Thinking Sideways: The Glasgow Effect

O and Devin. He was pointing at me, was it? It was sort of pointing in between us. So I just as always, we have another mystery for you. Uh, this is a listener suggestion before I get too far in, because we seem to be trying to forget mentioning that their listeners suggestions. Lately, there's just too many suggestions. Sometimes you just formissed that it's a suggestion. Yeah, well then you suggestion by Joel. So Joel suggested the topic today, which is the Glasgow effect, or you may see it

referred to as the Scottish effect. But it's more Glasgow than anywhere else, right it is, and we're we're saying that, right, I'm Glasgow. It's not Glasgow or like Glasgow. Listen, do we have to go and start angry emails in the first two minutes? You too? Yes, damn it. Well, this mystery is a little bit different than normal. It's not a murder mystery. There's there's a lot of death. It's it's more of an unknown health situation, socioeconomic mystery. Maybe

I don't know how to classify it. Steve Special, it's Steve Special. Actually, there we go. That to really appeared to be all that socioeconomic. I think it's to do with spoilers. Spoilers as we'll find out. All right, Well, let's start by explaining the Glasgow Effect. Starting somewhere in the your early two thousand's, a bunch of studies started cropping up that we're talking about the unexplained poor health uh and blow average life expectancy of the residents of Glasgow, Scotland.

The Glasgow effect is and I quote, a term used to describe the higher levels of mortality and poor health experienced in Scotland over and above the that explained by socio economic circumstances. Evidence of this excess being concentrated in West central Scotland has led to discussion of the more specific Glasgow effect. Unquote, if anybody driving home hoping for you know, something to keep them awake, this might not

be it. It's definitely more academic. If you're living in Glasgow, is probably going to scare the crap out of you, or you're already dead, one of the two. But you know this is this is definitely much more of an academic mystery than than our normal fair So it's a good one for the people who listen and run at night. Yes, the that quote before I interrupted you Sorry, yeah, well I was just gonna say no, is that the quote

doesn't really do a good job of explaining it. So let me try and break this down a little more of Layman's term situation UM. Glasgow's mortality rates are considered easily the highest in Britain, and they're among the highest

in Europe. Whether it's death from things like siro cirosis, drug abuse, a cancer, murder, suicide, life expectancy at birth in Glasgow is lower than average, and for men that means that the men will live to be an average of seventy one point six years, whereas everywhere else in the UK they would normally live to an average of seventy eight point two years, basically six year difference. And also it's it's concentrated in certain areas of Glasgow too.

There's areas of Glasgow where a white male life expectancy is fifty four, yeah, and other areas where the life expectancy is actually like eighty three. Correct, So it's all over the map. But that's you know, that's the thing about statistics that you've got to average the whole thing. But let's get back to this. So now if we talk about women, they the average for women is four years below the national average. So in Glasgow women will are expected to average seventy eight years compared to in

the UK the average of eighty two point three. And these are just to help frame it. That's these are significant, right, it's not I mean there and they must be. They must be significant enough that there's there's a total effects named after it. But you know, when when you talk about the difference of four years life expectancy, that doesn't sound that outrageous. Okay, well let me know, so let me try to break this down and so it makes a little more sense than all right, you've got a

city that on its own people. And this is you know, in the developed world, we've got a city where people in general aren't living as long. Now. The easy thing, and this is something that will come up in the theories, is people say, oh, well, it's the impoverished, it's the poor. They don't live a good lifestyle, they don't eat right,

so no wonder they die early. Well, it turns out that the upper ten percent of the of Glasgow, the people who are in that upper ten percent of the economic bracket, they also die younger than their cohorts that significantly, yeah, in in other cities. So it's not as if it's this one demographic that's holding all the numbers down. And that's what's got everybody kind of scratching their head is wait a minute, So it's all across the board. It's

all walks of life. It's not just one group. They should do some research on this they I bet they have. I'm pretty sure I read some of it. Actually, um yeah, well no, actually, you know, that's a good point to bring up. There is a bunch of research on it. And one of the places that I will cite because they put out so much great information is the Glasgow Center for population health. They have study after study after

study after study. If you want some good nighttime reading, I have a couple of reports that are pages long that are they are just they will deriveting. So the people that are maintaining this side, are they all still alive? I think, I guess won't that much longer, right, Yeah, No, it's it's gonna be up for a while. Now that we've kind of explained the mystery, there's a there's some

details we should probably give some people. Uh, first of which, for folks who don't know Glasgow is in Scotland and Scotland is part of the UK, it's what would you say, it's about the upper third of the island. It's ballpark that But with some people, you know, the geography isn't there their gigs. So I just always try to point that out to the island you're talking about. It's not the UK though, right Britain. Yeah okay, oh yeah, no, you're right. It would be Britain. Detail that's going to

point that out. Yes, you're absolutely right, you're right. I would have I would have got us on that one. Uh. For some there's I pulled census data because I figured this would probably be important. It didn't turn out in the long run to be as much as I wanted. But there's something to keep in mind, which is Glasgow

is a really big city. Uh. The city itself is sixty eight square miles, which is a d seventy five square kilometers, but there is also the Greater Glasgow Urban Area that means just all the area around the city of Glasgow what we call the metro area, called the metropolitan area, and that's a hundred forty two square miles or three sixty square kilometers. Not nothing, No, it's it's a big, big place. And according to the last census in Glasgow, which when I pulled it was from there's

six hundred thousand people in the city. Now I census that I pulled for the urban area was from two thousand one, but at that point it was one point two million people. So it's a big city. It's not the biggest city in the world in terms of population density. There's what did I figure it out here, There's like hundred people per square mile or something like that, but it is of Scotland's population lives in that city, so

it's it's kind of the major city. Yeah, A lot. Now, I pointed out that there's the city of Glasgow and then there's the Glasgow greater urban area. That's kind of important to know because if you do ever go dig into the studies, you'll see some studies refer to just the city of Glasgow and some of them that pull from the greater urban area. UM. Now, that's important because it are they using the smaller pool of people or the larger pool of people to to get their data

and to get their results. I've seen some conflicting reports, but most of them, even when they pull it from the greater urban area, the effects still seems to be present. But it's something to be aware of. If you do the reading statistics, you gotta love them if you can work them. However, you need to the other bit of technical information that you need to know here. If you do go in any of the reporting, you're gonna see a phrase which I believe it or not, took people

all the figure out, and that is excess deaths. I didn't understand that. I was like, it wasn't every one of them just neccess And yeah, now it turns out that is the number above and beyond what the expected average is gonna be. So we're gonna get into some more sexy numbers here. I can see the look on Devon's face. She is excited about percentages. Alrighty, So what I'm gonna give you here is the percent of excess deaths in the Glasgow area above and beyond what the

national average is. And this is going to be for all age groups, so from zero to one hundred or I guess it's one, but yeah, well I guess it could be. Yeah, Well you get the point. So we have above the average death of cancer is twenty three the sorry, so it's uh that much above average? Right? So average is zero in this case. Let's say the average was a thousand. Okay, so there's an the average of a thousand deaths a year from cancer is expected normal.

