FINAL NFL WEEK 14 BETS - Bengals-Bills, Texans-Chiefs, Colts-Jaguars, Steelers-Ravens, Saints-Bucs and more

Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by a hard rock bat. We are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Moleman. I am joined as always by my co host. My companion might Beff, my compadre professional better signon hunter head o S.

I mean, Chad, let's get into it. How is your knight brother?

Dude, look at this. It's so weird. It's so weird to root for school that in football is literally the second losing his program in NFL history. To love the school, to love the fight song so much, and to see

Yeah, I wish I could take credit for it, but yeah, that's just following very smart people.

It's smart money. But yeah, it's it's.

What draw us people into college football. I know, it's a sport that gets a lot of hate because it's so top heavy, and you know, you give teams hard times because it's like, you know, if you're a diehard Arkansas fan, what is that life.

You're never going to be relevant. But this is the exact scenaria why you never give up.

Right, if you get the right coach with the right kind of NL money, we should start with the.

Top of that. Yeah, yeah, yeah, And the coach is.

The most important part anythings possible in college football. Right if you can strike getting the coach before they leave for the big time school, you can do it.

You might become a big time school.

He signed now for a long time, so yeah, I just I can't get over the turnaround. If he's doing this with you know, three four start two star recruits, a couple five star.

Now we're gonna start rolling in. It's bizarre.

Whatever college basketball school like Duke is now a team winning their conferences in football, it's Duke Indiana.

It's a bizarre time right now in the college football space. I love it.

Freaking bizarre world nil money transfer portal. Go hire an old coach who's proven in it, he can win the money, does the recruiting for you. There's a blueprint here that's really really fascinating, But it's not what we're talking about today, Simon, because this is the semi strip down in the room eavesdropping version of Sharp or Square. You and I are going to make our final five picks and the good news Now, this is the first Sunday with our brand

Yeah, buddy?

Right here we go. Games reserved in on the other day, Indy at Jacksonville. Look, I think we both come around.

Yeah, on the Jags.

But it's definitely a type of game where you know you don't want to make a huge position on it because of what Shad just talked about. You're factoring an unknown factor into a game where we've seen it time and time again. It's not a strength at all for Trevor Lawrence to play in bad weather.

I mean, just off the top of my head.

The one that really pops up because I'm an Eagles fan, is that game where the Jaguars and Eagles. Jaguars dominating the game, beating the Eagles, and I think he had four fumbles he might have lost three of them against the Eagles. And the Eagles came back and won that game the second half. So I don't love it for our Trevor Lawrence belief in bet here.

But the truth still holds true, which is.

I think this is a Jaguars sem is going to give real problems Daniel Jones. That offense on the cold side, on the offensive side, I still think they'll be I'll take advantage of this cold secondary.

So, like Jed said, it's if it's gonna be one of our five.

We kind of wanted it to be perfect scenario with this Jaguars team because we both have such reservations about backing Trevor Lawrence. So this kind of gives us the out here if we do not want to put this in one of our five, just because it makes me lead confidence knowing that it's going to be a really bad weather down there.

All right, well, we don't have to do it. We don't have to do it Tennessee A Cleveland another game we don't have to do. Cleveland is a three and a half point favorite. We both bet Cleveland here. You had the line of the Week on Thursday where you're

Yeah.

I've dug in all week about how I just love this Browns team because it's really a bet to me on their defense. And shockingly, there are some four and a halfs popping up there. So, like Chad said, there is not just professional money. Obviously, public money is coming in here on this Browns team. And I think it's because people are seeing the weather report this morning, which is cold, freezing side where snow and rain and just bad wins right now what they're predicting for Cleveland. So

Own special teams last week.

This Browns team, right I think if you go back and watch it, Chaggia about the stat every drive felt like it started their own side, their own fifty for the forty nine ers, right, the foreign arows kept being to eat on the Browns forty, the Browns thirty. You know, coaches going from the Browns doing thirty and gave the

This is this big number, is this defense.

This is purely a defensive number, and it's all about what we were confident, right.

We literally dove into this exact position.

