SHARP NFL BETS Week 11: Bears-Vikings, Seahawks-Rams, Broncos-Chiefs, Bills-Bucs, Lions-Eagles and more

Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet.

We are part of the Volume podcast network.

This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chadmlman, I am joined as always buying, my co host, my companion Mike Caadre, my BFF, professional Better, Simon Hunter, Ella.

Simn Chat.

Are we doing?

Felt extra excited to introduce you today.

Fired up Week eleven?

Week eleven. That doesn't fire me up. That just makes me sad.

It makes me sad that we're at week eleven, that we're in double digit weeks, that we're staring down the barrel of the end of the season.

That just bums me out because I love football. This is our week eleven episode.

We're going to narrow down the options to get to our final five. We're inching our way closer. Remember subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify. But first, every single week, Simon, the Wise guys listen to the show, and every single week they've got opinions about what we are.

Saying, where we are leaning.

They like to tell us what they think about everything we discuss.

So let's get right to it. It's time for sharp call.

I have to answer this boat, all right, rain range telephone range.

Somebody said, maybe what you do?

Man, It's been a crazy week chat.

Honestly, a lot of calls about the different matchups and obviously the conversation we had, and the biggest one I got was our love for the Seattle. We're way off. Got I get on the RAM. So that's deffin again. We're gonna have to talk about.

By the way, I'm so glad.

I'm so glad because I was having a change of heart yesterday and I like it when everything lines up for us.

Yeah, So definitely, definitely a game we're gonna to talk about Rams. Another game we might be missing on, or just I personally might be missing on Panthers. Tons of pros love the Panthers there, so maybe I can just avoid that game another game.

Maybe I'll just avoid I really like the Bucks.

Tons of pros I've talked tough, really liked the Bills, and they have some good arguments about why they like that spot. But maybe we'll we'll go against them together chat. I don't know, we'll see with that game. But a lot of back and forth about just the pros loving the bills there, and that's what's holding that number because I thought this number before, By this show today, it's still five and a half. So love to talk about

I mean that game. We could have just walked into it as well. I know that full well.

We didn't know Lamar had a bad knee, so we took a number.

Took a spot. Hopefully you know Lamar is all right?

What am I then missing this game for me chat though?

All right, let's get into it.

Let's first talk about Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, which no one has mentioned. The line's been generally holding at five and a half bumped down five at hard Rock bet, but I'm seeing other places where the juice is indicating it's going to go up to six. I'm honestly surprised and a little bit disappointed that it hasn't been more aggressively

Could be a bounce back spot. Aaron Rodgers played terrible.

Maybe the line's deflated a little bit because of how bad the Steelers did against the Chargers. Maybe Aaron Rodgers and Pat Fryarmouth and Jalen Warren can get right against a terrible, terrible, terrible Bengals defense. We know how bad the Bengals defense is. We've also seen how good the Bengals offense can be, especially against a suspect defense, and right now the Steelers secondary is sus.

Like it's just terrible.

How are they going to defend against an exceptional group of receivers and Joe Flacco, who he's ageless.

Yeah, and we were both a little weird this one, and we just understand the line.

That's another game. We just thought it would make more sense at three three and a half. Like we said, it was just two weeks ago. This Bengals team upset and beat the Steelers team. And Steelers are banged up like they're not healthy. They have a bunch of injuries in a bunch of key positions as well.

Bengals like you just had coming off of bye week.

I mean, I thought it was funny Joe Burrow who's rushing back, which is really impressive for him, but that's not going to fix any of their issues. Like this Bengals team, they literally have been scoring more points, averaging more points with Flacco at the helm than than Joe. It doesn't matter. He's just he's not to fix this this defense.

It's just a trocia.

So I agree with you. The number makes sense. You know, we'll grab it and hope for a back door. Maybe Joe will have the lead and the back door will come from Rogers and we still have a key number above three and that won't matter for us.

But I thought it was interesting looking at Zach Taylor the head coach.

What can we take away from him and these type of situations after a bye week? Is he a good coach? Does you get guys prepared? He is one and four against the spread bag.

I don't expect anything. Taylor.

I mean, Zach Taylor man just.

Who some people it's crazy, So he's I mean, I can't blame him. The offense has been good with Flacco a lot of stuff, but apparently it's just been all matchup base. So the last time they played, Joe Flacca made fun of the Spitfik team. He said he'd even know the bank those offense. They were just running the same zone scheme over and over again. So I'm looking

I just I don't know. Something just seems awful.

I just can't believe we're getting two extra free points here on this Bengals teams. He said, Steelers defense is just as bad, just as bad as the Spangles defense.

So really weird line.

Yeah, it's a very strange line. Also, not that it matters one where the other. Trey Hendrickson doubtful to play this week with that injured hip, even after the bye week. When you say that about Zach Taylor, I'm just like, I don't care like he's.

So he just knows altrocious he is. He comes out of a bye week, He's won and four against divisional opponents.

Yeah, but he's also atrocious win they don't have a buy Like, I'm not betting on Zach Taylor in this.

Game, even more so.

Straight up as a dog in the spot as an underdog losing it by combined score of eighty five to twenty three.

Yeah, but here's the thing. Honestly, I'm just.

Trying to make it so we're protecting you. I don't know for to make it one of our five, but I don't.