Then it would be two d and thirty two because that's more more right. So yeah, I guess I was saying that, like, you put average at zero, so the is above average? Correct, got it? All? Right? So then we have deaths from circulatory issues, which I would take to mean things anywhere from heart attacks to strokes. But that is five. I never actually got a good explanation of what they meant by that, and then alcohol related that is higher than expected, so that'd be alcoholism and

sorrosism and stuff like that. Any deaths related to alcohol, yes, exactly does that? I'm sorry, does that include like car crashes? To be quite honest, that is one of the things. So there's a bunch of phrases used that are never the same from one report to the next. So sometimes it's a little difficult to know if you're comparing apples to apples or apples to oranges. So I can't answer

exactly what it is. But if we do, if we look at the numbers, and we were then to remove anybody who is sixty five and over, as our British friends like to say, the pensioners, you take them out, and we have people who die from alcohol related issues, only it's higher. So it seems like the younger generation maybe is is boozing it up more. Um. And then the other thing that's notable for that group is drug

related issues, which is seventeen percent higher than expected. Yeah, although you know, I've I've read that they've done studies and the other other comparable like, um, British towns, there's actually uh, there's no more drinking in Glasgow than in

other towns. No. Actually, it turns out in Glasgow they actually drink inc They have less binge drinking and it seems like there's less drinking there than the other towns of the talent that you're talking about that are in the reports in the research, that's going to be Liverpool

and Manchester. Yeah, to be the favorite. Yeah, because well they seem to through the data somehow they seem to match up in terms of I'm guessing something to do with population size and then the spectrum in terms of demographics from you know, way below the poverty line to making x an amount or more a year, probably similar you know, male female ratios, all those and all that stuff. Yeah, I mean I've got to presume that's why they would

be selected. Otherwise it wouldn't make any sense to select them. Um that right there, though, Believe it or not, that's one of our shortest mysteries, because that is the mystery, is that we've got all these people who are just dying younger than they should and we don't know why. I don't know if you mentioned this. This this whole

thing actually started in about nineteen fifty. We haven't got to that, but you're absolutely right, Yeah, you gonna mention that, like we can do it and we can talk about now that's not a problem at all. You're right, Joe.

And one of the things that I'm kind of intrigued by since we're heading into theories anyways, and probably somebody has thought to check this, but what are there any major population movements starting about nineteen the whole bunch of people move away or a whole bunch of people move in. So there have been migrations. Um, Glasgow itself, it's always been or traditionally it was a large industrial city and they were known for a couple of things, one of

which was shipbuilding. That's what brought a lot of people to the city. Um, there was a huge migration push in the eighteen hundreds. There a lot of people came in. And when you're in that, um what is that? That era called the Industrial Revolution? Thank you that we're just skipped right out of my head as soon as I wanted. When the Industrial Revolution hit, you know, it's it's kind

of that trip typical growing city situation. Everybody came in and it was a dirty, jammed, gross place, but they made a lot of stuff and then, but also one can presume not much more. I mean, it wasn't more dirty or jammed than many other major cities that we No, No, it wasn't. It wasn't in any way that I can tell in the research crazier or more dangerous or dirtier or anything like that. And it was kind of average.

You're right until Joe was saying, is that in the fifties, And at that point that's when they started to see that people were dying younger there than they should have. At the same time, there was migration out of the area, but there's also been migration into the area, because, like I said, it started with ship building, and then they had chemical processing and then I can't remember. I want to say, it's a textile. I've got it somewhere in

my notes here. I'll find it in a bit. I can't with the third industry was but there were three industries. I thought it was like plutonium mining and handling or something like that. It wasn't that, but that would just be the answer. Then. But are clean industries, so it makes sense that they're they're workers are likely to be sicker, except that over time things clean up. But it's it's no worse than any other industrial It shouldn't be any

worse than any other industrial towns. And that's that's again the problem. Those industries started moving away. So as these people who are now dying in their fifties and sixties, they were probably born at a time when those industries were just getting out of town. It doesn't necessarily mean I mean something, so they should have been breathing or

anything that these nobody would spit out. The genetic donor that created them, had something like that that caused their you know, the DNA that they were given to reproduce a way, that's something that they do know. But I mean, again, this is like we're probably way into your theories at this point. No, actually, no, this is this is actually I'm glad Joe brought it up. I hadn't thought about the fact that this is probably should be talked about in the and the onset of this before we get

into theories. But yeah, you know, and and just so people know, is that, yeah, people were coming in. The cultural demographic of the area has changed over time. So as with any any city, um, it's changed over time. So it's a completely different gene pool now than it was fifty and a hundred years at least statistically significant, Yes, a significant, significant enough that I would I would say it's notable. Um so that stuff has happened. And then yeah, no,

you know, the the economy has changed. All of the big industries, most of the big industries. I think it's sixties some percent of it started leaving as of I think nineteen sixty or sixty one. They started leaving, and it's you know, thirty some of what they originally had is is industrial jobs. Is what's still there. They do like to put those industries in places where the government's

care a little less about regulations. That's one reason. Um so, yeah, so, I mean that's you know, that's had an effect on it, which is why you see cultural migrations. Because if I am a chip builder and there's no more ship building jobs, I'm gonna go somewhere else where I can build ships, make that money for building ships rather than flipping burgers