I don't know, it feels like ten years ago, but it was probably four or five weeks ago on Miami versus Brown's team in this exact spot. Yeah, Gabriel right with Gabriel, which is no different than Sanders. My model Lily has a difference of half a point between these

We have no rhythm when it comes to the Tennessee Titans zero. We we cannot catch the falling knife on this team, but we have a lot of rhythm with the Browns. Yeah, and so I've I'm still on it. I've bet into it. I'm not walking away from it.

Yeah, and unfortunately, this is the one of the games that won't be affected by the colder bad whether I think it's going to get up above forty here in Jersey by kickoff, sunny skies, no rain, no snow, none of that, which is something I honestly was hoping for in this matchup. I thought I was gonna play into our favorites, especially you know, earlier in the week we were talking it was supposed to be in the twenties low thirties in this matchup, which you know, we all

It's it's a.

Pros pros game. It's truly all the it's just pro money on the Jets. All the other money is all public money on this Miami team, and for a good reason, right Miami, they have as.

Much crap as we like giving them.

We thought they were deader than dead, right, They kind of given up on the season, and they've totally not turn it around, but they've at least showed up for their head coach here down the stretch right after they fired their general manager.

I think they've won three of their last four.

So it's a unique spot here for this Miami team that you know, I think the public is starting to finally believe in them. Where we talked about this Jets game, we were never gonna be able to avoid it.

We liked the number. This probably should be closer to a pick.

It's totally overaction to the public to me on this Miami side and on the flip side, Taylor, we've been on this the stats, Tyrod Taylor last eight starts seven to zero to one against the spread. It's just continually undervalued against the public, and we've been backing them along this whole stretch. So nothing's changed here, right. We like the number, like you said, perfect world. Just like last week, we would have loved to gotten this two at three

We will not be scared off because we think the Jets are going to win this game outright, New Orleans at Tampa Bay. The line is currently eight and a half. The Saints are eight and a half point underdog. Simon, this is going to be our rock and a hard place, hard rock bet of the week.

I want a rock.

You talked about the Saints a bunch on Thursday. It took me a minute to come around. I am on the Saints now. I bet the Saints at plus eight and a half. I bet the Saints on the money line. Oh god, yeah, just for fun, just a little taste, not like listen, not like you know college tuition money,

Yeah, and I love it too, because it's back in this Saints team, We're either going to be in a really close, back to the word type of game where they do have an opportunity.

Or it's dead in the first quarter exactly.

We will either or will be down thirty to nothing in the first half and just getting totally blown out.

So these are the gross ugly dogs. I like. Betting gave out that stat on Tuesday.

Again, we didn't really talk much Thursday because I think, like you said, it wasn't much on your radar, but I did wildly love it. I look at this one where it's it's really the best based off just kind of like that Jets game where the public continues to undervalue the Saints team. And we've gone back now last couple of years. You know, this Saints team divisually on the road as an underdog or eight to zero against

So you said it best.

The last time they played, they got blown out, I think three to twenty three something like that. Yeah, but it was.

Not a twenty three to three game. That was a The score was twenty three to three. The circumstances that led to it being twenty twenty three to three were not dominance by the box. It was flukey plays a lot of luck. They were only winning seven to three at half, and that was because of a pick six. Like nobody was playing well in that game.

I would say total melt down by the Saints if you go back and watch it. But we do give some grace.

That was when we think Bett Baker had an injury he didn't disclose and he was fighting through it, and they had a bunch of injuries obviously to the offense.

No God would know my the snow Buck Irving.

So yeah, this matchup for me, it's really just back in about the public just moving this number too much and overrating this Bucks team that yes, they're going to be better now they have a lot of other guys back, but that defense. There ain't no guy coming off the bench that's going to save this defense for this Bucks team.

Good yeashing the ball downfield consistently.

So yeah, we both love this number, and really it's about the line plus eight and a half at every book. I can't avoid it another game. I just love on this dog and I'm glad we at least have one road team. We're here backing.

Warren Sap is not walking through that door.

No.

I put Houston plus three and a half at Kansas City on this list. Wow, This number was four and a half at a book on Saturday afternoon. I don't know if you saw that. I grab Houston at four and a half. It's now back down to three and a half at most places. I just wanted to throw

Yeah, but again, it's so different than Dallas Lions game shot, and it's something where we joke about it. But if the line just seems off and there's something fishy and it's it's what week fourteen here, you gotta trust your instincts here, So I get what you're taking a position on Houston.

