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Ben and Andrew begin with a look at SpaceX before its June IPO. Topics include: Why the S-1 math that doesn’t quite pencil out for now, the madness of analyzing Musk companies generally, the company’s ultimate upside, and why the IPO is worth applauding regardless. Then: Questions on terrestrial solutions vs. data centers in space, the durability of SpaceX’s rocket monopoly, Nvidia’s earnings and the future of the ACIE market, why neoclouds are advertising on podcasts, and the op-ed from Cloudfl...
Ben and Andrew discuss the future of computing and its implications for the chip market, including what Cerebras is doing that’s different, why speed may no longer be a top priority for inference, good news for China’s AI ecosystem, the future for Nvidia, and questions on Pat Gelsinger’s role in Intel’s revival. From there: Both sides of the Anthropic-xAI deal, including Anthropic’s compute solution and the triumph of market principles, as well as the market’s message to Elon Musk and xAI, and t...
Ben and Andrew react to Amazon’s impressive earnings in AI with a cliffs notes history on AWS cloud computing strategy, how Amazon is returning to that playbook in AI, and why the Trainium bets look more reasonable than ever. From there: Understanding both sides of the OpenAI and Microsoft deal this week, including why OpenAI wants to be on AWS, and why Microsoft’s conflict of interest is now resolved. At the end: Extended thoughts on Meta Display glasses, the future of AR devices, the mother of...
Ben and Andrew begin with six emails on AI, including a question about the future of AI consumer demand, Gemini’s quiet few months, whether compute constraints should lead to price hikes, and divergent approaches to AGI at Anthropic and OpenAI. From there: An extended answer to a question about AI messaging in the face of widespread skepticism, an Einstein AI thought experiment, and extended thoughts on Amazon’s acquisition of Globalstar, Apple’s role, and what Amazon wants from LEO satellites. ...
Ben and Andrew begin with reactions to Anthropic’s Mythos announcement and Project Glasswing, including thoughts on the security risks, the business benefits of keeping this model private, lessons on the “Boy Who Cried Wolf,” and renewed focus on Anthropic’s relationship with the U.S. government. From there: Anthropic’s new deal with Broadcom and Google, a year of stunning Anthropic success that began in 2024, the threats that Anthropic poses to Microsoft, and where AI can and can’t help with ta...
Ben and Andrew begin with reactions to Anthropic’s Mythos announcement and Project Glasswing, including thoughts on the security risks, the business benefits of keeping this model private, lessons on the “Boy Who Cried Wolf,” and renewed focus on Anthropic’s relationship with the U.S. government. From there: Anthropic’s new deal with Broadcom and Google, a year of stunning Anthropic success that began in 2024, the threats that Anthropic poses to Microsoft, and where AI can and can’t help with ta...
Ben and Andrew begin with Q&A on Apple after 50 years, including thoughts on Steve Jobs weaknesses, putting iTunes on Windows, the best Apple ads, Chinese manufacturing counterfactuals, and tech company Mount Rushmore. From there: Thoughts on Apple’s AI bet and the downside risk, the signs that Cupertino sees AI as a disruptive technology, and extended thoughts on the Axios hack and why why AI will make security issue worse in the short-term, but may be the solution in the long run. At the e...
Ben and Andrew interrupt Stratechery’s spring vacation with a mailbag. First, they discuss the end of Sora, the difference between Sora and Instagram, and where the OpenAI/Microsoft parallels break down. Then: A great take on advertising, ChatGPT engagement farming, Formula 1’s new era, the NFL’s world takeover, and how NBC solved tape delay at the Olympics. At the end: A question about Vision Pro and wives, whether elementary schoolers should have smart phones, Elon’s continued adventures with ...
Ben and Andrew begin with the news that OpenAI is shifting away from “side quests” and allocating resources to the enterprise space, including Dropbox history to explain OpenAI’s present, lessons in the enterprise space generally (and what you learn in business school), and OpenAI taking cues from 1980s Microsoft. From there: Talking through Ben’s article on Monday, including the implications of agents and questions about integration as durable differentiation for Anthropic and OpenAI. At the en...
Ben and Andrew begin with the MacBook Neo, including Ben’s memory needs, Apple’s clever move to repurpose old iPhone chips, and the market for a $599 laptop. From there: A question about VisionOS, Andrew’s notes after six weeks of Vision Pro joy, and an extended discussion of Claude’s differentiation, harnessing, Microsoft’s AI strategy, and the future of integration and AI. At the end: A question on the end of coding language, what went wrong at the Washington Post, and being right points on AI...
