Live on Sky News.
This is Sharry Good Evening.
Tonight, exclusive Liberal party intel shows the election is much closer than the poll suggests. I'll share these confidential details and Liberal strategy for the final week in a moment.
Plus, we'll hear tonight from.
The director of Freshwater Strategy, the polling company behind the Liberals campaign, and radio legend. Ray Hadley would join me on the desk to speak about Minique Ryan's shocking day where she refused to answer questions on three separate occasions.
We've got new footage coming.
Up, and we'll cross live to the Vatican as crowds gathered.
To mourn Pope Francis.
On the show tonight, Bronwin, Bishop Dave Shama, Steve Price and more.
But first tonight.
Exclusive inside information into the state of this election and the truth about the polls. Polling booths are now open, Australians are casting their votes and the election is anyone's to win. Now Tonight, I'm going to tell you how the polls you're reading in the news are wrong when it comes to this federal election and what's really going on here. Most national polls have been showing Labor ahead and some have even pointed to majority government for Labor.
But this is a fantasy. Now.
You need to remember that the polls are simply a national survey of around one three hundred or so voters.
It's like a thumb in the wind to see the national mood, and.
The national polls pick up general trends and shifts in sentiment, but in terms of accuracy for the election outcome, they are categorically not the right tool for this particular election. Because this, more than any other is it's a hyper localized election. It doesn't matter what the national opinion is from one thousand or so voters out.
Of eighteen million registered voters.
It matters how the voters in the seats that are in play will vote, and the Liberals are polling around six hundred people in individual seats. Labor would be doing the same. So you look at six hundred voters per seat compared to one thousand people nationally, and when you look at the results from this, there's no question Peter
Dutton is absolutely in the game. Liberal strategists are comparing this election to nineteen ninety eight, when John Howard lost the two party preferred vote at forty nine percent to Beasley's nearly fifty one percent, but howard one majority government. Now, this election could be a case where Labor wins the two PP vote the two party preferred vote, but Dutton
either has more seats or there's a hung parliament. A likely outcome right now is that Dutton and alban Esi both win seats in the highest sixties, and then it would be who has the highest number and who can negotiate to form government.
Now, Labor does.
Have the advantage here because the Greens and the Teals would help Albanesi to form a radical green left government. It'd be even more out of step with Australia's Judeo Christian values than the Albanesi.
Government currently is.
Now.
A good outcome for Peter Dutton would be reaching seventy seats or more, which would.
Mean he'd have to pick up thirteen.
Seats and the coalition currently holds fifty seven.
Now it's a big ask, but.
This all depends on how the next week and a half of campaigning goes. Now here's some insight into Liberal parts strategy. I can reveal that the vast majority of Liberals' election spend is geared up from today onwards.
That's millions of dollars.
Dutton's team has held back the vast majority of their election spending until now. Their view was that Easter would be a reset and voters would start thinking about the election when polling booths open. Now this could be a genius movel. They could have just left their election spending
too late to make a difference. We know that Labour's aggressive attack ads have taken a hit on Dutton's personal standing, never mind whether they're true or not, and we'll yet to see whether the Liberals advertising spend on television and online hurts Alvin Easy in turn. But either way, right now the election is still highly competitive. One strategist said to me that at the moment the Liberals are within touching distance of being able to form a government, but
there's work to do. This is an important reminder that the narrative suggested by the National polling that you keep reading about that it's impossible for the coalition to win and that Labor will form a majority government.
This is inaccurate.
It's why I have spent the time digging into the difference between the published polling and the internal research to bring you this information because it is crucial both Dutton and alban Easy know this. They know it's tighter than is being publicly suggested. And Peter Dutton even this morning spoke about the twenty nineteen election when all the polling said Bill Shotten would be Australia's Prime minister. It was utterly wrong.
I think if you have a look at the twenty nineteen pole result, where all the public published polling was pointing one way, the reality is that there was a different outcome. Now I'm not going to go into the private polling, but you'll see where the government's spending money at the moment in their seats. They're defending seats at the moment, they're not on the offensive. So I think there's a bit more of a sophisticated view in relation
to the polling and what's happening at the moment. Australians are hurting. That's the reality.
So Dartan, they're saying that their private polling is different and reflects a different outcome to the published polls.
It's also what National's.
Leader David little Proud said in an interview last week as well.
