¶ Intro / Opening
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet. We are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the show that makes the square. Sharper makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chadmoman. I am joined by my bff, my companion, my compadre, my co host, Professional Better, Simon Hunter Ellos.
Simon Chad. How we doing, brother, my brother?
As you know, on Tuesday, I was recording the show from my hotel in the city of Brotherly Love. Today I'm recording from a different hotel on the outskirts, the very very far outskirts of Pittsburgh, PA. On Tuesday, I had a beautiful view of City Hall, that magnificent building right in the center of Philadelphia in center City. Today I have a view of the waffle House across a five lane highway. That is the journey that I am on during this book. This is our Thursday, Week twelve episode.
We're going to narrow down the options on our quest to find our five favorite picks. We're inching our way closer. Reminder, subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pots, Spotify, wherever you get your pods. Listen before we get going. We love Mike Tomlin on this show. We just think he's amazing and has done so much and provided so much
entertainment over the years. He did it again this week when he was asked about how he would talk to Jalen Ramsey and his response of going after Jamar Chase after Jamar Chase spit in Jalen Ramsey's face, Mike Tomlin had a classic Mike Tomlin answer. Let's roll it.
Matt Mitchell, I'd have no message of someone spits in your face. Google comes natural.
Hey, everybody, producer, Matt Mitchell here, I'm sorry to jump in. I just wanted to call out this episode might sound a little bit off from an audio standpoint. Chad is traveling, apparently in some flophouse outside of Pittsburgh, and there were guys blowing the lead thieves in Simon Hunter's yard for over seventy five minutes, So shout out for those guys. Definitely getting paid by the hour in the interest of cleaning up that episode, so it didn't sound like you
were enjoying it. From inside a seven forty seven engine, it'll sound a little bit strange, but at least you can hear everything just fine, and everything looks okay, so again I want to apologize. We'll get ched back into his house and had this ready to go on Sunday. So thank you for joining us and for bearing with us.
All right, let's get into this thing. Every week, we give out our picks. Every week, Simon's fellow program Gambler's call to yell at him about those picks. He's going to summarize those opinions for us. Right now, it's time for sharp calls.
I have to answer this phone, all right, Rain, Rain, telephone ring.
Somebody say it maybe what to do?
Man?
Yeah, for a game. I totally disagree on it. I'm on the bills.
¶ START
I love Houston tonight, So I know we're not really going to talk much about that one. Haven't flipped me, but I just I'm just not gonna put as much money in the buffalo. I just know a lot of really smart groups that I've had Houston at plus six, they just really like this number in the spot for them. I just I can't get there. I can't trust Davis Mills my money again. So I don't know where you're at with that one, but I just.
I'm definitely going to be on Houston at plus six I just I love this defense so much. I can't quit this defense. And I feel like I'm looking at a Bills team that just had a miracle game, and we're going to talk about the Bucks in a little bit. A miracle game against the Bucks. So they went from one down to winning by twelve and Josh Allen, you know, played Superman on a short week. I like the Texans in this spot. I think the number's gotten too big,
all right, So that's Houston and Buffalo. You're on Buffalo, I'm on Houston. The wise guys are with me.
What else?
We got another game they're against me the Giants. Shockingly. A lot of love for the Giants, but I think they're just missing a unique spot here, and they really are playing Russian Roulette con James two weeks in a row. So I just that's a game we can talk about some more.
But we're going to get on Detroit. Good.
I am too.
Games that, you know, I think it's split both sides. I know tons of pros on the Chiefs. I'm on the Colts. I know tons of pros that really really like Minnesota. I'm on Green Bay. Another game, pretty split on Atlanta, New Orleans pros are really split on that one this week, and you know, we've talked a little bit about it the primetime games. La Bucks very split between the pros, and so is Carolina in Tampa.
What I feel like a lot of people agree on is the love for Dallas. That's a game.
I'm sure we're gonna dive more into all the pros. I feel like we're all over Dallas. I think the public shocking is joining them as well.
Since the game we talked a little bit about.
None of us knew Joe Burrow is gonna play, so that numbers moved, but the pros love that. For what I talked about, that was a huge spot to back since as long as we need that, we either Joe Burrow or Joe Flack, so that numbers really moved off professional money and you know, last but not least, Pittsburgh, we knew the program though we talked a little bit about it. You knew the three was going to last, so not too shocking. Tons of pros love for that one.
So there are a lot of split games where there are just some sides where I feel like all the professionals all lined up.
But take a lot of these dogs all right, Look, a lot of these games are games that we had talked about on Tuesday. We kind of had a feeling that they would play out and be in sharp calls and b games that we want to review today. One of the games you didn't mention, which we both liked a lot Seattle, which is now a thirteen and a half point favorite at Tennessee. We talked about it on Tuesday. We better on Tuesday. We bettered at twelve and a
half on Tuesday. It's obviously moved up. To me, we can say that the perceived value is lost in this game. What is value when it's a twelve and a half point favorite and you like the favorite and that favorite is on the road. That's the reality is we're betting a huge favorite on the road against a team that has backdoor to the past two weeks. And I think
¶ SHARP CALLS
my philosophy on this and why I like the Seahawks, and we both liked it from the second we saw the numbers on Sunday night, our Sunday night postgame show is the Chargers have fatal flaws. They got back door. The Texans have fatal flaws, especially offensively. They couldn't close out no matter how many opportunities they had, they couldn't close out that win and the cover on Sunday against
the Titans. The Seahawks don't have those fatal flaws. And we're going to talk more about the Seahawks and the Rams and the Rams and the Bucks and sort of how to play these games later in the show. The Seahawks had their disastrous game and still almost won. They're just a dominant team. I can't see this defense giving up more than seven points. So I'm still gonna like the number at twelve and a half.
