¶ Intro / Opening
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the show that makes the square sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention.
I am Chadmlman.
I am joined as always by my bff, my companion, Mike ca Padre, my co host professional better sign Man Hunter.
Hello, So I am in Chad. How are we doing?
My brother?
I am rocking the Indiana University hoodie today because man, my alma mater did all.
Of us proud.
We had our first ever Indiana football Gus Johnson moment. It was brilliant, it was ecstatic, it was glorious. I cannot believe it actually happened. Heisman Doza menia is real. This is what it's like to be a college football fan, my friend to have graduated from a college football school.
It was a credible game. I had Penn State.
Didn't want to text you beforehand and letting you know, hey, this might be a trap spot for your team. I was glad I didn't because I had halftime. You guys were up ten and lamentum felt like it was going your way. But it's it's always funny. Watching these games is it Gus Johnson, the guy's name.
That calls the games.
Yeah, that's yeah.
He cracks me up because he is this.
I mean, everyone knows he's the He goes insane and goes crazy. He also does these like non sequitors that are just hilarious to me. He'd be like, this guy was homeless eating trash just nine months ago. He is now has an interception in this game. What an amazing story. What a brow parent his parents must be.
And it's like huge, and then it's third and two.
And it's like the most insane thing.
I watched the clips of Gus Johnson again and again and again and again because he literally lost his breath. It was it was so wonderful as an Indiana football and you didn't need to tell me it was a trap game. My Indiana text chain. The last comment from like a group of thirteen people from one of my buddies who went to IU with me, it was like, I'm not liking the metrics here. I don't like the
way this looks. And I didn't want to say to him it's gonna be okay, And then I'm glad I didn't because it got ugly there for a second.
But then you know, we hoosiered. That's what we do.
Who's the great game? Are you?
This is the strip down in the room.
He's dropping version of Sharper Square. We're going to make some final picks. We're gonna make our final five. Now that some injuries have been reported, lines have moved, you know, quickly. We debated the Broncos heavily. Fortunately we did not put them in. I thought we were going to go there. You thought we were going to go there. We had a quick conversation. We decided it was not the way to go. So we got a full slate of five.
We got to pick. Are you ready, my brother?
Yes, sir?
All right? So Minnesota Baltimore.
We've been talking about this one back and forth, back and forth on the show, and felt like the number
¶ START
was getting too high. And now it's come back down to three and a half, and it's three and a half everywhere we'd want to play it. That's super hard not to be tempted by Baltimore up minus three and a half. And even though I know the wise guys are chirping about Minnesota and it's kind of moved in Minnesota's way.
The last twenty four hours.
Yeah, this will be our biggest public bet of the week, no doubt. Both love the Ravens. Can't believe it's come back down to or it is. Maybe we're missing something here right with this Ravens defense and their problems aren't fixed and this is gonna be a good match for KOC. But I just you're betting on it feels like you're betting on lightning to strike twice if you're back in JJ mccarth and this Vikings team after last week in lines and we see.
These things happen in football a time, right.
These professionals lock on the teams that go on these little runs and they get in these little streaks, and I think that's what they're looking for here. With JJ joining back this Vikings team and maybe getting a little role here, we're I think we're in sick. On the flip side, it just feels like this is a great spot for this Ravens team. The line doesn't make sense. We're getting great value on it at four and a half. I think we both were avoiding this one, but not
minus three and a half. It's just too good to pass on that opportunity.
Lamar against the Blints against the Blint against the Blints, it's not Sunday morning at the Delhi. Lamar against the Blitz has been brilliant the past couple of years, best than football, and in his limited time this year, absolutely beyond brilliant. So I like the matchup, all.
The matchups, like even diving into it, like all the numbers. It's great run. I just like the floor is the name the defensive game. Floors is gonna need here, and the coaching the caseesn need. Offensively, they're gonna need to be perfect. That's what we're fading them being perfect here where it's it's gonna be the most public side we're gonna be on this week, no doubt.
Great Baltimore minus three and a half that is in New England at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay, Dude, this was chat choice. I cannot believe it's still sitting at two and a half.
It frustrates me to know.
And the more I think about this game, the more I feel like the Bucks are the side here.
I know you're with me, Yeah, I'm with you. Tons of pushback this week about this line for us. The pros are obviously on the other side. They love the Patriots. They of them catching points here. They actually view these two teams as equals, which is shocking to me. I just have such a higher grade on this book. So yeah, we could be missing it here. Maybe what their view
is that the Bucks will come out slow. This is a bad spot for them coming out of the bye week against a new one team that's just been a well aweayed machine these last couple of weeks. Ready, when they play bad, they're still squeaking out wins. So I guess the pro see, Hey.
