Quick Bite: Bonds vs. equities–investing in an uncertain market - podcast episode cover

Quick Bite: Bonds vs. equities–investing in an uncertain market

Feb 02, 20253 min
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Episode description

What are bonds role in today’s unpredictable economic landscape?

In this quick bite, Chris Di Leva from Harbour Asset Management & Pattrick Smellie from Businessdesk talk about how bonds can hedge against global growth shocks, plus the shifting dynamics of globalization, trade, and geopolitics. 

Plus, what is the likelihood that political uncertainty—from Trump’s unpredictability to broader geopolitical risks—could upend markets?

This quick bit is from our previous episode 2025: What Investors need to know

For more or to watch on YouTube—check out http://linktr.ee/sharedlunch

Shared Lunch is brought to you by Sharesies Limited (NZ) in New Zealand and Sharesies Australia Limited (ABN 94 648 811 830; AFSL 529893) (collectively referred to as ‘Sharesies’). Appearance on Shared Lunch is not an endorsement by Sharesies of the views of the presenters, guests, or the entities they represent. Their views are their own. Shared Lunch is not personal financial advice and provides general information only. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. We recommend talking to a licensed financial adviser. You should review relevant product disclosure documents before deciding to invest. Investing involves risk. You might lose the money you start with. Content is current at the time.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

You're listening to a shares these podcast, So what is the recommendations for investors? Do you think to see you? Then, I think bonds actually still look good, so yields, and you've got to think about the risks that they're hedging you for. If you look back to twenty twenty two, everyone says our bonds didn't work. My equities went down, my bonds went down. It was just horrible. There's no diversification. Bonds don't ensure you for an inflation shock. They ensure

you for a growth shock. And right now, the consensus view is that everything goes along really, really well, and that's why bond yields are higher than they are. Us growth will be pretty robust, but the world is a mysterious place where things like COVID nineteen happen, and then you need your bonds to ensure your portfolio. You are getting paid to be there at the moment. The one caveat i'd really give is that the additional return you're getting for buying a corporate bond or a corporate bond

fund is really really low at the moment. So i'd favor I do favor in portfolio is having more of a sovereign bent than a corporate bent, because that's rarely going to help you with your downside protection. So yeah, I think they look good, as I said, New Zealand, but more relatively attractive compared to global shares. And that's largely because of just how wide the breadth of expensiveness goes, particularly in the US, to a lesser extent globally as well.

Speaker 2

You know, when you talk about downside protection, I think it's worth thinking hard about that because the one thing that I think has changed from in the last say, three or four years compared to almost the whole of the rest of my career is we've been through a period of globalization, trade liberalization, internationally accepted rules. We're now into where economy kind of trumped politics. We're into an

era now where politics trump's the economy and trade. So there is a lot of uncertainty and baked into that. It can just be Trump saying something different every day, or it can be the Chinese economy tanking so badly that they need to create a distraction and decide to invade Taiwan. You know, all sorts of things can happen when politicians rather than markets are driving things which you

don't see coming. So I do think that while there's a lot of upside there in the US story, and I really take your point about new Ually it may not look very exciting, but if it's cheap enough, it's always exciting. I would be taking a lot of cognizance of the potential for something to come created by our fellow man and women, but mainly man, which will up end the apple cart, and which has nothing to do with actual economic conditions and has everything to do with geopolitics.

Speaker 1

Investing involves a risk you might lose the money you start with. We recommend talking to a licensed financial advisor. We also recommend b reading product disclosure documents before deciding to invest. Everything you're about to see and hear is current at the time of recording.

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