Know that we're going to make it one of our five either.

But Zach Taylor just never entered the equation for me in this is similar to what that Mike Tomlin didn't enter the equation even though you know, historically we'd want to fade Mike Tomlin as a relatively big favorite at home in the division that that has tended to be where he hasn't coached as well, right and where the team has had a little bit of a letdown and they played down to the level of their opponent.

This is entirely It was actually good here for Tomlin.

Like historically, him playing a divisional opponent after a bad loss on the road coming home as a favorite, he actually does pretty well.

But I agree with you. I just do not like Ben. Tomlin is a big favorite.

Guys that played for me. They can tell you. One of my sayings I got a lot of sayings is don't seek comfort. I realized if you're going to have special outcomes, that you got to be comfortable. Being uncomfortable appreciating my resume is seeking comfort.

Joe Flacco was playing so well.

Joe Burrow's coming back early because he's worried about his job.

That's what's going on here. And I think we both know.

That's another Flacco stat He's nine to four in his career against his president underdog against Tomlin. So he always performs well against Tom and Donlin even said it so much.

There was the boogeyman.

He could not believe he had to face this guy again and getting him traded in his own division.

Yeah, that includes when they played against each other in pee wee football, because they're basically the.

Same age.

Houston at Tennessee Simon, we said we were waiting until this number got below seven. It took him minute, but at lanted below seven yesterday Wednesday afternoon, middle of the afternoon, and it's pretty much six and a half painted across the board minus one ten. No official word on CJ, but he did not practice. The Texans do not expect him to play this weekend, so this number was moving based on Davis Mills.

Jeffrey Simmons is hopeful he will be back.

I did bet the Texans at minus six and a half because I think they might only have to score one touchdown to cover this number. The defense is so good that offense is so bad. There's there's virtually no evidence that this offense can get the ball in the end zone often enough against this defense to to cover less than a touchdown.

To me, yeah, I'm on it as well.

It's the only polems I have for this one is it's tons of tons of pros are on this Titans team, and of course that's.

Why it moved. No one's no one in the public is betting.

It came out eating practice on Wednesday or Tuesday, I believe because it was concussion.

I think that's when it moved to six and a half.

It started moving Tuesday night to six and a half because that's when I bet it, and by today it was six and a half across the board.

So, like you know, the fact that it's it's it's more likely now that teaches out adds to that, you know, you're looking at the early money here and it is on Tennessee, so it looks like the public is joining them, which makes sense. It's Davis Mills on the road as a six and a half point favorite.

So I get where they're coming from.

I think we both agree we're taking this position for the fact that we trust this defense but.

Interesting and interesting number movement.

I don't want to tell people to bet it or hammer now because it could drop. If it is official CJ is out, maybe this does get the four four and a half, like this number.

Does keep dropping.

There's no way.

I know I thought that too, but I just I was shocked and moved off to seven once the CJ concussion no practice because I was like, I was not expecting him to play this week anyway.

So yeah, but if it was going to move, it would have already been. It would have been a much more aggressive move in the past twenty four hours from this.

Is a fair books.

Because it's gone under the key number now, where like they're taking tons and tons of bets and I'm sure moneyland parlays and teasers now in this Texans team, but they're fine with that position because they're in the back of round. I think they're saying, well, we think it's probably gonna be Davis Mills. That's why I thought it was big. They moved off the seven. So yeah, I'm just I'll be patient with this one. We'll see where it goes. But like you said, we're both in six

Well, we're of course going to be watching it. It'll be in the multiview.

There's no there's no chance.

I'm not like, there's so many good games I.

Know, But the problem is we have money. I'm not saying it's going to be in the contest. I'm just saying we have money on it. At this point. I know that in the early windows, I got five screens I can watch on. I'll watch the five games that are in the contest and that we have bets on, and I'm gonna have it on this game.

Let's say if I was at home, I'd probably put on the iPad. I won't even put on the TV.

I think this game will probably be on my laptop.

Yeah, that sounds right.

We'll see, we'll see.

I mean, I know I can know for a fact Baltimore Cleveland's going to be on there. I know that Cincinnati Pittsburgh's going to be on there. So we'll see. Simon, I want to talk about the Green Bay Packers as seven point favorites at the New York Giants, because on Tuesday we talked about the Packers and you added slightly into the Packers. I was wondering why, like we would even try to make a decision. We didn't know who was going to be quarterback. Now we know, famous Jameis

I'm want fans to know that I'm gonna do my best. You know, obviously I'm gonna have.

Fun, but I'm gonna execute, have a surgical execution, and just and just play ball, man, Like this is something I've been doing since I've been four years old. Now I just get to do it in the greatest city in the world. I'm gonna be saying with my son, what's the greatest city in the world. Yeah, that's a Hamilton reference to now I don't know, and a ten year reunion.

Yeah, I mean, come on him acknowledging Hamilton's ten ten year anniversary.

He's a legend. He's a legend.

It's like, Jamis is everything you love about betting. You and I talk about this all the time. You love the roller coaster of betting. I love knowing that I've got the win in the first quarter and then relaxing the rest of the day. I want to be right. I don't want the emotion. You want the emotion. Jamis is your type of QB.

Dude.

It's like, all the betting, how do you not put in a small taste on Jamis. He is the full experience on Sunday, the oh no throws, the oh yes throws, the holy shit throws, signing Jamis a little taste.

