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How to spot a bubble

Sep 24, 202530 min
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Episode description

Is the market in a bubble? With US exchanges seeing record highs, AI hype still soaring, and a recent US Federal Reserve rate cut, it’s a question some investors are asking. In this episode, we get Scott Phillips’ views on identifying an expensive share price vs a worthy buy—based on his experience as The Motley Fool’s Chief Investment Officer, Advisor, and Portfolio Manager.

Scott explains why a record high isn't always a red flag, and his strategy for distinguishing between a bubble and justifiable optimism. We discuss the current state of the market against first hand lessons from the dot-com bubble and the COVID crash. Scott shares the perils of trying to catch the bottom—and how even the best business in the world may be overpriced.

Plus, Scott’s take on assessing investments, weighing up reasonable probabilities against downside and upside risks.

For more or to watch on YouTube—check out http://linktr.ee/sharedlunch

Shared Lunch is brought to you by Sharesies Australia Limited (ABN 94 648 811 830; AFSL 529893) in Australia and Sharesies Limited (NZ) in New Zealand. It is not financial advice. Information provided is general only and current at the time it’s provided, and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. We do not provide recommendations and you should always read the disclosure documents available from the product issuer before making a financial decision. Our disclosure documents and terms and conditions—including a Target Market Determination and IDPS Guide for Sharesies Australian customers—can be found on our relevant Australian or NZ website.

Investing involves risk. You might lose the money you start with. If you require financial advice, you should consider speaking with a qualified financial advisor. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

Appearance on Shared Lunch is not an endorsement by Sharesies of the views of the presenters, guests, or the entities they represent. Their views are their own.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Juno Koto. Welcome to Shared Lunch. I'm Garth Bray. With all of the hype around AI and tech stocks, with all of that building up, maybe now is a perfect time to get a realistic take from someone who's been in the market long enough to remember other times when it was a little frotty to know the difference between a bargain and a bubble. That person is Scott Phillips

from the Motley Fall in Australia legendary stockpicker. But before we hear from Scott has some important information that you should always consider an investing.

Speaker 2

Investing involves the risk you might lose the money you start with. We recommend talking to a licensed financial advisor. We also recommend reading product disclosure documents before deciding to invest. Everything you're about to see and here is current at the time of recording.

Speaker 1

Hi, Scott good A, thanks for having me on Shared Lunch. Look, we've just had a US federal reserve rate cuts, first one in nine months, like waiting for baby to be born, as true would tell us that after that length of time between changes and the policy rate in the U is the price of money that will typically see a bit of a bounce in this in the s and P five hundred the market and so on, and that's already to record a high, right, So how is this not a bubble?

Speaker 3

How have you got? Look, let's go with the rate cuts first, to come back to the bubble. The thing about rate cuts are any economic indicators, is the market tends to only react when it doesn't expect what happens. Jerome Power, the US Federal Reserve Chair, had written this almost in blood, and so we will cut rates, and so it was no surprise to the market that had happened. So part of what you're talking about about that increase on the back of rates is true. But I think

someone's already happened. That idea of market anticipating the announcement, and that's why we saw almost no move on the day, was because it was already built into share prices. That being said, your question about the bubble is a really good one, and I'm going to try and separate out a record high from a bubble, because the market always hits record highs. It's the story of the last century plus.

On the ASX, the New Zealand stocking chains, the US markets, we hit new highs all the time, because capitalism finds ways to solve new and old problems. And so that process, that literally the creative destruction that we talk about all the time, is what happens, whether that's a new way of doing something or a brand new thing. Think about

the iPhone that's now not even still twenty years old. Now, think about any technology before or after that period of time that makes us more productive, makes us happier, makes us smarter, makes us richer. Those things happen anyway, and so what's really really important to know upfront is a bubble is sometimes absolutely a bubble. More often than not, a record high is simply the last high when we

get to the next one. And we have set record highs for as I said, literally decades, more than a century. We've gone to new highs and new highs, and new highs and new highs because of that credit destruction, because human ingenuity, human activity continues to advance. So differentiating between a record high and a bubble not easy, but that is the job of the investor, particularly right now when we are, as you say, at those record highs.