Yeah, really good team, really well coached, and you know, there are some pros on the Titans. I just don't think it's like the other games where they're putting big, big money down on certain positions. Titans, they're better because they feel like they have to write. Like you said, they've been good to them. They've been back doing especially since the coaching changed. They've they've really covered a lot of spreads, which you know, we should have tooken advantage.
He was that terrible of coach. I didn't realize he was that bad that he affected the number that much. But yeah, hard Rock here in Jersey's back to thirteen.
So hard rock.
They've taken obviously some professional money here. Hit it back down to thirteen. But like you said, I'm in on Seahawks at thirteen. I'm in on the twelve and a half. I just like the number, like the spot, and even in minus thirteen eight, if I had to take it under fourteen, I still would.
But you talk all the time.
We just don't take big spreads like this because you need a lot of things that go your way, right.
You need to play really well and not to have.
Bad bounces that just happens in football. So shocking that this is probably the number one and number two.
Biggest bet of the week by the public, right by spread money line teasers. Everyone's just lined up with sholks. Everyone agrees with us.
It's just like, this is a really well coached team does really well.
In the ruin the cover a lot.
So if you're scared off on this, I mean you're scared of the number, just put it on an our money line around Robin with the favorites, get it down to six and a half or five and a half if you need to the Seahawks. But I'm not too scared off of this number. I bet at this big number, uh.
New York Giants at the Detroit Lions. You just mentioned this in sharp calls. This line has moved from ten and a half to ten. This was Simon says on Tuesday when it was at ten and a half. It's now gone the other direction. The Wise guys are like in the Giants. I don't get it, to be honest, this feels like the exact smash spot that you want to get in on the Lions. The Lions at home this year have been destroying bad competition, and you laid
¶ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS. TENNESSEE TITANS
it out on Tuesday all the reasons why you want to back Dan Campbell and Jared Goff off of a loss, off of a bad loss, off of a bad loss on the road when they are getting back home. I loved betting Jamis on Sunday when we got back on the roller coaster. I don't like betting Jamis his second game where he's going into a much more challenging environment. So I'm with you. Even though the Wise guys be in sharp calls they said they're betting on the Giants.
You and I are aligned, my friend, we are on the Detroit Lions.
Yeah and everyone. So if there's a little murmur in the background. Am getting my leaves done? I know there might be a little bit of noise.
But you're so bougie.
It is late fall here in the Northeast. Yeah, I just I get it. It's fun betting Jamis and the Giants. You expect them to able to pass the ball downfield against this banged up secondary that you know, the lines have been pretty suspect this season, but like you just said, we've seen time and time again the lines beat up on bad teams, especially teams if there's a coaching advantage, And this feels like a great matchment, just offensively.
So I'm not gonna go through all the trends again.
I people want to hear all the trends that read out check out Tuesday show, but it's not only is a great match up on paper and through the numbers, but there's tons of data and trends that show this spot is unique to this Lion's team with Golf and Campbell, and they usually win and cover.
The one I will bring up again is when they're.
Above a four favorite and after a loss at home eight to no against the spread in this exact spot, So play the number here we'll take the lines. And like I said, it's a rare spot. I usually don't give out double digit favorites. Is my favorite bet of the week, But I thought I was gonna keep going up. Like you just said, Chat, it's down to ten out of hard rock, So I'm gonna take that value and bet the number again.
Yeah, I'm a little surprised, to be honest, that people would be investing in the Giants in their second game with a with a interim replacement head coach and truly defense that they cannot stop the run. And they just had you know, Abdua Carter have to sit out a series because he missed a practice because he just didn't attend. It sounded like he missed the practice because he was injured,
missed the practice because he overslept. So this is not a team that is defensively in its best place right now. And they're going against the Lions team. You know, they are going to try to run the ball as much as they possibly can. That is their advantage. And the Ryans are the kind of team that when they run the ball, they find ways to score in bunches. They have enough talent that they can get down the field quickly, as quickly as anyone else can with the passing game.
So I'm with you. I like the Lions here. I'm not afraid of it. Pittsburgh and Chicago. This one has moved in the Steelers direction, which we expected. We talked about it on Tuesday. It was at three. It's now at two and a half. Aaron Rodgers, we don't know
¶ NEW YORK GIANTS VS. DETROIT LIONS
if he's going to play. It's not a surgething. It's just about can he be safe with his particular injury on Sunday against the Bears. We will have to see about that, but it hasn't really mattered. The Bears are not the team that the wise guys want to back this week.
I guess we're on the same boat. It's about the number.
If I'm going to make a bet on this game, I wanted to be on the three.
I'm not gonna let two and a half scare me off. If that's what it is. Come Sunday and Rodgers is cleared. Great.
