Live on Sky News. This is Sharry.
Good Evening. Just days out from the federal election, Anthony Alberzi picks a fight with a global ratings agency. How he's put EGO above the national interest. Plus the Prime Minister has the audacity to accuse Dutton of lacking courage by coming on Sky News at night. Well, if only Albanezi had enough metal to front up and face the tough questions. Thugish labor lined unionists gate crash Dutton's event with school children, But will labor apologize? And how the
national polls are getting this election campaign wrong? Well that's according to one season political analyst who'll be on tonight. And it's another massive show tonight every night this week. I told you tonight we've got James Patterson, Ray Hadley, Steve Price, Andrew Carswell and Cameron Milner. Now just days out from the federal election, and Anthony Albanizei has picked
a fight with a highly reputable global ratings agency. The Prime Minister has scoffed and ridiculed the non partisan agency for daring to raise concerns about its massive pre election off budget spending. It's never ending billions of dollars in election announcements to buy voters. Now, this should be a wake up call for the Prime Minister, but instead he's
mocked the agency. It's an utterly astonishing response. Now to recap, the Ratings Agency Standard and Pause has issued a warning that Australia's Triple A credit rating is at risk because of out of control spending. And this includes over one hundred billion dollars of spending that it hasn't actually been budgeted for. It's on the NBN Snowy Hydro Clean Energy Finance Corporate Ration, the pledge to pay sixteen billion dollars off every student's XTEP, twenty percent of every student's XTET,
among many other promises. Now, this is a serious warning. And here's what the Ratings Agency told Sky News Business Now.
And what we are seeing is a lot of spending across both parties and minor parties as well, and we're really curious as to how it's going to be funded. And that's the real issue for US. Deficits of two to two and a half percent of GDP are consistent of the Triple A, but are they going to be there? Are they going to be my three or four percent post GFC levels? We don't know the answer to that yet.
So the agency says debt funded election spending was pushing up government outlays to the highest since World War Two, and extremely serious warning. But bizarrely the Prime Minister isn't taking it seriously, he scoffed when asked a question about it on the ABC last night.
All of this adds up to what Standard and Pauses saying is that there's too much spending and it's putting Australia's Triple A credit rating at risk. Well there's no suggestion, frankly, the Triple A credit rating is there.
So the Prime Minister's claiming there's no issue when the ratings Agency was so concerned it issued a public statement in black and white days out from the election. Former Treasurers Peter Costello and Scott Morrison Josh Fredenberg I used to go to New York and sit down with the agencies and argue their case in official meetings. They treated the agencies with respect. They'd furnish them with information, explain their economic plan and thus they managed to keep Australia's
roll gold rating. They certainly didn't mock the agency publicly, as Albanzy went on to do in his very next sentence. And you wouldn't be surprised at this, because Albanezy isn't a serious, sophisticated player. He's juvenile. And he bizarrely went on, as you're about to hear, to deride the financial analysts at this respectable global ratings agency and then try to deflect his own economic mess by blaming the opposition.
They must have been beside themselves whoever wrote that particular report when the coalition left us with a seventy eight billion dollar deficit, we turned that into a twenty two billion dollar surplus.
Now, two things about that statement. Firstly, it's factually inaccurate. The final budget outcome for the coalition's time in office was thirty two billion, not seventy eight billion that he keeps lying about. And in fact, Friedenberg left the budget in a position for there to be a surplus, which he achieved through strong labor market and higher than expected
commodity prices. Now, Albinizy was even corrected on this by feel in the nine debate, so he knows it's not true, and yet he still knowingly continues to lie about it. And Trudy McIntosh and other journalists picked him up on this again today. Still he wouldn't concede anything now. Secondly, that derision that you heard there of the agency is unbefitting for a prime minister and it could also backfire with S and P if they were line ball on
whether to downgrade. Alberanze's comments are more likely to make them do so. His glass jaw has potentially threatened Australia's national interest. As former Treasury official Spiro Premaitis wrote today in The finn Review, Albinzi is a leader who shrugs off credible criticism. Is not reassuring the public, but is either demonstrating that he doesn't understand the problem or is choosing to ignore it. A typical response from Albanezi to
bury his head in the sound. And Spiro writes, when a major credit ratings agency sounds the alarm on a government's fiscal trajectory, a serious national leader listens, They explain, they reassure, they set out a plan, he says. Prime Minister Anthony Albaneze did none of these things. Instead, he mocked the report's authors, dismissed the warning, and pointed to a temporary budget surplus, as if that were the end
of the matter. It isn't an Australians deserve better. A strong piece from Spiro and he says this fails the test of leadership. And thankfully the knightlyes. Latika Burke pulled Anthony Alberzi up on his disrespectful comments about S and P Today.