Speaker 4

So I guess I think I read somewhere else that there've been studies of when there are these rate cuts, when there's been some time, and one of them sort of said, look, you know the last twenty two times has happened.

Speaker 1

The market was high twelve months later. Well, you're sort of saying, duh, it would have been higher twelve months later probably in any case, because it just keeps going up.

Speaker 3

Well, we're both right, it would have gone up anyway probably. I mean, twelve months is too short to say absolutely, but over any five year period, very very very rare. You don't have a higher point at the end of the five years than before it. So yeah, to your point, would have gone up there in a bubble and exuberance. By the way, so markets always overshoot, over shooting the upside,

they overshooting the downside. Just what they do because humans a human And for your viewers, remembering that is so incredibly important. I wrote to our readers literally only today as we're recording this, I wrote to them and said, be mindful of the fact that sometimes the market is just irrational and you've just got to deal with it. You can't time the market. Now you can see potentially bubbles, you can potentially see the overreactions on the downside, I've

spoken before on Shared Lunch about the COVID crash. Thirty eight percent in a month and four days now, I was buying right through, and I actually think I bought roughly at the bottom because I knew it was the bottom. By the way, I'm not that smart and I'm not that clever, But I bought at the bottom. Why Because I kept buying because I looked at it and thought, hang on, it is the future of our planet. Really, thirty eight percent worse than it was thirty five days ago,

of course not, it was a massive overreaction. So, yes, markets go higher over time. Yes, rate cuts make assets worth more. The maths of asset pricing we won't go in, I promise, but your viewers will have discounted cash flows or net present values. We love three letter acronyms, right tla's. So the reality is, when intro it's go down, assets are worth more. They just are. So you should see prices increase. By the way, then when rates go up,

assets are worthless. That's also true. But be careful about cycles within that longer time story. At what point in the last one hundred and seven ten years has been a bad time to buy shares well. Between then and now, the price has never been higher. Almost by definition, it's never been a bad time to buy shares. If you've got to sell them and own them today, you've done. You've bought up a cheaper prices, at least in terms of the market indexes. So that's the long term story.

It doesn't mean they don't fluctuate in the meantime.

Speaker 1

It might have been a bad time to sell them though.

Speaker 3

Yeah, yes, absolutely, buying when things are too high, be really, really careful. I'm an optimist. I'm a diet in the will optimist, but i have to say I'm very I'm much happier being an optimistic wheneveryonel is a pessimistic middle of April twenty twenty, I am like, you know what, this feels awful, but I know things will get better because that always does. So I'm happy to be the optis.

But everyone else is running around like chicken little when everybody else saying, come in, the water's fine, come in, fill your boots. You know this will let stop. This goes on forever, this is the new normal, all that kind of stuff. I'm still optimistic, but I'm less key to sort of throw my lodding with everybody else, I'm like, oh, I think the future is better than it is now, But I reckon you guys getting a bit carried away.

That's kind of the That's the skill of the art over time, is trying to delineate between those two ideas.

Speaker 1

It's hard, though, right because I mean so much coverage around just a couple of key stocks that sort of spring to mind here for me, like a video obviously. But I think this week they the Chinese said to some of their companies, you can't buy their chips anymore. Boom, three percent drop on the sheer value. Oh we're buying

some intel. Boom, We're back up again. This is a stop that's training it more than a fifty times multiple, right, you know you're saying that it's you know, you're gonna pay fifty times its earnings pretty much to have a piece of this action that seems like an astonishing valuation. Yet people are going for it.