Come on.

Yeah, The biggest sin in life is that James is not like a top five quarterback in this week. It just for he has so much personality we just don't get from quarterbacks, right. Most quarterbacks are just robots, which they should be right, they're protecting their brand. They don't want to say anything that gets put on the board and used against.

Blah blah blah.

But Jamis is just so free and just not negative and just good vibes, like he never says the wrong things, even when he's talking crazy. It's it's great, like he just you never know where he's gonna go with it. So yeah, I I just thought this was a green

Outright if he had such a wild Gay's passing the ball.

Yeah, yeah, such a wild car.

I just I don't know if he has a weapons chat Like in other places where he's done stuff, he's actually had guys on the outside that can make plays. He does not have that in this scenario. And he's going against a really good defensive front. So I'm still I'm still on the Packers.

But I get it.

I get you're coming from. You want to go on the Giants and it's fun. I just I can't. I can't do it.

I just want to bet as bet put us on Jamis, Like he's won us so much money over the years, though, and then and then.

He's lost us so much many over the years.

Last year we had a pretty good run of like betting on Jamis at the right time and betting against Jamis at the right time, And this just feels like a bet on Jamis and I can't.

I'm kind of bummed that he stayed in the.

NFL, because I think he'd be so good as a broadcaster, analyst, full time social media influencer, whatever it is. Oh goodness, Simon, I'm just this is going to be on the TV just to watch Jamis implode or blow up the Packers either way. All right, let's talk about Tampa Bay at Buffalo. I mentioned this the other day. I think we've underestimated how much Bucky Irving means to the Buccaneers because we've continued to want to bet on the Buccaneers and have

Have we leaned too much into that.

The Buccaneers were running the ball thirty eight percent of the time with Bucket Irving. Now they're doing just twenty five percent of the time, and that impacts everything, Right, they have fewer explosive ten plus yard runs, but also it just changes the play action dynamic for Baker. It's much less effective, and I think that's having an impact on the entire game. It's like when you hurt your toe and it hits the whole kinetic chain. I think

Honestly, it sounds really simple. But this Bucks team, to me, the big difference has been Baker doesn't hasn't scrambled in about three weeks now, and if you look back, he took a really bad shot in that win against the forty nine ers, he hasn't. He didn't have one rushing attemp against Detroit, that single rushing attempt against the Saints, and same against New Orleans and.

Remember all those insane wames earlier in the year.

Yeah, so maybe that's what we're missing here, is he sustained an injury. He doesn't want to be taking hits like that, scrambling outside the pocket, and it's been a difference to their offense. You need that Baker magic for it to work for this team. So you know there are some stats too. We talked about this would be

This is exactly pow.

Yeah, I want to bet Baker here. I know I do. At five and a half. The numbers in my notes are we worried about Baker.

That's what I'm trying to get us here.

You're making a good point. I did the research yesterday. I think they're a different team, even though without Bucky Irving, we're seeing that in the trends. It could be a combination of the lack of play action and Baker not running the ball because he could be injured. All of that seems to be missing from this Buccaneers team right now. To me, it's it's not so much a bet on the Bills. It's going to be a bet on the box and how comfortable can we get on this team.

It just feels to me like.

So I can't convince you to back Josh Allen. Here you the Josh Allen stats.

I mean, it just seems like I know, I don't trust I just don't trust his Bills team either.

That's my issue. It's tough.

This defense is just it's not very good.

I know, but if Baker's not Baker, can you really take advantage of an attack him. So it's a hard game for me where it's like I wanted to be on the Bucks. I thought I was going to be on the book Sunday though I was me on Tuesday, and I just I have looked into it and I agree it's there's something missing with this book.

See, I really do think it's that Russian ability of Baker.

It's one of those weird games. Yeah, it's one of those weird games where we this would be a smash smart spot for us on a team that we almost always love to bet on a quarterback. We always love to bet. I don't know that we know enough yet. I think we need to keep looking into it. I haven't bet this game at all. I've tried to be patient.

I'm not trying to work people, honestly is what I do. And I'm like, I can't get anything. I can't get anything about if he's had an injury, if he's been resting an injury, because they haven't put anything on the injury port either, so nothing's come out.

So I don't know.

But I just when someone brought that up, I looked at it, go, oh my god, I've not even noticed that. I have not noticed because you get sacked so much. In my mind, I thought he's been running and scrambling, but he has and he hasn't gained a yard in three games.

That's that's so weird.

And you know now that you think about it, Like, especially against the Patriots, there were a couple of times where the pocket just cratered that would have been a Baker escapes and he didn't. It just he sort of just collapsed in the pocket.

That's interesting.

We got to keep talking about this one. I don't think we can commit to it one way or the other yet. I want to bring up.

The Chargers and the Jags.

We talked about the Jags the other day at plus three at hard Rockets moved down to two and a half, so we're seeing professionals come in on the Jags. I really left it in only because isn't this our week to fade the Chargers?

Right?

We'd want to say, oh my god, the Chargers looked great last week, let's bet them, But then we know we really should fade them. We talked about liking the Jags. I just wanted to know from your opinion, are you feeling strongly about the Jags. I am not feeling strongly about the Jags, but I could understand if you did, and I would be persuadable.

You know why, Simon, you know why I'm agreeable.

