On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with Xi Jinping Thought on Party Building and further signs that one year after from a summer of rumors and one year out from the 21st Party Congress, Xi’s power remains entrenched as ever. Then: MOFCOM and the Ministry of Finance announced restrictions on several dozen US firms, the global memory chip shortage is an opportunity for CXMT and YMTC, what to make of the U.S. government’s scrutiny of ASML, and Elon Musk’s alarm over the West’s China vulnerabilit...
Jun 24, 2026•14 min
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from Xi’s visit to North Korea this week, including the conspicuous silence on North Korea’s nuclearization, Kim Jong Un’s assistance to Russia’s war in Ukraine, Beijing as Kim’s top priority, U.S.-Japan dialogue on regional nuclear threats, and an email about the PRC as a communist country. From there: CPPCC Chairman Wang Huning leads an inspection tour of Xinjiang ahead of the July 1st implementation of the national ethnic unity law, plus th...
Jun 11, 2026•15 min
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from Xi’s visit to North Korea this week, including the conspicuous silence on North Korea’s nuclearization, Kim Jong Un’s assistance to Russia’s war in Ukraine, Beijing as Kim’s top priority, U.S.-Japan dialogue on regional nuclear threats, and an email about the PRC as a communist country. From there: CPPCC Chairman Wang Huning leads an inspection tour of Xinjiang ahead of the July 1st implementation of the national ethnic unity law, plus th...
Jun 11, 2026•15 min
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with Xi Jinping’s call to seize the commanding heights of science, technology, and industry across six industries of the future, as well as the State Council’s move to release a 34-article law that will implicate domestic firms, foreign businesses and potentially foreign governments, as well as PRC financial institutions and individual investors. From there: Reactions to Secretary of War Pete Hegseth’s remarks at the 2026 Shangri-La Dialogue, why an absence ...
Jun 04, 2026•1 hr 11 min
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that Beijing moved to further ease hukou restrictions, including why this is a welcome change for millions of Chinese citizens, as well as a look at questions and challenges as the reforms are implemented. Then: A report that Chinese AI talent has been restricted from leaving China, while Beijing continues its efforts to control capital outflow and offshore investments. From there: Indications that the US has indeed paused its second tranche of...
May 28, 2026•16 min
On today’s show Andrew and Bill parse the messaging from both sides of last week’s US-China summit in Beijing. Topics include: What the PRC means by “a constructive relationship of strategic stability,” why the US side adopted the framing as well, a relative absence of tangible deliverables, and why “a calculated stalling tactic from both sides designed to manage risk” may be a more accurate rendering of the status quo. From there: Trump’s various comments on Taiwan spark concern and questions, ...
May 21, 2026•12 min
On today’s show Andrew and Bill talk through 360 degrees of President Trump’s trip to Beijing this week. Topics include: Jensen Huang hitching a ride in Alaska, general expectations for deliverables after limited leaks and hurried advance planning, Trump’s reception in Beijing, and the limits of “upper hand” analysis. From there: A coterie of billionaire CEOs make the trip with Trump, a US Chamber of Commerce/Rhodium Report report warning about the PRC’s industrial strategy, and Trump makes over...
May 13, 2026•1 hr 2 min
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that the Meta-Manus deal will likely be unwound in its entirety in the wake of a ruling from the NDRC on Monday. Topics include: The legal grounding cited by Beijing, reports that Manus failed to seek regulatory approval prior to its relocation and acquisition, Mark Zuckerberg as the photo negative of Tim Cook, Beijing’s signal to the AI ecosystem, and why fears of chilled innovation may be slightly overstated. Then: Takeaways from April’s Poli...
Apr 30, 2026•15 min
On today’s show Andrew and Bill return to discuss the PRC’s posture amidst the ongoing war in Iran. Topics include: Xi’s call to re-open the Strait of Hormuz, an interdicted Iranian ship that may have been carrying missile precursors from China, Trump’s posture toward China three weeks before his summit in Beijing, and deals between the US and Indonesia and the US and the Philippines. Then: The SAMR fines several e-commerce giants over food safety concerns in the “ghost delivery” sector, plus th...
Apr 23, 2026•13 min
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the tentative ceasefire in Iran and reports that the PRC applied pressure to the Iranians to defuse the tensions. Topics include: The lack of clarity on what the PRC actually did and why, China’s vote at the UN this week, why the PRC would like the war to end sooner rather than later, and relationships with other Gulf countries that may or may not change because of the war. From there: Ma Xingrui’s disappearance from public view is met with official con...
