¶ Intro / Opening
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock That.
We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention.
I am Chad Milman, I am.
Joined as always buy my BFF, my companion, Mike Campadre, my co host, Professional Better Sigmon Hunter.
Hello, Simon, Chad.
Are we doing?
I don't feel like I got English enough on that. Heedo soymon A's beat.
There you go, dude. There is so much.
News impacting the lines since the trade deadline, and there's also just been general massive line movement overall since we did our show on Tuesday.
Freaking wild, absolutely freaking wild.
I don't know if you've got any deep deep thoughts on that. Let's hold them because I want to hear what the wise guys have to say in sharp calls. This is our Thursday, Week ten episode. We're going to narrow down the options on the five picks we like the best. We're going to inch our way closer. Subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify. Let's get into this thing. Every week, you know what we do.
We are going to hear from Simon's fellow professional betters on all the conversations we had on Tuesday, they've always got opinions. I have no doubt they'll have a lot of things to say about what we discussed.
Let's get too sharp, calls.
Hal answer, it's foot all.
Right, rain range, telephone range. Somebody said, maybe what you do.
Man, Yeah, let's start where you guys are on the opposite of us, which you know I always always love here on the other side. And the one that really jumped out was the Chargers. Hearing a lot of love from the pros on the Chargers, maybe we're suckers. I just can't get over again. Plus three here. I just that's gonna be a fun one to break down.
Some Yeah we're gonna that's the Chargers Steelers game, and yeah, we're definitely gonna discuss that one.
So good.
But yeah, a lot of pros love the Chargers, Big Chargers, Chargers spot. I guess let's start with the Rams as well. A lot of pros I talked to Tuck Rams money shocked by that one. Commanders was a big talking point this week. I definitely remember us, or at least myself. I like Detroit. I still do. I'm happy they're betting it down. That's a fun one. We can break down some more. Patriots, couldn't believe it. A lot of love from the Patriots. I once again, I'm dug in. I like,
really like Tampa. Starting to love it even more as I see the injury report and what guys are healthy for this Tampa team. So pretty interesting how much love there is for this Patriots side and the sides we agree on. Chad, we already knew Jets that was gonna be a pro side. Yeah, it's it's fluctuated the numbers since the trade deadline.
That's gonna be a fun one to break down. Miami.
Tons of love from the pros. Tons of love for Houston.
¶ START
I'm going against the pros here. I didn't even mention it the Raiders. Talk to some pros that really like that one again. Another game I'll hold steady fast and I really like Denver in that spot and the last one that shocked me. Tons of love for the pros on this Bear side game that I feel like we were kind of on the other side of it.
Yeah, talk that we.
Kind of like the Giants. I'll give you some reasons why they liked that Bear side.
If we break that game down later.
Oh, we're going to break it down because it's one of the games that I was thinking about, and it was in contention for brass Balls because that number has moved quite a bit and I haven't been able to figure out why other than professional money coming in on the Bears in this spot. So you also mentioned another game that I've been getting more and more nervous about, which is The Box, because I cannot figure out how that line hasn't moved from two and a half to
three yet. So some pushback from the Wise guys is probably why. But first let's get to that Raiders Broncos game. Obviously, it's our Thursday show, so a lot of people might not hear. I might not hear the show until after the game. You're getting some feedback from the professionals on the Raiders' side. We both love Denver and like this wasn't even a question. We actually were debating if Denver was going to be Simon Says or Chat's choice because
we both liked it so much. We liked it at eight and a half, it's now at nine and a half. I don't know what the Wise guys are seeing in the Raiders. You can't take anything from that game against a Jags team that lost their best pass rusher because
¶ SHARP CALLS
he tried to punch a guy in the face, and you're still playing against a not very good defense. Brock Bauers was wide open every game. I mean, every play. Isn't all this stuff that Broncos can account for in a short week in a game the Raiders went to a full overtime and they're not a very good team.
I don't get it. I don't get it.
Yeah, I think mister White, guys I talked to, they just don't trust, you know, a quarter about like bow Knicks to be this big of a favorite in a divisional game, especially if you look at the history of Denver, right, And this is the hardest part too, because to me, it's a lot of it's irrelevant the history of Denver before Champagne took over. But they have not won against a divisional opponent in our primetime game since like twenty seventeen.
Okay, doesn't matter, doesn't matter.
That was my exact pushback. It's like, well, if you look at those teams from those years, they were bad, They had bad coaches, they just weren't good, and they've been in a really competitive, tough division all throughout those years. So that makes sense though why they'd push back because it is technically a huge number in a divisional game in.
A short week. But I already gave it out.
I gave out that overtime stat, which to me is just makes so much sense, and it was actually wrong.
I thought it was three and twenty three.
I forgot last year the Bears and this exact spot actually won uncovered or covered last year against the Lions. Remember that insanely fluky game on Thanksgiving.
Yeah, dude, where the Lions should have been up seventy two to nothing in the first half, and.
Then even then they're up twenty one nothing or twenty one to three the first half, and somehow Bears came back and covered really late. So you know, I'm not gonna get pushed off this one. I get where they're coming from, and I'm with you. I just think defensively, schematically, they can take away bowers and then what are you going to do as an offense, Like, I know they're trying to establish a run, but it just now has
been working. Chip Kelly whatever he's going to do. It's not been working with that run game and Gino.
I still think.
Even in that game, as good as he looked, he still had so many horrible throws, so much questionable moving with his feet, and it's just a really tough spot. Offs We talked about it being on a short week here on the road against the Denver team that you know, we put it as one of the best teams in all football, like we're respecting that way defensively, especially, so I know it's a lot to swallow bow nixt year, but I can't get away from it.
¶ LAS VEGAS RAIDERS VS. DENVER BRONCOS
Cha.
