¶ Intro / Opening
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet. We are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Noman and I am joined as always by my bff, my companion, my compadrey, my co host professional Better Simon Hunter Eado.
Simon, Chad feel much better today, not as angry, not on edge. I was very very on edge on Tuesday. Today. I feel relaxed, I feel feel much better. All these bad losses shall pass, and thank god that one finally passed.
We did have some concern from commenters and tweeters and texters about your state of mind on Tuesday, so I'm glad to hear that's unprompted.
Unprompted I was.
I was trying not to show it. I was so so mad and miserable. I did my best. I hopefully it didn't come across as just a very bitter old man.
No, it came acros across as a fan, which at the end of the day, that's what we are. We do have one, Simon, we have one major major correction to make on the show, because last Tuesday, I said to you that one of my favorite lines from one of my favorite movies, Planes, Trains, and Automobiles is when Steve Martin's character and John Candy's character are.
In the back of a truck.
Riding through Kansas in the winter to get home for Thanksgiving, and Steve Martin says to John Candy, how cold do you think it is? And John Candy deadpans and just says one. And You responded with, surely you can't be serious.
Can you fly this plane and land it? Surely you can't be serious? I am serious, and don't call me surely.
Now.
Look, I don't know what I was thinking in the moment. In the moment, I knew that that line was from Airplane because, like anyone my age, I watched that movie in my VCR in the VCR in my parents' room on VHS eight thousand times, and like anyone else my age, they probably paused it in one very particular scene when everyone believes the plane is going down. There's one moment that I know everyone paused every single time. Shame on me, because in the moment I thought, well, maybe they periodied
that line in Planes, Trains and Automobiles. I can't remember, but I thought I knew it was from Airplane, and I didn't correct you, so shame on me.
It's shameful. But here's the worst part. Matt Mitchell, who Spotify wrapped Age is probably eighty five years.
Older than mine, lives in Milwaukee, no joke, lives next
¶ START
door to the Zucker brothers who wrote Airplane directed The Naked Gun with Leslie Nielsen. He can literally see the house they grew up in because it is next door to where he lives. Even he didn't catch it. For that, we owe everybody an apology.
Both are great movies.
Both are great movies. I mean, look, as they say an airplane, Shane and I. They bought their ticket. They knew what they were getting into. I say, let them crash. Everybody who listens to this podcast knew what they were getting into. Shame on me, Shame on Matt for not correcting it, Shame on the listeners for signing up for this trek. Anyways, this is our Thursday Week fifteen episodes, and we're going to get down closer on our quest
for the final five picks. Reminder subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify, let's get into this thing. Every week, we're going to give our picks. Every week, we're going to get calls from our friends in the wise guy community. They are going to agree, they are going to disagree. They are never going to be shy about sharing their opinions. Simon, it is time for sharp calls.
What do we got, brother, Let's start with a Thursday. A couple of pros I really respect all over Atlanta. I can join them. I get where they're coming from. You know, just Baker doesn't blow teams out. They tend to play really close games, and even when they're a much better team, it seems like they let these bad
teams back into it. So I'm gonna end up just probably taking a high position on the money line and throw it in with some other type of bet, you know, put them with their or whoever the Eagles, but I guess the spread. I'll stay away from the Bucks. I just I have too much respect for these guys and I get what they're saying. Right. It's a unique spot for Atlanta. I think they've lost like five straight. They're just totally undervalued, and just like everyone else, I still
can overvalue this Bucks team. Who is also feel like they haven't covered in a month.
So look, they are getting Mike Evans back. And I do think, I do think there's a difference between undervalued, and we'll get to that. I apologize for interrupting sharp calls. We'll get to that undervalued, between teams that are undervalued because of bad spots and teams that are undervalued or properly valued because they're just not very good anymore.
Another game was on the other side of tons of love for New England, which I expected that I knew there's gonna be a lot of professional love. And that's another game We're going to dive into a ton of underlying numbers and trends that do favor this Patriots team in many ways. And the Bills touched plus one and a half at a couple of books yesterday and then got hammered hammered back to minus one and a half.
So it's pretty the line is in the sand here where it's I think it's gonna hold out what it is now. The professionals obviously taken the stand that tons of pros out there waiting for the Bills to go to a dog like I have been talking about, and they hit that number, and it feels like it's gonna stay where it is. So yeah, tons of love by the pros for this Patriots team, for the games they agree with us, Chad love that love the Rams. I mean we've talked that, we're gonna talk about that one
Green Bay. You know, tons of love for them, the Chiefs, tons of love for them. And shockingly, and what I thought would be a bigger spot by the professionals, it's not as much love on that Saints team, which I really like that number. I think it is just a unique spot. You have the Rams, I mean, not the Rams, the Saints coming off such an emotional road win. Yeah, maybe people don't trust that with this young quarterback, but
we talked about it. I just there's so I'm gonna give out all the numbers about Carolina and then being favorites, but it's it feels like a very unique spot. It's it's a tough game to Andycap for sure, so the last one to round it out, tons and tons of love for this bande And unfortunately we're never gonna get the three. I thought we would get back to the three touched one and a half. Then Joe Burrow had
this very somber interview. I know it sounds stupid, but literally you can watch in real time the number go back to two and a half after his interview, which I thought was very funny. People are taking a positions simply off a really somber interview, So those ones jumped out. You know, the Chicago Cleveland game is very split between professionals and you know, the dogs. This week there's some really big ones like the Raiders, the Seahawks game with
the Colts. Like I know, pros are taking positions on those big dogs. The only one I really thicked they're really confident is that Raiders number. They just they're taking it just because we'll talk about that game we need to.
¶ SHARP CALLS
But basically, this Eagles defense have played like seventy snaps per game three straight weeks. Now they're coming off a sure week overtime game coming home statistically is not a good spot. But yeah, really interesting week because all these big spreads, and maybe I'm missing it right, I'm not really loving these big dogs, but tons of pros I've talked to they really like a lot of these big dog numbers.
