Kyonda, and welcome to Shared Lunch, brought to you by Chase's.
I'm Helen Madison.
Today we take a pulse check on the economy. I'll be speaking with Infametrics principal economist Brad Olsen.
The worry now a little bit more is that households, businesses, and professional forecasters are all now thinking that there is a bit more inflation to come.
So what does this mean for investors?
It's only a temporary pause that we're seeing with these tariffs, and that some of the results could still be pretty damaging.
What should you be looking out for?
Everyone's trying to figure out what the sweet spot is and sort of how to balance what is a lot of uncertainty.
And what should you ignore.
It's been the sort of recognition from a lot of people that, hey, sometimes that the markets have been over correcting or a bit overly worried about things and then seem to come back the other way.
Before we get started, here's some important information.
Investing involves the risk you might lose the money you start with. We recommend talking to a licensed financial advisor. We also recommend eating product disclosure documents before deciding to invest. Everything you're about to see and here is current at the time of recording.
Welcome Brad, great to see you again. It's been a while.
It has been a while. In goodness, what a lot has happened in the economy in that intervening period. Seems like we've gone from the brink of World War III to ceasefires, to tariffs to everything else. I mean, it's been a pretty wild ride.
It has.
Let's start here at home and think about our economy and growth. It appears that we are sort of stepping up a little bit after all the kind of recession talk, et cetera, et cetera. However, it appears to me that the only real growth we're seeing is in the rural sector, with milk prices, with beef for burgers to the US, which is good for exports, and then that yellow gold butter.
You're definitely right, I mean, the rural sector is definitely powering the early stages of the economic recovery. You look at the likes of the trade numbers we've got coming through, commodity prices all in a better place. I think it's true as well when you look across the world. That's also partly a supply story. From other providers. So you look at the likes of butter, milk, other dairy products, New Zealand productions actually up, which is unusual when prices
are sort of at the levels that they are. But it's production out of the likes of Europe and the Americas that haven't been doing quite as well. New Zealand's able to provide everyone else wants to pay for it. We've been doing not too bad. You look at also the numbers though, so the milk payout that's come through has generated over nineteen billion of money that'll be going
back into the primary sector. What's interesting is in the season just finished, you're talking something like four point five four point six billion dollars more than the season before. That's more money coming through than the entirety of the lower interest rates that households be paying this year. So the primary sector is definitely a very critical part at
the start. The question is does it continue. Because you do start to see a few of those numbers that likes the latest couple of global dairy trade options, they've fallen back a touch and I think that does just suggest again things are all right for the minute, but a bit of a question going forward in terms of how strong it will be. Fonterra has also made it quite clear that they think there's effectively a bit of
a downside risk. They've come out that said, you know, milk prices at ten bucks for the season ahead, but it could range anywhere between eleven and eight. That's a three dollar range, the biggest they've ever provided, and more on the downside than there is the upside. I guess that's almost the tone for the second half of this year is Yep, there's a recovery coming through, but it's a very cautious and slow one.
Is it only the rural sector that are actually going leaps and bounds or are other do you see other sort of green shoots? Which is a bit of a hackneyed phrase at the moment, but I'll use it anyway.
First three months of this year looked all right. You saw economic activity that expanded actually quite a bit apecent, you know, some of the biggest increase in quarterly growth that we've seen amongst a lot of our international partners. I think the challenges after that, once you start to get into April, you have the lights of the tariff slow down and everything else that's come through you've seen
some of those indicators that have fallen back. At the start of this year, there were a few parts the likes of there was some better manufacturing numbers that were coming forward. You also saw better professional services activity, so you're getting you know, business services going a bit more again. Both of those look like they've fallen back of touch as we've moved through into the mid year period, manufacturing and services and disease falling back into sort of contractionary territory.
So just that feeling of yes, there's a recovery, but it's a bit more stop start. It's a bit more slow to get going than we might have first expected. And I feel like a lot of people ask me these days, you know, economist said survived till twenty five and I sort of have to respond and say, look, we've got into the thirty first of December for that come true. But it is going to be a slow slog I think for this year.
Yeah, it feels like one step forward to back to some degree. I mean, the cost of food seems to still keep rising, fuel keeps rising, and whether that's because of the conflicts and the like.
Yeah, I mean, where are we at with inflation.