I don't think the national polls are reflective of the hyper local campaigns are taking place. There, and I think to your point, it's exactly about cost of living about in particularly as you get out of the inner suburbs where there is not necessarily a bigger cost of living crisis. As these you get out further out, they're not feeling
it as much. And I think what's important is that while we're not walking away from the national polls and what they reflect, what we're what we're seeing now we're internal polling, is that as you get out where Australians are struggling and we're saying to them, we're going to give you a tax cut of twelve hundred dollars an individual twenty four hundred family.
Now Anthony Alberanezi is getting cocky, but he knows this election is much tighter than the perception in the media, and he even warned publicly that, like Dudden said, this could be a repeat of twenty nineteen when everyone said Shorten was going to win.
But did it. I remind colleagues that twenty nineteen.
The book is paid out and guess what that didn't occur.
That was a very unwise thing to do. Now here's something else.
It's also worth keeping in mind that the pollsters behind News poll are Pixis Polling and they do the polling and research for the Labor Party.
Now, I'm not saying newspoles inaccurate.
I'm just saying it's worth keeping this in mind that the polsters behind it are being paid by Labor, probably millions of dollars.
Now.
The Liberal Party's polling is done by Freshwater Strategy, where the polster Mike Turner is considered the best in the business. Now, where Labor is spending its money also unpicks the narrative that it's confident of winning government. Labour's financial spend shows it's putting money and resources into holding onto very safe seats.
Coalition analysis of Google and YouTube advertising spends shows that Labor is spending the most on safe Labor seats and these include Wills held by Peter Khalil on a margin of four point six percent, where Labour spent one hundred and twenty nine thousand dollars in the past month, Chisholm
held by Labour's Koreina Garland. This is on a margin of three point three percent and Labour spent one hundred and sixty thousand dollars the seat of Hawk as well, margin of seven point six percent and Labour spent one hundred and eleven thousand. McEwen considered a safe seat again, Labour spent one hundred and ten thousand, and then Bruce held by Julian Hill and a margin of over five percent, and Labour spent one hundred and nine thousand, and on
it goes. Now, this advertising spend is on digital advertising. It's how political parties now reach young voters who aren't consuming traditional media just as much.
I mean, as you know, they're online the whole time.
A coalition Sauce said that, and this is the coalition Sauce quoted in the Australian. They said that Labor is sandbagging in seats they claim they're not worried about and some.
Of these are very safe labor seats.
Gorton, Hawk, McEwen and the ALP is pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into retaining. Now in some seats, liberal internal research shows that there are huge swings towards the coalition. It's been this way for months now, so big the liberal strategists are describing it as historic. So the message
is this election is not over. Voters in key seats are unhappy with alban Easy understandably so, and the polls were disastrously wrong in twenty nineteen and again in the recent American election, when many are predicted the result either wouldn't be known for a week or more. All they said Kamala Harris would win. Now, Australian polsters aren't more sophisticated than the American sephologists.
And despite the.
Sand and the hourglass quickly trickling, we're only on day one of voting. The election isn't written in stone, and at this point the outcome is still up for grabs.
Okay, we're going to cross.
Live to Vatican City shortly, but now for more analysis on how the election's going, let's bring in former Speaker of the House ronman Bishop and Sky News host Steve Price.
Welcome to you both.
Roman, What are your thoughts on what I've just said there about this disconnect between the national mood that the polls that we see pushed forward in the media that give alb and Easy that confidence boost.
He needs, you know, compared to what the.
Individual's seat by seat research is showing in such a hyperlocal campaign.
Well, first point, I've always been working on the likelihood of winning thirteen seats for the Opposition to be able to form government. The second thing is that I've been saying for some time like you, that the polling itself has become a tool of campaigning yes, and by pushing out this view that Albert Easy is winning, he's so far in front they expect to push people into accepting that and going along with it.
So so true, it's.
Not to be believed that this is exactly the way it's all going. Those individual seats are very different, and it was famously Tip O'Neill, the former Speaker of the United States Congress, who said that all politics is local, and very much in these seats a local issues that are going to be relevant to the finish. So I think that Peter Dutton has got to be very forceful coming forward in these last days and push the fact that whatever Albanezi has offered you is usually off in
the future. What the opposition is offering is relief from the cost of living now, and the reduction in the petrol tax is first and foremost that clicks in immediately and affects the cost of everything, absolutely everything, because this country runs on diesel. So and the fact that he needs to point out what's in the wings, what they're going to give Australian people should they get back. And I just think that everything about Albanesi and his campaign
is fake, even down to what has happened today. I'm pleased there's been a pause to recognize this.
It's going to come to that in a moment actually.