I think we both agree it's just about the number, right, Like at the three, I think we both kind of like taking the Jags of the dog here. But I just maybe maybe it's just the Trevor Lawrence thing. I just I hate having money on them and I don't trust them.

So at the three I like it for two and a half.

I'm just there's no way I'm going to make people invest money into this game. And the Herbert side, I know a couple of pros I taking a position on them in this game because they like the match with them in the sense that this Jaguars defense just I mean went through an absolute ringer the week before. Historically these defenses fail the next week. Right, If you have a defense that gives a twenty points or more, it's

Points in the fourth quarter of Davis Mills the week before? Chad.

So, we have a lot of stuff we've been into here situationally that I don't love. And when you dive into all the trends and anything like that, it's historically a terrible spot for Trevor Lawrence.

And what isn't what isn't a terrible spot right.

Because he just his whole career has been that way, So yeah, I'm just very uneasy about it.

But I both I think we both agree.

It's like this is usually where we go against the Chargers, but the Joe Alt things kind of making a fuzzy form where it's like it's making me love the Jaguars. I'm trying to talk myself out of it. There's other games I should have my money and don't go too heavy on it.

Two.

Like we said, hard Rock right now is mine two and a half. To me, that's a Chargers line. If you want to take a position and I won't fault you, But I'm going to be on the Jags play three.

That just feels like a smarter side.

But I just don't know how Herbert's going to be against a front and in a matchup that offensively. I think, you know, if Trevor Lawrence can move the ball downfield, they should be great matchup. But he might be down his number number two receiver again, Chad, it's a big deal.

Right Brian Thomas Junior might not be playing. Travis Hunter is out for the season now with a knee injury. Who could have seen a slightly built two way player not being able to make it through the season. That seems crazy to me. Yeah, he's a TONI he's a tony. There is a lot of social media sleuthing going on, a lot of memes on Twitter of Liam Khne just looking as disgusted as we are by Trevor Lawrence. The Internet,

Again, It's just year one, so I just can't I can't overact too much to it. Yeah, if Trevor Lawrence doesn't grow and improve this offseason in this offense, and next year he's still doing these mistakes, I could see ownership taking Liam's side over Trevor lawrence side. Like they've given Trevor enough time in years you've seen his offense. It works in my opinion, like the run block and all of it. I think the offensive scheme works. I just don't know if the quarterback is the right piece.

I wonder if he'd rather have Mac Jones right.

Now, donate that got him on the cheat right.

He had him, they had him, and he left. Maybe he'd be the better option for this offense. Hey, listen, I'm talking about Mac Jones. He's a quarterback in the NFC West. The two top teams in the NFC West are the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams. Simon, We're gonna have a deep conversation about this one because the Los Angeles Rams are going to be our brass balls Better the Week presented by hard Rock Bett.

You know what it takes brass balls there.

I know we had a long conversation on Tuesday about Seattle, and I think we both have sort of come to the conclusion that we like the Rams here.

For me, it was about some of the research I did.

On the matchups and the schemes despite seattle defensive prowess, and how the Rams can take advantage of that. You got a lot of blowback from the wise guys, and this one might be I'm not going to say bullying.

You, but effectively debating.

You, positioning you, changing your mind, moving you off your opinion. Tell me what you heard, why it change for you. I will share with you some of what I've researched and why it changed for me, But we both came to that independently.

Yeah, I just honestly my model like Seattle and I like Seat. Just the way they've been playing, I thought this would be a great matchup for them, But like you said, the more you dive into it, there's some weaknesses.

So just a.

McVeigh in his career twelve and five against the spread against Seattle and since twenty nineteen he's eleven and two against the spread. So just interesting. McVeigh has just dominated this franchise for so long now. And with Stafford, I was like, okay, is there a bump with the Stafford because this is by far the best quarterback he's had. In that run, He's five and oh straight up one and one against the spread against Seattle, covering by them with seven points per game.

So Staffords just dominated this matchup. And you know, I agree with you.

I probably overrated this Seattle defense a little too much because they really have not faced a juggernaut path of quarterbacks. They've had an easy kind of go here. So I think this will be a true test for them. And we're getting a great number with the Rams team that's just playing insanely well. One last amazing stat I saw Evan post.

Again.

I love stupid stats like this because it's just when you really look into it, it's actually pretty smart. Since twenty twenty four, when the Rams have seven games and they commit three penalties or less in those seven games, the following game they were seven to zero against the spread in that matchup, it's zero penalties last week.

Why is that smart though? What is that telling you? What's the correlation there?

That they're just playing sound football, which is like you see, all these other teams are super sloppy right now, Like that we joke that Raiders game the Raiders had nine penalties. You don't really win like that, especially when you only score seven points. The flip side, the Rams are putting up thirty five points and against a divisional opponent, Evan zero penalties on the road.

That's just really impressive to me.

It just shows when McVeigh, you know, he gets these guys playing at a high level and they're in sync like this, they just keep it rolling. So I just love that stack because just shows this team is just polly In tuned right now with everything.

And you know, like we've been saying the.

Rams fluky fluky loss against that Eagles team, and you know, they could easily be the number one seed right now NFC.

They've been playing like the best for sure.

So a couple other things to keep in mind. You just mentioned the money coming in on on the Rams. The public is all over Seattle like this is a pros Joker game. It is a they are the public dog here. That's number one.