Prime Minister last night you said quote they must have been beside themselves whoever wrote that report. Now, if Peter Dutton questioned an independent expert in the way you did last night, you would be going full tropo and saying he was Marga or Trump. So why is it okay for you to question the independence of experts? And Treasurer Jim charm was if you lose Australia's triple A rating, will that disqualify you from being Australia's next Prime minister?
Thanks Letika.
What I was doing last night was pointing out a fact that we have been responsible economic managers and if you compare and if you compare what our position was of two budget surpluses, compare that after we under the Labor government, was what delivered the triple A credit rating?
Is talking about your future record, PM, it's talking about the future of yesterday's.
In fact, the coalision the triple A credit rating despite the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression, and Albanizi has now put it at risk during a time of stability. Albinizi also ignores the fact that he's increased structural spending and that this has exactly debated inflation and now this
spending threatens our triple A rating. The night These editorial says that, in other words, you can't ramp up public spending to stratostraphic levels to disguise a recession, then rash it it up even more with no plan and how to pay for it without expecting some long term consequences. Somehow, in Albanesi's upside down world, this is the way out of a growing government debt crisis. Give people more stuff
for free and call it responsible economic management. The Nightly says it's an absurd contradiction, devoid of logic, and as you know, the Prime Minister prefers to blame inflation on overseas factors, on wars and Donald Trump.
That's why, through everything the world has thrown at Australia over the past three years, the worst global inflation in four decades, the biggest international energy crisis in half a century and even now trade tensions fueling new global economic uncertainty. Our government has faced these global challenges the Australian way.
The budget black hole that Labour's created is truly alarming. But if we lose our triple A credit rating, this could lead to higher debt servicing costs, slower growth and even potentially higher interest rates. Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor warned about some of this here on the show last night.
Now S and P is telling us the rating agency that there's real risks now to our ratings. If our rating has dropped from triple A, we will see impacts on interest rates in this country, impacts on government interest rates but also interest rates for the economy more generally. And that's a very dangerous place to be taking Australia.
Ye downgrade would be a vote of no confidence in the Albanese government, and the Prime Minister can't just shrug it off and pretend there's nothing to see here, as he's inclined to do.
Now.
When I spoke to Peter Dutton last night, he told me about the hostile press pack he's had following him around this campaign.
I just think they're so biased and many of them just activists not journalists, that their position becomes counterproductive and they're playing to a particular audience, to a Green voter. And frankly, as the Prime Minister's demonstrated, his whole government has been about how do we please the inner city green voter in Sydney and Melbourne. That's why he's taken
such a soft stance in relation to anti Semitism. The left wing media frankly, by polling day I think will be counterproductive in what they're doing now.
This is really something you can't argue with. Dutton has been met with far more aggressive, argumentative, antagonistic questions from the journalists on his campaign bus, and in truth, their opinions masquerading as questions in many cases. Here's one journalist, this is Channel seven reporter Isabelle Mullen.
Can you disclose that you were the beneficiary of a family trust in twenty fourteen? So, Dutton, aren't you being tricky with the truth not to answer today? Aren't you being tricky with your own truth at the moment? And your candidate has described China as a grub of a country and said feminists were to blame for Trump's loss in twenty twenty.
What do you think of those comments?
Is his enthusiastic support for Donald Trump a problem though, mister Dutton? Is his coat.
Now that's only matched by ABC journalist Evelyn Manfield.
So was that answered by mister t and a mistake?
And also was.
Your answer yesterday on wester Erusalem the mistake? Sorry?
Well you had to your office had to go and clarify it.
So was it a mistake?
No?
Happy to take you. Is it a question you want to ask? Sorry?
Just yeah, yeah, sure questions?
Can you get some of those?
If you get some of those questions answered, would you from Keir Starmers say, would you be willing to.
Change your mind? I don't have prospectively, would you be willing to change your mind?
Mister Dutton?
And of course they're not alone. Have a look at more of the same.
Which forty one thousand of them might not have a job in six weeks.
How is it that the Liberal Party has recruited so many members of a religious section for dot and fault to hand.
Out for it, whether it is how your gas plan is going to get electricity bills down, or how you're going to spend the health and education budgets. Why is there is delay on letting voters into the secret.
Mister Dunton, we don't see a lot of your softer side.
Do you think that your time as a police officer led you to have a black and white view of the world.
And Dunnan has spoken about the ab we see in the Guardian, describing them as hate media. And you can understand why the ABC is funded by the taxpay It's meant to be impartial, especially during an election campaign. But here was the reporter behind well known attacks on liberal figures targeting Dutton last night on primetime television.
Some First Nations leaders say this was part of a pattern for Peter Dutton when it comes to race. Do you think that Peter Dutton has an issue with race? We uncovered fresh details about the Dutton family's dealings and the people that they've done business with. A large proportion of the Dutton family's wealth comes from private childcare, often bought and sold through trusts.