at a McDonald's or something. And then here's the deal, is that the people that migrated out might have actually been uh might have actually been a little smarter, little more hard working. I don't want to I don't want to offend anybody from Glasgow, but I don't think that would have any effect on it. I don't know. You know, actually would be a fascinating thing to study, but it seems like it's mostly a health issue. Well you never know,

it might be a genetic issue, who knows. But it would be interesting to track down all the people who left Glasgow and see how long they lived. Leaving Glasgow actually extend your lifespan. It seems like something that they should have done and at some point. But I don't know how easy that is though it would be tough to track. What you need to do is you have to, like on ancestry dot com that like, for fifty bucks

or whatever it is, we could figure this out. I think I'm charging I'm charging to read the Wikipedia page of you know, different cases right now. So, uh, I think we'd charge more than fifty to solve this one. True. Yeah, that sounds fair. Let's now that we've gone through that, let's get into the theories, because I think that's that's

the next logical step for us. Um So we're going to start with the first theory, which is poverty, because as I said, that's the big one that you will see people point at is that people who are in a lower economic station in life, they don't have the money, so they're not going to eat as well, they're gonna do things that aren't good for them. So I'm gonna work in those shipyards or in the platonium platonium holding in here. Yeah, yeah, I mean that's just I mean,

that is just a reality that we know. Yeah, yeahs things have changed. Yeah, and also just the stuff of you know, the different stresses and the incredible toll that that can take on your lifespan. Is if you know you're living paycheck to paycheck, or in unstable housing, or or if you're if you're on the doll as they say, Because here's something to keep in mind is that in Glasgow, one out of five people are out of work and

one out of four are getting assistance. So that's that's a lot of joblessness, and that means that's a lot of people, as you said, we're kind of scraping by. Yeah. And the and the added stress on that I know, we've they've done so many studies all over the world on all that stress significantly affects the health levels that you'll see. Yeah, we've and generations down and even actually interesting fund side fact, I think I heard this on like NPR or something like that, so I may have

my facts wrong. I'm just recalling, so please don't tell me that I'm lying or anything like that. But I'm pretty sure that they've done studies on the stress levels of pregnant mothers and how it affects the obesity rate of their children, which is so interesting. I actually have some of that at this point, So that's yeah, no, you're but you're on track. It does, it does make

a huge difference. Um, so let's talk about we talked ahead and sorry, So I just mean that that's something to keep in mind when you say, well, even if you know the families are doing better and better, just because that's the case, it doesn't mean that today doesn't mean yea. Um, So if we take a look at the history in Glasgow. You remember I told you there

was that big cultural migration in the eighteen hundreds. Well, in the nineteen fifties there was this thought that we need to build the city, we need to change the city, and so the government actually built a bunch of high rise tenement housing, kind of like we did here in the States. And we die. Yeah, Chicago is the one that comes to mind for me, and it was a situation where it was government owned and these people were living in it, and conditions weren't always healthy, they weren't clean.

I'm not blaming anybody for this, it's just what happened sometimes, as we've seen all over the globe with this kind of housing situation. So just to be clear, the comparison is that this kind of housing would be the projects essentially. Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's it's it's it becomes a slum in a way. Um, you know that they've gone. They've now come back. I think in the last twenty or thirty years they started

tearing those buildings down. They're trying to fix things up. Unfortunately, it's left this poverty stricken area because if you can afford not to live in that building, you're you're gonna escape. You know, people flee that people who can't can't. And so this is something that gets pointed out. It's more of a you see it pointed out more than anywhere

else in the news reporting of this. When you get into the actual data, it's it's actually admirable the amount of work that every researcher does to just kick the living crap out of this theory because they've taken they if they take this what they it's referred to as a socio economic factor. That means you're station in life,

your income level against the poverty line. And when they balance through that and they take it out of the equation, people in that area are still dying sooner than people in similar cities with at the same time when they take it and they put it in an evil, uh even playing field. Yeah. That The thing about this, this particular mystery is is U policy advocates usually, you know, use it as an excuse to ride there on the

law abby horse. So if you're a big anti poverty advocate, well you're going to jump right on this, you know. And well and it seems like a really easy thing to blame it on. Oh yeah, you know, really easy. Yeah, I'm sorry. But the impoverished or what is it that they get referred to? Disenfranchised I think is one of the words that I've seen used. And there's another one. I think that disenfranchise is kind of inappropriate though, well, you know, isn't the word that I'm looking for. It's

it's in here. But there's a couple of different terms that are used, but it is just basically it's pointing at deprived all that stuff. Deprived, thank you. That was the word that I was looking for. They call it a deprived neighborhood. The Yeah, the term that you you use in social work, at least in America is you say that these people are experiencing this, not that they are this. Oh it's a good point. Yeah, that somebody is experiencing homelessness or experiencing poverty, not that they are

the poverty or they are homeless. And it's like you know those people that are experiencing stab wounds and stuff that kind. Yeah, okay, it's equally painful problem a lot of times. But just as a you know, point of interest. But yeah, and just because just because somebody's poor doesn't I mean, I don't because you don't die, you don't

make that much money. But one of the things is Joe said, is when you're an advocate of these things and you really want to go after something, one of the things that you'll see pointed out a lot is you'll see you'll see behaviors. So eating behaviors will get pointed at drinking behaviors and alcohol is what I'm getting at here will be pointed at, and smoking and drugs, so those those are things to get pointed out a lot as well. It's this group that does that which

is not right. But that's why, that's why I say that. I like so much every researcher that just went so far to just obliterate this thing. That's good, you know, because it is it's so easy to just say, even as somebody who's trying to deal with this in their city, to say, well, it's just those poor people, it's their fault. We don't have to do anything. There's not actually anything wrong. It's just these poor people. They are all their fault and if their lifestyle, they just live that way and

then they die early and that's fine. So I'm glad to hear that most researchers think that's bunk. Yeah, there's bunk. Speaking of some bunk. Can we get onto the next theory? I just wanted to point out the other The other instance where this kind of association has made is in the link between poverty and crime, which is a very popular theory. Absolutely not based on anything. Yeah, yeah, I mean not at all. I mean there ain't no link,