Inflation's uncomfortable at the moment, and like probably more uncomfortable than we would have first been expecting some people in our forecasting that headline inflation might go through three percent towards the second half of this year. Now, that of course, would be the first time that it had breached that three percent high point of the highest that the Reserve
Bank generally wants it to go. Now, yes, there's an expectation a short term, but there does just seem to be enough sort of remaining inflationary pressure to make us a little bit worried. And some people often ask, you know, how do you have this when you've got the economy that's in such a tough zone. You know, it's not really a conducive environment right to raise prices, but you're still seeing them. And I do wonder if we're starting to see almost a twenty twenties version of stagflation. Now
that's a big word to use. I'm not saying we're going back to the nineteen seventies. It's a very different environment, but you do just get the feeling that there's a little bit more of that inflationary undercurrent sitting around food price inflation's now reaccelerated to four point four percent. What's interesting is that last time it got sort of to this high level, and I think you know now at the highest food price inflation since the end of twenty
twenty three. The difference is at that point it was very, very broad based, lots of stuff increasing in price all the time, whereas now it's a bit more concentrated to a more limited set of items. But the big increases. You look at the likes of butter up sort of fifty sixty percent the last year, mints and beef prices
higher again because those international prices. You look at the likes of coffee, chocolate, olive oil, all of those increasing all the But it's also it's not everything, but it's the stuff that you notice so so much more, and I think that's probably the difference. You've also got the likes of oil prices, yes, fluctuating quite a lot this year. But the real one, I think, and the kicker for
households at the minute, is energy prices. You look at electricity and gas now rising at the fastest they've been going in over ten years, and again it's just that uncomfortable piece where from a household perspective. You've got food prices going up, you've got energy costs going up. And the worry now a little bit more, is that households, businesses, and prefertional forecasters all now thinking that there is a
bit more inflation to come. Inflation expectations have increased, not massively again, not to red alert danger zones, but just to enough of a position where again the worry starts to creep in, sort of a bit of a pit in the bottom of your stomach around inflation sitting by, and I think that's why the reserve banks in this really challenging position where they're going the economy doesn't look great,
and I worry again. You look back to where we've been a couple of years back, the likes of inflation when it started to get bad. It was at a time when we thought the economy wouldn't allow inflation to pass through, and we sort of almost conveniently at the time, ignored actual inflation starting to creep up again. Not fully back in the same position, but it seems a little bit too similar to completely ignore it.
That's a good segue to the Reserve bank. By the time this episode goes to air. They will have actually the Reserve Bank will have actually announced.
What the official cash rate is.
Everybody's been hoping it would be another reduction, but it does feel like consensus is they will hold.
What was your prediction, We're expecting a hold as well, to keep their official cash rate where it is at three point twenty five percent, but also expecting that there could be a further cut at some point later in the year. And I guess that's where again that nervousness creeps in that it's a little bit hard to justify
moving right this moment. You know, there's still the clarification of what happens with the tariffs around the world, still a bit more data to come through when it comes to inflation and similar and so I think again that sort of question of where does the Reserve Bank go next is probably the bigger one, and they'll have a better opportunity in August to be able to explain not only the most recent decision, but also what that future
pathway looks like, because that's what everyone's concentrated on. Is there a lot left to go? Are we close to the end? Have we already seen the end? Quite a lot of options going forward.
Yeah, I suppose they're sending out letters at the moment. According to Trump's officials and to you know, lots of countries that actually probably have quite high tarifs, they do something quite quickly, So you're right, we probably might have to wait until that happens.
And I mean you look at the market reaction as well. I mean, when the tariffs originally came through at the start of April like that, that was a bit of a mountdown on the markets. What's I think interesting is that even in recent times you've seen this sort of the markets actually continue to push higher on some economic news, but almost conveniently forgetting that there's it's only a temporary pause that we're seeing with these tariffs, and that some
of the results could still be pretty damaging. I mean, recently we've seen an agreement with between the US and Vietnam. They came out and said, look, twenty percent tariff. Now that's lower than the forty six I think percent they started with. Twenty percent tariff on everything coming out of Vietnam is still quite a lot though, and into the US market becomes quite important because that's where a lot
more manufacturing is based. Anything that transits through Vietnam sitting at forty percent tariffs and the US gets completely you know, free access into the market. Like that's still pretty bad for economic expectations going forward. So I'm a little bit worried again that people are sort of quite happily blase because it's been such a tough ride knowing what's coming next. But if that's any indication again economic growth globally will slow.
If you're seeing those levels of teriffs. They might be better than what was announced in April, but they're not good for global economic growth.
And that's even with China and I think the UK sort of negotiating, and we'll obviously see other negotiations in the next month or so. But yeah, it feels still somewhat bleak.
