¶ Intro / Opening
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rought bet We are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I am joined as always by my co host, my companion, Mike Compadre, my BFF professional better Simon Hunter l Simon.
Chad, how goes it?
Brother? We're gonna give more details about the contest in a minute. People have been signing up, which is great. I don't know if you know this, but you and I signed up and people will be able to compete against Dust in the contest, for which I will give more details on how to sign up in a minute. Our team name, Simon, Are you ready to hear what our team name is? Chad and Simon bff's Chad and Simon BFFs. That's how you're going to find us in
the contest. LF Simon, I think I forgot to say it, didn't.
I know you said it, but I like it. You just fired up.
I forgot. I didn't remember listen.
Walking around his house yelling E Simon.
I do well. I yell like in a accents all the time. And like over the holidays, we had like two hours where there wasn't simmering tension between various step moms and mother in laws. And that was when like me, my wife, are two boys, my dad, his wife, and my mother in law we gathered around the fireplace and which I had built the fire and it was glorious and we were playing different games and one of the games required you to say certain words or guess what
an accent is. And at one point, like there was an English accent and a Scottish accent and it was my moment to shine because I have been doing bad English and Scottish accents around my house, I think since the day my kids were born. And it was so exciting because they got it immediately. It was the only time I could really contribute to the game.
It's I always joke my biggest negative when I go to England is I can't stop doing people's accents back to him. And it's like kind of like were're doing. It's like I'm not even trying to be disrespectful. I have like a parrot syndrome, but here's something I just repeat it back. And the big one is my uncle has a dog named Nelly, and anytime Nelly does anything goes no Nelle, and I swear for about no nell two weeks all I say to anything, anyone asked me anything?
Oh no, Nella, no No.
I love it. I love it all right. It's a week fourteen episode. We're going to narrow down the options to get to our final five. It's going to be harder than we think. In our pregame and our pre show convo, it felt like we were split on some games. Subscribe watch on YouTube, a Sharper Square, Apple Pods, Spotify, listen Simon. We're going to get into the Steelers in the Ravens game. But the big news this week, like there is just crazy, crazy drama that we have not
¶ START
seen in the Steelers' locker room or with the Steelers generally since Mike Tomlin has been coached, Like they signed Adam Thielen, so clearly all their downfield passing issues are just gonna go away. I kid, but the bigger news. Ben Roethlisberger on his podcast set, I love Mike Tomlin, but and everyone knows anything you say before but is a lie. I love Mike Tomlin, but maybe he should go coach Penn State Come on, case Simon, I don't get this. A Mike Tomlin's not building that roster. He's
not the one who signed TJ. Watt to a massive forty million dollar guaranteed deal for next year. He's not the one who signed Jalen Ramsey and traded away makea Fitzpatrick. He's not the one who gave Cam Hayward a new deal after he sat out during training gap. He's not the one who signed Aaron Rodgers like. He's not the one who traded for DK Metcalf. I know he's involved in all these conversations, but there's a lot of blame to go around. This roster is not good enough, and
we're going to get into that. But dude, Mike Tomlin's been a brilliant coach for twenty years. I can name ten teams right now that would kill to have Mike Tomlin be their head coach. Am I wrong? Am I wrong?
That?
Like Mike Tomlin is not really the problem here?
No, and Big Ben is part of the problem of all these ex athletes having podcasts, And I get it, everyone WANs to share their opinions and stuff like that, but that just sounds like a bitter old man, Ben Roethlisberger, that's just I don't know why he's holding grudges against Tomlin, But to think a man like that, a caliber of coaching, who's taken a joke of a team these last couple of years to the playoffs every year, and you know, think that man might go to Penn State, like you
just said, if you're if you're the Raiders, like all these different organizations I've just for twenty years, you would die to bring in a Mike Tomlin type this get the organization right, So very very bizarre are Roethlisberger is saying. I think it's another thing of an athlete maybe having stuff we don't know about behind closed doors, that he's holding grudges against tom because rationally doesn't make any sense,
Like no sense, Yeah, it makes zero sense. So I think Tomlin laughed at it basically when they asked him about it, just being like I gotta hear I gotta talk about this stupid shit again, because it feels like every year they're asking if you'd ever go to college, and it's like, dude, the disrespect of that man to ask him that question is ridiculous.
Raiders, Titans, Giants, I mean, the list goes.
On Eagles fanily. I love Sirianna. I would I would take time, honestly, I mean, I do respect Serianni. But what are we doing here? Tomlin's a Hall of Famer.
All right, let's get into this thing. Every week we give it our peaks. Every week, Simon's fellow professional betters call to yell at him about those picks. It's time to summarize those opinions. It's time for chef calls. Who all right, rain range, telephone range. Somebody said, maybe wanted.
To do man, Yeah, I'll start where I got killed, which I knew was coming.
I was on.
I'm on a lot of chalk. I would say, shocking, and no one pros they really like Cincinnati. But like I said, I did believe they liked him at the six, and I haven't heard too much love for them at the five and a half, which is where that number is. But tons of calls about Cincinnati and how that's going to be the right side. Tons of love for Pittsburgh, tons of love for you know, not shockingly, this Atlanta team that is in a unique spot a game. I
didn't really you know, talk too much about him. You know a ton of love for Dallas, which we talked a little bit about. But the biggest one I got wrong, obviously, is this Minnesota game. I got a ton of calls about pros who love Minnesota.
They don't think Daniels is playing.
They love this matchup defensively for Minnesota against Mariota coming on the road, if it is gonna be him, And yeah, that's that's a game I just simply got wrong.
I'm still on Washington.
I still like them as a dog, especially the fact that it's up to two and a half in a lot of books right now. But I was shocked to hear so many pros are coming in on this Minnesota side and they just love JJ. I don't get it. I will never get it. They love the coming of the year. They kind of haven't budget on it, and you've seen it this week, the way that numbers move.
So those are the games that kind of gotten wrong. The ones they loved.
Our picks on love the Saints plus eight and a half, Love this Jets team that we've talked about, loved our love for this Cleveland team, you know, Chicago. I talked to a couple of really smart groups that are on it, I still think that's a Green Bay line. When it's under seven, I still think it's a Green Bay line. So I'll be a fun one to discuss. We want to get into it. Tons of love for Atlanta already talked a little bit about that one. Arizona. You know,
not a shaker with such a big number. I knew the Pros would be on that one. And that Chiefs game is kind of a flip flop. I've heard groups on both sides of it, so there's not really one side that they love, right if you can get the three and the Chiefs, I know some really smart groups have coming on and the same with a three and a half. They're tons of professional groups that took early positions on that Houston side.
And the last one pain pains for me to hear.
The Pros absolutely love this Chargers team against the Eagles. They love the matchup for them, and what we've talked about, there's all the dysfunction, all the noise around this Eagles team. I think they view it as another spot to keep riding, you know the fate of this Eagles team. But like I said, I think if it's two and a half, that's an Eagles line. So that's gonna be a fun where I'm I gotta. I have a couple of games
are going against the pros. For the most part, it's all the chalk, Like I'm just on chalk this weekend, like every week the pro Just love the dogs.