Speaker 3

Yeah. So, and that's why I wanted to. I want to ditinguish point the market and individual companies. Right when the markets sky high, there's still stuff to buy. When the market's bombed out. Not everything's going to recover. Right, the remmons are bombed out during the bottom of COVID and then we broke an Australian company called Mosaic Brands, great example of that. Right we had the shutdowns, the lockdowns and all that kind of stuff. When the lockdown stop,

everything else recovered. Mosaic Brands has died. Absolutely was just literally died as a company went bankrupt. So just because the market's low and everything will go up, just because some companies are in arguably bubble territory, I'll get doing VideA in a second. Don I'm not saying everything's worth buying. As that exuberance, has that optimism. As that confidence continues to flow through, it's pushed some companies up to a price or I'm like, all right, well I like the company,

but dude, no, I'm not paying that price. I'm not trying to time the market. I'm not saying, oh, well, I know what's happening, this is the top, and I know that in months time's going to be lower, a year soon's going to be I have no idea, absolutely no idea. All I can do is try and objectively value the companies that I want to buy or that I own and then workout of that which ones do I buy? What do I own that I should sell.

There is absolutely a future in which we look back, can go, oh man, a video is cheap than twenty twenty five, and before people scoff at that, I'm gonna go back ironshirs An Amazon doesn't matter, but I should disclose it so your viewers. No. Back in two thousand and two, two thousand and eight, Back in ninety nine, by the way, barrens the I Think was well Fortune, one of the US business magazines led with Amazon dot Bomb.

Right Think had Amazon today versus twenty six years ago when it was Amazon dot bomb allegedly was it No, it'll doesn't look expensive yet you bet a thousand times earnings at one point, Like, seriously, who pays that? Now. I'm not saying video is Amazon. I'm not saying Amazon's video. What I'm saying is there were times when stuff looked really expensive and it's absolutely worth paying. If you'd have paid a thousand times earnings on Amazon at ten bucks

then out three hundred bucks a share. So you know, I'm not saying no by stuff that looks expensive. But to your point, when stuff is that expensive in video is the most and by the way, Amazon was still tiny at that point, right, thousand times earnings, but small in video is fifty times earnings and huge, Probably the most available company in the US stock market, if not pretty close at the moment at that point. Fifty times earnings for the most valuable company in the world. That's

asking a lot. That's all of a sudden saying, hang on, guys, this thing's got to grow at massive rates just to justify the current price. Let alone get gains from this price. Right, I'll shot up at a second. Let's tusk another question, but really quickly. The job of the investor is not to be right or wrong. Sounds silly, right, The job of the investor is not to be right. Why Because you can't know in advance. My crystal ball's broken. Your

crystal ball's broken. Everybody watching. If you think your crystal ball's working, go and check yourself in somewhere. It's not. I promise you. You don't know what the future holds. What you can do, what you should do as an investor is work on probabilities. Right, In other words, what is the risk of a downside? What is the chance of the upside. And when you do that, you're looking at MEDEO at fifty times earnings to say, well, is

there some circumstances in which it's worth today's price? Yes? Absolutely? How probable is that outcome? Relative too, maybe it's not worth today's price. How probable is that outcome? I look at that and go I can absolutely make a case for it being worth today. AI becomes massively, massively bigger. No one ever comes up with a chip that rivals in video. There's a chip shortage for the next twenty five years. In video can set its own prices and

it goes to the moon. That's very very very possible, very possible. Right, Maybe the hour of revolution doesn't grow quite as quickly as we think. Maybe venture capitalists run out of money. Maybe we talked about rates they go back up. We saw when rates started to go back up after COVID a whole lot of Australian businesses went broke. The one hour grocery delivery mobs, that was four or five of them at one point. They all went broke because the venture capital money dried up. Because all of

a sudden money was worth something again. And you've got as an investor say, what are the odds that I'm right? And if I am right, what am I going to get? What are the odds that I'm wrong? And if I am wrong, how much do I lose? Put those together and say, now do I really want to buy in video? Or if I own it, do I want to hold it? And probability is the investor's friend if you really think it through and try and be as rational as you can to work out what you should buy and what you should pay.

Speaker 1

Do you when you're working that out, can you give us some insight into what level is enough for you? Like I've heard there are some people that say, I'll work valuation and when it gets to about ninety percent or eighty percent or ninety five, that's when I'm out. I'll happily that money on the table and be wrong, because more often than not, I'll be out in time. Do you I mean, does it vary from case case or do you have a rule you follow?