Everything you said is true.

I just I want people to be wary of this game because what Chad just said, why is this not keep? It was moving to three like I got a bunch of threes in the Chiefs. It was moving in the three two and a half direction. Now they're left and right tackle might be out, and it's going up the four four and a half, So be careful.

I'm on the Chiefs. I guess we're just split here.

Like you said, everything is very logically you said in Houston they have the best unit on the field. Obviously in this defense, they're just incredible. This this actually is a pretty good matchup with them. But I think on the flip side, this is the exact type of game Stags.

Gets right against this Houston offense.

So to me, it's me be the type of game that you know is gonna be one in the red zone, and I think Chiefs Mahomes they take advantage of this Houston team in the red zone. On the flip side, I think Houston continues to struggle in the red zone so I get Chad's perspective, your people, but just be careful. They're something very fishy about this number in the way it's moving where I'm on the Chiefs, but very very leaky confident. You can hear my voice. I just yeah,

I'm only on the Texas at four and a half. I'm kind of agnostic or ambivalent about it at three and a.

Half and half im the Chief.

Honestly, it's not scared me, but it's like, again, I just to be one of our five. It's like, man, I really wish you came in super confident, the Chief, so I can have backed you up here, But it sucks for split, so I guess we'll just avoid it.

Well, look, I think we have three games we're agreed on so far, Cleveland, the Jets, and the Saints. Boy, that's a magnificent trio. That's like the Indiana University football team of the nineteen seventies trio right there.

So now we got to make it so what's Alanta in this contest?

Atlanta is hold on and a half. Now I think Atlanta six and a half. So this is where it gets tricky, right because Atlanta, which we which I liked a lot.

That's a very very sharp, a lot of sharps. I know, like, yes, I do not see it.

Drake. I I backed out of it because Drake London is not playing and I'm not going to buy into Drake London. Buffalo and Cincinnati Cincinnati six and a half, that's interesting to miss.

You want that six and a half.

I like Cincinnati and six and a half, all right, But but the other games that we've liked all week, Baltimore we've liked all week. It's up to six and a half in the contest.

Yeah, I wouldn't let that.

I mean again, very smart professionals have taken the six the six and a half on Pittsburgh.

So that could be my little bit hesentation. And I don't know if you saw them more.

Apparently got stepped on in practice and he missed the day and he did come back I.

Believe on Thursday or Friday. He did practice. But it's not again.

I wish I could be more confident in betting this Ravens team, but the historical data just shows like Pittsburgh as a doll here, you're supposed to blindly bet it, but I just I can't get there.

It just sucks. It's a bad number, like five and a half.

I'd honestly make us put this Ravens game at six.

And a half.

If we can't find anything else, I'll put it in. But it's it's obviously not that good of a number.

The Jags, by the way, in the contest are two and a half, so that to me changes the calculus a little bit.

Drags are two and a half.

In the contest.

That's crazy because hard Rock is one and a half here. But yeah, I mean I could get into it this weather, though it does. I'm trying to keep perspective. It's like we're betting Trevor in the rain. But that's a great number.

The other game that I want to bring up, I know we're bouncing around here, but we're looking at contest. The Las Vegas Raiders are now eight and a half against you. Okay, good, I'm glad. I listen. You mentioned the Raiders the other day. I don't want to do it but I wanted to.

Respect to number what I told you I got. I got more invested in Denver's money line, So I just I don't want to.

Be sweating that. All right, Well we got already used

We got some tough choices to make then. So like yeah, like.

Again, I don't know if you're gonna like these games, like we're supposed to be betting green Bay, Like you know, we're supposed to be betting green Bay. But it's a hard spot because it's like green Bay has not covered this number at all all season. Bears have lived up like expectations. I mean, they've gone far and above what we all predicted. They've been covering machine. I just don't

You know I bet the Bears on the money line.

Listen, I told you I made that bet that Chad bet that the Bears money line with in the inner who'siers money line?

But my god, this number is it's the fishiest line of the week.

Simon. Do you see this? Do you see this? You see this? Do you know what's underneath it? By the way, do you know what's underneath it? Hold on shirt all right?