Number two.

You mentioned some softness in the Seahawks defense where they are worst, and they're not bad at much, but where they are worst is defending against tight ends. And all of a sudden, the Los Angeles Rams have become the highest tight end usage team in the NFL. They're going four deep sometimes on tight ends. So we've been seeing that and it's super exciting to watch, but it's also

Yards and gets them into field goal range.

Like that could easily happen, and that could be that weakness could be the difference in the game. And I don't mind fading the public in this spot.

Agree.

And DeVante Adams not practice this week, but he got interview and he basically said, like I'm gonna be out there and be playing. I'm not going to miss this game, So don't be worried. If Divided it doesn't practice all week. I think you'll I'll still play, even I believe you is a bad hip, but I believe you'll still play.

Los Angeles Rams Brass Balls Better than Week presented by hard Rock Bet. Speaking of receivers who are injured and their status being questionable or debated, The Samfisco forty nine ers are at Arizona Arizona is a three point dog. We liked Arizona on Tuesday. It was at two and a half. We wanted it to get to three. It did get to three. I don't know about you. I bett did three. Marvin Harrison Junior is out with an appendectomy.

I don't think that matters to me. This is to me.

This is about Jacoby Brissett and Trey McBride, and we're just talking about tight ends and a Niners defense that cannot rush the passer right now has at the center of its defense a new signal caller replacing Fred Wonner who's played well. But it's still different when you're playing

Yeah, I'm with you.

Other car knows it's another game though, just like a Jags or I'm just betting this number.

I don't really feel that great about so you might have more opinions on this one than me. I simply just took this number number. Obviously.

Harris News sucks like that as much you want to downplay it, he is their number one. He's a big, big target who with Brissette seem like he's been playing pretty well, so not ideal, but like you said, we're just playing the number year in the matchup, and I just I can't have this fur NiTi team catching more than three points against anybody, let alone a divisional foe that can move the ball offensively. Like you said, train wrecks. Start to that game against Seattle. They fought, played well

Do you want to hear my ependectomy story?

Not really.

The story is about how.

I was trying to close the NFL preview at ESPN, the magazine and I wasn't feeling well and for two days I stayed in the office, barely leaving because my boss at the time it was the first NFL preview we were ever closing, and my boss was like, she was like, you don't look good, but we really need you. You're running this issue, we need you to be here

Did you not know this?

Yeah?

Because I was closing the NFL preview for ESPN the magazine in nineteen ninety eight.

But here's the kicker. Here's the kicker.

After the surgery, we had like our reviews and my boss at the time, who I ended up quitting esp IN the magazine because I just could not stand her. She was one of the worst people I've ever worked, who was still to this day horrible boss. Stole every idea, what would not like, give me any help with assignments, did not try to grow me in any particular way. In my review that year, she gave me the equivalent of a check minus in Disney grading rules for attendance,

Did you. It seems like the appendix one. I closed it, put you down for ten days.

I closed the issue. The point was, I closed the issue.

We had.

I had a buddy with it, basically the same thing, but unlike you, he was. It was college and he's boozing drinking. He goes, I think something's wrong. Is the same thing where it's like right down, like above the crotch, like below the stomach kind.

Of yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

So basically the same thing as you where you probably have like a sharp pain in that area. Yeah, And he can't He basically couldn't stand up right a part.

He says, he can't stand up.

He said, so much pain, And I go, dude, you should go to a hospital if you're in that much pain. He goes, but I feel fine sitting here. It's just when I stand up, I can't stand up. And I basically buddy put him on his shoulder and carried him down the street to a look doctor took.

It doesn't sound like he was so committed to his job.

He stayed at the office for two days in agony to close the NFL preview issue.

We haven't even really talked about the time.

That I wrote a cover story for ESPN the magazine, Uh after I had broken my back in a cab accident.

Next time, we'll get to that one.

Yes, Baltimore at Cleveland, this one was change choice when it was eight and a half. The number of hard rock is now down to seven and a half. You mentioned there's some lingering news or issue news about a knee issue with Lamar Jackson, But we were all over this before. I'm glad here that the wise guys are into it too. Give me some feedback on what they were telling you. I have some thoughts on a very specific point that you and I discussed about this game

Well, like I said, it feels like not that we locked into it, but it should. The spot we both loved were they. I feel like most of them knew something was up with Lamar, that he was a little banged up from that game, and they were taking position on it because ifyew of it. If you're already getting a bank of Lamore and he does play, you're handicapping him because he's not gonna have the same Russian ability against one of the best defensive lines in all football.

It's just I don't.

Believe any of it now, Like I'll believe it come Friday practice if he's with the first team, and you know that's reported by reporters, not the team itself. So yeah, it's I'm so glad we got the early line on Cleveland, but it's it's a tough game to try to handicap now because we really don't know if it's obviously if it's not Lamar, I mean, we're elated. I would tell people to bet now if you really think that. But I do think Wamar plays. I just he's such a competitor.

But for us, I wanted to play like I banged up Lamar.

I mean it's it's a great, great matchup for Miles Garrett and the boys and just dive into this game more. We talked a little bit about it. It's I'm not putting so much faith in Dylan Gabriel. I still think he's got issues, but I do think this cleand team better run the ball against his Ravens team. I don't think has fixed all of their issues. So yeah, still love the numbers, still love the matchup. It's just what

How do you feel about betting it at seven and

I still bet it, just because it's just the unknown of Lamar.

