You're listening to a Charsis podcast and keen to find out what your outlook for the year is now that we've had another cut and possibly will have some more.
But it's not just about interest rate cuts now, there's more in the mix there. There are definitely some positives for the New Zealand economy. The Reserve banker predicting the economy will grow about zero point six percent a quarter from here on out possible. I think they could be a little bit optimistic. But you're the positives of the
interst rate pain easing away and disappearing. That's completely different from saying there's an interrast rate boost coming along, which is more your pandemic period GFC, that sort of thing. The dairy payout, so that's positive for the dairying regions, not so much of an impact on the rest of the country there. World economy neither here nor there too
greatly I think, and causing too much to happen there. Construction, yeah, infrastructure, it's a slow burn to improve, so that'll be a stimulant, but it's incremental over a long period of time. Soure Shall, I definitely see some positives here on the commercial construction side, house building, standalone houses improving later this year. Townhouse construction just falling straight lining away. I think to some point in twenty twenty six is going to be a restraint
on growth. I think there's scope for a few more foreign students to come into New Zealand. On the tourism side, yeah, I guess maybe the government's new campaign will drag a few more people into New Zealand. It's got a lot of publicity overseas, so it's so good on them. It doesn't boost the productivity in our economy, it doesn't boost our income per capita or at all. Just more people
serving in the cafeterias, cafes, et cetera. But overall, my outlookers for the economy to improve, and I guess my focus will be mainly when does that lead to people's feelings about the labor market changing? When do people feel a greater amount of job security. I'll be able to see that straight away in my real estate survey, because I asked the agents and they're right at the cold
face and they'll see it. I'd'm thinking that is sometime in the second half of this year, and that will then I think flow through to the house housing market putting in a better performance, but for the moment while, I've still got about a net fifty one percent of the agent saying all people are worried about their jobs or sorry, a gross fifty one percent is just going to keep a bit of a dampner on the housing market for the first half.
Of this year.
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