Doesn't it.
Yeah, very challenging, and I mean it's one of those things for New Zealand, of course, we rely on the global economic environment to trade. At the moment, I think we're actually probably not too badly placed. People were still buying our food stuff, so we're selling to consumers a lot more if we were selling sort of semi manufactured goods or sort of intermediate goods that went into the production process. If we were selling cars, you'd be in
a very, very tough spot. And having been in Korea earlier this year, when again they are a lot more wedded to not only the US economy, but to some of that more manufactured stuff, they were definitely sort of feeling the pinch a whole lot quicker than we were now.
Interest rates also always have a bearing on house prices, so the rate cuts.
That we've had, we've had several I think it's two.
Hundred and twenty five basis points over the last few months. However, it doesn't appear that the heat has come back into that housing market.
No, not at all. And despite the fact that you know you've got some fairly attractive interest rates on offer, you just haven't seen that same level of buyer demand spark up to the same degree. At the same time, you've got a huge number of houses that are still on the market. I think there's a few elements that. One is the fact that there is literally half a year's worth of normal sales setting available on the market.
Takes a while to clear that backlog. You've also got a lot of new builds that have only sort of recently been finished up, a lot of selling activity potential in the market, not as many buyers coming through. You've seen the likes of net migration pull back, so your
population growth has slowed. But I think particularly again, it's interesting sort of when you look at some of the indicat after that tariff announcement in April, there did seem to be a real feeling amongst potential buyers that they actually weren't quite as keen to clamber in, you know, worries around the likes that interest rate they might be paying, and what it might be in the future, the risk
of do I have a job or not? Will this completely upset the apple cart, probably more importantly for some people that probably had their potential deposit in their investments, all of a sudden they didn't have as much of a deposit as before. That means that there's still no real reason that prices are going to be bid up, and I think for a while then you'll start to we'll continue to see yes, probably some price rises, but very very muted as you go through the next couple
of years. And that's probably not a bad place for New Zealand. What's interesting is it does now mean that people are increasingly going well, okay, housing market doesn't have a lot of immediate growth in it. Where am I making money now? And that seems to be the piece where people are casting around a lot more for not only money making options, but a wider variety of those options.
That's a nice segue into the Cheesies Quarterly Index, which we have released this week. And definitely there is a correlation we've seen between interest rates and investor sentiment. We've got data for the last five years, which is, you know, it's a good metric, and it would appear that when rates have come down there is more immediacy in terms of investing.
What would you.
Say, I think there's a few elements to it. One is that generally, as your interest rates come lower, some of your sort of less risky options, you know, putting money into term deposits or similar just isn't nearly as attractive anymore. When it becomes a little bit harder to make those returns, you're having to sort of, you know,
change around or think about adjusting your risk profile. I think it's also though, that as those interest rates come down, they do normally stimulate a bit more economic activity on the whole, both here and around the world. That generally means more economic activity, more selling for the businesses that you might be investing in, better returns, and similar over time. So it's sort of reassuring to see that. I think. Also, though, the big challenge in recent times has been that greater
level of volatility that you've seen coming forward. There's been a lot of rebalancing, both from retail investors but also the big institutional guys. Everyone's trying to figure out what the sweet spot is and sort of how to balance what is a lot of uncertainty, and the best way for that seems to be less picking one deliberate strategy and going all in and more having that quite a bit more diversified option, which is reassuring to see because
that seems to be the best method. But people are very much trying to sort of seek out those different opportunities.
We're also seeing subset of investors which is growing actually looking to other emerging sectors, like we're talking AI, we're talking crypto, we're talking defense tech, we're talking autonomous vehicles, which it's quite exciting in some respects. Obviously, commercialization with these sort of new tech aspects are coming to the fore.
I think also though, the availability of some of these options to investors is new, right, Like, there are some exciting opportunities there, but some of these again are a little bit more unproven. And look, if you want to take that big risk, you might get that big return, sure, but equally it might not come off to the same degree.
I remember, even a couple of years ago, you started to see a few more businesses that have basically sold nothing at that point, and the evaluations continue to skyrock higher and higher on this expectation of better things to come, coupled with the fact that people are seeking those sort of higher returns because inflation has been high, economic pressures
have come on. They are few people like say, not all of them, but that growing subset caen to find a different opportunity, and I guess hoping to be not necessarily the first, but in that sort of early wave of adopters and investors, because that's where you start to make some of those longer gains. Over time, you get an early you sort of ride that wave through. What will be interesting, I think is that at some point you will have some of these options that don't perform
as well. That's just how the market works. It'll be interesting to see how people respond to that in terms of do they get a little bit burned and then immediately withdraw or do they go, look, actually, this is how the markets work. I'm going to be sort of happy to keep in it for that longer period of time. I think that people generally will stick around. They're often going to be younger investors who are have a bit more risk tolerance, willing to ride the wave for longer.
