increase , from more of an ETF-only approach or a passive-only approach to an approach where you're using all active or active mutual funds or investing in stocks by yourself .
So it can be a transition period as well .
So , Clem , I mean I would summarize and say that , first of all , looking at statements and having assets that you can look at and evaluate is a great place to be right . It's nice to have assets versus have no assets and worry about the future without some of the things that can help you . The first thing is fees matter .
I think that fees are an important part of how you manage your life and the expenses you pay for things . It matters a lot when you talk about the magnitude of the assets you have in your investments . Allocation is your comfort with risk ?
How comfortable are you with you know , when you go to sleep at night and you hear the market was down 3% , does it bother you or does it not bother you Because your time horizon matters ? A couple of assets starts to be more of a factor as you get older and you start to want to use those assets to cover your expenses .
They evolve , your needs evolve and taxes , like fees , can make a difference . So anything else to add , Tom ?
I would add just a couple of things . One is you know no asset is truly safe . You know even treasury bills , treasury bonds , I should say which you know have no credit risk per se . Credit treasury bonds do have interest rate risk as rates go up , bond prices go down and vice versa . So there is risk associated with the so-called riskless assets .
So I'd keep that in mind . I would say safer , I guess , is better , yeah . And then I would say that I would agree entirely with you , steve , about you know , if the market goes down 3% in a day , not to panic and sell . It's really important not to panic and sell .
In fact , if the market goes down 3% , 5% , 10% , that's the time to be buying stock , not a time to be selling stock . And if you're comfortable doing that , then you're somebody who should be investing . But that's you know behavioral , psychological thing that you know that investors should like . You know what's a good entry point .
That's what professional investors call it An entry point for buying . You know , into the market or into individual stocks , you need to be comfortable buying low and selling high and not the opposite .
So maybe we should do a behavioral podcast .
I think we should at some point .
Okay , well , thanks everybody for listening . I hope you appreciate it and I hope you give us a like and a share . We don't have ads and we do this as a way to give back and we hope you enjoy it and we look forward to our next podcast . Thanks , everybody .
Thanks , Steve .