Simon, You'll always be my pro. Thanks buddy, you know why Chad and Simon b f f's which reminds me. The Free Sharp or Square Pro Football Pick Them Contest is officially live and ready for your picks at Sharp or Square dot the volume dot com. Go sign up. I already did. I got me and my buddy Simon
¶ SHARP CALLS
in there. We'll bring back producer Matt Mitchell to share all the details. But one small note, there's no tiebreaker just for this week. Tiebreaker questions we'll start next week. If you can't find it, We've ben get some questions about that. That is why no tiebreaker this week. It is a bony five degrees in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Middlewaukee, perfect contest. Whether here's producer Matt Mitchell with all the info. All right,
Matt Mitchell, people can go sign up. Can you please tell everybody how they can do that?
Yes?
Very excited that the contest is officially live. You can just go to Sharp or Square dotthvolume dot com to sign up for this totally free contest and you can make your Week fourteen picks right away. It'll be the same website and your same log in throughout the entire contest.
How long will this totally free contest run?
Okay, so it starts this week, which is Week fourteen, and it'll run this time through Super Bowl Sunday, So that's nine total contest weeks. But you've got to hurry up and sign up because registration for this free contest closes at one pm Eastern kickoff this Sunday, December seventh.
Matt tell everyone how the contest works.
It couldn't be easier. You just select five games against the spread each week along with one tiebreaker question and again tiebreakers start next week. No tiebreaker this week, and once we hit the middle of the playoffs and the slates get smaller, we may include some totals and a
player proper two just to beef it up. But for right now, it's just five games against the spread and during the regular season, deadline to submit your picks will be one pm Eastern on Sundays, and you can always see where you stand with everybody else using the leaderboard fund which is also at Sharporsquare dot the Volume dot Com.
The most important question, Matt, as we have been getting comments on this all year long. Will these lines that we are all playing together against each other in good fun, will these lines move?
Yes, The lines in this contest the Sharper Square Pro Football Pickup Contest are dynamic as they've been the last two seasons, so they'll move with the market throughout the week. But be advised, these are still contest lines, so they'll always end in half points to avoid ties. All pecks must win or lose. So yes, the contest lines will.
Move dynamic lines. How or what actually are people going to win? What is the grand prize?
Okay, so grand prize? The contest winner and a guest will be flown to warm Full South Florida, where they will enjoy a complimentary two nights day at the Beautiful Seminal Hard Rock Hotel and Casino, along with tickets to the Memphis Grizzlies versus Miami Heat game on February twenty first.
Very important, Can people change their picks during the week?
Yes, if you want to make any changes to your picks, you just need to cancel your entry and make all five picks again. At the bottom of your finished entry, there's a little button that says cancel and play again. You click that, it cancels your entry. You make your picks again at the current contest lines.
Easypsy.
Is there a tiebreaker?
Yes, so this contest is only nine weeks long, so the tiebreaker is going to be really important as it
¶ NFL PICK 'EM CONTEST INFO
has traditionally been. It will be total passing yards in a selected game, typically Monday Night Football. In the event of a tie at the end of this contest, the winner will be decided by the lowest tiebreaker differential. So when you submit your pecks, do not forget to put in your typebreaker.
Answer, Matt, will all of the games be included as available contest picks.
So we do not include Thursday Night Football in the contest. We never have, probably because those games are an abomination, But generally speaking, all other games will be available to choose who.
Can play in this contest, Matt.
Okay, you just need to be twenty one years or older as of today and located in the United States, So sorry Canadians and Brits and all our international listeners. The only US states that are excluded are Rhode Island and Washington State. Tell me why they have tricky rules about free to play games. So like, if you live in Newport or Seattle or whatever, call your congressman. I don't ask me. I have no idea, but I wish you the best of luck anyway.
All right, well listen. Thank you Matt for the FAQs, Thank you for other work getting the contest ready to roll. Thank you to our sponsors at hard Rock Bet for working through the entire challenging regulatory process with us so we could bring this to you. Guys, better late than never. Go sign up for the contest. It is open and
ready to roll right now. All the picks that we're talking about on Sunday will be based on these contest lines, so there'll be no questions about where you get in that line, where are you betting stale lines, Like every line we're betting is going to be the same lines that everybody else is seeing.
And the ninety five that listen on the podcast. If you know most of our fans listening to via podcast, we put it on socials too. If you're confused by anything, hop on there. Matt Mitchell is happy to help you as well if you just want to DM them or
AD them or anything like that. You know, we know it's very late in the season and it's a quick turnaround here, but I really appreciate all the people that signed up so early, and like we keep saying, it's the type of thing where the more of you that sign up, the cooler stuff.
We wile to be able to do in the future.
So we love the support we're getting from all the fans and come prove you're better than me and Chad.
Let's see it. People.
I love when you when you when you give appreciation to the fans, I think it's fantastic. Shows your true spirit. It shows that you really really are a good person deep down.
I used to hate them.
I'll be the first time I used to hate the fans. But then we did a bunch of live shows and you quickly realize you're only hearing ten percent of the assholes online. The ninety percent of these people are awesome, cool people that just want to you know, learn get better at.
Betting football and love football.
So I've grown to really appreciate our fan base and how cool so many of them.
Are I love that about you? All right? Listen, you can find our producer Matt Mitchell tylt go to at sharp or square underscore. The little underscore at the end of it is key at Sharper square underscore. Let's get into it, Simon, you mentioned Dallas. We let's talk about Dallas and Detroit for a second. Detroit is a three point favorite. We're not going to spend too much time on it. We can't put it in contest because Thursday
games aren't eligible. But it's a really interesting game. I don't think I'm gonna bet it like I think I'm just gonna sit it out. I think it's it's I think it's lined perfectly right, like it feels so public to bet the Cowboys. I'm not getting the hook. It's not going to two and a half. The Lions I think have real issues either reverse biases coming into play for me maybe, but I don't like the number totally fair.
I'm gonna touch the stove. I'm gonna bet the Lions. I can't help it. I just I just nailed it. I'm clearly stuck in the past, but I am just so scared off about how much public love this Cowboys team, and like you just said, the number has not budged off the three despite we've had a day and a half now of not just professional money, public money as well hammering this Cowboys side.
So I'll bet with the books, I'll take the Lions.
But yeah, very very low confidence in this bet. I just this Lion's team just seems totally lost.
Yeah, Washington plus one and a half at Minnesota at hard Wrack Bet. Washington plus one and a half was the Simon says Better the Week presented by hard Rock Bet. I think we made that when you thought Jaden Daniels might be playing. It's looking more and more like Marcus Mariota is going to be the quarterback. And this line has now moved to two. You said there's two and a half's out there. I think in this bet, I'm
with you. I don't see what the love is for the Vikings if JJ McCarthy is your quarterback, because he is just so ineffective. He has not been able to move the ball in any capacity. So are you just thinking that it's going to be a three nothing game? Like if you're betting on the Vikings, Like, what are you looking at here? To make you feel good about betting on this Vikings team. I know it sounds stupid. Marcus Mariota is now sort of has enough past attempts
to be eligible for all the rankings. He's a medium ore serviceable, mid level quarterback who has been in the pantheon of backup quarterbacks recently and certainly this year one of the better ones. And so I'm with you. I favor Washington here. Everyone is banking on the fact that Brian Flores is going to be able to confuse Marcus Mariota to a degree. He's going to turn this game over. That's got to be what it is, right, Yeah, Yeah.
