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This year, in terms of the IOD, it's just been sitting there in neutral. We've been just watching it, seeing if there's anything developing at the moment. There's a slight hint that it's looking like it could go a little bit negative IOD, which would actually increase our chances of some rainfall, but similar to the Pacific Ocean in the Indian Ocean, that is purely just based on a temperature difference between the Horn of Africa and the waters off
the coast of Sumatra. Again, like the El Nino and La Nina patterns to develop, it's not just the sea surface temperatures that we need there to be in a certain pattern. We also need the trade winds, pressure patterns and the cloudiness also to come to the party there. And that's also not really happening at this point of time either.
Welcome back to Shared Solutions by BCG. I'm Janine Batters in the second episode of our series planning for prosperity, I'm talking with our resident climate specialist, Kate Finger, and I'm going to be asking you, what is going on with these climate predictions. Welcome, Kate.
Thanks, Janine.
So I won't get Kate to introduce herself because we actually have a whole episode dedicated to meet Kate. So if you want to jump back and listen to that, by all means go do that. But we are going to jump straight in, Kate. So we've been experiencing some warmer weather. We haven't got a lot of rain yet. We've been hearing that it's supposed to be a wet spring. The same thing happened last year. They were talking El Nino. No. So what's going on?
That is a jolly good question. And there is. Whilst it doesn't look like there's much going on, there's actually a lot going on climate wise. It's just not quite eventuating as to how we might be wishing it is.
So there must be a reason, an underlying reason, Kate, why we keep hearing, particularly in the media, that it's going to be a wetter spring and it really hurts at the moment.
Yeah. So Janine, there's a couple of things going on there. So the media is absolutely sensationalizing the climate forecasts and predictions. Their models are doing their runs. They're coming to a consensus. A cluster of them are suggesting that there is a potential for a La Nina to develop. The media latches on to that headline, and then the next thing, it's plastered around all the newspapers and making all the news that we're going to get a La Nina in summer,
which is definitely possible. But there's also a lot going on with our climate that's also impacting what we're actually currently experiencing and likely to experience in the coming months as well. And it's the same thing that happened last year, too.
The forecasts were things were aligning looking like we're going to get an El Nino, but just because it's looking like an El Nino is going to develop and it and the criteria is met for it to be called an El Nino, it doesn't guarantee, it doesn't mean that it's things are going to be dry. Anything is possible. It's just in that particular instance last year with the El Nino, all the possibilities were on the table, the models were skewing it towards a higher increased chance of drier.
But there was that one little model run in the background there that was going, no, it's actually going to be wetter. And that's just what happened to eventuate in spring last year.
When we get these predictions, are you talking more probabilities rather than this is going to happen or not?
Yeah. So that's exactly right. Jeanine. We are talking these are more probabilities and giving us an idea that there's an increased chance or increased likelihood of something occurring, rather than when a forecast or outlook is given. This is definitely what is going to happen. And that's because how the models work is they run off a heap of model runs that are then generated behind the scenes, and then the forecast is where the majority of those models lie.
So if you, for example, have 100 different model runs, and then in a year like this, there's an increased number of them suggesting a La Nina will develop. So
for example, let's put some numbers around that. There's 60 in the La Nina camp that is going to skew the forecast towards indicating there's an increased chance likelihood of a La Nina developing, but that's only 60 of the model runs, so there's another 30 in the background there that could be saying that it's likely to experience average conditions. And then there could be another ten in there saying
that conditions could actually be dry. And it just so happens that this year it's those ten that are right.
Spoken like a true scientist there, Kate. So really it's thinking about the language, the increased probability that we're going to get a wetter. So can you tell me at the moment what are the models saying now what is actually happening. Are we going to get a wetter spring.
Yes. What the models are actually saying now is that both the Enso that's our La Nina El Nino area and our IOD Indian Ocean Dipole, both of those climate drivers are currently in the neutral phase, so all possibilities are on the table. There is some cooling in the Nino 3.4 box in the Pacific Ocean when that area cools down, and once it hits a certain threshold, that is what triggers a La Nina to be announced as
a climate event officially underway. There is some activity in the ocean suggesting, and that's what a lot of the models are picking up on this cooling and going, oh look, there's some cooling there. There's potential that El Nino could develop. And they are suggesting that increased chances of one occurring towards the end of the year and into summer, but a lot more needs to occur for that to really
have much of an impact on our climate. And it's looking like if it does develop, it will be quite weak and short lived. When we're talking about models, we're talking not just about the access model that the bureau have, but also it gets compared to a range of international models as well. And there the general consensus of those is for an increased likelihood of above average rainfall into that late spring summer period. But we need the wind patterns to be going in the right direction to bring
moisture created up in the atmosphere across to mainland. Australia. We need the pressure patterns to be performing in the right way. So that those rain fronts can move across and deliver the rain. That is also something that's impacting our weather at the moment, and we also need the cloud patterns as well, to be able to have increased cloudiness, to be able to generate that rain.