Hardly unbiased reporting just days out from the election. I mean, if ALBN Easy had been involved in childcare business, he'd been making that a virtue of his election campaign. But Darton deals with these attacks. He takes hostile questions from the traveling press pack on a daily basis. He's used to it. But then Alban Easy dead today to mock him for supposedly not fronting up to tough questions and instead coming on Sky News.
I did the seven thirty report, Lafsata. I know that Peter Dutton is courageously showing strength by doing Paul Murray tonight for the second time in the campaign.
I'm sure that will.
Be a rigorous cross examination of their costings.
I mean Alban Easy speaking of a lack of courage is like Putin claiming he stands for peace or a lifeguard afraid to get where It is laughable. If anyone doesn't have courage to face tough questions, it's Alban Easy.
He's never had the courage to come on Sky News during prime time when the audience is highest, not with Peter Kredlin, Andrew, Paul Murray or me to answer what would truly be tough questions about the state of our economy, the cost of living crisis, national security and his gross mishandling of social cohesion and during the antisemitism crisis, which the Director General of ASIO said was the greatest threat
to life in Australia and still is. Albanezy repeatedly refused to sit down for an interview, never mind that I'm the only Jewish nightly television host in the country. And as for Paul Murray's show, on both occasions that Dutton has appeared during this election, he's faced questions from voters that he couldn't prepare for and that he didn't know in advance. That was the case of the pup test.
And it'll be the same tonight and we look forward to watching it in just under an hour's time and joinning me now to discuss all of this and more. Radio legend Ray Hadley Ray, great to see you again.
I don't fill alone in the Prime minister's non performance on Sky. He used to mock me at question time about my interrogation of Peter Dutton every Thursday. Dutton had been appearing on my radio show for probably a decade, and then when he became opposition leader away from being a minister, he appeared every Thursday. I suspect I made via my producers one hundred requests for Anthony Alberesi to
come on the program and face some tough questions. He never ever ever he's got a heart about the size of a caraway.
Seed, he never ever ever presented himself.
I'm looking forward to Peter Dutton being with Paul Murray tonight because he's a genuine, decent person and all this rubbish and God.
Blessed Latika, God bless Latika.
I ran into her at the debate that went before, and she reminded me of our past history when we both worked in the same place. And she has come many many killers meters since in terms of her professionalism and the way she put it to in them. I'm very proud of it, and I'm proud of you too. I'm proud of brave young women who are prepared to stand up to these people who don't answer the questions.
But one of the things I think, as we lead into the election on Saturday, with many millions having already voted, I just don't understand Peter's been at more petrol bowsers than an interstate truck driver, But that twenty five cents reduction, in excise, it will mean the world. It's fuel, it's diesel. The only feel that doesn't include is aviation fuel. It's a really important thing and the other thing is announced recently.
You may be aware that there will be a tax on July one and Anthony Albernezi tax on motor vehicles, particularly the trucks that are driven by the trades, and there are millions of them out there. One of them's a Forward Ranger now.
From July two.
If you want to buy yourself a Forward Ranger, it's going to cost you fourteen four hundred dollars more. If you want to buy a RAB four which is not a truck, trying to cost you about four grand more, about three thoy eight hundred dollars.
If Peter Dutton's Prime minister, that won't be happening.
I was, families understand this. Do you think no attention enough or the messages got through to them all?
No? Because of left wing media or a disgrace.
I mean, I don't need anyone to tip to me how those two young ladies from the ABC and CHANNERL seven are going to vote on start they have they haven't already they won't be voting for Peter Dutton, Come on, mate, Rather than.
It's not even about how they personally vote, it's that the work they would then produce or journalists like them in the Herald, in the Guardian and other You know, you can understand why you read articles that are so negative when those are the journalists asking the questions.
See, I've been accused and I'm happy to carry the you know, the epitaph of being a right wing shock jock.
That's what I was. I was a commentator. I was not a reporter.
I'm like, you're a commentator, like Paul Murray, like Peter Kredl, and like Andrew Bolt.
I'm a commentator. And what my.
Program was based on for nearly thirty years was my opinion, my firmly held opinion. Those people are journalists. They don't have an opinion. If they do, they've got to hide it. They must hide that opinion from view. They must be objective, not subjective. And what we saw in that excerpt or not.
The bosses think watching the press.
And maybe their bosses feel the same way about that. But at the end of the day, if you're a journalist, and I've never been a journalist, and I mean I'm not saying that bastfully, I've always been a commentator.
Well, when I was a political journalist, and I was political editor for the Daily Telegraph before that political report if the Stunday Telegraph, I didn't even vote. I wasn't even on the elector role for about fifteen years because they did take it so seriously.
Well, look, there needs to be an examination.