This episode delves into the ongoing dispute between Anthropic and the US government, analyzing Dario Amodei's internal memo and its implications. Ben Thompson discusses the inherent blind spots within the AI community regarding property rights and the fundamental nature of law. The conversation explores the existential threat AI poses to democratic governance, emphasizing the government's monopoly on violence and the potential for a "fascist" outcome if AI is not aligned with democratic principles, drawing parallels to past public backlashes like net neutrality.
Ben and Andrew discuss the global memory shortage and answer a listener’s question: how did this happen? Topics include: What memory chips have in common with logic chips, why Intel left the memory market in the 1980s, how the international shipping market explains today’s shortage, how major players will address the problem going forward, possibly with some help from the Chinese. From there: A look at the “thin” future of AI computing as memory and performance takes precedent, AI computing that...
Ben and Andrew react to a killer round of earnings for Spotify and Daniel Ek’s final earnings call, including thoughts on Spotify’s transformation of the music industry, how a record company oligopoly helped create the definitive tech bundle, and why Spotify’s personalization requires an addendum to aggregation theory. From there: The difference between AI spending at Google and Amazon, why the AI buildout should be funded by debt, un-optimized tech companies, and the logic and risks of Amazon’s...
Ben and Andrew react to a bloodbath for public Saas companies with thoughts on the future of software in the AI era, beginning with why companies choose to outsource solutions to Saas companies today, and why those moats may be more durable than skeptics think. Then: Why SaaS skepticism remains fair, including an analogy to the newspapers in the ’90s, the absence of anti-fragility, a variety of headwinds that will impact pricing power, start-ups with superior cost structures, and looming consoli...
Unpacking the latest round of Meta earnings, including Wall Street’s about-face after last year’s CapEx squeamishness, whether Zuckerberg’s astronomical CapEx plans are more evidence he yearns to be more than an app maker, why Meta owes a thank you to Apple, Apple and Meta in the AI era, and a word about Instagram messages. Then: Are we in an “AI is a Bubble” bubble? Thoughts on mass adoption among software makers, demand that looks insatiable, product managers vs. engineers, and the era of perf...
TSMC’s pricing power in the AI era, a brief history of TSMC’s culture and CapEx decisions, and ongoing capacity constraints that should be pushing tech companies to build up competitors. Then: Thoughts on Netflix after Ben’s interview with co-CEO Greg Peters, including Wall Street’s concerns despite enormous success, whether and how the Warner Brothers acquisition could be a counter to YouTube, and the difference between Netflix content and user generated YouTube content. At the end: Questions a...
A call for Apple to finally be confident in its Vision Pro hardware, a brief history of broadcasting sports on TV, and yet another reminder that immersive live experiences should be the killer use case that brings users to the Vision Pro platform. Then: Q&A on the AVP, a question on the Siri and Gemini partnership, and thoughts Ben’s interview with United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby and on how tech spearheaded the company’s revival. At the end: Questions on Meta Compute and the end of Aggregati...
Andrew and Ben return from the holidays to discuss Ben’s Article AI and the Human Condition, and various responses to the preponderance of pessimistic forecasts for what AI will mean for the future, including thoughts on employment, sex, and the problem with trying to regulate human nature. Then: An email about OpenAI spawns discussion of cultural assumptions, market incentives vs. social incentives, and tech as an amoral force. At the end: Unpacking the logic of Nvidia’s deal with Groq, a regul...
Andrew and Ben begin with reactions to ChatGPT’s new image capabilities, a reminder of OpenAI’s strategic advantages vs. Google, Disney’s deal with Sora, and Gemini 3 Flash. From there: Netflix and its competition for attention, Netflix continues its foray into podcasting, and a question about movie theaters highlights costs that Netflix will have to internalize going forward. Then: Extended thoughts on SpaceX and the possibility of data centers in space, while a listener does some field reporti...
Andrew and Ben talk through Netflix’s proposed $72 billion deal to buy Warner Brothers, including the logic for Netflix, the frictionless nature of competition on the internet, and the threat that Netflix sees from YouTube. Then: David Zaslav’s windfall, and an argument about the regulatory questions that may scuttle this deal. At the end: The better business model between YouTube and Netflix, an emailer wonders why everyone is mourning the end of a Hollywood business that can’t succeed in the m...