I mean no causal link anyway. Yeah, yeah, I agree. Yeah, it's just a bunch of people want to come up with a reason that, like, you know, get the government to throw a bunch of money at poverty. Yeah. So theory number two, Yeah, I actually put this in. I put some of the theories in here in very specific orders because I figured we have a lot of fun with them. I like this one because I think it

might apply to us too. So the next theory that we have is that it is due to vitamin D deficiency, meaning okay, well, if you ever look at the weather for that area you hear about in in England, it is gloomy, it is gray, it is rainy. You don't hear about how sunny and warm it is all the time. So it's an it's it's a very easy anecdote to make, and you actually only ever see it refer to anecdotally, always see or it could be this, and then they

go on to the next thing. They never actually explain it. My total problem with this theory is if it was vitamin D deficiency, we should see this in other places, namely where we live as a giant part of Russia. Yeah, where this should be happening all the time, where it's cold and cloudy and crutty, well a lot of the time, you know, I think they could they could answer this one.

And they need to select a thousand residents of Glasgow and just grab him, you know, put him in calicars and take them somewhere sunny and just make them live there for fifty or six Do you know how they do it is they just put vitamin D in the drinking water. And that's what would be another thing to do. I think you can do that, right, they do it before. Yeah, well but they're different, I mean, you know, the different molecules, and also they don't do that here. So calm down.

Like I like vitamin D efficiency because I I once head a doctor who said, well, if you're gonna live in Portland, you should definitely take at least five milligrams vitamin D a day year round. And I thought, Okay, I guess I could do that. Okay, okay, And I'm down on the whole vitamin thing, Okay, not buying it. So let's move to the next theory, which is poor diet equals poor health, which logically makes sense and we

kind of talked about that under poverty. Well we did in a different way, right, but in a different way because this this does actually come to some of the stuff. This is where some of the stuff that Devon was talking about actually comes in. And there's there's a couple of different ways that this can be earned. Um, it is a known fact that people in Glasgow do have greens available to them, but they don't eat them as often.

So in other words, it's it's not that the healthy food isn't available, it's that it is not chosen interesting, and that's across all different socio demographics as an average Okay, well we're talking. We are talking in averages. So that would be something interesting to check out, would be to go to go to grocery stores in Glasgow and check out the vegetable apartment. You would expect it to be smaller, significantly smaller than in other cities because of the line demand.

And then you would also expect that that that would probably have like a cause and effect sort of situation where people would buy it less, so they'd be less available. So people would buy it less because it's less available, diminishing returns, yes, no, no, absolutely, and then and then there's the flip side, which is everybody points out you shouldn't be eating so many processed foods. Don't buy the

frozen pizzas and the burritos just because they're fast. And yeah it says it's a veggie egg roll, but it's still processed to the end degree. So that is one of the things that gets pointed at is that there's this is what's happening and if that was such a problem, then we should have huge rates of obesity and diabetes in that region in the Glasgow, except that again it's not anywhere above and beyond what would be expected of

the average. As a matter of fact, yes, the obesity rate is actually lower in Glasgow than the other cities in the in Britain. That that doesn't pan out. The math on that doesn't work. It's not necessarily any worse. Okay, I guess, yeah that's probably true. Yeah, yeah, I mean it's struggle with that. Then it's like on the flip side, it's like, does that mean that you actually have a

lot of malnourished people? Right? If you don't have a lot of obese people, but we know that they aren't eating, well, does that mean that actually the people who should be obese are just malnourished, and so that's something else that's going on there. But that seems like that would be like the first thing that you would do as a research scientist to saying, oh, look at how malnourished these people are. Although I would agree with that to argue against myself, I also don't think that a lot of

people realize that they're malnourished necessarily. I think if in terms of mild cases of malnourishment, obviously, right, we're not talking like African children who are literally starving to death. We're talking about adults who are just living on food they shouldn't be living on, not getting the nutrients they should be. You just feel kind of tired and run

down and grumpy and you know all that stuff. But I don't know that you would necessarily go to the doctor and the doctor would say, well, what exactly are you eating? Oh, you might be malnoursed. That that would be the kind of thing that would come out in Uh, it's self reported happiness is one of the things. That's one of the things that you'll say are if they do study that, it's one of the things that is

studied and one of the things that has asked. But the funny thing about self reported happiness is that people almost always, as an average, unless there's, you know, a giant meltdown in the area, I think they report on average something like six and a half to eight. Yeah, it's no range. So unless the city has just burned down, everybody's like, yeah, seven. So okay, this is um. I'm going to use some anecdote that has nothing to do with this to prove a point I have had Tonight's

my entire life. I hear ringing in my ears far yeah, all the time, as for literally as long as I can remember. And I thought, literally until like five years ago, that was a thing that everybody had. No I genuinely did. I thought everybody they have had this conversation. So I think there's also some argument to be made. I think that's a bit of human nature. I think a lot of people kind of feel that way, especially awkward people, especially uh, you know, people from the United Kingdom who

are stereotypically awkward. I'm kidding, I'm sorry, no, but I think that's a human Part two is to just say, well, maybe I feel tired, but maybe this is just how people feel. I don't know, and if a lot of people around you are feeling that way, I'm just going to keep arguing. You guys, stop me. So I think they just need to give them all a lot of

itemins clear it all up. It's possible. But is there is there any evidence that actually people in Glasgow eat any worse than people in say Chicago or London or Manchester. I can see yeah, no, I mean it's again, if they were eating that badly, it should show up in other very easy to identify health issues. But but those things that they're looking for specifically aren't showing up. So that's why it appears to not be such a poor

diet issue. Now, part of the diet is, of course, like we talked about, there is the consideration of how much do people drinking smoke. We talked about the fact that people in Glasgow appear to actually drink less than the other British cities. Maybe that's the problem we also have in there, something we briefly touched on in the beginning, and this is also it kind of got lumped into the diet, but that's drug use. Turns out the drug of choice is of all things heroin, What do you

mean of all things? It's like literally the most addictive thing you could ever do. It's the worst damn thing that you could ever do, because people do well, I don't know, people who get on heroin to have a pretty hard time and it it rides them for a lot longer. People can go a lot longer falling down the well to hit bottom, at least in the people

that I've known. Then people on meth because tweakers are easy to spot and they usually burn out and get themselves caught pretty fast, whereas it's people on heroin, it's kind of a you know, it's chasing the dragon. I believe it's what is what they refer to it as. But either way, I mean, both of those drugs they kill people, they do terrible things to and that there are things that get looked at. Eence that people in Glasgow do more hair I wanted other people, not that