But you know, you can't blame the media ultimately. You know he is facing hostile questions, but you can't blame the media. And there has been a lot of the Liberal campaign could have done better, stronger, stronger attack ads. You know, if I have announcing their policies, if.
I'd have been formulated, and I would have started with the Voice three hundred and sixty million, what's named up against a wall by the Prime Minister.
All he had to do was divide the question.
The first question was should there be Indigenous recognition of the Constitution.
Yes, there should be. Then the voice.
We had the niAA, the Coalition of the Peaks, costing billions of dollars.
We didn't need another body.
So all he had to do was catch it in that way, two separate questions, and the first one would have been carried and now we won't get a crack at recognizing Indigenous people for another five Prime ministers and that's a disgrace and that's all down to Anthony Albanezi, his pig headed attitude and just on the journalists in relation to this. I know what you say is true that there have been mistakes made by the Liberal Party and the mistakes that should have been requified way way
back five weeks ago. But at the end of the day, the message getting out to the masses is coming from people with a set agenda. Asked the really difficult questions of Peter Dutton, the Dorothy dixs.
If we used to call them go to the Prime minister. That's what happens.
That is exactly what we've seen. No, I want to speak to you about capital gains tax. Unrealized capital gains tax. Now this should be a coalition scare campaign. I mean a lot of voters don't know about this.
This is people who've retired on one of them. Yeah, partially people who I'm.
Doing my best to stop you from retiring.
Rate people who have retired.
I've got to realize this unrealized capital gains it's not on your shares or your property portfolio that you sell. And when I say property portfolio, most retire res try to have some sort of investment property to keep the income coming in or shares, you're going to have to pay tax, according to Anthony Albanezi, when they increase in value, not when you realize the asset, when you sell it and you're paying capital gains for other things. These are
things you'll pay on the way through. Now it's a three million dollar limit. Now, you know, people say, well that's a lot of money, having super three million dollars. If the Greens are in coalition, which I think they would have to be for him to be Prime minister,
they want it down to two million dollars. Now, aspirational retirees over the age of sixty five or in my case seventy, who've worked their backsides off for forty five or fifty years as I have, well, it's not a large amount of money to make sure that you aren't an imposition on the taxpayer, that you are self funded and you're looking after yourself. That's the way most Australians want to live. They want to live in a way that they're not a burden on their family or on
the taxpayer. And all of a sudden, the Prime Minister in coalition with the Greens is going to jam it to these people one point eight million Australians, and those one point eight million Australians need to realize that if they haven't vaded already, they need to realize if they're a retiree, there's only one party to vote for and it's not the Labor Party nor the Greens.
No, it's hugely problematic this policy. Ray, I want to get your prediction for Saturday. This is the last time we'll see you before the election.
Well, it's hard to change horses halfway through the race. Would be indicative, I think, based on polls and even the bookmakers prices that the Prime Minister will be returned, but not a majority in minority, which means he's got to go cap in hand with the Teals and Greens and cross benches and say what do you want? And I have nightmares thinking about this. People who aren't old enough to remember. I was there on air the day that I had that agonazing speech from Tamey Winton.
Rob Ake shot for Julia Gillard.
I mean, and to think the two blakes like that determine the outcome of election. Will think about safety scamps, think about the Greens, think about these people. I mean what safety Scamps did in relation to their air man lost his life. I mean, I could never forgive it for that. I as she tried to explain that that was just disgraceful. It was absolutely just nowhere in the report of the Corona blame climate change on that young fella's death.
But that's what they're desperate.
They're desperate to make themselves the narrative instead of being, of course, part of the story.
All right, so you're thinking minority government.
I think it.
Actually I'll get into this a bit.
I hope I'm wrong.
I think we might not know an outcomes Saturday night.
If I think that, well now, I don't think we'll have Sunday off. That don't count on Sunday, So we might have an outcome maybe till the middle of next week. But you know, you've asked the question. So I think the government will be returned in minority. And as I've said before in other places as well, the Daily Telegraph and the Daily Telegraph, app goodness helps if.
That's the case.
Indeed, all right, Ray happily, thank you so much.
Thanks for it's been a pleasure being with you for the five weeks.
And I hope you continue. Love to see you back here next Tuesday and we can discuss the fallout from the election.
All right, I'll be back next to make it six weeks. Thank you dad.
Now, as you know, Minnie Ryan's campaign has been rocked by allegations that a Chinese Communist Party linked organization has allegedly been trying to get people to volunteer and vote for her. You might have seen this video already. Have a quick look.
We're trying to find a graph find out you know you both are.
Supporting and obviously volunteering for money.
Grian?
Why you call you?
Yeah?
Yeah, Flan's just term you for this is a woman.
Where did you make.