And I've had just a lot of guys who are really heavy on this Minnesota tie just said, you need to kind of go back and really dive into how bad this team has been for the Commanders, right with everything that's going on behind the scenes, And that's fair. Like their last couple of games, even though it was a jugging out of a schedule, they went to Kansas City, they got blown out seven to twenty eight. Then they
¶ DALLAS COWBOYS VS. DETROIT LIONS
played a Seahawks team at home, got blown out thirty eight fourteen, then played Detroit at home, lost forty four to twenty two, so that's fair, right, And then they've kind of played well these last two weeks where you know Miami, I think that was in Madrid they.
Lost sixteen to thirteen.
They felt like they could have won to cover that game a million different ways, right, I remember the kicker out of miss kick.
It was just a total training wreck.
And then that Denver game another game where it felt like they could have covered.
And won it outright in a bunch of different ways. It lose by one.
They obviously got the cover, but that was the first time they had covered in about four or five weeks. So I get what they're saying, right that this this Washington team is just bad right defensively and you really dive into it as bad as JJ is. You would think wide receivers, but it'll take advantage of a really
bad secondary. Like Chad just said that, you're banking a lot on JJ McCarthy and make these completions, and you know, Justin Jefferson hasn't been blowing up in the media, but you can see him on the field, his bilinge, everything he's doing. He's just so over it, sick of this whole experience. So I really am just playing the number here. Like Chad just said, there's two and a half's out there, a couple of very public books. I'm gonna have to
¶ WASHINGTON COMMANDERS VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS
take the number. Even if it is Mariota. I still feel like this game should be closer to a pick than it is at minus two and a half for this Minnesota side.
So not shocking.
The pros love this Minnesota team so much. I'm just shocked the numbers move so much. Where we don't even know who the quarterback is going to be. Where Daniels is practicing is just limited, and that's why the number has moved in my opinion, because like Chad said, you know.
I talk a little bit on Tuesday.
People I've talked to behind the scenes in Washington. They don't want him to play right. They just wanted the kid to take a full time heal come back next year when it matters. But he's such a competitor. He's pushing the play because he wants to right. He's not a guy that, when he's healthy, wants to set out. So I'm really interesting how it plays out because it's right now, it's organization versus a quarterback, and we'll see what side the head coach picks. But I think this
head coach, Like we've talked about these different coaches. You see the way they coach at the end of these games where they want to be next year. It feels like dan Quinn he's happy to follow the organization's lead here and maybe said his quarterback, so be patient here, like I gave it, as Simon says, obviously I was wrong. The number could keep moving up. If it is the two and a half at your book, you can get
it right now. I would grab, but at one and a half, I'd be patient, see if you can get a better number.
Two Jade and Daniels said, I don't rehab to sit, so we know he wants to get on the field. So it's going to be an interesting sort of tug and pull there. If he doesn't play this week, you know, are they going to let him come back and play week fifteen, Week sixteen, week seventeen? Like as the season gets closer to the end, what's really the point if this team is completely out of the playoffs.
So they played the Eagles twice, so it's like, does he want to come back and play spoiler against a divisional po I could see it.
Maybe if he was a ten year vet. It's his second year.
Does he really have that much against the Eagles that he's like, No, I need to come back for these last two weeks to play.
I just don't see it. So I'm with you.
It's a really fun situation where the competitor in him wants to play, but the organization's smart.
They're trying to protect the long term. They're thinking they've.
Been through this with RG three Indianapolis at Jacksonville. Jacksonville it's a one and a half point underdog at home. I'm going to tell you this one lit up our comments in YouTube on Tuesday after the show, I went in and answered some questionquestions about it. People felt that I had a bias against the Jags, and I do have a bias against the Jacks.
We both do.
I don't think Trevor Lawrence is a very good quarterback, like that that's a bias because it's true because he hasn't performed at the level at which he has paid, at which he was drafted, at which the expectations are
for him. Like that's just a fact. So the reason this team has been playing well and his contention is because of Liam Cohne, who, by the way, maybe he should be Coach of the Year for dragging this team to eight and four in the middle of December, right, But the truth is I do have a bias against
Trevor Lawrence. And yet in the show on Tuesday, when I said I feel like I want to bet the Colts, I still listed all the reasons in which I'm afraid of betting the Colts, And by the end of the show, by the end of that segment, you had completely turned me around. And this line did get to plus two for a second, and now it's been back down to one and a half. This is like, clearly the line
of demarcation for the wise guys is too. I feel like you and I have probably come around are going to be betting the Jags because I'm I'm I'm worried about Daniel Jones. That's to me the issue.
Worry about Daniel Jones.
And like we talked about the secondary of this Colts team, there are some major questions about them when you can exploit them, like the Jags should be able to This feels like a great matchup for them, so really fun game to dive more into this past couple of days and just hearing the pulse of what the pros were gonna do with the one. I kind of knew they'd be on the Jaguars, but I was just interested because this number, like Chad said, there's a couple of twos
that have touched. So it's like, Okay, is there professional money coming in on the Colts or is there something I'm missing here? And you know, I've heard maybe one or two groups have come in to the Colts, but just the majority of guys I've talked to kind of the same in tality of us here. This is a Jags line, a Jag spot, and this Colts team. It feels like we've talked about a couple of these games.
We feel like we're holding biases from earlier in the year in this type of game where we know the Colts when they're going right, they are the better team right, there's no doubt about it. When everything's clicking offensively. I think we both agree we would have trust Daniel Jones much more than we trust Trevor Lawrence and many aspects, especially this season where you know Daniel Jones, if you go back and look, he was so great against the Blitz when he was fully healthy and mobile. Again, he
wasn't even ruin the ball that much. Just his pocket presence was incredible. Ever in the year, you've seen these last three four weeks. Whatever the injury is, maybe he's
¶ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
pushing off it's so painful. Whatever it is, it's in his own head. He's just been taking sacks usually when he's been reading the hot route and making the first read and having you know, good throws and tough pockets. He's not been that same way. And defensively, we've seen this Jaguars team. Yes, they do have weaknesses obviously and their linebackers in their secondary, but that D line, which
they've drafted so well these last couple of years. Strength, they have guys that can pressure quarterbacks here, so you know, matchup wise, I really like this Jaguars team, and we talked a little bit about it. This this number should be closer to a pick bro general public, Like my model has it a minus three for the Jaguars, which I still think is insane. I can't believe it loves
the Jaguars that much. So really unique spot here back in the Jaguars team that you know they're kind of left for dead by the public even though they've been winning and covering these.
Last couple of weeks.