It's interesting. I'm with you on the big dogs.
It hasn't been any of my focus this week other than that Raiders game. I wanted to find a way to get the Jets not going to get there. Wanted to find a way to get the Colts not going to get there. We will get to one of the bigger numbers, not the biggest of the numbers, but before we get to our first game. Three quick things about the freeze Sharper Square Pro Football Pick Them Contest, which is officially live at Sharpersquare dot the volume dot com.
Number one is a reminder it's only one entry per person. If you submit multiple entries try to manipulate the system, you will be ineligible for the grand prize.
Number two.
If you're in this contest and don't think you can win, that is crazy because last year our contest had a lot more people. It wasn't won by a professional gambler. Okay, it wasn't won by some hot shot handicapper. It was won by a rancher from bow Bells, North Dakota who came on the show. Lovely Dude said he was going to use all of his prize money to buy more cattle. Good for him. The price of cattle has three x since we did that show. I hope the guy is just swimming in cow value right now in.
Bow Bells, North Dakota.
Three is a question from producer Matt Our contest is nine weeks long, five picks per week. This is forty five available wins in total. Out of forty five, how many wins do you our listeners think it will take to win the grand prize. Matt's prediction, he's expecting someone to go on a bit of a heater, is that the top finisher will end with a record of thirty five and ten seventy eight percent.
So all right, let's get into it.
You talked about Kansas City, Los Angeles Chargers visiting. We first started talking about this one, I think on Sunday it was at three and a half.
By Tuesday it was at four. It's now at five. A lot of other books are five and a half.
By the middle of yesterday I completely came around to your position. I just decided a everything you were saying was right. There is going to be extreme weather. The Chargers have so many offensive line issues. So much bad luck is befalling the Chiefs, whether it's bobbled passes, bad calls, all the stuff. That went their way for seventeen straight close games. So I'm with you, brother, I'm on the Chiefs. I bet him, I bet him. I got the line I got with four and a half. I did not
get the three and a half or the four. I got the four and a half because I waited too long. But I still went in on it. I'm with you, I'm with you, and I love it. Let's put it in a contest.
Yeah, in normal circumstances, we would be all over the Chargers. This is an automatic Chargers play. This is a Chargers line, and you know, justin Herbert as a dog, very profitable. I believe you know. I'll look through the numbers here, but we kind of blindly bet him in this exact spot, right, But this is what we talked about. This is unique. This man only has one hand without you know, his offensive line. Even the backups got hurt in the Eagles game,
like they lost. I think they're a third string right tackle in the Eagles game. So just a nightmare. But again, I want to give out these numbers just because in the future when I tell people we just you blindly bet Herbert in the spot, it's because he tends to be really great as a dog in the spot. So when the line is above three and a half in his career, eleven to two and one against the spread Herbert, which is really impressive. You know, you think back to
what's the matchup with Andy Reid and Harrball. Harrball, He's four and zero against the spread when he plays against Andy Reid in his career. So they do have their
number this Chiefs team. But we're we're talking about a unique spot here and this in the fact that what we just talked about, right, it's all the injuries to Herbert and this team and even going back and rewatching the Eagles game, Herbert, you know, try to do so much with his legs, but even when he couldn't, you're trying to pass the ball downfield, his guys just could not get any separation. And that was really stood out to me as they're just the wide receivers are not
getting open for him. And you know, Keenan Allen does the best he can. He can get open in a really quick window, but he's not really someone that's going to burn some of his legs obviously. He's someone that's much older now and Lad McConkie's been kind of disappointing this season for them, So it's it feels like a
really bad spot for this Chargers team. And you talk a little about this Chiefs team, it's got a flip at some point, right They they basically won seventeen consecutive one score games and now this year they're one and six oh and seven against the spread. So it's not the best chat we've been to, a little bit of a scary spot, but I do have to trust the fact that we have a good number. It's still under six people listeners can still get under six, where I
think it's a good number. And I just have major questions about this Chargers offense with the injury to Herbert. I just the man is one handed and he's gonna
¶ LA CHARGERS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
be outdoors in the elements. It's just I think it's too much to overcome Chad. So yeah, I feel gross doing it, but feels like this is these X spot we have to take the Chiefs.
I don't feel that gross.
It's weird even after all those numbers. I mean, Herbert's are covering God as a dog man.
I don't feel that gross because this team, this offensive line is in such bad shape. And we've seen what the Chiefs can do when they're able to get pressure, and how dominant Chris Jones can be, and I feel like they've hit rock bottom. It is a team of champions that has hit rock bottom.
The look on.
Travis Kelsey's face, we talk about so Joe Burrow in his press conference somber Travis Kelce. I find him to be imminently likable. I think he's handled his career brilliantly. He seems to be very well liked by his teammates, and he just looked so sad and a prideful athlete trying to figure out what the fuck is going on and why am I not making any of the plays
I used to be able to make. And I think that they're going to figure something out in this game that allows them to execute in a way where they're not going to be making the same mistakes, especially in conditions that will favor them. So, yeah, the performance by that Chargers offensive line was so bad they're going to need to pull out all the stops to protect Justin Herbert in this game. Yeah, I'm with you. I'm with you, you and I Campadres. You knowwhere else were Campadres, Buffalo
Bill's one point favorites over the New England Patriots. At the end of the day, it's a bet on Josh Allen.
Alert here from Josh Allen.
Looking for He's got it.
He's a r he's a timer, he's a football.
Player, through and through.
Him here, but it's nothing.
There we go, Josh.
He drugs an excuse me touchdown?
How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone? Goodness, there's no fears, no way he was being tons down.
He's still going, Oh my god. The demands to do something about this out of reaches man making.
Louder and louder.
Every scenario you can think of.
You talk about trends. Josh Allen off a lost Josh Allen is a favorite of less than three. All of it favors Josh Allen. Look back to their game on October fifth, which is when the Patriots were really starting to roll. It's when people start to recognize, oh, maybe this team isn't terrible. It's what got them into the position they're in. There were so many mistakes by the Bills in that game. They easily could have won that game.