I really like it, And I don't know, maybe we do put in the contest multiple figure it out because there are five games I like this week. But people know I really love this game. I love this matchup. First half, full game, Debra, I'm.
All over it.
Yeah, same, same, same, not shame, same. Maybe we'll be shamed, but I don't think so. This was one like coming out of my one in four malaise. This is one of the games that made me start to feel like, Okay, I can see it, I have clarity, I'm feeling confident, felt good about this one.
God we need it. We cannot start the week O one.
Dude, we freaking need it, as Bob Scuccy, our old friend Bob Scuccy like to say, we need this for our lungs. We are underwater, all right, New York Giants at the Chicago Bears. This line, it.
Blew up over the last forty eight hours.
It got up to four and a half. It's down to four at hard Rock. We've talked about hard Rock. It's a sharp book, so that gives communication of what the wise guys think when this line got to four and a half.
But they also love the Bears at three.
They love the Bears at three and a half, and some pushed it up too, from four to four and a half. I started to see the Giants and I talked about this on Tuesday. The Bears run defense is so bad, and I mean not their run defense. Their past defense is so bad, and their secondary is so bad. You could see how Jackson Dark could have a lot of success against the Bears and a defense that, by the way, has not been able to hold anybody under
a twenty five point game. I'm exaggerating, but that's basically the line of demarcation here. Unless they were committing forcing a bunch of turnovers. They won with the Commander. They went against the Commanders because of a bad handoff that got them to win. In that primetime game against Jayden Daniels, they beat the Cowboys because of a bunch of turnovers. They beat the Saints, which still came close to covering
because of a bunch of turnovers. Every other game they've had, it's going down to the wire and it's close, and they're winning because there's something fluky happening, and because Ben Johnson is a miracle, not because this team is very good. So four and a half just feels like too many points. I'm surprised to hear the wise guys say they're liking the Bears here.
Yeah, I'm probably gonna have to join on me at Chad, I if you really don't like a side here, I think there is still a value on the total. Total is down to forty six and a half, and all the reason behind this movement, to me is because of
the weather. People like, we're tracking models, you're getting some info, and right now a bunch of different models are predicting rain or snow and very cold temperature in this matchup, which to me favors this Bears team that wants to run the ball heavily and has one of the best run schemes off football against the defense that is really bad.
Giants are bottom thirty in the league.
They're they're the worst, are they now?
Yeah, so the Bears.
Like, you're right, I'm just like, obviously, I have a strong opinion about the Bears. Their run offense has been so good and that is a major major factor against this team. And the weather, you're right, could be it just might play into the way Ben Johnson wants to
¶ NEW YORK GIANTS VS. CHICAGO BEARS
play this game. It'll give an excuse not to let Kayleb Williams throw the ball.
Yeah, and again it's you can take these positions and get out of it Sunday if this all blows over and these models wire turarly off, but you know they're shooting pretty accurate. Two three days out here, the line has come down from forty nine to forty six and a half. They'll let you know. The books are getting really really respected money heavily towards the under. But you're looking at the splits right now, it's still mostly towards the over. I mean, the tickets and the money say
towards the over. At the public obviously, like we talked about, they're going to be on this Bears team, Like, no one's going to be trusting the Giants right now, like what we talked about, right That's why we kind of like this the Ghiants team. This feels like a good spot for them, playing against an inflated Bears team that got really lucky. They covered all those for those people last week, and those people are coming back now hitting the Bears again.
So I'm like you, I wanted to be on the Giants.
Were shocked to hear the professionals were taking these heavy positions on the Bears, and now you dive into it and see what the weather could be like, this just feels are a great spot for the Bear scene. Compared to a young rookie quarterback in Jackson Dart who already has fumbling issues now playing in bad element weather, I don't know. I just I can't get there the Giants
if I know that's scenario. So yeah, just if you wantn't want to take as side here, I still think the underreas value on it.
I hate the Bears in this spot.
I know it's such a Giants number, it's brutal.
Such a giant's number. I'm gonna wait. I'm just waiting. I don't think it's going to get to five. But I'd rather just see the weather and know what I'm betting into on Sunday. I don't have to bet this one, So for me, I'm gonna wait. New Orleans at Carolina. Carolina is a five point favorite. Five and a half, move to five, still five at hard Rock, five and
a half in a lot of other places. I want to say play the number, but the truth is, like this number home or road Division dogs of five plus points, It's basically a fifty to fifty proposition. So if you're looking at it from that point of view, there is no real edge in terms of historical precedent. Caroline at home is great. The Russian game is great. They're really confident. The Saints are not. They might not have an NFL quarterback on their roster.
Yeah, the number just spooks you. It sews me too.
I'll probably end up just taking a large position with Carolina on the money line and just avoid this game if I can, because it does feel like it's mispriced, and this is a great spot for this Carolina team at home again, it's what we just said is just a non existent offensive quarterback and could he show up here and have a game of his life. Yeah, we've seen that happen all the time. Right, these guys pop
for one game. But just as a betting man, I love this number and working against the Panthers just the issue of them being a favorite, right, I think they're on a crazy streak. They're zero to ten as a favorite. And that's a lot of bright young too. I think he has three or four games mixed in there. So yeah, I'm a game. I'm not basterly having into. It's just I found other games this week I like a lot more.
But still on Carolina side, still taking the number at minus five, but much more comfortable putting their money line in it. Wow, it's up to the minus two forty five, so people been hitting it. It was rest and yeah it's been getting hit, this money line on the Panthers.
You know a game that we are into and I hate to say it, and maybe it's the sickos in us. The Cleveland Browns are visiting the New York Jets on Tuesday. When we started the show, the Jets I think were two point favorites. It had gone up from one and a half to two. During the show, the news broke that Sauce Gardner was being traded to the Indianapolis Colts for multiple picks. Later in the day, it was announced that the Jets were trading Quinn Williams, their star defensive tackle,
to the Dallas Cowboys for multiple picks. Yesterday, it was announced that Quincy Williams, the Jets starting linebacker Quinn's brother, All Pro in twenty twenty three, was being benched for lack of performance. We still don't know who the quarterback
¶ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS. CAROLINA PANTHERS
is going to be for the New York Jets. On Sunday, the New York Jets GM said that the Jets are still trying to win. He knows how much those guys try. We are st trying to win this season.