But I just find Alberanzi to be so professing today, but refusing to take an oath on the Bible to be sworn in as prime minister somehow just doesn't rest easily.
And the attacks on tourney out of it. Absolutely all this rejection of religion.
Yes, and suddenly it's vital, But to me it's important for other reasons, which we'll discuss its.
Going exactly in a moment, the political reasons behind him doing that. Steve, you know, I want to get your thoughts on what I've had to say about the state of play.
At the moment.
I mean one of the main seats where the coalition is really looking to pick up what were.
Very safe labor seats is Victoria.
You know, do you see this mood, this rejection of the prime minister continuing in your state.
It was really interesting what you said at the beginning of the program, because what I picked up today and you made the point that the Liberal Party had held back a lot of their campaign funding and now they're going to let it loose. In the last week and a half, listening to three AW, the main talkback radio station in Melbourne to day, in every ad break from around about seven in the morning until around midday, there was a Peter Dutton voiced ad talking about what he
was going to offer Victorians. Now three OW is slightly less conservative than my old station two GiB in Sydney, and it's got a massive audience. The for show rates twenty percent, their morning show rates fourteen to fifteen percent, and their audience and I know because I used to run the joint. It's all spread through the outer ring suburbs of Melbourne where all those seats you just mentioned are, and they're now hammering, hammering, hammering the positive messages from
Peter Dutton on that radio station. They would have spent tens of thousands, if not over one hundred thousand dollars in one day. And that's going to happen over and over and over again. And I think Victoria is still a place to keep your eye on and Brommin talks about thirteen seats and so do you you know there could be eight, nine, ten seats in Victoria alone if you believe what you're hearing on the ground and as you said, voting today.
If that's true, Steve, if the swing really is on in Victoria, then you know, pushes the size of Dutton's when up much more because he's going to pick up a few in New South Wales. I mean, you say that is getting more difficult, but he's going to pick up a few South Wales potentially one in a couple of other states. So if it is that big in Victoria that he's in a position to form minority government.
The labor brand here is so toxic. And I've said it to you before, but it happened again last weekend where we find out that during COVID, Daniel Andrews, the Premier, was telling us he was taking medical advice. There's now documents that show that he was the one who decided to have a curfew where no one could go out of their house after nine o'clock at night and couldn't go out before five o'clock in the morning. That was
a decision taken by a labor politician. The only labor politician still in power who was in the cabinet that made that decision is the current premier. So the people of Victoria don't like labor and they're not saying, oh well, Anthony Albanize is different to what Dan Andrews and just Cinder Allen the life. They are saying, do we really want this mob to be in charge of us again?
That is such a scat and all that big exclusive revealed by the Herald son that you know, instead of getting health advice, he got advice from polsters, literally polsters. You know there are young I don't know children, but teenagers who committed suicide. Their mental health issues were so bad Brunwan during the COVID lockdowns as a result of the decisions Daniel Andrews took for his own popularity against health advice.
Absolutely and we all really thought that that what was going on at the time. I have to say, but to now to have the proof of us and no wonder you've got builders who won't build a house for him, more other people who won't leaving associate with people. I just feel that Victoria was served so badly under labor that that feeling still there. It does remind me a bit of nineteen ninety when Andrew Peacock won nine seats
in Victoria. It was New South Wales that let him down and not winning that election, and New South Wales's time won't be letting the Coalition down.
No, there's still plenty of seats or not as many of course, but still plenty to pick up in New South Wales. Steve, I want to get your reaction, you know, returning to the Pope's passing what I spoke about with Brunwin. The Prime Minister today said there'll be a pause in campaigning, a pause in the hostilities. You know, he suddenly cares about Catholicism when he's mocked it in the past.
The hypocrisy here.
Well, as Bromin said he refused to take the oath on the Bible when he was sworn in as Prime Minister. If you go back and look at the history of Anthony Albanesi in his relationship with religion, I'm not sure you're going to find a very staunch Catholic. I mean he certainly he mocked Tony Abbott, he called him the mad Monk I mean to suddenly decide that the death of the pope means that you're suddenly yourself a staunch Catholic. Look, maybe Anthony and Albaneze he's had a late life conversion
to religion. But if you'd ask me a question a two weeks ago whether I thought Anthony Alberanezi was particularly religious, I would have said no.
Yeah, and he's never said that he is religious. Brow this would have been politically advantageous for him, as you were about to say before, one in five Australians are Catholic, and it would have given him more time to prepare for the debate tonight.
And of course he doesn't want.