So I think people are just like us, where it's hard enough to have your biases of Trevor Lawrence. He just does such egregious stuff every week. It's hard not to have the Linger in the back of your mind. But trust the models people here, trust the professionals, back back this Jaguars team. And yeah, I'm glad I wasn't all on once a gat on the Cults on Tuesday, because Sunday night me and Chat both said, yeah, we thought that was a good cold number, and yeah, I
quickly realized the error of my ways. And yeah, this Jaguars number, I could just see it dipping. Like you said, it's got up to two a couple of books. The more pros I talk to, this seems like more money's gonna come to the Jaguars side.
And this could easily flip come game time.
So definitely grab the Jags as you can right now.
Daniel Jones said the leg really isn't an issue unless he has to move laterally, which is like fifty percent of the moves right, Like you got to move right to left and forwards and backwards. So that is a little bit of a scary prospect to be betting on a guy who's struggling to move when he's going to get some pressure. And also the Colts, like their defensive line has some injuries and that's impactful against a running game. And you know, I think both coaches are really good.
I think there's no real advantage there. I think Liam Cohn is doing a remarkable job with subpar talent at the quarterback position.
Yeah.
He also had the most Duke conversation ever where he set his buddies who went to college with have invented this like fake prosthetic party puts on his pads that protects the injured area. And it made me think of I have an aunt that lives down in Durham, North Carolina, and I was probably probably twenty two. I just really
dove into becoming a professional better. I'm flying down there, go a visitor, and I'm sitting next to a kid, Sam ages me twenty two to twenty three, flying back to college where he goes to Duke and he does heart research. I go, that's pretty cool. Like, again, we're on totally different pathrore, Like I'm a professional better.
I goes, what do you guys do?
He goes, he pulled out just box and goes, well, I build an artificial heart and it got to prove to be put into process. This is like in whatever, say like twenty twelve, twenty eleven, and I always think back to this guy is building these fake hearts and artificial hearts at twenty two twenty three and I was over here like talking about being a professional better totally broughbab me back down and humbled me.
At that time I really needed it.
So I always think back at the different paths of life, and you know, you never know, like this kid, he's someone that built artificial hearts and extra professional better when we were both just young kids talking about TV shows and movies, all.
Right, that said, we're going to be on the Jacks because I don't think anyone's thinking about a way to fix Daniel jones broken fibula between now and then Miami. At the New York Jets. The line at hard Rock is two and a half. Everywhere else it's three. So I would recommend getting the three. I made this Chad's choice when it was the Jets two and a half On Tuesday, and that seemed to be the only twenty four hour window where this wasn't three because it was
at three Sunday in the Monday. It's been three since Wednesday morning. I betted at three. I bet it again at three. So the Dolphins are getting all the bets on this one. They're the public side for sure. You mentioned you shurep call. The Jets are the wise guy side. What I don't get is why hasn't it come back down to two and a half when I know the professional money is coming in on the Jets in this game.
Yeah, honestly, I think this has to deal with what we talked a little bit about, where it's this game had a lot of dictating on the weather, and you saw earlier in the week.
They're supposed to be a Hug Show storm coming through for this game.
Now, the Saand's gonna blow out and it's going to be sunny, So it basically would be thirty one thirty two degrees for kickoff and sunny is what they're predicting right now, Which if you're in Miami and Tua, that as good as it's going to get. Right if you're coming to the Northeast in December. You knew it's gonna be cold. But if you're not getting any type of horrible wind in met life, you're not getting rain or any bad elements like that. Who should be all right?
Right with the times we've seen him struggle. You know that was when he was in Buffalo or Kansas City and it was like windshill of three degrees outside and it was just my numbing. It might not be that bad for him in this spot, but we've seen times come. This Jets team, they keep being underrated.
By the public. Tyrod Taylor, We've talked about it.
You know, his last eight starts, he's seven to zero to one against the spread.
So it's super Bowl champion, pro bowler.
Nothing nothing new for him though. It's just being underrated by the public.
Just seems like that's gonna be what's gonna be for Tyrod Taylor, right, They will keep underrating him. So my only issue with Ay Chad is we both love this one so much.
This tends to be the games that exactly burn.
Us right now. I know, I agree, I totally.
We're nothing going to revisit Sunday for our contest.
I have like a feeling like I'm getting in a little bit my gut alarm bells here that we've already hit on black seventh straight times the Roulette wheel, and we're we're hitting on black once again. So I don't know what to do here where it's like, I think it's the right read, but we are taking a little bit of a risk here that the market might have caught up to Taylor at this point, because to me, this number feels right like my model has it right at this So my model has.
It too, you know. I think we're getting a good number on the Jets at two and a.
Half, especially at three. But I get why there's just not a ton of love from most professional talk to where they're playing their Jets. But it's not like they're like, no, you have to bet this. This is exactly why you want to back this Jets team. I feel like they have the same mentality as I do. It's like, man, we got away with one last week. We really got to go back to this well hammer this one. But we just we love both of us love this matchup.
It's just this Miami's defense is so bad, Taylor's gonna be able to move the ball against him. Can they get stops against TUA after you know, last week too had a terrible game historically, and you dive into his trends, he tends to bounce back after really bad games every time him and McDaid, it's just that combo. You know, any game he goes without throwing a touch on the following game, he averages two point three touchdowns per game.
So it's just again lazy stat, but just shows he tends to bounce back after struggling the game before.
So just to be something weary of.
But this is another game that if we wake up Sunday chat and it is twenty five degrees limit or rain kind of kind of windy out, I will have to put this one. If there's any type of winner elements in this game. But it's a perfect sunny day. Maybe I'll talk this out of and lie to myself being like, nah, don't, don't, don't go too hardier on this Jets team. But I love the plus three and you do as well, so it's me hard to avoid it.
Yeah, I agree with you. I feel like, and it's totally anecdotal, like when we tend to love a game, lock in a game early in the week, I feel like we don't even hesitate to put it into our final five, and it always ends up being a game that we're out of it in the first quarter.
Yeah, we've had the blinders on a couple of times like that.
It's true. Well, let's see if we have the blinders on for the Cleveland rounds at minus three and a half hosting the Tennessee Titans. Huge swings back and forth on this one in a small range like four and a half to four to three and a half to three and a half to four to four and a half,
back and forth, back and forth. Look, I dismissed all the noise about cam Ward's improvements a couple of weeks ago in the show, but if you do look at his numbers, passer rating, lack of interceptions, completion percentage, they are all much much better since Brian Callahan was fired in week six. And this has been outside of last week, a more competitive team.
Right.
They twice beat down the back door to cover a big number against the Chargers, to cover a big number against Seattle. But they haven't played Miles Garrett in Cleveland yet, And so when I'm looking at this game, I'm looking at not sure door Sanders as more than a field goal favorite. I'm looking at cam Ward having to compete against Miles Garrett.
Yeah, and just been talking to why different pros love this Tennessee team so much?
Right, They've come in very heavy on like this.