Quote.
Maybe he and Aaron Glenn are not in the same page, because Aaron Glenn said yesterday, I said we would make the fans proud. I didn't say it would be this season. That gives you a lot of confidence. Here's the problem. Here's the problem, Simon, You're ready. The line has moved to Jets plus two at hard Rock plus two and a half everywhere else and the fundamentals of this game remained the same. It was never about the Jets defense.
It's about the Jets offense against the Browns defense. Because we have zero expectations at Dylan Gabriel, whether he's playing Quinn Williams or Sat Gardner, whoever else is going to be playing in those positions, is not an NFL quarterback. So we were betting when we liked the Jets the other day against Dylan Gabriel. All why wouldn't we still be betting against Dylan Gabriel. This is a massive move.
Yeah, a game though I needed to be Justin Field's Honestly, I know it sounds stupid, but I like his matchup a lot against this defensive front in the Cleveland and Shockling his career. He does really well against these type of defensive fronts when he plays a defensive front that's you know, got a high sack rate about four percent.
He's four and two against the spreading his career, which again doesn't sound great if you look at Justin Field's career, It's probably the only positive ats Daddy has when.
You really dive into it.
He's just not a covering guy his whole career he's just had a rough go of it, and looking at this matchup, it really is kind of weird that the public is so comfortable hammering this brown side even with all the trades. Even before that we were talking on
¶ CLEVELAND BROWNS VS. NEW YORK JETS
our show, they were loving him then as a favorite, I mean as an underdog. Now they're really still loving him as a as a favorite. And this to me is going to come down tons of pros, I know, professional groups. When I come on the Jets, I mean again, I get what we're doing it, but there I am also a little weary of betting this one because we have to remember these arghuman beings. How are they going to
respond to what just happened from their front office? Like their front office basically just wave the white flag on the season like they I agree with it too. I mean some Jet fans are complaining. It's like, dude, you guys, that was like our dream scenario. You dump two guys that I don't want to say they're being overpaid, but just they're not going to help you get to where you need to be in the next two to three years. You need to totally tear it down. So you know, Dallas,
horrible trade. In my opinion, Colt's very questionable. But you know, for the Jets, I love the move. You're stocking up in what should be really good drafts. Now to have the front office to make the right picks, that's to be determined. So just for this game chat, I like it. It's really about the number though, this to me is going to come down if you can still get the plus two plus two and a half. You hear this, I would take the position on the Jets once it
gets blowed the two. I don't know how much I'm gonna be invested in here until I know exactly who the quarterback is going to be, and if that is in fact justin fields, we can re re enter this one on Sunday morning. Talk about putting in the contest, but you said it right now, I'm betting into the two and a half without even knowing who the quarterback is.
Yeah, I am as well.
The flip side of the team sort of being frustrated is you guys get a chance to prove themselves in a wide open situation and put on tape for somebody for next season how well they can play.
I don't.
I just I never buy the fact that guys are going to stop competing. When you're a professional athlete getting paid, you want to stay in the league.
This is your best chance to do it.
There's gonna be a guy who's getting a chance to start, a cornerback who hasn't a chance to do that.
Oh, I'm in Like on the like Breese Hall, Briesaw had a foot out the door, was almost on the Kansas City Chiefs. Kn't it wake up today? And he's still on the Jets. That's got to be weird mentally, Like yeah, and I'm sure you'll get it back. He's a professional. I just think of all of those snares like that, the guys on this team, you know, you're so close to being on a winning team. Obviously not everybody.
I mean some guys went the Dallas. That's a that's a tough trade, but you know, I just I thought it was really interesting that they didn't move Brisoll because they apparently wanted a third and then take a fourth and it's like, what are you doing, Jets?
Just sell it all, man, you're trying to lose here and Bristol.
Again and some of it's back the Jets here. I am so happy he's still on this team, they need them offensively. He's by far their best weapon.
Well look, the flip side is Brisall keeps showing how good he is, and next year he just gets a bigger deal from somebody. Yeah, so you know, so yeah, I hate to say it, but we're kind of on the Jets Jacksonville at Houston.
Houston.
Look, on Tuesday we talked about wanting to wait on this game until Houston was an underdog. Houston is an underdog. It's one at Hard rocked that one and a half in a lot of other places.
We're just betting on the defense.
We're not betting on Davis Mills, who we would expect Davis Mills is going to be a little bit better because I mean, obviously he has limitations, but he's got a full week of practice. He's not coming in and then end at the beginning of the second quarter any game plan that was built for somebody else entirely. So I like, I still like Houston here a lot. I like him as an underdog a lot.
Simon be patient. Hard Rock here in Jersey's already just moved the plus two.
So really, yeah, so there's gonna be money coming on the Jaguars. The Jags have owned the Texans again their last couple of meetings. They've just even when CJ has been the quarterback, they've kind of owned them. It's a really weird matchup, just divisional. When you talk about time, there's a couple of divisional games this week, you'll I'll give out the trends. There's just trends that favors certain teams, certain matchups.
So yeah, game, I'm going with you on.
I really love the Texans here, but I'm trying to be patient, trying to avoid this if I can, because it's like I'm not going to force this one unless I'm getting really good numb or so.
It's two at hard Rock right now.