Apr 09, 2026•13 min
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with thoughts on China’s response to the war in Iran, including a peace plan co-authored with Pakistan, why the PRC is not necessarily interested in global leadership, how China sees a deepening U.S. rift with NATO countries, and President Trump’s visit to Beijing rescheduled for May 14th. From there: Context for the KMT Chair’s visit to China later this month, reactions to a Reuters report on Huawei’s latest AI chips, while the Financial Times reports that ...
Apr 02, 2026•57 min
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with last week’s indictment of Wally Liaw, the co-founder of Super Micro, and its implications for US chip policy. Topics include: Incredible details from the indictment, US enforcement options, and bipartisan calls for government action on Nvidia exports to China and Southeast Asia. Then: Xi takes three Standing Committee members and three other Politburo members to inspect the progress at Xiong’an, signaling continued commitment to the “new area” 60 miles ...
Mar 25, 2026•18 min
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that President Trump has postponed his visit to Beijing amid the war in Iran, including why a delay made sense for both sides, a “Board of Trade” proposal amid signs of stability in Paris, and the uncertainty that pervades on both sides as the war in Iran continues. From there: Reactions to a DNI assessment on China’s reunification intentions, news on U.S. weapons sales to Taiwan, the unknowns for China as Gulf unrest persists, and questions su...
Mar 20, 2026•13 min
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the frenzy surrounding OpenClaw in China, including Beijing’s response, security concerns, liability questions, an object lesson in the Chinese market, and why Tencent looks like a potential winner as regulatory issues are sorted in the months to come. From there: Reports that Beijing is unhappy with the limited preparation in advance of Trump’s visit to China, news that pieces of the THAAD system have been relocated from South Korea to the Middle East,...
Mar 12, 2026•16 min
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the war in Iran and its implications for the PRC. Topics include: Upsides and downsides for China, why US strategy was likely related to Iran and not the PRC, questions about the Strait of Hormuz, the Iran partnership and PRC global leadership, implications for Taiwan, why a Beijing visit from Donald Trump remains likely, and yet another US war in the Middle East… From there: What to watch for at the Two Sessions this week, an exodus at Alibaba, waiting...
Mar 05, 2026•56 min
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the reports that the PRC is threatening to scuttle Trump’s visit to Beijing over a second arms package from the U.S. to Taiwan, including thoughts on next moves from the U.S., how this arms shipment happened, and the PLA’s dangerous aerial maneuvers around Taiwan. From there: Reactions to the news that Jimmy Lai has been sentenced to 20 years in Hong Kong prison, a State Council white paper on “One Country, Two Systems,” and Sanae Takaichi’s party secur...
Feb 12, 2026•16 min
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with follow-up thoughts on the purges at the top of the PLA, including reactions to a New York Times piece on Xi’s “paranoia,” answers that have yet to materialize, He Weidong suicide rumors, and various theories on what any of this might signal. From there: Keir Starmer’s trip to Beijing, caution before drawing too many conclusions from the recent steps from Canada and the U.K., and a flurry of stories about Xi’s ambitions for the RMB as a global reserve cu...
Feb 05, 2026•1 hr 3 min
On today’s show Andrew and Bill react to the news that the rumors were true, and CMC members Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli are under investigation for corruption. Topics include: The timing of the announcement from the Defense Ministry, why this weekend’s news inspired such a volume of reactions around the world, a history of Xi’s crackdowns on the PLA, questions about rumors of a coup against Xi, reports that Zhang Youxia was working with the U.S., the PLA corruption heyday and its implications f...
Jan 29, 2026•11 min
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with reactions to a new “strategic partnership” between China and Canada, including thoughts on fissures in the West that are a win for China, Prime Minister Carney’s “new world order” comments, U.S. rhetoric that created the conditions for a thaw, and why this direction could be a decision Canadians come to regret. From there: The UK and countries in the EU consider a thaw of their own, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer headed to Beijing, the “mega embassy” ...
Jan 22, 2026•13 min
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the instability in Iran, including thoughts on Trump’s Truth Social post threatening 25% tariffs on Iran trade partners, why that threat is unlikely to materialize as additional US tariffs on Chinese goods, and the PRC’s concerns about oil access, investments, and regional stability as the situation continues to evolve in Tehran. From there: Chinese refiners eye Canadian crude oil, Prime Minister Mark Carney visits Beijing and seeks Canadian export mark...