That was a field goal game, and you're still getting a Patriots team now that is at the peak of its value, that has everyone behind them, that is still missing key components on the offensive line, whose rush defense is getting a little bit worse statistically as the season goes on. I can see why this game is split between the wise guys. But my opinion stands Buffalo Bills.
Yeah, I think we're both the mentality, it's really us having blind faith and trust in Josh Allen this exact same spot against the young and upcoming team. And this is how things do happen though in football, right the team does eventually break through, the person who dominated the division tends to relinkish that powers. And this is a unique spot for this this Patriots team. And just when I dove into the trends too, I couldn't believe how much they favor Vrabel. I knew Vrabel was good after
a bye week. What do you think his record is after a bye week? Chat? I didn't know.
Is this good seventeen or no?
I wish Rabel haven't been around that long. He is six and one straight up and against the spread off of bye week, which that's really impressive for a guy that spent his first seven of those years in Tennessee. So that's that's probably the most unique stat to me of him, is just the fact that he gets his guys up for these type of matchups. And so when you know, I dove into even more basically this exact
spot for teams, which again it's a unique spot. It's you know, a ten day they've won ten straight games,
¶ BUFFALO BILLS VS. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
the Patriots, they are now a home dog at home. It's only happened like two times in the last like twenty years, basically chat and the only other time has happened with two starters was Pittsburgh. It was Roethlisberger against Tom Brady and Brady basically put up forty one. I
think he beat him by like thirteen points. So it was unique spot, right, Brady was on the road as a favorite against Ben Roethlisberger as a home dog after you know, a bunch of wins, and I remember that game, right, I just remember the Killer Bees and how much hype there was and Brady just went in there and just dominated that game. So we're kind of banking on that here with Josh Allen, Right, I think the general public is joining us. I thought this would be a more
public side. This Patrios team. It really has not worked out that way with the money. And you know, the more I dove into it, the more I was like, oh my god, all this stuff is pointing me to this Patriots side. But I just had to trust Josh Allen the fact that he did lose them early in the year and it's a unique thing where he tends
to not lose two games in a row. And we're about the f find out what they're going to be the trendsetter now for the next ten years between the Drake May Josh Allen matchup, because right now, Drake Mays three and zero against the spread against Josh Allen, which is pretty wild to think because last year the Patriots were terrible. They were terrible last year, and the fact that he's covered both games last year and they started this year with a cover and a win out right
on the road in Buffalo. Maybe I am undervalue in this Patriots team continuously. But I just can't get over the they have. Like Chad said, they have so many weaknesses and holes right now that can be exploited. They just have not faced any teams that can exploit those weaknesses. So I love this one just like you love I love the Bills. I think we're getting a great number, but I could not get over those vable stats after
a bye week. Maybe I'm stepping into here, but I think this guy's due for aggression to the meme with those type of numbers. That's just insane, those kind of numbers.
We're both stepping in it.
This is a season making game for either of these teams. It's a playoff. It's a playoff game, it really is. So is Josh Allen the reigning MVP. Do they have a dominant running does it travel well? All those things still exist. I'm going to bet on Josh Allen. We are going to bet on Josh Allen. Will we bet on the Arizona Cardinals? Who are that nine and a half? Simon is just holding on against the Houston Texans.
It's juiced.
I think by Sunday it's going to get to ten. I think by Sunday, when the public rolls in and starts betting, we're going to see that number increase. Still sitting at nine and a half, though classic Bilow Sell high game right, the line has not budged, even though all the bets are coming in on the Texans. That tells you that there's resistance from the wise guys. They're betting on the Cardinals. I have not played this game yet. I'm still waiting for it to get to ten. I
don't know if it'll make our contest. I think there's a couple other underdogs we like a little bit more. But are you tempted at all by the reeling, creating, confused, lacking in defense, struggling Arizona Cardinals.
Yeah, and this could be the type of game where if you're if you don't really love either side, you can, Like we've talked about a little bit the beginning of the year, it's a good bet that just bindly brought blindly bet the under in East Texas game, just because their offenses so question on, their defense is so dominant. And you know, this year has lived up to that. Right. They're ten and three to the under this season, even going back his last twenty two starts CJ, He's seventeen
and five to the under. So if you if you don't like either side, I guess that's the move. But I I do really like the Cardinals here. I think off the top of my head, I can think of one other time the Texans were this pick of favor with CJ. I believe they are eight or an eight
and a half point favorite against the Tennessee Titans. They lost that game outright, So just a little perspective of like, Okay, the reason that you haven't seen the Texans this pick a favorite, especially with CJ, is just they tend to not be deserving of it or perform. And your betters have taken that, you know, taken that where it's like anytime she's been a big dog or a big favorite, I should say he's been bet down. That's why this
number is. No, he's never had a number this big, and this is a unique spot where that's that's how dead the Cardinals are to the general public. They're just totally off of this team, totally leaving them for dead. And I'm just looking at the numbers. Yes, this is not a good matchup for Brissette, right you dive into it. This is going to be a game where he's going to be thrown off his point a lot where he wants to throw from in the pocket, he will be
moved a lot. That's just that's just gonna be the deal of this Texas team. They just have one of the best pass rushes in all football, and we've seen that off season, right they just have been dominant rushing the quarterbacks. So you know, like Chad said, I'm not going to force this one in. I do like the Cardinals, but I'm with you. It's I'm still taking the nine
and a half, but the ten. That's why I feel more confident, just because I just have such leaking confidence right now, not so much in Brissett, but just the head coach. I just feel like he's totally lost his locker room in the Cardinals. And I'm interesting how they end this next four games because we've seen a lot of reports, a lot of really respectable guys in the media saying he might be out, like it might be done. Him and Coyler might be both out the door come
the end of the season. So it's gonna be interesting how these teams plays for them the next four games after getting just absolutely blown out their past past.