A couple of books, like we say hard Rock's a short book, A couple of public books have already popped two and a half, so this could get to three by Sunday. Like I just see the public really coming on this Jaguars team as the week goes along. Here again it's it's Davis Mills, Like I get it, like there should be a great spot for this Jaguars team, and we love Houston defense. They can only do so much, like we say, all the time. So I'm like you, I still like Houston. I'm gonna be patient here, get
a better number. Like I said, this is moving up people. You can get two and a half right now, key number. I'm gonna grab down Houston.
A lot of.
A lot of sort of be patient conversation right now because.
The numbers are moving against us.
I just don't want to take bad numbers here and when we can get it looks like we're gonna get some good numbers this weekend, right.
So if you can get I would say, you can get Houston two and a half. Get Houston two and a half. I don't know that it'll go to three. At some point, there's going to be like an aggressive amount of buyback from professionals. I'm actually surprised as getting as high as it is, knowing that most of the people I'm talking to like Houston as an underdog and we're just waiting for it to get to that number. So the fact that it's still going up, what is that saying to me?
Right now?
What do you mean the some pro promo pro money's in this Jaguars side. I know well that you know it's okay.
It's a little bit nerve wracking.
I like it when we're all when we're all aligned, when everyone's together, it's like a group sweat.
New England at Tampa Bay.
There we go, finally some good games.
Tampa Bay is a two and a half point favorite. This was Chad's choice. I got to tell you, I'm a bit disappointed that it hasn't moved even a half point to three. It's especially concerning because while the tickets are on the box, even more money is on the Bucks, and so that tells me that there is some wise guy I love for Tampa Bay despite what we talked about in sharp calls, and I kind of don't get it.
Like the Bucks have had extra rest, which means Baker is hopefully cured of some of the ills that ailed him. We don't know about Bucky Irving. We know that their offensive aligned could be improved. We know there's going to be a lot of passing in this game. Fine, but I like the coaching matchup. I like the Bucks at home. I like the Bucks coming off rest. I like fading the Patriots when they're finally playing a competitive team on
the road, a more challenging team. Give me the other side here, unless we're both aligned and the Bucks are going to be the ones that we love.
Ye alone too. I'm just people be cautious here.
It actually has said three a couple of times this week, and it's been bed away very quickly. So there is some very smart money that's resisting this at three. So it's letting you know that professionals are betting that this will be a close game, where me and you are betting that this won't be honestly, because we're taking two and a half here. We know the deal with Baker, right Like, he wins close games, usually by a field goal at two and a half.
Again, like, I'm like you, I can't believe we're getting away with this.
It feels like a very very nice number with a quarterback that tends to play close games under.
A field goal.
So I get where the pros are coming from. I get their position on this New England team. They've been riding them a lot this season, they've been paying them out. This is another true test spot for New England, right, Like, this is a game where I think we're on alignment, Like they should get rolled here.
A lot of questions.
About the health this Bucks team, Like Chad said, we don't know you have Bucky Irvin's back. Chris Godwin still hasn't practiced yet this week. Those are two huge pieces to all pros to that offense that they need in this game. So I'm hoping they come back and when they get cleared, the number does move.
Maybe that's what's holding up the lot line moving here.
But yeah, just breaking this one down even you know, not just gonna give Will Campbell too hard of a time last week because you're going to again smiles Garrett or two weeks ago. And then he kind of got embarrassed last week against Atlanta, like Atlanta's line got a ton of pressure against his doingland front. You expect the Bucks defense and the blitz scheme they run, you know,
should get pressure against Drake Man. We've seen him kind of that's the only thing that really struggles with when he can't do what he's so great at, which is getting outside the pocket and uses like as running.
For ten yards.
If you keep him contained, bottle him up, he'll struggle. And we know that's what Todd Bowles likes to do. I mean, I'm an ertzk I'm a huge hurts guy. Every time hers struggles against this Bulls defense. It's because he bottles over the five in the front. So I'm
¶ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS. HOUSTON TEXANS
with you, Chad. It's we'll see Sunday. Maybe I can, I'll get more info and maybe I guy talk this out of it. But as we say to it right now, I bet heavily into the bucks. I love the Bucks. I think it's a great number. And I think this Patriots team is just like last week, a little overvalued, and I think they're are valued here. There's probably should be three and a half. It's two and a half. Come on, we can't avoid this one.
It's too good Tampa Bay Box. They're going to be in the final five. It's going to be hard to keep them out.
That's oh my god. We'll see what I talked about this weekend. Because I'm like, if I have a really smart group being like day, this is a pay this is a Patriot spot. You guys got to avoid this one. Okay, maybe I can talk to it, but I'm so bet into it, so are you. I'm with you.
I just cannot I can't see it not being one of our five.
Simon.
You and I are the really smart group. That's the ballgame. You and I are the smart group. They should be worried about us. If they're betting the Patriots, they should be like, oh shit, Chad and Simon. There was Chad choice this week and Simon is bet into it. Like we got to rethink that's how it should go here.
But you know the issue, it's us, there's public, the pros, everybody, all of us are on Tampa. I've only heard a couple of really smart guys, and like you said, this number is hitting so much resistance at three.
I'm just making sure we're.
Not missing something here because it's interesting, like you said, this has not gone to three.
I thought this would for sure be three by Thursday.
Yeah, I'm actually a little shocked myself, all that, all that alphatak aside, I'm a little shocked myself. You know what, I'm not shocked about that we're talking about Arizona as a six and a half point underdog at Seattle, and that we are going to make the Arizona Cardinals as six and a half point underdogs.
Our brass balls better the week.
You know what it takes, It takes brass balls.
We got what we wanted.
Jacoby Brissett is starting and in what has to be the ballsiest. I feel like we're doing this in honor of Jonathan Gannon, because Jonathan Gannon, in three different press conferences over the past few days, has basically said they're benching Kyler Murray. At first, he said they were doing this because Jacoby Brissett was continuing to perform well and there was also issues with Kyler Murray in.
The health bucket.