I can find. I mean, drugs are an issue. If we if we go back to that stat from the beginning with the excess deaths, yeah and under it was good memory. So I mean obviously there's something going on. Well, it is true. I mean heroin is Whitely touted as literally the most addictive drug. I'm not I'm not just like saying that. The thing they do studies on it. It's you know, people get addicted way faster to heroine than they do to most other drugs, and especially if

there is a higher usage. Again we're saying we don't actually know if there's a higher usage or not, but it seems like, you know, four of your friends are doing it and they seem fine, Well, maybe you'll try it too, because you know your life's not going so great and you want to high. So that addiction can

kind of you know, snowball, Yeah, that much greater. Yeah, No, it's I I've known several people who have managed to kick it, and both of them were deathly afraid of it, and one of them to the point that of getting addicted to anything that for years she wouldn't take any medication. And it turned out years later she was you know, found out through health issues what had actually done. And I mean, you know, she was on it for only

a couple of years. So stuff does. And that's part of the reason that I bring up the heroine is that it can have a long range effects. So even if somebody does it for a couple of years and then is lucky enough to kick it, gets the help they need and gets off of it. It still can have done the damage that nobody knows right away, and then five, ten, twenty years down the line, those effects

wear their ugly head. Yeah and again. But again it does seem like you know, I mean, they know they do demographic studies on is this area, you know, the Scotland capital of Heroin. I mean, it may very well be, but that seems like something they would mention. Yeah, I don't. I don't see any evidence to that. No, I don't either, But but it's it's the drug that you get that always gets brought up. So that's why I wanted to bring it up, so that we're not leaving anything behind. Okay.

Another thing that seems to be killing a lot of people as murder. Yes, yeah, it used to be in the murder capital of Western Europe. He was at one point. Yeah, yeah, but now some murder has gone down. I understand quite, but it was it was murders that were guns are illegal, so they can't have a gun there, so it was knife things or beatings and stuff like that. So I'm just like for people in the US, when you hear murder capital, we always automatically assume that they were shooting everybody,

which is not the case. I just want to get that on the table so we know what we're talking about, put it into proper context. I mean, people can get illegal guns. There are murders, sarcastic air quotes. It's not as rampant. Yeah, on the ship for possession, I should say possession of firearms is not nearly as rampant or prevalent as it is here. I think two of the three of us have guns in our home. Yeah, so it's pretty I mean, it's pretty strong statistic not to

say that, you know, all Americans are like, I have guns. Yeah, Well there's Texas, but there's that, and then there's the rest of the United States. But I mean I think that's that's a pretty fair statistical thing. Yeah. Here in the West, I mean a lot of people own guns. I know towns of people that own guns. Yeah, but I mean that's about what. Let's move on to another theory. All right, let's move on to a awesome theory. This is another one you just kept in here for fun.

Is I didn't totally did uh, and that is that the theory is the cause is an environmental factor and that's temperature. I'm not buying this one. Let me tell people about first time. Come on, man, don't don't don't build it up then tear it down. Is what you told me before. Okay, Okay, So it turns out that it is actually pretty chilly in in Glasgow in the winter. The highs as an average are five degrees celsius or forty four degrees fahrenheit five degrees celsius. I'm just doing

a little writh of take that sounds right. Put it into the Google calculator. I know how to I know how to convert. Did you do it on March Fools Day? Okay? So that's that's the winter highs and the summertime average temperature is nineteen degrees c or sixty six degrees f. Yeah, but like what is it in Moscow? Like let's talk about so right, and Moscow is much larger. So if I'm sorry not to like tear this down before you

builds as I could do. But if you if you're gonna argue that it's an environmental factor and that it's it's just too cold all the time. There are so many other places that you would be seeing things like this happening, I guess. I mean it's possible that people just don't notice in Russia. I know, I can agree with your point that again, this is just like the Yeah I checked. I checked just three countries randomly that are way north and colder Iceland, Norway in Finland and yeah,

Iceland life expectancy eighty three years old. Norway I think it was about eighty two and a half, and I think it is that what it is. Okay, Yeah, temperature now, because they're women are also more beautiful cold. I'm sorry, I'm trying really hard not to offend anyone. I didn't mean that in an offensive way. Scottish women are very beautiful. Scottish women are very beautiful. I mean every country has

the most beautiful women, that's true. Yeah, let's get a move on now after that debacle to the next we have to actually have two environmental factors theories. The second one is pollution. Yeah, so as we talked about, we had the shipyards, we had the chemical processing um and it looks like you know what I was right, it was textiles. They don't specify exactly what the textiles were in some of the stuff that I was reading. But we talked about this. They're not exactly clean. They're not

really good about keeping the city around them nice. They dump everything in the river. I'm saying historically, not today. I'm sorry, Can I share it today? I learned today? I learned that Victoria doesn't have a waste treatment plant Victoria, BC. No, they just dump it right into the river. Are you serious? Yeah, they dump it into the harbor or what the harbor? Yeah, apparently apparently the state of Washington is considering like a no travel ban on them to say, like, you have

to start treating this stuff. Anyway, that's my Today. I learned some crazy poop. Yeah, I've been I find that hard to believe because I've been to Victoria quite a few times and I've never seen poop floating in the harbor. Yeah, but you can't smell anything. Well, you've been there, did you smell anything? No? But I was drunk. Okay, actually it wasn't. That's just my go to excuse. Okay, Well,

let's keep going with this, uh, with this pollution. So if that was if pollution was responsible for the higher mortality, rate, then you would expect that we would see higher levels of cancers, which cancer does kill at a higher level than the average expected. One of the things I kept seeing called out is they always said lung cancers, but they never said exactly what it was. So I was always curious if that might be something to do with it.