This number did open a lot of books at five and a half four and a half, and like Chad said, a lot of books quickly move at three and a half. So that's some serious money pushing it a whole point. And I couldn't understand why. So I wanted to figure out what people are seeing that I'm missing, And it is a little bit of the cam Wred love right
that you just talked about. But it's also they can't believe that Shador Seniors would be this big of a favorite, which I think is a totally fair criticism of him and that team. But like I talked on Tuesday, I don't think this is Shdor Sanders' line. I truly think this is a defensive line. This is a line that when the bookmaker's posted it's what I'm looking at my model, which is like, okay, say the offense is a total zero in your opinion, at least the Browns have a
¶ MIAMI DOLPHINS VS. NEW YORK JETS
good run game, Like we've seen it through multiple weeks here.
That they can run the ball pretty consistently.
It's just the usuer for us, which I think most guys have bet in this Browns team, is if it's thirty and seven, thirty and eight, you definitely have more confidence in Ward, I guess completing that than you do a Saantors, Right. But like I've talked about, I think it's just an overreacting road reaction to this past week
where you go and look at that Raiders game. He was moving pretty well in the pocket, finding open lanes and I think he only had eleven completions, but still they were big time completions, right, and that's what you're looking for for Sainders and a young quarterback were cam Ward.
We've talked about it.
He's so erratic that, yeah, the numbers have been better, but we talked about a lot of those numbers is a late game, you know, passing yards and touchdowns like those are fourth quarter stats. Yeah, most defense are playing prevent. Could we get burned by the Browns prevent defense? Sure,
but we've seen it this year. This Browns team doesn't usually go into that mode like they always plays if they're very desperate, so it just feels good to reaction, like the pros have really bet this one, and you look at the money splits.
You know, the tickets of most books.
Are pretty heavy on the Brown side, but the money is very, very much skew to this Tennessee side. So I really do like this Browns game. It's another game, just like the Jets when we're I know it's probably an overreaction of my part to it, but I just think the lines move too much.
Like I don't think the Jet should be plus three.
I don't think the Browns here it should be minus three and a half. It just feels like a too much overaction by a lot of these professionals. So maybe you'll help us talk because out have to come a Sunday chat. But as you say, right now, the Browns, they are quickly becoming all of my bigger bets. I've taken a pretty large position on the minus three and a half. I just I think it's a unique spot with this Browns defense. Jim Schwartz at home against a
rookie on the road in the elements. I gotta take the Browns here.
Yeah, I'm having a hard time walking away from it to.
Total thirty three and a half. I shouldn't mention that too. So that's another reason pros like the like the dog. Here's just a total that low with that few points, most pros will just blindly take the dog in that position.
Yeah, it's a really it's a really low number. I'm having a hard time walking away from the Browns. And it's entirely because we've had a lot of success betting the Browns as the better defense at home against much much better teams and better quarterbacks and than what we're getting in the Titans and so and with by the way, worse quarterbacks than Shoud or Sanders. Yeah right, So I mean.
Whether it's matter here, Like looking at it early again, it's it's three four days out, but it's supposed to be flurries of snow, really strong wind, and probably in the mid thirties. So this could be another game where the elements play a factor into.
It, all, right, Seattle at Atlanta. Atlanta's a seven point dog right now. We talked a little bit about it on Tuesday. You and I are split on this game. You're riding this I like the Falcons here and I know it sounds gross to say it, but they keep losing close games. Sam Darnold has not been as good as he was when he started the season the past few games. Kirk Cousin's serviceable. I'm not saying he's great to me. The one reason that I'm not like going all in on the Falcons yet is because I want
to know Rake London's status. He is so important to this team, but.
Like very unlikely hasn't practiced all week, so you know, and they're four and eight, like, are they really going to rush back there? They're number one player on their team.
And absent that absent that this is peak Seattle and the lowest of the low valleys for Atlanta. So I get why the wise guys are on it. I get why it's moved from seven and a half to seven. I'm surprised that you and I are split on this one.
Yeah, it's just again.
Atlanta is a type of team where I'm not saying all the teams they've played in the past are bad, but they have not played a team, in my opinion, on this Seattle level where you know.
They went to New England.
I don't know if you remember that game they lost by one point, it was twenty four to twenty three. That's a totally different team at this point, right, that's with Drake London, that's with Pennix, that quarterback. Like this is I don't think people are reacted enough to how
¶ TENNESSEE TITANS VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS
bad this Falcons team now is with the kirkut, the helmet, without Drake Lon and it's just you know, their last three games, you know, not going to take too much away from it, but it's been against Carolina and Orleans and the Jets. They won one game of that whole unit, right, that was when they went to Orange and they blew up the Saints team. But you even talked about how
that game was much closer than people realize. Right, that was a game where Saints could gather their own way and eventually Kirk took it away from them.
Right, they won twenty four to ten.
So it's just a faconts team that they beat up on bad They beat and played bad teams here with Kirk, this is a legit juggernaut like the Seahawks, the more numbers I dive into them, Like you said, if Sam Donald could figure it out, their path to the Super Bowl is literally there. Like they have the guys, they have the pieces. It's all going to come to Sam Donald. So for me, this is a get right game for Sam Donald. He should light up this defense. And I
think what you're talking about is true. The only thing we're wary of here is just such a huge number to be back in Sam Darnald on the road.
But talked if you just don't get too hard.
About yourself on Sam Darnold, this head coach with Geno Smith, has gone on the road in won games and covered games and going back to last year, so it kind of seems like we need to start thinking so much about what the quarterback is that start really realizing this is a head coach team like a lot of these other teams. We talked about like, you know, this head coach might be one of the best in football. And you know McDonald here his record on the road as
just a young coach. He's nine to four against the spread. So you know, this year we've seen it as two non covers have been you know, Sally both games I backed or no. He did cover against the Rams, but he didn't cover against Tennessee. But we talked that felt like a very flukey back door covered by the Tennessee team. So I'm gonna hold hold my line here back to the Seahawks team on the road. I just the numbers moved too much of minus seven. I gotta take the Seahawks.
If you if you're like Chad and.
You want to back to the Falcons, I hope you could have got to seven and a half. But it's seven. I just I can't advise you to bet. I think you're betting into a bad number.
Well, suffice to say it won't be in our contest. All right. We mentioned Mike Tomlin, We mentioned the Steelers. Pittsburgh is visiting the Baltimore Ravens minus five and a half point favorites against their division rivals. This is going to be our brass Balls Better the Week presented by hard Rock Bet.
You know what it takes, brass balls.
We've made the very hard decision to back the Baltimore Ravens at minus five and a half. We don't want to pile on to Mike Tomlin, who we love and we think he's an amazing coach. It's the rare time we are not backing the Rah Rah Mike Tomlin spot All betting is a risk. We recognize Lamar Jackson is not as healthy as he has been. This offense has not been as consistent as we would like it to be. To me, this is really a bet against Aaron Rodgers, the inability of this offense to move the ball down
the field, and a bet against even more. They're very quickly aging in front of our eyes defense, and a hope, a hope, a bet that the Ravens offense can take a smidgeon of advantage against a defense that, as the games go on, continues to get worse and worse in third downs and continues to get worse and worse in explosive plays. And that's when we can see Derrick Henry break open some game, some big gains and put these games away. It's what happened last year in the playoffs.