Speaker 3

So I'm an investor who value is quality first and foremost, And one of the rules I try and live by is I'm slow to buy, but even slower to sell. Right now, what does that mean? Slow to buy means I want to make sure that I feel really, really really good about what I'm buying, both from a quality

and a price perspective. And if I've done that work properly, then i want to be even slower to sell, because if I've analyzed them and I took about when I sell at different prices, if I've got a quality business, I'm going to let that go really, really, really reluctantly. Right war On Buffet says, it's better to pay a fair price for a wonderful business than a wonderful price for our fair business. So if I've got a wonderful business in my back pocket, in my portfolio, I'm going

to let that go really reluctantly. I'll say one of the business this is two of the businesses we sold from out for our members or recommended they sell, got to price earnings ratios of eighty and ninety times before we recommended they sell right now, which is extraordinarily high. Why do we not pull the trigger earlier? Because we kind of went, well, the great business, I really really don't want to sell us I have to, and then we went well, okay, now I'm out. So do we

answer your question. I'm not a value I'm not a capital V value investor, nor am I a capital G growth investor. I think the distinction is really unhelpful. Frankly, people out there can do their own thing, but for me, it's not very helpful. So you asked the question. For me, it's probably one hundred and twenty one hundred and thirty percent of the value is where I sell. And someone said, well, why would you sell? Why would you wait for more

than it's worth to sell? Two things. One back quality, and that's competitive advantage of the business, the quality of management, all the things that we talked about that another day, about what quality investing looks like. So back quality. Secondly, I don't want to be so arrogant as to believe my calculation of value is so incredibly precise that I know for sure arrogance and ego is the investor's absolute enemy, right, So the humility I try to bring to it is

I think this is roughly right. But all of the sumps I have to put in the discount rate, the growth rates, the terminal values. Again we're talking about discount of cash flows here, really boring on video format. But all of that stuff is assumption laid on assumption. If I change a couple those numbers a little bit, I can justify paying fifty percent more or fifty percent less for the same company. Right, So that should tell you that this is a really, really really inexact science. It's

an inexact art. It's a it's a guess, it's a it's a rough yardstick. So for me, I buy hopefully well, if I've bought well, I want to be slow to sell, and I want to be really really humble about how likely I am to be exactly right, and then intrinsic value. And if that's the case, let it have some rope, and then yes, sell. Now have I held stuff too long in hindsight, absolutely yes. But if I added up every company I've held for too long and compare that

against every company I sold too early, I'm still behind. Right. Great example, I'll rub my nose my own problems. Domino's way back in the day went from we bought recommended, don't members that eight bucks? I think I went about thirteen bucks, right, I thought, oh may at sixty percent gain. It was a couple of years. I'm a genius, but yess, looking expense, how I better get out? It went from thirteen two Hold your breath one hundred and forty dollars. Right,

I missed a tenfold gain. I could have ten other companies go to zero, and I still would have been ahead if I'd held Dominoes. Don't be too quick to sell. But if you own quality and don't get caught up with your own hubis and your own kind of you. I've picked the stock and it's gone up, so I'm a genius. I'm gonnalet it keep going up. Be real

with yourself, but don't don't don't. There's a great thought saying about watering your weeds and cutting your flowers right, don't cut your flowers to a let a bloom at a time. Cut them and put them into ours, for sure, but give it a little bit of time.

Speaker 1

So this sounds to me a wee bit like it's also bubble protection, getting back to what we were starting to talk about there. If you're following that kind of a strategy, you'd feel pretty confident that you're you're going to miss the bubble. You're not going to get caught up in the exuberance you Anything that's rising is rising because you can see a fundamental reason for it rather than just the exuberance.

Speaker 3

Am I getting close hundred percent? The other thing I will say for what it's worth is I think the bubble label it's worth being aware of. But it can be a little bit unhelpful because then we argue about is it isn't a bubble? I don't know. All I know is it's worth more than I think it should be. And that's enough to me. I don't have to say bubble tick. I just say, would I pay that price now? No? Where in the world do I really want to hold it at this price?