If it moves a ton because Rodgers is out and it goes up to three and a half, four, all right, great. I just I can't lose here, so to me, just be patient. Let the number move if it needs to, but you've seen it this week. A ton of games aremoved. So yeah, it's weird, it isn't it isn't it? It seems like the books kind of put up numbers and they're letting the pros dictate it rather than staying just you know, holding a line on a certain number. So I would say the most shocking part is just so
many games the dogs have moved down. That's been because we've talked about this year been really good for the favorite. So yeah, there is another game where Rogers game out news he might play, he might toughen it out, and the number did dips, So a couple three still out there, But all the main books I'm seeing is two and a half. So yeah, I just look at the matchup wise. I kind of like this matchup for the Bears in a lot of ways, but it's we go back to it.
It's how long can they keep getting away with this? They're just not that good of a team that has a ton of wins. But if this drops some more and it is Rogers back, I'm gonna end up on the Bear's chat. But at two and a half, I'll still be on Pittsburgh. Once the tips flow too, it's like this becomes a Bears line. This is a pretty eavily matched team and Bears do have somewhat of home field advantage.
So I just if it moves too much off the Rogers News, I'll take a position on the Bears if I need to.
Well, look, you said it the other day that the Bears have had a horseshoe up their ass all season. And my buddy Andy, who've talked about on the show, just texted me that line because he loved it so much, because it kind of captures everything that every Bears fan is thinking about this team right now. There's sort of this foreboding sense of dread about the Bears and how good they are.
That way I would go, it's got to be the opposite way. It's like, man, this is this is the dream. You're winning, You're stealing a winning game you shouldn't because you have a good coach.
I mean, that's which.
Is great, But we also have to ask ourselves. We keep winning games against bad teams in the final seconds. So are we a good team that is learning how to win? Are we a mediocre team that is just getting the right bounces at the right times against other
bad to mediocre teams. Those are the questions that as Bears fans, obviously we're enjoying it, we love it, but we can't help but be ready to be snake bitten by a team that still has seven games left and could just as easily, by the way, be three and seven or four and six right now as they are seven and three. So this next seven games, there's still a wide variance in how good this team can actually perform.
I agree, New.
England at Cincinnati. Cincinnati is now a six and a half point dog. Crazy crazy swings in this game on six and a half at hard Rock bats, seven other places.
¶ PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS. CHICAGO BEARS
This game, it was seven and a half on Tuesday. We thought it was going to be Joe Flacco. We knew there would be no Jamar Chase at some point. I know in my notes, I saw this game go to eight and a half, and now it's down to six and a half. We're talking about Joe Burrow. We're still getting seventy percent of the bets coming in on New England. But obviously news about who's going to be playing quarterback for the Bengals is changing a lot of the market in this game.
Yeah, and it's kind of crazy that I was not expecting Joe Brow. I don't know about you.
I had heard he might be back Thanksgiving, yeah, or after Thanksgiving, like Thanksgiven? Was me pushing it because it's a Thursday game out see against that Ravens.
But incredible.
We talk all the time just how far health, medicine, all of it has come for these athletes, and like the fact that he is backed potentially starting this week is pretty incredible.
So Joe Flacco is a point better than Joe Burrow. That was the most shocking part to me. It only moved the point.
It only moved the most books of seven and a half to six and a half. So yeah, I don't know, or I guess a couple of books did touch eight and a half. But yeah, I was just shocked it only moved that much. Still, like Cincy, if it is Joe Joe Burrow, you know a little worrisome because he is coming in cold. I guess you could say, right, he hasn't had the reps.
He's coming in in a weird spot, and you know it's not ideal. But I still think you're getting a great number.
I just can't get over the fact that this Patriots team, Like I gave out that stat, it's just never a good stat.
Or good spot.
I should say to be in an h eight game win streak on the road as a big favorite, and the number has moved from maybe I'm overreading if there is value on the Patriots now, but I still think this is the Bengal's number. Like to me, Joe Burrow if he was healthy mid season playing, even if the record is what it is, this line would not be
above three and a half four. So are we getting an extra two and a half points becuz it's Joe Burrow coming a little cold and the books don't really know how to price it and there's no chase, like you know, it's just.
I see why the public is still going to be on this Patriots team.
So I went from liking the Bengals team to like kind of loving this spot now, where it's like, this is the exact situation you want to be and it's just it depending on the number. I people don't feel comfortable now that it's moved off to seven. I get it, but every book is six and a half. You're just that's what it is. So once again. Like I said on Tuesday, I wasn't rushed making people rush to bed it because I didn't knowho the quarterback was going to be.
I had no idea it was gonna be Joe Burrow.
So I hope people grabbed it. I said, I bet it on Tuesday at the seven. At this point, I'm gonna bet it again just in case it keeps dropping with In fact, if it's Joe Brow gets clear, does move the four four and a half.
So I like this number. But again it's hard for me to tell.
People to bet it because if he's out and is Joe Flacco right up to seven and a half, eight, this would go.
So it's a unique spot betting this number right.
So we should be clear. Joe Burrow practice on Wednesday, full participant. We are recording this on Thursday midday. The Bengals have not had a practice yet, or at least not have indicated if Joe Burrow is going to be a full participant participant on Thursday. Zach Taylor has not said Joe Burrow was starting on Sunday, but the hope is that he can play on Sunday. They wanted to see how he did the rest of this week in practice.
So the line is based on speculation of the move and anticipation of the move, not on actual news that has broken about Joe Burrow starting. That's why the Lion has moved thus far.
Again, everything I've read is he is it's Joe Brow's team. He is pushing beyond you, like even if he's ninety percent, he's basically like made it known he's going to play.