I mean, it's something that also comes up a lot more in conversation. You know, people have been asking recently about the likes of AI, about gold, about carbon credits, about you know, crypto and similar. But also what's interesting I think is even some of the subsets of certain industries. You know, defenses are often a lot hotter and of greater interest these days. You know, questions around will actually how do you what are you looking for when it
comes to defense assets? You know, it's not necessarily the usual will if consumers get to spend more than things will be better for defense as well. I think that the geopolitics is going to be a whole lot more challenging, so different drivers I think means that people are also seeking out a different sort of information than what they've had before.
And I do see like even in the US they're thinking about being able to use your crypto assets as part of your for a house. Even in Germany they're looking at banks are looking at being able to transact in crypto. I mean, we're not there yet, but it does seem to be continuing to increase in demand.
Absolutely not only increase in demand, but becoming more mainstream. You know, again, you go back sort of five, certainly ten years ago, and let's be quite honest, crypto was not mainstream. It was very much fringe. It was seen
to be you know, different odd at some points. I still think, you know, for a lot of people that you've got to keep your wits about you in some of those areas because for sort of every sensible approach that's being taken in some areas to crypto, there's another fart coin that comes out every second day as well. Like the variety there makes it hard sometimes to sort of say crypto is this and be an all encompassing statement. There's a bit of variety in there, but it is
becoming more mainstream. There's certainly more opportunity that starts to come through, and I guess also slightly challenging to say this, but I think it's real that you look around the world, less trust and government and similar means that people are again just wanting to hedge their bets a little bit more in terms of where they sort of park their
money and their assets. And I think again, for a lot of people, it's not necessarily saying, look, I'm going all in on any one sect or whatever it happens to be, but I'm quite keen. As an investor these days, it seems on average to be a bit more exposed to a lot of things, and that sort of broad, diverse exposure does mean that you can pick up some of those gains when some of those newer asset classes
start to emerge and provide you more potential. And I think this is where it's been interesting seeing people develop the last couple of years when there has been this sort of implicit conversation amongst New Zealanders around their risk tolerance, because it has been for you know, when term deposits were high, where you didn't have to think about risk tolerance. You parked your money in something that just gave you, you know, it just continued to provide at a high
and high level. Now that you've got to be a bit more discerning, I think that's where the level of interest is coming back. I mean same in terms of the number or proportion of people on shares as I expect to are buying companies specifically, Again, a little bit more new wants there where people are going. Look, I've done a bit of research. I want to make sure that I understand my exposure a bit more. These are
the areas I'm starting to push into. So again, I think we've got a more discerning, a sort of more more direct investor starting to come through.
Rat Just thinking about the US economy, there were lots of predictions that with the tariff uncertainty and the like, that that economy would start to slow.
We actually aren't.
Seeing that, maybe because the tariff situation is on again, off again, but really it does seem that still a powerhouse.
Yeah, the US economy seems a little bit unkillable on that front, I mean a bit serious. I mean, you're right, people were expecting economic activity to pull back, for inflation to spike a whole lot higher, for unemployment to start to increase. You just really haven't seen too many of those signs. I think underneath the surface is a little bit in the data that does suggest again more challenges.
You look at the likes of some of the over revisions that keep coming through to employment numbers in the US, they do generally continue to be revised lower on this sort of second and third published. But again there's still enough in there, there's still enough jobs growth that's keeping the economic motor humming. I do wonder if part of it is a timing thing. You know, you have had
in recent times, a whole lot of uncertainty. People have generally probably just tried to keep on moving forward, haven't known what way to sort of move in terms of investment or otherwise. So I do wonder if it might be sort of again you start to see those impacts
a little bit later on. But again, even then, the economic motor in the US still seems solid enough for the moment with the I mean, the feed is still talking about sort of one to two rates cuts this year still as well, which is sort of the weird thing is that the economy looks robust enough, underlying conditions look a little bit weaker, which might allow you to cut interest rates a bit more, but you're certainly not going to get some of the larger cuts that some
people I think hope for to try and stimulate even more activity, and that's probably the right spot for the US in general, but it also means that increasingly look earlier this year, when the tariffs were announced, people were saying, We're going to completely move away from the US. I'm just not going to park any money there. I mean, people have come flocking back pretty quickly because there's still
good returns. They still look at other opportunities too. Europe still seems to be a bit more in interest than before, but certainly those US numbers look a little bit more solid. I guess the question will be as we continue through the year, do you see a bit more of a trend start to emerge on either direction, because I think that's almost part of the problem is that the US economy is a little bit direction list at the moment. You're not sure if it's about to trend down or
trend up. It's just it's just moving forward at a solid pace without sort of any movement up or down.