Feel we do owe the people of brass balls so we can we can think about this one. I have an idea. You and I forgot to discuss this before we came on the air. I have an idea of what I think brass balls should be. It's not it's not this game. I'll be curious to see if you and I agree on it. So let's continue. Let's put a pin in that. It's just a reminder for both of us. Cincinnati two and a half point underdogs at Baltimore.
I don't think this is gonna make it, but it's It was a newsworthy game to begin with, because it's Cincinnati and Baltimore and it's just a great matchup. But it's also a great matchup of teams that are reeling. And I'm sorry, it's Baltimore Cincinnati, by the way, not Baltimore.
Not Cincinnati at Baltimore.
And I can't really get there on either team right now.
Joe is so sad.
Lamar hasn't really been playing as well as we expected him to. The defenses for both teams are pretty bad. I find no edge here. I definitely don't want to play it in the contest. I just wanted to bring it up because he's in sharp calls and Joe's feeling blue. He's not Joe cool, he's Joe blue.
Yeah, And I took a little bit a shame on me.
I know.
I usually don't like just continuously betting guys who are underdogs, because eventually, like you said, it's probably gonna go the other way. But Joe Burrow as a dog, he just covers. And I've given out those numbers, especially when he gets above three, and this number is heading that way. Like since we've been talking the numbers moving the three at a couple of books, so I talked about this number went
down to one and a half. Joe Burrow gave the most somber, depressing interview ever, talking about he's not having fun anymore and he doesn't know if he loves the game as much as he used to. Now the number is moving up to three, so I'll check. Maybe there's something I'm missing, maybe there's an injury I don't know about. But everything I've seen this feels like two teams going in totally different directions. Like this Ravens team. We keep thinking they're gonna figure it out and be that team
we saw these last five six years. Right, they're gonna figure it out, But you keep looking at it the under Alane number. It's just Lamar is not as good. He simply is not as good as he's been in previous years. And yeah, that game unlucky, right, they probably
¶ ARIZONA CARDINALS VS. HOUSTON TEXANS
should have won it, decided by the referees, whatever you want to say. They we're not gonna cover that game. So that's that's another game with the market overvalue in them. And it feels like it's going the same way here. Like if this is now up to three, I kind of love the Bengals. If they get the three and a half in our contest, we're gonna have a real conversation comes Sunday. So just look at all the different metrics. Even when Lamar and this Ravens team were dominant, absolutely dominant,
they've struggled against the NFC North. He's five and nine against the spread against his division. When he's on the road, he's three and five against the spread in his division. So Lamar, through his dominant years, he's always struggled with his own divisional opponents. And we've saw them just play you know a couple of weeks ago. The Bengals are gonna be able to move the ball. We have no doubt about that. We just is Lamar going to show up and move the ball against his Bengals defense. That
is super suspect he should be able to. Yeah, but I think Joe's gonna keep us in this one. So I'm with you. I'm not going to force it. I'm not going to force it two and a half because I do think people listening to this you'll keep getting a better number, and there are threes out there. So right now two and a half, I'm with you. I wouldn't make this into the contest, but three and a half, that's gonna be a real conversation with Joe. He's just as a dog. I talk about a dog bigger than three.
He's nineteen to three against the spread, So it's just that's just an incredible number. And he's two and zero this season since he's been back as a dog bigger than three.
Simon, The Cleveland Browns are visiting the Chicago Bears, and that number has stayed at seven and a half at it yet, let me ask you this, though it's going to be so cold in Chicago, both teams are going to want to run the ball. This is not going to be a we said this last week, It's not going to be a Shador Sanders game. It's it's going to be a Cleveland Browns defense game this week. It's not going to be a Shador Sanders game. It's going
to be a Quinche on Judskins game. It's going to be an amazing rush offense against one of the best rush defenses. It's going to be what can be an effective rush offense against in the Bears, one of the worst rush defenses. Do we ignore the line value because we are in love with the Bears? Do we not play a game that we would nine times out of ten play because we lost with the Browns the past week by betting on their defense.
Isn't this what we do on this show? Backing the Browns?
Yeah, I'm with you, Like I've come around, I'm going to back the Browns. I don't feel good about it.
I'm just I am Yeah, I'm just worried. They've quit on their coach end this season and we're basically been this one because the Browns, as bad as they've been this year, they've won a bunch of games outright, when then the spread is above seven and a half, like they've been pretty dominant for some reason, when they're big underdogs, and you know, as a Bears fan, this is by far the biggest spread of Kailbillim's career, he's never been
a seven a half point favorite, so unique spot. The trends obviously hate the Chicago in this spot, just like they did last week. Right, I gave you those stats. I think they're one and eleven against the spread against Green Bay. Well it's not much better the week after they played Green Bay. So since twenty nineteen, green Bay
one eight and one against the spread. After they've played the Packers when they're a favorite, the following game, they're zero and three against the spread, So, you know, not ideal. It seems like the type of thing where they put so much emotion. So much of that divisional game makes sense, right, especially now they're playing the Browns. Why wouldn't they have a letdown game? Right? This is not a game that's it's gonna be tough to get up to, let alone.
Chad said, They're going to be walking outside, it's gonna be hitting in the face minus ten degrees and wind chill. It's going to be a truly miserable experience that game.
¶ BALTIMORE RAVENS VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS
So I love it, like this is my favorite type of football games, the old school frozen field and it's just the best. So I'll be with you on this Cleveland side. They're just like I said, they just they're making me lea confidence. I just can't believe how bad the defense was against Tennessee last week against the run. It was just alarming because they've been so dominant this season. So try not to overreact. We expect to Cleveland to bounce back here, especially defensively, but my god, I'm happy
if we can avoid this one other contests. Jet.
I don't have it making the contest right now. I think there's other games. It's also an interesting brass balls opportunity. It's not where I want to land on brass balls. I got another one that's a contender, but I just want to raise it that you both like the Browns. I haven't pulled the trigger on it yet. I'm a little bit nervous about it, but it's there. It's there for the taking, and it's what we would normally do. Detroit visiting Los Angeles. Rams talked about it under sharp calls.