Thoughts on OpenAI as Sam Altman declares a “Code Red” in response to Gemini 3, including real concerns about ChatGPT’s market position, why the missed ads opportunity is becoming more acute, and ominous Google history. From there: Context on Alan Dye’s departure from Apple, Meta’s emphasis on a new design language, and the Meta fundamentals regardless of AR/VR and its AI efforts. At the end: Amazon’s tranium chips and its AI efforts, Substack and the challenge of customer acquisition, defending...
The ways tech has improved suburban life, why urbanism may have peaked, and the first and second order effects of Tesla's full self-driving technology. Then: A Thanksgiving mailbag! Topics include: A note from the Gemini team, a correction on Llama 4, a hater’s question on the utility of ChatGPT group chats, Ben and Andrew share their daily use cases for AI and Ben shares his prompt, while an emailer wonders about a boss using Copilot to send holiday gifts. From there: A subject matter expert de...
Ben and Andrew begin with Gemini 3, what to make of its terrific benchmark results, and why TPUs provide Google a sustainable cost advantage in AI. From there: Google’s opportunity in the enterprise space, Apple’s white label deal, and questions about both OpenAI’s future growth and challenges that loom if ChatGPT can’t incorporate advertising. At the end: Thoughts on what Gemini means for Nvidia, Anthropic’s market in AI, why Amazon and OpenAI are losers of the Anthropic-Nvidia-Microsoft announ...
Andrew and Ben analyze SpaceX's nearly $20 billion in purchases by first touching on cell carrier history and the power dynamics that iPhones upended 20 years ago. Then: Understanding the SpaceX business and Musk's approach to strategy, what Starlink is trying to do with satellite internet on airlines, a power play with cell carriers that appears to have failed earlier this year, and now, a Plan B that may involve an acquisition and a bid to partner with Apple. At the end: Why Yann LeCun leaving...
Ben and Andrew begin with reactions to the OpenAI CFO discussing a federal "backstop" for prospective financing, as well as Sam Altman's recent comments about OpenAI's spending. Then: An emailer objects to the discussion of Bubble benefits, and questions about Meta's AI spending and a looming the AI backlash as hiring contracts and electricity prices rise. From there: Unpacking the announcement that Apple will use Gemini to power Siri, and two follow-ups to last week's discussion of "Too Big to ...
Discussing Ben's interview with Substrate CEO James Proud, including the "insane" challenge he's undertaken as Substrate attempts to compete with TSMC and ASML, and the ways in which a bubbly environment benefits innovation by incentivizing exactly that sort of moonshot. From there: Ben's thoughts on the "Too Big to Fail" era in tech that may be averted, reactions to the latest humanoid robot, and thoughts on both sides of the OpenAI-MIcrosoft announcement earlier this week. At the end: Taylor S...
Celebrating the return of the NBA with reactions to Inside the NBA on ESPN before turning to an extended explanation of the technology underlying the AWS outage this week and the history of US-East-1 in Northern Virginia. Then: Grappling with the trade-offs inherent to investing in resiliency to preserve the status quo, the risks that preservation comes at the expense of innovation, and Twitter as an object lesson. At the end: Questions on F1's deal with Apple, an F1 hater checks in, a sales pit...
Andrew and Ben begin by examining the various structural forces and business decisions that led the U.S. and the West to cede rare earth mining and refining to China, including reduced friction at the expense of resilience n a variety of areas, predatory pricing that pays extra dividends in the commodities business, and why Ben is keeping an eye on the Middle East in the months to come. From there: Reactions to the news that Spotify and Netflix are partnering and pulling podcasts off of YouTube,...
Thoughts on OpenAI after a month of infrastructure and partnership announcements, including the differences between OpenAI and a Mag7 company, Ben’s interview with Sam Altman this week, Apps in ChatGPT, and drawing on Windows, Apple, and WeChat to better understand the company’s strategy. At the end: Questions on Sora, the 90-9-1 law, and OpenAI’s approach to copyright, as well as some brief reactions to China's move to escalate curbs on rare earth exports. To email the show: email@sharptech.fm ...
Andrew and Ben begin with reactions to OpenAI's Sora 2, a new Sora app, and more thoughts on last week’s ‘Vibes’ release from MetaAI. Topics include: Parallels between Sora 2 and the GPT 3.5 release in 2022, responding to a sample of disgusted MetaAI 'Vibes' reactions, why OpenAI is investing in short form video, why the threat to Meta is clearer than ever, and fair questions about Mark Zuckerberg's leadership after the last several years. At the end: TikTok’s business prospects and security con...