There to be any campaigning days because that works in Darden's advantage.
It also gave him good pictures. But on that question of the porting of the campaign, I approve of that because this is a country where the dominant religion is Christian. Yes, this country was founded on Christian values and principles, and I think it is appropriate, and I'm saying this is a Protestant. I think it is appropriate that the marking of the Pope's passing is recognized in this way to say that this is who we are as a people in the nation, and I think that's very important.
No, I agree with you, And we gave a lot of coverage on the show last night to the Pope's passing, which happened just before we went to air, because religion is important and he is not only an historic figure, but he was incredibly inspirational to billions of Catholics around the world and other.
People as well. And we're going to cross live to the Vatican in a moment.
As I said, Steve, I want to ask you now, let's show this video Max Weifer.
You might remember him.
He's the Israeli influencer who showed those nurses making those very offensive and he submitted comments about Israelis that they'd kill Israelis if they went into the hospital. They've now been charged and they're making their way through the court system. Well, Max Weber has captured another Australian doing the Nazis.
Have a look at this. What's good man?
What's that juice?
Why you.
Pokustanding people?
We didn't pakistanding before we free purchased there.
I'm not sure why we've blurred his image. But if you've got a Max Viifa's Instagram account. You can see the full thing there, Steve. We don't know who this individual is, but you know, just appalling the prevalence of this sort of attitude online at the moment and how people are embracing the hitless salute.
It's appalling and it does remind us soon as you said, this is going through the court, so you go back to the original vision video that he captured and it gave us a very stark insight into just how bad the anti Semitism has become in our country. And I think it's shocked. I mean, we have seen over and over and over and over again just how bad it is. It's interesting that it's not been a part of the
election campaign really. I mean, of all the debates that we've had, I haven't seen someone nail the Prime Minister on how weak the government was post October seven. And they never really came out and slammed as hard as they should have what was going on around the suburbs
of Australia. I don't believe they have anyway. I think Peter Dutton was much tougher and much harder on that, and I just hope somebody gets the opportunity to ask Anthony Alberanezi before election day, do you think now today, right now, before we go to the polls on the third, that you've done enough to support the Jewish people of Australia.
Yeah. Absolutely.
How can he possibly say that when Drayfus has preferenced the Greens, you possibly believe that there's been any sincerity in anything that Albinizi has had to say about the antisemitism in this country. When the senior person in the law in this country, who is a Jewish person himself, is preferencing the hideous Greens.
Says it all massive betrayal. And absolutely we've seen in so.
Many seats today because finally today of course we see everyone's how to vote cards and we're seeing in so many seats, well, the Greens aren't preferencing labor. Second, so why couldn't Mike Dreyfus, as the attorney journalist, as you say, is the most senior Jewish member of the government, why couldn't he come out and say I'm not going to preference the Greens.
Second, it is because Alberanizi has told him he can't and he's weak enough to give in.
And then on that you know, as I spoke about last night, Josh Burns was blocked from coming on my speak about this, and then Steve Price today will again revelations in The Australian that Josh Burns Anthony Alberaneze has stopped Josh from taking questions at a press conference also about this issue.
And Josh had the guts and courage to have an open ticket where he's not preferencing anybody, which he would have been criticized internally for making that decision, but good on him he did it. But Drafa, says Roman points out, I mean that is just a scandal that he would preference a party like the Greens that have marched in all of these pro Palestinian rallies weekend after weekend after weekend.
Their own members of Parliament have stood up there and been absolutely appalling in some of the things they've said. So Labour's got form on this and people have got to realize that.
Yeah, exactly, all right, Steve Price, Broman, Bishop, thank you both so much. Now, it's been an emotional twenty four hours for Catholics around the world with Pope Francis's passing. There's been an outpouring of grief in the Vatican as crowds have gathered to pay their respects, and today we also saw footage of the Pope it is coffin for the first time. Now, this may be confronting to look out, so just a warning there, and it is surreal to
see these images of the Pope in his coffin. Now, let's bring it now, news cop European correspondent Sophie Ellsworth. She's in the Vatican City and joins us live. Sophie, thank you very much for your time talk us through what's happened today in the past twenty four hours since Pope Francis passed away.
Well, Sharrier, as you can see, it's a beautiful day here at Vatican City and there's thousands of people streaming into the Italian capital to remember Pope Francis. There's so many people continuing to flock to the city.
The crowds are building very quickly.
We've had airports in a dated with people flying in, hotel bookings going crazy. There's a real buzz around here, Sharry, despite it being a very somber time and many people very saddened by the passing.