I'm just I don't want people to go too crazy. Because he does come back, this will definitely get back to eight. I think eight and a half. Unless the professionals really keep this down, I can't see it happens. It's just gonna be so much public money on this Ravens team. They're just one of the most belove teams of football right now, especially by the betting and public. They've just exactly what everyone predicted it to happen with them has happened Lamar even before he came back in

We talked the other day about how much better the Browns are at home than on the road, so I did do a little research on it. The Browns at home since the beginning of last season, when we really started to notice this trend, give up twenty points per game at home twenty nine points per game on the roads, with thirty percent less at home. They also give up thirty percent fewer rushing yards at home than on the road, ninety five versus one hundred and thirty nine. They also

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We heard about it on sharp Calls. JK.

Dobbins. Probably not planned because of a foot injury. He may end up going on injured Reserve. They've been very mom about it. Are you still there?

Still on it?

I'm definitely leaking a little confidence here because I thought this would be all pros on this Broncos team. But I just don't think guys trust bow Knicks.

But it's either.

Yeah, I mean that's fair. He's just he's regressed in a lot of ways. But I'm glad I saw a good Champayton stat that gives me a little confidence at least.

Uh, this is a good.

Champ Payton game where basically, if his teams only convert one red zone trip in two consecutive games in his career, they are fourteen and two straight up in that third game five and one against the spread in his career.

So take what you want from that. It's it really looks.

Like it's the type of thing where he just gets his offenses to bounce back and situationally after you know it's been a rough go. Like I'll be the first of him at this that Denver's game was atrocious. They should have won that game by twenty points or more, and just Bonicks gave him nothing and they didn't trust him, Like they just were not letting them throw at certain points because they just did not trust to putting the ball downfield.

So you know, this is just an interesting spot.

So just like the fact in the last decade, you know, Champagne seven to zero in the spot with the Broncos used two and zero straight up and against the spread in this exact spot where he's basically had a really struggling offense and they bounced back in these games.

So I don't know about you.

It's just the Mahomes factor, because Mahomes, just I looked at, historically dominates the Broncos in these games. He's been just great divisionally on the road. But I just I can't get to the fact how bad the Broncos have been his whole career he's been on the chief So it's like, I know, Bonnicks is no different those quarterbacks. I'm maybe I'm overrating him still too much, But it just feels like a lot of points for this this Chiefs team going against a really good defense where I.

Have some questions still about this Chiefs defense.

There's still some ways I think they have holes that teams have exploited, and the biggest one to be passing downfield against them. So I know, I just that's why I didn't make it sense. I just don't want to make people invest once again in this Broncos team. I have some other gross dogs I like better than this one, but I'm on it. I've taken a pretty large position on it at this point, but maybe I'll temperate as

Yeah, I feel like every time Bonnicks starts, he's so amped up he could throw the ball through a wall. And they missed so many opportunities in those first fifteen scripted where Sean Payton and a lot of coaches are at their best and it's usually calming for most quarterbacks, and BONNICKX look like he's ready to jump out of the stadium. And I also worry this defense without Pat Certain against the Chiefs, that's a different kind of test that they haven't really had since Certain was out, and

I like Peyton in this spot. I get it.

You should say that it is Chiefs off of Bye, which we have in the past.

We just automatically bet it, right, But true, I.

Know I'm not gonna lie to you. I'm not bought in on Denver at all here. I have not been even the other day when you know it's at four and you're hammering it and.

Can give you some defensive stats that might help a little.

Okay, that's here.

It's just like it's like I'm trying to find a reason there because I just it's just this number.

I just can't get over it. But defensive reason defense.

So they have forty plus sacks and this season they're holding opponents on third down to less than three percent conversion rate. They're the only defense to do that since nineteen ninety other than the two thousand Bucks.

Remember that team, right, So it's like covered that Super Bowl nice, Yeah, it was a sick one. I just I look at this.

I'm just maybe I'm betting the defense here, like that Houston game, and I got to stop thinking about bow knicks. But we're gonna need him to make plays. That's the hardest part here. It's like you're gonna need them to show up. It's just brutal, brutal reals. So yeah, I don't know if ial fortunate to be one of our fives this week. If I'm really gonna be like Chad, you gotta make guy take this one.

If it was four and a half.

I probably could have got you there, But like you said, the fours have comeback down. The three and a half feels like it's going to be out. So I do like the Broncos, but there's other dogs I like better.

This week Detroit at Philadelphia. You turned me around on this.

The other day.

I bet the Eagles at two and a half. That is where the number is right now. It's not the best of the number, but it's still below three. I still liked it.

I reran my model, because you know, I got a model.

I worked on it during the off season with my intern from Harvard's stats department, not even kidding. And I think, if you can give me a good team that came off of a tight win against a good team that just had a big win, I'm still going to get value on the good team off.

Of the tight win. So I started to come around on the Eagles.

You're saying from the wise guys that it seemed like it was split, but you kinda had me buy into the Eagles the other day when I think I was starting to lean towards the Lions.

Yeah.