This was a game you quietly talked about on Tuesday with like a weird We've been doing this a long time and I get like you mentioned a game.
You say it in a way that feels.
Like you almost don't want me to hear it, like you like it so much, you just want to say you like it because you're obligated to say truthful information and your honest opinions on this show. But you'd prefer nobody hear it at all. That was my takeaway from the rams. The rams were five and a half. That line's moving, it's moving in the rams direction. It's as six at hard Rock. I've seen some six and a half pop up. Am I misinterpreting this? Am I over?
Am? I? Am I putting too much into it?
No, not at all. I just again, this is a weird, a weird job. It's a load of a juggling act. I have people that pay. I know people don't believe it, but people do pay in same amount of money for my picks. I always have to give them the best of the number, especially when if I like a game a lot. So yeah, it was a little bit of tongue in cheek. I showed my hand a little bit
that I really love this spot. I didn't want to say too much of because I didn't want people to miss the best of the number, which it's going now. Like you said, it's it's hitting six almost every book, So hopefully my client's got hopefully fans of the show got it. But yeah, I love the spot. I love the situation this Lions team. Sure can they cover and win this game like they have the last four years with Campbell and the golf combo. Yeah, but we've been
talking about it. Just it's not hitting like it used to. There is something different about this team, and other than just the injuries, I feel like we've seen the Ben Johnson effect really affect this team. They're just not the same offensively spec and you have a guy like Dan Campbell going for it every time he can on fourth and two, fourth and three. And I've been thinking about situationally where they're on the field or what the best
move is. And I can give all the stats if you want about how great Golf is as a dog. Right we know him and Campbell four point hunderdog or more seventeen to three against the spread. You know, they
¶ CLEVELAND BROWNS VS. CHICAGO BEARS
just they cover in this exact spot. It's what they've done these last four years together. And I get that, but I've talked about I just think there's something different, and it's it's mcveigh's month. It's December. McVeigh since twenty twenty one, sixteen to three against the spread in December. The matchup, when I really break it down look into it, I just see so many advantages for this Rams team to attack this offensive line of Detroit. On the flip side,
you know, praise to the Detroit run defense. I think they haven't had one hundred rusher all season and they've been really dominating that aspect. But I think it's because their secondary is so bad. Why would teams run it where you can just pick up trunk yards every time you drop back? And I think Pooka right now is if he's not the number one receiver in the league because of you know, Jackson Smith and Jigba, he's number two in all the categories. He has the most receptions,
like yards, all that stuff. He's right behind JSN. And on the flip side, we've talked with DeVante Adams. He's probably what the fourth or fifth best receiver in football. He's got like fourteen touchdowns. So it's like it talk about a dream scenario for the stafford in this matchup indoors at home? Could she be in a shootout?
Right?
If you want to take a position in that way. But I just feel like this type of game where they're gonna try to take away Gibbs, make Golf beat him downfield, and we've seen it. Golf has not done well with pressure in his face, and it's the exact type of game they'll get that. So yeah, I honestly wanted to make this our our bet, but unfortunately it's moved too much, like it's it's minus six, which I'm
still betting to six. But if this was five and a half, chat would I think we probably could agreed on this being the pick for the day. But it's no.
Yeah, it's not gonna be a brass balls. I think we're gonna have to do something even brass and ballsier for brass balls. But we both love the Rams here. We both got into the Rams five and a half. I hope everyone was listening on Tuesday, got the five and a half. If you can get the six, great get the six that you didn't get the best of it, but you know it's still a good number. The matchup here to me, you just said is the key. I don't know what defense the Rams the Lions are going
to play like they tried playing zone. It was a little bit more effective against the Cowboys, but the Rams are not the Cowboys, like they can do it all. Matthew Stafford is so good right now. Puka Nakua is so good right now. They're playing that thirteen personnel. They can deceive teams in so many different ways. They can power run game, they can find guys open in the middle of that zone. If that's what the Lions decided to play, which they really haven't. They've done it once
this whole season. They're a Mando man team, and Stafford eats up Manda Man. So it's a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario defensively for the Lions, who have lost one of their best defensive players in Brian Branch. Carolina at the New Orleans Saints. The New Orleans Saints plus two and a half, this was Simon says, there were some threes available right after we got off the air on Tuesday. For much of Tuesday, there was some threes there. It's back down to two and a half.
I don't I don't think it's gonna last. So, I mean, I don't think the threes will. I think it could get back to three, but I don't think the threes are gonna last.
Uh. We hate betting against the Panthers.
We hate it, especially when they got a chance to
¶ DETROIT LIONS VS. LA RAMS
take control of the NFC South, the Darlings, the team that we've loved for years.
But we're both on the Saints here.
Yeah, I think I think threes will pop just because the books they're getting so much Panthers money. I think they're gonna need some Saints money and the only way they're going to get is bipoping that three. Right, not people are going to force and take the two and a half until Sunday when they need to. It's last minute. I think throughout the week you should see some three spop up. And you know it's just because who's betting
the Saints, right, It's it's kind of a spy. You don't really want to be back then, Like from the general public's perspective, because they just went a really tough divisional game now coming home. You know, anybody can look at these numbers, but I was alarmed when the buddy sent me these numbers about the Saints team. And I gave you the stat right there last week on the road individual as an underdog, they're eight now nine and
oh on the road. God, their home stats are terrible. Chat, I cannot believe how bad these dats are since twenty twenty is an underdog at home the Saints four and seventeen straight up, five and sixteen against the spread. That's I mean, that's the worst mark in the NFL of any team, right.
But simon, what is Bryce Young on the road as a as a favorite?