And then he said, we're doing it because Jacoby Brissett is playing well and it's better for the offense to be able to plan with consistency over the course of the week. They have since put Kyler Murray on ir to quote be able to focus on his rehab, which leads to the question what has he been doing. He
¶ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
hasn't played in a month. Is he going to focus harder over the next four weeks? Like everything about this and this was really telling, The Arizona Republic wrote, for the first time in seven years, Kyler Murray is not the starting quarterback of the Arizona Cardinals. The under lying meaning there is that Jacoby Brissett is the number one QB and Kyler Murray has been benched. And you can read into it any way you want about him going
on IR. That could just be all right, We're going to take some of the pressure off of this conversation. But before he went on IR, the coach had basically said, Brissett is going to give us the best chance.
We're going with Brissett. That's interesting to me.
Now the question becomes are we stepping in it with the Cardinals.
Because is it?
Does it become too public to go with a dog that just came off a big win with a quarterback we know has been streaking after winning on Monday night.
Yeah, I have some good stats to go against that, and I will say that Kylier' stuff. I was taken back by it. I can't believe they went this route, but it makes sense because what we talked about how much better the team has looked so much better with Brisett running the offense, and the fact that if you do put him in the spot right, put him on IR maybe does save a little face and saves a little bit of trade value for you for trying to
get rid of him in the offseason. And I think anybody knows, even Arizona fans, they saw this week Kyler was practicing like he was running around out there. He was good enough to take reps as if he was going to play last week.
He clearly not didn't have some type of stepback unless we missed it right.
They know more than we do. It's the team inside the building. But yeah, this is pretty shocking turn of event. I saw Kyler Murray. I believe he's twenty eight years old. Still not too late.
Brother, Go back to MLB, Go get them, see if you can make a career out of it. It's crazy.
He's one of the greatest athletes ever to come out of high school and just shows how football it's so mental. And he never, to me ever got that aspect down. Was never right mentally all the time in the world. I mean, I will always remember that play against the Raiders. I think it was a two point conversion. He ran around the backfield for about twenty seconds and I think it was like a total of like eighty yards. He scrampled, yeah, yeah, and put it right back in the end for the
two pointers. So brutal, brutal, brual end to that saga. But for this game, let's just look at Okay, like Chad said, isn't this a bad spot.
It's a team that won outright, on the road as a dog on Monday night.
It's actually not terrible statistically, and the next game is an underdog. They're nine and seven straight up, ten and six against the spread since two thousand, it's not terrible. So like, okay, we got a little something there. Now, this one really jumped out to me. Seahawks and this Cardinals. I talked about divisional matchups. This is crazy chat and very bizarre. Again, it doesn't matter because I guess these two quarterbacks weren't even know all these teams when all
this one down. But since twenty twenty twenty two, Seahawks eight and oh straight up seven to one against the spread against this Cardinals team, they've just owned them in this division, which again we say the time that that does happen. But I was like, okay, let me find some good Cardinal stats, because that's the side we want to be on.
It's a lot of Seahawks love here.
Yeah, let's find some some bias here. Let's find a way to make a start.
Yeah yeah, well, just because it feels like this is a great number for the Cardinal team.
Because I let's let's fit.
Some Let's find some stats that fit our narrative and what we want to do.
Every week, they've been undervalued.
So they lost to Tennessee as a seven and a half point favorite with Kyler. The next week they were at the Colts, he was an eight and a half point dog. What they lose by four or five points in that game. The following week they are seven point doll to Green Bay at home. They lose that game by four points, and then we just saw with Dabas there were three and a half points. So to me,
the book keeps Undervaluabersett. That's why it's been hitting. So I was like, Okay, what kind of numbers do we have here for teams making a trip out to Seattle on a short week, which I think that favors the type of quarterback per set is a veteran quarterback that just seems like he's totally rhythm with this offense. This is pretty wild since twenty twenty one teams in this exact spot heading to Seattle on a short week there's
seven and one straight up and against the spread. So we've talked about the lost art of this Seattle home
¶ ARIZONA CARDINALS VS. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
field advantage, right like we all think back to the Legion of Doom, but these last couple of years has not been so. And then even this year, I've already gave up those stats. They lost to the forty Anders and week went at home, Okay, we threw that one out. Their defense gave up thirty eight points to thirty five points to Baker at home against Tampa, like it's just night and day. There's road splits are insane, how much
dominant their defenses and offenses on the road. So I just like this one on a cell point for the Seattle team. So me and Chad loves to plus six and a half people, I think this will keep moving as well.
Like I said the book, the publics they keep.
Undervaluing per set, so I can easily set in this get up to seven. Just like last week we talked, I like the Cardinals there plus two and a half. I said, if you're if you're a patient, this will get the three against Dallas, I got up to three and a half. Because again people just do not believe in Brussette. So look at the splits right now. Eighty percent of the money, eighty percent of the bets right now are on Seattle. So I just I think.
We'll get to seven. We're giving it out right now.
It's six and a half a hard rock I love this bet, I love this spot, and yeah, it's always a little scary ben again to arguably the best team, hottest team in football right now, which Seattle is. But we're just playing the market, playing the number, and we think this team is overvalued right now.
I would definitely say wait on the seven. I think it's gonna get there.
This one.
Unlike the other ones that we've talked about, this one feels like it's it's trending in that way. There doesn't seem to be much resistance from the bookmakers, and maybe they know they'll get it when it gets to seven. So I'm holding off. I haven't bet it yet. I love it. If I'm not gonna get the six and a half, if I'm not gonna get the seven, I'll bet the six and a half.
But I'm definitely waiting on the.
Second to get There's two sevens right now in Jersey, so there's gonna be sevens are gonna start popping eventually.
All right, so let's get that seven, all right? Quick quick quick word.
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Concerned about gambling in Florida called eight three three play wise in Indiana, a few or some of you know as a gambling problem and wants help. Call one eight hundred and nine with it. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. The Los Angeles Rams are bid are visiting the San Francisco forty nine ers.