Lung cancers plural or lung cancer. Uh, you know that's now that you specify, I'm not sure which it was. Let's just say lung cancer. I believe there is one. More more than one there is, I mean there's multiple there's muth cancers that can be in your lungs. Then that might be. As much as I love our British friends, they have different ways of phrasing things sometimes, and so I'm not always sure if it's just phrasing for the way I would normally expect it to be, or if

it's something slightly different. So I wasn't positive. But again, how do we have any evidence that pollution there is stronger or no, not really than anywhere else, certainly not more than Southeast Portland. Yeah, yeah, well, I mean it's London. At one time was considered one of the filthiest cities in the world, and it's super clean China and well I'm just thinking about in the UK and then you go up to Glasgow and it's pretty clean. Yeah, I'm sure the pollution back back in the day was a

lot worse. Yeah. I mean, if we look at the at the nineteenth century or even the twentieth century, they didn't care. It was stuff everywhere, you know, it was it was the cold snow, I believe it. It was the ash was so thick that it was like snow. But that's I don't think that is that dirty anymore. And I guess this it feels like this isn't easy

to prove or disprove theory. You just take some samples of the air, and if it's super contaminated you can start to say, well that might be a reason, or it's not super contaminated, so that may not be a reason, you know. Yeah, but also it's not there not strong evidence. There's not. And it's also not as though lung cancer is the thing that is killing this many more people.

I mean, it's it's cancer in general is higher, but its general that are higher in general to like alcohol, is that well yeah, but I was gonna say it's if it's cancer in general, then you can't find as easily a specific cause because certain things tend to cause certain kinds of cancers and other things tend to cause other kinds of cancers. But if it's if it's cancers in general, then it makes me think that it might not just be from one factor, which in this theory

would be the pollution. But but but but also the other thing is that people aren't just dying of cancer, where they're dying about a whole lot of other sects too. So yeah, and even if I mean, I guess I don't know how you necessarily could find this out, but you know, there is certainly the the idea that but just because you have cancer, you can die of something else. Right, you have cancer in your heart gives out, you die of that heart attack, So your cause of death is

the heart attack, but you still had cancer. Uh, but I don't know if that's tracked in these records, So I don't know if that's taken into effect that these people also had. Can I think cause of death is cause of death. So if you crash your car and die and you just happen to have a terminal disease,

they say your cause of death vehicle in that case. Yes, but doesn't that seem like that would be really important factor to find out for Glasgow in terms of the Glasgow effect if somebody were that like, even if you crashed your car at seventeen and you had a terminal case of cancer, it's important that you have the terminal case of cancer just as much as it is that your cause of death was a car crash. But that's

that's the problem, is that, right? And this is what this is what's now starting to go on, is that they're starting to have to do like what you're suggesting is they have to they're having to go deeper because they've got the surface data the easy numbers, and the

easy numbers aren't making sense. And so yeah, I mean that is one of the things there's Uh, there was a report that was due out at the beginning of It's one of the reasons actually held off on this story for a while because I wanted to get that report and as of you know, this is March now when we're recording and report out, so I you know, I was really hoping that there was gonna be that shining answering. But I think it's likely this. The report

will come out next week probably after we're done. We'll follow up, we'll do a short Okay, so pollution I think is out. Yeah, yeah, I think I'm right. So let's go ahead and let's move on down the line to our next one, which is again a Devin special. It is food scarcity and then the stress levels which

are which are notably higher in this town. Okay, Well, the reason that this is brought up is because we just we talked about earlier is the the amount of people who are unemployed and who are on public assistance. So chances are if they have any other reason, the things that they want to spend their money on, whether it be booze, smokes, naked women, whatever the case may be, if they've got some other vice, some other vice, then

they are going to be spending money on that. So therefore they're not going to be spending as much on food, and that's gonna then cascade down through a household, because if the household doesn't have as much money, then everybody's you know, a little unsure of where their next meal is going to come from. So that's where this is, That's what this is based on. Yeah, I have to say that being on the doll is not healthy in many sense, many senses, it's not good for your self esteem,

and it's not you know. The thing about having a job that's good besides you don't have an income, is that it gives you reason to sort of like stay on top of yourself, you know. I mean, you can't be you can't be sleeping until three in the afternoon every day, and you can't be starting drinking at ten in the morning. It you got to rself in order. Negative cycles can can manifest your well I mean. And

then the other thing too, that happens often. I know that I've I've gone through this when I've been on or under employed. You know, right now, I have a steady job, however much I like it or not. But I wake up at the same time every day. I go to sleep about the same time every day. I have a routine. When I'm not employed, I wake up whenever I go to sleep, whenever it starts to mess with the sleep cycle. And and there are a lot of studies about how a messed up circadian rhythm can

really mess with your body. And that's that's another thing too, is if you don't have the schedule that you need to stick to, at least me. I think you guys would agree. It's really easy to just slip out of that and then it just starts to kind of with your body. And the last time I was out of work, it was quite well back, but it was amazing how quickly I adapted to staying up till two every night

and slipping intil ten every morning. So easy. Well, let's let's talk about the I've got some stuff here about the food shortage cycle. Actually, since I've been yambering on this whole time, Devin, do you mind reading this quote? The cycle of having enough food followed by food shortage is thought to play a direct role in dietary compromise, accumulation of visceral fat and weight gain. Inadequate nutrient nutrition and weight gain play a direct role in the development

of chronic diseases. Stress plays an active role in metabolism chronic disease. Animal models suggest mice exposed to stress conditions in the presence of high fat, high sugar food secrete stress hormones and insulin, which leads to a subcutaneous fat and weight gain just by being near the high fat, high sugar food I don't know exacts as two means are eating it. Okay, okay. Quote. Food insecurity is inconsistently

associated with overweight and obesity among women. However, several studies have found a significant association between food and security and diabetes and poor diabetes management. For example, a significantly higher percentage of adults with diabetes from food insecure households report difficulty following a diabetic diet, decreased confidence in their ability to manage their diabetes, and a higher score for emotional

distress related to diabetes. Food insecurity during pregnancy is associated with higher levels of stress, anxiety, and depression, just stational weight gain and over twice the risk of developing gestational diabetes compared with low income food secure women. Unquote, thank you, You're welcome. But that that that does play into some of the stuff that you were bringing up earlier. It's the more articulate way to say all the things I