So that's why I do think the line reflects that.
New England at I'm sorry, India, Kansas City, India is now a three point underdog. You want to make this Simon says, when the game was at three, it did get up to three and a half, and I've seen three and a half's out there, and it went back to three and a half in Kansas City's direction, even though the majority of the bets are coming in on Indianapolis. So Indianapolis is a bit of a public play here
you were on Indy. It's so interesting, like the talk of the NFL Geekaraate this season has been that the Chiefs at what is it five and five now actually have better underlying metrics this year than they did last year when they went into the last game of the season with Scrubs at fifteen and one. But last year they were winning those one score games, and this year they're losing those one scores games. So did we buy into and improving better performing Chiefs team that is just
getting unlucky? Are we buying into the Colts team that has can you continue to be very good in these close games and could be having the same kind of season that the Chiefs had last year.
Yeah, I'm just gonna keep saying.
I said, I just feel like the Cults are the safer, more logical bet here on this number because of what you just talked about. Last year, I think they might have been ten to one the Chiefs in one score games. It was insane, and we kept saying there will be regression, but because Mahomes, it's hard to know how much regression there's going to be.
No one saw oh and five coming this season.
That is again just like the ten and one was way too far one way, the five is too far the other ways. So you should start winning and stealing these one score games. Like we just said, hard Rocks are sharp book, they're at three. Every other book I'm looking at right now is three and a half. So we don't care if Mahomes went to one score game. We're gonna be in that number most of the time with a three and a half with a Colts that it's fair to say they're just the better team. They're
playing like a better team right now. And I mean with game we just moves all the Bears. You're doing exactly what the Chiefs team can't do. They're closing out games and stealing them at the end. Whatever it is. The Chiefs just have not been able to do it this year, and either in situationally just Mahomes.
Like you feel what I feel.
Anytime you see him get the ball back with time on that clock, you expect them to drive the field and score, and this year it's just not happened that way.
He just either goes threes an hour, they punt, or you.
Know, they don't get the whistles at a lot of
¶ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS
their games. It feels like they've been carried by the whistle and the reugh right like they've had drives. They're deader than dead. The reps give them a little bit of life and then then Mahomes kicks it up at a gear and they drive the field and get touchdown, So you know that's another part of it. I just think they've been in consistent. So you know, I read some trends. There's somethings that really favorite this Colts team here, especially at that three and a half number.
You know, it's a unique spot, right, it's a Chiefs team.
I think I have an amazing stat about this chief team. Basically a team that's below or at five hundred favored against a team like the Colts who's you know, above a seventy percent win percentage. This unique spot for the Chiefs. Historically, this team in the spot is twelve to zero against the spread. So I know there are guys who'd like the Chiefs here. They're saying the books are telling you something. They're taking a stand with the books, the fact that
they are stupig favorite. And you know, Joe Public's gonna look at this like I am looking at which like, I just don't get this. The Culture are a much better team. They've played better this season. Just throw out the records, just on the field stuff. You think the Culture are a better team. So I knew the Public doll would be the Colts. It's nice to see it has moved because that shows that professional money is coming on this Colts team.
Like I told you, I.
Know plenty of professionals are staying with the books and they're taking the Chiefs here. So like I've said, I just think it's they're betting in line from the Chiefs of yesteryear, not the Chiefs this year, which is a team that just has not been great in one score games. I still can't believe else that Broncos game, Like, I really can't like it lined up so many ways you thought they were gonna win and steal it and they just can never get over that hump.
So yeah, the I get it.
Like the Chiefs, you want to bet their money line because you just can't see them losing. That's safer to me than take of them at the three or the minus three and a half. So I just think we're playing the number strictly three and a half. That's where I got to be with this Colts team.
Chiefs on the money line is going to be part of our money line parlay for sure. Cleveland at the Las Vegas Raiders. Look, I nearly made this Chad's choice on Sunday on Tuesday when it was Raiders at minus three. It's now moved to three and a half. Should Door Sanders is officially the starting quarterback for the Cleveland Browns.
You can give should or Sanders the benefit of the doubt, if you want to be incredibly generous, right you can say okay, you can say, okay, he's getting a full week of practice, he's with the starters, all those opportunity unities. But here's I think the problem with Shore Sanders, and that isn't going to change because it was the same thing in college. We saw the same thing in training camp.
We saw the same thing last week. The dude holds the ball forever in the pocket, and he's not a big scrambler, and they've got a lot of injuries on the offensive line, and on the other side is Max Crosby. So I think there are just incredible advantages for this Raiders team. Forget about the fact you're getting the Browns on the road versus at home. I've gone through all the numbers. They give up ten more points per game
on the road that they do at home. They give up i think more rushing yards on the road than they do at home. So it's not a great spot for a Browns defense that just had a rock fight of a game and didn't come out on top against the Ravens Miles Garrett four sacks last week. But like I know, we're afraid to bet on Gino, but we're betting.
Nothing in betting is perfect, right, you got to play all of it, and I think that when you went, when you stack up all the positives and all the negatives, it's still a better game spot for the Raiders than it is for the Browns.
Yeah, and I'm just scared off by the number. It's just.
I'm betting in but it feels unnatural because it does feel way too easy and as bad as you know is, I just I still can't leave this open at two
¶ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
and a half.
And like you said, we bet at two and a half better at the three.