We've seen it happen a couple times with this team when they just completely collapse and the offense can't function. So Ravens minus five and a half.
Yeah, we love this Ravens team.
And this's a line that I almost positive will be in our contest because this is such a unique matchup where you know, it's it's not it's not that calm that the public is totally giving up on Lamar. But it feels like that's what we reached here with this line chat for this probably should be really does just look at that just matchup, and most people's models are gonna have this at seven. So all right, it's a point and a half off. All right, Great, we're getting
this Ravens at a point a half off. But it's also a unique spot where the Ravens have now not covered in three straight weeks. Right, So not only is the public gonna be off of them, I think they're
¶ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS. ATLANTA FALCONS
gonna be on Pittsburgh just because I'm not telling one of those those trends.
Everyone's gonna be giving out those trends all week.
Right. That is a known trend thing where if you just blindly back the dogs in this matchup, whether it be the Ravens or Pittsburgh, over the last twenty years, you've come out green, and especially with the numbers above three. I give out that stat Tomlin when he's underdog in this matchup above three, or even hardball either side when the numbers above three, the underdog team is twenty three
and five against the spread in that spot. So historically you've just blindly backed the big dog in the spot, and it's worked out for you. When you go back through all those years, even when the Ravens had down years, it really always was defensive. Like you look at all the scores of all those games, it was these insane ruling defensive battles.
Sixteen, fourteen, twenty seventeen. Like, it was games where the Steelers defense made big, big plays and caused huge turnovers that turned the game. That's what you were always banking on.
The last three times they played in the Pittsburgh won the game. So the last two the Ravens have won, they I think they've blown them out, But I just thought it was interested. The last three times that Pittsburgh won, they won eighteen to sixteen. Does that not sound like a defensive game? They won seventeen to ten. Does that not it'sund a defensive game. And then they won again seventeen to ten. So we talked to Lamar earliest career, he was zero to five against spread and straight up
against its Pittsburgh team. How was when Pittsburgh had this dominant defense. Now these last years, right, these last two years, the cracks have been forming. This year, it's just totally the damn has broken the flood. Gat are totally open. We talked about it, like I went back and look just to make sure I wasn't speaking out of turn on TJ.
Watt.
All the numbers back it up. He's been atrocious, getting no pressures at all. And you know, if we look at this matchup just on paper, we get Lamar is banged up. That is something we're got to deal with here. This should be a Derek Henry bounce back. Everything they've
talked about. The coaches in turn said they made a huge mistake now running him more against Cincinnati, right, they went too much into Lamar, put too much on Lamar's play and he just did not live up to it against since he last week, where.
I think this week the lean into it.
And you know, once again you talk about this matchup defensively, this Ravens team, I kind of love it. Where they've had KYLEA. Hamilton moving all over the field. This is really type of game he's really going to take over. You gets to Rodgers that if you already know you can't throw the ball twenty plus yards down.
The field, you're just going to stack the box. You're going to try to make him.
Force the ball downfield, because that's where you've seen him turn the ball over. So I love this match, this Ravens team, and shocked to see the public is coming in on this Pittsburgh team. The tickets, the money, it's all coming on Pittsburgh. Yeah, even five and a half, it's a good number.
I'm floored by the way Aaron Rodgers twenty yards downfield? How about six yards downfield? Don't forget the stat I gave the other day from Ben Solac in his column in ESPN dot com. Sixty six percent of his passing yards are coming with yards after the catch, Like this is historically bad and so it's gonna be a haul for him to get the ball downfield. Everyone's seeing it.
Everyone's seeing the same thing, all right, Baltimore Ravens brass Ball's better the Week presented by hard Rock Bett Cincinnati at Buffalo. Buffalo is a five and a half point favorite. You love the Bills here. The number move five and a half to six, down to six, down from six to five and a half. The public is all over the Bengals in this game. You mentioned in sharp calls the wise guys like the Bengals in this game.
¶ PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS. BALTIMORE RAVENS
I have six. I just want people to realize that they took him heavy.
At the six, right at the six. It's like, I can't rep my head around this game yet. I don't want to invest in the Bills. I don't have any faith in their defense, and I don't want to invest in the Bengals. I don't have any faith in their defense. I think it's like it's a perfect straight against weakness, strength against weakness game. I don't see an edge for anybody. It could go either direction.
No, it's totally fair. And now I give up those stats Joe Burrow. I mean, you take away the Hamlin game that got basically canceled out.
But he's two and zero straight up and against the spread against this Bills team.
So you know, clearly early in his career he's matched up well against his Bills team played well against him. And you know, I get why there is love for this Bangles team. Where Jack gave the stats right the secondary of this Bills team, they're bad against downfield passes. That's exactly the offense Cincinnati wan's to run. They want to push the ball downfield. But I just when I really break this one down, it just feels like This gonna be a ball control type of game, especially in
the elements. Like we've already talked about the lake effects that could be happening in Cleveland, could be the same here in Buffalo, right, could be a really weird weather game, which that favors this Bill's team. They don't have offensive line that wants to be in Preasprotec. They have an offensive line once they run the ball. We saw that last week with Pittsburgh that you know they want to just be the heavy, big guys pushing these guys downfield.
And we've seen it with Cincinnati. They don't really have a pass rush, let on a de tackle that can.
Stop the run.
So it feels like the Bills being able to pick their poison here offensive had to beat them, and you know, as much grievance we're going to give this Bills defense how bad they've.
Been, there are some ways that can attack you.
Now. I did see Bosa pop up the injury report not practicing this week, which I know you'd be like, Oh, it's not that big of a deal. He's actually been really good for them this year. Yeah, so that's been a great sign up by them. You definitely need him back in this type of matchup where you need to keep Burrow off his spot, and you know, people when to glaze over at Burrow is not playing healthy. He
is playing hurt. He's talked about it. He's basically got a special insert on his foot that every time he's pushed off that toe, he's feeling it.
He says it's it's pain shooting up his leg.
But he says he becomes n I'm doing when he's playing the game because he's got other things going on in his mind.
So you know you're.
Putt You're taking a wounded Joe Burrow as a as a dog on the road in a spot that Chad just said that the public is all over it. So maybe I won't force it into World War five coming Sunday. But I do really love this Bills team in this number. But I'm just a little hesitant because the STATA gave out Joe Burrow is a dog three points are greater eighteen to three against the spread.
He just he's a covering machine.
So I just I'm trying to have to put all in here on the Bills team where I.
Kind of like chat I'm a little weary of that.
Just something I don't trust about this Bills team, but just just feels like this is the exact time you want it back this Spills team in this spot because I just tend to roll bad defenses.
Let's just see what the weather is on Sunday.
It's fair.
Let's talk about the Chicago Bears visiting the Green Bay Packers because this game was at six and a half and I bring it back up because it was moving in the Packers direction. The public is backing the Packers right now, a slight money edge towards the Packers, but an indication that it's pretty split fifty to fifty between the Bears and the Packers. When it comes to the professional betting community, like it's another one. I'm being a little bit wishy washy here. I don't even know if
I'll bet it. I just want to watch the Bears. I'm not I'm not kidding, Simon. I'm pretty sure I had a dream about the Bears last night.