Really good competitive Raabel team here catching two and a half points. We should we should take it. But we're aligned.
It's like this Bucks team, the veterans they are, They're
¶ BALTIMORE RAVENS VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS
easily gonna make this a one sided game. They're gonna make Drake may beat them. Right, we already know vidave taken away that rung game. It's going to be the number one priority here. So our biggest question is do we get Baker after you know, two three weeks, did he get his body right?
And that's what we were betting into the unknown year.
That's probably the only fear for me is we just don't know the full health of Baker, and we know he was banged up heading into this he just did not look right two games heading into the Spy a week so under a field goal.
Like you said, it's it's it's too tempting not to pass this one.
So yeah, two favorites for us this week, Ravens Bucks love them both well.
Look also, Remandre Stevenson is out, Kayshawn Booty is out, and Booty's been Drake May's down the field security blanket even more than Stefan Diggs for this Patriots offense going deep, deep down field.
So we'll see how much of.
An impact that has on the game and the Patriots as well. All Right, our brass balls bet of the week press by hard Rock Bett was the Arizona Cardinals at plus six and.
A half at Seattle. We're still in it. We're still in this game.
There are actually sevens, even some seven and a half's out there on Arizona. I would recommend you take those. We're both going to be on Arizona here. We like the Cardinals plus six and a half in this spot at Seattle.
And like we keep saying, sharpest book, hard rock only book right now with the minus six and or plus six and a half for the Cardinals in Jersey.
Every other book is seven.
Like Chad said, there's one book out there still seven and a half, but they're going out of business, so they're trying to get as much money as they can at this point.
It's interesting though.
Like we've talked about, I thought this would be seven to seven and a half once it was. Jacoby Wes said, just because it's a love affair with the Seahawks team. This whole week, it's just been joke the Chad there. People are loving the DBA score of the Sea Ox team. They're the highest rated team in like ten years, one
¶ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
years in the top five. It's it's just all love for this team and people are gonna see a theme here. We think this division NFC West, all these divisional games will be close. It just feels like it's gonna be the pattern for the season. And we're banking out of here. We're taking a dog here in a matchup that you know defensively, this is actually this great matchup scheme wise
for the Seayawks team. So I'm really exciting to see you if your covery per second keep doing what he's been doing, which is really attacking the middle of the field. That's the Seahawks' biggest weakness. They don't have many defensively. That is a weakness for them. In their secondary, you can attack the middle of the field. So we're set. Come on, buddy, don't fail us here, big big bet on him this week at six and a half.
There is one fear is that the Cardinals secondary is still pretty depleted. They're missing a couple of key players, and that's a real opportunity for Sam Darnolds, who's just been lighting teams up and taking advantage of weaknesses defensively. But the flip side is the defensive line for the Cardinals has been getting much much better and they have been a physical team that has been keeping games close
all year long. So that's another reason why there we're on the Cardinals side is they are not the kind of team that so far this year has let games get away from them, especially with Jacoby Brissett playing quarterback now and sort of entrenched as the starter on that team. All right, Los Angeles rams at the San Francisco forty nine Ers.
The Niners are now six point underdogs at hard Rock that the San.
Francisco forty nine ers are going to be our rock in a Hard Place, Hard Rock, Better the Week a lot. I've been informed by our producer Matt Mitchell that our hard rock Rock and a Hard Place Better the Week has won six straight this game, Simon, it's going from
¶ ARIZONA CARDINALS VS. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
three and a half to four, to four and a half to five, to five and a half to six. We're betting on the team that the line is going away from where we would like it to be, going to show how good we think this number is. Because six scares me the fact that so much money is coming in on the RAMS.
Yeah, because it is about looking at the matchups right when you're really breaking it down for this RAMS team. Defensively, you expect them to be able to get after Mac Jones. This should be a really good matchup for their front. They're really good against the run, which that's another thing. If they can take that away, that's a huge deal. And offensively, Stafford's playing at MVP level. So I get why professionals in the public are coming in on this
RAMS team. I mean, we talked earlier in the week. I couldn't believe where it opened at three, but I said at three and a half, that's when you start making a four nine ers line and feels true right now. I don't know if you saw the news mac Jones was named the start of this weekend, brock Purty was questionable. Yeah, you want to eat some crow chat or no, you were so sure of yourself and just ripping me for my mac Jones take, which again isn't my take I
was getting from other people. I don't want to believe in mac Jones, but my god, I couldn't want to see as I saw that.
Oh my god, don't text chat. Save it for those shows.
It's so funny.