Jan 15, 2026•9 min
On today’s show Andrew and Bill return from the holidays and begin with the PRC’s reaction to the arrest of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. Topics include: PRC outrage and embarrassment, the propaganda value of the U.S. disregard for international law, oil questions, why most of the Taiwan takes were misplaced, looming tension at the Panama Canal, and Iran as a wildcard. From there: A Ministry of Commerce directive on rare earths for Japan, and questions about how this standoff might end. At the en...
Jan 08, 2026•1 hr 4 min
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from the Central Economic Work Conference, including the latest push to stimulate domestic demand, why consumption is intertwined with security, speculation surrounding Politburo member Ma Xingrui, and a reminder that many of the economic challenges facing China remain intertwined with politics. From there: More thoughts on the sale of H-200s to China, and a look back on the stories that dominated the podcast this year, including a TikTok saga...
Dec 17, 2025•14 min
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that the US is greenlighting the sale of Nvidia’s H200 chips to the PRC market. Topics include: Dubious claims in Trump’s Truth Social post announcing the news, searching for arguments in support of this policy change, the 25% of China revenue Nvidia will pay to the U.S. government, and waiting for Beijing’s response, including how many U.S. chips Chinese companies will be allowed to buy. From there: The U.S. halts plans to sanction the MSS and...
Dec 10, 2025•12 min
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the call between Trump and Xi last week, a subsequent call between Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, and the PRC’s ongoing tensions with Japan. Topics include: Conflicting reports surrounding both calls last week, PRC rhetoric that continues to escalate, contested history surrounding Okinawa, and PRC behavior that may be clarifying for the rest of the world. From there: Various points of emphasis at the Politburo study session on strengt...
Dec 03, 2025•1 hr 3 min
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a week of escalating rhetoric in response to Japanese Prime Minister Sane Takaichi’s comments about a Taiwan contingency. Topics include: Memories of Senkakku Islands tensions in 2012, why protests in the streets are unlikely this time, possibilities to escalate and de-escalate from here, and possible PRC motivations for reacting so forcefully. From there: A new round of disappointing real estate data while Lou Jiwei predicts prolonged contraction, “pha...
Nov 19, 2025•18 min
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the implementation of this month's deal between the US and China, including a variety of early indications that both sides intend to follow through with commitments made in South Korea, the PRC's clarification on its December 2024 export controls, and a report on the PRC implementing VEU system for rare earth exports to the US. From there: A variety of news and notes including a new textbook on Xi Jinping Economic Thought, Xi's visit to the Fujian aircr...
Nov 12, 2025•16 min
On today's show Andrew and Bill break down the latest deal between the US and China, beginning with details from the White House over the weekend, why the PRC is likely happy with a tactical retreat and the new status quo, and why stability is likely at least through April. From there: Why the PRC was motivated to deal despite its goals of eliminating tariffs and export controls, clarity about American pain points, questions about Congress and what comes next, and the costs of China's strategy f...
Nov 05, 2025•1 hr 4 min
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the looming Trump-Xi meeting in Seoul, South Korea, and the "consensuses" agreed upon in Kuala Lampur this past weekend. Topics include: Treasury Scott Bessent's comments indicate that the recent rare earth export controls could be delayed by a year, questions about what the U.S. might have conceded to secure that delay, talk of removing fentanyl tariffs, how Beijing sees the US in 2025, and a Trump visit to Beijing that may portend relative stability i...
Oct 29, 2025•12 min
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with questions surrounding the Fourth Plenum as it continues in Beijing this week. Topics include: The Party's messaging on past successes, a timeline for policy announcements in the days and weeks to come, steps the Party may take to address consumption with its next Five-Year Plan, and the full spectrum of possibilities surrounding Xi and his succession plans. From there: Reactions to the news of PLA purges that became official last week, including why som...
Oct 22, 2025•14 min
On today’s show Andrew and Bill react to the PRC’s announcement of expanded export controls on rare earths and related manufacturing equipment. Topics include: Why countries around the world were immediately concerned, clarifications offered from the PRC that may not allay those concerns, and why viewing these rules as a response to the recent BIS updates is overly simplistic. From there: The American response to the rare earth measures, including Trump's "Xi had a bad moment" comment, TACO pred...
Oct 14, 2025•16 min