Of Pope Francis.
Many people are here also to celebrate his life and also celebrate the work he did leading the church for twelve years. So there's people arriving here at the moment with flowers. There's lots of family members gathering together. There's worshipers who have arrived in groups. But we're seeing that obviously, Shary. There's several days to the funeral yet, but the crowds
are already enormous. So people are thinking of coming to Vatican City for the funeral, they need to make their arrangements pretty quickly because this place is really filling up.
So yes, as you just said, the funeral is still to come or be held on Saturday, twenty seventh of April. What can you tell us about those details and whether or not the Vatican will fulfill the Pope's wishes to have a more pared back procession, So.
Sharry, we don't know one hundred percent sure.
The last I heard when I checked here with Vatican everyone saying Saturday is the most likely day for the funeral, but was still waiting for details on that. But yes, he has made his wishes very clear that he wanted a scale back you know, commemoration.
Of his life. He didn't want the big fan bed.
It traditionally goes with the funerals of pontiffs, so we're waiting to hear those details, but they are being thrashed out as we speak, Shari, So many people are waiting to hear exactly when it will be the details of it and the arrangement that he will want. But tomorrow his body will be for viewing at inside Saint Peter's Basilica, where many people are expected to stream here again hoping to catch a glimpse of him ahead of the funeral, most likely on the weekend.
Now, Sophy, turning to the next pope and the process that will happen in terms of how that pope is chosen. Can you talk us through a bit about that process and also who the leading candidates are, at least what's being reported in the media.
Sure, Sharry.
So there's basically they will start the process, the conclave process, between sixteen and twenty days after the death of Pope Francis, so there's still some time for this official process to begin. There's one hundred and thirty seven cardinals who are eligible to vote. They must be under eighty years of age, so they will gather together at the Sistine Chapel and thrash out their voting in terms.
Of pointing in new pontiff.
Now, there are a couple of key candidates and one of them is Filipino Cardinal Tagli. Now he's one of the names that keeps being bandied around. He's very progressive, like Pope Francis was on who is in the running for this to take over.
From Pope Francis.
And also the Vatican Secretary is another one, Petro Harlon. His name is also being very much in the media here. He's been described as a safe set of hands. He is the Vatican Secretary, so he's also another contender. But look Sherry, it's a complicated process. I hope to do it quite quickly because it's not a good look for the Vatican if this process does take a lot of time. But of course everyone is waiting to get through the funeral before.
That official process does take place.
All right, Sophy Elsworth, thank you so much for joining us live from Vatican City. Now, just a quick update to the Ben Robert Smith appeal, where the Victoria Cross recipient is calling for a retrial for the defamation finding as well to be set aside over what he claims is misconduct. Now, the case is set for the May first and May second, so late next week and nine journalist Nick McKenzie will take the stand and he'll face
cross examination. This is all over the audio recording that we revealed where Nick McKenzie said he'd been actively briefed on Ben Roberts Smith's legal strategy.
No, I shouldn't tell you.
I've just preached my newthics in doing that, like this is where like this is position there if they knew.
That, impet you that.
And The Australian also reports that Robert Smith's lawyers have subpoenaed the ABC for any communications between Nick McKenzie and the Media Watch program. That's after Media Watch host Linton Besser put forward McKenzie's.
Version of events.
Right.
We'll continue to update you on this story, particularly.
Next week, but for now still to come.
The director of Freshwater Strategy, the polling company behind the Liberals campaign, will break down where the election's up to. Plus, Ray Hadley will fire up about Minique right, and I'll show you the new footage where she refused to take questions on three separate occasions.
Today, Ray Hadley and that footage after this quick break welcome back. Well you would have seen this by now.
Of course, Minniku Ran turning her back on Laura Jay's this morning.
Oh yeah, we don't want to interrupt, but we just wanted to.
Yeah, we are well in the interest of fitters transparency.
We just thought maybe we just want to know how your campaign's going.
This morning's going well.
Thanks, Lauren.
I am here to engage your photos.
Through a prepole.
It's a little litery.
Yeah, so I'm not sure that it's really ideal for you to be interrupting the process.
Have you had any other have you ready?
Well, this was live on air and it quickly made the news. So you'd think Minnie Ran would have learnt her lesson after that, but sadly not, because then she refused to speak to The Australian Today as well.
I towers play so arre.
You from Movie Australia. We're not taking it that way through?
Can I details that I can refer?