The line right now is four.
On Sunday, it was three on Tuesday, it was three and a half. It's four at hard Rock, Honestly, it's four and a half almost everywhere else, like the book makers are telling us screw off, go ahead and bet the Niners.
We dare you.
What's interesting to me is I am seeing a much closer split on the betting percentages meaning the number of tickets between each side, than I am on the money, which is heavily in favor of the Rams. You know, you said in sharp calls, whise guys have come in on the Rams. My question is, was that all at three and people are ignoring it at four? Do people like the Niners at four and a half. What's our opportunity here? Because I got an opinion and it makes me scared.
Yeah, I was a little as it in here because we talked.
I took a position on the Rams minus three, and I said, once I got a three and a half, I want to been the.
Four nine ers.
And I was completely wrong, obviously missed it. Like you said, it's been met up now to four to four and a half. It is more of a mac Jones kind of thing where maybe the line reflects that party will be out another week. And this is kind of settling into what a mac Jones line is, which is four four and a half, which seems fair to me. And you know when you want to dive into this game, I think it's pretty simple. You just dive into head coaches, right,
because the quarterbacks keep changing, the pieces keep changing. But when you really get to the basis of it, it's two of the best offensive mines in all football going incase each other. And it does make a difference where you know which one is the underdog, and that tends to be the one I usually take my position on, So just dive in this matchup. I believe this is the eighteenth time these two guys have met up and matched in this type of game. Shanean obviously he's done
best in this matchup. He's eleven and seven against the spread his exact games. But what I thought it was so interesting was diving into what is mcveighman as a favorite, because that, to me, isn't that terrible eleven and seven.
I thought it was honestly more because it seems like Shanneon owns them so as a favorite with Stafford McVeigh three and six against the spread and straight up against Shanahan, and that's including this year where they lost outright at home as an eight point favorite against McVeigh on that Thursday night game, we talk all the time Thursday Night are weird games like stuff like that can just happen. But it's even more so worrying that this game is on the road now and McVeigh on the road against
Shannan as a favorite. He's one in three straight up and against the spread at this exact spot. So the numbers keep telling you you don't want to go with McVeigh here, and then you dive into even further when he's on the road straight up in his career against you know, Shanahan. This is the last eight times they've played this exact game. He's won in seven McVeigh. So you just struggled mightily against Shannan on the road in
these type of games. And you could say, well, that's kind of flicky because look at all the different quarterbacks through all the years. And that's my whole point though, it's the coaches stay the same, the schemes stay the same. So I I liked this a lot for this forty nine ers team, And the only hesitation I have is instead I gave out that I want to keep hammering home about this team. They cannot handle success, they can't
handle winning. I remember two weeks ago where I said you had to bet Houston against the forty nine and one of those stupid stats I gave up that's still held.
True since Christmas of twenty twenty three.
This is from our guy Evan forty nine ers one in fourteen against the spread after a straight up win, one in fourteen. So it's like this insane pattern. Even more so, they're oh and three straight up after a win when they're a dog in the next game. So they're oh and three against the spread and straight up as a dog in this exact spot since Christmas. And this is just a weird thing where whatever it is, this team doesn't handle the wins and they get over
valued by the books and they have a letdown. So that to me might be the reason these pros are coming on this Rams team. The trends point to it. It's like every time this fourgners team has a big win, especially on the road, they've come home they've laid total eggs. And that's happened a couple of times already this season. So I really do like the Niners here getting im probably talking myself off of it, but I'm not going
to force it in at four. I won't take it, but at four and a half, I'm taking forty nine ers there once. Once you get across that key number a four and a half, I have to take it, especially where all those trends show mc veigh's struggles on the road against Shanahan and this exact spot as a favorite. When people are under you, under betting or not believing the Niners team, they tend to shine in these exact games.
Listen to me, Listen, don't talk yourself out of it. The Niners are the right side here, last fourteen games in this rivalry, the favorite one to thirteen.
Against the spread. Wow, the Niners are the side.
We knew it on Tuesday. It's to me, the line is moving not because of the trendsit. It's moving because of the Niners defense. They're just so banged up and they're moving. It's moving because of the Rams rush defense, which has really become a lead. And if you're looking at this game schematically, the best opportunity that the Niners have is to get the ball into McCaffrey's hands thirty
five times, as they've been doing. But Matt Jones has been showing up and he's doing exactly what Kyle Shanahan needs.
Him to do.
The number is way too big. It just it shouldn't be four and a half points. And so that's the side simon. You and I we have confidence niners. Niners are the side no fear. I don't care what anyone else is saying. Here's one of them that I do have some concerns. This one is at two and a half. It's the Green Bay Packers hosting the Philadelphia Eagles. It's actually it was a two and a half, it's moved down a bit to two. You and I both talked
¶ LOS ANGELES RAMS VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
about it on Sunday at two and a half. You said you were hearing a lot of rumblings about the Eagles at two. I don't know if anyone's going to get to watch this game because it's a Monday night game, and who knows where the YouTube TV ESPN standoff is going to end.
But like shutdowns, could this be.
The moment when it's two massive fan bases that are, you know, bringing the cable giant and the streaming TV giant to its knees? Man Tricky, I don't think you mentioned the Eagles and sharp calls, but I'm still going to go with the Packers.
I am too.
I didn't mention it much because it is a little split, but I would say, obviously most pros are on Green Bay. But when I dove back into why my model had this so off, like I said, I think I had it at green Bay minus one. Maybe we're undervaluing Tucker Craft and what he means this Green Bay team and how big of a loss that is for this offense. But I can't get over how great of a spot
this is for the Packers. So maybe I'll have a stronger opinion comes today morning, I can give talk more about There's this other games I've bet more into.
I just don't know what to do with this one.