You gotta bet the Bears money lining, brother.
Yeah, I'll bet the Bear's money line.
Yeah you got if you're a Bear's fain. It feels like this the ultimate slave slay the demon. This is uh, like I talked this is the team that's been in your guys way for so many years, and you know, this is the best Bear season since the Mitch Trubisky double doink. So it's like, I don't know, if I was a Barris fan, I would be all in on it.
You're getting a good number.
But we've talked about this is just like sin and I this is a huge, shockingly public dog because the money might be a little even the tickets, it's.
All over the Bears, the Bears.
So that's that's very alarming where it's like, oh my god, this is a ton of money coming on or just a ton of public coming in on this Bears side.
But I want to be on Green Bay.
But I honestly see why this money is coming to this Bears team, Like it feels like it is warranted because we've seen this Packers team.
It's not like they're that great against inconsistent, very inconsistent.
As well, but like as big favorites too this year, you know, it's not like they were recovering machine. We've seen them struggle as a big favorite show. I believe they started the year zero to six as a six and six and a half or seven point favorite to start the season, So you know, there is some things to take away from this where you know, this Bears team,
they've basically been on this divisional run here. So as bad as they looked right like they've had some letdown games, they did dominate that Minnesota team, which, okay, we won't take much away from that JJ McCarthy that you know, I don't know if they dominated Detroit, but they did play, like we talked about, playing with big balls. Lafleur going for on those fourth downs that was insane. That was like next level, like he was just playing simply to win.
He did not care about trying to play for field goals in that game. So I think it's gonna be same here, Chad. You're gonna see Laflour and kill mode against you guys, and he's had the Bear's number.
So I love this game so much.
Like Chad said, he's gonna probably take the Bears money line or either set this one out on the other side where it's like I'm gonna be Oliver Green Bay.
¶ CINCINNATI BENGALS VS. BUFFALO BILLS
But just not very confident.
I thought i'd be more confident come Thursday and be like, oh yeah, all the pros are with me on this packer's side.
This is to the right side.
I see, I see what people are seeing with the spars, and I see what the public is scene.
Where as good as the.
Screen Bays team is divisional game, you have to throw a lot of that out and you know, or as great as he's been down the stretch here, I don't know, Like this is the type of matchup that I could see Ben Johnson really challenging him, which he's not had. You know, he's not been challenged by Bears coaches in the past. Right we look back on this the Bears coach reason they did they not had a guy like we can we can say like Ben Johnson here.
So I love it.
This is the exact type of scenario where it's like, is this the turning of a page or is this the same old Bears Chad? So, I love it for all the hooplah off the field stuff we'll be able to talk about after the fact, but look, we'll do it.
Chad.
I'm on Green Bay, but I get while you're taking a position on the Bear's money line.
Uh, the schedule was littered with these kind of turn the page moments and and where are the lions, the lions of old or the new? Are the chiefs? The chiefs of old or the chiefs of new? Are the Bears? The Bears of old or the bears of new? We're constantly having asked these questions. That's what makes betting so interesting, is like you have to take a stand and you have to put your money on the line with an opinion about where you think something is going to go,
not where it's been. That's what makes it so fascinating. All I know is I woke up to p in the middle of the night, and I'm fairly certain when I woke up, I was dreaming about the Bears, and I think it was the Bears' screen game. I swear to God that's what I was dreaming about.
Bears fans a bet they're over under. They've already hit their win total for the season eight and a.
Half, one game that we have made a choice on together. We are on the same side, the Los Angeles Rams minus seven and a half versus the Arizona Cardinals. We know we're going against the wise guys here. We're basically back in. We're going against the big home dog that has lost seven games by four points. Or less because they've also lost multiple games in the division by three touchdowns, and the Rams are coming off their first game of the year where they were on the road as ten
and a half point favorites and lost outright. I'm okay back in the Rams here, I'm okay back in Sean McVay here. I like this defense to get pressure against Jacobe Brissett. I'm perfectly fine with our position. Are you still perfectly fine with our position?
I am.
It feels you a nice spot to back this Rams team after embarrassing loss on the road where everything felt like it was going against them, and this Arizona team, you know, we we we kind of fell in love with Jakobe. Were set and it's turn on fault because of that Dallas game where they were just so impressive, they played so well. But we've seen it since then. When they do play they're juggernaut of a division. They
get actually absolutely smoked. And you know, Seattle, I believe they'd be forty four twenty two.
Then they played the forty nine ers who beat them.
I believe forty one to twenty two, and I gave
¶ CHICAGO BEARS VS. GREEN BAY PACKERS
you that crazy status the first time a team had given up forty points and back to back week's divisional foes in like thirty years. So we know historically this is a horrible, horrible Cardinals defense, and every game they've come back, and it's been because either team lets him in, they don't really shut him out, or you know, Jacoby Brissett just has these incredible moments and like that Bucks game, the Bucks should have been up double digits, right that guy went.
Touchdown, That guy went touchdown.
Yeah, let them linger. And we've talked about Versett.
If you let him linger, he's gonna come back in that back door and get that cover.
So that would be the only fear for me here.
But this feels like the absolute type of game where you know, we see the Rams after a bad loss with McVeigh put up forty forty two points like these other divisional teams did against this really bad Cardinals defense.
And I gave you those stats.
He's absolutely owned Arizona McVay as the head coach, he just has their number and matchup scheme wise, he does really well against them. So not gonna let the big number scarras off Chad minus seven and a half, I'm gonna take down this Rams team.
All right, so we're building a roster here for Sunday. Last game I want to talk about is Houston and Kansas City. Kansas City is still at minus three, minus one twenty at hard Rock Bat mostly three and a half's elsewhere. As I just said, the chief gone the way of the Lions. Is it time to get off them this year? Is there still magic in the number three? Can they break the trend of losing all these close games? Will there be regression back to the mean in a
positive way for the Kansas City Chiefs. This game has massive, massive playoff implications for both teams. It is the tipping point folk froum moment for these teams in the season. The Texans defense is awesome, but I'm always going to be loath to bet against Patrick Mahomes at home as a short favorite in a must have scenario. That is one that that is a bridge too far. I can't
walk away. I can't be the one who's betting against someone who might go down as the greatest quarterback ever and is still in his prime.
Yeah, if you don't join the public and the professionals there on the Texas like Chat talked about it, it's really about the number right, the chief Team isn't good enough to be favorite minus three and a half, which is what I think a lot of pros and the public are taking that position on which I totally get.
We're talking minus three here at hard Rock, which hopefully in our contest, God bless hard Rock, they'll give us two and a half because that will be an automatic play in my opinion on this chief team, because that, to me, will be too much a reaction. And this is me signing the guy who's been fading this Chiefs team NonStop since that Bills game.
I think you know it.
Took a position against them with Denver they are a minus four favorite, they lost outright. Took up a position against them against the Colts, think they are minus four and a half.
They closed favorite, they won by three.
Took a position against them with the Dallas Cowboys minus half plus three and a half on Dallas.