Yeah, he's never covered? Yeah, I just I just that was just a simple Saint stat's how bad they've been. So I love this one. Like you just said, it's two it's too immovable objects meeting and something's got to give, right, So you said it Bryce Young in his early career, he's only been a favorite so many times, and you know, eleven times he's been a straight up favorite. He is not covered or won any of those games. He's zero
and eleven. So you're right, it's a unique spot. I just want people to get to three just because of how bad that saints the Saints team. But we're gonna need every point we can get. But I've talked about the Saints team surprisingly, you know, even going back to twenty twenty, they've always matched up really well. Against the Panthers. Asn't matter if it was Derek Carr or Taysom Hill
at quarterback. They've just had a rotation of guys. It's they've they've covered, They've played really well against the Panthers team, so unique spot. Like you said, it's a game I'm leaking a little bit of confidence on, which is you know, just part of it. The more you dive into the Saints team, it's just like, my god, how how do they keep winning? And I'm not a couple people ask me about Shuck because he is two hundred and one
to win Rookie of the Year. It really is just about the way their their season can play out, right. It's not do I really think this kid's gonna bet beat out ted Aron McMillan or Dart Probably not right if you go look at those guys numbers much better. It's really just about how they end their season. The Saints. Basically, if they win this game, they have kind of a cake walk, Chad and in there's like outside chance scenario. You know, the fact they play the Jets next week.
That's a big deal, right, Like, Okay, say they win those two games. Now he's got the most wins of all the rookie quarterbacks r he's up to five wins. That's not nothing. So just to me, people asked thembout, They're like, are you really betting two hundred to one on Chuck to win Rookie of the Year. It's just an outside shot he gets. If he can beat the Panthers, that'd be pretty crazy. Then he beats the Jets again, not as crazy. Then he's at Tennessee, that's a possibility,
outplays the other first number one overall pick. And then he's at Atlanta. So it's like, none of those teams are juggernauts. There is a path for Schuck to go four and oh three and one and put up some good numbers. I'll bet that two hundred to one, Like, I'll take those odds third ten bucks on it. Why not If you want to get really weird, you can throw him in there with McCaffrey, who is the eighteen oh one to be Offensive Player of the Year. He
might be a thousand thousand season. Like, you can bet those two together. All of a sudden you have three hundred to one, Like, you can really get fun with it with these long shot odds. So I had a couple of people ask for like, are you really betting Shuck the win Rookie of the Year. I don't really believe it. I just when I saw that schedule, it's
like I squin in my eyes a little bit. I'm like, I can see a path for three and one, and if you can go six touchdowns one turnover in that stretch, there's a path room to get a rook of the Year. So just something to keep in mind if you're looking for a fun lung shot future have a good time.
Throw the Chiefs to make the playoffs in there too. Why not.
That's the craziest one of all. It's probably the worst odds.
Just go for it. Green Bay at Denver.
This was Chad's choice, the Green Bay Packers minus two.
I think that the Packers.
You and I had been struggling with the Packers all year because all of the advanced metrics keep saying how great they are.
But they hadn't seemed dominant on the field.
Right.
They were nine to three to one heading into that Bears game, And what I saw in that Bears game was just a complete team. Now, the Bears were able to run the ball in the second half, but how they were able to cover overall, and the way Jordan Love was able to respond to pressure, the fact they've gotten so many of their receivers back.
I love this roster. I love the speed in their defense.
I love the way Jordan Love throws against man coverage,
¶ CAROLINA PANTHERS VS. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
which is what the Broncos are going to play. They're going to go against single high coverage, which is what Jordan Love loves to throw against. Everything about this matchup to me, I feel like I'm getting about a point of value. I think that the Packers should be three point favorites because I think the ultimate decision here coaching is even defense probably even. I think the difference is the quarterback, and that's worth a lot to me. Give me the Greeny Bad Packers two points favorites.
Well, yeah, we both love the Packers a game that no matter what, if it was two and a half, I'd be all over it. Not gonna let the hooks carry me off. Just think matchup wise, they're the better team. They should probably be minus three and tons of respect by the professionals on this Broncos team right for good reason. They they're weally well coached. They've really grind out a
lot of these games. And we've talked about bo Nicks as much as he's regressed in some people's eyes this year, he's been incredible in these fourth quarters, leading this team to come back wins, and it's just been really impressive. And you know, I gave out that amazing stat I have a ingrams. It's just a unique spot. This is another team just like the Patriots. They've won ten straight grames the Broncos and now they are a home underdog. So since two thousand and five, eight teams have closed
an underdog in this exact spot. Two five and one against has spread these teams. So they'll let you know right there, the Broncos, this is not a good spot. You might think it is. You're getting at a home dog here, you're you're fired up, but long term it's just a loser. The books are kind of telling you right the profession are ton here. Which team is the better team? They just throughout the records rights, it matters what happens on the field, and you've seen it this year.
In my opinion, the NFC to me is just a better problem than the AFC. Like the AFC, some of these teams have so many more weaknesses in the NFC, and we talked there's something missing with this Green Bay team. I don't know if the Broncos are the type of team that can exploit those type of scenarios. So I really do love them here. And you know, if it gets the three, I get if you have some type of hesitation there, but hopefully you can get the two. The minus two and a half there should be up
there still by Sunday. I just think professional money. Anytime Broncos touch a three, they'll hit it. So I'm hoping people won't be scared off by this one. I really love the Packers in the spot.
We're total agreement here.
There's twos and two and a half's out there if you're not in a hard rock state, so definitely look around. But yeah, we're the Packers are going to be in the contest.
There's not And I did have a chace that I didn't want to give out just because Jay colors in the stat Packers are one in seven in their history on the road in Denver. The only win came back in two thousand and seven in overtime, Brett fav beaten Jay Cutler.
As Jay Culer would say, don't care.
Last game on the board that I want to talk about I think should be our brass balls Better the Week. Let's do it, the Minnesota Vikings visiting the Dallas Cowboys. Are you with me? Are you with me?
On the Minnesota Vikings?
Love the Minnesota Vikings? Should we make it our brass balls presented by hard Rock Bet.
Still it definitely balls?
You bet all right?
Minnesota Vikings plus six at hard Rock Bets against the Dallas Cowboys. That is our brass balls Better the Week, presented by hard Rock Bet.