It's another game where it might be in the twenties, might be a little snowy on Monday night.
This could be affected by the weather.
And you know, if there's no Golden the Rooki receiver, and now there's no Tucker Craft, it's got to be an issue, right, Like a passing attack needs its weapons, especially the team like Green Bay with the it's just an unnamed receiving core. Right, it's a rotation of guys. Now you're taking away the number one tight end and the number two receiver. That's got to effect jord Love
at some aspects. So yeah, for me, I'm still betting at Green Bay, especially at minus two, but I don't feel as strongly as I did about it on Sunday night or let alone on Tuesday.
I don't feel as strongly about it either.
I think there's been a lot of movement this week that has made me feel better about games like the nine Ers. I'm still bought into the box, the Cardinals, the Jets are really interesting to me. I know we like the Broncos too, so I do think we're starting to find consensus on a bunch of games.
I don't know how you've missed Miami.
On Tuesday, we talked about liking Miami and it being the side.
Yeah it that's how you should know. It's the right that's the right bet for us and probably should.
Be one of our five comes Sunday. All right, let me let me hit you some numbers.
Talk me into it. Hold on here, but talk me into it.
Give me the numbers, but then tell me your hypothesis for the game.
I just love this running matchup. I think against his Bill's defense favors it's Miami team a lot of ways.
And it's also a unique spot.
Whether it's Tua at home with a big number, who always covers for us in this exact spot, except.
Against the Ravens Thursday night, like a weekd that.
Was different though that wasn't a midday in the sun type of game. That was a primetime late game. Look, we got burned by that one, no doubt. I'm trying not to.
Let that affect us in this game. Here, I'll hit you with the numbers real quick.
All right, hit me with the numbers, Josh.
All, let's start with him, the Goat.
We all know how great he is, but on the road is more than a touchdown favorite.
I think we could both agree.
It feels like he's not that great, And when you dive into the numbers, it proves out he's two and six against the Spring in his career on the road as a seven a half point favorite or more.
Okay, not the biggest deal. All right, Well, let's dive into some more.
Dolphins got blown out last week, right, they were a dog of seven points or more. They lost by twenty points or more last week in this exact spot. Those type of teams and a bounce back spot fifteen and seven against the spread. So look, we already knew it's gonna be a by low on this Dolphins team because they just got embarrassed and blown out.
But every week, every week is by low on the Dolphins.
Now, I mean we high last week after they blew out Atlanta. That was again that was on us. We should that we misread that one two of this week, he just got embarrassed. This is his back to back, So his second home stand game, which you know we always talk we love to at home or indoors in controlled environments, to a at home in this exact spot, So his second straight home game in his career. He's ten and two straight up, nine and three against the spread.
Oh but Chad, what's you like as an underdog in this exact spot?
Oh, Tony Simon three and oh.
Straight up and against the spread, and this exact spot to at home and the back to back game as an underdog. So I kept diving into it, and it's like, is there more stats I can pull from the good chat to try to flip on this one? I got another one for you to at home twenty six and eleven straight up, and when they lose and they have a following game again at home. He is three and oh straight up and against the spread, covering those games
by fifteen points per game. That's and insanes that he basically if he gets embarrassed or lose at home, he's dominating that second.
Game at home.
And we talked, we just we've been profitable betting to it at home in that hot sun whatever it is, all the new shoe and the naonce it's true, like teams get burned out, they wear on. Tool always comes back and covers these big spreads in the second half at him. So I just wanted to bring that game up as a game you're going to need to take
a little closer look at I'm betting into it. I don't feel great about slamming the table about Tua and this Miami team, but this is a great matchup for their offense, and I think defensively as great as Josh Allen is and that offense is Cook is banged up. He's been on the injury report this week and he's not been practicing. I think I'll be interesting if their number one running back is Ray Davis. Even though Miami
doesn't have a good front, that's a huge deal. Cook is like a top five, top ten running back of football right now. So that's another reason I think this numbers dropped a little bit. Like again, there's no public or professional level. I've honestly found this Miami team. It's just us, buddy, and that makes me love it even more. Everyone's left them for dead. And this the exact spot we got to be buying this Miami Dolphins team. I know we need to get out of here. I'll be
quick on the next one Detroit. The pros are all over this Washingt team. This number has been bet down now to seven and a half.
I get it.
I'm missing something. This might be a huge blind spot
¶ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS. GREEN BAY PACKERS
once again. But I have to trust Campbell, just like I did last week, Campbell and Golf on these spots.
I'm so freaking proudy man. That's a way to show up. You talk about pressure.
We living pressure.
That's what we freaking thrive.
You did it again. You always find a way to win. We're testing for this.
Just stay the course.
I've been betting it for so long, We've been making money off for so long.
What do we do here?
We're trying to go against our instinct here, and I know it's the very public side. It's probably the most public side of the week. So maybe that's how we all avoid it. It's so public, maybe we can tuck ourselves out of it. But Golf and Campbell after a straight up loss twenty one to eight against the spread, like it's just what they do. They are on a twelve game covering streak after losing the previous game right now, So every time they've lost, they've come back and covered
the flying game for twelve straight times. So I just wanted to bringing them up real quick. I know that I'm gonna get a ton of shit from a lot of pros this upcoming week at the book. You know, I'm on this public side once again because again they're taking a victory lap in the Vikings. They were totally right, tertoughly terrible read by me.
I do worry They've got a lot of developing injuries in their offense, specifically in the offensive line that is impacting their ability to block and.
Their rush game. And I talked about this on Tuesday. I love Detroit.