was just saying. What sound more smarter, more smarter, more better? Steve, all right, so let's uh, I mean we and we already know as we talked about the stress is excess amounts of stress is bad. Your body is meant to deal with stress to a certain degree. But if you go ahead and add in lots and lots of it, you're in what I would I would just say, let's call it fight or flight mode all the time that high blood pressure is gonna happen, heart attacks are gonna happen, uh,

circulation breathing issues. I mean, these are just kind of a handful of the things that are going to happen. So it plays havoc on the body and the immune system. Yeah, I mean it's very well known scientifically. They've looked at it and they figured it out, and yeah, it's a bad thing for you. But has anybody done, um, any surveys on food insecurity in Glasgow? Um? So the reports that I read, it's kind of presumed that there's a portion of the households that are food insecure and there's

a portion that are food secure. What the ratio is and what those numbers are. I didn't see that specifically called out, but that may have been because I didn't. I wasn't on page sixty eight and one specific table. It's also it's also hard since we're talking about cross generational stuff, right, We're talking about how a parents food

insecurity can affect a child. For instance, that data certainly probably wasn't really I mean, that wasn't a thing that people really thought about in previous generations, especially if we start talking about a couple of generations back. I mean, I'm so, I'm third second generation from my grandma, right, and she was born in like nineteen hundred, and that's a long time ago, and there's one person in between me and her, and when she was growing up, they

just called it being hungry. It wasn't food insecurity and stress levels and all that stuff. And so when we start talking about getting just a couple of generations back, those studies aren't being done, so we probably don't have and the records are are not there, and frankly, like it's kind of an embarrassing thing. I have to say it to somebody. Yeah, yeah, we don't always have food. Yeah no, I mean as a as an adult, Yeah,

it's just not something talk about now. People don't want to talk about that, or you may think you are. You may say I'm doing the best I can, and yeah, it's enough, but it turns out it's you know, mac and cheese from or a half portion every other day. Listen, that's what we've got. We have food. I mean, there's there's a whole I mean, I don't want to go too far down this because there's a whole number of ways that that can play out, but that does have

as you were pointing out, that long term effect. One of the long term effects that I actually saw brought up in some of the research is epigenetics. And I don't know if you guys, do you guys know much about epigenetics. I read it and I'm okay, well, then I did that. I took the reading and I've boiled it down here because it's DNA stuff and that is

above my pay grade. I admit this right now. But the way that I understand it is that in the super simplified explanation is epogenetics would be the study of environmental effects on the body and whether or not it influences certain genes to turn on or off. So, in other words, how does at a at a base level, how does the body react, and then what does that

do to it? And it's future generations. I've seen some actually well, and it's it's interesting because I've seen some studies that say, um that at times it can make people prone to obesity and diabetes, and then at other studies that say, if it's time correctly, and that's that that, by the way, is not necessarily that person, but their offspring or their second generation forward, or it can if it hits in the right time, it can actually make their offspring or the second as well as or the

second generation have factors that make them healthier individuals, so they're less prone to overeating or more prone to overeating. So it's it's a really for me, it's kind of a gray area. But it's also just that right. I mean, it affects literally every part. I mean, but when you look at how it reacts. So I mean, we've all I've done this where I've gone and eaten something and said, well, that's all I need to eat. And then I've gone and said I've eaten that and that's all I needed

to eat. But I'm going to eat more anyway. And there are, because of some genetic predispositions, times where there will be people who always feel like feed, like feel like they need to eat more. I mean, I've got a cat who always sits the cat bowl, even though she gets enough food every day, sits at the capitol for six hours there the food bull staring at me, like, dude, I totally need more food. It's but that is to a degree, can be dictated at the genetic level, and

that's where this is coming from. Yeah, I mean, like I was kind of saying, it's not just obesity, It's not just that. I can also you can also predisposition your kids almost anything, right, I mean one of the things they talked about two is to be less able to handle stress, you know, just because of the way, which is one of those scary things as a woman, right, you're kind of like, oh my god, I could literally ruin my child's life by just breathing something, you know.

So that's but that's terrifying. But it's also might get they might but so but that seems like the sort of thing also that it would come out and studies. But but that's the problem is that epi genetics they're just learning how to study some of this stuff. So it's very it's very difficult to say, well, let's just look back, ye And and as you said, it's hard, it's really hard to go historically and say, well, this family was suffering from food and security or extra stress

levels or whatever. And you were saying that there's there is a really high unemployment rates high there, but yeah, and also there again the the murder rate. Now that'll

that'll stress you a little bit too. Yeah. Well initially, well, and I think the thing that we need to look at you actually we're starting to talk about this a little bit devon is the effect is that if we look at current generation of children and maybe how that's going to play forward on them, because um, if so, I pulled some stats on children in two thousand and six, more than six of the children uh in the Greater Glasgow area we're from families that were out of work.

So that's as we talked about the insecurity the stress there in ninety between nine six to two thousand and eight, there was a trend in what they referred to as looked after children, which means that that as children who are under the care of nanny's nurseries, going to preschool, talking to foster care and foster this is this is looked after children. This is this means this is state are aren't able to take care of them, and basically the state has taken them in and taken them away

from their their family. That's a lot. Yeah, so that that well, it's it's the number. Yeah. So in two thousand and eight there were forty hundred looked after children in the Greater Glasgow area. So this is a generation that is their children. So we don't know, if you know, once they go into that situation, does that mean there're no longer food insecure because you're being looked after, Whereas in the past maybe that wasn't available so they just had to I guess I might. I know, I just

rolled my eyes that. But I think that that comes from just at least the system in America. I don't know how it is in Glasgow. I don't know how it is in Scotland, but just the foster care system or social services in America that just because child is in foster care doesn't mean that they are no longer food insecure or that that looked I understand it's deemed to be more able to take care, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they're going to be out of the

woods with that sort of stuff. But again I don't know how it works in Glasgow. I don't know if it means they actually are getting three square healthy meals a day and the help they need and the sleep they need, and they're also not stressed out about the fact that they aren't with their parents anymore. I really the only way the boots on the ground is you know, the people who were there and in those situations, those

are the only ones who could answer that. And I imagine that that is Again, this is where I feel like the next step in the research process is that they're probably going to start drilling into these things, because again they're they're doing the high level numbers. Drill down that deep. I mean, okay, if it's if it really is stress from food and security and all that stuff, just look at the family history of people who die young,

and that's all you gotta do. That's not that, but that's not that easy to find, especially after they died. You need to get to them right before they die. Well, I think that I guess the good news about this is that it's we're aware of it, and they are. They're taking care of the data right now. Right there's a lot more tracking happening right now trying to figure out what they're really trying to figure out what's going on.