Now? Minnie Grian says that she's got nothing to do with it, and she even referred it to the AEC for investigation. Let's bring it out. Skynese host Steve Price, Steve, good to see you look this. You know, Ray was just speaking about the Teals. Sophie scomps Minnie Grin has had the worst campaign out of all the Teals, but because they are a brand, it reflects poorly on all of them. What do you think about Goldstein and Kou Young?
Do you think they're going to be returned to the Liberals on Saturday.
Well knowing I was going to talk to you tonight, I went out to the pre poll in Kuyong today, which is in the in the town hall on the corner of Glenferry Road and High Street. And you should have seen the crowd there.
It was just unbelievable.
I've never seen more core flutes at an election polling booth in my life. I spoke briefly to Amelia Hamer, who looks like she needs a good night's rest. She's really been working very hard. This is the Liberal candidate to hold that seat. Monique Ryan wasn't there, but I was. I mean, this is what happens when you have a public cation you go to a pre poll. Monique Ryan's teal how to vote card. People were all over me like a bad rash, and then I said that I
didn't really want to talk to them. I think that Monique Ryan is probably at the moment just a little bit ahead, but I've got no confidence she can hold it. Emelia Hamer is a fantastic candidate. She's been well resourced, and Monique Ryan and Kujong lost a bunch of seats in a redrawer of the boundaries of that seat that took in some of them the more voting likely voters. And she picked up a bit of South Yarra, in a bit of trakn area like that. So it's going
to be a incredibly tight contest. Tell you what, have you been staggered at the number of people and turning out to these prepoles? I mean millions. I think four million people was the last figure I heard. Shari have voted already. So Monique Grian, I mean, she's had a shocking campaign. Her husband ripped down that post and then pretended he wasn't involved with her at all. Then she's had this issue clearly with the two Chinese that were
on that video connected to the Hubei organization. Monique Grin says, I went to one dinner and that's it. You know, it's not been a good It's not been a good campaign for her at all.
I just want to ask about other parts of Victoria. We have heard for a while that this is the coalition's strong opportunity to pick up many seats in the art of suburban areas. Do you think this is still looking good for the coalition or has it come off a bit.
Has it tightened, come off a bit, but not a lot. I think those out of bourbon seats so get back Aston. I don't think there's any doubt about that. Outer the petrol. The petrol excise policy has been really well received in the out of suburbs because people are, like in Western Sydney, are driving, you know, thirty forty kilometers a day in and out, so double it sixty k's. They're filling the car up twice a week. I think it's going to help her. I think it's going to help Peter Dutton
in places like Flinders. I think Zoey McKenzie's probably going to hang onto that seat even though there's a blow called Ben Smith down there, another TiAl funded by Climate two hundred and he's got a huge number of billboards and posters up, so he's obviously had a well funded campaign and I think Zoe's worked really hard and will probably hang on to that seat. So look, I've said
to you do this, I've told you this before. Labor brand is toxic in Victoria, will be toxic enough for people to punish Anthony Albanisi or do they want to wait until next year and punish the appalling justinto Allen.
It'll be a bit of both.
So I don't think the result would be as good as what Peter Dutton hoped at the beginning of the campaign. But I think he's still going to pick up three or four seats in Victoria.
Yeah, speaking about the impact of the state government now they just center Alan government. Of course. Daniel Andrews is now struggling to join a golf club. I thought you'd find this story quite funny that he did manage to get a membership through a mate of his to the prestigious Mornington Peninsula Golf Club and then they removed him after there was an uproar from the other golfers.
You couldn't resist, could you. I mean, he should have asked my old golfing partner, Ray Hadley about this. He would have loved it as well. Andrews first tried to get into ports SA, as you know, I said that I'd rip up my membership. Then all the members of my golf club said we're not going to have him here. He tried to go to the National Golf Club, which is another prestigious golf club. They had a revolt on
their hands, so he got thrown out of there. So his old mate, property developer by the name of Max Beck, tried to pull a swiftye. So Max has gone a corporate membership at this golf club. And on the corporate membership of two names, one is Max Beck, the other one was his wife. Now without imagine this, without telling his wife, Max took her name off and put Dan Andrews's name on. When the wife found out, she didn't speak to Max for a week, not happy at all.
And then the members that Munarlynx blew up. And not only that Munar Link's golf course share his own by the Chinese. Once the Chinese saw the social media reaction about Daniel Andrews teeing up on the first hole at moonar Lynx, they said, we're not going to wear this. So he's not playing golf there either. Thank god, he.
Can't find a spot to play golf at all. I mean, I didn't know that part about Max Beck saying that effectively saying he doesn't want to play golf with his wife anymore. Presumably that's what you know. Some couples dos out at eighty prevent play golf with Dan Andrews.
Oh yeah, golf politics.
You never ever know.