Yes, and markets are definitely hitting record highs and NAISDAK and the S and P five hundred, so it's I can see why investors, particularly on Cheesy's. We have about eighty percent of our trading as in US. That said, forty one percent is held here in New Zealand, so there's a bit of a difference there, but in terms of trading, that's definitely where people are still gravitating.
Yeah, it's interesting as well, right with the volatility that's come through because I mean, you look at some of the days we've had this year, like wild wild times and watching what would you know previously have been a couple of weeks or months of movement happen, you know, within seconds or minutes. Has been quite hard to stomach sometimes, and even amongst that, actually it looks like people have
been buying in a bit more. You know. I'm not going to say everyone buying the dip, but I think there's been the sort of recognition from a lot of people that, hey, sometimes that the markets have been I think maybe over correcting or a bit overly worried about things and then seem to come back the other way. Now, let's be real. I also worry a little bit that the markets sometimes undercook or don't forward cast as much of the challenging conditions and sort of take good expected
economic news and sort of just run with it. But what was fascinating, I think is also in recent times, when you had conflict in the Middle East, we've been expecting likes of oil prices some of those other commodities to spike up sharply. There wasn't anything, in fact, in terms of actual market action. I think most of the US market numbers actually went higher despite some of those
commodities starting to show pressure. Now I do wonder if everyone's become a little bit numb in a sense to just how many of these big geopolitical things come through. And people are now starting to look a little bit more at the numbers and going, Okay, yep, some people are expecting certain things, but until I actually start to see them that expectation move to reality. I'm going to look at what's actually right in front of me, what's actually being reported here and now, and move with that.
And I think that's again, that's quite a different market than what we've seen previously. When you jumped at shadows, you jumped to any sort of little tibit of information. Now people seem to be not only holding back but going look when there is actual, real information. I'm going to work on that. I'm going to pile in a bit more, and I'm not going to react nearly as much to sort of just some of that that broader stuff in the expectation piece. That's a shift.
Let's jump back to New Zealand and how businesses here are feeling. There's been a number of out in recent weeks.
They were looking at a recovery. But what would you say, we're sentiment.
Now Sentiments okay? And I guess I say okay, because depending on how you look at it, in some areas, the economy still looks weak forward expectations still don't look great, but confidence about what's sort of coming up next is still improving, if you will, And I think that's again probably indicative of where the economy is moving. It's improving slowly but surely, but it's sort of a sluggish one. People are still worried in different sectors about how they'll go.
You know, you look at the likes of the construction sector again pretty tough in many respects, Retail a whole lot more, mixed, manufacturing a whole lot more, mixed, agricultural primary sector in a good spot, but I do think as well. Second half of this year, you do have
people that are refixing onto those lone mortgage rates. Everyone's trying to act a little bit more limited in terms of their investment intentions and similar There seems to be this view of, look, yes, there might well be better things to come, but I'm going to be very careful with my money. As a business, I'm going to be careful with my hiring. And from a household perspective, everyone seems to be more careful with their cash too.
Yeah, jobs, I would have thought they would be coming back a little bit by now, but the figures aren't really telling us that.
Every time we get monthly job numbers, they seem to show a little bit of a slight tick up, but then that almost always gets revised again within the next couple of months. And the more interesting indicator in recent times has been the number of job ads that are out there, you know, the number of job opportunities that you can apply for in seasonally adjusted terms. They've basically been flat now for just about a year now. That's flat at sort of levels that we haven't seen since
about twenty thirteen or so. So it's been a long time. The fact that they're flat is good relative to the idea that they could still be falling, but it also says that if they've been flat for nearly a year now, there's not really any real trend of them starting to pick up any sort of momentum. And you do just get this feeling again from businesses that they are in this sort of holding pattern where they would love to
employ more people. They just can't see the sort of expectations for really strong things ahead enough for you to start to hire a whole bunch more. You're seeing that as well a lot more young people that are becoming unemployed. That's the group who are often losing their jobs, some of them heading for Australia and similar So some of those trends I think are fairly well established at this point.