So how are all those other things looking, Kate?
They are not looking like they want to come to the party this year. There's still opportunity for that to change, but at the moment they're not really showing up at all. So all the action is just in the ocean.
Okay. What I'm thinking is normally I read your climate section in the technical bulletin. It's always very good. We normally start talking about the IOD in about July, and that's when you normally say that's when it's more likely to. We don't see anything before then isn't really accurate. Normally when we're talking about the IOD we're thinking spring. Great. We're going to get some rain early spring. But because it hasn't aligned yet, do you think that's playing a
role that it's delayed. Yeah.
In that autumn period, the climate drivers go through this reset phase, and that is one of the main reasons why they're not so accurate or good to be looking at, because they've done all their past year's activity. They're going back to neutral, and then they'll start ramping up and moving in a certain direction as the year progresses over that winter period that you're saying they're Janine, that is when we do start to see a bit more activity
in those regions. That gives us a bit more confidence in those forecasts to see where the ocean temperatures, wind patterns, pressure patterns, where they're all aligning. And that's what's helping to drive whether an IOD event develops or an El Nino La Nina event develops this year. In terms of the IOD, it's just been sitting there in neutral. We've been just watching it, seeing if there's anything developing at
the moment. There's a slight hint that it's looking like it could go a little bit negative IOD, which would actually increase our chances of some rainfall. But similar to the Pacific Ocean in the Indian Ocean, that is purely just based on a temperature difference between the Horn of Africa and the waters off the coast of Sumatra. Again, like the El Nino and La Nina patterns to develop, it's not just the sea surface temperatures that we need
there to be in a certain pattern. We also need the trade winds, pressure patterns and the cloudiness also to come to the party there. And that's also not really happening at this point of time either.
So in terms of the sea surface temperatures, I think I was reading that it's sitting at about I'm probably going to get this wrong, but about minus oh four or something. Is that right? And then but it has to reach minus seven and it has to sit there for a certain amount of time. Correct me Kate. Yeah.
So that's in the key indicator box for whether the Bom declares an El Nino or La Nina event to be underway is there's a threshold that we want the sea surface temperature anomalies to be having a difference by. And it is currently sitting around that -0.4. But we need it to get up to that -0.8 for it to be declared in La Nina and for.
A period of time.
And for a period of time as well. Yes. How long is that? Can't quite remember. Off the top of my head, I think for an IOD, it needs around that eight week period to be above the threshold for it to be announced.
Okay, so even though it might be creeping towards it, it's going to have to sit there for a while for it to even be declared. So we've probably got another what how many weeks?
Yeah, a few, but we're talking a lot about meeting thresholds and things being declared. But we're in sort of a bit of unchartered territory at the moment with climate change, and that's having quite a big impact on sea surface temperatures around the globe. The sea is each year hearing reports that it's just been in. Overall temperatures are just constantly increasing. So in terms of all of the thresholds and things that we're using, they're not necessarily being super
helpful because temperatures are higher year on year. In fact, we're trying to target that negative point eight of a temperature difference actually might not be triggering anymore for El Nino or La Nina event. The thresholds might actually be smaller, so even if we don't get there, it still doesn't mean that it's not going to be influencing our climate and rainfall patterns.
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sizes and prices. It's becoming more unreliable, would you say?
I think it's definitely making it very hard for anyone involved in climate forecasting and working with the models they work off of past events that helped shape their current predictions and go off. What's happened in the past and this is what the wave is looking like and things like that. But at the moment, unchartered territory with some of the temperatures that we are experiencing. And so as we have seen very much this year, they are really
actually struggling to provide forecasts. But the very nature of climate forecasts is because they're based on probability. Definitely should not be taking them as gospel. You can't go that. Oh, the forecast was saying it was going to be wet for this month and we didn't get it. They got it wrong. You just can't do that because they're just based off probabilities.
What advice would you give farmers now? And probably even moving into next year's planning, taking into account these predictions.
I would definitely keep looking at your the apps that you're looking at for your weather forecasting, the bureau's website for the longer term range outlooks, and whatever else you use information wise to get your climate outlooks for the season ahead. Yes. They're not always right, but that's the
nature of them. They are based on probabilities. There can be really good for getting an a bit of a feel or a flair for where the season's going to potentially end up, so they can help with if you have in the back of your mind, help with logistics and planning for, oh, it could end up this way. So maybe I'll just keep that in my thought process.
But definitely don't take them as gospel and go that they said it's going to be a La Nina and spring by everything that I need to be able to manage my disease and stock up on urea, because it's going to be wet. That is not how you should be using climate forecasts at all.
So hedge your bets, but maybe swing them a little bit more in one way with the predictions.