Last week too, they were Chad's choice as a big number against the Vikings because I had no faith in JJ McCarthy and I had all the faith in the Detroit Lions ability to run the ball against Minnesota Vikings rush defense that hasn't been playing well this year. The problem is, and I noted this on Tuesday, what we saw on Sunday was a lack of success rate that allows them to get to a position on third down
where they can execute. You could say that they will do better against the Commanders in this spot because their defense is just terrible. But the line's also been having offensive line issues and some injuries on that offensive line. So I think that has as much do with sort of this line moving from what was it eight and a half to eight down to seven and a half as it does with fading the Lions overall because of what happened last week.
Yeah, the biggest thing winning back Detrait this year. It's very simple when you dive into numbers. They are at twenty fifth and third down conversion rate and their eighteenth and first downs but can't convert.
They can't, but this is the definition.
But get right where they're playing a defense at in red zone efficency, they're twenty seventh in the league. They are giving up their thirtieth in yards per play defensively, they are their twenty ninth and giving up the most passing yards in the league, and they're twenty third against the rush. So this is it for Detroit. They can't get right here. Like I said, maybe you're right, maybe I'll swear them off for good.
And as honest as I can, I don't know.
I really don't even know how to respond to that, you know, I mean, I'm shocked by.
That Steelers visiting their Chargers.
The game was three and a half on Sunday, it's moved down to three. We liked it a lot at three and a half. You said you're hearing stuff from the wise guys on the Chargers, which is surprising to me because Joe Alt is out and it's a game in LA where the Steelers travel, and it's going to feel like you're, you know.
Back at the old three Rivers. When you're playing you not.
Get it, especially when it's the plus three. I just do not get this Chargers love.
So it's another game I'm trying to be careful on because it does feel way too easy, like we're getting a dog here against a team that should not be favored against this defensive front, and you know, one takeaway could be this defense played over seventy snaps against that cold Steam last week, and that's not a pushover Colts team. That's a big, physical, really tough Colts team that that could affect this Pittsburgh defense in But it's already been a year of very up and down play, right.
We joked about it.
They need five turnovers per game to steal these type of games. So that's the weird here. But the one that really jumped out to me about a couple of people send me this stat about just Herbert and how great he's been in these night games, which was pretty shocking, just because it feels like before Harwall got there, they were just so terrible, this Chargers team, and they just did have no coaching. But he's actually in a five
game ATS streak winning night games. I think the only one I could pop in my head was that Chiefs game to start the year. I know that was a night game for a fact, when they played down in Brazil. In his career, Herbert sixteen and nine against the spread, covering by three and a half points per game. And this is exact night games type of game. So there's a lot to like them here. As a favorite. He's ten and three straight up in these type of games. I just wanted to bring it up just because we're
just we're so in love with the Steelers. I want to talk about the other side, why people might like the Chargers and Herbert to bounce back.
But I'm with Chad.
I just can't get to the fact that losing Joe Alt this this offensive front, him having no time. They can't set up a run game either, because they can't run block either. It's just it just feels so negative for the Chargers team. On the flip side, I just love Pittsburgh, So maybe again I can avoid it because I'm lying to myself saying, well, Pittsburgh's defense seventy snaps now, short week on the road. That's a tough spot to put this defense is. But just man, what am I
grabbing here with this Chargers team. Other than Herbert, It just feels like a lost bet.
Here's what if I had to predict how we're narrowing it down on Sunday. I think we're talking about San Francisco. I think we're talking about Arizona. I think we're talking about Houston. I think we will have talked about Denver. I think the Jets will be in the conversation. I know Miami is going to be in the conversation because I already could lean that way and you're feeling heavily,
¶ BUFFALO BILLS VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS
you're feeling strongly about it. So and maybe green Bay, well we'll have to have a conversation. I don't think Detroit's gonna make it I don't know if the Steelers will make it either. Maybe that's a mistake and we'll
talk it out on Sunday. But those feel like the games to me again, Denver, which we both love Tonight Thursday night, the Jets plus two and a half, the Cardinals plus six and a half, which is our brass balls, the Niners plus four and a half, Miami plus nine and a half feel like the leading contender.
Simon, give me your biggest bets.
Pull up those pants and be a man. Obviously, people know love Denver. Tonight.
I'm gonna have a lot of money tied to them Dolphins, but pretty big into bucks, but pretty big into and you know a lot of these gamers waiting positions like forty nine ers probably going to pen as a bigger bet seeing with the Cardinals just waiting to get better numbers on those games.
Last week underdog parlay and Favorites parlay. We are leaning into favorites so much more. We ended up having to do both sides of games, which we don't love doing. So Mitchell suggestion, I think your suggestion, and we'll three. Let's do three for the underdog parlay.
My dog blocks your dog, Your dog.
Blocks mo Dog. Jets plus one ten.
I was just going to say, Jets have to be in there. Texans le see, yeah, I like that.
Niners I like that all right.
Underdog money line parlay Round Robin Jets, Houston, Niners. Favorites Panthers Panthers, Lions.
Panthers, Lions, Ravens.
Ravens for sure. We're all in on the bucks either way.
Yeah, that's true, that's true. Bears are yeah. Ten.
Let's do the Bears, Bears, Let's do the Bears.
Yeah.
I'd already forgotten about the.
Bears survivor before we get out of here. Tough, tough week.
I unfortunately to use the lines, God, I can't believe I'm doing it. Panthers, Wow, I know, my God, I gotta do it though. It's it's that kind of it's it's that year where you guys start getting into.
The other teams that win each week. So I'm gonna go Panthers.
All right, Sharp versus Square? We both lost last week? Would you like to go first? You you had the Chargers last week I had the Jacks.
Oh, I guess I'll flip the last week.
I went with a minus nine and a half road favorite. Give me Miami plus nine and a half home dog. Wow.
Yeah, I love that. That makes me feel even more confident about putting in the contest, though, I will tell you.
That that's scary.
I'll go to San Francisco.
Here you go. What number? Are you taking four and a half for.
Four and a half and you're taking Miami plus nine and a half?
Let's go right?
Yeah, all right, all right. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network.
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