I the hesitation, I feel like is a lot of the why Gus you are taking positions on the Lions because of all those crazy numbers and trends about golf in prime time at night and how good himmc.

Cambell have been covered. They're like covering machines.

I think they're like sure, something like twenty five minute against the spread. It's just something insane in these night games. And then you factor in a stat we gave it ear in the year, right when they blow teams out, they cover at an insane rate. They're like a seventy percent cover rate after they win by seven points or more the following game. So we know all this, we know what we're walking through. This is a really good team, the Lions. Like we said, it's about the number, so

We moved hard Rock was hard Rock was the last one.

Though hard Rock held at the two for a while, and they did eventually move to a three and then immediately went down to So there is a ton of resistance to the three I feel like for professionals here with the Lions, which I do get in matchup wise. Like I said, I don't know if the books are accounting for how good this defensive line now is for this Eagles team with the upgrade to the position, because for about four weeks there we had just two or three guys. We had no rotation. So you saw last

If that's what we're going off.

Don't to impugne the media.

This isn't This isn't about how bad the media is. Although if you watch you know social media, boy, they ask a lot of stupid questions and open locker rooms and press conferences.

Yeah there you go chat.

So I just he basically said it's him and Jaile have no issues. Jalen's playing well, He's doing what's being asked of him. He's got no problems with the OC. He's doing what's being asked of him. So that leaves one person he's got issues with, and that's a big deal with's Sirianni.

So we'll see what happens.

Basically that it came out that him Syrianny had a call and that fourth down play and hurts and AJ went rogue and just said it's it's going to you no matter what.

Go deep. So there's a ton of drama.

I mean, a couple of weeks ago against the Box, was it is that we talking about?

No last week?

Last week? I don't remember the play.

It was fourth It was fourth down for our lives. The Eagles should have either pumped or kicked a field goal against green Bay and they went for it. You don't remember this fourth on like it was like a fourth and eleven or something crazy.

Maybe I went to bed at this point.

Well, he took a deep shot to AJ and it was incomplete and they left basically thirty seconds left for green Bay that maybe tie with a field goal at end the game.

So it was just people were like, what the hell, why wou's.

Henny call that play? And he basically was just like, I didn't call that. They they checked out it. So there is a ton of drama, and I get why people are freaking out about this Eagles team, but just look at the matchup on the field. I just love this matchup for this Eagles team, and the public's flyin into a little bit. Like you said, the lines they're getting all the money, all the tickets right now, they are heavily a public dog, and then the line is moving against him.

Like I said, it's hit three to a couple of books.

So if it touches three comes Sunday, I will feel much better about our Eagles position because I mean some real pro money is coming again on the two and a half, which most people listening, that's what they're taking on because right now all the pro money came in on the one and a half. So love the Eagles here, but obviously, like Chad said, we wish we give out the best of the number.

You know what, one team I don't worry about when there's a lot of drama, The Eagles.

Philly Justice, Welcome to Philly, bitch.

There's always drama like there has been drama. I think Nick Sirianni attracts the drama. I think people wanna like him, not like him. I don't think he cares. I think he says whatever is on his mind. I think he likes to be partly trolling and enjoys it. And I think the Eagles have the kind of personality that the Bears had in the eighties and the Cowboys had in

Turmoil in that locker room.

And I don't think it matters, Like I just don't like that's It's all noise to me, And it's what's.

That, Sirianni? He is John Madden.

So they put up the stat the only other quarterback that more wins through the first five seasons in NFL history percentage wise John Madden, And I thought about that comparison. It feels so right that man joined a team of crazy drama raaders team just the head cases, and no one took him serious for about five years, even though he was leading the league and win percentage. So I'm one of those people I hated Tierianni.

I just hate the way he handled the media that way.

He talks to the fans all of that, but all he does is win and you gotta respect it. And like you said, he seems like he thrives when there's tons of in house dramas. So you're right, maybe I'm over to too much. Strike Just there's so much affilure right now. I can't get over how bad it is.

Yeah, I mean, you're in the middle of the white noise. You can't get away from it. Whereas like I'm just seeing it as funny and it's the same story every single week and every single year with this team, and this team. Honestly, I know they're not being nearly as effective, but there's something about their lack of effectiveness that to me, I'm only watching Jalen Hurts, and Jalen Hurts when he's on the field doesn't seem bothered by the lack of

It's fair.

But like last year, I had a sneaky I guess I was thinking because I gave him out heading the year.

Bout was just all in on that ego steament.

Wins Super Bowl, where this year I just have so many questions where last year I did not. Like I had one big question. It was about that defense, and after the bye week they got it right the Eagles after their bye week, the defense looked amazing, but the offense left left a lot to the imagination. So yeah, this is like I said, this is a perfect spot for this egos offense to get right against a banged up lines defense.

Let's talk about that crazy Las Vegas Raiders plus three and a half Simon Sas against the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night. Uh, you gotta want this, you gotta you really gotta want it.

Explain yourself, Simon Hunter on the Las Vegas Raiders.

I still love it the pushback I got for people, the pros that have talked about this when it is that Cowboys did get people back to their defense that are coming off into reserved and you know, could that be a big upgrade for them, Sure, But my argument with them is it's like trying to fix a whole on the sinking ship with a truly a band aid, Like there they have so many issues. Their top corner

Pockets and stafe stuff.