You know what it takes. It takes brass balls.
Forget about JJ McCarthy for a second. The Vikings defense has been playing lights out the past few weeks, just.
Getting better and better and better.
And to me, what they can do to potentially neutralize Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys offense versus what the Cowboys can do to defend against anything that the Vikings are going to do is so much greater that I have to believe in what I've seen. When Kevin O'Connell can just tell his quarterback and put him in a halfway decent position against a defense that is as bad as the one they just played in Washington, So I'm buying the Minnesota Vikings.
I don't hate it. Like I've talked a little bit about it, this is a game I early bet the Vikings and it's kind of the what you talked about it. It's really a bet on their defense and this matchup that I do think they'll be able to get stops against the Cowboys. On the flip side, you know, as bad as JJ's looked, you've seen him when he's on script. They can move the ball really well. And this is a great de defense for Kosu de script against There's just a lot of things you can take advantage of.
So you know, it's a rare opportunity you have. A Dallas Cowboys team is a big favorite against what we
¶ GREEN BAY PACKERS VS. DENVER BRONCOS
consider still being an undervalued Vikings team, and when you really break it down, they're not that different really. I mean, as great as Dak has been, you know, these two teams just aren't that different. And the public perceives is totally different.
Right.
I think you can see the numbers I'm looking at, which is basically eighty percent of the best eighty percent of the money all that's just coming on this Dallas Cowboys team, and it is a unique spot back in Minnesota that we're not We're not the biggest Minnesota backers here. We have not really been on them or gone against them that much this season, but this does feel like a unique spot with this number at six to be back in them.
For every season, there is a time, Simon.
We have sertain teams we lock in on and I have a couple more games if you want to run through of just crazy stats for you. Always, always, like I said, I am, there's no one where a handicappy Tennessee Titans game, I believe on Tuesday said I was on the forty nine ers. Yeah right, Yeah, I have flipped. I have been bullied by professional betters. I am coming around on Tennessee. I'm gonna take a position on Tennessee. But again, I don't know if we'll make it our contest, but.
No fucking way, We're just not gonna do it.
Wait to hear these stats, chaff I.
Don't want to hear the stats, Simon, Simon. Do we need Matt Mitchell to go back and pull the clip that we played on Tuesday?
What did we say? What did we say?
I'm not putting in the contest. I'm just giving you the stats for Thursday show with our loyal fans, which I hope they listened to me. I said to Fade me.
This is on you, this is on you. I take no.
Responsibility Nola, No Nela, Kyle Shanahan and these forty nine ers. They are four and eight against the spread off a bye week, which is pretty extreme. They've lost three straight. They're one to five off the bye week since twenty twenty one. He faces a team below five hundred A Shanahan zero and three off a bye week against the spread. So I don't know why in my mind I thought Channon was great off of bye week. I think I said that on Tuesday when I went and looked it up.
It's atrocious off of bye week. And that's all I needed to flip me because I just I cannot get this Tennessee team right. And it's like, what am I missing here? Why are the pros betting this team again? And there's your answer. So let's move it on to the next game, because, like Chet said, we're not gonna betting this one. Pittsburgh Miami. Where were you at?
You were on Miami right or I I was on Miami plus three and a half on Tuesday's.
That to me does feel like the sharp side the three and a half. But if you're like me and you just don't want to throw out the spread, you want to go strict money line, which is what I want to do. Here some amazing stats about Steelers of the money line and this exact opportunity. Since ninety ninety two on Monday Night football games, the Steelers are twenty two and one straight up. Their only loss was in
twenty twenty against the Commanders. I don't know if you remember twenty twenty, there were no stands in the stands. That's throw it out. They are just unbelievable at home on Monday Night. If you throw that one out, they're twenty two and to ozh straight up on Monday Night football at home since ninety ninety two. In his career, Aaron Rodgers eleven and two straight up on Monday Night football. So there's just a lot of trends at point to a liking it. And let's get to all the two
of stats. Two outdoors in the cold, two and seven straight up, one and eight against the spread in his career when it's under forty degrees. He's zero and five straight up, one and four against the spread, losing those games by nineteen points per game. So, my god, we know two is horrible and the cold. I had no idea the stats were that bad. So with Chad sick, can be true? Right? This Miami team have been hiding to it for a couple of weeks. Can they just
lean into the run and get away with it? Possibly?
¶ MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS. DALLAS COWBOYS
But my god, do all those stats point to them just laying a total egg here in Miami, especially coming off a divisional win on the road now traveling to Pittsburgh, it seems like the perfect spot to fade this team. So I'm still gonna be dug in Steelers minus three. I'll still take it. But I could not believe those Monday Night's stats for this this Pittsburgh team historically, they just came to dominate. And my last game game again, we don't. I think you more had a renon than
I did. I just I couldn't really get behind Washington or the Giants. I just I remember when you brought the game up. Did you like Giants or dold you like Washington? I don't.
I liked Washington, but so at the time I thought it might be Jayden Daniels. Now we know it's not going to be Jayden Daniels, which.
Is to me is better. That's to me is why I'm kind I kind of like Washington now. And the line reflects that it's come down a little bit. It's come down for the two and a half to two. This is my favorite lazy man stat. We always talk about lazy man stats. I love a good like. Give me a good stat. I don't need to think about the game anymore. I'll just bet it off this stat blindly. What have we been doing so well that we missed last week? We've been betting teams that's be bet on
teams that get shut out. Yeah, and it's been tried or true for me and Chad for years. And the stats backup since twenty fifteen, teams that got shot in their previous game thirty four, seventeen to three against the spread. This season four to zero against the spread. So if you just want to lazy man blindly bet it, it's a good bet. It just shows these teams that get shut out or embarrassed, these are growing ass men. They bounce back like whatever it is. We've seen it time
and time again. These teams tend to bounce back the Commanders if you go through it. They've owned the Giants in this matchup. Like I always talk to the divisional matchups, the Commanders, who have just been awful throughout these last four or five years. Even the Giants were semi good with Daniel Jones, they'd always beat them in this matchup. So it is unique. I kind of like the Commander, especially a plus two and a half. I know it's two now at hard Rocks. There's a bunch of two
and a half's up there. I've come around the Commanders team. I think it's probably a good spot, especially the fact that Mariota is back, and just look at the splits everyone's left them for debt. People are now hammering and backing this Giants team. They believe in the Giants as a home favorite. So it feels have got a rare opportunity to jump on this Washington team.