It's a whole other world. All right, Steve Price, thanks so much. Now still to come, the new clear Scare campaign has hit rock bottom without right lies from Albanezi, the Dutton once nuclear reactors in his own seat. James Patterson will give his reactions shortly. Plus political analysts who say the national polls are wrong. Well, Cameron Milner and
Andrew Carswell will join me after this quick break. Welcome back. Well, let's get straight into it with Bill Shotton's former chief of staff and former Queensland Labor State Secretary Cameron Milner and former Morrison pressek Andrew Carswell, who's also happened to write an excellent piece in The Nightly Today about how the national polls are getting it wrong thanks to a
boost in the One Nation and trumpet of patriot preference flows. Andrew, So you're writing that an increase could almost mirror the impact of the Greens preferences to Labor and that this dynamic isn't being picked up in the vast majority of current polls. Can you tell us about how this could impact on Peter Darton's chances at the election.
Certainly there's going to be a massive shift in the way that One Nation and Clive Palmer votes their preferences will flow on to the coalition. In twenty twenty two at the election, there was a sixty five flow on effect to the coalition. The major parties are picking up the fact that this could be as high as seventy five percent this time around, and when you add that to the fact that we're going to see a massive vote for One Nation at this election, Newspot has it
at about eight percent. Add that in with the extra vote that you'll get from Clive and his troop of Trumpeters, and you're going to see an equivalent primary vote to the Greens, perhaps for the first time, and that's pretty significant, and that flow on effect to the coalition will give it some opportunities to pick up seats that have usually
been out of reach for them. The problem with the Coalition for many elections is that you need to get to forty one forty two percent primary to be considered a viable option to win that seat. With this preference shift, it means that they can get to thirty four to thirty five in some of these out of metro seats and still be a chance of falling across the line due to these preferences. So it really makes things interesting
on the night for Saturday. Certainly there's a massive, massive hill to climb for the Coalition and Labor minority government would be an outrageous favorite at this point in time. But it's going to make things pretty tight, and it could lead to the fact that you're going to see potentially a doubling of what you would call a marginal seat after this election, with many many seats sitting on about one and a half to two percent margins.
I mean, it's really interesting because what you just said there about you know, the traditional thinking that for the Coalition to win, I mean the primary, the Liberals primary vote needs to be in the forties, needs to be higher than forty percent. But I mean, I think kind of garner the days when people just have the two
major parties really to choose from. Now there's this. You know, there's a litany of minor parties that are stealing the Conservative vote on the moderate vote, and it's the same of course for Labor with the Greens as well. But you just wonder whether the Liberals primary will ever be back in the forties or if it is now going to be the case where one nation becomes a strong force of its own. Cameron, what do you think here?
Do you think that, like Andrew said, the national polls aren't capturing what's unfolding in this contest.
No, I think today's article by Andrew is an excellent piece. It's a really good piece of analysis, Andrew, because forget the national polls, where you know one nation can be as high as ten ten and a half in you govern essential it's where those one nation voters will occur. They occur in out of suburban seats and in regional cities, which just happens to be we're all the really marginal
battleground seats are. So I think it's spot on in terms of the analysis that we'll be looking on election night in four night's time exactly where those one nation preferences are going and at what rate they're going as well.
My only thing I think is that a lot of those votes I we canned on the night, the pre poll votes, as we've both said before Andrew, will be more for traditional major party votes, so early in the night, those one nation preference are going to be critical, and so many seats like Hawk for instance, where Peter Dutton was at Melton only just yesterday. Seats like Hawk could
see seven or eight percent swings against Labor. I mean that's also down the local member being pretty bad, but even so big swings and those out of metros and one nation will help the coalition get much closer.
Well, let's have a look at how the leaders are spending the final days of the campaign, which seats they're focusing on, because that does tell us a lot. Well, since my day, the Prime Minister's made five stops in coalition, Green and independent seats that Labour's keen to pick up, so not just defending his own seats. Dutton has of course been on the attack this entire time. He's visited fifty one Labor House seat. Andrew, how do you view their tactics.
Well, you're always guided by the research in that last week. You go where your party tell you to go, and that could be on the offensive but also the defensive as well. And I love the thinking at Liberal headquarters at the moment where they're directing Peter to go. Cameron said, you know he's been to Hawk, he's been to Gorton twice. Gordon sits on about nine and a half percent. He's been to Whitlam a few times as well, and there's a lot of talk about that seat potentially coming into
play as well. Mikewen We've talked about. So there's you go on the attack, but there's also the bluff game as well, and that's we're seeing that from the Labour side as well. We've seen them visit Bonner today and other seats in Brisbane suburbs that probably look like more of a bluff than a reality at this stage that they can pick up probably Brisbane and they can pick up Griffith, but I think more than that is probably pushing it.
So it's a.
Little bit of mind games, it's a little bit of seas setting, and it's also a little bit of last minute grab for that vote.