It's so funny you say that, because I did see the news, and by the way, then the number moved off of the mac Jones announcement. I couldn't find any other reason for the number to move like it moved literally that second's fair, And I was surprised by it because I thought this was already a mac Jones line like to me. I saw the news and I thought of you, and I was like, but this isn't really news to me, like I expected mac Jones to be starting. I think they've said this injury with perty has been
lingering to me. I'm still seeing it at face value. You're seeing it as a Kyler Murray situation, which is different to me than brock Perty is all of a sudden going to be on the bench because they'd rather be playing Mac Jones.
I just do the tenement full of hat on because I thought this was a possibility and people had told me it. I was shocked that Cheney and just put
¶ LA RAMS VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
it out there so nonchalantly that like they're both practicing Pretty's questionable regardless the starters Mac Jones this week, but it's also it could be like we always say the Hens to the wolves, right, they're just rather than putting Pretty out on a horrible spot, yeah and him getting demolished, maybe let mac Jones go out there look terrible. So now you don't have to question the team can't question you.
Now give them the job back to Purdy and yeah again we have a we'll come back around we go to our final five.
I have another opinion on this game.
Oh interesting, all right, Buffalo at Miami, Dude, this one's moving down a little bit. It's nine and a half in a lot of places, but it's nine at hard Rock Bat. You've been trying to convince me on this game all week. I know Miami is the right side. I'll be honest, I still have not bet it. I have, like I just I've every single day I go and I look at the lines, and I go to bed this game and I cannot get my thumb to press except on the button when I finally have to make a decision.
I hate it too, but it's what we do. It's a long term winner.
We know the data backs it up when you dive into the matchups.
It's a good matchup.
And I think we just both have the same fear where we just do not like this Miami team.
We don't trust the SAMI team.
We don't trust to We're worried they've simply quit it on this team in the season and they're just terrible and every out, So I get why you're scared, and we have even mentioned it. They were whole secondary is like injured as well, and they just give away their number one pass rush for Miami.
So there's a lot to be negative here. But it's again all about trusting the line.
It's just a big, big number, and Josh Allen tends to not cover them, especially in a letdown spot after such an emotional game the previous week. But could we usually get rolled here by forty points. Jed, Yes, that's that's life betting these ugly, gross dogs. I've come to terms with it. But I just love this line so much, And like you said, it's luckily in moving with us. So if this got to ten, I would be honestly scared, because that would be mean, that would mean there's a
lot of professional love on this Bills team. Luckily, this is a couple of books in Jersey. I've already moved to eight and a half, so this seems like this is really a prosrus Joe's line, which I thought it would be a long term feels like we're on the right side here. I know that scares you with contest place because you're trying to just live for this week, but I just love this spot from Miami. We've just
seen time and time again Tua on these homesteads. He bounces back and I gave you that crazy stat and I know it's a small stample in his career. On the second back to back game after a loss, when he's underdog once again, three and oh straight up, three and three and oh against the spread, So I don't know if he's gonna win this one, but I think they keep it close, and that backdoor opportunity is always going to be there against this suspect Bills defense, all.
Right, So.
I'm having a hard time finding a fifth, to be honest. We also talked a little bit about the Giants and the Bears. That game had gotten up to four and a half Giants plus four and a half at Chicago.
It's going to be clear for the game.
Snow right now, but it's supposed to clear up for the game. It's going to be very cold, thirty four degrees. It's going to feel much colder because the wins are going to be fifteen.
Miles an hour.
This is shaping up to be the kind of game where the expectation is it's going to be two teams trying to run the ball a lot. And obviously, the Bears rush offense has been so good amongst the best
¶ BUFFALO BILLS VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS
in the NFL, and the Giants rush defense is literally the worst in the NFL, so that's what worries me. But the Bears defense is so bad that I do think Jackson Dart will find opportunities to keep this game close. I can't get this one out of my head. Like the weather's not going to be something that I think scares us. In fact, it could just play to an advantage for both teams and not making stupid mistakes through the air.
Yeah, you're right, and I still looked. You know, I think up there is a show just to take a position on the under. I believe it was forty seven or forty six and a half at that point, and you said it's come down. Now it's up the it's down to forty five and a half. So still some value there in my opinion if those wins are gonna be what it is. And my biggest issue with the Giants is their secondary has their own rash of injuries.