Speaker 1

No?

Speaker 3

Maybe it goes up, maybe goes out. I don't know. What I do know is probabilistically, we started talking about a lot's got to go right and nothing can go wrong. That's not a good bet. So at that point you take some money off the table. That is bubble protection, as you say, because I'm not saying, well, ever, it's going up, I'll keep holding it. Or the crowd must be right, so I guess I should keep holding the shares. Or you know, everyone's excited about it. I guess they

must know something I don't. Don't try and keep up with the Joneses. Don't take money from your don't take tips for your taxi driver, don't list your brother in law who's getting rich owning something that no one else wants to own. Because, as you say, we've been through it. The dot com boom and bust was a great, great, great example. Another quick example Warren Buffett that the patron saying of investors way back in ninety nine, spoke about

magazine articles. A great article you can still find on the internet called What's Wrong Warren? And the idea was Warren Buffets missing out on this boom, and everyone saying, oh, Buffet's lost and it's all over. What does he know? His old fashioned twenty six years later, still on top, still doing his thing, still a very very very good investor. What was wrong? He saw the bubble, he saw the

fact that nothing was wasn't worth buying. Everyone was saying, you're missing a Warren, Look all the price are going up. Why'd you're playing our game? He said, Well, I buy stuff where it's worth buying. I sell it when I want to sell. Its nothing to buy off, stay in cash. It's not difficult, it's not sexy, it's not fun. You don't get the headlines, you don't feel excited because I owned the new cool thing. But it's a nice way to make money.

Speaker 1

I guess people might have said the same thing about Larry Allison until about two weeks ago. Gosh, here's a guy who had a pretty successful company, and he tried to run a few America's Cup defenses as well. But so long, see you lad off the basis of one innings report basically saying, you know, we I think to read the priest. That's most of it supplying capacity to open. So that's a pretty strong one way bit. The market seems to love it. That seems to be pretty out

of whack. Surely if a stock can leap and deadly forty percent on one innings report.

Speaker 3

Great example, By the way, it was already up forty percent for the year to date, so up forty percent over the previous nine months eight months, and then up a another forty percent top of that on one earnings report. What a share price means, it's the value of every dollar worth of cash flow from now to eternity, discounted back to allow for the time value of money. And I know that's complex. I'm going to live it there.

Other than to say, which has got forty percent. What you're actually saying is the value of all of the future cash list from now to eternity, and they were an aggregate forty percent higher. Not this month, not this half, not this year, not the last five years, over the next five years, but from here to eternity, everything in total is gonna be forty percent more. And so if you don't do that, and that's not saying the the ownsults were great, very good earning, result, great announcement. All

things were good. But to imagine that is now permanently and to quivocally be higher forever from here can't be Again. I mentioned I mentioned a video. What if someone else enters that that cloud, you know, cloud race, whereas I'll take some share off Oracle, what happens to the share price? Then let's take Microsoft. Microsoft in two thousand fell in the dot com crash. It took fifteen years for the share price to get back to where it was pre dot com. It was a great business. It it went

on to even bigger and better things. It was a fantastic success story. But you can't pay just any price. There is such a thing as too high a price for even the very best business in the world, So making sure you're paying a good price for the company, even if you know the future is bright. If Oracle is much bigger in ten years time, is it forty percent bigger permanently, I don't know. Is that really worth

paying for? And do you want to take that bet given there is risk that maybe it's not back to probability. So be very very very careful getting caught up in the euphoria. That's the thing about bubbles. You ask about bubbles, I suppose the kiding to look out for is actually not so much the companies or the share price or

the result. It's the sentiment of the crowd when everybody else is excited about it, when you know the time is as I say, that a great story of the Great Depression, and I can't remember who it's told of, and apparently it's apocryphal anyway, But the idea was basically this particular you know, Titan of Wall Street, when you had the taxi driver pull him asides, I think you should buy these shares. He's like, oh, this feels bad. I'm going to sell now. I'm not saying you should