But I said them to the show, you have to talk about it minus three and a half because that's that's where it's going to be out for everybody. Yeah, sure enough, that's I mean a little by the time we post the show, that's where it was at. So I don't know, I Vegas, Like you said, it's the right side, We'll be on it, but I just see a million different ways that we get burned by Gino. But like you said, how does seniors move the ball push it downfield? So like my way here would just
be what we see with Cleveland, right. They have a really good run game that can mitigate bad quarterback play. But if we can somehow get a lead and forced Shador to have to pass, I think that's where they could steal this game. So I'm backing with you, which is of all my bets this week, I'm more so like I've said, I'm heavy on the money line for this Raiders team. I just I'm very aware of this
number at mines three and a half. It's just I'm glad to see it's gone up to four, which shows a professional money and the public are still betting three and a half. But yeah, if we get to Sunday and it's just still stuck here and mines three and a half, I don't know if I can let us put it in one over five.
Well, I'm super excited about this game. I love it, Love love the Raiders here. The other game that I love Jacksonville at Arizona. This was Chad's choice. I was really and I gave it out. Chad's choices two and a half, but I said on the show, be patient, it's going to get to three. It just hadn't gotten there yet. It is now a three, thank god. So hopefully people who are paying attention they saw the line move at to three middle of the day yesterday. I'm
really glad that it did. Marvin Harrison Junior is missing the game with Jacoby Brissett, who just threw for forty seven completions and Mike Wilson had one hundred and eighty five yards. I don't think Jacoby Brissett cares that much if Marvin Harrison is not playing Marvin Harrison Junior in the same way that Kyler Murray would need to have someone like Marvin Harrison Junior playing. But the truth is,
I'm just fading the Jags here, and I'm betting. That's much more what I'm doing than betting on the cards. I know you love it when I geek out on the numbers, so I'm sure you're familiar with Pythagorean wins, which essentially like the number of wins a team is supposed to have based on all of their underlying advanced metrics that shows the true performance. It kind of takes a lot of the luck out of the game. It just shows you, all right, if everything was equal, this
is how this team would be. This is what this team's record would be. And of course when I look at this, the Jags should have about one fewer win and the Cardinals should have one more win. So instead of being a team that is like, what are the cards three and seven, they should probably be closer to four and six or five and five, And the Jags, instead of being six and four, should probably be closer to five and five. That's not how this game is lined. This game is lined is that the Jags are a
much much better team. I don't see it that way. Give me the Cards plus three.
Yeah, And I think it did move a little bit because of the injuries that this Cardinals team has had this week, where like you just said, their number one receiver is not going to miss.
This game, and you know, it's once again a rotation at their running back.
They might begain trade Benson back, which doesn't sound like a big deal, but I like him.
I think he's an upgrade to the running back position for them.
So you know, this Cardinals team, our biggest rate in the day is can their defense get some stop, because that's what I talked about, that.
Their defense has been getting worse every single week.
Every week. Yeah, it's just been brutal. So that's like my only real fear here.
But offensively, I love this match of Arizona. I just think the Jags defense as great as they looked against that Chargers team. I think that was all, you know, just basically based on Herbert not adjusting to his offensive line love injuries.
He just holds on. In my opinion, Herbert holds all the ball too long.
So I think Brissette in this matchup Bill take advantage of this bad secondary of this Jacks team because be about to remember, you know, even if Brian Toomps juniors would come back in this game, he's not one hundred rights. He's been banged up and he's been fight through Injews all season. He's just not been that good. Mitch Trevor Lawrence relationship this year has just not been good. And I joked last year he had agree relationship with Mac Jones.
I mean, he really shined with it. So it's not it's not great with them. And we already know Travis Hunters out for this one, so everything. If I get Jacks took advantage of in that Chargers game, doesn't feel like they'll be able to in this game. And we've seen time and time again this Jags team on the road as favorites, they've struggled this season. So you know,
¶ CLEVELAND BROWNS VS. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
like you said, yeah, we're playing the number here, there's probably closer to a pick. We're taking the Cardinals at a good number at plus three. But in this match of it really is about fading Trevor Lawrence against this Cardinals defense.
It feels like it's a better matchup for them.
They've had the last two weeks against really good, high powered offenses.
You and I one hundred percent aligned on the Arizona Cardinals. It always works out when we love a game this much, Inevitably we get burned. So I can't wait to see how he gets screwed on Sunday. And I know it's going to be the game that we're waiting for it to end before we go on the air, And I'm going to take that long, dark, cold walk up to my third floor and I'm just gonna have to answer for this, and I'm already miserable about it, but I don't care. I don't care. I'm ready.
I love the.
Arizona Cardinals this week, all right, it's a little tricky Atlanta at New Orleans. The New Orleans Saints or one and a half point favorites right now. Simon took us a minute, but our brass ball got to do a quasim in a hotel. Brass Balls Bet of the Week presented by Hard Rock Bet. It's gonna be the New Orleans Saints minus one and a half.
You know what it takes. It takes brass balls.
Here's how I finally came to it. No Drake London, he's kind of their entire offense. No Michael Pennix, who heartbreaking that he's got a torn acl and needs to have that repaired. Kirk Cousins like this game is ugly. It's not because we all of a sudden are going back to our Oh the Saints are competitive. It's not because we think Tyler Shock is all of a sudden the good quarterback. It's not of any of those things.