Yes, and keep refining that to as you go along. So don't make that decision in January. I know that can be hard for some things which you might need to forward purchase, but even if you just got that little bit extra on hand, if that's what the forecast is looking like to help you, if it does eventuate because it's better to be prepared rather than unprepared.
Okay. Keeping what you've said in mind, what information is available now that will help us with our planning, we might not use it solely for our planning, as you say, but what are they saying? Is it going to be warmer? Is it going to be wetter? What can we use to help us plan?
Well, I think as how the season's progressed now, I think we can probably rule out it being wetter for any benefit to the harvest season at the moment. Although if the La Nina event does come to fruition and it does actually bring some increased rainfall, we could experience a few little interruptions over that harvest period of time. But for the moment, I think you're pretty good to bet on. All options are on the table still, but
it's looking very unlikely to be wet. Yes. Year on year data has been showing that our maximum daytime temperatures are constantly increasing. And interestingly, this year, though, we have been having some quite below average minimum temperatures.
I was going to ask you about that, Kate, because it always feels like I don't know, it always feels like it. Maybe it's just that the frosts hurt us more when it's dry. Because what we did think we had, we don't anymore. Is there a correlation between dry years and frost?
There is, because frost. For frosty conditions, you need those clear night skies for the cool temperatures to really come down and settle in on the surface. When you've got more rainfall around, you've got more cloud cover, which traps the warmth into the Earth's surface. And so you're less likely to see those frost events.
You can just see, though, that there is a lot of pressure on climate forecasting, isn't there to have the answers? Talk to me about pressure systems. Yeah.
So this year it's I would say weather wise, it's probably been the year of the high pressure system. It's had a major impact on our rainfall pretty much the whole growing season really. The reason why there's been rain on the forecast, we can see it there like a week, two weeks out and then it just disappears. And that's just because we are then being impacted by the weather systems. And it's just high pressure that's been dominating it, blocking any of those potential rain fronts getting to us.
I feel like you've just hit the nail on the head, Kate, because I just feel like that's just been this year. Oh, yeah, there's some rain coming now. There's not. Oh yeah, there's some rain coming. And that's particularly we've seen that particularly in spring I think, which has hurt a lot. Do we know when these high pressure systems are about.
Talking about high pressure systems are more of a weather related pattern. And so to be able to forecast those things, you've got 7 to 14 day window and you can't really go too much beyond that.
So when the people that are saying next Tuesday we're going to get 1 to 5 mil, are they taking into account these high pressure systems that end up pushing it away or keeping it away?
So when they're making that a week out, they yes, will have taken in the current pressure patterns at the time and looking at where they're likely to go. And then as the days develop and the pressure patterns have their own little mind and think of what they're going to do, they then change the forecast up because they've moved in a different direction, or they've strengthened over here. And then that's when we start to see that rain this year particularly disappear.
So it's probably not the forecasters that we should be cross with. It should be the weather gods, the pressure systems. They seem like they're causing a lot of trouble.
They are this year.
Okay, that makes sense. Can you tell me anything else that's been having an effect this year?
Probably the two big ones have been the high pressure that's dominating our weather patterns over this whole growing season and the impact of climate change, and just how that's not just impacting the way the forecasts are picking up on the different signs and signals as to what likely climate drivers are going to be doing, but also just
their overall impact on our climate and weather patterns. We are in this uncharted territory, and the scientists are doing a great job trying to understand and go through the modeling and work out what impact is this having, why things aren't quite behaving as we expect, but it will be a slow process.
Well, it's really hard, isn't it, because models are based on years and if this is new territory, then we can't really model on it. Yeah, so that's the tricky bit there.
Something that's been actually interesting this year is I know some people give the bomb a bit of a bad rap, but if you've actually been looking at the model forecast for the bomb this year in comparison to the other international models, they've actually been pretty good on the forecast. So they were saying neutral. And so for pretty much this whole year, and that's what's actually been happening, where more of the international ones have been dipping down into
that La Nina territory. And yeah, the Bom model has picked up that. No, I don't think that's actually going to happen. And so far it's actually not.
But that doesn't sound newspapers does it. No it.
Doesn't. And that is why. Would not make a very catchy headline at all. No it.
Wouldn't. So I suppose that's something to factor in there, and probably something to keep in mind if you are hearing these things or reading these things, to just check back with what the bomb's predicting.
Yeah, they've got some great communications out, not just on their website, but if you subscribe to their email list as well. And just putting out the the basic facts of where things are at.
I'll link to those in the show notes. Was there anything else, Kate, you think our listeners might be interested in knowing or would help them plan?
I don't think so. It's just it's been a really tough year, farming wise, to have forecasts, a potential likely outcome over spring, and then it's just not eventuating at all. And being pretty frustrated with how things have turned out. And I guess the positive spin is that if we do get some moisture, whilst it might not be good for this year, maybe we'll be able to top up our soil moisture levels. So next year, with whatever eventuates there, we might be able to recoup a little bit.
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