I mean, we've been talking during this campaign about the Trump factor and how that has turned into quite a negative for Peter Darton, one that was completely out of his control. Well, today we saw Canada re elect its government. This is one of the most astounding political turnarounds, I mean, considering where they were when Justin Trudeau resigned. So Prime Minister Mark Cartney has been re elected. Cameron, you know, there's no question that in the Canadian election, Donald Trump
was the deciding factor. I mean, he was constantly joking Canada should become America's fifty first state. He hit it with tough tariffs. So obviously the effect is less in Australia, but it is still a factor. How do you how much impact do you think this has had on Darton.
Well, I think if you share borders with toxic Trump, you're going to get display. And obviously Trudeau's party was gone for all money.
The Conservatives are.
Going to win the next election, and within a few months that's all flipped on its head and I think even the Conservative leader might lose their seat tonight in Canada. It's that bad for the Conservatives because of this toxicity that Trump delivers to conservative politics. I think of the further away you get, the more it's just a bit of a distraction. But certainly during this campaign, Trump sucked oxygen out of the cost of living debate and that hurt the coalition.
So even if it wasn't that the.
Labor kind of meme saying that that Dutton was Trump, I think that was a bit cheap. The reality is that we weren't talking about cost of living every day. We were talking about Trump's tariffs and that was a good day for Labor because it was one less day they were talking about Labour's record.
Yeah, I think just on the Canadian election, I think it's a pity for Pierre Polyivert because he did seem like such. It is such a smart.
Leader leed for solo Ben Yes would.
Have been a good prime minister. Now The Australian Today had an interview with Andrew Charlton Labor and p for Paramatter, talking about his possible future on the Labor front bench. Now, the argument was put, and I think this is right that he has been held back. He's been sidelined by
the Albanese government. And you do you think this is because he's a threat to some of the front bench, because he is one of the most talented members and many have for a long time thought he's prime ministerial material.
Oh, he's certainly in talent.
I think he knows it too. But look for your first term MP, you've got to sit and by your time, no one on the coalition side is elevated straight into a cabinet or an out of ministry position. You do your time. So I think his time will come and he is a future leader, There's no doubt about that, both in terms of his smarts but also his politics, and he's appealed to the public as well. He is
a potential statesman in the making. But the problem he's got is there's no appetite at the moment for generational change. So whatever happens in this election, no matter if Albaneze has a bad goal or not, he's long. He's a long way down the list of potential future leaders. There's there's there's a whole swag of him on the right, and it's the old guard that are going to come between him and realizing his dream of becoming party leader.
We're running out of time and I quickly want to get your view on this, Cameron just thirty seconds.
Yep.
So look, I think Charlton's a great talent, so so no doubt at all. I'd have him in the cabinet any other day than Tony Burke. I mean, Tony Burk's been around for too long, his politics is too long as well. He should go and Charlton should come in.
One hundred percent. Tony burg should go and anyone should come in. But yes, I think there is a lot who are threatened by chartering. All right, Carara, Miana Andrew Carso I've got to get your predictions very quickly, Andrew. Who's going to win.
Labor minority?
But I think DUTs can get to sixty six sixty seven and be competitive.
Be competitive, So maybe hunk Carman say Andrew, yes, definitely.
Look Albos.
Cameron and Albo's back as PM.
Albos back at PM.
Yeah, all right, Well, a lot of material to discuss if he is, Thank you both so much. Now, still to calm the labor lined union officials pulling a stunt at Dutton's campaign event. Well will the Prime Minister apologize for this? And James Patterson calls for the AFP and AZO to investigate volunteers linked to Manique Ryan's campaign. He
joins me, that's James Patterson live next, welcome back. Well, we know Labour's had a scare campaign on nuclear for a while now, despite the fact that some thirty developed countries around the world rely on nuclear energy. But today it got ratched up or not. Here was Alban Easy and Jim Chalmers.
If we get the same swing that we got in the twenty twenty two election, Ailey France will be elected the member for Dix the Saturday. Peter Dutton has gone away from he's electorate. Not to it, Ali francis committed to that electorate. What's more, Peter Dutton is now saying that he wants a nuclear reactor in that electorate as well.
To make sure that we're not doing what Peter Dutton wants to do, which is to build a nuclear reactor in the suburbs of his local community.
And Shadow Home Affairs Minister James Patterson joins me. Now, James, is this a direct lie that Dutton is going to have a nuclear reactor in Dixon.
It's one of the most blatant lies of the election campaign. Shari, We've had a lie tracker on the Prime Minister for the campaign. He's told a seven lies in just twenty odd days. We hadn't set one up for Jim Chalmers, but perhaps we should have because he'd be equal with maybe even a head of the Prime Minister at this point of the campaign. There is no nuclear facility proposed in Peter Dutton's electric of Dixon. There are no qualified
power stations in Peter Dutton's electorate of Dixon. That's the place we're proposing to eventually transition nuclear power into and Jim Chalmers should be embarrassed and that he should be better than that.