I mean, she's right there. Why can't she speak for herself? But that wasn't aw Here's another clip where Minnie Grin refused to engage with a voter about her own voting record.
In parliament rather engage.
Experts. There's lots of one.
Excuse me, I just refer you to the next website that statements.
As we just stick to.
Talking to.
I'm a voter too, I would refer you to her website. So much for transparency.
And on that note, Ray Hardley joins me, Now, Ray, what is wrong with these deals?
And how frustrating is Manique rayt Well, it's.
One thing to say too, that a light for Laura Jays, who is an outstanding journalist and the Australian journalist. Look, I'm here to talk to my constituents, but then we're one of the constituents. What to put a question to us? She refused that as well as polite as Laura isn't the main I think she may be wanting to ask her about the clandestine stealing of election posters in the dark of night, allegedly by someone very close to her.
So look, if she is returned to Parliament, it will be one of the great disgraces to conduct yourself in that fashion two weeks out from the election and not allow questioning from a journalist or even your constituents. But there's another story breaking this afternoon Tonight, James Willis from the Telegraph had just published that Nikola Boola has now confirmed that she paid the four non English speaking gentlemen to put up core flutes around the seat of Bradfield
in northern Sydney. She's also refusing to exceeded the request from the power company to take the core flutes down. She says, no, legally, I'm not going to take them down. She's confirmed she paid for it.
Now.
This is a woman she hasn't been to Parliament yet. She lost last time and she hopefully will lose this time as well, who, of course, is most notoriously known for making sexually inappropriate comments to a nine year old hairdresser. And she's brazen.
She's bold.
She's out there and now admitting that she paid for these blakes who told people in the street where they're putting up to you know, I can't use the expression, but everyone knows what they said to them in the most derogatory way. She's paying these oaths, these thugs to abuse her constituents. If she wins, that'll be a bigger disgrace than Menique Rhyan, I would think.
And that story's on the Telly website now.
But then we learn that Clive Palmer is preferencing the deals over the coalition.
I mean, what's wrong with this guy?
Well is a gift that keeps on giving Clive. I've often said that people are under more pressure than his belt buckle. But in relation to Clive, I only fell based over apex. I thought, now it must be a misprint. Someone's got a a at, so to speak. But it's right. In fact, one of his candidates has now withdrawn and he's lending their support to the liberal candidate in that area.
I just don't know, given that he's a mining magnate, given that he gets back to his money from that and other interests, how he could support the Teals is beyond me. I mean, please, Clive, I know you've never listened to me, but for once in your life, do the right thing and change that immediately.
Please.
Yeah, reprint the heart of vote cards, which is what the.
One one nation have done.
They've done.
Good luck to them.
Yeah.
So I mean, looking at the Teals, what's your sense of how many of them will lose their seats this election? Because the TiAl movement really was a rejection by many Conservatives of Scott Morrison.
I like Scott Morrison. You like Scott Morrison. You know the public did it?
Yeah, well, you know they'd been there for a while, so they decided the public that twenty twenty two was the end of the section for him. But look the teals while ever they have the taint of funding from Climate two hundred drooped around their neck. They can't be taken seriously. It's what I say all the time. They say, not as we do, but do as we say. And by the way, I did hear your introduction about the polls,
which I was most interested. I did a piece this morning on the Daily Telegraph website about all of this. And you don't have to go back to John Howard in twenty nineteen. Scott Morrison, from the day the election was called in April until the day it was run, lost every poll, not just the news poll. There are six or seven polls conducted by repidable companies. He lost
every one. It was fifty two, forty eight, fifty one, forty nine all the way through, and then a Galaxy exit poll on the day of the election scored it fifty two to forty eight to Bill Shorten. Now I'm not going to bag Poles was they're trying to do
their best with the information supplied to them. But if we and I've been guilty of it on this program in another area of saying, oh, the Poles aren't looking good, I had to give myself an uppercut when I went through the twenty nineteen results to say, well, hang on a sec. Morrison was never going to win. But he won.
But it's like everyone forgets that.
It's like there's this case of voter amnesia where journalists go, oh, Peter Dutton's running out of time. You know, even at very credible publications, Oh, Peter Dutton's running out of time because the Poles say he's.
Going to lose.
Well, you know that's not an accurate reflection necessarily. I think it's still probably looking like I hung Parliament at this point.
I don't look.