To me.
It's only a bet against Kirk Cousins, a bet against the fact they don't have Drake London, and I think it's going to be really hard for them to move the ball.
Yeah, and hopefully people can get this before it moves to too A hard rock in Jersey here just moves to to while we're doing this live, honestly, and a lot of them, so two real public books out there are still at the one and a half, which I hope people can get.
But talk a little bit about it, like this is a split game.
I know some pros who every time it touches too they're going to take Atlanta, And on the flip side of the Saints, every time it's at this number minus one and a half, every probably know he's gonna take the Saints. So it's been really fun where it's a lot of back and forth and it's really about what
you just said. Atlanta, they're not that bad of a team, Like if you go through all out of their games, I mean, they could have beat the Patriots, they could have beat the Colts right like those are would have had huge, massive wins that could have really flipped their season. But they've struggled in those close one score games. And I do put that on the coaching. So I don't think Kirk is an upgrade the penix and he said the number one weapon on that team is going to be out as well.
Drake London, So I can't believe.
We talked a little bit on Tuesday about and I gave out all this Kirk stats, how horrible he's been once you really dive into it though, and the injuries this this team has had, Atlanta, how do you not love the Saints heres? So I'm glad to see it's moving it to at least it shows me that real money is coming in heavily finally on the Saints team,
¶ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS. ARIZONA CARDINALS
which to me makes sense. So I hope, I hope people can get the one and a half here when they hear it, because we talked all the time about key number two is this is also a game where I might throw a little bit on the adjusted line.
Like again, Kirk Cousins might be done, done, done, and this could be a really good match for them where they just know all if you do is take away the run and just put it all on the Kirk's arm and see if you can beat you that way, which again we've talked to Saints our veteran defense, they have the guys that probably can do that in the middle take away their run. So yeah, it's it's a game that we tried to find a game we both
agreed on it. I feel like it's the one we really agreed on together that we both love.
Yep, totally. Uh, Philadelphia Dallas. Dallas is now a three point dog. It was four and a half early in the week. You were hammering it at foreign and a half. By Tuesday it was down to three. There are places where it moved back up to three and a half, and I wondered how you felt about that, because when we talked about it on Tuesday, you were anxious that it was going to keep moving and then all of a sudden you'd have to be betting on the Eagles
at under three. It's gone back up. I think there's a lot of sentiment out there that whatever is plaguing the Eagles offense is going to be a challenge for them. And even if they think the Eagles are going to win, and we'll probably end up having the Eagles in our moneyline parlay, it's going to be hard for them to cover a big number against this Dallas offense.
I think we might have to skip it. No Monylam parlay chat. It's really Yeah. The Cowboys approached the end zone like a team.
Attending a buffet supper sampling a wide range of delights before finishing the media.
I told you for the show, a group I really respect, it's really respected in the industry, has put north of seven figures into this Cowboys team at the three and a half and at the four at the four and a half. So, like you just said, there's tons of three and a half's out there if you want to join a really smart group. And you know, I thought I was gonna be on Dallas. It was like, Okay, I'll bet Dallas this week. It's a good number, divisional
matchup home dog. We talked, you know, game one of the year, the biggest strength of the Dallas team was going to be the number two receiver and pickings against a bad corner on the Eagles. Little do we know, pickens are gonna be like what the number one receiver this year, a number two stat wise behind the guy up in Seattle. So you know, I can't get over this matchup as an Eagles fan. I just don't get
what they're Seenior. I can't believe as an Eagles fan they're saying We're gonna lose this game to the Cowboys.
I can't believe it. I really can't.
So I have zero dollars invest in this Egles money line. I've taken a position on the Cowboys money line here, and just I guess I'll trust the number. And these really smart professionals here, they're telling me this is an incredible spot for this Cowboys team. And you know, again, Kevin petulu O see of this Eagles team. I still a report that he's getting looks at being a head coach candidate next year, and it makes me want to rip my head out. It's like, what am I missing here?
I just everything feels so dysfunctional, these Egos offense. This is where I feel like this Cowboys team can maybe taking advantage of the fact that their offense is clicking. On the flip side, this Eagles offense just seems so congested. And you know, we've seen the upgrades THATX Cowboys made to their defense between trading and getting guys back healthy.
You know, obviously this is not the Raiders offense, but it feels like they can stop a the functional Eagles team right now, which I think the Eagles need.
They need it. They it feels like they need.
To lose a game to correct some of their woes right now, because as likely it's been to keep winning, and as much hate as I want to give this guy Kevin, his offense doesn't turn the bull over and they keep winning.
So yeah, it's it's a weird spot where I just it.
Feels like the public and the professionals are aligning on this Cowboys team because of all the outside noise, and it's like, is this not moved too much?
So, like I said, if it gets a two and a half.
On the Eagles, I'm not going to take it now because I respect this group so much, but I feel like this is such an overreaction.
This numbers move so much.
So once again, get to three and a half the three, I don't want to tell people to take the Cowboys here, but at three and a half, I do think that's a really strong number where really swarm money's back.
In that number.
I'm surprised to hear you say that that is new news since the Tuesday show, so obviously you've gotten some intel on this, this syndicate that's betting pig money on
¶ ATLANTA FALCONS VS. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
the Cowboys. I think if the Eagles off, it truly pains me.