Clearly he is not.
It's quite egregious the scare campaigns, particularly when they are blatantly untrue. There's no indication there would be a nuclear reactor in Dixon. Now, James, today you've called for the AFP and AZIO to investigate the allegations of possible foreign interference in Minique Ryan's campaign. Why do you think this is potential foreign interference during an election campaign?
Well, sorry, this is a very troubling story broken by Paul Skarl in the Age where he obtained a video of volunteers on Monique Ryan's campaign wearing Menique Ryan t shirts, saying that they had been directed to campaign for her by the president of the Hu Bay Association of Melbourne. Now, this Hubay Association is affiliated with the United Frontwork department of the Chinese Communist Party, which Hijinping has described as
the Chinese Communist Party's magic weapons into fear in democracies. So, on the face of it, based on the facts are on the public record, it seems like a very clear case of foreign interference. It must be investigated by ASIO and the Australian Federal Police and it's up to them to determine whether it meets the legal threshold. But it is a very troubling development that the Nick Ryan has
not adequately explained. All she's done is refer herself to the AAC and bizarrely the Department of Parliamentary Services have no jurisdiction and no role in this, and attempted to brush this under the carpet and play down it. But it's very serious. We cannot have a foreign authoritarian government involving themselves in elections in Australia. Only Australians can decide the outcome of Australian elections.
I was speaking just earlier about the Canadian election today. Quite an astounding outcome. I mean it seemed for a while there was no chance that the Trudeau, the Trudeau, given how unpopular he was, that Mark Carney could have a chance. It seemed like Pierre Pierre Puliva just a couple of months ago had it in the bag. You a concern there's going to be a similar Trump effect with the coalition in this election.
Well, there's been one of the most dramatic reversals of electro politics in any Western democracy that I've seen in
my lifetime, and probably much longer than that. It was only a few months ago that Pierre and the Conservatives were twenty points ahead of the Canadian Liberals and Justin Trudeau, and since then there has been a leadership change in the Canadian Liberals, but also obviously rhetoric from President Trump about Canada becoming the fifty first state and very significant trade tariffs on Canada, and that has seemingly completely reversed
the fortunes of the long serving government that was starting to become quite unpopular. So look, it's possible that there are factors like that playing out in this election. But the truth is that Donald Trump is not on the ballot in Australia. Only Peter Dutton and Anthony Albanesi are.
And the question we have to answer at the election on the Saturday at the third of May is not whether we like Donald Trump or not, but whether or not we think our Prime Minister Anthony Albanesi will be any better in his second term on issues like the cost of living than he was in his first term. And if you think he did a good job in
his first term. I think he's going to be even more disappointed in what he does in his second term because cost of living will be up even further under an albert ezy Band's Labor Green.
Government, especially with this warning from SMP that is highly concerning that the Prime Minister seemed to scoff and just dismiss last night. I mean, do you think that was an appropriate response from the Prime minister to mock a ratings agency that is nonpartisan, that is highly credible globally.
It was childish and it was desperate, and it was beneath the office of Prime Minister to not heed the warning by a respected international ratings agency that says the Prime Minister's reckless spending, his ten years of planned deficits, his plan to reach one point two trillion dollars of debt,
is going to have severe consequences for our ratings. The reason why those ratings are really important, Charry, is that if we get downgraded, that means interest rates will be That means every Australian will pay even more on their mortgage than they have during the first term of the Albanesi government. And for him to so glibly dismiss It just captures why labor can't be trusted to manage the economy.
They are not up to this task and life will become more expensive in the second term of an Alberanzi government should.
He get there.
But also that rudeness mocking the analysts at a global global ratings agency. I mean, as I said earlier, if they were lying boling a decision, I mean that would push them over the edge. Given how Coalition treasurers have actually traveled to New York to work with them and explain their economic plan with them in the past, it's just really jeopardizing the national interest, right, James Patterson, thank you so much for your time. Now, don't go anywhere.
Right after the break, we'll talk about the deteriorating state of Australia's political landscaped landscape, Stay tuned. A teenager has been charged after an attack on Peter Dutton's office during this election campaign. The eighteen year old was allegedly behind the vandalism. His doors, windows and walls smeared with red paint. In the third time that Dutton's office has been targeted, and as you know, he's had serious threats against him as well. And this is the sacrifice he's making to
run as opposition leader, to try and make our country better. Now, there was another hijacking of Dutton's campaign event as well in Gilmour today, anti nuclear protesters dressed up in hazmat suits and Dutton was there to announce upgrades to the football club. The local junior team were present. Children. Now this is what he's having to put up with. Will
Albanezie apologize for it? I wouldn't hold my breath and right now for a conversation that Albanese doesn't have the courage to have, he is Paul Murray with Peter Dutton