I don't think that, even me allowing for the Poles being wrong, that Peter can rule a majority. I think the best he can hope for the minority complete show that would be a shock and still the favorite option is Anthony Albanezi minority. But you know, I think after the first week we all took a deep breath and thought that wasn't a great week, and then the second, then the third. But you know, I went past a polling birth today in the Hills area to have a
bit of a look around. The place was packed. I've never seen so many people pre polling as I saw today. I mean, that's a safe liberal seat you out that way with Alex Hawking command. But the number of people who were out there, and that's one of the keys to the last couple of elections, the number of pre poll votes that are taken. People have got used to that.
The only que up even for a sausage sandwhich at the public school on a Saturday morning, they go and do it now when they've got a bit more.
Leisure time, convenient the case. But yeah, it has changed.
It's not a snapshot in time on that particular day. It is now the majority of voters vote in advance that was at the last election.
It'll be even bigger now, right, Great to see you.
We'll see you next week and it'll be her last show until before the election, so we'll.
Get a final prediction then.
Well, I can only keep my fingers crossed. I think people know what I'm hoping for. Whether I get my wishes another thing still to come.
Dave Sharma will give his verdict on the latest contest between alban Easy and Dutton, plus how safe labor seats could fold the coalision. Freshwater Strategy director Leo Shanahan will join us next. Welcome back, and joining me now is director of Freshwater Strategy, Leo Shanahan.
Leo, great to see you.
Thank Sure, of course, yours is the company that does the polling for the Liberals, but you specifically aren't the pollster, as I said earlier in the show.
That's Michael Turner.
But I want to ask you about this disconnect between what we're seeing in the national polls and what the seat by seat analysis is telling us about where this election is up to.
Yeah, well, I mean, I'm not going to go into seat by seat I don't honestly, I don't know, but I would say this the national polls. There's nothing wrong with the national polls as such that you know, they're done by very good pulses. I think that sometimes interpretations of national polls, though, can lead people into thinking there are certain there's necessary trends on seat by seat basis that don't necessarily exist. As you've said in your editorial.
It can be a much more difficult fight on a seat to seat basis, much more hand to hand combat. I guess we're seeing in this election for seats that perhaps have higher margins that fall outside of the classic electoral landscape. So you might have a swing of say five percent, but seats at ten percent plus might actually be targets in this election. And I think that's changed
a lot in recent elections. The electoral landscape has meant there's all these seats all over the place that are targets that perhaps weren't in the past.
And even seats right next to each other might have completely different local issues. And one could be a target seat for the Liberal Party, but one right adjacent to it would be even if it's marginis smaller, you know, it doesn't hope to win.
Yeah, And I think that's a lot to do with the sitting members and the makeup in those the small differences that occur in those seats, and not on a demographic basis, but sitting members, the work they've put in their recognition matters a lot.
Well.
Cost of living, as we know, is the biggest issue affecting Australians right now, and it's followed in your research at some distance really housing consistently.
So, yeah, and.
Most voters believe that Australia is heading in the wrong direction. That's fifty five percent of Australians.
So Leah, given this, these are the critical issues this campaign.
Why hasn't the Coalition been able to fully capitalize on this?
Well?
I think for starters, the Coalition has actually done pretty well to be in this position, and at times I think people need to sit back and recognize that fact that what you know, they're being asked to do is something that hasn't been done since pre war in Australia, which is great to pressure. Yes, exactly. So. I think that though a couple of factors have helped Labor and the run into the campaign. The interest rate cut I think undeniably helped. That was, you know, something that people
could recognize, it's money in the pocket. I think competing arguments around tax as some people have gone, well, they've got this, they're offering this tax cut, they're offering this tax cut. Is there any real difference between the two. And I think that as well, the framing of Peter Dutton by the Labor Party at times, this Trumpian notion hasn't really helped, So I think those are factors that have hurt.
But you know, the Madi scare and other campaigns.
And as you said, healthcare is still a major issue in this country and rightly so.
Now your research or freshwater research rather shows the Liberals picking up some safe labor seats. Can you tell us what the seats are that the targeting here?
Well, I mean look on our last model, which was public polling we've done, which we do as well with the Financial Review. We had seats like Ashton, Chisholm, McEwen in Victoria, Gilmore Patterson w A. Bullwinkle in NT which is hard to poll, but Bengari's it definitely you know, obviously a target there Ryan in Queensland. So these were seats which you know we've made clear on the swing to be projected, the coalition could could well pick up, but it should be set. On our national polling, the
coalition is short of seventy seats as well. It's picking up only about five or six sorry, but it's short.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, it gets to around sixty six on your national based on the uniform swing. Yeah, but obviously that's the national pole and not the seat BA seat research that we've been speaking about tonight. All right, Leah Shanahan, great to see you, Thank you very much for the insights. Thank surey all right, quick break now, and then Dave Sharma will give his verdict on alban Ezi and Dutton's latest clash, and in it Albanizi is pressed on his
deal with the Greens. That's after this quick break. Welcome back, and I'm joined now by Liberal Senator Dave Sharma.