They'll probably do all the testing that would be required from day one, but it's taken eight to ten years to get to the understanding level that we have at this point, so it's hard to say how long we're it's going to take generations before, you know, before it's like let's try this that worked or crap that didn't work. So it's probably be an industry. Yeah, but it will be.

I mean it has to be. You have to study that generation as they come up and see if that generation also continues to die on average young, and if they do, then you start saying, okay, well we tracked all of this stuff, so what's the common threat here, which means that if you've got a bunch of children who are under you know, let's say twelve and under, that means we've got to wait another seventy or eighty years before we're going to see if any of the

things that are being tried today have an influence. So it is literally an entire generation has to go by, and I don't mean one generation in the next. So one breeds and they create their next, it's before they live their entire life cycle, and good news is it's much shorter for them. Don't look at me like that. It's just I mean we'll get it six years earlier. Okay, let's move forward. I do have one more and this

is actually a really easy one, um. And it's actually it's it's a hard one because A it's hard to track and be it's just hard to think about. Is that it's there is a certain amount of cultural alienation that goes on, and that is keep the stiff upper lip, don't tell anybody your problems. You can just handle it on your own. Yeah, and I, you know, I don't reach out for help. So then people feel alienated and they're they're stuck and there they've got to deal with

it themselves. So that could be part of it. There's also there is, um, there is an issue with suicide, and there there are suicides. Most of the suicide I seemed to be linked back to drug and alcohol problems and I don't know if that's correct or not, but that's where the data is leading people. I forget how but how much higher is suicide in Glasgow than everywhere else in the UK. He didn't have that number. I had that number and I don't have it anymore. It

is higher, right, it is higher, Yes, significantly higher. It's fifteen Let's say it's it's a it's a significant enough number that it gets raised. So that's the cause of death. I mean it's not that, oh I jumped off a bridge, but my cause of death was cancer because I had it, as previously mentioned, right, So that's enough. I was dying because I had cirrhosis and my liver was about to give out. So yeah, I mean, we don't know. We don't have that because again the data. I'm sorry, I

don't know the answer to this. I don't know if either of you know the answer to this. But does Glasgow have any kind of right to life? No right idea with you. I never even would have thought to look at that because I wonder because it's technically suicide. But I don't know what happens with that. Yeah, I don't know. I mean Europe tends to be a little a little more flexible about that than conservative America is.

So I don't know, okay, I I don't know if that would count account for Also, if if there is this much higher instance in terminal cases of things, if the reason you know, if you stay, well, okay, I'm gonna end my life because I don't want to deal with this. I don't know if that has something to do with the suicide, right, it's it's but it's an interesting thing. It's intriguing that more burger, more suicide, but

also more cancer and more just health problems in general. Everything. Yeah, And the screwy part is it's more of everything in general. So I would say that it's could be one of two things. Uh, and I don't buy any of these series, but might have been to your poverty or any of that crap. It's all crap. Either a migration of a significantly different, genetically different population into the area at some point, like around the turn of the twentieth century, or a

change in their water supply. Um, you know, they might have started started sourcing their water supply somewhere else. I mean, hey, I probably checked the water. I think that it's probably

a combination of several of these things. I also think that you're the migration is a good thing to point out because until what was it the I mean, in terms of massive migrations of people from genetically different areas, you didn't see a whole lot of that happening until I guess maybe the less hundred years on a grand scale. And so it may be that the people who were there all so genetically similar that that is part of it.

We won't and we won't see that change until after we've got you know this, I'm just gonna call it the new gene pool introduction is then going to bring in the different genes that are then going to make it so that you're not as prone to getting one

of these things that everybody seems to be having. Yeah, but I guess when we're really talking about that, right, we're just talking about the percentages above average, Right, so we're saying the population shift was about population shift, which is is significant statistically, but realistically, I mean with a lot of the like refugee migrations that are happening right now, I'm sure that you see cities that are changing population

demographics like that these days. And so it would be interesting to see was there something like a famine or something, you know, within a hundred years of when we're seeing this that pushed of the population to be genetically different that just happened to have a shorter lifespan anyway, shorter anticipated lifespan, or you know the fact that they were fleeing a famine and they had food and security and they've passed that down to generations and that may work

itself out. I mean, those are all things that I think, to us, because we're so used to having the Internet and all of this information, seems like it would be really easy to find out. But I think probably that's just almost impossible. Yeah, it's difficult, but it's it could go.

I mean, I am I realized I'm about to do what you just did earlier, which is I'm about to question my own theory because it's been seen before where when you get an influx of people who were genetically different, and let's say that they were fleeing an area where

they always had a bit of a food scarcity. So from an a genetic level, they were inclined to acquire more body fat because that is the way you survive, and suddenly to be put into this food rich environment or over rich environment, that could then push them into some other unhealthy spectrum. I mean, I also don't know. Think I throw my hands up because it's like I'm damned if I do it, I damned if I don't. Yeah, I think I think that really the key to this

is genetics. They need to just like you know, you know, grab a bunch of these. I don't know how to call glass legions. I don't know, so I'll just say people from Glasgow, for example, size. I think they need to like and they need to like look at start looking at their jeans and seeing what makes if they're actually different, because I haven't bet than they are, I think, And it's probably just like I said, due to some migration or the plutonium processing facility things. The Scottis showmer

Simpson or no, it's cousin Willie. That's who it is. Groundskeeper Willie, ground groundskeeper will He didn't actually do any plutonium stuff. He took care of the school. Yeah, that's because he got out of Glasgow. Yeah, as smart as can be. Well, uh, let's go ahead and give folks here, because that's really all we've got in our theories and are debating here. We've got some pertinent details. As always. We have our website, which is Thinking Sideways podcast dot com.

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