I can't believe they're going to lose this game to the Cowboys. But that's what guys are telling me. They're like, dude, this is a trap, a bad spot for this Eagles team. They're walking right into it.
Well, look, if the Eagles offensive Cornator is all of a sudden, there's news about him getting looks as head.
Coach, I thinktrolling me.
I swear that's just his agent who's really good planting, planting, planting with some friendlies.
That's right, that's true.
That's all. That's all that is. There's no one who's really serious about that Tampa Bay at the Los Angeles Rams, this one is moving towards seven. It's at six and a half. I just can't not like the Bucks here. And I know we're on opposite sides because I think Baker started scrambling. I think Sean Tucker has taken on some of the responsibilities that came with Bucky Irving. So it's taken the pressure and the load off of Rashad White.
If you look at Seattle, I said this earlier in the show, they still almost won that game against the Rams, even after four Sam Darnold interceptions. What does that tell you about either the Rams' ability to be effective offensively, What does it tell you about the play calling, what does it tell you about their defense? And maybe there are some holes that you can take advantage of, Like
the Bucks also nearly covered against the Bills. They were five minutes away from winning that game until Josh Allen went into superhuman mode. So I know we've been burned with the Bucks. I'm still having better. I'm waiting for it to get to seven. I think it's going to get there, and when it does, I'm gonna have to bet the Bucks.
I know, I get what you're coming from. By just I don't know. I don't think this Bucks team is good the public.
Like I went back and rewatched that game, and you're you're honestly making a bet strictly on Baker having magic and keeping this game close. But these injuries have caught up to them offensively, like him not having all of his guys.
It's a real issue. As great as a Mecca.
Buka has been, you've seen teams be able to adjust to him because it's again a first year player. There's only so many good things he's gonna be able to do. He's very raw, right, So say he's incredible running these They've literally just been dropping a linebacker every time under coverage into his routes. So now he's had to really go downfield more, which again Bakers in mind pushing the ball downfield, but they're just gonna have a safety or
top of them the whole time. Like you just know you have to double with Mecha, Buca, everyone else you're gonna be able to do one on ones with. Right, You're getting guys off the street here for this Bucks team,
¶ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS. DALLAS COWBOYS
which you know Baker can make magic. Like you said, there is a world where he can make this the game and cover this number, because we've seen that with Baker, like he just never gives.
Up that Bills game. Like we said that three and out, that's why you lost that cover at the end of the game. If Baker doesn't go three and out there and does what he had been doing, Drave if at least gets you a field goal there, it's a totally different situation. You probably do cover that number.
But three and out Josh Allen was on a mission, gets the ball back, went right down the field scored again. So looking here, Chad, I think the professionals view it as why this number is going up to seven. It's just that I don't think they're gonna get Bucky back. To me, that's a big deal. This Rams team, as bad as they looked last week. This this has to be an exactly exactly get right spot for this Rams offense against a bad Bucks defense. Right, Seattle's defense kind
of not put Stafford in his place. But we were saying, I think he still is an MVP favorite, but he did not play at MVP level there. We talked about he had fifty completions. He totally burned us in a game his team gets four picks. We should have covered that number of a million different ways. He couldn't get his team in field goal range. I mean, like you said, they scored that fourteen in the first quarter with five minutes to go. He only scored seven the rest of
the game. So for a Stafford, this offensive feels get get right spot. And yeah, we're just on opposite side. You like the Bucks, But I don't think he'll take the Bucks here a minus six and a half, I think you'll just or plus six and a half, you'll just wait grab the seven where on the Rams. If you're getting this now, I would take the six and a half now, because I only think this goes up. I just don't see it coming down, just because I
think Bucky will be out. We'll have God went out, and we'll see who they get back to the offensive line for this Bucks team.
But just so many injuries to this team. Baker go only handles so much.
You know, yeah, Caroline plus seven at San Francisco. Why aren't we betting Carolina here? You know, Bryce Young against this defense. I know that everybody wants to say that the Niners are back with Brock Purty. Seven just feels like a huge, huge, huge, huge number us for a Panthers team that continues to find ways to not just cover and win. They're doing the same things they did last year. They're building momentum in the second half. They're
taking big chances. I know you hated the chances they took on Sunday and Dave canalyis was your shame? Shame, shame, But it just feels like this Panthers team is too competitive and this number is too big, and everyone is forgetting that this Niners defense is just not very good. They're wide open and vulnerable to what Bryce Young likes to do and how Dave Canalis likes to call plays.
I know, but like I keep saying, there has to be something we are missing here because this line does not make sense at all. No sense in the books are telling us that Bryce Shung is going to lay in the here, that's what they're saying to us. But we have all this data that shows this Niners team just they have letdown games after big wins, and they've done so the last year and a half with whether it's been Brock pretty Er, mac Jones, it doesn't matter
who the quarterback has been. That that's been consistent. They are one in fourteen against the spread after or win. You know, I just don't get this line at all. Like you've said, this Carolina team, they have the guys that keep up with this offense. You know, we know their defense is going to struggle in the forty nine is going to get this, but we expect the Panthers to keep up.
And this is seven and a half of two different books here in Jersey Jet.
It's ridiculous.
It's minus one twenty five and minus one twenty at both of them. But I mean, I'm very tempted to put a large wager on this Panthers team.
I can't believe it.