use that as the test you go with. Everyone's a shareholder these as everyone's an investor, but to be very careful when everyone's excited, when the tides all the way in, when euphoria is at its peak, what could possibly go wrong. Well, that's the time we'll be a little bit concerned. Now I will say, don't sell anything just because don't try and time the market. A bubble can go on much

longer than you think it can. Even if it is a bubble now, it could have got fifty percent down twenty percent, in which case it'll should be thirty percent higher than it is now. So don't try and trade the bubble. Don't try and time the market. But when you're buying and selling, think about what you own, think about how good the future is probabilistically, think about and how much you're paying for that future. And we're going if it's a reasonable price. I mention we've sold half

a dozen companies we have. We've kept a heap more because we actually think, despite some of the excitement in the market, these businesses are likely to go on beating the market over the long term, despite what's going on right now. So got to kind of keep both those things in mind at the same time. It's not easy, but that's the skill you need to develop as an investor.

Speaker 1

It sounds like you and the Motley Full community either classic active investors. You are really getting in there into the weeds. You're looking closely at what each company's performing. We've seen obviously a trend towards automatic diversity. Is the word I'm looking for here products like ETFs. I mean, is that is that reducing the risk or would you say there's some sort of concentration risk building up there that people need to be careful of there when they're buying those kinds of products.

Speaker 3

Now, I love passive ETFs. I'm an active investor, JUSTYB a stockpicker. I don't mean active, by the way. It's actively. There's active, right, I'm not an active trader. I don't buy sol By cell by Cell. I'm active in the sense that I'm trying to find companies I think we'll beat the index if I buy company X. I buy it so I think in five years time it'll be worth more and hopefully grow faster than the market. That's

my version of active. But I love passive investing. You see the fund man is out there, by the way, who say the ETFs are destroying the market, absolute rubbish, complete and other nonsense. Passive ETFs are wonderful, wonderful, wonderful things. Just they are right mean less business for me, so be it. Investors are much better off than they were because a massive range of passive ETFs are available. A couple things to answer your question. Firstly, not all ETFs

are the same. Now your viewers know that I really really really dislike thematic ETFs, not because individually some of them can't do well, but because they're sold as panaceas AI is going to be huge. Here's my AIETF.

Speaker 1

Even with the concentration that you're getting from Meg seven, I mean the Meg seven companies. Some of those companies are bigger than entire sectors. Now you know, I'm pretty sure if you edit up with the healthcare sector is or the you know, some parts of the industrials and you go to the see kind of are.

Speaker 3

So yes, absolutely when you ask about diversification in concentration. So I'm not saying don't pick individual socks. What I'm saying is ETFs are a great based reportfolio. And anyone who said to me is this enough? I say yes, absolutely? Do you think do I think you do? Better by picking stocks. Yes, absolutely, But is that enough if you're young enough, if you had regularly to a handful of diversified in next based ETFs, you'll retire very, very very

comfortably and be very happy you did. I have no doubt. If I can't make promise, I'm not allowed to, But I have no doubt you'll be very happy with what you did. Right. So back to your point about concentration. I wouldn't just own a US ETF, same as I wouldn't just own ASXTF, because we've got index floor banks and minors. But if I had a global ETF or a range of ETFs, you might an a SX three hundred, you might have a developing markets, you might have an

emerging developed markets. If you got that diversification by currency, by geography, by industry, then yeah, you start to put together a portfolio that it is diversified. Here's the other thing. When you buy an ETF, don't just put money in a ETF once and be done with it. If your dollar cost averaging adding regularly, maybe in hindsight we say, you know what, September twenty twenty five was a massive bubble. But if you've been adding monthly over the last year,

two years, five years, ten years. Add all that up. People say to me sometimes, oh, the mike hasn't recovered from the highs of twenty two thousand and seven, or it's not as high as it was in whatever. If you'd only bought chairs on that day, maybe I'll talk to you about it. But if you did, you are the unluckiest person in the world. If you'd have been buying every month for the three years before and the three years after, you are up massively on that point.