They lost outright to Dallas.
So we've seen these last three games, it all comes down to the last position. Like Chad said, it's eventually got go the other way, right this Chiefs mathematically, they can't keep losing these one score games, right, And we've seen Mahomes tend to succel that this year, it just
not has been that way right. When they get these close games, it's either he's not had the ball in his hands and the other team's just eating the clock up, or he goes in there and it's just not been Mahomes like right, he's made the mistakes and not brought his team back from death. So I love how desperate this Chiefs team's gonna be. But on the flip side, I get people's position. Texans are just as desperate. They know they're playing for their division, their own playoff lives.
So I get why people are taking their position on this Texans team. But I've wanted to be on the Chiefs team all week. I wanted to be patient and let the number get to a position where I fle carble bet in it. It's hit that spot, I'm gonna take the minus three and pray the Pros keep coming on Texas and I get a two and a half, but got no issue taking the minster. I just feel like this is finally a Chiefs line. This is the deck spot you want to back Mahomes and this Chiefs team.
So glad to hear you say that. I so believe in the Chiefs in this spot, I could be blinded by it.
We are, We're definitely we're This is a past performance.
Bet, I'm happy to have met that where it's like I just I'm willing to see Mahomes die here. But this is the exact type of game we talked Mahomes. They're gonna have to stab them the hard thirty times to cut his head off before he's dead. He's just not gonna go quietly into the night. This man is gonna fight to the last second. And now you're giving me a minus three on that at home, I gotta take I have to take that number.
We could talk about the Eagles at the Chargers for a second, just because you mentioned it in sharp calls. I don't think it's a game we're gonna put in the contest. We're not gonna I can't imagine we're getting a two and a half. But if you have strong opinion I'm agnostic.
¶ LA RAMS VS. ARIZONA CARDINALS
With the pros, then like the pros, they're all they're all in this Chargers team, and they're just even the publics with the Chargers, and it's just everyone's the same boat. I think it's just so negative, so bad for this Eagles team. Where if I told you you can get this Eagles team, who's pretty healthy minus two and a half against a one handed Herbert that's out his left and right tackle, you'd be running to the window with me.
So that's my I can't believe it. Like when I was talking to pros, I'm like, shit, what am I missing? Like you guys love this Charger team, I can't believe it. Like I cannot believe this is not the exact time you hammer this ego side in this number. It just the hate has gone too far. I just cannot get over. It's like, all right, Herbert against bad teams, we don't mind backing them. Him against the Raiders. Yeah, that's exactly.
When you back Herbert him against a great playoff defense and team, you fade him.
You do not back Herbert here in this spot.
So I might be blind to it, have my biases here, but I got this number amount of mis three and a half for this Eagles team.
So you know you're getting a full point of value.
And the fact that publican and professionals are all coming to the Chargers, it feels like this is a nice spot to be with the up sportsbook here back in this Eagles team at Mice two and so maybe I'm missing something here, but I can't believe it.
It's to me the hate's gone too far.
Like Herbert, You're you're a tough son of a bitch here, but you're not going against, you know, a bad defensive line. This is a defensive line that can get after a quarterback and put major pressure on them. So this just feels like a nice matchup of the SEAGU team.
And yeah, this is a.
Very unique spot for me where I thought I would be all on the Segos team. But I'm very hesitantly betting it because I'm just worried there's something I'm missing here with the SEAGUS team. It just feels way too easy to getting Eagles Mice two and a half aguns. Like I said, a one handed Herbert without his left and right tackle.
Like it's just what am I missing here? I'm missing something clearly.
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All right, Simon, let's talk about the biggest bets.
Pull up close pants and be a man.
Yeah, shocking a week.
I'm a little not a little gunshot, but I kind of am. Honestly.
I usually had a lot more bet this week in this position. But again, we didn't really talk about much. I think in a pretty large position on the Saints like that matchup. Maybe we'll talk a little bit more Sunday for dogs, that's probably my one of my bigger spots right now is them in Washington and the Jaguars, And for favorites. You know, I can't quit it, Cleveland, Baltimore. I just I really love both those favorites and the Chiefs and minus three. I really love that one. So
nothing huge yet. Maybe comes Sunday I'll have some really big bets. But right now and not just dipping my toes and my whole foots in the water. I put some good money into it, but I'm not I haven't dived in yet. I'm just a little hesitan. I want to see what the weather report is, what the injured report has come today?
All right? Underdog money line, Parley, my dog blocks.
Your dog, Your dog blocks mot dog.
Who do we want to do this week? I would say Jaguars, Yeah, Jets.
Jets, and then let's do uh. For the third one, let's do Washington.
All right? And then I think for the favorites, we want to do the Rams. I made a list the other day. We want to do.
We'll take take them out of five and a half. Though, okay, I'll do the money line. Do the five and a half, Seattle, Seattle, I do the same thing, take it a five and a half. I wouldn't do money line, and for money lines, I would do Chiefs.
I think we both agree on that one, right, Yeap.
Baltimore O would.
Say, how do we not get Ravens in there. We love that one.
Yeah, Buffalo for the last one.
Yeah, I'll do Buffalo. Yeah, I feels I mean, I'm with you. I don't want to do Green Bay.
Let's do Buffalo, Kansas City, Buffalo, Denver.
If you don't love Buffalo, because that is risky, right, we take We're going against a good quarterback, all right. I gave you the stats Denver bone Knicks as a favorite fifteen and oh straight up. So if you want to get bone Nicks in there, you can easily get that down to two and a half, one and a half.
You don't have to take the money line.
Kansas City, Denver, Baltimore, Seattle and the Rams take them down to minus five and a half. That is our favorites money line parlay. Simon, it's time for Sharp versus Square. We missed it last week with the condensed show schedule. Give me your should we do? I don't want to do Atlanta Versy. I don't know who's gonna be playing in that game yet, go ahead.
I mean, if for my square side, I was thinking the Chiefs minus three. But I'll stick to my m O in this in this part where I always go sharp. So give me give me the Saints plus eight and a half.
Interesting, very interesting, Okay, I would say, oh boy, Uh, Chat's choice was the Jets brass Balls. I think was the Ravens. Simon says was the Commanders. We haven't done rock in a hard place yet. Uh, all right, give me the Jacks.
Wow. It was full circle. Yeah, my god.
I know, well, honestly down to them in the Browns, and I feel like the Browns on Sunday, we want to use them as rock and a harp place. That's what I'm thinking. Okay, I think I think it's gonna be a I think it's just gonna be a hard conversation on Sunday about the Browns. All right, this has been Sharper Square. We're part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back on Sunday on Sharper Square YouTube.
We're going to eat drop on an intimate conversation that Simon and I have well, panic will make utterly human decisions regret the rest of the day. We'll be back on Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night, seven point thirty ish. Watch or listen at YouTube Sharper Square. Like this video, subscribe to the channel also download us from Apple Pods, Spotify, wherever you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe, leupus five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until next time.
I love you. This isn't going You're not at all. This is ANDNFL, which stands for not prolonged.
When you make them golls, I'll be selling groceries.