Dave, great to see you. Now.
While we've been on air tonight, there was another debate between Peter Dutton and Anthony Alberizi and Channel nine. I obviously didn't watch it, but I'm told that it is that it was such a dull and boring debate, but that this was one of the key moments when Albanizie was pressed on the preference deal with the Greens. Have a look, will you do a deal with minority parties?
Prime Minister, No, mister Dutton, not.
With the Greens, but with independence. And that's not a truthful answer from the Prime Minister there. This is it's not that the Labor Party will fall ou themselves to do a deal with the Greens. It's just it's just you preference them.
Preference truth put forward, put forward by Peter.
Dave Sharma.
The reality is, of course Albanesi would do a deal with the Greens. If there's a hung Parliament, will have a radical Green left government.
Of course, you would, just as Julia Gillard did in twenty ten. And I would point out that Anthony Alberanesi is doing deals with the Greens in nearly every seat around the country right now, preference deals. You've had people like Mark Dreyfus and Mike Freelander, senior members of the Australian Jewish community who've been pleaded with by leaders in the Australia Jeish community not to preference the Greens, but
they've gone ahead and done it anywhere anyway. And that's a Labor headquarters direction and instigation.
I mean.
Another moment tonight that's been reported is that Anthony Alberesi was accused by Peter Dutton.
Dutton said to him, you.
Can't lie straight in bed, so it really went him about this, this lying that Albanesi keeps being untruthful in the campaign. I heard Andrew Clonelle on a earlier tonight and that was even something that he was frustrated about, because you know, this can't become a feature of campaigns moving forward.
What do you think about this, Well, I.
Think Peter Dunden was right to call this out. I mean, you know, I've found it incredibly frustrating during one of the first debates, and Anthony Alberenesi repeated this tonight. Is claims that the previous coalition government cut health and education. No, the previous coalation government didn't increase at the rate of spending that labor hoped it would be increased at, but a dollar amount that is increasing year on years, Peter out and pointed out is not a cut in anyone's
terms and terminology. But Anthony Alberanesi repeats that, you know, they repeat the many scare lie. You know, it seems like they have no record to run on because the only thing they can try on, the only thing they're trying to campaign on is you know, a fear of Peter Dunnen and the Liberals. But you'd think first term government would have some records to point to, some achievements they could offer up to the electorate, some prospect of what they might do better in the next term. But
there is none of this from Anthony Albanezy. I mean, the record is terrible and he has no vision for the next three years.
Now, you were, of course the Liberal MP in Wentworth in Sydney's East, which you lost at the last election to the allegri Spender, and now of course you're a Liberal senator. You must be following the Wentworth contest closely. How do you see it going at the moment between Spender and Ronox, the Liberal candidate.
Well, a couple of things.
Look.
Firstly, the Teals and associated groups so like you know, Climate two hundred and the Smart Energy Council and Danny Lick and others are spending a fortune year and that's clearly you know, that's repeat of twenty twenty two. One thing I've noticed though, is that the Teal candidates across the country seem to be quite happily fiarting laws, whether it's tearing down their opposite's campaign materials, whether it's putting up their own campaign materials on osgrid property which is
illegal or at least unauthorized. They seem to take the view that the laws don't apply to them, which suggests to me that they are worried because they're throwing the kitchen sink at this They've thrown out the rule book, and I think they know that they don't have a record to run on. You know, they were elected with this great hope that they would do politics differently. Instead, they've turned out to be some of the most cynical operatives and they've achieved nothing in the Parliament.
I mean, I don't think many people would argue with you about that, but just specifically how you think Wentworth is going at the moment and whether it is winnable for the Liberals at this election.
I think it's absolutely winnable. I think we've got a strong candidate in Ronox who's been working hard to get to know the community or introduce yourself as a political candidate to the community. I think parts of this electorate are very unhappy with the Albanezy government. The Jewish community because of this government's demonization of his and it's fairly into combat antisemitism. But also many people who are dealing with high interest rates, infation, all those sorts of things.
Cust of living is an issue everywhere, all right. Dave Shamoor, out of time, so great to see you again. And that's all we've got time for right now, here's Paul Murray.