Showing me his nipples. People.

So I got the Bears T shirt and the Indiana hoodie. I root for I root for champions, but I don't want to put put him in the contest.

What's our favorite? Though? We need to get a favorite in here. Check because we last week, I know, I know we got smoked.

Listen. We loved the well we have Cleveland and don't forget three and a half. Look, look, I'll say something crazy here.

I say it.

Okay, we love the Rams at seven and a half, and we bet it at seven and a half. It's at nine and a half because there's a bunch of injuries for the Cardinals. Why not the Rams nine and a half right now? Terrible number, But I think if they win, this's going to be a blowout.

All right, I can be talking into it. I'm heavily investing in the Rams.

I'll do that, all right.

So we'll take a sec message here from hard reck Bet. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, hard rock Bet. The holidays are here, and the sports schedule is packed tighter than Santa's gift bag week. Fifteen Football Bowl games, NBA college hoops, hockey. The whole sports sleigh is loaded, and on hard rock Bet, there's always

I love it.

I know you do. I know when I know when you watch your favorite English Premier League team you only speak with an English accent. The pre eminent international soccer tournament will be hosted right here in America this summer. At the draw for that tournament, as I said, took place on Friday. It drew more viewers worldwide than the Super Bowl. Seriously, I don't know nearly as much as you do on the subject. But I do know a couple of things. The tournament has expanded, so nearly fifty

I hope maybe I can persuade you to get into it because it's in the summer. This is like the prime time through betting, these exact type of spots, like it's right around NHL NBA playoffs, and this is the tournament right this is all the different countries and sad I just talked about the viewership is insane for these

So from the.

Top, the very basic this is have you been there before to the party?

Right?

And just like if you want a Super Bowl football, it's easier for some reason to win another super Bowl, it's the same in this tournament. If you've done it before, it's easier to do and if you haven't, it's basically impossible. You're just if you're not nobody of the party're never going to do it. So it's very top heavy people.

Right now, when I look at this, there's one group of death.

Unfortunately, my favorite team is in that group of death, and that is Norway. Norway, which is a team that if you don't know they have a guy named Holland he's the greatest striker in the world. Basically, he's the homes of the sport, basically al Ja and Get. He's just the best at what he does at a certain position.

It's just such a big deal of these guys. So unfortunately they're in the Group of death, which is Group I. They have France.

It's France, Norway and then Senegal, which if you know anything about Senegal, it's an African country that is filthy, filthy at soccer. They are pure Dallas cowboys, tons and tons of offense, no defense, and they're really fun.

We're in that group. France right now is minus one eighty.

You can get Norway plus two eighty at hard Rock plus two sixty if you want to bet that, and them to win it all, which overall the whole you know, cup I think they're plus three thousand.

A lot of books.

It's moved now to twenty five to one, so it's Norway's come down a little bit people have been hitting it even though they're in the group of death. If you are very lazy American better we've done it, people. We are in the exact group you want to bet a For the first time in my lifetime, this might be our best opportunity in the next two hundred years to win this.

Twenty just because at home for us, and.

They basically laid it out where we're not going to face any good teams for the first month. They've really put us on a nice spot here for the first couple of weeks. And basically the USA is in Group D. We are plus one twenty right now at hard Rock I talk to a proably makes this minus two hundred in this group. That's how bad. Again, I'm not trying to pick on USA. That's just how easy our group is,

Those are just not that good at teams.

And then fishing out the bottom of the group is Australy. I think they're eight to one to win this group. So to me, if you're looking for a very home er bet, I don't hate it. If you want to bet the USA to win the World Cup, there is a path. I can squim my eyes and see it. Just because it's a new year, there's forty eight teams in this new tournament the way they've let it out and these a lot of these countries have not dealt with America humidity. So I can see the opportunity for America.

Listen, United States could be the Indiana of global soccer this year. And reminder, hard Rock Bet is your betting home for all of this summer's global soccer action. Reminder, our picks are in Chad and Simon BFFs. We're at Jacksonville plus two and a half. That's the number in the contest, where a Cleveland minus three and a half New York Jets plus two and a half, New Orleans Saints plus eight and a half, and Los Angeles Rams minus nine and a half on the road against the