Another secondary I couldn't afford to have a ton of injuries. Yeah, and as much as hay as we like to give Caleb, he is good at pushing the ball down the field, and like when he plays within the offense, you have a coach that schemes it up that the first read is usually wide open, whether it be your tight end streaking down the middle, a room of dunes, or you know DJ Moore like there's you guys just have so
many weapons. I mean, it's why you're a top five, top ten offense right now, So I get where you're coming from. If this was no bad weather, I honestly would you on the giants here take a position on But I just can't get there. And you're on the side of the professionals. I'm kind of on the side of the public area. I'm liking the bears.
All right, let's let's take a quick word from hard rock.
And then we got to make our final five decision here. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, hard Rock Bet. It's that time of year when every day feels like a big game day. You've got Pro football, college football, NBA, college hoops, hockey, it's all happening.
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¶ NEW YORK GIANTS VS. CHICAGO BEARS
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Arizona plus six and a half. I'm leaving it up to you with Miami plus nine and a half, So that's four in So what did you want to say about San Francisco. That's going to make me feel uncomfortable.
So we would be taking them in a bad line in our contest. Unfortunately it is three and a half. So that's that's a tough one. We already on very two very public sides and the Bucks and the Ravens, even though at the last week I swore we wouldn't be on super public sides. Again, at least we don't have the lines, and even I do the Lion spot There's one more very public dog we haven't talked about that is the Eagles. The Eagles, which we were both have been on green Bay. We like it as a
green Bay spot. We like the match for green Bay. But it does matter. Injuries do matter, no Tucker Craft a couple injuries to their defense, Golden is a game time decision.
A J.
Brown is playing for the Eagles, Phillips.
A big ass that they just traded for Brandon Graham. Like they got a bunch of guys back to that defensive line. Nolan Smith, you said AJ Brown's back, Saquon's fully healthy. The only guy that's missing aser center, which again hasn't been that big of a deal. The guy that's replaced them has actually played pretty well. It's an interesting spot. Like we both like the forty nine ers.
We like the number, but it's a bad number where we could be taking the Philly Eagles here at a good number, and that number is moving to one one and a half or minus a half now in the Eagles. So that's that's that's tough to and a week we're taking a lot of bad lines. We could take a good one here in the Eagles, or are we are we doing. Are we sucking ourselves in here taking these three chalky chalky lines?
We know their chalk.
Yeah.
Look, this is why the show is so hard, like on a Sunday morning in real time, trying to make this decision right now when it's against I'm on the Packers at minus two and a half, like I got. I got a bad line on the Packers so and I didn't buy out of it. So I'm going to be rooting against myself and you're going to be rooting against yourself. And we know we're getting the better line with the Eagles, and we know it's probably the rational thing to do versus.
Just wanting it to be the Niners.
I know we're dug inting here on the Niners. That's my That's what I'm trying to ward us off. Like last week I didn't us off enough, and this week I'm trying to do it.
So but what does that mean? What us off? Is that? Like, all right, here's the.
Warrings, no problem, we're telling people to take them five and a half and get the six. But is it really smart of us to put him in a three and a half in this contest? No, it's stupid right, So that's.
What I'm trying to protect us from that.
And even if it hits again, good We've all won money, We've all taken the forty nine years year. I'm just trying to play Devil's advocate of the Eagles. That's a good number. And when we talked about them, I didn't think aji back. I thought they would have injuries, and you know, getting guys back like Dolan Smith.
And trading for a guy like Phillips, that's a huge upgrade.
We've seen the line reflect that despite it being such a pro spot for Green Bay, the lines moved a point and a half, two points. So again, I just wanted to bring that one up because I'm not here to for I'm not trying to force the Lions in. If I'm going to force a game in, even though I'm against it, betting and wise, I guess.
It's the Eagles, all right, Let's do the Eagles. Doing the Eagles.
We're doing the Eagles because we're getting a much better number in the contest. That's really what we're talking about here. So the final five, Jesus, I can't believe. That's such a shock to me. I can't believe two minutes ago. I did not see us putting the Eagles in Baltimore minus three and a half, Bucks minus two and a half, Arizona six and a half, Miami nine and a half. It's on you, brother, Philadelphia plus two and a half.
That's on Monday night.
So we're gonna have to torture ourselves and wait for Monday night football. I don't even know if I'll be able to watch the game. It might take me eighty five tries and four different passwords, and god knows how I'm gonna be able to watch this game on ESPN.
But we're gonna have to figure out a way.
I might have you have to watch your iPad nfl out.
I'm gonna have to put a fucking paper clip in my you know, coaxial cable line or whatever.
All right, that's where we're at.
This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast Network. We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube tonight at eleven or at eleven at seven point thirty Eastern. We're gonna reaca app all the misery and glory of the day. Watch or listen on YouTube. A Sharper Square alike. This video subscribed to the channel also download from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want feedback as a gift until tonight.
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