I'm just trying to be cautious here because there's just something I'm missing. My model's totally off and I'm totally off. I just do not get the number at all. So, yeah, this every every book I've talked to has said the majority of the money they've taken so far he has been Panthers, which to me makes sense, Like the public is with us.
They've seen Bryce Young what he's done.
And you know, Atlanta, like we just said they're potentially a really bad team and we've overvalued them. And you know, any defense that just gave up four hundred fifty yards or Bryce Young, we can say is a bad defense. But I don't know, like we said this for and Ers team with their injuries, they're not that much better,
¶ TAMPA BAY BUCS VS. LA RAMS
Like they really aren't.
So I don't get it. Chat, I just do not get this line at all. And I'm with you. I am all over this Panthers one.
But I'm trying to be cautious because it feels way too easy and I'm missing something Like again, it.
Feels a couple a couple of lines this week feel really.
Interesting where they've they've moved and this is one of those games where this was six and a half, it's gone to seven, and now it's trending towards seven and a half, so be careful. We'll talk more about it Sunday, where once I get more from because it is the money night game.
But yeah, as we say here right now, I really really like the Panthers number.
I do too. The games that we know we'll be talking about on Sunday either because of Liones, because games we like now because of injury news. We're going to talk about the Lions. We're going to talk about the Steelers because we're waiting to find out about Aaron Rodgers. We're going to talk about Seattle. We'll probably talk about Cincy. Yeah, because of Joe Burrow. We're going to talk about the Raiders. We're going to talk about the Cardinals, the Saints, Geez Dallas.
Caroline Like, it's going to be hard to narrow these things down on Sunday.
Yeah, No, it's a fun week for sure.
Let's take a quick word from hard rock and we'll come back with some big bets and Square versus Sharp and all that good stuff. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, hard Rock Bet. It's that time of year when every day feels like a big game day. You've got Pro football, college football, NBA, college twos hockey, it's all happen and on hard Rock Bet,
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I mean, it's it's all depend on the number.
Like again, I'm pretty heavy on Detroit obviously, people know that minus ten and a half minus ten, I've really taken a big position on that one since I'm getting there, people, So I've taken big positions in seven six and a half, Colts plus three and a half and you know, probably not that shock any people. Cowboys plus three and a half, I've taken a pretty big position. So I'm being patient
¶ CAROLINA PANTHERS VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
on the Rams and the Panthers and see where that number goes. But those could end up being pretty big bets of mine as well.
It worries me that my biggest bets so far this week are not on your list, the Raiders and the Cardinals.
I'm invested heavily in the Raiders' money line, but yeah, I'm just I don't know.
Something about that number just scares me a little bit.
All right, Well, now I'm scared that you're not aligned with what I'm doing. Let's talk about some parlays here. Let's choose three underdog parlay is because I know we've got probably five parlays that we really like for the favorites underdogs.
My dog blocks your dog. Your dog blocks my dog.
I could see Cincy, you know, if it's Joe Burrow, like, it doesn't doesn't terribly scare.
Me, all right, do Cincy? Dallas? Yeah, Pittsburgh plus one twenty five. Yeah, it's not terrible, dude. Cardinals, Cardinals, all right. I compan that they're they're plus one forty.
Yeah, Arizona, all right, the favorites. We're definitely gonna go with the Raiders. Oh yeah, we're gonna go with the Saints. What about Kansas City?
Yeah, we can do it.
Kansas City.
You know, I think I think them being five and six is very real.
Raiders Saints, Kansas City.
I want to do se Yeah, well yeah, do some adjusted lines do uh, Seattle minus five and a half?
Okay, Seattle minus five and a half.
Let's do one. How can we not take Packers?
Yeah, take the Packers.
I mean they if I get it's it's a divisional game, things do happen. But my god, they've they've lost so many bad games this yere. They can't drop another one at home in the spot.
All right, sharp versus square, give me your thoughts here. You can go first. Since you were at Carolina last week and I did not.
I mean I would do Dallas plus three and a half Hard Rocks unfortunately three.
I'll do uh Colts plus three and a half Cold plus three. Leaking confidence. As I said, you are a leaking a little. I feel much shafe for doing Dallas plus three and a half.
But I'll give you Dallas three and a half. It's kind of been there all week.
And you can get Dallas. Yeah, it's had a bunch of main books.
Yeah, you can get Dallas three and a half pretty much anywhere. I'm down to Sinci in Vegas.
Do Vegas? You love it?
I do love Vegas. I'll take minus three trying to get you off of it. You love it, I love the I love the Raiders. I love it all right.
And then survivor just real quick, as people always ask, you can't go wrong with these still with digitalgs people, if you still have Seahawks, you still have lines, you still have Ravens, just use them. If not, if you're really stuck, if you still somehow still have Green Bay, use them. If you still somehow have the Rams, I wouldn't waste them on the books. Your books are easily win that game. So there's a bunch of options there. I just wouldn't force in big favorites of the Rams
or or the forty nine ers. The four Niners could lose that game as well.
All Right, this has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back on Shrepper Square YouTube on Sunday morning. Simon and I are going to make utterly human, challenging decisions that we will regret the rest of the day. Will be back on Sharper Square YouTube later that day seven point thirty pm Eastern. To review how we did. Watch or listen on YouTube at sharp or Square. Like this video, subscribe to the channel.
You can also download it from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until next time. Love you.
Right now, it's time to take a step forward.
We gotta put something together. Back to back.
Let's go