We also haven't seen any real trend that they are starting to improve any quicker than we might have expected. In fact, in most cases they're taking a whole lot longer.
Now, Brad, is there anything positive that investors can look too?
Where is there any silver linux in somewhere?
As there seem to be some decent enough deals on in terms of the prices that you can get various stocks and options and similar for and again you know, where you've done a bit of homework, other options seem to be far over valued considering what they're delivering. But again that's very case by case. I guess what's interesting is that normally when we look at different sectors, is quite a general environment.
Right.
You look at retail and you go, well, all of retail's not doing that well. It's been interesting. In the New Zealand case, you see a few places where they put our announcement like, look, training conditions have been worse than we thought. We've seen, you know, poorer results than we've been expecting. But other areas sort of a little bit quietly but pretty confidently going like, hey, numbers are
not bad at the moment. We're going all right, even within sometimes the same segment, which really does go to show that is a very discerning environment again, where it's not sort of just everything moving in one broad thrust. I do wonder as well if that means that people are taking more notice of businesses, strategies, who's on the board, what sort of movements they're making, and how quick because this does seem to be quite a dynamic environment. Now
by that. I mean, it's shifting so quickly that I do wonder. You know, people seem to be a lot more interested in executives. You know, what are they doing, what's the board doing? Have they made changes quickly enough? Or have they sort of allowed things to just sort of languish and then all of a sudden, Oh, some big changes come through. They haven't reacted to I don't know, be it you know, government cutbacks. They haven't reacted to how the market's been shifting. So I do think that
there's an interesting variation in the reports. Like I say, genuinely, some going look, it's pretty tough out there, and sometimes operators that you thought would have been a lot more solid or stable through a downturn. But equally some areas of the market where you go, geez, that's pretty impressive that you're still able to make some pretty good numbers happen. It's a bit more all what has this company going
on below the surface? How are the board performing, how long have they been there, what are they up to? You know, are they agitating for change? What's the executive team doing? What's the strategy? And that I do wonder
as well. I mean I don't think there's a good indicator here in New Zealand, but like how many people are showing up to the likes of agms and similar to try and make sure they either get their point across to management and the board, but also trying to gain a little bit more information of what are you taking us forward into because it is uncertain. You've got to be nimble, and I think people are sort of casing out boards and management a lot more than they did before.
Is there anything investors should ignore if we end on that?
I mean, some times it's very easy to doom scroll right in this environment like be it you know us sort of market changes and similar. I guess probably a need to keep your wits about you in terms of how current your information is. I remember when the likes of you saw a conflict in the Middle East recently. I was sometimes reading analysis that had come out that basically had missed the mark because it had come out
too late. You know, by the time someone had published and been like, look there's a risk of the oil goes to one hundred and ten dollars a barrel. Oil had crashed back below seventy all of a sudden, and it was just so there is a real need to be very very current, or to at least be sort of aware of when stuff has been coming out, so
that you make sure you've got the latest stuff. But also, like I say, not doom scrolling too much, because there's a lot out there that as an investor as a person, you just can't control, and so I think more trying to put some of that aside, looking for where there is actionable intelligence that you can actually base a bit more of a decision off that you might be able to do something with yourself. Having a bit of a clear headed strategy, working the information and then making the decision.
That'll probably put you a lot better than sort of just blind reacting to every sort of market movement, because certainly the thing that I've experienced the last couple of months, people are coming forward with a lot more questions about that volatility. They're going, hey, this has moved massively. Should I be concerned? And normally the answer that question is if you were concerned, you should have been concerned before
the big change came through. So if you've got a good strategy, if you know where you're going, I think that gives you a lot more confidence as an investor as to what you're thinking about for the future.
Yeah, sometimes it pays to hold, doesn't it. But you don't want to put your head in the sand at the same time.
That's the balance, right, You've got to have enough recent information to be able to make good judgment calls, not so much that you get bogged down put your head in the sand. Not so much either that you jump at every moving shadow. It's a very delicate balance.
Well, Brad, we could talk forever as usual, but it's time to go. Thanks so much for coming into the studio.
Thanks for having me. These are always great fun.
And thanks to everyone for tuning in. You can watch your lunch on YouTube tube or find us on your favorite podcast app. Leave us a rating and tell us what you like to hear next. Matowa