But I saw this week he's basically playing all these clips from people in the media trashing them, saying how bad he's been and how that loss was on him, like he did nothing in that Denver game and they can't stop the run, everything like that, And I just love that type of thing for him, where he's just.

Going to be a mental case in this game. So it's it's shocking.

To me that there's no pros on this Raiders team yet. But like I said, maybe Sunday Morning shot, I'll have more guys join me. But it's just because it's the Monday game. I feel like it's either been for the pro side at least they're taking the Cowboys, or nothing at all at this point.

All Right, we got a lot to discuss.

We've got a couple of games you missed that I like, Oh, tell me what I miss Where are we at with this Panthers team?

I told you I got a lot of calls about it.

You know what's funny?

Are we missing it here?

I wonder if we are too.

I was actually just scrolling through because I was looking ahead to our underdog parlay, and the Panthers jumped out as a team that we would want to put.

In as the underdog parlay.

And obviously I've got trepidation because of what's happening with Bryce Young in the past couple weeks.

He just hasn't looked good. But I do.

Think I think there's much more systemic issues with the Falcons than with the Panthers to.

Be catching three and a half. That's I feel like we both aree on that. Yeah, points for a the Falcons team that has so many issues.

Speaking of social media, there was a clip the other

Yeah, And we didn't even talk about, which was a mistake on my part. Atlanta is coming off an overtime game and an international. This has never happened in the history of football. Usually it's happened five times, will all

So all right, I'm into that. I'm into that because, to be honest, I think we were struggling to find five that we love, not even like agreed on, just like five games that we were really in love with.

So I could see that and.

Then before you got just going to throw a two games, just I'm line moving while we're doing the show live Tampa has moved to plus six at a couple of books Jesus, So yeah, that's that's happening as we speak, and the Bears are shifting to two and a half.

So yeah, we talked about a little bit.

We both I feel like we're trying not to We both are liking on the Bears at plus three.

That's just and this was three and a half.

This was at three and a half by the way, last night, So it to me it's about.

We don't know because we're doing the show right now, but it's two and a half everywhere now.

I do not like the Bears at two and a half.

No, no, no, no, I like King.

I'm bringing up for people if they want to grab the Bears. I grabbed the three if you can before it moves.

That game was at three and a half.

All right, Well, that the Vikings at two and a half might be an interesting play on Sunday, Okay, I keep thinking about the Bears keep coming back against really bad teams, but like.

Well, Caleb against the NFC North, right.

Can I invest in JJ McCarthy. You know, that's just tricky.

It's a really tricky one in his career, right, end of the year.

All right, So let's let's take a pause here for a second, because I want to recap. Cincinnati plus five and a half is a game we're both going to be on. Houston minus six and a half. The Bucks are now a plus six. That's scary. I'm glad we really haven't bet that. We know we like the Rams plus three. We know we like I mean minus three. We know we like Cleveland, uh plus seven and a half, plus eight plus eight and a half. We think we

Get it. The Raiders are tough. It's tough.

Raiders are tough.

You gotta keep fan This Dallas team is a big favorites. It's been profitable this year, fading.

So we got some decisions to make on Sunday. Give me your biggest bets right now. It's it sounds like Panthers might actually be in there.

Pull up close pants and be a man. They're getting there.

Like, honestly, I really took a heavy position on Cleveland, like we talked about. I really thought not that that number was gonna come steaming down because of what we were talking about, but got very lucky that I bet it before the all the Lamar news. Still like at the seven plus seven and a half as long as above the seven, rams keep hitting it like I got tons on two and a half of a ton of minus three. If it gets a minus three and a half,

But it seems like it keeps getting to the three.

It's not going the way I wanted to, so I might just have to suck it up and just take the two and a half on this Eagles team.

All right? With three? Team parlay for underdogs.

My dog blocks.

Your dog, Your dog blocks mo dog.

I would do Carolina, mm hmm, gotta do Cincy Cincinnati.

Yep.

That was on my list plus two. Were you Cardinals?

Well, we didn't talk about the Cardinals. No, we did briefly.

I know I'm not crazy about it, but like it's either them or the Jacks.

Is a good home dogs.

Let's do the Cardinals, all right?

So three team Parlay, Carolina, Arizona and Cincinnati favorite Parlay.

Gotta go Rams, Rams, Ravens, Ravens, Houston, Houston, Green Bay, Green Bay.

I mean it's tough, but it's it brings the juice down. First little bit, Philly.

I was looking at Philly.

It feels like we could probably avoid that anxiety a little bit.

Can't we?

What Eagles? Yeah, speak for yourself?

Allright, fine, let's do Philly. Let's do silly all right? Sharp versus Square? You won last week?

You had just dominating you chat. You gotta get together, brother.

You had Dolphins plus nine and a half.

I gotta go with my guys. I guess give me Panthers plus three and a half.

All right, then I will take gimme Houston. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast Network. Will be back for more Sharper Square on YouTube on Sunday morning. As an eavesdrop on an intimate conversation between me and Simon and which we will make utterly painful human decisions in a total panic that we will regret the rest.

Of the day.

We'll be back on Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night, seven thirty ish to recap all of that misery. Watch We'll listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like the video, subscribe to the channel. Also Donalds from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, rate review subscribes say whatever you want.

Feedback is a gift. Until next time, Love you.

Hey, let's recap for