So is it diverse fied? Yes, If you buy one ETF for one index and you buy it once, you're absolutely rolling the dice. I still think you'll do very well, by the way, but maybe not as well if the market was lower. If you're adding regularly to a range of ETFs and you're adding to that regularly every payday or every month or every quarter over five, ten, fifteen years,

I mean, think about it. If you do it every month fifteen years, what's that If you've made one hundred and eighty different transactions over that period of time, have you bought one of the is going to be at a bubble? Probably one of those is probably going to be at an absolute low low, most somewhere in between. But overall, I go back to the Vanguard index chart. I know your viewers have seen it a million times. Google Vanguard indext chart. If you do know what I'm

talking about. Yes, you might have brought it two thousand and seven at the peak, then you're brought in two thousand and nine at the trough. You might have brought it ninety ninety nine at the peak, and then at two thousand and one in the trough. You're probably bought in twenty twenty March twenty twenty at the peak, and then again in April twenty twenty in the trough. And where are we at record highs? Sometimes you'll buy at

high prices, sometimes at low prices. I'd love to know which ones will which side can not do it, But you can only do that in hindsight. And in hindsight, by the way, where a record highs every point before that was worth buying shares.

Speaker 1

That you touch on an important point about regularity, And I think I know the people are always looking for a comparison or a meter four, and people talk about it, the Marathione approach. You know you're trying to. But if you've ever actually done any I don't know if you've done any running. I've done a little bit in my time. The hardest thing is just pulling on the shoes and getting up and doing it three or four or five times a week and sticking with that. And that's the

bit that pays off almost more than anything else. So that is quite a crucial part, isn't it. It's just getting that kind of regular habit built in so that you're in that market.

Speaker 3

Can I go one step before above that? Actually putting the shoes on five times a week is really really hard. I absolutely feel that pain. Investing regular is even easier than that. I can decide to invest to put the shoes on, I've still got to put the shoes on. If I decide I want to invest regularly, and I tell my payoffice, my payroll manager, or my bank please do this for me on this date, I don't have to pull on the shoes. Someone else puts the shoes on for me.

And that is what's beautiful about pre commitment and automation. You automate that process so that if you've got to company and allows it, you tell you payroll manager, please put nine percent of my pay into my savings account. Please put ten percent of my pay in my investing account, and then on payday just happens. You don't have to pull metaphorical shoes on. But that's the beauty of pre commitment automation is you're a million percent right. You can

actually get out of your own way. And now if you pay all office won't do it. Tell you bank on, I get paid on the fifteenth of the month, or every two weeks or every week or whatever it is. On those days, please take X dollars out of my savings account and move it to my investing account. And as long as you do that, and let it happen, by the way, you don't miss it because it's never there.

It happens automatically every time you get paid. Go well, I really want to go and buy a pair of jeans, or go out for dinner, or buy address or buy a computer or do whatever your thing is. You've got to choose to take that money out, put over there and IDENTI if I want to next, I'll do it next month, next month. If it does it automatically before you even get to it, that's just beautiful. And you can absolutely make it happen. It's why superannuation for Australians

particularly is important because that happens to us. Literally the government says you can't have it, bad luck, twelve cent of your payer go straight over there. So those kind of forced savings or automated savings, it might suck at the time you might want the money to buy X, Y and Z. I have not heard a single person in Australia say, gee, unhappy the government, maybe save my superannuation.

Never ever, ever have I heard anyone say that. They're always like, I hate it at the time, but cheum And that's a really nice lesson.

Speaker 1

It sounds like a great place to leave it, especially if you want to go and pull your sues on now Scott and being out there and yet I really should do that, Scott, vertus from them not befoul. Thank you so much for giving us so much your time and your wisdom time in the market and you've shared it with us today. And thanks everybody else for listening

and watching along with us. We'd love to know what you thought of that and who we should be talking to next for us Kuma to that shared lunch for this week

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