Here.
Look that one is of the of the ones you added in. It's the one I hate the least.
Yeah, it was a gross end of the show, but I had to give out all these stats. I just I love them.
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¶ TENNESSEE TITANS VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
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¶ MIAMI DOLPHINS VS. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
and Virginia.
All right, what are you laughing at?
I have tons of people sending me all these videos from people in sports media about Jalen Hurts. Like, but people are like, should Hurts be benched? Matt Mitchell said he's willing to die for Josh Allen, a man everyone won an AFC Championship game. Eagles fans have a quarterback that's taken them two Super Bowls. There is should this guy be benched? Two worlds? We live in two worlds, Chad and the other world sucks. I can't imagine being in a world that you want to sit hurts and
you hate Josh Allen. Those people just suck.
That's why I so love Philly sports fans but also so love Buffalo sports fans. They are such distinct personalities, Like, it's just so much fun to engage with both groups all of the time.
It's totally amazing. The reason why.
We're that Matt Mitchell said he would die for Josh Allen is because Simon the other day sent in our group text chain video of Josh Allen being interviewed when he had just gotten to Wyoming and he was the second string backup quarterback and they're asking him about the snow and he's so wholesome and earnest, he's.
Like stuttering over his own words. He's so young and sweet, so.
Young and sweet and innocent, like a babe in the woods.
He's like, I've never seen snow like this. He's like, what do you like to do?
Well? I just want to go out to eat with my friends and you know, play football, anything football related. That's It's like this guy eventually married Hailey Steinfeld.
It became Superman.
It's became a superman. Totally awesome. Matt.
Matt Mitchell makes good choices in his heroes. All right, Simon,
¶ WASHINGTON COMMANDERS VS. NEW YORK GIANTS
one of your biggest bets, pull up those.
Pints and be a man. I mean to show man a little bit. Love the Rams, obviously you do.
I didn't. I didn't. That didn't come across.
Yeah, good, physician Chad read it pretty good. I do love the Chiefs. I'm getting a little weary because it's so much love. Like everyone I talked to is right there with us. I've slowed down a little bit, but I do really love the Chiefs. In that spot, we talk about the Bills. I really like the Bills, and it's not one of my bigger bets right now. I can see myself getting there, so we just city right now. My two biggest bets for sure, Green Bay the two two and a half and the Rams minus five and
a half. I haven't touched so much the Rams at six, but I wouldn't let it scare me off. I'll still bet it comes up Sunday underdog parlay. My dog blocks your dog, Your dog blocks mot dog.
I have New Orleans, I have Cincinnati, I have Washington, love it.
I have Minnesota. Okay, I love that too, Minnesota.
And for our last one, Cleveland.
I was looking for a decent sized number.
I get where you're coming from. Let me be the bigger scumbag here. Give me the Raiders plus four nine.
I knew you were going to say that I gotta do.
It again this. I think they're gonna win. They should blow out this Raiders team. But we've seen in football when when when this when teams collapse under their own weight. This is uh this, this tends to happen. So just at that number, I have to bet it. That's too big for you.
You really just want the conversation about Jalen Hurst to continue, not at all.
I just I want to make money off the suffering. That's the key here.
Uh favorite, By the way, the only of the big numbers you know, Seattle, Indie and Arizona and Houston and uh Vegas and Philly. I forgot the other big number that we were talking about before. Tennessee, Vegas and Philly is the only one that's moved in the direction of the underdog.
It was a twelve and a half. Now it's eleven and a half eleven.
The other ones have just gone up, except for Arizona, which is holding strong.
So we know the wise guys are on Vegas here.
Who's our favorites, Parlay, I feel like we got to go like we got we gotta go with the Rams, Yeah, green Bay, Green Bay, Kansas City, Buffalo.
Would you say Buffalo? Buffalo? You know obviously I'm people. I gave him that stat the Pittsburgh one.
I was just gonna say.
It's got to be a play, a sharp versus square, sharp versus square.
This week we tied.
I'll do because I tend to go dogs here. I'm just so much better at them. But I'll go. I gotta do it. I guess I got I'll go Rams minus six.
Okay, Rams minus six, Chad, Let's see Chad. Chad's choice was the Packers, Simon says was the Saints. Brass Balls was the Vikings.
I think I'm gonna go with the Bills.
I love it.
You think I just jinks, Matt Mitchell, Is that what you're saying.
A little bit? I beg. I'm already drink some I love the Bills so much here too, And it's just that's how history happens. Like I said, you just it's the ones you don't see coming that hurt the most. And that's what I'm worried about here. Brother.
Well, look, we're we're rioting a knife's edge all season with some of these teams, right, like trying to get off the wagon with the Chiefs, the Bills, the Ravens, Like trying to see where the transitions. This is betting. You're trying to see the future. It doesn't always work out. When we reconvene on Sunday, we're going to be talking about.
The Chiefs, the Bills.
Cleveland will have a conversation, the Rams, New Orleans will be in the conversation. Green Bay, Minnesota, Maybe Washington, That's what I think, Maybe Washington. Those are going to be the games from which we choose our final five.
If I had to make a prediction.
This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network will be back on Sunday morning, Sharper Square YouTube.
Don't forget.
You can ease drop on this very intimate conversation as we try to.
Plan for the misery and glory of the day.
We'll be back on sharper Square YouTube Sunday night, seven point thirty ish after America's Game of the Week, and we're gonna recap all that misery. Watch or listen on YouTube at sharper Square. Download some Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe, Wes five stars say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until next time.
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